Sunday, June 28, 2015

JUDGEMENT DAY!

Probably not with this latest Kabuki Theater from Greece, which is going to play out this week. Look for Greece to stay in the Euro and look for the referendum to pass for staying in the Euro. Nevertheless its another Greece default. After they close the banks for a week on the Social Society of Greece, there will be a wave of votes for the Eurodaddy. The Dow will rally and the shorts will get squeezed like an over-ripe olive. You won't believe the rejoicing on CNBS when Greece is saved in a week, but before the "save" there will be a very nice beta-test (ala Cyprus) on bail-ins and other "extraction measures" that have been dreamed up for the coming Day of Reckoning. Oh rest assured this will most likely not be it this week, but it is something you should be paying attention to. 

More interesting to me is China and the bubble they've created and how that plays into the end-game. How long will China sit on the sidelines and let the US dictate monetary policy before they exercise their own prowess and pull the plug on dollar hegemony? They're very patient and they haven't accumulated 9600 tons of gold over the past 6 years for nothing. Their timetable could also be nearing and endgame. 

This week should make a lot of us very nervous, but I think you still have time to make preparations and observe the takedown of a once proud democracy. There are changes taking place here as I have always predicted would be made. They've been incremental but as the end game approaches I want to say just how fascinating this time has been and how much I appreciate all of your input. gl










Wednesday, June 24, 2015

NO ONE COULD HAVE SEEN IT COMING

But it did come. And it will come again. This time the bubble has been blown for over 60 years and the pop will echo for decades, but then you know it'll be papered over like the 2008-09 "pop" was and like it is as you read this piece now. Its being "handled". Back in the '29 crash headlines daily read how the "market" was rebounding and how the economy was being "fixed". Well of course we know how that all worked out. Once CONfidence is lost, no amount of "papering" can ever put it back in the bottle. Only time and substantive changes in the public mood can heal that big of an open wound. 

Since the last Great Depression, the game has been refined. In fact the last "Dear Chairman" did a PhD dissertation on the Great Depression and how Monetary Policy could have prevented it. Of course he can fix our current Debt debacle. Oh wait.....wasn't he also the same "Dear Chairman" that testified in front of CONgress in 06 and 07 there was no housing bubble and as it began to break down in front of our eyes continued to assuage CONgress that there would be NO housing downturn and that IF there was it would be brief and quickly rebound. He was also the same "Dear Chairman" that stated categorically in 07 as we began the Great Recession that he saw NO recession on the horizon....not once but several times throughout 07. I don't know about you, but I feel better we're fixed now. Oh wait..........Wasn't he the same "Dear Chairman" that testified in front of CONgress in late 08 and 09 that "NO ONE" could have seen "this" coming. Even though Shiff, Shilling, Fleckenstein, and many many market experts warned of this for several years before it happened. It almost makes me wonder if he intentionally popped the "bubble".........but then maybe I'm giving him too much credit.

Well.....someone's preparing for something and whatever that "something" is I have a feeling that we're going to have an answer sooner rather than later. I'll take later but that bubble has a habit of just getting bigger with time and as we all know, it just takes a "pin prick" to pop a bubble and then of course there will be lines of people and different places with the same look on their faces and with the same answer. We never saw this coming. No one ever talked about this. How could this have happened? 









Saturday, June 20, 2015

THE FACES OF EVIL?


These Greek pensioners are going to be one of the many casualties of a very broken financial "experiment". As of this moment they still have a pulse, but if the Eurozone allows Greece to default this weekend (and they just may) then nature will take over and these faces will be one of the groups impacted by the coming tsunami of change. Of course, the groups that will benefit in Greece will be those that are currently suffering the most under the austerity imposed by the Troika, ie the tax-paying working/small business owners. Also be aware that many government workers currently sucking off the morass of EU imposed regulations will be impacted and change will not be accepted in Greece without profound pain. 

Therein lies the problem. How do you create change without pain. It cannot occur. Right now the Greeks are being slowly killed by the cancer of an debt that cannot be serviced. The economy is being slowly strangled as a multitude of malinvestments created by decades of socialism/monetarism weigh heavy upon their country.

