Sunday, May 31, 2009

OPEN MESSAGE TO THE PRESIDENT

As an active small investor in the stock market I was surprised when you issued a public invitation to invest in the stock market in March stating that it was a good time to buy stocks......Having invested in the stock market for over 28 years I had never remembered a President making such an irregular recommendation in a stock market. After observing the market movements over the past 4 weeks it has become increasingly more suspicious that a direct order from the highest office with the backing of the United States Treasury and the Federal reserve along with major Investment Banks and the Presidents Working Group have conspired to manipulate the markets. I recognize the importance of our country having confidence in a good rising stock market..but this will create an eventual backlash and unleash the LAW of UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES....this will crush liquidity in this market. I also recognize that the real players behind this understand this (ie goldman sachs) and will profit mightilly. They surely believe they have a chance to manipulate the volatility to bring all players back into the market including the short players. I pose the question ....What if the converse occurs..and you permanently destroy your investor liquidity......and I believe that at this juncture that may have already occurred.....so .....realizing the importance of our markets success these actions may have actually created its ultimate dramatic collapse....It is apparent to this investor that this market is corrupt and the financial system it represents. Fortunately I can adjust, but many will elect to not play the game. That will result in the end game of any PONZI SCHEME...gl sir ..I hope our country survives this and I hope the promised transparency and punishment of the large bank people that put us here in this dillemna does transpire......but....

BREVITY

Bearabull poster from skf.......cogent..brief...true........

Daneric has lost his mind or this is the stupidists thread ever, take your pick."Daneric's Great Bear was the first inkling I had that anyone else saw what I saw using simple logic: Fiscal and monetary policy is broken, Bronze. And, the parabolic chart in Daneric's post was creating by those now broken policies.Deflation is the natural price action of capitalism - continually lowering the costs of production and the prices of goods. It has been that way for centuries now and is accelerating in the digital age. The inflationary spiral we have witnessed the past six decades is an anomaly borne of policy decisions made in Washington to siphon off a portion of this productivity. However, that policy wavered in 2000 to 2003 and finally collapsed in this phase of the crisis.We are entering a permanent deflationary regime from here going forward. That means the prices of everything will be falling - wages, consumer products, assets. Initially, it will be fast and furious.Why?Unfortunately - and I believe it is unfortunate, since I do not relish this catastrophe - a lot of bets have been made by governments, businesses, and individuals that prices would rise not fall. Unwinding those bets is going to be ugly

Saturday, May 30, 2009

MARKET REFLECTION

If you consider yourself an "advanced trader" stop reading immediately and go back to the SKF board. I take for granted that the reader of this blog understands the nuances of my trading references so I thought of trying to go over some weekend "where we are". This is a long wave in the market that will top out at an SnP of roughly 1100...... It could last well into January. This is all about HOPE and MANIPULATION......"they" are trying to save the system. It will fail. .... but in the meantime we will encounter inflation even though the economy will continue to fail...ie stagflation....I have tried to catch a pullback with an SRS and FAZ trade and been slaughtered in the last 4 weeks.....to counter this I have taken positions in GLD and FXC and UNG...long term Primary 2 will deliver returns in these.....bigtime.....in the meantime I will continue to trade these positions...and add......over time...gl and hope I am wrong.......for if P3 and P5 hit gold is the only thing to own

WEEKEND NEWS

There is no news. yayayaya. Will have summary post later today for entertainment rant.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for FRIDAY

SMACKDOWN.....the bulls are making a run for breakout tomorrow......bust 914 then upward and onward to the 921 and home free........watta scam......bears want to pullback and attack 878...gl gang this triangle is killin my shorts.......but then that is the plan.....

THE DOLLAR AND VELOCITY

Good explanation of where we are and where we are heading from Palmerjoe..

velocity has become the key driver in the entire world-wide economic crisis, so here is a quick explanation of it. Money responds to the law of supply and demand just as everything else does. If people do not want a particular currency — let's say the British pound — then the value of a pound will fall. Sellers will demand more pounds in trade for their goods or services, and prices in Britain will rise, even if there has been no change in the supply of pounds. On the other hand, if the demand for pounds rises, the value will rise and prices will fall even if there has been no change in the supply of the currency. Velocity is the speed at which money changes hands. When demand for the money is high, money changes hands more slowly, and velocity is low. When demand for the money is low, velocity is high. A key point is that velocity and money supply can act as substitutes for each other. A 10% rise in velocity has the same effect as a 10% rise in money supply. The biggest problem with velocity and money demand is they can turn 180 degrees overnight. If people trust the currency, and suddenly perceive some kind of big threat to their futures, money demand can shoot up. That's exactly what happened last year. The supply of dollars certainly did not go down, but when the real estate crash happened, people became so frightened they were afraid to let go of their dollars. Within a few days, money demand shot up, people stopped spending and held onto their dollars, and this had the same effect as an instantaneous deflation of the money supply. If you don't spend your money, that's the same thing as taking it out of circulation. This can instantly cause the equivalent of a sharp deflation of the money supply by 10 or 20 percent, or more. Also there is a huge difference between Demand pull inflation and stagflation. Stagflation ( stagnation of economic growth + inflation in essentil cost of good & services) which is a direct impact of currency devaluaion. So distinguish between inflation & stagflation and also distinguish between ASSET deflation which is credit contraction vs REAL deflation ( contraction of money supply + drastic reduction in essential cost of goods & services including food, taxes, insurance,,etc).

