Thursday, April 30, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for FRIDAY

OK this is it.......this spring is gonna get sprung....jeeeeeze....its gotta break out...possible we see 900 ....short the chit out of it......more likely we fill the 854 gap early........then it gets wild...should bounce there.....and make a corrective to 870 area.......then we turn over and start some serious five wave impulse moves first stop will be 841 tomorrow or monday....then we remeasure........and see some gaps to fill ahead.......look at danos charts.....gl traders I still want that 766 gap fill

NUTCRACKER TIME

I posted a lot on skf today.....that usually happens when we are reaching an inflection point or when I have maxed out my shorts now 30%.....cross currents are reaching an extreme........the flu has our ppt on full alert and the MMs are sick and tired of not being able to flush this market due to the flu's systemic risk...dano is setting up a scenario I find compelling.....if you are out of this right now and have ammo watch for the market to push to 900 and buy like a mthrfkr short......go at least 25% sds.........anyway this should selloff very soon....but dont bet the farm...disclosure ...now heavy faz and srs unchanged

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for THURSDAY

Can it be that no corrective wave occurs until 920.....stay tuned.....this is possible...not probable.  I will add shorts only at that level......yikes.  I should have taken my own advice and not traded this market two weeks ago....but I did not....and will HOLD tight.   With the flu pandemic out there all bets are off PPT buyer of last resort can run this to 920.  We will get correctives but when..WTFK.  Look for bears to gain some strength if the bulls loose 870 tomorrow....push for 845.. gl gang

FLU A BLACK SWAN EVENT...

Could this be why our market is behaving strangely in the face of awful news....maybe.....at least it has to be considered.....could our government have convened a weekend briefing that detailed the threat of the coming flu and its potential impact in such detail that our President issued a directive to the PPT that this event poses a systemic risk to our markets and our economy.....maybe......I suggest you research swine flu and Taleb's theory...it will make you think twice about being long this market.......this market is at great risk....

The Black Swan theory (in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's version) refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations. Unlike the philosophical "black swan problem", the "Black Swan" theory (capitalized) refers only to events of large consequence and their dominant role in history. Black Swan events may also be called outliers.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for WEDNESDAY

No change ....still in the zone......bears will try to take out 840......bulls pushin to take out 875.....gonna take some profit tomorrow if we get to 846..........if they are going to take out 870 they gotta pullback a little......anyway they are grinding out shorts........keep sniping the stops.....algos are on overdrive..........flu will keep the PPT in the market......hard to beat them..gl..holding faz and srs..

THE CLOSING TAPE

Well traders.....did they knock your stops silly.....hehehee.....watta game...as predicted they would keep the market stable and pick off your stops......its their game here.......With the PPT back in the market they can't sell it off yet. The market is too vulnerable with the swine flu hanging over it. Until this is resolved be aware the PPT IS in this market. Swine flu IS a systemic risk and is not going away for several days......maybe weeks.....if the news gets terrible PPT will have to let it slide.......gl

READ IT...YOU WILL KNOW WHERE WE R GOIN

This came off the skf board...from tue 07 poster.........

If the fed implements a proxy for -5% interest rate:“In 1920 a loaf of bread in Germany cost 2 marks. By June 1923 when the hyperinflation was in full flow, a loaf of bread in Germany cost 430,000,000,000 marks. Prices rose by the hour. People sitting in bars or coffee shops found that their second drink could cost twice as much as their first. Images of the era include children using piles of banknotes as building blocks or toys, and Germans wallpapering their houses with banknotes [Anyone dying for a room wallpapered with 100 dollar bills? Give it a year, and you might just be in luck]. Workers were paid up to three times a day. The wages would be collected in a wheelbarrow and taken down to the shops to be spent as quickly as possible, before prices rose any further.Shopkeepers found it almost impossible to make money. Unless they could spend their takings on new supplies immediately, they would be unable to restock their shops with goods. Many shopkeepers simply closed their doors, or opened as little as possible. Goods became hard to come by. Farmers refused to bring their produce to the towns as the money they received was worthless by the time they came to spend it. There were riots in Berlin and other German cities, and some workers organized parties to go to the countryside and steal the farmers' produce out of the ground. Trade unions bargained with employers for regular wage increases, but these failed to keep pace with rising prices. At first workers believed they were doing well, but this feeling soon disappeared as they struggled to support their families. Those who were reliant on pensions from the government fared very badly. The government failed to raise benefits fast enough to keep up with price rises and pensioners struggled to survive. People with investments in bank accounts saw their value vanish overnight. Any income generated was worthless. Tax receipts for the government stopped, as people realized that they could reduce their taxes to virtually nothing to pay if they waited a few months to pay. With money increasingly worthless, the government lacked the incentive to collect taxes. By October 1923 just 1% of government expenditure was covered by taxes. To make up the shortfall the government simply printed new notes to cover the remaining 99% of expenditure.Many Germans gained from the hyperinflation. People with property were able to ride out the storm, while those with debts or mortgages saw their value disappear and their debt payments effectively end. Businesses were able to borrow money, spend it on new machinery, and then pay back virtually nothing to the banks. Bankruptcies became almost unknown. In 1913 around 10,000 German firms went out of business due to their debts. In 1923 the figure was less than 200. The speed with which Germans had to spend their money meant that demand in the shops was actually higher than before the period of hyperinflation. In response to this companies employed more workers, and unemployment effectively ended by 1923. Banking jobs, for example, rose from 100,000 in 1913 to 375,000 in 1923. Companies opened new factories to supply the high demands of Germans desperate to part with their cash. The German government also benefited in at least one way. During World War I the government had borrowed vast sums to finance the war effort. As the hyperinflation rose, the government saw its debts being wiped out."

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/04/key-points-about-hyperinflation.html

MUST READ ARTICLE

Very well done..........titled....The Red Pill

http://walkermarketview.blogspot.com/

Monday, April 27, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for TUESDAY

Nuttin changed.......still lookin for 840......then my gap fills 822 and 810.......bulls want over 860 tomorrow then push to 875.........watta game.......flu pressure remains... PPT will keep selloff stable....no panic..........gl

SWINE FLU UPDATE

My view of this situation has not changed ......we are still at risk......no reason to panic unless evidence expands that this strain has a higher morbidity than has been seen to date.....on the other hand I also believe it will be hyped into a potential frenzy......

Monday April 27th 2009
The WHO has raised the pandemic alert level to 4, the highest since the scale was developed in 2005.
Mexico’s government is ordering closed schools nationwide as the suspected death toll from swine flu climbed to 149.
State Department to issue warning urging Americans to avoid all non-essential travel to Mexico
World counting down to pandemic, says top virologist

Sunday, April 26, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for MONDAY

Change it up.....822....812.....766......My gap fill targets..........overdue for some down side action this week.......first stop 845.................as JP Moy said.....look for volatility.......

PRACTICAL FLU ADVICE

The antivirals Relenza and Tamiflu will most likely become very scarce....since this blog only reaches a few hundred people I don't think this is inappropriate to suggest that you consider a few precautions.....If you are someone that has concomitant health issues you may want to go to your physician or a convenience clinic and get a prescription of either drug to keep on hand as quickly as possible.......these medications are the most useful if taken as early as possible with the onset of the illness..........many recommend in a true pandemic which we may enter.....that you initiate these prophylactically if you are at a health risk........so just be aware this might escalate quickly and you need to be foreward thinking.........gl and see ya

GEORGE CARLIN KNEW....MISS YA BUD....