Greece is being fought tooth and nail by the globalist for several important reasons. As an economy, its relatively small, but in its acceptance into the Eurozone an inordinate amount of derivatives were created based upon its Currency/debt swaps to open the door into the club. Now, nature is calling and nature's call will be obeyed. Maybe not this weekend, but that really is no longer the key issue. The ECB has done everything they can to "ring-fence" the derivative bomb created by Greece's "acceptance" into the Eurozone. So, even if Greece blows this weekend and I give it a 60/40 chance, I don't expect a bank domino collapse to begin. THAT will be contained/paper-overed for now at least. I wouldn't even be shocked if gold was smacked down next week, especially if the dollar strengthens. What I do expect is the accumulation of actual physical gold by non-Americans will accelerate. The public and sovereign nations outside the Western-banking system smell trouble ahead and know that Greece is now irreparably broken and the World debt bubble is going to pop.......its now as Nomi Prins has said its only a matter of when. Even CNBS cannot find anyone of stature to come on and spew their mantra that "all is well". 

Many of you feel "timing is everything" and have listened to the various predictions that have been linked here and debated here over the years and feel NOTHING is accurate and have concluded the PTB have indefinitely "fixed" the system or "ring-fenced" it and there power is so omnipotent that we will "muddle through". Good luck with that "ostrich in the sand" thought process. You're either cognitively impaired or "kidding" yourself. Zero interest rates.....a declining GDP......suicide demographics.......world wars........ completely corrupt governments and societies... all imply a day of reckoning will be coming. Timing may be what you focus on and it certainly would be nice to predict, but it really hasn't proven to be reliable in the current "walk to the precipice".  What you and I should be focused on is what the "transition/other side" will be like. 
I think a simplistic approach is the best ....."prepare for the worst" but maintain a "hope for the best" outcome.

I urge you to ask your friends and family simple questions such as "what would they do if their 70K/yr pension were cut by 80% in its purchasing power during the next couple of years. If that happened do they "have a back-up plan" or could their debt be serviced or could they just survive.  Do you think the Greek pensioners might be asking that question right now. I'll bet they are. Do you think anyone you ask that question to here will take you seriously? I doubt it. I'll bet you that 8 years ago no pensioner in Greece would take that question seriously. Just one more note.... our total debt/ person in the U.S. is even worse than Greece's. We were called "sheep" for a good reason.  gl







Thursday, June 11, 2015

ITS ALL NATURAL

Don't worry this is just CONtrails from high flying jets engaging in a multitude of high altitude routes going to a variety of destinations. They aren't chemtrails, those conspiratorial weather modification games played by the "government".  So get off your fear porn and take the blue pill with your chill pill, suck down a couple of highballs, blow a doobie and STFU!

Next thing you know you'll say that we're printing money out of thin air to buy our own government debt to keep a Ponzi going that runs the entire world through a network of 800 military bases in over 125 countries. Then you'll probably say that we are occupying our closest allies with major military bases because they've asked us to occupy their countries to protect them from......Russia?.....China....well surely from someone. Oy vey I know.......Terrorists! Like those Al CIA Da types that became Libyan freedom fighters then Syrian moderate rebels then ISIS then ISL then IS and now I'm not sure which terrorist are which. It almost seems designed to confuse me, but that couldn't be.

Maybe it is designed to confuse me, but if that's true then why do they have people like Joe Kiernen on Television. He's so ineffectual with his pedestrian attempts at propaganda that even my Father in law laughs at him. Maybe the believe that someone as simple and dogmatically backwards as Kiernen appeals to their target audience. I just don't see that unless their target audience are trolls and trogladites.  Set the bar low enough and the morons can just step over it. That way you can ask for a donation of 780 billion from them and tell them it'll save the "system" and they'll swallow it. 

Maybe Lincoln was wrong, you can fool all the trolls all the time. I remember one troll here telling anyone that would listen just how stupid gold is and I do have to agree gold isn't particularly smart but its probably not a bad insurance policy just in case this Ponzi doesn't work out for us, but it was his typical Kiernen logic that I remembered pointing out how buying the stock market and holding was such a great investment over this or that time period vs gold.  So I went back and looked at the 38% the SnP had gained since 2000 and that gold was up from $250 to $1180 and I realized that's 400%.  Wow....I thought.....why are people so gullible? Why would someone not see the value in the metal for at least a hedge if nothing else. Then I realized, there are just an awful lot of Joe Kiernens out there and you're never going to be able to change their minds. But at least there are a few people that are starting to realize that we are really nothing more than cannon fodder for Ponzi and the Kiernens are nothing but hollow vessels of  chicken excrement. gl see ya in awhile.












Saturday, June 6, 2015

GOLF AND BICYCLE CRASHES AND SUCH

What can you say? While Rome burns, we seem to go more insane. Great job numbers to celebrate Friday as 94 million working age Americans remain out of work. American people are  now referred to as "consumers". Hilsenrath chastises their lack of spending during the recovery in the Wall Street Journal. An ugly uprising to Hilsenrath's article arises in the comments regarding his article. 

