Sunday, May 24, 2015

RESET

What happens when 'the' Central Bank of all Central banks hosts the world's reserve currency games in your country of origin? The country that issues the world's reserve currency must run trade deficits or export it's inflation while maintaining "confidence" 
in the currency with inflation, at the same time.  

"The Triffin dilemma or paradox is the conflict of economic interests that arises between short-term domestic and long-term international objectives for countries whose currencies serve as global reserve currencies. This dilemma was first identified in the 1960s by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin, who pointed out that the country whose currency, being the global reserve currency, foreign nations wish to hold, must be willing to supply the world with an extra supply of its currency to fulfill world demand for these foreign exchange reserves, thus leading to a trade deficit."

In debt based economies, you must always have inflation to service the sovereign debt.

What happens when you repeal Depression Era legislation and replace it with moral hazard?
What happens when "they" are international and you aren't?
What happens when 2008 to 2015 you print 13 trillion and naked short certain markets and "make" others?
What happens when in the US 10 Thousand baby boomers retire every year for the next 20 years?
What happens when your debt increases 40 Thousand Dollars, a second?

From William White chief economist of the Bank of International Settlements.

"Beggar thy neighbor devaluations are spreading to every region. All the major 
central banks are stoking asset bubbles deliberately to put off the day of reckoning. 
This time emerging markets have been drawn into the quagmire as well, corrupted 
by the leakage from quantitative easing (QE) in the West. 
...
We are in a world which is dangerously anchored."

Federal? Reserve Open? Market meetings or the free market, who ya gonna trust?

"We believe that U.S. bank regulators have made substantive progress in establishing a credible framework to resolve a large, failing bank," said Robert Young at Moody's. "Rather than relying on public funds to bailout one of these institutions, we expect that bank holding company creditors will be bailed-in and thereby shoulder much of the burden to help recapitalize a failing bank." 


In October they're going to recalibrate the Special Drawing Rights.

Place your bets hehehe.

-Old Hickory


Thursday, May 21, 2015

THE GREATEST FAIRY TALE EVER

Why not believe in pixie dust? Its being sprinkled on you everyday. Don't ya feel it? Just listen then. Listen to the sound of pixie dust on CNBS or Bloomberg or Fox or CNN. Its being sprinkled in Unison. You just shrug and wonder how far the can take the farce the "Financial Crisis" is over and we're in year 6 of the "recovery" with "escape velocity next quarter". How many times can the "big lie" be repeated" while the moral hazards reach exponential size? Just how much money did the "retirees" have available to live on because there's one damn thing for sure.... they aren't makin' any interest on their savings and that means they're takin' money out of their savings each and every year of this "recovery". 

So what does someone do for inspiration when the truth is right out there in front of you, but it seems everyone else can't see it but you? Maybe you're one of those guys that's smart like Fleckenstein or Rogers or Faber or Dalio or Bass etc etc. that can see how rigged the game is and know that they're gonna slaughter the suckers, but you can pick and choose where and how you play the paper game while the orchestra plays on the Titanic's deck.

You can see the pixie dust is starting to irritate even the bullish paper players because they know the extreme levels of Fed liquidity have distorted so many Market metrics that they are becoming fearful of the consequences. 

Inspiration? You're wasting your time. You just have to go back to the last two bubbles in 2000 and 2008. They sprinkled pixie dust even while they unloaded their stinking rotting shares throughout most of the crash. They trotted out the same stinking liars like Krudlow and Liarsman and told you all the way down things were fine. At the bottom The same dope peddlers told you to sell. I remember going long three weeks before the bottom in 2009 while Cramer screamed it was just too dangerous. 

Inspiration? This go around I don't know if they'll even have a system left when the bubble they're creating blows. They're gonna have to scrub the decks and throw the whole rotting garbage that makes up this stinking system overboard or we're gonna see something worse than the 30s.  Will they do that? I hope so but I won't hold my breath. Last go around I played leveraged short ETFs. This time it aint gonna happen. You might be given a chance but you won't collect most likely. Especially once things turn really hot. Play paper but you better know your risks. The whole system is rotten. gl collectin'












Sunday, May 17, 2015

DON'T WORRY

It's different this time. Its all being CONtrolled as the entire world assists in the Pavlovian dog experiment of the Millenium. Don't ya feel it? Its not a lie. Its real. You can feel it. Its warm and comfortable. Its reassuring. Just like eating hot meatloaf and potatoes and gravy in the dead of winter. It feels good, but there's something missing and you just don't quite know what it is. Oh, its peas. You have to have peas with your winter meatloaf and potatoes. 

