Wednesday, March 4, 2015

THE LAST PUMP

you da man Charlie
Who would have believed it? I didn't that's for sure. Many of us felt that after barely escaping a "global catastrophe" in 08-09 that an epic bull market would be the last thing the powers to be could orchestrate unless of course they were willing to completely eliminate free markets and price discovery completely, which is what they actually decided to do. 

Having endured three major bear market one would have thought the clock had finally run out on the Ponzi kings, but instead a very simple decision was made in 2009 and that was One More Ride to Glory. 

I remember like it was yesterday in the run up to the "1987 Crash". I still remember vividly the announcement of IBM's stock buyback a few months before the 87 crash. I remember the newly formed CNN business news explaining how bullish this was for the company. In those days on its face the explanation seemed plausible and why would a "business show" lie? There was a steady stream of analyst paraded on the new network showing how bullish the market was in 87 all the way up to the week the market crashed. There were virtually no bears to be found. There was one analyst named Elaine Garzarelli that purportedly called the crash shortly before and gained notoriety as one of the "only" analyst to nail it and rode that pony for years and years and forming her own hedge fund as a result.

2000 was a bubble that seemed even more obvious and the bubble media was in full pump mode for the year preceding that crash with CNBC leading the pump. Analyst after analyst proclaimed how different it was this time as multiples reached unheard of levels as the "internet" was welcomed into the lexicon. IPO after IPO was trotted out with instant billionaires everywhere. The problem was most of the instant wealth was "locked up" after the IPO or just "stayed at the party" too long and when they took the market down every leg was heralded as a "new buying opportunity" and the suckers on the side line stepped in and were slaughtered by the next selling wave. Many of the top flyers were down 90% or more or just delisted and left for dead. I still remember friends of mine leveraging up on stocks like JDSU after it was down 50% and then losing everything as it went down over 90% in just a few months.

Most of you still remember 07 and how Bernanke was constantly trotted out to tell us how there was no housing bubble and no slowdown was seen on the horizon. I still remember my friends relaying these facts to me as I made myself unpopular on the dinner circuit, but I just kept adding to my shorts of SKF and SRS as the 2008 collapse approached. I had Hedgee contacts in late March on a conference call with the biggest of the big boyz that were reassured while in Aspen that "someone" was backing them with liquidity and "hang in there" right after Bear Stearns had collapsed. I still remember telling them Lehman, and Merrill Lynch were next. They thought I was nuts. I continued to short the market while CNBC pumpers literally shouted down the naysayers in 2008 like Jim Rogers, Michael Pento and others. It was hard to calculate the wealth extraction they contributed to but after 2000, I knew the media had a different job than guarding the "public". 

Miners have been a disaster and may turnout to be the joke trade of a lifetime with this market. Physical gold and silver may be a bust too. I could be 100% wrong and we may have a slow steady economic recovery with sustainable growth and return to free markets and the rule of law because its different this time...right?.............yeah.. sure...  ;-)



Sunday, March 1, 2015

CAN WE HIT ESCAPE SPEED?

We just spent Trillions trying to jump start the collapse of 2008. We just printed at least 18 Trillion more in debt to stuff the balance sheets of the biggest banks. We've pumped Trillions more into the rest of the Western Central Banks and the World's velocity of money is still zero. Oh, I know we've proclaimed victory and now we're going to raise interest rates sometime this year. Maybe we will. I doubt it, but it can happen. In fact as part of the meme of recovery it may have to happen, but there will still be a problem. None of this is going to effect the insolvency of a debt binge of epic proportions that the World has engaged in over the past 30 years. 

No one can repair the staggering problem of developed countries obligations to their aging populations. Do you really believe with a declining birth rate these Western debt obligations to pension funds of baby boomers will be met?  Better yet do you believe in this country with 93 million Americans of working age that have given up looking for work really constitutes a recovery? Wait a minute. Let me guess. You live in Silicon Valley or New York City or Seattle and you don't see any of these problems in your backyard. Congratulations then, see no evil, hear no evil. Your problems are solved so go to another blog that spanks you on your ass and makes you call them daddy because you deserve it.