The 90% is beginning to realize the "recovery" is not going to be coming their way. The celebration of the "Jobs report" on CNBS is chaotic somewhere between a funeral and a birthday.  Even Joe Kiernen's smirks seem confused.  A "bicycle" crash immobilizes John Kerry while in Europe. The President plays golf. Life appears normal as 94 million working age Americans disappear from the news. Hilsenrath laughs. 

A new wave of technology sweeps CNBS news Friday.....drones. Even the CNBS reporter demonstrates his own personal drone. A surge of  "optimism" gradually builds as the news day develops. Surely the drones can salvage the recovery. No "New Deal" in this recovery necessary. The 94 million will be lifted by drones. Even Art Cashin's  "700 million to sell" at the close is quickly covered and Bill Griffeth throws a kiss to the floor and rings the closing bell. It was another day into the "recovery".

Things seemed hollow. Money was still being printed, but interest rates couldn't be raised even 0.25% or the "recovery" could be jeopardized. Why? We have all these jobs. I guess the part time bartenders, waiters, and barristas just don't really count. At least a Picasso went for $100 million and over 100 million people are on government food assistance now. How can that be? We can't give our old people and savers 0.25% interest on their money but someone can spend a 100 million on a painting?

Capital controls now being implemented in various forms in Greece, Argentina, and even America, but we're in a recovery so why? I don't understand. Why is confidence so important for our recovery? CNBS talks constantly about it. I have a lot of paper in my wallet that is backed by it but I can't break a Benjamin at Starbucks anymore. How do I get change? I wonder if their tips are down with fewer George Washington's in my wallet. Capital controls are strange to me.


I went home to my gated community and all was well. All is well and life is good for me. I don't care.  gl





Sunday, May 31, 2015

THE CORRECTION

When, how much, and do you really care anymore? By now you've either figured it out or you won't until its way too late. That's the nature of the Bear. The rule of alternates, if applied indicate this Bear cycle move within the secular Bear that began in 2000 will be the longest and largest move. When Paul Singer, Ray Dalio, and Greenspan tell you the market is about to dump, you had better believe there is a problem. A BIG BIG problem. I doubt that any shorts in the market will collect once the Bear move begins in earnest. Perhaps at first you will be able to trade within the Bear, but volatility and necessity will apply capital controls within the market destroying your ability to collect. The market will wrest any bear profits once the "blood in the streets" becomes extreme. Strategic short squeeze plays may work for some of the most skilled traders, but most paper plays will be slaughtered.  

I don't intend to apply any shorts as I did in the 2008-09 Bear but IF I get fortunate and the miners manage to stage a nice move within the early stages of the Bear then I will accept some early profits and convert the paper to distressed hard assets at that point. It may be gold or silver or it may be real estate. You may wish to convert to a solar system or alternate home energy source such as Musk's new battery packs. 

On the run still and will be more engaged in 5 days. Best of luck to you and hope you're paying attention to what's going on under you own nose in your own country. gl

Sunday, May 24, 2015

RESET

What happens when 'the' Central Bank of all Central banks hosts the world's reserve currency games in your country of origin? The country that issues the world's reserve currency must run trade deficits or export it's inflation while maintaining "confidence" 
in the currency with inflation, at the same time.  

"The Triffin dilemma or paradox is the conflict of economic interests that arises between short-term domestic and long-term international objectives for countries whose currencies serve as global reserve currencies. This dilemma was first identified in the 1960s by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin, who pointed out that the country whose currency, being the global reserve currency, foreign nations wish to hold, must be willing to supply the world with an extra supply of its currency to fulfill world demand for these foreign exchange reserves, thus leading to a trade deficit."

In debt based economies, you must always have inflation to service the sovereign debt.

What happens when you repeal Depression Era legislation and replace it with moral hazard?
What happens when "they" are international and you aren't?
What happens when 2008 to 2015 you print 13 trillion and naked short certain markets and "make" others?
What happens when in the US 10 Thousand baby boomers retire every year for the next 20 years?
What happens when your debt increases 40 Thousand Dollars, a second?

From William White chief economist of the Bank of International Settlements.

"Beggar thy neighbor devaluations are spreading to every region. All the major 
central banks are stoking asset bubbles deliberately to put off the day of reckoning. 
This time emerging markets have been drawn into the quagmire as well, corrupted 
by the leakage from quantitative easing (QE) in the West. 
...
We are in a world which is dangerously anchored."