"Its called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it" ....thnx Palmer for this Sunday humor........hehehehe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGyObuH3WTY

Saturday, April 25, 2009

TOPICAL MUST READ

Off the skf board...........must read ..............tamiflu will race........

The new Swine Flu (H1N1) could have devastating effects on U.S. GDP, and worsen the economic downturn to all new levels. It is too early to tell if this is going to be a pandemic. IMHO the WHO could be overeacting to this. The fact is that it is too early to tell. We'll all have to wait until more information becomes available.However, this is a good time to have a closer look at what a new pandemic, OR a new severe flu strain, could do to U.S. economic activity. If we take SARS as an example (which is probably adequate to assume at this point), Singapore GDP shrank 11.4% within 3 months as a result of closure of hotels, less people on planes, less people eating at restaurants, less people in shopping malls, etc (see "1" below). SARS in Singapore was FEAR driven as a result of explosive media coverage of the event. Considering that the population in Singapore in 2003 was roughly 4 million (see "2" below). Total SARS cases during the downturn were 238 cases with 33 deaths (see "1" below). In the entire region in 2003, there were a total of 8,437 infections with 813 deaths (see "3" below). What's most notable here is that relative to the entire population of Singapore of 4 million people, only 238 infections and 33 deaths caused an 11.4% quarterly GDP contraction. Even a small number of local infections, can cause substantial damage if the regional numbers are much higher. However, what is not known is if Americans will react similarly in spending habits as people in Singapore, in the event H1N1 is similar in cause/effect as SARS. IMO if there are similar or worsening numbers than SARS, this could be devastating to our economy at this point in time. We're just starting to see consumer spending take a better turn and now it could entirely contract even further than before. Our government will be helpless to bring a cure to the economic effects. Taking a look quick look at what stocks may fair best during this time, I firmly believe the following will do the best:3M (symbol MMM) - Primary manufacturer of facial protective masks (sure to be a hot commodity). http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/arch...Any Tamiflu manufacturers (generic or not) - Currently Tamiful is proving effective against H1N1. http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/2...Amazon (AMZN) - If people can't shop in a mall, they will be ordering everything online to prevent exposure to the virus.And some of the one's that will do the worst:All Financial stocks - A sudden, huge reduction in GDP, will make the stress test look like a walk in the park. Restaurants, Hotels, anything travel related...God bless everyone, and let's just hope that this does not turn into a pandemic. References:1) http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz...2) http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/res...3) http://www.emedicinehealth.com/severe_ac...Other reading:http://avianflu.futurehs.com/?p=1539

Friday, April 24, 2009

JD DAVIDSON TUNE

I apologize if you are offended.........but you shouldn't probably be on this blog if you are.........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8

TRUEBEAR POST

Truebear is a poster on skf also...........here are his thoughts today.....

Speaking as a confirmed paranoiac, I think this is all an incredibly well coordinated effort to push the market up, with the long term perspective that changing psychology will create this optimistic spirit that will get people spending, banks loaning, houses selling, companies hiring, all admirable objectives IMHO. They said they will do whatever they have to do and they are living up to that, even if it includes deceiving us about the true bank situation, and probably a lot of other stuff we'll never know. Jack Welsh and Obama were guests one morning on Squawk Box. Kernan (far right) and Welsh, Republican to the core, actually seemed to like Obama. Welsh even reached out, asking if he could give Obama one piece of advice. He suggested that Obama might think about toning down his bashing of corporations because they are really just large numbers of people, employ much of the work force and drive the economy. Obama thanked him, flattered him for his wisdom and experience, and the next day gave a campaign speech that was really heavy on corporate bashing. The next time Welsh was on, he mentioned his disappointment at that.When it was close to election time, Welsh was on again, and he just gushed about what a great campaign Obama had run, what a quick study and phenominal manager he was running such a perfectly coordinated campaign. And that was after Obama just blew off his advice, so it wasn't a case of an Obama partisan, but I think his purely objective opinion. The point.....I agree with Welsh, and what we're seeing is that same quick study manager, using the bully pulpit in ways no other president has, just as he used the internet in ways that blew all his opponents away one by one, including the politically savvy Hillary AND Bill. He also is using his henchmen to support his efforts, and it is working. The media seems to be getting on the bandwagon out of self interest, profits I hope, not out of self imposed censorship from even the most subtle persuasion or intimidation. It has cost me quite a bit, and I attribute that to my own stubborness, kept trading the market I thought it should be, and thinking it should be falling in light of the ongoing bad news (not the made up stuff, the real stuff). Ratigan was whisked off the air for his blunt expression of his thoughts on what's going on. The Fast Money crew seems like they are trying to stay on the right side of the line rather than join Ratigan. Even Rick Santelli today, when he made some remarks questioning the validity off the stress test, the results and other numbers and news that are ludicrous to any sane person, paused and actually said something like "Those who are still brave enough to say anything" and it was almost like he was looking over his shoulder. Could it be that this is a slightly modified version of Orwell's all influencing all controlling Big Brother? Okay, gonna put my tin foil hat back on and shut up now.

IMMRED POST

This too shall come to pass.........SKF poster Immred's simple statement.....

If both the longs and shorts stop drinking the kool aid and eating the pudding, they will have to throw in some candy (volatility)in a dramatic manner like October to entice playing a little more in the crooked casino. It will probably work the first time possibly setting up the rally into the summer. The subsequent attempt in the fall will fail, as anyone not wiped out by then by the whipsawing will be completely cynical and bitter to trade long or short and will cash out of imaginary leveraged paper assets and hold remaining cash, hard assets and survival supplies to weather out the coming storm.

I could not agree more with Red's post above.....and will add ...the unintended consequences of market manipulation will be terminal eventually for the market.........

Thursday, April 23, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for FRIDAY

Those dirty MMs are wedging for their lives to buy time while they knock the stops to hell and continue to recapitalize the Com Re...watta game.....tomorrow bulls need to knock out 860....and bears are goin to make a run for 818....that would be bloody .....so I look for 828.....bulls are confident again and shorts are doubting themselves.....just the way MMs like it.....gl gang

EVENING COMMENTARY

As many long time skf bloggers recall last september.....some of us screamed foul over the September weekend when Paulson bailed out Merrill ....we knew it was a scam and said so. Of course we were tagged as conspiracy nuts... now we know the "rest of the story". We of course were spot on. The BAC shareholders and taxpayers were screwed. Ken Lewis was thrown under the bus as he should be and Hank Paulson is retired with his 800 million tax free from his service. Ben Bernanke is still pulling strings for the big banks ...and the sheeple are still getting fleeced. I fear for my country and my family, but that will mean nothing unless the sheeple wake up. Just listen to this tripe..........

The allegations in Cuomo’s letter suggest Paulson and other policymakers may have resorted to breaking securities laws in order to protect a fragile financial system, according to Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at Cincinnati-based Huntington Asset Advisors, which has about $13.3 billion under management and doesn’t own Bank of America Corp. stock.
“Everyone involved knew that was a clear violation, that’s material non-public information, so basically we just closed the rule book during the crisis and said we don’t care, we need to keep the lights on, and we’ll deal with that manana,” Sorrentino said. “Logic went out the window and they were just acting out of fear,” he said. It was “completely panic mode.”

