Monday, August 31, 2009

UBER BEAR CALL

To readers of this mouthpiece I seldom provide a definitive statement so take this for what it is worth......GET THE FOCK OUT OF THIS MARKET NOW.......and sit out the next few weeks and months. Something is rotten and I don't have a clue what it is...

My radar says that Dano's call for P2 ending very soon is premature, but I respect his work. No...what has me bothered is a confluence of events that makes me very unsettled. The movement of the dollar is disconcerting ...weakness in the dollar ...market weakness and oil still too high.....ugh..this is not a good brew folks......Asia red and Shanghai tanking big time this late hour...Futures here look like they may gap down in AM...we will see soon enough.

Nope ...what bothers me is WHY the FOCK did Obama reappoint Bernanke when he did....Wilsin on SKF brought that up and I just can't shake it....By nature I am a paranoid person....full of cynicism and cannot for the life of me understand WHY O would pull that rabbit out of his hat when he did......Soooooooo as many of you know who followed my paranoid posts last year...I DO get lucky more often than not. I have some ideas that I will share later but for now I need some time to assimilate my random ideas.......which brings me back to the beginning.

DON'T be LONG this market here even though I think they have a little more upside left ...maybe the the 50 or 61 fib off the bottom......Sit tight ...just like a deer in the headlights here. If you want to play short SH....I will NOT say what my position is here but you know my longer term strategy. Puleeeeeeeeeeeze get some physical gold now and add on the hoped for pullback when it comes.....If they want a no bid market .......hell ....we can give um one...gl gang

Saturday, August 29, 2009

CAN YOU TRADE THIS MARKET

The short answer to this is NO. At least not in the sense of historical norms. This is not a buy and hold market nor is it a market that an average trader can lock horns with the algo killing machines. They are designed to grind your stops into the dust in the long run. If you are an exceptionally skilled trader I do not have an issue with your assertion that this market can be beat. Now if you have followed me there is a way to survive this but that is your decision to make. For the initial headline question just be aware of what you are up against. As I have stated in the past this is a cataclysmic breakdown of our financial system and you are in the middle of a maelstrom. When you make a trade be aware of the other side. THIS is who is there. This came from an anonymous poster earlier.

GS is one of the firms with a room full of quants that control things, but the "runners" are a front for the best of breed, there are really 12 top quants worldwide that have the system under governance, each working for the top institutions. DB is another player, their quant is assigned to the EU. They work in tandem to align global markets and manipulate currencies. These people are the best, recruited from very young as soon as their potential is realized. Typical flags on early superior intelligence such as speech at extremely early ages, apptitude for learning multiple languages pre-teen, tendency toward dis-associative behavior toward peers (psychological profile), etc. In the past, these people were usually tracked once they hit people's radar and recruited into cryptography, now the top ones are targeted for this role. Each of these top people were selected out as protegies, The CFR controls it, with "R" family dictating the time series. Market top 10/14.

FUNNY WHAT A COINCIDENCE

My buddy tells me a little story yesterday and I put TLR and GORO on the junior miners post. Now Goldseek is plastering them all over in their breakout on gold story......I have ta tell ya....my source swears his innocence.......but I still want all of you to recognize the story itself .. The clock is ticking on this ponzi and gold and silver is the only place to hide.....let them lie. ...... let them inflate ........if you cant fight the quants this is your safety net....gl

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1251519803.php

Friday, August 28, 2009

IMPASSE

Fed has exhausted their reinflation play on the market.......the dollar sits on resistance of 77-78. If they don't bring the dollar off of this area ......its over. So I suspect that the market will begin to turn down over the next couple of weeks.......between now and then choppy action just like the last week. It is just a slaughter for day traders right now as the algo programs just move like the cold-blooded killers they are without conscience like sharks... feeding on the remains of traders frozen in their tracks. As many of you that are experienced traders can now admit this is a complete abomination. On the other hand if you believe in the tooth fairy then trading this POS is fairly easy.......ignore T/A and fundamentals and your gut and go LONG. The bulls will be slaughtered soon but beware bears this is not gonna be the long awaited P3. gl gang

