Saturday, April 30, 2016

WHERE'S THE FIRE??

Are you reading articles that are saying the Central Banks have exceeded their mandate with ZIRP, NIRP, QE, endles Bond Buying programs, purchasing Stock Futures , and maintaining endless Dollar Swap back door funding worldwide. Well if you live in my pathetic world you've probably noticed these articles abound recently. Not only do they now say the Central Banks have crossed the line but they are boxed into a corner and have NO ammunition.

I think what caught my attention was the attitude there was NO fire that needed these extraordinary measures and their manipulations of all of these markets amounted to only a bunch of Central Bankers dealing crack cocaine to the Wall Street addicts. Maybe so, but what I worry about is that may be over-simplifying the problem. You see......I think the fire is right in front of you and because we crossed the point of no return years ago, the bankers actually have no choice now. The idea of extend and pretend is much more important than many of us want to really believe it is.

So what is the fire? Its the system. The system you say? That's rather nebulous Kliguy. I've heard that before, right? Let's distill this to just SOME of the aspects of "the system". The "system" is composed of many parts. Hundreds of parts. Some of these parts are more critical than others but nevertheless all of these parts are important, at least to the "people" dependent upon these "parts".

Here is a part that I would say is "important". YOUR pension. Literally tens of millions of pensions.....virtually ALL PENSIONS...are dependent upon this "system" staying intact. You recently saw the collapse of the Central States Fund collapse with over 400,000 people in the Midwest impacted by a 40% reduction in their monthly checks and that is just the beginning. CSF is only a beta test. They picked a relatively medium sized pension in the Midwest to test, but they will be rolling this out Nationwide in a year or two....maybe sooner. This is a private pension fund holder. Let's look at the State pensioners and the large School teachers funds and municipality pensioners. They ALL depend upon the Market price and the BOND prices with Zero Interest rates. You get even a whiff of real inflation (greater than 3%) with elevating Bond prices and this DEBT HOUSE OF CARDS will run for the leveraged back door so fast your head will spin. NO ONE WILL GET OUT THAT DOOR .......NO ONE!! Even if you get out that door, you'll be slaughtered by the crowd behind you with NOTHING in their hands but pitchforks.

Egon Von Greyerz:


Pensions – The Ticking Time Bomb
But the biggest disaster is hitting the pension sector. Virtually all pension funds are seriously underfunded, especially if they applied realistic rates of return. Pension funds hold three principal investments, stocks, bonds and property. These are all bubble assets inflated by the credit explosion that central banks have orchestrated.
As these assets implode, there will be no pensions left for anybody. People who are about to retire in coming years have no understanding of the fate that is going to hit them. They will receive no pension or a pension that is worthless. As the economy deteriorates, the unemployment rate will also rise dramatically. The combination of retirees with no pension and a high percentage of the population without a job will lead to severe human disasters around the world. Governments will of course print unlimited amounts of money but this will have no effect as manufactured money can never create wealth. 

This is all the result of central banks interfering in the natural cycles of the economy by financial repression and thus interfering with nature’s law. So instead of having minor booms and busts, the manipulation of markets and the economy creates the most massive super booms and busts. It is of course not the first time it happens in history and it will continue to happen. It will sadly lead to a period of very difficult adjustments and misery for current generations and possibly even future ones

I really didn't even touch on the DOLLAR as the world's reserve currency. That "part" is too difficult for the average peep to grasp. They don't even want to think that is possible to take down....but they will. Its days are numbered and when that "whiff" of inflation hits, you can damn well bet it will because the Central Banks have said they need it and they WILL GET IT. They're not gonna like what comes next. Gl










Sunday, April 24, 2016

A LIE WITHIN A LIE WRAPPED IN A LIE

So what happens when the ponzi  hits so many icebergs it can't bail out enough water to stay afloat? What happens when you've backed into one too many corners? What happens when your Catch22 becomes a Catch 2222? Do you think that you can honestly manipulate every financial market on Earth and do so INDEFINITELY without obeying Nature's law? I'll bet a lot of you are saying right now that well, they have to this point and why can't they do so indefinitely?  