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for THURSDAY

I HATE triangles...have I told ya that lately??? This descending triangle is a grinder and is costing me time and money.....anyway the bulls need to rip out 914 and head to 200dma.......they CAN do it.....but the bears have the edge and will try to rip the guts outta 879.........have fun......gl ya know where I stand..

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for WEDNESDAY

OMG.....they ran through the 900.....maintains the channel ...or narrows the triangle ...you pick I won't.....be aware.........they DON'T HAVE to pull back........If they stay in the channel we should still see 840..........Immred has his doubts ....and you better too..........we are in Primary 2...its a monster.........anyway.....I give you my positions faz 5%...SRS.20% barf on both....building heavy in gld gdx ung fxc ......still have 40% cash....will be looking to add tbt ..........watta mess....gl traders........I HATE these triangles.........will be adding to all above positions cept faz and srs......

MAKES SENSE

Immred post today on skf that states his opinion on the trade......

The daily S&P RSI does have to reload sometime around 25 in order to get another 2-3 month meth binge run above 50. Once RSI 50 breaks, the correction may not last more than 3-5 days total before you get a V reversal / short squeeze that miraculously floats to 1100, dependent on the USD index keeping its head above water at 70. Like I mentioned before the break may not be more than 5% after a 874.9999 daily close, and if you blink you might miss it. It seems denial is the name of the game for the summer until the US dollar starts to break down either by accident earlier or intentionally later this fall. By then anybody still solvent will not go through the headache of the new short rules or changing of the market rules to continue playing in the US equity and bond markets. Good fake news gets pumped, while bad news get pimped even harder as a short squeeze opportunity. The next opportunity down to RSI of 20-25 is an opportunity for bears take chips off the table and go enjoy the rest of the summer enjoying that picnic basket or a siesta. Any bears still wanting to play should consider gold and oil on the pullback, foreign non US, for the truly masochistic can play natural gas, aka the widowmaker. Oddly when things start getting weirder this fall, logic and reason will return a little too late for all.

Monday, May 25, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for TUESDAY

Should be a nice bear day tuesday with the bull trying to retake 900 ..hehe..won't happen.......look for bears to go for 870 and complete the abc corrective here......as it makes it slog to 840.........isn't goin straight there....but should make it in the next few days..........

THE DAY OF RECKONING NEARS

As our Central Bankers march us towards financial armaggedon the hour glass is nearing empty........the highwire monetary easing act will come to an end that will be as abrupt as highwire disasters tend to be.....ie. gravity will win...

http://www.bearmarketinvestments.com/central-banks%e2%80%99-new-money-is-piling-up

BILDERBERG PLANNING YOUR FUTURE

From ballsyone on skf.......your future is being determined by these scum.....enjoy..........

Thursday, 21 May 2009 Part 1:A new Kremlin report on the shadowy Bilderberg Group, who this past week held their annual meeting in Greece, states that the West's financial, political and corporate elite emerged from their conclave after coming to an agreement that in order to continue their drive towards a New World Order dominated by the Western Powers, the US Dollar has to be "totally" destroyed.Even worse, a new US report on these secret Bilderberg meetings states: "Investigative journalist Daniel Estulin, whose information from inside Bilderberg has routinely proven accurate, states that the global elite's plan to completely destroy the economy and ultimately lower global population by two thirds has stoked fears even within Bilderberg itself that the fallout from such chaos could ultimately result in the globalists losing their control over the world."Prior to the Bilderberg Meeting, the Kremlin report continues, most of the West's wealthiest elite convened at an unprecedented secret meeting in New York called for and led by the staunch New World Orderlist David Rockefeller to plot the demise of the US Dollar and which, strangely, was reported in the US mainstream propaganda media, but to which the dissident American website PrisonPlanet.Com questioned by stating:"ABC News today devoted a prominently featured three page story to a "secret meeting" of rich philanthropists which took place earlier this month in New York, and yet one of the biggest news corporations in America was completely silent during a far more important meeting of around 150 of the world's powerbrokers at the Bilderberg conference last week."To the 'ultimate' outcome of the plans of the West's elite classes, connived under the auspicious of the Nazi backed Bilderberg Group, Russian Intelligence Analysts predict that their fears of "losing control" due to the catastrophic chaos they are embroiling our World in are, indeed, valid, especially since the unleashing upon our Earth's population the bioengineered H1N1 Swine Flu variant that is continuing its unrelenting march of death and illness across our entire Earth, and when coupled with the total collapse of the Global economic system can only lead to Total War.Russian President Medvedev has joined calls by China, Brazil, and other Nations, to prepare for the collapse of the US Dollar and has put forth the Russian Ruble as one of a number of International Reserve Currencies to replace the soon to collapse American currency, and as warned about by the St. Petersburg Times News Service:"Last week, despite the apparent appeal of the dollar in the midst of this global crisis, the U.S. bond market - often a harbinger of future trends - suddenly panicked, and the prices of U.S. Treasury bonds plummeted with 10-year yields jumping to over 3.3 percent. This could be ominous for the future of the dollar."Even worse for these American people is how horrific their immediate economic future is going to be, and as best articulated by Gary Dorsch, the editor of Global Money Trends, who writes: "No one is asking who will purchase the $1-trillion of US Treasuries to be offered to the market by September. Once that colossal amount of paper is bought, who will purchase another $5-trillion of Treasury paper over the next four-years, as the US-government plunges deeper into insolvency. The Federal Reserve would be forced to print (monetize) vast quantities of US-dollars to pay the principal and interest on the national debt that is not covered by tax revenue."