JUNIOR MINER ON THE MOVE

Take a look at TLR........don't buy a ton but picked a little up here.........will trade.......gl as usual do your own DD.............trend is moving...UP

here is another spec play that is considered a potential .....GORO

http://www.goldresourcecorp.com/presentation/company/player.html

DOLLAR TANKING OIL UP GOLD UP MARKET UP

CNBC was all over this today.........Cashin and the floor trader that was the guest gushing how this was the entire story driving the market period.........imagine that.....hehe. Ok gang watch the action .....careful on the dto trade at 75 ....I like a little try there but still think they could break through.......and run to 85.......good chance they fail again at least for a quick trade......

Thursday, August 27, 2009

PIOTR STIRRING THE POT

Piotr dumping on Dano's party tonight......hehehe. I post this because it is an alternative thought process that reflects more along the line of Kress Cycle theory.....Do I know ......nope....but this market with quantitative easing......just beware... and be very cautious. Do not jump on ANY bandwagons...

Hello Dan, hello everybody,As I wrote earlier I work with my Professor and a team of scientists at Uniwersity of Berlin. We work on forcasts for our government. We deal with all worldwide economy aspects. Many people here asked me many questions. Today I have written that I will post my comment if I know something most seriously specific and accurate. We have been working hard and have completed a forcast for your market.Why do I want to help you? I have a huge sentiment to Ellioticians because my work started from learning EWT many years ago. We use it as an additional tool and I realize how huge loses it may cause to look and wait how waves develop and multiply and we do not know where the end is (zigzag, double zigzag or maybe triple zigazg?). It gave me a big painful lesson many years ago.You have a choice if you follow my clues or not, but at least you will perhaps be more careful with your trades.I want to emphasize that I respect Dan's work very much and I admire him. His ability to label the counts are extraordinary. But at the moment none Elliotician knows where the market is going to and where it will top.So the US market will not top in a few days. The prices of your indexes SP, DJI will be going up for one and half a month (1,5 month) and will reach the top in the first half of of October approximately in 30-th day session from now. Then the index will be falling about 14% from the peak for two month's time.Please do with this information whatever you want. I wish you a lot of success. Piotr

LOOK AT OIL

Those dirty scumbags....dumped half my dto yesterday...traded some today ......but omg....look at that......back to 75 in a heartbeat............imo.....anyway I think I said that was the trade to see if they can push it back through 75.....i luv this game.........don't bet they can't get through 75 be careful....THE REINFLATION LIVES

http://seekingalpha.com/article/158541-oil-supplies-confound-analysts-and-industry-monitors

http://seekingalpha.com/article/158323-oil-and-natural-gas-ratio-explodes-in-2009

http://seekingalpha.com/article/158323-oil-and-natural-gas-ratio-explodes-in-2009

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

I'M GETT'N NERVOUS

I have been predicting that P2 can extend much further .....even to over 1200 on the SnP. I have also felt that gold and silver may pull back on an interim dollar strengthening move with an interim market pullback......now to really confuse you as Joe likes to say here is another point of view of possible outcomes........always look at ALL possibilities......

On Monday August 24th the Hulbert Financial Digest reported that the HGNSI ‘gold bullishness indicator’ had dropped to 3.8% (http://www.marketwatch.com/). This indicates that the vast majority of gold analysts are either neutral or bearish regarding gold at the moment. One surmises that most of these analysts are waiting for the COT’s to ‘do their thing’. Eventually the threat of the COT’s trying to cover their short positions is going to be a gold driver, as they are forced to cover while the market races ahead of them. This HGNSI report is the kind of news that we contrarians love to hear! It sets the stage for a price rise!

