Friday, October 16, 2009

TRADING THE BEAR OF ALL BEARS

After lunch today with one of my good friends, I felt compelled to comment to many of you tonight. Like most of you that probably read this blog my friend does not take my advice completely. And to thank God. He missed the SRS debacle completely. But when I gave my uber bear call and advised all to cease trading over a month ago. He (and I) persisted.

He went all in on DTO and is getting his ass handed to him. He looked hagard, depressed, a beaten man. I asked him if he had slept and he replied NO...He had been awake since 3 am watching bloomberg and oil futures. Dave is a nice guy .....works hard ....and has a good understanding of markets. So it occurred to me that he is probably representative of a number of you.

He was literally in a state of shock. He had been an oil trader for a number of years and had a good understanding of the market. And just like a lot of you is stunned by the seeming bizarre movement of the trade. Dollar strengthening .....oil UP. I told him that the squeeze could last longer but he wasn't listening. His strategy was in tatters.

Anyone that has traded for a long time has moments like these like most of you are and have experienced.

Two simple pieces of advice ......Get out of the market and go to physical gold with three buy orders over next 8 weeks.

Two ....stay in cash right now and wait for miners to pull back then buy and hold

I on the other hand will play with a little of my account for gaps.......and continue to survive...but am mostly in cash and waiting.....gl and remember ALL of us are in this mess.

2 comments:

  1. Your friend's sad story is added proof that we continue to throw TAs and Fundies under the bus. I wish him well! Texasblondie

    ReplyDelete
  2. Spend some spare time with friends and family, plus get some sleep and relaxation.

    Don't forget to stock up on food and Alpo for the coming cold winter.

    As for oil it is a combination of the dollar and insider information on upcoming geopolitical tensions and political favors back to OPEC to hold US Bonds a little longer. People in the NE US cannot all convert to natural gas this winter and heating oil will remain the predominant choice of heating there this cold winter, less sunspots and jetstream.

    There should be some deflationary pressures for a little bit once the H1N1 mutates severely late this flu season, but that is still months away.

    Rest along with gold, debt free cash in multiple FDIC insured accounts or different commodity based currency CDs like Canada or Australia, along with cases of Spam and Alpo is the prudent sideline strategy for the moment.

    ReplyDelete