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis failed to tell shareholders about mounting losses at Merrill Lynch & Co. because of pressure from federal regulators to complete the takeover, according to New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.
Henry Paulson, who was Treasury secretary last December, may have threatened to remove the management and directors of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank if they didn’t comply, Cuomo wrote in a letter to Congress that was released today. Lewis also was told not to disclose his opposition to the Merrill deal because of “staggering” deterioration at the brokerage, or the regulator’s action, according to Cuomo.

THE DAILY NUMBERS...FOR THURSDAY

This is it .........the big Kahuna.....the big enchilada. Mega day in the works...... OK OK I will knock off the hyperbole.......but if the MMs push this green at the opening I am adding more shorts......this gun is cocked and aimed right at their crooked fat heads. Look for a weak effort to take 860 back......but it aint gonna happen. Look for the bears to have the steam today and MMs clear the deck for a ride to 779.........this corrective has to happen.....they have managed to recapitalize the banks and CRE so they have accomplished their mission......they have destroyed the shorts.........so it is time........wont be straight down though........lets trade um to hell...........gl...oh and we should touch 818..........I like the sound of it.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

MMs STILL IN CONTROL OF THE TAPE

They played this tape all day.........shook out stops all day long..........hope you held your ground shorties.........Don't pay attention to AAPL earnings..all baked in........Market is in down corrective this week..........they just couldn't climb over my 860 number..........must have read my blog......heheheh...I will tell ya a secret sum day

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Well well well.....aren't those MMs sneaky settled right on 850......pulled the bulls back in and slaughtered my shorts.......Oh well.....readded my shorts I sold on monday.......and will have to hope it isn't too bloody for me in AM........look for red premarket as corrective waves play out with the move to 860.....they may fall short 859.....anyway doesn't matter......I won't get aggressive and neither should you........bears should get rewarded with patience....they want to push through 830 and resume march to 779....gl watta mess

Monday, April 20, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Now the trading begins.....Bulls will try to push this  over 850 tomorrow....will add shorts there if they do......look for bears to try and take out 822......they want 810 in a hurry.......they won't get it tomorrow......if they get it to 822 ....I will try to reduce shorts and readd on retrace to 835.......lotta numbers..............oh and dont forget danos 779......that is gonna go........not tomorrow...gl.....patience  .....they will be stop hunting tomorrow

WEIRD STATS............

Took this off danos blog comments...................

Interesting find on price and time relationships: -----11/21/08 741.02 to 01/06/09 943.85 --- 30 trading days 202.83 pts-------01/06/09 943.85 to 03/06/09 666.79 40 trading days 277.06 pts,--------- 03/06/09 666.79 to 04/17/09 875.63---- 30 trading days 208.84 pts ............30/40 =.75.......... 208.84/277.06= .75....is 741 to 943 A, 943 to 666 B and 666 to 875 C. Also it traveled 147 calendar days, very close to 144 fib #. 383 trading days from 10/17/08 top (377 is fib #) ....231 from wave 2 top (233 is fib#) and to top it off, it looks like 13 trading days from the March 30 low of 779.81Max Cherry

Sunday, April 19, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Market is screaming for pullback............longs are stressed...........so look for big pullback this week to finally let the steam off the pot..........MMs will probably not do much to surprise now....maybe run to my last call of 880........even 900.....but insanity cannot sustain..dont bet the farm short here............but ....should see 810 this week.....I like 843 touch tomorrow...but its all hocus pocus

Saturday, April 18, 2009

ABBIE HOFFMAN POST

You can count on AH for a nice skf board post today....so I will keep it here....
not sure when I've seen anything as toppy and wedgy as the bkx... or the SPX. Daneric's amazing charts show them very well.http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com...last week fas kept bouncing off a ceiling around 10, faz was finding support around 9ish (and falling)Many - perhaps more - days the past 2 weeks, FAS has fallen off at the open, then gradually cranked higher throughout the day. FAZ had an almost identical pattern near the bottom last Feb / Mar for about 2 weeks as well. Just saying...Baring the unforeseen, a pullback would seem imminent (course, we keep saying that)Last week they bought the banks the day(s) before the big banks announced earnings, then sold them off some when they announced. GS, JPM, and C all followed this pattern. C is also on a path of its own...and is almost running the opposite direction of the rest of the banks. JPM is finding heavy resistance at 34Perhaps surprisingly, JPM did not announce a stock sale. If this pattern continues, BAC should fall Monday after earnings are announced Monday AM.BK reports Tuesday - it may rally Monday - it is around 30, and it has shot as high as 32 last weekTuesday and Wednesday are also huge earnings days for the entire market.HBAN, KEY, RF also report before the bell Tuesday, but they have already rallied... alot (well done fly!)COF reports after the bell TuesdayMonday and/or Tuesday MS and WFC may rally, since they report before the bell Wednesday. WFC got the party started last Friday April 10 , and finally broke above 20 April 17Of course, the patterns may not continue... expect the unexpected.Round 1 of the stress test results to be released next Friday... since absolutely everyone KNOWS what the results will be (everyone passes), this could be quite a sell the news event. Unlike M2M and uptick where some thought that perhaps common sense may prevail, everyone knows the round 1 results already, and it would be hard to see the market pricing in any upside in advance. The market will already have plenty of other earnings to digest next week.anyone not reading zerohedge on a regular basis is missing out on some amazing (bearish) insight.http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/Gold is also falling, the miners are falling off a cliff. Any reversal in gold means the miners are a steal here.

GRAND SUPERCYCLE OUR FUTURE?

I certainly don't have that ability to tell you, but I think you need to study its predictive value and consider it. It certainly has the attention of a lot of central bankers and governments around the world....

A bear market of Grand Supercycle scale should be of sufficient magnitude to be accompanied by a severe economic recession. The last Grand Supercycle was terminated by the bursting of the South Sea Bubble and Mississippi Bubble in 1720. This was followed by a period of economic stagnation which lasted over 50 years, which is longer than the length of the Great Depression. If the Grand Supercycle theory is correct then the magnitude of the current recession should be of greater magnitude than the Great Depression, and possibly of greater magnitude than the severe economic recession from the 1720s–1770s that terminated the previous Grand Supercycle of the Renaissance.
It should be understood that this is meant in relative rather than absolute terms, so that rather than the standard of living dropping to the lows of the Great Depression what may occur is simply many decades of economic stagnation.
However if the termination of the current Grand Supercycle coincides with the termination of an Elliott Wave of greater degree, then the economic recession should be of a significantly greater magnitude than the previous Grand Supercycle collapse. This would be the case if the current Grand Supercycle is the 5th wave of the so called X-Wave or Millennium wave beginning in around 1000 A.D. with the end of the Dark ages. This wave configuration is accepted by some Elliott wave analysts[6] but rejected by others[2].
A controversial issue is whether the severe economic recession accompanying the termination of the current Grand Supercycle will take the form of either a deflationary depression or a hyperinflationary holocaust. Robert Prechter has repeatedly stated that the collapse will take the form of a deflationary depression probably followed by hyperinflation. As is made clear in the following quotes from October 2006:

A MUST READ IF YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW WE GOT HERE

This article represent one of the best summary and analysis I have seen to date..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=special_report&sid=a0jln3.CSS6c

Biggest U.S. Export
The bundling of consumer loans and home mortgages into packages of securities -- a process known as securitization -- was the biggest U.S. export business of the 21st century. More than $27 trillion of these securities have been sold since 2001, according to the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association, an industry trade group. That's almost twice last year's U.S. gross domestic product of $13.8 trillion.
The growth over the past decade was made possible by overseas banks, which saw the profits U.S. financial institutions were making and coveted the made-in-America technology, much as consumers around the world craved other emblems of American ingenuity from Coca-Cola to Hollywood movies. Wall Street obliged, with disastrous results: two-thirds of a trillion dollars in bank losses, about 40 percent of them outside the U.S.
``Securitization was based on the premise that a fool was born every minute,'' Joseph Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia University in New York, told a congressional committee on Oct. 21. ``Globalization meant that there was a global landscape on which they could search for those fools -- and they found them everywhere.''