Sunday, May 24, 2009

ABBIE SAY'S

Twisted Abbies arm for a rant ...like me his vix is down so this is the best he gave up......good enuff...
market has a serious case of indigestion from all those new lovely bank shares they've just printed. whether more ma and pa 401ks will be drawn to the flames remains to be seen. funny how they're so eager to buy at or near the top when they were also so eager to sell at the bottom. funniest thing i've seen in weeks is MS's new bank shares targetszh: chasing the marginal buyer http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/chasing-diminishing-marginal-buyer.htmlhttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/Sha2oswNL4I/AAAAAAAACwM/FqfZtHsdRsI/s1600-h/MS+bank+upgrade+1.jpgBAC target of 32, jpm of 60, wfc 44, fitb 14....WTF do those morons smoke? they all put the decimal points in the wrong places...another massive set of lawsuits waiting to happen....timmy's already busy blaming europe for slowing down our non-existant recovery. perhaps they'll all get lucky and the market will continue to defy gravity for a few more weeks before some cold hard reality starts to smack like a lead pipe upside the left temple.erik pointed out how nicely the vix bottomed...http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/05/falling-knives-vix-and-usd.html

Saturday, May 23, 2009

MACKE MAY BE NEXT

The BEAR of all bears will be after us all.......Whether his calls were great or not so what....hehhehehe....he knew the Banksters were cheating us all...and he will be gone....Radigan ...now Macke...hehehe ..I luv it...a game just a game...

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2009/20090522145011.aspx

JUST THE FACTS MAM

Immred gives you the scoop............

Like all of our recent Presidents, Obama is a sock puppet, the most articulate in recent history. His handlers, bankers and the leaders of the wealthiest and most powerful families in the West, are making the decisions the keeps their control of power and wealth, plus safety. This is not a simple chess game where you decide to turn all your pawns into queens and dominate the board; it's more like the game of GO with more than 2 colors.The other players have realized the handlers are trying to turn as fast and as much as possible of their imaginary wealth, (leveraged debt, freshly printed secondary offerings, worthless primary offerings, worthless future GDP based currency namely the US dollar, commercial real estate and residential real estate at 10 feet above sea level or lower), into real wealth like hard commodities and the associated mining and land rights in multiple countries, the same with fertile agricultural land above sea level at least 30 feet, safe refuge properties, oil and natural gas producing properties and storage, water rights, and the necessary military hardware and manpower to protect them.The other players have seemed to catch on to what the handlers are up to and it is a race to get as much debt converted into dollars and then converted into hard critical assets before the other guy. Back to your question what will the OB administration do, as much damage control and spin as possible to maintain the social order while the race for the transfer of imaginary wealth into real wealth continues. Yes there are lots of really cool fiscal job programs being planned by the administration starting this summer like universal health care, updating the energy infrastructure, broadband to rural areas, digitizing health care databases, BUT all that is airy fairy if the dollar gets repudiated because the US is monetizing its debt while the wealthiest and most powerful are converting their holdings into the hard assets mentioned above along with a bug out plan when the social order breaks down due to the collapse of the dollar and employment in the US.This is why I am still hoping this is just a corrective P2 retrace and not the stairstep to he LL of P3 which would look like what GM did today or what the DOW did after the first big bear market rally in the early 30s. Also I am a little selfish and want to enjoy one more peaceful summer in ignorant bliss with friends and family before the world blows up.

Friday, May 22, 2009

WEEKEND NEWS

Going forward, it seems probable that many U.S. households will reduce their debt. If accomplished through increased saving, the deleveraging process could result in a substantial and prolonged slowdown in consumer spending relative to pre-recession growth rates. Alternatively, if accomplished through some form of default on existing debt, such as real estate short sales, foreclosures, or bankruptcy, deleveraging could involve significant costs for consumers, including tax liabilities on forgiven debt, legal fees, and lower credit scores. Moreover, this form of deleveraging would simply shift the problem onto banks that hold these loans as assets on their balance sheets. Either way, the process of household deleveraging will not be painless.
The last paragraph is probably the most lucid explanation of the conundrum the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are in currently. And all that Bernanke and Geithner are attempting to do is not just make sure these very banks can survive another day with trillions of worthless loans on their books, but do all they can to relend them once again into private (consumer and hedge fund) hands.This approach is flawed and as time passes and the consumer savings rate increases, the bifurcation between the Fed's plans and reality will only become more evident, with the cost being increasing deflation, while the U.S. accumulates higher and higher sovereign debt. The combined impact of both processes could end up having a devastating geopolitical impact on the United States. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/

Thursday, May 21, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for FRIDAY

Bulls want back on the road to 200dma......but will be lucky to cross 900 tomorrow......875 is the bear number to crash through.......wont happen tomorrow......should have a more bullish move......but would love to be wrong......I love danos count of us making another abc move here to 840sh.....gl

FWIW........

Many readers are not traders which is probably good during P2.....so tonight I want to suggest an alternative consideration.....the strong dollar trade appears to be breaking down ....with quantitative easing and disastrous deficits there appears to be a determination of the fed to send us into a disastrous monetary policy that will cause hyperinflation....either way our currency is toast. Rumors are already circulating that our bonds may lose their AAA rating (they should have already)...so I am going to start transfering much of my money market trading account into FXC the canadian/us . It will be my way of fighting and surviving what they are doing to my country. Do your own do diligence... gl