“A government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have.”
Thomas Jefferson.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1251322421.php

IMMRED POST

Just Reposting what Kli got earlier.Over lunch yesterday I was thinking what would bring oil from the 75-85 range back down to the GS 45 temporarily and then saw the video on Yahoo news about the estimates for the swine flu in the US this Fall. I think the possible numbers from the whitehouse were 30-50% of the US population coming down with symptoms. 1.8 million hospital admissions and 30-90,000 deaths. The initial panic will be enough to easily crush the regular and commodity markets for 4-6 weeks. The administration will panic and unleash a new wave of stimulus programs to stem the consumption destruction. Just my personal opinion is the 1st flu wave will not be that bad, the subsequent waves of mutations months out will be very problematic crushing any relief rally from the lows this fall.http://news. yahoo.com/ topics/swine- flu-outbreakA word of caution something else may further drive up the oil markets before the possible decline due to flu fear. Like another small war in the Middle East (best time to carry out an attack would be when oil prices are getting crushed to limit the upside spike), China doing an early dump of the US dollar before the end of this or early next year before the new stimulus funds reach the markets.I would hold off aggressively shorting oil until you see either exhaustion in the S&P or big news stories about major quarantines at schools throughout the country, with a very close eye on the US dollar index. Just an opinion, I would probably play it more safe and short the S&P or NASDAQ at that point.At these rich valuations and pricing support manipulations oil is only a quick trade not long term hold especially for leveraged ETFs like DXO and DTO.Nothing wrong with holding cash, precious metals, foreign PM miners, or cases of Alpo. Unless you have a longer time horizon 3-12 months in unleveraged positions, the deck is stacked against you the more you trade in leveraged ETFs and bagholder financials.You cannot create too much new discretionary consumption demand from the sick or unemployed. But first we still need to finish off this blowoff to the upside in a nice commodity spike fashion to culminate P2 and crush the last of the permabears in disbelief and awe at the power of GS/Fed/Treasury behind the curtain.
August 26, 2009 1:39 PM

THIS WILL BE THE CANARY

in the proverbial coal mine. Even though the current Bond auctions appear to be successful , that is a complete illusion in the US longer denominations. Opacity is provided in several ways but do not be fooled it is pure monetization by the fed. Time is running out on these scum as they sell my country and yours down the proverbial chitter....

Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions for any further signs of capital flight, which is when those net inflows of foreign capital turn negative. And if for some reason the unlikely happens and it gains momentum, the dollar and bonds and stocks can all go lower in unison, and there is no place to hide except perhaps in some foreign currencies and precious metals.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/guest-post-plunge-in-foreign-net.html

OIL NUMBERS OUT SOON

Waiting for oil numbers ...if inventory is a good draw may get a short squeezed but with housing numbers keeping dollar green can oil stay green today ......dunno but MAY be dto play with strong dollar today......pay attention.......look to fade up oil move on inventory numbers

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

BERNANKE SAVED US

Not everyone of course swallowed the bull today .....but of course when all you have is a propaganda machine to pump then you have to use what ya got. I do disagree with Roach that we are entering a Japan style recession . This will be much different in a number of ways and much more sever.......


Before the Lehman bankruptcy, Bernanke was an adherent of the Greenspan-professed doctrine to “clean up after bubbles.” This is what others have called “The Greenspan Put,” otherwise known as an asymmetric monetary policy response – what I would term “lax during the bubble, and loose after it.” Clearly, this doctrine was responsible for much of the carnage.
Bernanke was also a proponent of the “Asian Savings Glut” theory which puts much of the blame for global imbalances at Asia’s doorstep and exonerates over-consumption by American citizens for a credit crisis which began in America. I have called this the Blame Asia meme. While there may be excess savings, it is disingenuous to blame Asia for problems created in the United States.
Bernanke, like Greenspan, is an ultra-free market Libertarian who believes markets always are better informed than regulators. This takes libertarian views to an extreme which I have dubbed “Deregulation as Crony Capitalism.” I see a more nuanced belief in free markets as more appropriate.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/stephen-roach-case-against-bernanke.html