Friday, April 17, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Well ....bulls reached their goal....870...now what....881..............should be a problem ..but possible........Market wants to rest .....baaaaaaaaaad...look for 840 today.........gl....its only a game...real problems is being 30 with a wife that looks like a million and works as a hygienist for a horny dentist....you have 2 rugrats and havent worked in 4 months with nothing in sight........This scenario wasn't present to this degree in previous severe unemployment downturns....it should be an issue....social fabric will be tested.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

NIGHTLY NEWS

Google will sell on the news tomorrow....so what.....who cares. The market has hit the upper trend. Still may have some punch. But time is running short for the bulls. MMs will only play the game so long...then hand the baton to the suckers. Here is an article that shouldn't shock you ...but it is the game..so I advise you to read it closely.......
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/opinion/15cohan.html?_r=1&ref=patrick.net

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Lookin for love (bulls) at 870......they wont make it........bears cryin for 830........all I will do is watch...holding 85% cash and will add srs at 870...will not exceed 80% cash....safety safety.........if they fake out and nosedive it will take some srs profit.........gl

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

JSR9900 POST.........

JSR is an skf poster and tells ya a lil story today...........

I find myself thinking about the following:*M. Whitney saying "I would not be short here"*Abby Joseph Cohen announcing that there "may still be trouble in the financials." She is always wrong.*C taking a bearish bias on the financials - Note how they are in the midst of a short squeeze for the preferred/common conversion. Another signal.*The gov daily pump running wide open, dispelling pulpit sermons to lure self-directed dumbkoff 401k investors to buy more mutual funds.*The yahoo shill machine running wide open.....seriously, SKF trades above VWAP for a day - no Pruski, no Dave (sorry Dave), tarp, Gringo Pobre/Mike Oxlong/Mike Oxschlortz/etc/etc. The propaganda machine has been shaking retails of their shares with the fear campaign almost daily and it is most definitely working. What can you do? The simple answer is: Nothing. Rather, most are probably better served to let them trade back and forth and kick each other's tails instead of hitting the "CHING-CHE CHING-CHE CHING-CHE" piggybanks that they gloat over soo much.Thats right, dont trade.....then what? Retail liquidity drys up, vol goes through the roof as they try to work their books going into op-ex, those whom are in the midst of a legitimate (professional level) short squeeze get crushed, and perhaps somewhere in the abyss, rather than dumping more of your piggybanks into the market, you get your 100SKF or 250SRS or ...whatever, you get my point.Dry up their access to the retail liquidity and they have to kill each other. It is that simple.

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Bulls have to break the bears early to regain mo mo..........unlikely....bulls want to retake 856............bears just wanna have fun...........828.......still holdin srs.tbt.and cash....90% cash......oooh baby......I sleep fine.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

NIGHTLY NEWS

INTC earnings did nothing to settle the bulls nerves. Government immediately counters with a breaking news announcement that they intend to release some of the banks stress test results early...thinly veiled attempt to the sudden negative market trend and INTC news. Obviously if they do this it will be seen for what it is.....in actuallity no one will really care but it could give the bulls their needed steroid injection to achieve 870 tomorrow...so just be aware. The stress tests from the beginning were intended to be a sham, so the market will ultimately discount their conclusion. Just as it saw right through GS's rigged numbers...Now my personal feelings.......as I have repeatedly said we are most likely headed into a true depression. One of my old childhood friends was put out of business today....all he ever wanted to do was sell cars..These sad stories are being felt all over in our nation, and will grow more difficult for us to just ignore as just a recession/correction. Stay safe and continue to make sure your priorities are put in their correct order. GL gang

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Nothing amazing today....bulls will look to take the tape to 870 and the bears will continue to wait for the MMs to trap the schmucks....with first stop at 845...........good luck

Monday, April 13, 2009

SUCKERS RALLY......

Look for sell the news tomorrow........after the "bank earnings bonanza" ....GS has realeased their earnings surprise early........heheh...don't know why...but they have a reason........and it is theirs to know......but you can assume there was insider trading today in advance...look at banks.

Wilsin ....WHY PUT YOUR DOUGH IN A BANK?

Excellent skf board poster...wilsin asks some common sense question:

Why bother keeping money in banks now? 15 minutes ago
Just something to consider but there appears to be decent-sized risk and little if any value proposition in keeping money in banks. First, one thing people usually get by keeping money in banks is a return on investment. Now, we are living in an environment in which you get nothing for savings deposits and only 2%+ for longer term Treasuries, so what's the use.Second, banks are more secure than say stuffing the money under your mattress. But if you can disperse your funds in a few, safe locations unknown to others and with small safes or vaults, you can secure lots of money at little cost.Third, right now it would be easier to get your money out of your own private caches than from a bank bc 1) they are not keeping the money on hand bc they do not have it, and 2) they are throwing up regulatory hurdles and beauracratic excuses to not giving YOU back YOUR money.Fourth, as to security, who knows which bank is going to blow up next. Is the security of having money in a bank worth the risk of your bank going under?Fifth, and aren't you also running the risk of FDIC running out of funds any day now? Sheila Bair herself admitted that FDIC will be functionally insolvent before the end of the year. But who knows when that tipping point will be reached.Sixth, the temporary increase in FDIC coverage from $100k to $250k runs out at the end of the year. So why get caught in the stampede out of banks when that expires?Seventh, when you take your money out of the banks, you decrease their ability to play the games that they are playing. Remember, they are leveraged at least 10 to 1 for every $1 deposited in the bank, so each dollar removed goes a long way towards preventing the banks, particularly the big ones, from using your own money against you. And if you read these boards and other blogs, you already know the games they are playing.Again, just some things to consider.

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Give back day....bears should take back 835............bulls have no chance today...

Saturday, April 11, 2009

ABBIE HOFFMAN POST

Love his tenacity and his take is spot on.............