THE ESSENCE of WATS WAT

Thnx for contribution Palmerjoe...............
The Fed’s decision to invest in treasuries to loosen up tight credit markets, they have openly stated they plan on pumping 1 trillion dollars into this dumb and idiotic venture. This is called monetization of the debt, one branch prints treasury certificates and the other branch buys these certificates due to lack of outside demand. This is what countries that are in trouble normally do. Bonds have not been able to even trade past 130, let alone test their recent highs in the 142 ranges. In the short term it is even possible that bonds go on to put in new highs, but it will slowly dawn on long term investors that the US dollar is being diluted at an incredibly rapid rate, and they will then start to sell their long term holdings (20 year treasury notes and 30 year bonds), this will in turn force the feds to increase rates as this will be the only way to keep these investors happy- hence a vicious cycle will suddenly come into play. The result is:
Prices of commodities and anything that needs to be grown or dug out of the ground is going to increase in price significantly, but at the same time this credit crunch has destroyed the economies of many nations and the net result is that millions of individuals have lost their jobs on a worldwide basis; the overall job outlook in not going to improve. While we are going to have stagflationary forces kicking into full gear in the commodities' sector, deflationary forces will kick in (at least at the beginning) in terms of salaries (reason too many workers, too few jobs). This means that those that did not prepare are going to be in for extremely painful experience

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for THURSDAY

Bears in good position for wave C and will try to take out 892 tomorrow.....then 875....if we are in C then 840 is reasonable target in next few days......bulls will make one last run for 200dma must take out 920 tomorrow.......gl and good trading

DEFINITION OF A DEPRESSION

May 19, 2009
Letter from a Dodge dealerletter to the editorMy name is George C. Joseph. I am the sole owner of Sunshine Dodge-Isuzu, a family owned and operated business in Melbourne, Florida. My family bought and paid for this automobile franchise 35 years ago in 1974. I am the second generation to manage this business.
We currently employ 50+ people and before the economic slowdown we employed over 70 local people. We are active in the community and the local chamber of commerce. We deal with several dozen local vendors on a day to day basis and many more during a month. All depend on our business for part of their livelihood. We are financially strong with great respect in the market place and community. We have strong local presence and stability.
I work every day the store is open, nine to ten hours a day. I know most of our customers and all our employees. Sunshine Dodge is my life.
On Thursday, May 14, 2009 I was notified that my Dodge franchise, that we purchased, will be taken away from my family on June 9, 2009 without compensation and given to another dealer at no cost to them. My new vehicle inventory consists of 125 vehicles with a financed balance of 3 million dollars. This inventory becomes impossible to sell with no factory incentives beyond June 9, 2009. Without the Dodge franchise we can no longer sell a new Dodge as "new," nor will we be able to do any warranty service work. Additionally, my Dodge parts inventory, (approximately $300,000.) is virtually worthless without the ability to perform warranty service. There is no offer from Chrysler to buy back the vehicles or parts inventory.
Our facility was recently totally renovated at Chrysler's insistence, incurring a multi-million dollar debt in the form of a mortgage at Sun Trust Bank.
HOW IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA CAN THIS HAPPEN?
THIS IS A PRIVATE BUSINESS NOT A GOVERNMENT ENTITY
This is beyond imagination! My business is being stolen from me through NO FAULT OF OUR OWN. We did NOTHING wrong.
This atrocity will most likely force my family into bankruptcy. This will also cause our 50+ employees to be unemployed. How will they provide for their families? This is a total economic disaster.
HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN IN A FREE MARKET ECONOMY IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA?

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

PRETTY PICTURE

Enjoy SRS boys and girls........
http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/2009/05/real-estate-etfs-iyr-vs-srs.html

GOLD TRADE NOT OVER

Palmerjoe finds another gem ....PTP...........
http://seekingalpha.com/article/126564-gold-and-gold-stock-performance-during-deflation-and-inflation

SPEAK OUT RON

Thnx for link Palmerjoe.........read it ....you won't see it on the mainstream...

http://news.goldseek.com/RonPaul/1242572400.php

THE DAILY NUMBERS for WEDNESDAY

This is easy ...B wave playing out.....looks like nice wave form...markets outta gas...........may make it to 940sh.......doubt it.........No Reason to do it.....in fact makes no sense at all for GS boys to do the 200dma......but they can so be aware.......900 in play early......if they roll into C tomorrow then lights out for bulls............will continue to hold tight on SRS and sum FAZ........also holding UNG from last week ..will add at 14ish and 12..........no rush there. Scalped TBT yesterday ....that beautiful baby empty now.......Scalped some SRS at close....will readd on run to 930 for scalp........gl gang

Monday, May 18, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for TUESDAY

Oh my that was painful.........tuesday should touch 900 or punch slight through but not much damage as we try and form and expanded flat to 922....not sure its gonna get past 930 overall.......before an expanded flat does its thing and that is tank........so hang in there......gl gang

RANDOM SERIOUS POST

Was watching NBC tonight regarding their year long piece on Elkhardt Indianna...It brought the reality of what is actually unfolding across this country and world. In spite of the business media blitz of all the green shoots...reality is that families are struggling desperately right now in many places and the future will more than likely be much worse....I realize that as the depression unfolds for these people their struggles will be lost as everyone tries to protect their own families from the impending financial collapse. It would be wonderful to find the simple answer that the media tries to offer, but it is not going to happen. The greed of the politicians and wall street really did screw the proverbial pooch.... It doesn't bother me to have someone throw a barb my way now like it did a year ago...because now I know...its over....caput...through..done .....toast....I am actually optimistic about my future since I am well protected financially and otherwise, but most of the readers of this blog are probably not. I hope that all of you pay attention to what matters the most....NOT THIS MARKET...its only a game. Its your FAMILY and FRIENDS...if you lose track of that then this depression beats you. Remember DONT let it win......how you respond to this WILL define your life...gl

Sunday, May 17, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for MONDAY

I smell an early diagonal move as MMs test both sides......lets see how many bulls they can drag in for a ride in the morning ......watch closely if Advance to Decline sucks or volume poor.......for mid day trend down and ride to 875 test.......look at 888 and 892 for bull clues power through and we pop 900 before turn..........hehehe ....its a game be happy.......we are being probed.....gl gang....OBTW...we pop 875 soon

THERE IS GOLD IN THEM THAR HILLS

At least you better get some hidden there......this will be a race to debasement or the basement whichever sounds better....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/5324628/Gold-Its-a-bargain-at-930-an-ounce.html

Saturday, May 16, 2009

WE ARE SO CORRUPT

When the officials charged with enforcement believe they can do this it is no wonder the little guy is fkd..........pitchforks and torches...to the tower with em...

