Wednesday, October 21, 2009


This is why I issued the stop trading and watch recommendation. Its an algo slaughterhous. HFTs beating the hell out of every little trader. If you don't believe me look at today. Nothing but stop shopping. This effort may go on for days. By the time they're through with you ...your account will be shredded.

Look at oil. DTO looks like Custer's last stand. I know. I still have a small position and even small is slaughter. If oil closes over 80 then watch out 85.....

It is really unconscionable with the real pain the average joe (sorry joe) is experiencing to ramp oil to this level. But what the hay. Its bonus time and wolves are hungry.

Watch gold and dollar here. If dollar stays down at close below 75 its over.

Enjoy this year. Its the end of the facade. Start preparing. Get your own fiscal houses in order. Have dry food...rice ...beans ....beans are great dry protein sources. It appears that Immreds accelerated hell is approaching. Either dollar strengthens or the prices of essential start moving up hard. Check your gas prices tonight. You think the consumer can handle this? No way.

Someone asked me about the Fed.......The game they are playiing is a virtual high wire act over a pond full of hungry crocodiles. The information they have is way beyond what we have available. I hope their road is the correct choice for all of our sakes. If I were religious I would say my prayers are with them. We are headed into a meat grinder as an economy and as a country. You will find out soon what you are made out of. Do you have the fortitude to lead your family through this. Can you serve as the example of strength and courage that will keep the wolves of fear at bay in their lives. In other words YOU are the one that has to step up for your family during the coming tsunami. YOU take the heat. And YOU give them the guidance. Start now by explaining why conservation and excess is important for our ecology. That is much better than creating more fear by saying "we gotta save our dollars ...we are about to go broke". GL gang


  1. short DTO with both hands today,heheeee!

  2. DTO's price soon will reach the SKF level, short the heck out of DTO.

  3. oil is heading toward 100, dollar is toast.

  4. Market sell off started when Dollar index broke 75, what the media is telling you in regard to banks downgraded or executive bonus crap is just noise news. The real reason is market sees the decline of dollar below 75 and oil hitting 82 a major negative. Let's see if they start the short squeeze on dollar, use it to buy can food and store it.

  5. Kli - Your blog and good sense have been a real help. Please keep it up throughout this continuing mess. GL to you and your family, too.

  6. Hard to say if it's a few days or a few months until the ugliness hits Joe Six Pack squarely in the face.

    Try to limit your trading in this meat grinder, structure longer term positions or asset allocation in the fallout of monetization now, war soon, and flu mutation later. Move some of your allocation out of paper/electronic financial assets into physical bullion, food, ammo and basic supplies like toilet paper and spare parts.

    The big players and puppet masters know what's coming since they help set it up, what they don't know is the ultimate fallout from their plans and other black swan events. Kress shows you the cycle not the magnitude of the peak/trough or short term time compression/expansion.

    Oil is going up not because of civilian consumer demand, but a combination of political favors and military activities.

    If the dollar continues to get ripped a new one, you may not see a significant pullback in oil or gold.

    If you want to play oil long or short, you are better off doing so with the Petrobras or PetroChina than ETFs like USO, DXO or DTO.

    As for UNG, the cotango games will limit the upside breakout in the short term.

    Time is moving against CVM in the short term as the immediate concern is shortages in traditional vaccines.

    As for the SP500, the 100 week moving average ceiling held today so it's either all over for a short/longer bit or we start gunning for the 200 week moving average at around 1250. I don't really care, and any trading strategy should totally disregard which topping action plays out on the S&P500.

    Basically the game is to survive the upcoming financial slaughter and bad times.

  7. Great info all. I will watch Frontline again tonight after dinner...

    GREAT SHOW for those that have not seen it.

    Immred and Kli, thank you and to the others as well. I will prepare some more and pray. Tomorrow some shopping and looking for a generator. We need that for winter outages anyway...

  8. Red,

    There will be no war with Iran, the reason oil is going up has nothing to do with any war. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq continues which is old news and has nothing to do with why oil is going up. I can assure you there will be no war with Iran.

  9. I GOT IT!!!! Watson,,, We are seeing the tipping point toward,, I could be wrong, but,

    drum roll please,,,, And soon comes:


    Oh, that's very bad.


  11. the USD closed above 75.

    from here it could go either way i do not care.

    if the dollar rallies the market dumps
    if the dollar dumps the market dumps

    i am happy for the moment in tza

    at the end of the day the dollar came back 75.00 a major inflection point.

    I undersatnd the fed cannot let the dollar strengthen but maybe a techincal bounce they cannot control...

    We shall see.

    any way

    live chickens check
    orange trees check
    avacados check
    rice beans check
    escape vehicle check
    booze need more
    ammo need more

    gl all.


  12. Blacksheep,

    You are starting to get dial tone, here comes the truth which is behind door #1, heheee!

  13. Kli, In his supercycle article, Droke recommended a 15-20% core position of gold or gold equivalent. Right now I have 25% gold/silver miners and 20% cash. Should I still be buying miners on the dips?

  14. no beans but I have a large pair of balls, will that help? ;)

    hey thanks for picking up JDA on your blogroll, I've returned the favor. Great stuff going on over here. The world may be going to hell but at least there are a few of us willing to stand on the soapbox and announce its unceremonious demise.


  15. I will leave it up to buyers of miners on will depend how far they push the dollar....lets stay tuned...but yes buy on dips and welcome JDA....

  16. What is really crazy is we have so much in this country and we have put ourselves (our bankers) into this mess.

  17. Human it what you wish...but I prefer the term law of nature...Joe likes to say they have no specific time line the act on......they act on their stay tuned

  18. anon,

    Ya it took a while to get dial tone and still it is intermitent and with static..which cost me lots of $$$.

    But I am learning..the SKF board has really led me to people who care and full of knowledge.

    Like KLI and many others.

    Imred, palmerjoe, fly, daneric, the list goes on

    the blogs. the list goes on.

    all free.

    what an education.

    thank you all.


  19. blacksheep,

    The breaking point for dollar from the overall market perspective is between 70 and 75, which means up to now dollar weakness helped the overall market to advance with the help of print money poured into the market. If dollar goes below 75, that's the sign to the market that STAGFLATION is in the horizon and that will cause non-commodity sectors to drop. It's a misconception for those who believe overall market will keep going up as long as Dollar remains weak, the breaking point is between 70 and 75.

  20. from skf tonite.......

    think that is an oversimplification. There was a commodities bubble last year, so this is not a good example. Recent charts are showing much higher relative rise in commodities relative to the dollar decline than the rise in S&P 500. A weak dollar can only go so far in driving up equity prices, at some point the equity valuations are overcome by the cost of commodities leading to lower valuations due to lower earning potential because of the increased costs of consumption and production, while the commodities still retain value since they are much more correlated with the value of money and global demand. Commodities don't have to worry about an earnings component like stocks do.

  21. kli,

    Exactly, that's why there is a breaking point in Dollar from which the overall market will start declining if our currency keeps going down.

  22. Check out this tread from SRS:

    Sounds authoritative, in a position of knowledge. Good exchange none the less...

  23. All,

    We could start to see a shift between the price relationship between gold and the broad market. Gold and silver are starting to hold up in value while stocks sell off on big days. For example, Wednesday’s sell-off in equities did not have much effect on precious metals. It means money is moving out of stocks and into gold and silver bullion as a safe haven regardless of whether dollar gets stronger or not.