Last year the bubble was oil. Oil was driven by speculators up to $150 a barrel before collapsing. Going short in oil before July was suicide, and going long after July was suicide. The Washington Post indicated that Vitol, a massive commodities trader, at one point held 11% of all oil futures contracts last July. Regulators, and I use the term loosely since they clearly regulate nothing, were stunned to learn what Vitol was really up to. “The CFTC, which learned about the nature of Vitol's activities only after making an unusual request for data from the firm, now reports that financial firms speculating for their clients or for themselves account for about 81 percent of the oil contracts on NYMEX, a far bigger share than had previously been stated by the agency.”I saw that one article… once… funny how nobody really talked about what really happened. Do you have any idea how many people literally starved to death last year so some traders could get rich on a commodities bubble?http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...But I digress..This year’s bubble is bank equities. It is nothing more than a bubble, just like the dot com bubble and the housing bubble and the oil bubble, and it will end much worse. The bubble has been inflated by endless fed pumping, printing, and spending - a trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you've destroyed the known world. This bubble will collapse... quickly... taking the entire equities market with it. Sometime this year, probably within a couple of months.The fundamentals of this economy are sh$t. There are ZERO indicators that things are getting better. Idiot pundits grasp at straws trying to convince us that we are at least getting near the bottom. We are nowhere near the bottom. How long had the govt been telling us that we are 6 months away from recovery? They will keep feeding us that crap for the next several years. The fed even admitted this week that we won’t recover in 2009, but no one paid any attention, they were all too busy buying bank stocks.U3 - the official unemployment figure will hit 10% this year - nearly everyone is conceding that already. U6 - the real figure - will hit 20%. The govt has UNDERREPORTED monthly unemployment figures by an AVERAGE of 121k per month since last august, only to adjust them up later, hoping no one will notice. They have ‘hidden’ close to a million jobs lost that way…http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c...http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c...The average home price in the US dropped double digits in Q4 of 2008 alone. Ponder that for a moment. Home prices have dropped plenty for the past couple of years, but at least another 10% haircut in just those 3 months is HUGE. Foreclosures are now around 40% of all home sales, and anyone trying to sell a house for a price above fire sale is wasting their time. Banks have declared foreclosure moratoriums – why? They are hoping people keep paying on distressed mortgages, but they almost don’t care. They simply don’t want to own any more real estate, since they have to show a loss when they take over the home. This is helping pad their books… alot. Now try to reconcile these facts with the fact that bankers refuse to mark mortgages to reality, and congress is embracing, even demanding this practice. Goldman shows that banks are still valuing loans at an average of over 90% Didn’t Enron teach us anything? Isn’t that why the fools in Congress passed Sarbanes Oxley, to prevent this kind of fraud? We arrest Madoff… the real crooks are running the show.http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/ri...http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/ri...

CAN WE SUCCEED

An excellent article that concludes our public and political will cannot respond.....

But for the moment, let me underscore: the average American knows little of the dimensions of the financial sector aggrandizement and misbehavior involved. Until this is remedied, there probably will not be enough informed, focused indignation to achieve far-reaching reform in the teeth of financial sector money and influence. Equivocation will triumph. This will not displease politicians and regulators leery of offending their contributors and backers

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/07/the_disaster_stage_of_us_financialization/

Friday, April 10, 2009

Thursday, April 9, 2009

WILLSIN'S TURN

I have to post this also off the skf board.....Wilsin is a great read here..........enjoy..

I could go on but I think that ultimately, the coordinated use of the pulpit was an effort to break the fingers of those whom would push the short button. They prefer that you buy and baghold long only. Many will not be pushing buttons ever again after today."Yes, JSR, the no bid market is almost here after today's action. They had nothing left in the arsenal after uptick rule change, so they went with fake numbers, lies and deceit. That's not a long-term formula for success. Reality will bite back and hard. Only question is when.As for WFC, the numbers make no sense. Are they using the new FASB numbers such that they made $3B EXCEPT FOR THE $4.9B they must writeoff? Right now that is a confused mess. But there is a tell in WFC's release today: their allowances for credit losses are $23 billion, which is MORE THAN 1/3 OF THEIR ENTIRE MARKET CAP even including today's surge.So, all I can say is, their lips were moving, so they were lying. You cannot need gov bailouts and be profitable on a record level at the same time. They, and this goes for all big banks, are either lying, stealing or both. If they are so profitable, pay back the gov. If they need the gov money, then they cannot be THIS profitable if at all.Here's another wrinkle, they generated all of these profits while borrowing from the Fed at 0% and paying the gov preferred divs at 5%. What?! How does that happen? Only if you are on the other side of the looking glass.At this point, my sole theory is that the government is a co-conspirator and accomplice in the greatest felony in history. I urge everyone to write their representatives, senators and White House and demand to know WTH is going on? And how can this be? DEMAND that they pay back the bailouts IMMEDIATELY if they are profitable on a record level. Then let's see what happens.

IMMRED SPOT ON

Why should I have to post......when I have access to superior cognitive insight.....besides tertiary syphilis is taking its toll..........Immred is an skf poster that has called our financial collapse to a tee...and was accurate in his call yesterday to NOT enter shorts here.....
Not a very good time to trade period unless you have the Goldman Sucks@$$ playbook next to your computer along with a direct line to the CEO, Federal Reserve Chairman, and Treasury Secretary. The market action for the past 2 months has been almost completely calm and coordinated as they paint the perfect V bottom or inverted HS on the technical charts. The danger for shorts is the next 810 retracement will be used as a springboard to break the inverted H&S neckline at 870. Normally a close below 795 would confirm a reversal. But things are not normal, news does not matter, and those being laid off will be further cut off from both the credit spigot. There will be great trading opportunities after this goes parabolic up or is allowed to form a double bottom or mini crash, right now staying out preserves trading capital and energy from these AH games being played. It's all about insider trading at the moment, technical knowledge and a little luck only gets you a pocket full of lint.Will not really look at what is being attempted until after I get my taxes done over the next week. Right now enjoying my quad cheeseburger on a tortilla. Cheers!

TAPE READ BY JSR9900

Love this guys read of the tape.....here is his skf board post....

My assessment is that this was an outright assault on financial short sellers. SPY traded 259M shares. BAC traded over $ 1TN. XLF exceeded SPY volume. A lot of folks got wiped out today including retail whom have been making money for once in their lives off of the inverse ETF shares. As of yesterday, we were standing on the edge of the financial abyss. As of today, 2 fed governors see recovery not too far off...except that growth wont recover until 2010. Right...Meanwhile, we have a WFC announcement of record-breaking earnings yet we do not have a full picture of how the numbers have been derived. Simultaneously, our beloved presidente-elect has hit the bully pulpit with the following bullish announcements:That:1.) Its a great time to refiand2.) That the govt needs a new fleet of vehicles and the big 3 can use the business. Errm,This coming on the back of AA earnings which is a proxy for finished goods. Sales down but "not as bad when you take away the one-timers"....yes, the one-timers....you know, only one time.I could go on but I think that ultimately, the coordinated use of the pulpit was an effort to break the fingers of those whom would push the short button. They prefer that you buy and baghold long only. Many will not be pushing buttons ever again after today

GOT MY WISH

I will stay small but will play some SRS this am....may get my head handed to me but in my view this is an opportunity to scalp...if not I can live with a small srs position ...I have less than 2% will increase to 5% when I add...probably at 845 but have to watch the tape........gl ........and be careful...........its your AXX the MMs want.......

TOMBSTONE IN THE DESERT

This giant project symbolizes the excesses of the greed and free credit that reigned terror on the world....anyone that has been to Vegas in the last year and looked at this garagantuan disaster had to wonder just how big the fall would be for Kerkorian and MGM.....well the day of reckoning is nearing.......
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idINN0641481820090409

THE DAILY NUMBERS

We are getting very close to a pig roast or maybe I should say BULL roast...My wish tomorrow is a push to 835....a gift.. this rally is long in the tooth...bulls may still get us to Danos 857 but it is weak and I think Dano called that off tonight...Pattern trader (see blog link below) is getting very bearish here...and I like his analysis also.....we could still be a day or two off...but like I said that close tonight shows no strength....I bought faz srs tbt today and will add tomorrow if it touches 835...but dont count on that happening......warning ..you may make money long tomorrow...but it is an increasingly risky trade.... I played spy today and made 25c....dont like it.. I own tbt here..I recommend not adding here if market tanks it should make a run to 43.......bears want to take out 804 tomorrow....baaaad....gl and be nimble....