Federal? Reserve Open? Market meetings or the free market, who ya gonna trust?

"We believe that U.S. bank regulators have made substantive progress in establishing a credible framework to resolve a large, failing bank," said Robert Young at Moody's. "Rather than relying on public funds to bailout one of these institutions, we expect that bank holding company creditors will be bailed-in and thereby shoulder much of the burden to help recapitalize a failing bank." 


In October they're going to recalibrate the Special Drawing Rights.

Place your bets hehehe.

-Old Hickory




Sunday, April 13, 2014

PLANETARY IMPLOSION

Well maybe a little "popping first"…. as in bubble popping. Is this the long awaited for "correction"…or maybe the often predicted "collapse"?? I would suggest that at the very least this year will see some profound fear enter into the fiat's final stage. As many of you are aware all fiat currencies eventually will reach their final value…ZERO. The difference in our current predicament is HOW MANY currencies are involved at the same time in propping up the Western Block. If ANY of the Western countries fall the result will be a contagious collapse of epic proportions. Right now it is just a balancing act of controlled devaluations. Massive debt continues to build in the largest of the fiat ponzi culprits. Look at the East too. China and Japan have tremendous debt that is starting to stagger mathematicians. 

So what it boils down to is just how long can the "trust" continue between West and East. How long between the Developed nations and the Developing nations will real resources be traded for an increasingly worthless currency? Can you imagine holding hundreds of billions of dollars in reserve when the next round of printing hits the blocks? Do YOU have CONfidence that the mountain of dollars you've stored in your vaults will NOT be devalued 50% over a period of just two or three years? Maybe that is a reason that numerous swaps in other currencies other than the petrodollar is in play now. Maybe these countries believe that some other currencies make more sense….just in case. 

How does it play out? What will be the CONfidence breaker? What will tip the dominoes? Go ahead and play that game. Its fun and it will occupy a lot of your idle time. Or as I do …enjoy your time with your loved ones and quietly keep preparing, just in case the CON doesn't succeed…..because if the CON goes an awful lot of pain is coming…gl

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

I CAN'T BELIEVE YOU CAN'T SEE IT

Just another crazy citizen wondering what happened to the constitution and speaking about his concerns. Only this guy is a former Marine Colonel that fought in Iraq and understands exactly what the end game is. Will anyone listen? Will they care? Like he say's at the the end. You'll always find free cheese in a mouse trap.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

ECONOMIC HAIR TRIGGER

What happens when you have the largest economies all printing their own currencies in quantities that defy imagination to prevent a deflationary economic collapse? When does the sovereign interest of one of the super-powers over-ride the interest of the whole? In other words, what happens when someone with a hair trigger pulls off the first shot heard round the world?

Is it possible for countries with disparate national interest to maintain a technocratic alliance as the transfer of world domination slowly transfers from West to East? Can the mutual interests currency debasement outweigh the more selfish interest of accumulation of real assets for longer term national dominance as you print you fiat in ever increasing amounts? Look at this another way then, are you willing as a nation to allow your "beggar thy neighbor" to fill their coffers with loot such as real estate, iron ore, aluminum, copper, precious metals, rare metals, and oil, while you maintain your "steady as she goes" fiat printing?  Are your intelligence assets not telling you what is going on with your technocratic "alliance" partner? Sure they are. 

So what do you do? Do you continue the process? You just printed 8 Trillion this past year and you were lapped by your historic nemesis by 10 Trillion. You wanted to devalue your currency to try and extract yourself from decades (plural) stagnation and your "beggar thy neighbor" just plugged you in the behind by 10 Trillion and your currency has barely budged. Your nemesis loaded up on even more energy and commodities to insure their countries future and you plugged deflationary holes. They thumbed you in the eye when you embarked on some nationalistic island hopping and then one-upped you by declaring the entire sea was now owned by them as your Western technocratic super power stood by and sucked their thumb with "Lurch" issuing idle threats to further sand-kicking by your nemesis. 

This is a very tenuous alliance between super-powers that have ZERO love for one another and a history of animosity that has fed numerous bloody conflicts, yet this is what the balance of this faux recovery hinges on. I predict that you are going to see some very uncomfortable defaults taking place soon and for these defaults to be "covered" there will be some VERY severe sacrifices that one of these countries will be asked to make. That word "sacrifice" will begin to take on a new and very desperate meaning as the "global alliances" begin to feel the stress of a history of blood and conflict bearing pressure upon the technocratic leaders. Will it hold.....or will someone pull the trigger?