Pretending there's a recovery and actually having a recovery are conflicts that will have a resolution that sadly will effect all of us. It feels good now, but like all good feelings that are based on lies this too shall pass. Those are real people in those pictures and they aren't living in penthouses but they depend on a rule of law and truth for their future. They depend on a real economy to have a sustainable future and they are at the whim of the biggest ponzi in history. They will be the victims of malinvestment as the debt supercycle closes its doors on this dark chapter on human nature. Good people are going to feel the brunt of these Central Bank actions and none of us will escape without being touched. GL;







Tuesday, February 24, 2015

SOMETHING'S WRONG

You're in a time warp. You think that surely one day you will be  dealing with reality. You think you're going to wake up one day and we'll be back in a true price discovery market that is not completely controlled by algobots........WRONG! You're a member of the machine world now and there is no escape. Its no longer an economic world guided by Nature's gravity. 

Timmy Geithner warned in early 2009 that a decision was made to reinflate the debt bubble through the derivative markets. I listened to his interview live on Sirius and thought it was somehow just a bad joke or at least would never be implemented by rational people. I also realized the next years would be very painful for hundreds of millions of citizens as the flawed system was reset with its natural/unnatural eventual destiny with economic gravity but I was wrong. Instead they decided to slowly kill the real economy through a long and tortured course of keeping the Malinvestments of the previous 25 years alive through an elaborate marriage of propaganda and printed money. They indeed embarked on a long journey into the rabbit hole.

Many participants are convinced this unholy alliance of Wall Street and the Fed can keep going indefinitely. A part of me wishes they could, but they won't. I don't know when it fails but it will, just as it did in 2000 and 2008. Put your bets on the come line for the Ponzi if you believe this time it will be different. Somehow I suspect history will repeat and one day you may find that reality is suddenly back and no one could have seen it coming. Meanwhile the machines own you. gl








Sunday, February 22, 2015

WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

After a tumultuous week of nail-biting, arm-twisting, sacrificing, compromising politics we have a solution to the Greek slave state dilemma. If you like CNBS, edge of the chair world class coverage it just doesn't get any better. Joe Kernen waxed eloquently each morning about the importance of maintaining CEO pay while chastising the Wally World decision to give their slaves a few quarters. Becky Quicky relived her glory days as a cheerleader in college and how she kept Warren up during their long journeys together in Warren's Gulfstream. Of course that was during her younger days when she could handle a Senior Citizen on a Viagra/Coke rage. I enjoy listening to their banter early in the morning so I can benefit from the important events unfolding in the World and last week they were in rare form.

So what is the final report? Well we have a winner and the winner is CNBS!!!!  The extend and pretend settlement for four more months appears to be the result. I'm sure the Greek slaves will celebrate Monday on the streets after being sold down the river in leg irons for four more months. I'm sure their fearless leaders will be able to explain just how "extending" their bondage to the Germans will be in their best interests. So WHAT'S THE PROBLEM? Nothing as far as I can tell. Joe gets to keep his job four more months and Becky gets one last Gulfstream ride with Warren. Its all good. Extend and Pretend. gl






Tuesday, February 17, 2015

ITS ALL GOOD

We don't have a local coffee shop so I have coffee at the globalist Starbucks. Its not bad stuff and lets me quiz one of my mates that lived through the Great Depression. He was 5 in 1933 and remembers his family losing their home and subsequently moving in with his Aunt in a nearby Iowa town. He remembers the bums walking down the roads daily looking for work and food. He recalled going into town with his mother to the town square weekly for food handouts. He would pull his little red wagon and they would fill it with cheese and other food before they returned to their Aunt's house. He said there was always a large group of people there to get the government handouts. 

You learn some important lessons if you study history and one lesson was that long lines of people standing in line for food does not enhance your meme "the economy is better" and "its all good". So ouila we have the EBT card. Its virtually indistinguishable from a standard credit card. Its even distributed by J P Morgan (isn't that interesting). So in this "recovery" that is "so steady and strong" we don't have any food lines for the 40 million Americans on EBT (food stamps) cards. In fact most people in lines at grocery stores don't even realize that person in front of them that swiped their card was living on the dole. Brilliant. 

Another big statistic that we've talked about many times is the unemployment number. No reason to beat this one to death, but changing literally all of the metrics in the 80's used to calculate this number was a stroke of ponzi brilliance. Charles Ponzi would be proud. You almost get the feeling they knew something was coming all the way back in the 80's. Funny how a guy who made 90K a year in 2006 is still counted as employed if he's working 20 hours a week at Home Depot making $11 bucks/hr.  The change I like is the birth/death calculation or the "seasonal adjustment number". Maybe the best is if you just gave up looking......then you ARE NOT EVEN COUNTED AS UNEMPLOYED. You can't make this stuff up. There's more but either you get it by now or you're just too stupid and I why bother.