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

NIGHT NEWS

Boring market here ...dont expect much tomorrow..should be more of the same...Dont trade this market right here ...MMs wiping out your stops..vix dropin...No one has any real day trading direction here...
Poor Warren looks like he is having some problems too....he may have to cut back on his daily McDonalds and coke.... http://www.cnbc.com/id/30114201 Warren has no choice in this market but to ride his investments to hell......gl gang

BULLS IN TROUBLE

Technically the market today was a net negative for the bulls...with 20 min. to go today it has been a disappointment for bulls...may go green to close...but it is forming an HnS on spy.......anyway closed longs today....tiny srs faz tbt...tiny

MORNING NEWS MUSE

Everything is sunny and clear. Rick Wagoner is fired at GM and we are back on GO . Maybe that lead should be followed where it really counts...at least thats is what the congressional panel thinks.....
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- A congressional panel overseeing the U.S. financial rescue suggested that getting rid of top executives and liquidating problem banks may be a better way to solve the economic crisis.
The Congressional Oversight Panel, in a report released yesterday, also said the Treasury may be relying on too rosy an economic scenario to guide its $700 billion bailout, and declared that the success of the program after six months is “mixed.” Three of the group’s members disagreed with at least some of the findings.
Of course I think it is patently unfair to remove these titans of wall street since that would be interfering with free enterprise and capitalism....after all ...they may go to another firm that is in desperate need of a severe axx fkn that will pay them more dinero.

THE DAILY NUMBERS

Nothing exciting about the news or futures here. Bears want to take out 810 today with power so 804 may come into play....If they struggle with either number I will try a little spy for some play. Careful today. Breaking news will be your enemy. Bulls may try hard reversal .....I am still small ball..bulls want that 857....if they dont make their move today its over.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

PAVLOV'S DOG

Sound familiar....it should....thats who we are in this little experiment.  Psychology whether individual or mass, as in this case, are what allow MMs to control the Market and thus make the moolah in the massive trading desks that comprise the MMs.  Investors are not moving this market on a daily basis...it is the real money that is in the hands of the MMs ...and they know there is NO future in buy and hold strategies.  Therefore we as investors , traders, gamblers, sycophants, etc... must try and anticipate market directions..Long term this market is a disaster.  Intermediate term the next few months we will grind up on hope and manipulation.  The problem for us as traders unfortunately is the short term and I just have a very difficult time determining this. BUT consider this , if you believe that the market at this stage is controlled by these trading desk (and I do)....then view this as a Pavlovnian experiment. Maybe it will give you an advantage.  MMs  gave us numerous trading days where they have repeated the same conditioned stimuli....taking the market down daily only to stage late day rallies.  Keeping the bulls playing the game and removing the shares from the weak handed shorts.  I wondered how long they would continue this and made note of it in my last several posts...well..today we found the answer...

REIT HEADLINES WILL DETERIORATE

Obvious does not make you money in the short term! These macro economic headlines mean nothing to the daily market swings. However long term investors need to be aware of how dangerous our economic decline potential is. I will continue to attempt to trade SRS here...but small ball only.... I closed all of my position out at close ...so you know it is gonna zoooooom...

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Manhattan office rents fell the most in at least 25 years in the first quarter as financial companies slashed jobs and relinquished space in the U.S. recession.
Rents dropped 6 percent from the fourth quarter to $65.01 a square foot, commercial property broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. said in a report today. The decline is the most in records dating back to 1984, Cushman said, and shows how much the fallout from the September bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. hurt the New York property market.
“It’s gone beyond the financial firms,” Joseph Harbert, Cushman & Wakefield’s chief operating officer for the New York region, said in a telephone interview. “It’s broad across a lot of industries. Everybody has the same way of thinking, which is low confidence in job growth, consolidation, cutting expenses, not hiring unless you really have to.”

MMs STILL IN CONTROL OF THE TAPE

BUT...as opposed to yesterday's tape which saw a nice reversal ..will they use the last few day's of reversals to lure the bulls into a trap....I am not able to predict their moves but would want any bull positions to be careful here....Most wavers and T/A is still leaning towards 857 to 870 area and are probably right...not enough meat on that bone for me to chase here. Always take precautions if you are long here with tight stops. I have traded SRS tiny that I bot last nite...and have remained very small in the SRS position. Added tiny TBT and tiny ES ...I don't like pumping individual stocks ....but after this market correction ES is a descent gamble....but dont cry to me if you lose your axx....gl gang

FUTURES BLOOD RED

Market makers gotcha bulls . This was my concern trying to play long in an overextended rally. Doesn't mean go iin short ....but my little SRS feels better. I will continue to keep tiny TBT that I bought yesterday....I should correct if fear ramps up and I will buy more.....bloomberg is jumpin on the bulls this morning with the news...
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures dropped as George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager, said the monthlong rally in equities won’t last and investors speculated Alcoa Inc. will kick off the first-quarter earnings season with a loss.
Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. slid 4.4 percent, while Alcoa slumped 1.9 percent. Applied Materials Inc. retreated 2.2 percent after a contract for solar equipment was slashed by $1.65 billion.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in June fell 1.5 percent to 818.40 at 7:31 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 102 points, or 1.3 percent, to 7,814. Both measures have surged more than 21 percent since sinking to the lowest levels in a dozen years on March 9.
“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” Soros said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, referring to the rebound in stock prices since March 9. “This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.”
European and Asian shares also declined today. Alcoa, scheduled to release its quarterly report after U.S. markets close, will be the first Dow average company to post results for the January-to-March period.

Monday, April 6, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS

OK ...this looks like a no -brainer.....Yank or Tank...lotta bulls about to get slaughtered...but this bear is still afraid. My 826 low number yesterday did provide a nice bounce for the longs....but I didn't play it.   Unless you count the little ES scalp I picked up (thnx palmerjoe).  I'm going out on a limb here (cough cough bullchit)  MMs open early red go for 820...then turn and head straight for 850.....should be a battle...lil ol me is layin low...still have small SRS....and will make trades accordingly...Its a game ....a very dangerous game here ...MMs need to take this market down here so watch out below.........

LATE NIGHT READS FROM PALMERJOE

Palmerjoe has provided what I think are two appropriate links for your perusing. I think you will find thought provoking proposals that may help you weather the coming storm.... http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1239023340.php

http://us.mc01g.mail.yahoo.com/mc/welcome?.gx=1&.rand=9l3l1lv5qg08n&noFlush&mcrumb=WeylGemEdW2#_pg=showMessage&pSize=25&sMid=0&fid=Inbox&sort=date&order=down&startMid=0&filterBy=&.rand=1141603458&midIndex=0&mid=1_8006_AL0MDUwAAExsSdqbxQCt7QU9F%2FU&f=1&m=1_8006_AL0MDUwAAExsSdqbxQCt7QU9F%2FU,1_7253_AJkMDUwAAHCaSdqVVgI7%2FlIvUzI,1_6724_AKsMDUwAAQn4SdqS5QhrOwXKwvk,1_6158_AM8MDUwAAIfBSdpxnwNtfwDRk7g,1_159_AKsMDUwAALslSdmAcQz9uWGSUH0,1_729_AJkMDUwAARxTSdjYdwqr5Ac2d6A,&hash=e9f4fce13a95b7bdc2deda886079a6aa&.jsrand=6

