Tuesday, March 31, 2009

DAILY NUMBERS

Hard to read right now... but I can't see the numbers changing in spite of futures down hard right now........there is a massive head and shoulders on the 10 day which may play out several ways....you can look at that yourself. What I see from the bulls is an attempt right out of the box to push the opening green and to take out 812....they should fail. This is not high on my list as likely....but watch it if they do. More likely is the bears will march this down tomorrow and go after 769 da big number.....should meet some fight there for sure....757 is the minimum for this wave down on danos chart........but 769 has a nice ring tomorrow....wtf knows ...I have small TBT and smaller srs.....will add a little more srs if they push this to 812...gl

Aftershocks or Preshocks???

Still puzzled by close...I cant decide what happened....implications are not good for bulls though....
Overseas is cracking http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adHYb_oUweYQ&refer=home as I blog. Our futures are down over 100 already....so we are setting up negatively already. Europe should open nervously..sooooo.....gotta think tomorrows opening without job news surprise could be ugly. Dano's EW is showing down tomorrow and that is my sentiment. So I advise all of you to go all in long the market...kidding....I think.
I will check for my numbers tonight for my morning numbers post and may post again later if overseas brings news tonight. gl gang

Big Bear Move at Close....

Stunning close on extreme volume....probably won't find a clear reason, but I have to wonder if it wasn't a major liquidation redemption. Anyway it was one of the more bizarre moves I have seen without a clear explanation readily available. One thing for sure it sets up bad for bulls. Still no visibility here.....good traders on the SKF are gunshy.....so it is just fine to sit tight and watch here.

After I have a chance to cheat around and do my research I will give you my plan tomorrow..but dont hold your breath for any major committments.......right now it looks like any rally tomorrow AM should be faded......but that close may gap us down.....later

THE DAILY NUMBERS

I will try to make this a regular feature....I usually go to be with the next days numbers in my head but can be shaken if morning overseas actions seem to be countertrend or some event in our morning news distracts me....so I will put these numbers down for reference during the trading day.....there are many traders smarter than I and PLEASE feel free to comment on these numbers....in many ways this is the most important part of the trade.....at least for scalps.
And the numbers today are.......drumroll....802...war zone....and 768...dont see that one in play but the bears want it...gl you will need it today...my crystal ball's light is out...So I am playing small...I own SPY here and will dump at 795 or 804....and TBT...dont have a clue what to do with it..So I will just watch it for now.

Wednesdays G20 Fireworks ...GET READY

This is one of my predictions that seems simple enough to see coming....so I am sure I will be wrong... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZa_z4n.jGgg&refer=home
The pitchfork crowd will have an opportunity to guage publick sentiment at the G20 meeting on Wednesday.....I am suspicious ..that the level of protest may overwhelm the police and some nasty repercussions could result...More than likely they will contain the protest and keep then from shutting down the financial district...but it is going to be a real battle that I am watching...OK enough of that ..I'll get off of that horse and see what happens. I just keep my eyes on canary in the coal mines. Brown is under intense pressure at home.

Monday, March 30, 2009

G20 May Become G19 In AM...........

My thoughts tonight are the effects that the G20 may play with regard to market dynamics.....right now I just can't see anything profound coming out of the meeting....Sarcozy is posturing but the big 3 Germany US and Britain are saying no to a global regulator....so that one is dead. Of course we want our own regulator or how in the hell would we be able to keep the game fixed? Ahhh but there are some unknowns we will be running into this time.
Our standing in one year has been obliterated worldwide. We are now owned by countries that are beginning to call our bluff. The good old boys network is undergoing a rebalancing...much like the DOW. China's Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan is now scolding the US and developed countries with strong rhetoric http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asHMFxCnlgFA This will further weaken any agreement between the old guard occurring...
Maybe the easiest target will be the Hedgies...although their lobbies are fighting hard too.... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=news?archive&sid=axfvAHiMsYTU Any control on Hedgies will only strengthen the largest of the Hedge funds (which are the biggest problems) so market will shrug.
All in all I really see the G20 as a non-event...unless....and this is more insidious....Watch the riots. They may be very unsettling for market sentiment...especially on Wednesday. That is the day that 4 major groups have plans to attack Londons financial district. World confidence just can't catch a break and I think this won't play well.....Alas thank G Thurday and FASB is coming...welcome relief for a muddy next two days....Remembe gang If we are in Primary 2 ...then Thursday should be clear skies and sunshine...luv this game.

Today's Market

Todays market action was not unexpected after 2 weeks of hard pumping. As my man Dano said yesterday in his T/A this is still in a primary 2 wave and my longer term bias is up....my market moves are restrained here with thursdays fasb news coming....if you believe in Market Makers control...and I do...then you have to be prepared for market correction before thursday run-up. I will add to my current TBT position and SPY position if market moves to 750...
We are in the Bear of all bears....and I expect this blog to last for years...Primary 2 will last for months and bring hope......only to end in despair later this year...gl readers