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE54E02S20090515

BANKS BROKE...READ ALL ABOUT IT

From Zero Hedge article........

The comments are likely to infuriate Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, because MatlinPatterson took advantage of the TARP’s matching funds to buy Flagstar Bancorp in Michigan. His confession appears to validate concerns that the bail-out strategy is geared towards Wall Street. Under the convoluted deal agreed earlier this year, MatlinPatterson has come to own 80pc of the shares while the US government has ended up with under 10pc.
Mr Patterson said the US Treasury is out of its depth and seems to be trying to put off drastic action by pretending that the banking system is still viable.
“It’s a sham. The banks are insolvent. The US government is trying to sedate the public because they are down to the last $100bn (£66bn) of the $700bn TARP funds. They think they’re doing this for the greater good of society,” he said, speaking at the Qatar Global Investment Forum.
Mr Patterson said it would be better for the US to bite the bullet as Britain has done, accepting that crippled lenders must be nationalised. “At least the British are not hiding the bail-out,” he said.
MatlinPatterson said private equity and hedge funds were deluding themselves in hoping to go back to business as usual after the trauma of the last 18 months.
“This is not a normal recession and there will be no V-shaped recovery. The crisis has destroyed leveraged companies. We’re going to see a catastrophic increase in the number of LBO’s (leveraged buyouts) going into default because they’re knee-deep in debt and no solution exists since they can’t refinance,” he said.
“Alfa hedge funds have been making their money by gambling with excessive leverage, so the knife that cuts off leverage is going to cut off their heads as well,” he said.
Like many bears, Mr Patterson expects the great crunch to end in deliberate inflation, deemed a lesser evil than outright depression.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for FRIDAY

I love the smell of napalm in the afternoon....maybe we will get some of THAT friday.....but I will settle for the smell of burnt toast.......bulls wanna crack900 bad....Dano has 906 as a key level...I am wanting green early to fade...I smell some pooo coming.......market need a healthy correction...look for 882 to crack manana................gl gang

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS...FOR THURSDAY

Its WAR......well told ya...we were headed lower.....and 875 is the target.........play the bounce ..everybody ....and their brother is...which makes me think...it is gonna be a tough call to even get there. Anyway this may sound like I am a scared bear but I will have to watch the premarket...probably take some off the table if it is bloody red......but not all....they may go through 875 if some awful news hits......and straight to hell.......lotta gaps to fill....7 total.gl gang

WE DON"T HAVE ENOUGH SHOES

Thanx to Palmerjoe for this work........

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Social Security and Medicare are fading even faster under the weight of the recession, heading for insolvency years sooner than previously expected, the government warned Tuesday. Social Security will start paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 2016, a year sooner than projected last year, and the giant trust fund will be depleted by 2037, four years sooner, trustees reported.
Medicare is in even worse shape. The trustees said the program for hospital expenses will pay out more in benefits than it collects this year, just as it did for the first time in 2008. The trustees project that the Medicare fund will be depleted by 2017, two years earlier than the date projected in last year's report.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Social-Security-and-Medicare-apf-15219531.html

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for WEDNESDAY

Here we go again ...bulls will push early for 930...look for a fade at 918...I am on an alternate that is a move below 900 tomorrow with 892 in play again...we will see.......I think we see 875 from the bears this week......gl gang

DEBT?? ...YOU DON"T HAVE A CLUE

It will only get worse....we have NO chance....we are toast........thnx palmer

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090511/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_budget

DANGER DANGER WILL ROGERS

GREAT post I took off the skf board.......oh yeh ...if you don't understand this post then you don't understand the very basics of what is happening to us..

