Wednesday, September 16, 2009


Baffled... 1. To frustrate or check (a person) as by confusing or perplexing; stymie. Art is stymied. Mail him the blog ....better yet send him the link on this post today. Get over it Art. This is the game. Its called Quantitative Easing (QE). Monetizing the debt. Your old ass has never been through anything like this so of course you are confused. Have another single malt. This is for the big boyz (btw I am not one of those big boyz). But if you watched Art today he gave you a great piece of advice.......he is on the sidelines... He admits he has missed the last several weeks of the bull move.

Understand the significance of this. A seasoned veteran albeit slightly pickled......openly states he is scared shitless of this market.... I love it. Poor Art. Remember how you were advised to play this. Either on the sidelines for past 2weeks or scalping on the miners or playing some of the spec plays like CVM (OMG did you see that the last 2 days).

Back to earth .....I got dizzy on that last long shot... watch YRCW and LCC for pump jobs ...but always have stops and play on gaps. Still trying my DTO shots. UNG no fkn idea but have played it. Anyway not important what I do.

Watch the dollar some of the smart money that throws me red meat says that they could be trying to front run the cycles. Could be. But if that happens you will see the USD crack 75 so keep your eyes peeled. Not buying it yet. gl.......


  1. Do you find it disturbing like I do that SKF, SDS, UUP, etc (any powershares ETF) are all pure counterparty risk to DB? I learned a while back that they don't actually short the market, they just issue derivatives promising to track the index.

  2. Morla, You are mentioning proshares with skf, sds.

    Yes uup is powershares along with dba dbc and so fourth.

    What is your warning about powershares? I own DBA and DBC.

  3. Yeah sorry I wasn't clear hehe. Powershares I read is mostly derivative-based. Proshares uses a mixture of things, which include derivatives. I'm worried that certain black swans could hurt any ETF exposed to the derivatives monster.

    I'm looking at GRZZX to dissuade my fears..

  4. Simplistic answer only from me......beware of all leveraged etfs.....unless underlying securities exist and in the leveraged etfs....that never exists.....then trading very short term only is advised.......obviously the mathematical decay is another issue....but yes your risk is going to be tremendous in another stressed downturn.....such as the oft discussed P3......I would be MORE concerned about the timing of 2012-2014 where the real unwind of the QE/monetization may destroy all of these leveraged etfs

  5. "Certain of these financial instruments will also subject the Funds to counterparty risk and credit risk, which could result in significant losses for the Funds."


    I'm probably reading too much into it but I just don't like being connected to the banking system that I don't see as anywhere near healthy yet.

  6. Morla this is not an issue imo yet......that is least for the near term

  7. Best bet is to short the levered etfs. there will be a time to hit the levered long etfs. maybe soon:

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  9. Only question still left is where the parabolic run fails either short of the 100 week moving average (S&P 1125) or the 200 week moving average (S&P 1250).

    As for natural gas, now that everybody has been trained like Pavlov's dog for over the past year and JPM, GS, and MS have secured their hold on this winter's futures contracts.

    CVM has turned from highly profitable to highly dangerous trade.

    PM Miners and physical PM are the hedge against the monetization blowing up sooner rather than later. Another week or two of gold above 1000 would set the potential stage for a very violent breakout of the ascending triangle or inverse H&S going back to the beginning of 2008, target of 1400 seems absurd at this point, would imply either war in the MidEast and/or the US dollar index going to 55-60.

  10. JP some traders are in 401ks self directed or sep accts that do not permit short trading but they can buy the etfs......anyway are correct though......... and nice post red