Where are the peas? That has to be what makes it different this time. You're told that Chicago is bankrupt. We know Detroit already defaulted. We're told most of our pensions are badly underfunded without any mathematical possibility of survival. So which ones? We know they have already defaulted many corporate pensions in industries such as the airlines and in many cases the recipients lost 80% of their monthly pension payments, but which are next and how many? Why isn't that being discussed. How can the Bund have its interest blow 7 fold in just a few weeks? What's wrong? Why can't we raise interest rates by just 0.25%? Why can't we do that? Its a quarter of one point. That seems strange. 

What's wrong with the stock market? It can't correct even 5%. Why do we have a 5% unemployment rate when there are 93 million working age Americans not working? Why didn't anyone on Wall Street go to prison for the 2008 debacle? Why can no major banking figures be prosecuted? Does someone know something. Maybe that's why there were so many middle level bankers committing suicide recently. 

Does anyone else out there find the daily news cycle very boring now as if everything that comes out is being filtered through some time of invisible hand designed to keep us in a state of suspended animation. Even much of the alternative media seems to be in this fog. I'm not. I'm enjoying every phony, contrived day they give me. Hope you are too. BTW take a look at that newspaper above. Quite a bit goin' on back then.  gl









Wednesday, May 13, 2015

BOING!!!!

Very quietly, without fanfare on the MSM business shows, gold and silver popped out of its coiled spring consolidation triangle.......BOING !! Miners were held within their range today so I would hesitate to call this THE release. Maybe just a nice move, maybe just another enticement for some fast money to flush. I don't really care with my paper play since it became an "investment"....

Those of you that hold real money (bullion) shouldn't care about the paper price except to hope the true paper ponzi powerbrokers can actually push it down to sub-1000. If you have fiat, then of course you've been given the discount that I never dreamed you would have been given just a few short years ago. 

The bubbles are being blown to such an extent that either the manipulators take some serious air out of them now or the final event will make 2008 look like a picnic. I think they don't do any serious "air-letting" and I believe they will push this to an extreme within the next few months. I hope they levitate it forever but they will not. Boom and Bust is how they play and they will blow this bubble and collect real assets for pennies on the dollar. It happened in 2001 and 2008 and it will happen again soon. That is the nature of cycles and the true power that understands them. 

As Richard Russell says frequently now, I must endorse the inner peace I feel with the knowledge that I have done the very best I can to prepare for the cycle collapse. If you have become conditioned to accept they can push this out indefinitely, I hope for your sake you are right. gl watching all of this theater ......it is entertaining...









Sunday, May 10, 2015

ESCAPE VELOCITY!!

T minus 93 million and we have LIFTOFF. That's right only 93 million working age Americans (and growing) are now NOT in the labor force. How convenient for the meme "the economy is growing because the unemployment number is 5.3%. Amazing isn't it? You aren't in the workforce and YOU DON'T GET COUNTED. Only in Amerika. Ya gotta love it.

Oh, you've got a job? Well congratulations. Or maybe you have one of those new $9/hr part time jobs at a bar. Shut up and don't complain. We all had to start somewhere. Oh, you're 40y/o and you had a full time job five years ago making 75K/yr. Well then YOU WERE PAID TOO MUCH. Oh, you've got another part time job making 9 buck an hour at the liquor store? Well hell, what in the heck are you complainin' about? You're takin' TWO JOBS. That makes you GREEDY! Oh, you've got two teenagers about to go to college and your savings are gone? Tough! You should have thought about that before reproducing and going to college for that 75K job that we shipped to India. THAT makes you a sucker and we know that we don't bail out malinvestment like that in Amerika. 

Why don't you go out there and get a job like Budfox consulting making 6 figs a year. Anyone can do that if Budfox can. Hey....after all you should be driving a Tesla S and living with your mom. That would make a lot more sense in this economy. But really it doesn't matter because we're doin' so well right now that we can't even raise interest rates 25 bps without Granny's panties getting in a wad. But we are about to go into ESCAPE VELOCITY. To the moon Alice to the moon. Wait wait its gettin' better, just wait. 

Remember the "Great Recession". Its old history and anyone that thinks we really never were out of the "Great Recession" must think the Main Stream Media or the Politicians or the Economists or the Pundits are ALL lying. That would make you a "conspiracy theorist" and we all know what those losers are. Hey! You have a good day. Keep stacking those greenbacks!!! gl












Thursday, May 7, 2015

YELLEN'S STUCK

CNBS reporter Mandy Dreary was able to scoop an interview with the Chairwoman yesterday at the Fed. Mandy was placing some last minute makeup on in the restroom when the Chairwoman entered to use the facility. Mandy was able to greet her with a "hello how are you" and the Chairwoman looking confused and somewhat harried, mumbled an unintelligible acknowledgement without glancing up. 

Mandy noted the Chairwoman appeared to be flustered as she emptied her purse on the lavatory counter top and rummaged through the contents until she found a pack of Marlboro Reds and a lighter then entered an empty stall with a cup of Starbuck's coffee.