DON"T GET SUCKED IN

NO ONE and I mean no one can tell you where this market is headed here. Long term its DOWN...Medium term perhaps months it is UP. If you adhere to Elliott wave and can do anykind of fundamental analyisis this economy is done for. Now having stated the obvious , just refer to the 1929 charts and analysis.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
Do not ignore the waves ..this is P2....and if I am correct it will be long and strong. I traded long off of 667 and closed my longs last week ....we are long in the tooth but can run awhile longer. The best EWs out there Dano , Kenny others will tell you this is a difficult count here...So I repeat don' t trade here short or long at least for tomorrow...I will give you more info if it becomes available....We tested my 826 today but bulls pulled it out....that may indicate they are headed to their 860-870 level....on the other hand ..they have complete control and may yank some money out of the longs tomorrow with another retest early of 826....gl keep your head down low here....I still have small SRS...and tiny TBT I bot today

MMs CONTROLLED TAPE

Nice retrace for the bulls here but MMs need to take some bullishness out and beware if you are long here. Very tricky area here. May just sucker back some bulls in and then continue the dump. I scalped some srs earlier that I bot on Friday AH made 50cents. Still hold some.. but my poition is small ..Scalped some of Palmerjoes ES this am...tidy.....and bot tiny TBT....again....AGAIN careful shorting this market....We are in P2 this is long and hard to short.

PAUL HARVEY TYPE STORY

I used to pick strawberries with my grandfather in the early 60s.....He was a man of few words but very bright...he played the stock market heavy back then and tried to teach me economics....ANYWAY..one day we are in the hot sun picking strawberries and he related a story in the early 30s when he owned a grocery in Thebes Illlinois....a woman lived in a tent on the edge of town and raised 3 boys......they had a baby grand piano in the middle of the tent they used as a table and played...he noticed that she was shop lifting food in his store ...but never intervened....and my gandfather was a hardass republican...over the years each boy graduated and was sent off down the dusty road with a box of cornflakes only....can you imagine...no flat screen tv for their dorms....as the years went by each boy achieved advanced degrees from various midwestern universities....one in fact became a federal judge and was even on the Nixon short list for a supreme court appointment......he later was the Dean of the Washington University Law School with their new building named for him. One boy became a professor at Purdue....the other an engineer....My grandfather a stoich hardass...completed his story by saying that eventually ...20years later he received a letter...from the woman...admitting her theft and giving him a check for something like...$64.21 ....acts of kindess like that helped this country to survive. Hiram Lazaar....was the judges name spelling may be wrong ....sorry..

Sunday, April 5, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS

I luv this game...OK I am gonna take a little different slant...I have respect for most of the calls giving 860 the hit tomorrow or the next day.....but watch 845...it will make a nice trade there with some tight stops if ya wanna throw in some shorts tomorrow...everyone assumes we take out 857 soon and max 860 to 870.....we probably do..but I will be watching the number 845 tomorrow....stochs maxin ..rsi gettin there...resistances gettin heavy...I just cant see the risk/reward playing for long positions here...short term shorts are about to ring the bell...stay small....look for upside move in market early and watch 845...I think its a key.... if a  good volume take out and vix holds we max at 860 or so......well guess what ....no bottom number...why .....cause it is way down there.....at least 826 for bounce damn I did give one.....and if you risk anything beyond small here....then you are dumber than I buying SRS AH.....gl 

THE INSIDE OUT WHAT WE DO KNOW ON CRE

Some of the best posters on the SKF board are as troubled as I, as to the nature of the deterioration on SRS so a couple of nice links were provided this weekend..these measures are desperate and reveal how bad the credit crisis really is...but WTF it patently dishonest...and ultimately will destroy itself...and the entire market... http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=58157&tid=388444&mid=388444&tof=39&frt=1#388444

FEAR MONGERING OR JUST THE FACTS MAM

Recent events raised the spector that my comments on the recent mass killings were somehow a promotion of my bearish stock position by my protaganist Liveup on the SKF board. Not true...and I apologize if that is the way it appeared...We are entering troubled times..I have a unique job that provides me a daily opportunity to look inside the pulse of society at its most private and troubled level. My commentary on the shootings initially were knee jerk and assummed that they would be related to the stress of a collapsing economy...I did not think that was far fetched nor innappropriate. It appears that indeed this is the major trigger for all three mass killings.....all reported that the individuals had lost jobs and were despondent...One of the reasons I make these observations is a belief that logically this trend will accelerrate as times become worse.. Hopefully Obama and P2 bring us a reprieve with hope and some stability..I believe that in spite of this we will enter P3 and whatever is happening negatively to society over the following few months will deteriorate next year.. Again no crystal ball just logical simple deductive reasoning. Take precautions ..and hope for the best. GL gang.....

Saturday, April 4, 2009

PRIMARY 2 ITS A BEAR

Rephrasing the headline should read its a bear for me. As many of us on skf have stated P2 is in play and will be so for months to come....I am not the Oracle of Delphi...and am totally sarcastic when I discuss crystal balls.....I have none.....merely the assimilation of a multitude of readily available factual data give me no othere recourse but to conclude that EWs continued progression into P3 will transpire. For those of you that have to make short term trading decisions on this ..it is simple...maintain a long bias until spx950.....or go to cash and occaisionally scalp small shorts. As you can see short etfs in this current wave can be butchered. There is another tape to watch and I pay close attention...and that is the reality news tape. It is deteriorating.. I hope this will at least ammeliorate with Primary 2 but I am not sanguine in that regard. You have to save some cash now and prepare in case my and others predictions are correct...( i hope i am fos)....some gold coins now are critical. I am in the process of looking to purchase small fertile farmland as a safe investment to protect me from a potentially hyperinflationary currency debasement. Look at tangible assets that have valuable.Gl doom and gloomers

Friday, April 3, 2009

TAPE READ ON FRIDAY from JSR9900

I read it right up the wazoo kli. Volume was nil, nothing was moving. XLF and a portion of the fin shares were printing down. unemployment news came out, service sector news hit, and where you expected a short, the fins started to move. I was watching FAS having scalped a 6.40 entry against a 6.55 exit. The BAC dividend announcement hit and the rocket took off to the moon with very few willing to sell it. At the time, FAS was trading 160MM shares - more than BAC. Sort of a WTF? FAZ was trading 17.40 - 17.50.Then all hell broke loose. FAS went for a new hod a couple of times and looked like it was going to double top for the day. There was a regression. PRU started climbing out a hole. JPM picked up a bid.XLF went from down 0.06 to up 0.25 and then some. Fins ran green into the close. FAZ got hammered. XLF puts got hammered. During the final hour of the tape, FAZ, having been sold for a few bars on the 5-min, decided to grow a pair of legs and put up a new HOD on several bars. Frankly, I was caught like a deer in the headlights. I was wondering if the new short rules caused covering of shorts against long index shares and fin shares direct. I also pondered the idea that the liquidation or partial redemption of a net short fund(s) could cause a rally. I also pondered the notion of the fin sector being pumped up before an equity dump - which will be necessary for a cash offset to writedowns and TARP paybacks. From my vantage point, I'm still sitting here dazed and confused trying to figure it out.

