Saturday, April 11, 2009

ABBIE HOFFMAN POST

Love his tenacity and his take is spot on.............

Last year the bubble was oil. Oil was driven by speculators up to $150 a barrel before collapsing. Going short in oil before July was suicide, and going long after July was suicide. The Washington Post indicated that Vitol, a massive commodities trader, at one point held 11% of all oil futures contracts last July. Regulators, and I use the term loosely since they clearly regulate nothing, were stunned to learn what Vitol was really up to. “The CFTC, which learned about the nature of Vitol's activities only after making an unusual request for data from the firm, now reports that financial firms speculating for their clients or for themselves account for about 81 percent of the oil contracts on NYMEX, a far bigger share than had previously been stated by the agency.”I saw that one article… once… funny how nobody really talked about what really happened. Do you have any idea how many people literally starved to death last year so some traders could get rich on a commodities bubble?http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...But I digress..This year’s bubble is bank equities. It is nothing more than a bubble, just like the dot com bubble and the housing bubble and the oil bubble, and it will end much worse. The bubble has been inflated by endless fed pumping, printing, and spending - a trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you've destroyed the known world. This bubble will collapse... quickly... taking the entire equities market with it. Sometime this year, probably within a couple of months.The fundamentals of this economy are sh$t. There are ZERO indicators that things are getting better. Idiot pundits grasp at straws trying to convince us that we are at least getting near the bottom. We are nowhere near the bottom. How long had the govt been telling us that we are 6 months away from recovery? They will keep feeding us that crap for the next several years. The fed even admitted this week that we won’t recover in 2009, but no one paid any attention, they were all too busy buying bank stocks.U3 - the official unemployment figure will hit 10% this year - nearly everyone is conceding that already. U6 - the real figure - will hit 20%. The govt has UNDERREPORTED monthly unemployment figures by an AVERAGE of 121k per month since last august, only to adjust them up later, hoping no one will notice. They have ‘hidden’ close to a million jobs lost that way…http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c...http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c...The average home price in the US dropped double digits in Q4 of 2008 alone. Ponder that for a moment. Home prices have dropped plenty for the past couple of years, but at least another 10% haircut in just those 3 months is HUGE. Foreclosures are now around 40% of all home sales, and anyone trying to sell a house for a price above fire sale is wasting their time. Banks have declared foreclosure moratoriums – why? They are hoping people keep paying on distressed mortgages, but they almost don’t care. They simply don’t want to own any more real estate, since they have to show a loss when they take over the home. This is helping pad their books… alot. Now try to reconcile these facts with the fact that bankers refuse to mark mortgages to reality, and congress is embracing, even demanding this practice. Goldman shows that banks are still valuing loans at an average of over 90% Didn’t Enron teach us anything? Isn’t that why the fools in Congress passed Sarbanes Oxley, to prevent this kind of fraud? We arrest Madoff… the real crooks are running the show.http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/ri...http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/ri...

2 comments:

  1. hey kli...... do you have an email I can contact you at?

    ReplyDelete
  2. hey kli.... What is your opinion on GS earnings? Will they lie, cheat, and bulls(*& sending the Dow skyward like WFC did?

    ReplyDelete