The Chinese are beginning to question the wisdom of the Keynesians. Perhaps they are now questioning the wisdom of American consumers going into debt to purchase Chinese goods so that the Chinese can purchase U.S. debt. The Chinese have expressed concern about the future value of this debt. They are calling for the end of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, and have recently established currency swaps with Argentina, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Belarus. The Chinese are adding gold to their official reserves, and pleading with the IMF to sell all their gold in order to increase gold reserves further.The Keynesian's rely on a functioning bond market to support their economic theory. There must always be someone willing to purchase government debt, no matter how much is required, and no matter how great the government deficit. Record low interest rates and $13 trillion in loans and guarantees have only resulted in a small slowdown in the rate of economic collapse. Take away the ability of the government to go further into debt, or raise current interest costs, and the economic collapse will accelerate dramatically.The American economy cannot tolerate a stagnant or contracting state for very long. The economy does not generate sufficient cash flow to meet debt obligations, requiring strong economic growth in order to avoid a collapse of the bond markets. Should the economy not respond to the present stimulus, even the federal government may not be able to borrow. A collapse of the bond markets not only takes away the ability of the government to stabilise the banks and the economy, but the resulting high interest rates will bring America down both economically and politically.Perhaps the Chinese sense this. In their quest for world domination, economic warfare may be cheaper and more effective than a military conflict. A fire-sale of their U.S. debt holdings at a time the U.S. needs to raise $3 trillion in new loans could substantially raise interest rates, and call into question who has the financial capacity and desire to invest $4 to $5 trillion in U.S. government debt.To avoid an economic collapse, and prevent outside forces from taking advantage of it's present vulnerability, America needs to fundamentally alter its financial system. This involves a controlled collapse of the commercial banks and the Federal Reserve Board. The creation of the means of exchange must be taken away from the commercial banks and Federal Reserve, and given to the Treasury. Money would be in the form of Treasury notes (T.N.). The first step would be to simply create sufficient T.N. to purchase all bank assets.Bank deposit holders, no longer being able to use bank deposits as currency, would close their accounts in return for the T.N. the banks acquired in exchange for their loan assets. These T.N. would be held at banks established by the Treasury department with transactions occurring electronically. The Treasury now owns all debt obligations, presenting it with a number of policy options. One policy would then be to cancel all debt, and in a simple step solve the present debt crisis. Alternatively, all interest payments could be cancelled, with principle payments used to fund government operations, eliminating the need for government taxation. The commercial banks, no longer having any assets or liabilities cease to exist.Having solved the debt problem and establishing a stable monetary base, America will be able to achieve economic prosperity unparallel in human history. This of course is too much for the Keynesians. They would rather go deeper into debt and continue their search for "green-shoots".

Monday, May 11, 2009

GOLD ETFs and ETNs

Courtesy of Palmerjoe..........take a look gang when the treasuries quantitative easing blows up...you must be prepared.......consider these as one way......

DZZ ( 2X short gold ETN)DGP ( 2X long gold ETN)GLL ( 2X short gold ETF)UGL ( 2X long gold ETF)
GDX ( Gold Miners ETF)
GLD ( 10% of the value of daily price of physical Gold )GLL - performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar. "The fund normally invests assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics inverse to the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective."DZZ - performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index. "The index is intended to reflect changes in the market value of certain gold futures contracts and is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract."

be aware that DGP and DZZ reflects 2X percentage gain or decline of DAY's gold price COMPARE to price of Gold 30 days before. To understand more about difference between ETN index and ETF index see the following:http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/why-etns-are-riskier-than-they-look-29589

THE DAILY NUMBERS for TUESDAY

Change the channel.......that is the answer......bulls will want to reestablish 930....but bears may have a chance to take out 892 tomorrow.....watch 898 for hint....take it out and we will make it.......and if we do they just might have a chance.....to start taking back some of those 7 gaps below that aint filled......gl gang

MOYERS INTERVIEW ....A MUST WATCH

Tells you how screwed we were and are......... "you are saying our system became a PONZI SCHEME"......the entire system....."Madoff was a piker compared to this".....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz1b__MdtHY

Sunday, May 10, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS FOR MONDAY

Bulls should try to go for 200dma this week ....probably will consolidate a day or two and push to 945 level......look for bears to try and pull it under 900...........may achieve by Tues....not tomorrow.....decay on leveraged etfs terrible but it is simple math.....hindsite is 20/20...gl gang

SUNDAY ABBIE POST

I was waiting for this all weekend.............

mission accomplishedWell, it worked. GS has almost single handedly managed to get the SPX back over 900. Equities, especially financials, are so overbought it is stunning. I'm sure even GS is shocked at how well athis has worked. The best traders on this board - and no, I am not one of them - are also shocked. (BTW, it seems like Daneric's calls have been pretty good recently - ignore him at your own peril. http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com... lowering earnings estimates through the floor to the point where some companies can actually beat them, and massive amounts of outright fraud on the financial statements of every financial company, they'll managed to convince the sheeple that the worst may be over. One can assume sheeple will start re-investing their 401ks back into equities - who knows if we've already seen the majority of that action, or if it has yet to come. Thursday Apr 30 we saw a failed breakout of the SPX around 888. I have to believe that when the breakout failed, the powers that be decided they needed to pump the @#$ out of their equities balloon for a few more days before they released the many-times-watered-down and completely stressless 'stress test' results last Friday, so they delayed the results again. So last Monday they pumped the @$# out of the balloon... and Wednesday... and Thursday morning we got a blowoff top / bear trap. Also during the last week or two the banks, who are clearly running the country if you haven't noticed, convinced the simpleton 'regulators' to greatly reduce the shortfalls being reported at each bank. Can you imagine a drugmaker threatening regulators at the FDA the way these banks have threatened their regulators? Friday we heard that unemployment dropped to 'only' 611,000 jobs lost in April, which was apparently great news, so between that and whitewashed stress test results the market took off again. Never mind that we're already worse off than the govt's best case in their stress test scenario...http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c...They really pumped the ever loving #$# out of the worst of the worst. Nearly every insurance company missed earnings estimates - badly - but they've all skyrocketed anyway. BAC, C, FITB, hban, hig, the list of the zombie banks with skyrocketing prices is endless. At this rate all the banks will be able to cover their 'shortfalls' just by issuing new shares at these absurd prices in the next week or so. Maybe I'm wrong and they'll start tanking Monday, but it doesn't look too likely that this will happen any time soon.
I'll throw this out again - I will submit that faz, skf, srs, and the like are responsible for much of this rally - these big funds are forced to cover every day. If everyone dumped their positions in these poison pills, the market would notice, perhaps even plummet. Weeks ago I heard we were in the biggest rally since 1938. A week or so later I heard it was the biggest rally since 1933. I can only assume this is simply the biggest rally in modern history in the US.GS has figured out how to pump equities. By pumping equities, they can make sheeple and the MSM start believing the worse is behind us, which will draw more moths towards the flame. I'm sure the folks with jobs will start spending a little more than they have been recently, so the pumping will work to a small degree. But millions of recently jobless will soon start defaulting, which will lead to even more huge amounts of foreclosures, which will lead to even further drops in housing prices, which will lead to more layoffs....millions of jobs lost in the last 6 months, those folks probably are just now started to default... They tell us 611k jobs lost in April... but the census alone hired 60k for a total of 72k new government jobs, and they also tell us using the birth death model shows that 226k new jobs were created at businesses in April... I call bull#$# - the birth death model is complete fantasy, and even the nitwits that create the numbers will readily admit their idiot model doesn't work at all during a recession. Have you seen any indication that a total of 474k new jobs were created in the last 3 months as the birth death model tells us? I think not... They also adjusted Feb and March jobs losses up... again... as they always do, for another 60k jobs lost. Take the 611k jobs lost in April, add the 72k new govt jobs that should not exist, and negate the birth death model lie of 226k jobs, and we're at 900k jobs lost in April, following the recently revised official number of 699k jobs lost in March. Even if you only discount half the birth death model lies, we're at 796k jobs lost in April if you discount the 72k govt jobs. Or call it 724k jobs lost if you discount half the birth death model, and include all the govt jobs anyway. But remember, they'll revise April up again next month. At any rate, discounting some rational portion of the birth death model, April lost more jobs than March, and unemployment continues to rise quickly. Green shoots? Of poison ivy, perhaps...It is record joblessness, and record whitewashing.http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c...http://seekingalpha.com/article/136707-u...