THOUGHTS GOING INTO WEEKEND

Complete and utter slaughter for shorts....to my chagrin but not complete surprise my SRS position albeit tiny was DESTROYED...so like a retail idiot...I added small ammount AH. DO NOT follow my lead unless you have tiny or none now. Do not chase this ....but I put that out there because I did it. As I stated in my previous post you had to be small today or they kill you.... WELL......they annihilated SRS. Anyway even the small ammount of SRS I had left after my scalps this morning makes me feel ILL......Did anyone notice the 10year treasury today...That was your tip they were going to put money into equities......what did I do..sold my TBT way too early.....gl gang

MARKET MAKERS RINGIN THE REGISTER TODAY

This is a controlled tape....you can only watch it with small positions as the big boys bounce it to their will and collect their stops... afternoon profit taking to continue most likely but that wont guarantee a red close...play it small...gl

THE DAILY NUMBERS

My crystal ball is medium clear...profit taking should be in the cards for tomorrow and a push for the bears to break 812 should occur early in the morning...dont count on a gap down with the jobs numbers but it would make sense. However they have used these worse than expected numbers lately to rally the markets.......soooooo...if the numbers are WORSE than expectations dont be surprised to see an early morning push by the bulls to 845 area only to fade as profit taking kicks in early....but that has been a pattern on these numbers lately...thats how the MMs slap you around.....I just really dont expect the slow bleed straight to 812 without some nice head fakes. Now for newbies that think this is gospel ...you are craaaazy....playing heavy here will take your head off....They will try to take your stops out tomorrow..which is why my SRS short position is only 6% of my portfolio and TBT is 12%...I am heavy cash ..this is P2 and its a wedge killin mofo....and I am only playing small and scalpin. Remember bulls want 845 bad.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

PALMERJOE TAKE A LOOKSEE........

I like this sector too Palmer it makes perfect sense.....enter at your own peril gang and do your own due diligence....but I love the idea...

EnergySolutions, Inc. provides technology-based nuclear services to government and commercial customers in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Federal Services; Commercial Services; Logistics, Processing, and Disposal (LP&D); and International. The Federal Services segment engages in the management and operation or clean-up of Department of Energy facilities that are contaminated by radioactive materials. It offers on-site characterization, sorting, segregation, and transportation, as well as management and disposal of classified and unclassified solid and liquid LLRW, MLLW, and other special wastes. This segment also performs decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition of facilities, including disposal of radioactive materials. The Commercial Services segment offers a range of on-site services, including project planning, site surveys, radioactive material characterization and management, liquid waste processing, spent nuclear fuel, emergency response, and other nuclear services to commercial customers, including commercial power and utility companies that operate nuclear power plants, pharmaceutical companies, research laboratories, universities, industrial facilities, and other entities that generate radioactive materials or are involved in the nuclear services industry. The LP&D segment provides a range of logistics, processing, and disposal services, as well as owns and operates strategic facilities for the processing and disposal of radioactive materials. The International segment engages in the operation, defueling, and decommissioning of 10 nuclear power sites, as well as provides services for the disposal of radioactive materials from non-nuclear power generating facilities, such as hospitals, research facilities, and other manufacturing and industrial facilities in Europe and Asia. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Salt Lake City, Utah.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=es

NUCLEAR ATTACK

I feel like a marine on hamburger hill after the 5th wave of attackers had been thwarted...I have taken heavy casualties but still standing and beat back hopefully the final assault... I am exhausted.
Bulls win today ...NO DOUBT....They closed my 832 number without even breathing hard.....The close was not exactly strong for them but they held the 832 resistance and will try and ride RIMM earnings for tomorrow.......lot of profit taking into that close.....hope they push 850 in AM so I can fade it..but have to do my sneaking around tonite to make up my mind how to play it...Look at TBT.....keep your eye on it.

THE DAILY NUMBERS

My crystal ball is a little clearer today...bulls did go for my 812 yesterday...baastids. With all the morning pumping overseas and on our futures you gotta believe that they will close the 832 gap today. Be aware though they are tricky little devils and that may be their sucker play. As Dano says they might take you to 827 and suck you to hell. I am not playing long today. Bears still would like to see this taken to 768.....looks like they may have to wait..gl

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

PALMERJOE GIVES YOU THE FACTS

FED is printing money like there is no tomorrow and chinese and rest of the world are uneasy about our currency. Excessive dependence and reliance on one currency the US dollar, (which is not backed by gold and is being debased as never before), is not prudent in a globalised world with emerging economic powers. Should the dollar resume its bear market in the coming months, which seems likely, energy and food prices will surge in value again and the world will feel the effects of it.
My assessment is we will continue with ASSET Deflation + Hyper-Inflation for essential goods including food until 2012 and from 2012 to 2014 then we switch to real deflationary depression. This yr is the yr of so-called re-inflationary period since FED is throwing the kitchen sink at the problem. Market's overall trend is probably up till summer and then real downturn starts again. hyper-inflation seems entirely possible, even if mere inflation does not.. Hyperinflation will arrive when The Government decides that fiscal stimulus alone cannot ever get us out of debt, given the vast sums of debt that need to be inflated away. No, only a hyperinflation could do the job, albeit at a price that presently seems much too high. Creditors and savers would be wiped out, life insurance policies would become worthless, pension funds would be devastated, and all of the institutional conduits of lending, including the bond markets, would cease to function for a generation.

If Gold prices remain between 850 & 950 in the short term, that should give clear signal that market is thinking currency troubles and inflationary pressure ahead. The current charts still shows strong support for Gold at 880.

MUST READ ARTICLE

Rdsi from skf posted this and it is a homerun...simple direct and raises the questions you as an investor will have to make a decision on....the questions raised are the essence of this market. I feel that quantitative easing is a disaster for our future and the dollar will be destroyed as the world's reserve currency.....but we are in P2 so it will have an effect this year...anyway read and enjoy...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090401.wxrsprott01art1931/BNStory/SpecialEvents2/

ZIG AND ZAG

My man dano as kenny and others have described view our current trading as this pattern in a corrective pattern of P2.....these are hard to trade so as I have recommended stay small. Greed is not good here. Well looks like the bulls wanted that 812 bad today...so bad they expended a ton of money but still couldn't hold it....so I don"t think more than 820 tomorrow...but with fasb coming who knows. I made NO trades other than adding a little srs....my position is relatively small there and I have tbt.
I like srs action today in an up market...but that proves nothing for tomorrow...so I will check out the wind and paste my thoughts later...gl gang

CHARTS RIFE WITH BEARISH FORMATIONS

A double top was just placed on the spy ....plus a HnS on the spy 10 day is tryin to dump a R shoulder.....intersestingly on the 5 day 1min an inverse HnS is trying to set up. P2 makes me think that it is likely that the HnS fails to break the neck line and trap some bulls...so be careful ...but i like shorts right here.and added srs....gl

THIS MORNINGS TRADIING

We are in the midst of an historical financial catastrophe....but it really doesn't feel too bad at all. So how can that be? In the world that we have grown accustomed to changes occuring in seeming nanoseconds and the unfolding of this economic meltdown is molasses...at least its effects on mainstreet have been on a relative scale...These changes will continue and accelerate later this year.
However the Market is not the street and HAS been slaughtered. We are due for P2 here and I intend to play it ,but not heavily with the leveraged etfs long...except in quick scalps. I am very conservative in our current environment and am playing spy right now for my long etf on swings.
If we can move this P2 corrective wave down to 760 I want to start adding spy heavy. This corrective could easily go to 720...but I wont wait to begin adding...Preserving and growing.