As the pungent odor of cigarette smoke filled the air, Mandy like  any good reporter presented with an opportunity  decided to ask the Chairwoman if she had any comment on her earlier comments about the market being too high. There was no immediate comment as some strange noises emerged from behind the stall, then eventually Mandy heard "I'm stuck here".  

Puzzled, Mandy asked if she felt that meant that interest rates would remain at zero. Another pause then eventually a distinct "I'm stuck" again was heard.

Slightly confused, Mandy asked if perhaps Draghi would be of assistance and this time a quick reply came back from behind the door "No no I can do this myself, it just takes a little time"

Mandy was confused somewhat by her answers and decided to ask her one more question for clarification. Madame do you feel trapped with your ZIRP policy?  A clear reply of "I'll be glad when this shit is over with" came from behind the stall door. Surprised by the response Mandy said "come again". Then a very clear "Damn.. I am finally done". The door then opened and the Chairwoman emerged looking still dazed, and confused but looked up at Mandy and smiled while popping breath mints into her mouth and stumbling out of the bathroom. Mandy noted the three feet of toilet paper hanging out of the back of her dress but decided the tissue issue would be better addressed by her handlers and remained silent.  BTW if any of you take the current daily market moves a serious reflections of a free market economy and you believe the Fed is "in charge"... then you probably don't need to be reading this post........gl





Sunday, May 3, 2015

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO A BLOATED MARKET

You just don't know is the simple answer, but one thing is certain it is NOT healthy. The bond market is so bloated that when it goes it will drag every market with it in the world. What happens when the bloated dollar trade breaks? Another crowded trade. Once you have all the buyers slurping up the trade, then you have no one left for the sellers. At least for now the Fed has been the buyer of last resort. Will there be one last pig move of gluttony on the dollar binge and a big puke on the last of the long paper gold traders? Wouldn't that be just perfect for the true physical stackers. A gift from the Ponzi Pumpers. How can you not love that kind of a bargain? I just DON'T think we get it. At least not long enough that many of us will catch it. Enjoy picking the way they will keep you out of this paper/physical trade. They have been diabolical up to this point and I expect nothing less from our masters. 

Greece still looks like the canary in the coal mine.....or maybe the fuse on the dynamite. Our own economy is collapsing but we still have companies buying their own shares back to prop up the share price and how can you NOT love THAT type of company growth? You can't make this stuff up and we just sit there and they just keep coming up with one new scam after another. Madoff was a piker compared to this crowd. 

Still rolling around the country right now and nothing has changed with the distrust of the developing Police state. The true power has to lock you down for your protection. In fact I frequently tell people that don't believe we are going to have Marshall Law, that you not only will but most of you will BEG for it. That will be the type of conditions created to make you not only accept but BEG for the government to intervene and protect you. enjoy and gl



Tuesday, April 28, 2015

JUST CALL IT

Here's  an uncomfortable mental analogy, like a splinter in your mind or an itch you just can't scratch, you've known something is wrong, but you just can't quite 
put your finger on it, or perhaps your belief system forbids it and the cognitive dissonance is there to compensate. On the surface it looks ok, but if you dig a little deeper, perhaps asking how money is created, there are some uncomfortable truths you may discover along the way.  Or maybe the fact is you just don't care.

I don't have any exact numbers to post, they've been put up before and it's really pretty amazing, 5% of the world's population and 25% of the world's prison population, the amount of people on food stamps, the labor participation rate, the top 01%'s ownership of "the economy" etc etc etc... Perhaps "The Market" is just a reflection of society, a sign of the times. If things were meant to be another way they would be.  Place your bet on the side of 'ignorance is bliss' or place it on the fifth stage of 'acceptance', you either don't care or you realize that it is too big to stop, that is, this is what happens when an unstoppable force meets a moveable object in a global marketplace where all ships eventually reach equilibrium, where off shoring jobs and vast portions of the economy at the same time as importing cheap foreign labor, all the  while creating artificially created bubbles to enrich the few insiders, in the name of the maintaining the status quo, falling under national security and continuity of government is the name of the game. Who cares, we live in a day and age where "Majority Rules" on the bottom and elitism rules on top and this is what's best for us and after all in a world of central planning and central banking, you can't fight city hall.

"On a gathering Storm comes a tall handsome man with  a shadow is cast where ever he stands, stacks of green paper in his red right hand."
Doesn't that sum it up?  Nice looking on the surface with money created from nothing.