Well they ARE NOT "getting away with it" even now. Look around you and open your eyes. Surely you aren't that stupid? Look at the REVENUE of the corporations within the "stock market". They are becoming a joke even in the business media that shills for them. Quarter after quarter they announce their future earnings are under duress and the "ANALysts" (owned by banks) will "lower" the "future revenue estimates" .....thereby setting a lower bar for the "next quarter" earnings to "beat". BUT the can't even do that now. They can't even beat the artificially lowered numbers. You don't get it yet do you? Then look how they do the next CON to meet earnings. THEY BUY BACK THE SHARES UNDER THE CON OF SHARE REPURCHASES. They even applaud it on CNBS as get this...."FINANCIAL ENGINEERING".........right in your face and you still don't get it. Its going on in bonds. All kinds of bonds......corporate, sovereign, blah blah blah. Its just a collapse.



 “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. [Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.” — Jesse Livermore

The ultimate CON is money itself. They are running out of time as the only real money is the actual gold and silver that is the warning bell that too much fiat has been printed. You'll never get on this train once it leaves the station. It IS THE CANARY IN THE PONZI MINE. Make no mistake. The "dollar" will collapse but you won't get out of that one. It will be dramatic and it will trap all of us in that casino....even me. We are getting close. gl buying that insurance when the hurricane is hitting.











Sunday, April 17, 2016

BAGHOLDERS

That's the answer for the question....What are the participants called in the World's most crowded trade? BAGHOLDERS...Remember when I used to warn how crowded the miner trade was four years ago? I knew it was at risk, but didn't appreciate just how much damage they could do to a crowded trade with their ability to CONtrol the paper market. As some here correctly pointed out, bullion was the safest play for the crowded precious metal. So what is the world's most crowded trade now? Its PAPER!! Its unbacked PAPER fiat. If you wish to be even more precise its the top counterfeit fiat pig.....ITS THE FIAT DOLLAR!! Oh sure.....the dollar is the prettiest girl at the dance blah blah blah. Oh sure Harry Dent assures you that gold is going to 600 and it is the WORST asset to own in DEFLATION. Surely you have the IQ to go back and check yourself what THE BEST PERFORMING ASSET was in the greatest deflation in our modern history was......you remember the GREAT DEPRESSION???? It was gold and gold miners......So does that make Harry Dent a liar or incompetent? You choose. 

Harry isn't alone. Rickards and others tell you to own gold but they waffle with when you should buy and where the price is going etc. Which creates a "deer in the headlight" move by retail investors. FOR ONE THING ITS NOT AN INVESTMENT. It is simply wealth preservation against a ponzi fiat currency scheme. If there is one thing you need to be aware of YOU DON'T BUY INSURANCE when the hurricane hits Its not for sale then. Its too late....sorry. I think the biggest fraud out there right now is the dollar and I think they are getting ready to rip it apart and I DON'T think you will get out of your dollars when they do. Hardly ANYONE is saying this could happen overnight and I think that is just what will happen. You'll get ring-fenced and told to piss-off......sorry charlie. 


gl and enjoy the game.











Sunday, April 10, 2016

ITS RIDER WAS DEATH

And Hades followed. And so our plight is set. We live in a strange time. Plagued by the ponzi of paper peddlers telling you "all is good" on a daily basis with an illusory array of "facts" that are becoming a complete comedy act for even some of the media sheep that repeat them.  You feel it don't you. Its happening now with regularity. Another bump in housing sales. Another bump in employment. Another bump in Facebook. Yet they can't conceal the collapse in retail sales revenue. They can't hide the complete destruction of Caterpillar. Its a bloodbath that is taking out the energy sector......the banking sector..........Its a full collapse and NO ONE in the media is really saying a word. 


There’s so much spin that comes out of Wall Street every day from hucksters who want this long-in-the-tooth stock bull market to continue (forever). The financial media (example: CNBC)
is no better, with most of them doing Wall Street’s bidding (it’s who pays them) and
cheerleading the Fed’s interventions because they’re died-in-the-wool believers
in central planning and big government.

If I’m correct and the central bankers are failing and likely to lose control, then we should see major turns in fortunes for both stocks (a continuation of the current sell-off) and gold
(a huge rally)…History is on our side. 
Money printing never works.
The paper gold shorts will be vanquished.”

