Monday, March 12, 2018


I was musing about some topic that might seem pertinent to our current situation and low and behold the Grand Super Cycle popped up. How can the bitter clingers still believing in economic cycles influencing your macro economic outlook and the influences on your stock market trading decisions not want to know about this critical theory and its current status.

Well maybe Cliff Droke can step in and comment on its useful application and how a 2014 collapse came and left with barely a whimper. Maybe that's why the SnP short at its 61.8 retrace at 1228 was the ticket we should have jumped on. I know I had some shorts entered several times and usually closed them out with a loss or made minimal returns. More than likely my significant losses in 2009 on SRS a real estate short tempered my enthusiasm for shorting this market "recovery", and saved me from any aggressive shorts leading into the Kress cycle collapse. I chose instead to go with the gold and silver miners as my big play and like some of you found out that could be painful as well. I knew one thing for certain and said so many times that shorting this ponzi would be very difficult after living through the 2008 shorting. They pulled every dirty trick they could to prevent us peasants from making a dime in their casino. I didn't short this pig "with both hands" at 1228. 

Fortunately 2016 brought the pitiful miner positions back from the brink of extinction and even after the last year and a half of beatdown. Hell they might find some love yet.......time will tell of course as great stocks like Uber and Tesla and Netflix just burn the shit out of cash and rack up debt to the moon. Maybe you're one of the believers that "this time its different" and compose the bulk of precious metals sentiment which is "the battle is lost" and the "cartel has won"......or what I think is even more amazing you believe that "selling your physical gold and silver and buying BitCON" is your ticket to prosperity.

To my "show me" thinking it only adds support to my view that we are only in a consolidation in the PM trade and time running out on the suppression. Notice I said "suppression".  "They" will CONtrol the next leg up on this PM move in the near term and perhaps even into the final massive move in the metals. Before the 2016 run up several of the big players like Dalio announced they were long miners and gold just as they are again today. Stay patient. Oh...and the Kress cycle a search.....its history.....literally.

Sunday, March 4, 2018


Yup...its hard to believe, but its been a decade now since the disastrous collapse of Bear Stearns signaling the collapse of the financial markets and very nearly our entire financial system and economy as CONfidence in these institutions of power collapsed. End of the World doom porn prevailed by the end of the year in many households around the Western World and homeless tents sprang up outside many American cities. Liquidity was non-existent in most markets and fear prevailed.

Putin Says "US Political System Eating Itself Up", Explains Preparation For Nuclear War

And then came Mana from Heaven. After careful CONsideration and planning within a "new administration", a plan was hatched. The life blood of an economy would be restored....liquidity. This was a simplistic decision.....hatched from necessity....and necessary if our Big Banks were going to survive and keep our "way of life" CONtinuing. We were placed on the Federal Reserve dole. Oh, you know....."whatever it takes". LOL and if we throw in a few more Trillion on top of "whatever it takes" then its even BETTER!

Really, it was just that simple. All of the Central Banks and Governments said "we gotz ta save da peeps", so like any psychopath with a credit card, they said "Charge it Bitch". And boy oh boy did they. EBT cards, Cash for Clunkers, Government direct corporate bailouts (including GM Chrysler AIG etc), .....but that was only the beginning. Then they started (admitting) they were buying stocks directly through Central Banks as our dollar printing placed in the reserves of "other" Central Banks found its way (accidentally of course) back to our stock market in the form of direct share purchases. 

The "Recovery" was steady and gradually CONfidence began to return to the downtrodden masses. Just one little problem, the "problem" was never fixed. In fact the "problem" was now magnified by a factor probably near TEN. We now have even more debt and an economy that is no longer capitalism or free market but encumbered by enormous debt and malinvestment. Take away the ultra low interest rates and this house of cards becomes a high density killing field. 

So when does our much discussed doom scenario start? It already has. Enjoy the extraction since you've been in it for ten years. You've been living off your children and their children. Doesn't feel that bad does it? When they take you out of the water, they'll probably put a little salt on you before they take their first nibble. 

Sunday, February 25, 2018


Its put up or shut up time for the last silver slingers. Its hard for the last of the silver slingers to believe, but many of the hardiest and loudest mouths of the silver gang surrendered their guns during the past couple of years. They surrendered. They coughed up their hoard. They capitulated. 

Fed's Powell Says He Sees ‘No Evidence’ of Overheating in the U.S. Economy

Trump Pivots Toward Trade Wars With Promotion Of Trade Uber-Hawk Peter Navarro

I'm not talking about the paper miner share holders. Hell...most of that gang puked up their shares several years ago when they hit their bottoms. Nope, I'm talking about holders of pure silver bullion. The stuff dreams are made of. At least that's what we thought it was. You remember, the stuff that's been money for thousands of years. Those two precious elements that compose a special place in nature. No I'm not talking about BitCON. I'm talking about the can't miss SILVER and GOLD that gold bugs like Bix Weirdo and Andy Fraudman promoted for years and now have kicked to the curb for BitCON.