AN AVALANCHE OF DEBT

More good news for recovery on the horizon. I can't wait for the next stimulus. Of course our politicians are going to rise to the occaision and ask for sacrifice from all sectors of Americans(except the banksters that got us into this) and of course all Americans will pitch in ....with a selfless abandon like days of yesteryear.....NOT. Anyway we are not at a crossroads any longer we are only kicking a can down the road and this can is full of C-4. When it goes off it will bring the Avalanche on down the mountain. Forecasting this is as easy as forecasting the first wave of the debt sunami ramifications that occurred in P1 this past year........

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Most-red-ink-ever-9-trillion-apf-2714959279.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode

Monday, August 24, 2009

STRATEGY

In a controlled manipulated environment that is slicing seasoned traders to ribbons trying to trade off of conventional T/A and EW....I suggest that you look to another strategy. Determine first if you have the resources and determination to stay in a market that is being manipulated to the extent that this market is. I have made repeated calls to readers NOT to be trading this market in this current range......but if you are in... to be in only the gold or silver miners as a position......gg auy ssri ....I have other positions but do NOT recommend them......now here is my strategy......IF you MUST trade......wait until oil hits 84 and buy DTO......before the hard down move of the market in september or october.........then when dollar strenghtens on severe market move and many proclaim P3 .......dump DTO and buy gg auy ssri heavy........and hold through DECEMBER...........now here is why.....this dovetails into EW possible scenario also.....but buyer beware always........

It will be sad to wave goodbye to our friend, the 10-year cycle, in a few weeks. After the 10-year cycle peaks it will be up to the 6-year cycle to provide any longer-term support between now and 2012 when the final “hard down” phase of the Kress 120-year Grand Super Cycle begins. In this commentary we’ll focus on the remaining portion of the 10-year cycle and how it can still be used to good effect by investors between now and year-end. That the broad market has benefited from the peaking 10-year cycle is obvious and needs no elucidation. Clarification is needed, however, within the scope of the Kress cycles to tell us what we can expect from the market from now until year’s end based on cyclical comparisons.
http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1251061200.php

Sunday, August 23, 2009

OBAMA ONE TERM PRESIDENT

Courage is hard to quantify. Many of you that read this blog have personally experienced events in your own lives that were pivotal in determining your entire future. I would imagine that if most of you were honest with yourselves and insightful you could recognize that the choice/choices you made were almost without exception the "easier" of your choices. Those of you that made the choice that entailed the most personal risk to yourself but was the moral high ground frequently found that the old addage that "no good deed goes unpunished" applied fully.

Obama to me anyway seemed the clear choice between McCain and the path our country was on. However my choice was not made without realizing that the banksters and military industrial complex would still be exerting tremendous influence on him. THAT is only a fact of life. Yes we will have choices but those choices will be given to us by the banksters.

As I look at the convergence of the Kress Cycle and EW P5 it has become apparent that 2012 will be a heralded by another dramatic change. As the Obama administration takes form and his moral and ethical decisions ie public interest collides head on with the banksters interests. To this point you only need to look at the continuation of the bailout policies and GS bonuses etc.l

Many of you look at the current health care debate as another intrusion of government into our lives......it is of course. BUT and this is critical.......government ALREADY is completely involved in the daily workings of health care... they are already rationing healthcare....medicare and medicaid are 100% government healthcare....the only difference is the government is letting the insurance companies rob the 40%of the population of their remaning dollars to prop up the banksters in the healthcare insurance business..

An incompetent government already runs health care and at the same time are letting the insurance companies ie banksters rob us blind.......therein lies the premise of this essay....Obama is willing to sacrifice the lynch pin of this reform.......public option ....which tells me that his moral courage is not enough to save this country......or maybe he will be so corrupt he will get elected for a second term......its worked before.