My guess is a lot of people are getting it by now, but by the time most figure it out they'll be living in the trailer park with Buttfox or worse. You are right about one thing the Ponzi has taught you. DONT BUY GOLD OR SILVER. That is a big no no. Listen to the Mainstream Media just like Buttfox and other trolls tell you. After all if the MSM tells you its a bad investment then you should listen. After all they wouldn't lie to you. THEY'RE JOURNALISTS. That's why they're paid millions/ year. Because they're truthful, honest brokers of the news. Just ask blue-eyed next door boy Brian Williams, he'll tell you the truth. gl 









Saturday, February 14, 2015

THE GATHERING STORM

 At 5:41 PM on a peaceful spring Sunday afternoon a terrifyingly powerful Tornado hit Joplin, Mo. I listened to the event live over an emergency network. The full impact of the storm would not be known for hours but even in the first few minutes we knew this event was catastrophic. Within minutes well over a thousand residents would be dead or injured and damages of over 2 billion dollars would be inflicted to this small city. A ten story hospital was completely destroyed and patients were literally blown out of the hospital and later found blocks away. I know much more detail from working with many of the rescuers that were there during that night and the next several days, and can only say the description of the carnage was unimaginable. 

There were a number of lessons learned from this disaster, but of course as in most disasters there really was no good way to be totally prepared for the total devastation a multiple vortex EF 5 tornado can inflict on a concentrated urban population. I still work with some of the people that were in that hospital that day and can only say they share one feeling in common and that is a feeling of total helplessness as the storm struck. 

I have often posted that we are susceptible in so many ways to an even more catastrophic force of Nature coming our way and that preparing for this event may be the only way to have a chance at surviving it long term. THAT is NOT why I buy physical gold and silver. Its not an insurance policy for that catastrophic storm. Gold and silver is for an economic storm that is LESS than an EF 5 event. Food, water, shelter, and land is for the more extreme event that many began to feel was about to land on our shores in 2008.

Instead we are wallowing in a field of malinvestment created by a Fed policy of deception and money printing. The very weakest and worst investors for our country are being supported by this policy creating a future foundation for our country of pure quicksand. This policy WILL have ramifications as the weakest elements of our society become the support for our next cycle. Without clearing of these elements no strength will be generated so the strongest survivors can begin the process of leading our regeneration. 

I buy silver and gold because I am an optimist that we won't be hit by and EF 5 disaster of epic proportions. I believe that nature will clean the weakest of the past supercycle and it will provide one brick of the next financial foundation. gl

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

THE LONG CON IS OVER

A good sting never lets the mark know they were conned. In other words a really good CON needs the mark to believe they weren't even CONNED. We're in the ultimate long con and as in any really good CON most of the marks have no idea they're in a CON, but that's where this CON starts to fall apart. This CON depends primarily on CONfidence... ie its a CONfidnce game. The public is the mark and it relies on keeping the vast majority of the public believing the system is acting in their best interest. This is accomplished ONCE AGAIN through CONfidence the institutions that represent the system also represent the public. 

Its really that simple. Don't overcomplicate what's breaking down. Its very simple.....its the system. It can't maintain CONfidence, because the system itself is rotten to the core. The government is rotten...the leaders of the governments are corrupt.......the corporate systems are corrupt......the unions are corrupt......and on and on. The very fabric of the system is corrupt and the people themselves are breaking down as they try to turn to some form of justice. At one time the mainstream media, although always corrupt, maintained some level of respect and pretended to be an honest broker, but even their CON is finished. 

The end of the Long CON is accelerating rapidly now. Of course some of you seem oblivious to what's now happening virtually daily. You probably think the crashing oil price is just everyday fluctuations in "just another commodity", unable to assimilate the real consequences of such an anomaly to our financial structure. Suck your kool aid, but when you wake up one day from the Long CON and realize you are the mark, don't say you weren't warned just like most marks are. That's right most marks are warned, but they just couldn't believe it was that good of a CON. gl







Sunday, February 1, 2015

SO THIS IS IT

No one wants to believe the Fed is going to take away the punch bowl from this party, least of all the boyz on Wall Street. After all, why would you want to return to reality when the dream state of free money from Fed heaven is the current norm. You wake up each day now to virtually all of the talking heads discussing what each word in the Fedspeak that day means. Only someone that is willfully ignorant can't comprehend what that means. For those that are "unsure" .....it means the Fed IS the market. 