"What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?"
"Sir?"
"The most you ever lost on a coin toss?"
"Oh, don't know.  I couldn't say."
"Call it."
"Call it?"
"Yes."
"For what?"
"Just call it."
"Well, we need to know what we're calling it for here."
"You need to call it.  I can't call it for you, or it wouldn't be fair."
"I didn't put nothing up."
"Yes, you did.  You've been putting it up your whole life, you just didn't know it."  ____ guest post OH






Sunday, April 26, 2015

BRIAN WILLIAMS RETURNS

No, he's not returning to his job, at least not yet. He is back in the news this weekend because the "NBC internal investigation" has had a "leak". The "leaker" disclosed that the investigation of Brian Bullshitter has revealed so far over a thousand instances of "embellishments".  You know what embellishments are don't you? Embellishments are what you call a lie when you are describing a "delicate" sophisticate such as Brian Bullshitter. Now for someone that uses a number like a Zillion(see last post) or says "thousand instances"(see above)...... then you can say LIAR (for little people like me). 

Hey.....I like Brian, but he is emblematic of a greater problem and that is the breakdown of this society and his drop needs to be noted. We've always had a corrupt media, but within the mainstream media, we had voices of truth. Now we've had a lockdown in the CONfidence message through a complex system of CONtrol and with it comes the breakdown that allows the Brian Bullshitters to develop. Why not?.....they watch the daily lies they're fed and then regurgitate to the public. They can't help but realize they're part of a propaganda machine, even though they have some level of self-induced compartmentalization. Immorality is a poisonous gas and it seeps into every crack and crevice available and we are at the terminal phase of seeping. 

Comcast (owner of NBC) just took a corporate beating this past week and they're probably doing nothing more than getting the Brian news out now to unload all the bad news together. They've been whacked by the Russert death and abject failure of  the Gregory hack. At least Russert feigned objectivity. Gregory's hatchet job on  Greenwald was over the top and even the general dumbed down audience was turned off from his disgusting arrogance.

Enjoy Bruce Jenner's transition. Nothing like a slow motion train wreck to get your head turned. How about those Royal baby pics from the past 100 years? Maybe you're glued to Baseball's opening weeks. Your team is going all the way this year (at least at this point). Hockey playoffs going GRRREAT! Thugball still going too. Hey....don't forget the latest police shooting in Balimoar. Its this way. NO....its over here. 

Back to the future. Where are we now? An epic transition from old media to the digital feed is taking place and there must me a CONtrol of the message. Digital media will be crushed at some point through the command and CONtrol but until then we have a window. Could be a lot that gets through that window if you're looking. Enjoy these times they are illuminating. gl and go long the ponzi. 

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

FLASH CRASHER ARRESTED

We can all rest safely now and re-enter the market. The ponzi has arrested the perp responsible for the Flash Crash in 2011. Four years after one of the market's "terrifying events", a culprit was arrested while "pumping iron" in his mum's apartment in London. His name is Jesse James Hinkley. He's a sure bet to go down in history as the notorious evil that "stole your money" along side other notorious evil doers (like Martha Stewart and Fabian Whathisname) that were behind the Bear market events of the "Great Recession". Of course,  the true bull market can now resume unabated as "natural buying" and "market forces" such as algobots and HFT traders drive our markets to glory.

Don't get me wrong. I love a great ponzi. Who doesn't? After all if the markets were allowed to "free float" where would all of our retirement accounts be? I mean WTF, if Faceplant trading at a PE of 4 million and no growth reverted to the mean then just how fun would their after hours earnings have been today? Better yet what about Chipotle Beans and Slop today. Watta company!!!!! Trading at a P/E of Ten Million for Slop in a Burrito can't mean there's "A problem". It just means you don't recognize a "growth stock". I mean seriously, DUH!!!......you'd think malinvestment was involved at some extreme level created by the Fed's stated "four trillion" and who knows how many trillion of "unannounced" printing to bail out the "other" malinvestments like Chicago's pension funds and municipal debt of 12 Zillion. How can you NOT love it. 

Meanwhile 77 y/o granny and her dipshit husband that worked for American Airlines for 40 years with a retirement that has been decimated are now working at a Neiman Marcus cash register in Boca Raton so they can eas beans at Chipotle tonight and may catch a chance meeting with Hillary driving through to show she's common too and fart beans like the rest of us forced to eat dog food that saved their money to collect 6% on their savings. Good luck with that move. You're a saver and you're and idiot. Like Dylan Ratigan said so famously...."They're EXTRACTING THE WEALTH OF THE MIDDLE CLASS and when they're done they're gonna stick wooden poles up your asses then pour hot oil over you and use you for their Tiki bar lights. 

I may have misquoted some of my statistics but who cares its AMERIKA!!! Like I said above WHO doesn't love a good ponzi. After all who can get hurt. Right now I'm listening to Judith Miller pumping her new book on CNBS. Some of you might not know who Judith Miller is and you should consider yourself lucky. She was one of the reporters that pumped the two recent wars we were in. She shamelessly distorted, lied, and manipulated her stories for the public's well-being. Now she's writing her version of history. Stick a fork in reality. Stick a fork in price discovery. Everyday just gets more surreal......gl.......btw the above piece does have satire and took some liberties. I hope you don't get mad.