Sunday, April 5, 2009


I luv this game...OK I am gonna take a little different slant...I have respect for most of the calls giving 860 the hit tomorrow or the next day.....but watch will make a nice trade there with some tight stops if ya wanna throw in some shorts tomorrow...everyone assumes we take out 857 soon and max 860 to 870.....we probably do..but I will be watching the number 845 tomorrow....stochs maxin ..rsi gettin there...resistances gettin heavy...I just cant see the risk/reward playing for long positions here...short term shorts are about to ring the bell...stay small....look for upside move in market early and watch 845...I think its a key.... if a  good volume take out and vix holds we max at 860 or so......well guess what bottom number...why .....cause it is way down least 826 for bounce damn I did give one.....and if you risk anything beyond small here....then you are dumber than I buying SRS 


  1. I have been back in Arizona for the past 2 weeks (I head back to Thailand on Tuesday) and in addition to my job I have been doing personal research on real estate as well. Things are worse here than has been reported. Many empty free standing buildings that were built and never occupied. Business strip malls that were the rave a couple of years ago are empty with for rent signs on them. Apartment complexes are offering free rent and rents at $650 for a 2 bedroom. The town house I bought 2 years ago appraised at $165k. Today it is appraised at 125K. Guess I hit the bid right on that one since I paid 125K for it.
    Single family homes that sold in the 150k to 200k range 3 years ago are now selling out of foreclosure at sub 100k. This market is actually strong since the amount of 200k and under forclosures is actually trending down.
    The big hit is in luxury homes. Places like Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, which is where many of the pro sports players, celebs and execs live are having auctions and selling 1MM+ homes for bids of 300k. The amount of homes in this range that are going into foreclosure is on the rise. I plan to pick up one of these when I return in July.
    A side note I found interesting is that the majority of the bad loans were originated through Countrywide, now BAC.

  2. Kli do you see anything changing due to short seller rules chaning on the 8th or voting on change the 8th...could be a trap for the shorts don't you think?

  3. It will be a final shot at the short etfs for will temporarily cripple them...but overall it will not alter your overall ability to use them once the dust settles...IMO....I am very very nervous holding ANY significant etf positions short during P2

  4. Temo .....tangible assets will be needed if the hyperinflation scenario is successful...I dont know which way it goes deflation hyperinflation stagflation.....have to be prepared and cover yourself

  5. "Bears get ready to roll" is what my college FB team always said. Good article on Bloomberg about our banks loans...


  6. kli,

    How long do you think it will take for "the dust to settle" before it's safe to use short ETFs?

    If you feel nervous with short ETFs during P2, why r u holding SRS? Just a quick trade?

  7. I am very nervous with any Double inverse etfs until the MtM is resoved ...I honestly want them to do we can get resolution...but I dont see that occurring until 750 area.......

  8. i forgot to ask:

    why will uptick change "cripple" short ETFs?

    (they don't actually sell stocks short, they use swaps.)

    thanks for explaining.

  9. I thought MtM was already resolved. Do you mean the uptick hearing?

    And what does S&P7 50 have to do with either MtM or uptick?