— Fred Hickey, August 19, 2015

Suddenly the Fed is having an "unscheduled" meeting tomorrow. Suddenly Obama is having a meeting with Janet tomorrow. Its probably nothing. They're probably meeting to celebrate with a victory lap over the last Non-Farm Payroll report. CONgratulations are certainly in order. 


Bank Stocks Crashing
Coming back to the bank stocks, they are now crashing both in the US and in Europe. In the US they are at a multi-year low against the broader market and in Europe banking stocks have fallen 20% in four weeks. Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse shares are now back to the 2009 lows. The recent increase in money printing by the ECB only had a very short-term affect, and now the market is smelling blood in the streets. It is an absolute certainty that most banks are insolvent if they valued their toxic assets at market prices. QE will not change that but it might give the banks a stay of execution for a few months.

It is very clear to me that bank stocks are telling us what some of us have known for some time, namely that we are now entering a period when the market starts to recognize the severe risk in the financial system. Ironically, the zero or negative rate policy of central banks is also contributing to the demise of the banks. Firstly the banks cannot earn a real margin on any money deposited. Secondly the low rates totally kill any incentive to deposit money. Without strong savings, investments will also decline. And in a deflationary economy with low rates, it is impossible to earn a real return on investment without taking big risks. KWN Egon Von Greyerz

No one owns gold. No one owns silver. Its been the greatest success story of the manipulation. Remember when Rickards said gold will hit 900 or lower. Dent is at 600.  They will NOT wake up. At least they won't wake up in time to accumulate any significant silver or gold bullion at anything near the current prices. They'll beg you to sell them silver at 100$ and ABOVE, but they will not even buy an ounce at 15$. You don't believe me? You should have lived in 1980 then. When silver hit 40$ everyone was wanting to buy it, but no one wanted it at 2$ two years before. All of you stay asleep. Its ok. Its nothing. It will all take care of itself. Its all good.











Sunday, April 3, 2016

THAT MAKES TWO

Two of the sharpest tacks in the box are now in agreement ...finally....on what seemed to be the end game in the Fiat war. A clear and very important change just occurred in Jim Rickard's call on the end game. Prior to this week Rickards predicted that an SDR would be the resolution to the Currency Wars now occurring globally and felt this move would be an important tool to stem the currency wars. I repeatedly said this was disinformation and now he finally states CLEARLY that an SDR "would fail" because its would be seen as just another fiat and that gold would be a much better choice to revalue and use as a peg for all currencies. The fact that Rickards is abandoning this scenario is NOT to be dismissed lightly. This dovetails nicely into Jim Sinclair's call of a big move coming soon in gold. 


“You own gold, don’t you, Alan?”
“Of course, I’m not stupid.”


Rickards then goes on and states that gold should move to 10,000 at a minimum to prevent world deflation and perhaps even to 50,000 to keep pace with current money supply which I believe will actually explode to try and stave off deflation and stagnation. They will not have a choice with the money supply and therein lies the next dollar move as the dollar tries to reflate THE WORLD. It will be the final charge of the dollar before they pull the plug on it. Its a suicide run.  After all WHY would you go to ANOTHER currency with the current reserve currency near it recent high. You've got plenty of room to print and I believe they will. The market and the dollar will move down together as we collapse. Gold and silver will inversely correlate and I think Rickards finally sees how this game will play out. 

Look at the recent moves in the miners. They are in a consolidation on the daily and any pull backs in many of the juniors is short lived. The PAPER gold and silver trade in the miners is TERRIBLY risky but for much of the big boyz, its the ONLY alternative they have to allocate big money to gold and silver. BE AWARE of that fact. gl









Sunday, March 27, 2016

WE'RE NOT GONNA TAKE IT ANY LONGER!

We've figured it out. We've been under-employed too long. We've had low wages too long. We've been without jobs too long. We've had lousy medical care for too long. We've had corrupt crony politicians for too long. We've had our CONstitutional freedoms destroyed for too long. We've had NO justice for too long. We're going to vote for Bernie or Donald in spite of what your media tells us to do. We're finished falling for the same old bait and switch!!!