Watch for 2012 its like a famous movie quote....somthins comin.....its predicted......Kress........EW primary5........listen ..........listen .....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynKoZD-sFi4

Saturday, August 22, 2009

STRIKE SEPTEMBER 15

I will not just post this one time..........and I hope everyone of you joins me in e mailing or copying this post and beginning the call to STRIKE. We are powerless in many ways but we don't have to be. This is a REAL call to fight. RIGHT or LEFT or MODERATE.......this affects us all......We are all betrayed .........BETRAYED by a System ...Betrayed by the politicians .....OUR Representatives...THIS SYSTEM IS CRAP. I will call for the date.......IT is September 15....start Emailing this date and lets get this ball rolling contact all the blogs this weekend and remember the day September 15....the day our financial markets collapsed in 2008. OBTW they did collapse. We died that day. It was the end of free markets . Free markets that finally collapsed from the weight of greed and corruption. Don't complain about this if you won't take the time to spread this across the country this weekend.....hundreds of you read this daily send it to the blogasphere and have them spread the world........if you can't strike .........slow your work down sept 15 ...sick time leave time......stick it in these bastards and let them know we won't take it anymore......Post this on Yahoo message boards this weekend and days to come ...don't give up. Here is an excerpt from the link.........pick up the baton. Hell lets give it a try. DON"T TRADE STOCKS on SEPT 15 NO STOCK TRADES

Daniel Shays was a farmer in western Massachusetts. Like many other farmers of the day, he was being driven into bankruptcy by the banks' predatory lending practices. (Sound familiar?) Rallying other farmers to his side, Shays led his rebels in an attack on the courts and the local armory. The rebellion itself failed, but a message had been sent: The bankers (and the politicians who supported them) ultimately backed off. As Thomas Jefferson famously quipped in regard to the insurrection: "A little rebellion now and then is a good thing. The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
Perhaps it's time to consider that option once again.
I'm calling for a national strike, one designed to close the country down for a day. The intent? Real campaign-finance reform and strong restrictions on lobbying. Because nothing will change until we take corporate money out of politics. Nothing will improve until our politicians are once again answerable to their constituents, not the rich and powerful.
Let's set a date. No one goes to work. No one buys anything. And if that isn't effective -- if the politicians ignore us -- we do it again. And again. And again.
The real war is not between the left and the right. It is between the average American and the ruling class. If we come together on this single issue, everything else will resolve itself. It's time we took back our government from those who would make us their slaves.
Goldman Sachs
The American government -- which we once called our government -- has been taken over by Wall Street, the mega-corporations and the super-rich. They are the ones who decide our fate. It is this group ...
The American government -- which we once called our government -- has been taken over by Wall Street, the mega-corporations and the super-rich. They are the ones who decide our fate. It is this group ...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-flynt/common-sense-2009_b_264706.html

Friday, August 21, 2009

OH MY AINT IT GRAND

What we are seeing today is a worldwide attempt to make a last ditch attempt at pulling China out of their nosedive.....its called REINFLATION. DAMN the dollar full speed ahead....This will be Ben's memorable phrase.....now to slightly digress.....old people do that .......a small aspect of the dollars demise needs to be pointed out and why I think it plays into EW more than it affects the Kress cycle call....I have great respect for EW but............and here is a big BUT.....If a country and/or evil entity within that that country ie. Federal Reserve decide that to save their consituency the Large Banks Oligarchy then I contend EW in the shorter term can be very difficult to interpret......INTERPRET.....ie..primary counts become secondary or tertiary or worse....The reason that I believe this unusual occurrence can occur can be found in recent history. One only has to go back to the last bear market and the EW call by Prechter....Instead of Precters call we recieved a bull market through most of 2007 due to massive liquidity injected into the system by the Fed ......now we have a greater problem to deal with. That is....the decision to sacrifice the dollar to save the equity market and stop evil DEFLATION. On the surface that sounds like a reasonable trade. I am not going to take the time on this thread to go into all aspects of this decision and its effects.....but remember natures law for every action there is and opposite and equal reaction. Here is a simple example.....Grandma saved 500k and has social security......like a good conservative investor (a responsible citizen) she has her money in CDs drawing 3%....she uses that 15k to scrape by with her social security....but stagflation and devaluation of her dollar......will force a very well healed lady almost overnight into poverty which is occurring right now........Bem to support the dollar must raise 10year rate to at least 4.5 and that would spell disaster for housing.......I mean it DISASTER....and his precious Big Banks would die.. Very simplified but that is our catch 22...........but that doesn't even touch on the inter-relationship of the dollar as the world's reserve currency and China and oil and our international corporations health and global food prices and geopolitical unrest and on and on.....so I will stop here today and give it a rest......gl gang..........god save the dollar........cuz ben aint