Thursday, May 7, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for FRIDAY

Doesn't feel right with this call so you get an alternative........first call..we move right up through 930 pull back consolidate and take out 945 on monday.......then get our correction ....woo ..glad thats over..........or.......they trick us .....nah ...they wouldn't do that..........got right for 930 truncate the five wave and take us right down tomorrow to finish just above 900 again.......if they do they leave us with a possible gap down monday........or they just gap us down early to 892 by end of day...........that should leave um gasping on what to do.............total confusion for sure then.......gl ....not bad yesterday........huh

THE DAILY NUMBERS for THURSDAY

Bull want to crack 927 today......ultimately 947...but not today.....bears have a good chance to reverse at 927..........and have some pull back before 947....at least to 900.......watta mess this market is...........gl gang

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

PURE UNADULTERATED SCUM

You better wake up and smell the coffee...these clowns are killing this country...

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York shaped Washington's response to the financial crisis late last year, which buoyed Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other Wall Street firms. Goldman received speedy approval to become a bank holding company in September and a $10 billion capital injection soon after.During that time, the New York Fed's chairman, Stephen Friedman, sat on Goldman's board and had a large holding in Goldman stock, which because of Goldman's new status as a bank holding company was a violation of Federal Reserve policy.The New York Fed asked for a waiver, which, after about 2½ months, the Fed granted. While it was weighing the request, Mr. Friedman bought 37,300 more Goldman shares in December. They've since risen $1.7 million in value.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/05/conflict-of-interest-is-not-conflict-of.html?showComment=1241555700000

SIMPLE STATEMENT

Immred....has total command of the english language and this simple post completely cut through the BS....

The worse the news the quicker we should get to 955. And come on it won't really matter how much you make or lose right now in a few years when you will be duking it out with Mesayah for the last can of Alpo at Wally World with your ration coupons.

2nd Immred post ...

They have to take out the independents so they can control the timing and magnitude of the drops and rallies to coincide with the power grab, in sync one way trade. Expect to see a rash of harsher policies and banker bailouts after the next controlled drop. The current administration like the last doesn't quite understand the concept of rule of law as proven by the discrimination of certain secured creditors in Chrysler and soon to be bk GM, not to mention the continued occupation of Iraq. People will quickly get out of paper assets when the government changes the rules every few weeks. The only hard assets worth getting are those you can protect be it gold, guns or grains, for the rest get out from being a debt slave to the man.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for WEDNESDAY

Oh my!! ....isn't this dandy......ppt will need to be called in......I am not buying it.....this may be a set up...it stinks of it. ANYWAY here is my play 882 should hold tomorrow with ppt at the ready and that will be my trade area for selling shorts....Hope they blow through it and take out danos sacred 866......don't count on it. I expect tomorrow to still be ugly for bulls...but bears don't get your panties in a wad.....gl your pal kliguy

GM POW..........

General Motors may seek reverse stock split, swapping 1 share for every 100 from stockholders
By Associated Press 2:19 PM PDT, May 5, 2009
DETROIT (AP) — General Motors Corp. says it may offer current shareholders a reverse stock split that would give them one share of new stock for every 100 shares they currently own.The automaker says in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that the deal would be part of an agreement with the Treasury Department to swap at least half of GM's debt to the government for company shares.

Why would anyone be in these stocks long.....pure slaughter for commons. We are in the midst of a complete collapse. I have good friends in the car business and they are being dismantled by the crooked, greedy big bankes...the masters of the universe. Watta joke.

Monday, May 4, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS for TUESDAY

NO bullish count........bears should see 894 where I will make trade for srs AH purchase will dump a little more at 888 and 882.......will hold most of core....GL we need it........