We are Amerikans and we are exceptional! We may have swallowed your box cutting jihad call to war on the "911" disaster. We might have swallowed your drumbeat to war with Iraq with "yellow cake" and "chemical weapons" and "regime change". We might have swallowed your need to attack Kadaffi and destroy another country because he was "bad". We might have swallowed your story on Assad (whatever that story is). But we're gonna tell you right here and right now, we are finished swallowing your stories to war.

We're NOT gonna send our BOYS or our MEN or our TROOPS or our "BOOTS ON THE GROUND" (well I guess maybe we could send boots...they really aren't humans).....WAIT!!! NO....we are NOT falling for your slippery newspeak....boots ARE men. So back to our proclamation of FREEEEEEEDOM.... WE are putting our foot down (and our slurpy) and stating categorically that our country is changing from the ground up (if we can get up). We will never EVER fall for your slick Madison Avenue Mainstreet Media manipulation ever again!!

Hilda....do you have my EBT card.....I'm gettin' hungry.......











Sunday, March 20, 2016

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

Welcome back. That handsome fellow above just might be your next President. Don't get too exited. Remember how the last "great change" turned out. The "system" has a way of CONvincing new Presidents that their "promises" they made are merely "goals" and that cooperation with the "system" can be a very rewarding proposition for them AND their family. Even a moral man or woman can bend a lot when their family's health is involved in the Deal.


"Everybody Ought to be Rich"


Raskob was very bullish in the stock market in the 1920s and gave an interview to Samuel Crowther for Ladies Home Journal in which he suggested every American could become wealthy by investing $15 per month in common stocks (at a time when average American's weekly salary was between $17 to $22).[2] The article (entitled "Everybody Ought to be Rich") arrived at newsstands just two months before the Wall Street Crash of 1929. -- also known as the Budfox doctrine.

So lets get to the point of the post and that is the metal trade. You just had one hell of a run in some of the very big miners like Barrick signalling the big money is starting to buy. Many Juniors have had stealth bulls over the past two years like RIC, Claude Gold, and Shibano. Had you invested in them when they were 90% down, you would have already doubled or tripled your money. RIC is up 500% Claude gold 1000%, but I digress. Most miners are overbought on the daily and weekly and can get even more overbought. You just don't know how high they might take these slaughtered miners in the short term here. As I said many times before the bull move in this sector will not let you get on when it starts to move and it definitely has started to move. 










 Let's stick with reality here. You needed to buy Apple last year or Intel or Netflix......you'd be down 30-40% over the past year. Now that's what I call BUY AND HOLD in the greatest game ever!

So disregarding the smart move which was Jim Sinclair's recommendation of Getting Out of The System...GOTS... and getting into physical assets like farm land/gold/silver...one does have a chance now to get out of paper with a little paper money and CONvert to hard assets, but of course most that are still in the paper miner trades will not.

There are going to be some very difficult beatdowns coming for the miner trade, but an even bigger difficulty might be staying in the trade as it enters an epic final bull market. Good luck if you think you're good enough to trade it. You won't be. This run will have epic moves up and frightening moves down with every pundit alive telling you the trade is through. They'll shake you so hard you'll wish you had never seen this trade, so gl.












Monday, March 7, 2016

BLOG TO REOPEN MARCH 20 (that's this sunday)

I am not fearless. It was a different time. Our systems now have the ability to monitor every citizen's entire life under a microscope and this CONtrol is accelerating. I don't need to go into detail but Andrew Jackson would never have been able to do what he did to the Central Banks if he were living today....and I ain't gonna try to be Andy Jackson.

I have mentioned several times over the years that I would have to close the blog when my inner clock told me it was time, and every fiber of my being was screaming to shut down this week after a series of events occurred that some of you may have noticed.