When your entire entire economy is in "such a steady recovery", that the Fed can't even TALK about raising interest rates in a few months, one has to wonder just WHAT is recovered. Do you mean the Eurozone is going to NEGATIVE interest rates and WE'RE going to RAISE interest rates. Just HOW do you think THAT is going to work? Someone is lying. I used to think a nominal 25bps might be useful to pull a little air out of the current equity bubble, but the effect on the dollar would create an incredible strain on our exporters and you know who wields the power in D.C.. 

We're reaching an impasse this year and something is going to give with the currency wars. The Swiss fired the first shot. There will be more casualties to follow this year as balance sheets become more strained. Greece can't have their best educated working as prostitutes and bartenders and they are looking towards Russia now as a counterparty to the EU. 2015 promises to be a year of turmoil as the deflationary pressures begin to bring down the money printing scheme of the Fed. Nature eventually has to be obeyed. France is threatening the entire Eurozone structure tonight and the news tomorrow will be only about the Superbowl. Let the Tanks roll into Ukraine and blow it apart. No one will even know in today's news feed. Enjoy....but one day the ponzi breaks and when it does it will be in the blink of an eye. gl

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

WE'RE BUYING THE DIP AREN'T YOU?

We buy dips. Why you ask? Because we're trained like monkeys. Wait...we are monkeys so I guess the real reason is we want to just push that buy button. Caterpillar earnings are collapsing? So what? Durable good orders collapsed and so did the revisions of the previous month's orders? So what? Microsoft sucks? The big banks sucks? All of the developed nations are collapsing their currencies? Negative interest rates on savings? Oil collapsing? SO WHAT? We like to push the BUY button. Its simple we're monkeys and we buy.

Its so funny to listen to the monkeys on CNBS on mornings like this. Bloomberg's funny too but CNBS is the best shit show. Listening to the explanations for all of the disastrous data is analogous to hearing the excuses of a husband that comes home to his wife late with lipstick on his collar, alcohol on his breath, his tee shirt inside out, and his fly unzipped. It would be really comical if it didn't portend a truly ill wind coming our way.

The conditioned hedge funds, retail, and institutional investors are primed for slaughter with the past 6 years of the Fed put always there to pick you up. I'm sure they'll be there for the herd this year too. So go ahead monkeys keep pressin' that lever. gl








Sunday, January 25, 2015

HOW CAN WE BE IN THE FIFTH YEAR OF A BULL MARKET?

While we have been in a Great Depression.... Oh, I know the answer from the clueless is its because we ARE NOT in a "Great Depression".  Well of course you're right because that's what CNBS and CNN and Fox News and NBC etc. tell you...so yes...you are right Budfox etc.

Maybe you just want to ignore the 93 million working age Americans that have STOPPED LOOKING for work and are no longer even counted in the unemployment numbers. I don't blame you, because if you do acknowledge that simple fact ALONE, then you look like a jackass.

But let's take this even further. How do all of these people stay invisible to the daily meme we all live in. For one thing over 49 million receive a "plastic" credit card (complements of JPM and backed by YOU) called an EBT card. The average family of four has over $1000/mo of fiat on this card for "food and necessities" but did you know they can spend that at virtually any fast food restaurant etc. Note to Mickey Dee investors......NOW you know why you did so well after 2008. There is also a certain amount of cash that can be accessed monthly on an EBT that can then be used for "non-food" items....lovely.

At least we don't have to look at those ugly lines of "poor people" like we had in the 30s....problem solved.

How about the rest of that working age 93 million? Many of the under 30 crowd still live with their parents like buttfox. They don't even work at low paying jobs. They have no hope of marriage or a family. Most of the young, college degree crowd that are counted as employed have part-time jobs that aren't even in their degree fields.

Your jobs got shipped out. You might have even cheered for NAFTA etc when they did it, but it doesn't matter, it would have happened anyway. 

Now where are we today? We're being groomed for "reset". We're being beta tested for the roll out.  Don't worry, it'll be for your own good. After all, they'll roll it out as your fault and feast on your guilt and if you don't like it, then you'll be squashed like a bug. Of course something could go wrong. Maybe you still want to dream and think there's a way to pile even MOAR debt on our backs to finance the debt they've already piled on our backs. Maybe you think the dollar will remain as the World's reserve currency so they CAN print and buy even MOAR debt. You'll do what your told or just Maybe this will become so obvious that people just say I would rather die standing  than living on their knees....maybe it will get so ugly people just say foch it. Like Patrick Henry said "Give me liberty or give me death". I think he meant it because at some point being a slave just isn't worth living for some people. Unfortunately for me, I'll be in the category of the "visible" wealthy, so contrary to the buttfoxes, I don't wish for this day. I dread it. gl