I don’t know when the change in psychology will occur, but this mindless selling is a setup for a very large revaluation…and the more the absurdity beforehand the larger the reaction afterwards...Bill Fleckenstein regarding the miners........LOL...I'm glad I'm not managing other peoples money like you Bill.....its bad enough with my own money in this garbage pit of a sector.....

These type of events occur at bottoms......not tops. When you see the biggest bulls capitulating then you are nearing or AT the bottom and we are seeing the some of the biggest bulls puking. Coin shops are see many retail selling over the past two years. 

Not much positive sentiment on this blog either. Can this continue for a few more weeks or months? Dunno.....and really don't care. It will change and when it does the moves will be breath taking. Enjoy waiting and watching. 

Sunday, February 18, 2018


Sit back and shut up. Better yet just stay stupid and enjoy it. You don't have to suffer any pain that way. At least you may not know its going to be painful until its way late in this cycle. 

Why is it "different" this time? Well for one thing all the measuring metrics that normally function for the public have been CONveniently "disabled". For many years a reasonably accurate measurement of unemployment existed that could be used to "measure" the health of the economy, but all that changed in the late 80s and 90s to make adjustments that initially were made to disguise the effects that NAFTA would have on manufacturing and employment in this country. 


Russian Meddling: Gagging On The Irony.....yet they keep on shoving out the garbage to us...LOL

CPI was also changed in the way we calculated it to keep the public sitting in the slowly boiling water of dollar deflation. It also helped to tamp down some of the cost of living adjustments on Social Security checks to the public. 

Other canary in the coal mine metrics were also changed but no one really cares or you are already aware of this voodoo economic butt paste and I won't bore you. 

In the meantime an awful large amount of very very cheap money for no interest has been put into the system to buy hard assets at relatively low prices and to also invest in many assets that are at nosebleed levels and finally to invest in assets that have almost no chance of surviving if zero interest rates are even REMOTELY returned to just a another 1% above where they are now. 

Eric Sprott: You Can’t Explain These Markets I'm SHOCKED Eric...are you just figuring that out....

In other words free money given to a very select group of chosen investors own a monstrous amount of the world now. THE CRISIS was an excuse to massively enrich themselves in a World Gone Mad. I hope all of you took the time to enjoy the "recovery" and are just as optimistic for the next ten years LOL. gl

Sunday, February 11, 2018


Is this the end of our fiat teet? Is this the part where Shane rides off into the sunset? Is little Joey us? Are the enormous amounts of liquidity disappearing from system? We've become so dependent on this false paradigm of capitalism, that our system would rapidly collapse if this scenario were to occur. How do you think Uber would exist? What about Tesla and its grand solar panel/battery experiment? They would be vaporized in a nano second if we couldn't print dollars. What's worse for the ponzi is they might even be altruistic (they're not)....and print more crazy amounts of fiat as their precious "markets" nosedive and the other regimes pull the plug on our dollar. We could print Trillions and not be able to keep up with the price changes of imported goods and resources. 

This Week Should Be Epic For the Stock Market Bulls As the "All Clear" is Given. BTFDers Will Rush Into Equities 

What's amazing to many of you that understand this false paradigm is just how difficult it is for most of the public to grasp any of this clear and present danger. Its comical when you've explained this to people over and over and in the end they have the same question. "But what can I do about it?"  You just stare at them after the third or fourth time you've gone through it with them. You might even say "I told you what you can do." They just stare at you blankly.

Goldman's Shocking Capitulation: The Buy-The-Dip Era Is Dead, "This Is A Genuine Regime Change" ya tell me

You've talked about what happens when the liquidity is withdrawn. You've talked about what happens when and if they have to open the spigots again. You've talked about what happens to the velocity of money and what happens once inflation gets unleashed. You've told them about Mad Max possibilities. You've told them about stagflationary scenarios. You've warned them about all of the underfunded pensions and the pensions that have already been taken out. 

The Economist: It Appears Market Conspiracy Theorists Were no shit!

You still just get a blank stare in return or an uncomfortable effort at a joke. Again if you press them, they will seriously ask you "what can I do about something that bad if it occurs". Watch their faces when you say the last Great Depression wasn't a Mad Max situation for most people, but an awful lot of people in cities suffered greatly while a small percentage prospered because they saw it coming. In fact people living an agrarian lifestyle that weren't leveraged didn't even notice there was a depression if you talk to their children now that are in their 90s as I do frequently.

So are we now in the "Hard Down" phase of the greatest Ponzi in History? You know what I am talking about. This is where the punch bowl is taken away and an awful lot of the truly "smart money" takes over these assets for pennies on the dollar. Maybe we should just call it for what it really is. Its the "Harvest". Its where the sheep are finally taken in for their just rewards.  We are not "There". We have been there for over a year. Its just becoming more apparent as the first of the "stock market" tremors begin. They might even just rip your hearts out in the next few weeks, but they don't have to. They just might drag you through a series of rallies and flushes creating such mixture of confusion and fear the public begs for the Fed to step in with their next CONtrol grid bailout ploy. Central planning must be maintained for the survival of the "system". The "system" will not only comply but willfully assist the implementation of these "necessary changes" as we enter a Brave New World.