Frank Zappa


 The powers to be destroyed the retail traders in paper miners and gold. The powers to be destroyed the meme that gold metal was a "safety trade".  Mission accomplished. I stayed on the blog to try and provide some perspective to their motives and to provide humor until the bear market was over in the precious metals. Many didn't understand because they are not programmed to comprehend that this is all just one big psyop. You HAVE to laugh at it to survive. That game is now reversing which will put the metals into a massive bull market. I already have doubled my portfolio in just over 2 months. I have traded very little during this time. Of course we will have major knockdowns and attempts to take the weak handed leveraged traders out of the bull run trade. Just enjoy the antics and don't overtrade, you don't need me anymore to tell you the pain they can and will inflict. 


“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. [Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.” — Jesse Livermore

Be aware of your surroundings. Try and mend your relationships, because the time ahead will be much different than the past 40 years has been. You either get it now or you never will. I will greatly miss this blog and all of you and cannot express how much I will miss this time. The SKF years were amazing and will never be replicated. Good bye all....gl







Sunday, February 28, 2016

THE DOLLAR'S LAST STAND

As I have stated here a few months ago, I believe the Dollar topped out at and is beginning its decline. Just as the Stock Market topped out last May, the dollar decline will not be straight down. In fact they could approach the prior high in the very near term before its next leg down just to keep the short dollar trade from loading up. Whether they do this or not means nothing to my trade since I am not leveraged nor will it alter my longer term outlook. This global hegemony game can play out much longer than most people can stay solvent but for those that know the eventual outcome it provides more time to prepare for what it presages. Most retail players in the market think of these trades in much the same way they do their own trades, not realizing these trades involving currency are heavily leveraged trades and cannot withstand the current levels of volatility/time. These two variables are now being used by the largest pools to decide who wins and who dies in this final battle in the casino.


speed was a factor police say


For me and probably many of you, it still gives us some time to position ourselves with more tangible assets that we feel are necessary for our own investment strategy. The strong dollar, is in effect, a license to steal. It has been for decades, as the underlying economy it represents, declines into oblivion. Oh please, don't pretend you don't recognize this simple truth. We've been plundering the world for decades since World War 2 and its been done with the blood of our troops and treasury and worse ....the blood of tens of millions of humans around the world that did nothing more than be in a country that refused to become a slave to our Colonialism. We painted them with simple slogans as "Communists" or "Dictatorships" or "Terrorist Nations" or "Axis of Evil".......anything to keep the sheep asleep while their treasury and more importantly their morality was destroyed right under their nose. 

So here we are, entering the final stretch of hegemony, sipping Starbucks and watching the Election Circus while Rome burns. Too stupid and dumbed down by your GMO, video games, pathetic educational curricula, and MSM to even notice the collapse that's occurring all around you. Is there a chance we get out of this once again without a scratch, and the rest of the world gives us the keys to their castle for another 200 year cycle............sure they will.....you can BANK on it.

I have lots of popcorn popped so I can watch the Buttfoxes and Kindles etc play their games of ultimate denial and could care less what the day to day swings in the casino do. Its DESIGNED!!! Its all choreographed for YOU. gl











Sunday, February 21, 2016

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE REASONS START TO DIE?

You know what happens. Its the warm weather. Its too much oil being produced. Its a birth/death rate problem. Its too much savings. Its cash itself. Of course there's and excuse for every aspect of the economy and the stock market, which is purported to reflect the health of the real economy. You know......that "wealth effect"....that oh so important..."CONfidence". So what does happen when the REAL money...the Wall Street money decides the game is up? After all, the masters of the con know every con has a point that you have to pull the plug. The only question we have now to answer is what pattern they choose to exit the casino. They know their course of action and they know the fiat game is winding down. After all what REASON could anyone have for holding this worthless fiat ponzi paper much longer?

The rule of alternates will most likely apply to the overall market takedown but even they can be confusing to traders aware of their implications. They will also apply most likely to gold and metals also. So go back and look at the last move of gold and miners off their bottom in 2008. It already is much different. That was a moonshot off the lows with the GDX doubling in less than three months. Then a relatively tradeable move ensued for the next three years before this nasty bear took over to shake out the piglets that jumped on. Wallstreet and the real money....the boyz...will behave as sharks behave and they will feed. They will feed on the blood of the slaughter of the innocents including themselves as sharks always do....its their nature. Enjoy the game...and if you want to play then understand this run will be not only epic but most likely the last great hurrah in your lifetime of market gambling.