BEEN IN THE EMERGENCLY ROOM

I had a large baseball bat extracted from my axx......heavy losses to my trading account...(if i had sold)...but I will hold.....NO short squeeze for me...I like pain. I have gone through these multiple times over the past year and this too shall pass. All the shorties out there have my condolences. Playing this game requires big balls and exreme patience.....anyway this is comin down ......soon

Sunday, May 3, 2009

THE DAILY NUMBERS FOR MONDAY

This channel has gotta break......uggggggg....bulls will try and push through 882 tomorrow...bears need to take out 870 hard ...but I maintain that the flu has them scared still and they will continue to keep it in the channel or even above....I will watch financials closely for weakness tomorrow to see if there is follow through from friday....if you are short here we still have risk to 900 tomorrow....gl.....watta mess......

WE ARE SO SCREWED

I heard Ratigan that day he said this and thought the same thing....


In Ratigan’s final CNBC broadcast from the floor of the NYSE he reported on what he called “an important story developing” that Goldman Sachs and “a variety of European banks”, in his assessment and that of his guests, essentially “perpetrated securities fraud” and an “insurance fraud scam” against AIG—and, by extension, the government and taxpayers funding that insurance company’s “bailout”—by insuring their questionable investment vehicles and, upon their devaluation, making claims on them to be paid by AIG “at 100 cents on the dollar” despite all of the markdowns “being forced upon every other” entity including the government, banks, shareholders, bond holders, taxpayers and homeowners.
“I think that it should be a bigger political issue than whether somebody bought an airplane… Forget the private jets, forget who got a million dollar bonus. Fifty billion dollars”, he emphasized, minimizing what he saw as populist side issues to “the real question” of how “government policy makers” are to deal with the “problems of contract law” inherent in the agreements of businesses receiving government assistance during the financial crisis.
“The banks are being asked to take ‘haircuts’ on their toxic assets, why are the Goldmans and the Deutsche Banks of the world not being asked to take haircuts on their toxic credit default swaps? It’s a real question. I will continue to pursue it for sure, I hope others will as well.” Ratigan praised New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s subpoena of AIG to determine the bank payouts as “legitimate inquiry” and looked forward to “a body of lawmakers in Washington D.C. who are going to ask, it appears, some of the same questions that I’m asking.” http://www.bearmarketinvestments.com/dylan-ratigan-goldman-sachs-fraud-scam-taxpayes-lose

Saturday, May 2, 2009

THIS TOO SHALL PASS

It may be killing off this market ...maybe they felt that it was a necessity but unintended consequences will eventually destroy us all.......this is a MUST READ

http://www.bearmarketinvestments.com/observations-on-nyse-program-trading

MAKISW POSTER GIVES YOU SOME FOOD FOR THOUGHT

I like to look at different metrics including arguments with different EW predictions....this does not exclude EW but does fly in the face of my man Dano's P2 as it stands now....Makisw is an excellent poster and here is his take.

I'm a strong believer in human psychology driving markets, so I figured that our current DOW 1982-2007 bubble deflating, should in some way resemble other bubbles of the past. After some digging, I found some VERY interesting stats, that you can check for yourself1. DOW 2008-2009 - peak to bottom so far was (-54%, from 14.2k to 6.5k), and we've had a +28% rally off that. For those who think this was the bottom this year, consider this:2. DOW 1929 - had a temporary bottom at (-60%), followed by a +28% rally. Result? Went on to make 5 more "new lows".3. NASDAQ 2001 - had a temporary bottom at (-56%) followed by a +28% rally. Result? Went on to make 3 more "new lows".4. CHINA 2008 - had a temporary bottom at (-51%), followed by a +27% rally. Result? Went on to make 2 more "new lows".5. NIKKEI 1990 - had a temporary bottom at (-63%), followed by a +36% rally. Result? Went on to re-test that bottom 2 more times, and fresh new lows the following year.Now that's 4 gigantic bubbles that had temporary lows in the -50% to -60% range, followed by +28% rallies in almost each case, followed by 2-5 "new lows" very quickly thereafter.Maybe it means nothing. Or maybe investor psychology hasn't changed much in 100 years.Its interesting that right now almost every trader and their grandmother is calling for a small pullback (fibonacci 38-50% like 800 or 780 on the S&P), then a run to 950-1000.And if you're one of those, you have to ask yourself why you are running with the herd. Because there is no example in history that would support this kind of move. And no amount of shrewd Elliott Wave labeling is going to change that.In fact, in every historical example that I could find...this is a key pivot point (this -55% drop, then a +28% rally), following which things tend to deteriorate quite rapidly - as the "hope" that drove the +28% rally evaporates and reality sets intons of traders and investors will be piling in around S&P 780-800, going for the "easy move to 1000"...so we'll get some sideways action there...but I suspect they will be like sheep being led to the slaughter house, thinking they're going on vacation.And in the summer, after new lows hit, Elliott Wave experts will probably be furiously re-drawing their waves, to make reality fit the theory once again.Just like they did last year.

AND YOU THINK WE ARE SAFE

Warning: Commercial real
estate is still in an earlier stage
of its collapse. In this sector, we
expect sharply lower prices,
much higher vacancy rates, and
more big declines in rents. So be
sure to avoid REITs and other
stocks exposed to commercial
real estate

Just to get your attention....thanx palmer joe for this article.....read it gang...most of you are in the camp of the sane, but as Primary 2 extends you may doubt the outcome of this calamaty.....read the article and make your own decisions.....gl kliguy your perrenial bear

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/six-egregious-lies-2-33419

SEEKING ALPHA NAILS IT

If you want a great read on this last big move read it......

http://seekingalpha.com/article/134482-why-this-rally-is-unsustainable