Thursday, August 20, 2009

THE CLOCK IS RUNNING OUT ON US

The war within our economic system rages with players engaged in a death struggle with our monetization......I cannot overemphasize how the following article defines the insane path we are on....I believe this is the issue that is responsible for the bizarre movements of the stock market ,gold , oil, commodities,....it all revolves around this war.....here is a piece.....

The foreign purchase declines from peak levels two years ago have fallen off a cliff, much like that of Acapulco. The image of a brave diver is also quite vivid, as risk is determined by the shifting water (liquidity) level. The United States credit markets are losing their legitimate liquidity and increasingly are turning to the desperate reckless alternative, namely the dreaded MONETIZATION. Mortgages in the United States must maintain funding from the USFed and USGovt by direct purchase, no longer a market action. There are mainly sellers. The corporations in the US must maintain funding from a more desperate means. See the Samurai Bonds offered in Japanese Yen denomination, the ones growing in popularity. My view is that a good slice of USGovt Treasury Bonds will be denominated in foreign currency routinely within one year, if the US$ system survives in its current form that long. The conclusion is clear from the messages, both graphic and statistical, that THE US$-BASED BONDS OF ALL TYPES WILL RELY ON DIRECT MONETIZATION VERY SOON OR IMMEDIATELY

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1250798400.php

SPECULATIVE PLAY

Careful here but for the gamblers ONLY out there....nice day trade here with only a million float.........joe found this jewel yesterday at 1.60 OMG......the baastid cleaned up.....anyway play the stocks here but be careful .......NO FLOAT........EDAP.....

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Good article giving you an idea at how you can think about positioning yourself for the longer term consequences of monetizing the debt and the printing of massive ammounts of new paper. Always keep in mind that Kress gives us a timeline of 2012-2014... as a severe collapse with true overall deflation but .................

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1250748240.php

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

BE AWARE

Quick one here. If things get ugly be aware holding bullion bars not wise......harder to transact...due to drilling and filling with lead.......harder to do this with coins......so be aware coins will be easier transactions when you sell......I have never used these dealers but they come from a good source .......do you OWN DD.......Resource consultants....8004944149.......and Frank Sanders 8882189226......If they are good let me know.....gl

DIRE STRAITS..........WARNING WARNING

If you follow this blog......then you know how I feel about our monetization of our debt. The following article and complete link will give you a chilling look at our future...at least the potential disaster we are creating. I spent a little time recently looking for a good example of our predicament and thought you would find this more than a little unsettling.......for the sake of G_d get into physical gold now and continue to add if it pulls back to support...

Please read this entire article's link....it is most fascinating.....here is an excerpt...

From Mid-1922 to November 1923 hyperinflation raged. The table above tells the story. Seemingly Reichsbank officials believed that the basic trouble was the depreciation of the mark in terms of foreign currencies. In late 1922 they tried to support the mark by purchasing it in the foreign exchange markets. However, since they continued printing new currency at a feverish rate, the attempt failed. They merely succeeded in buying worthless marks in return for valuable gold and foreign exchange.
All hope of checking the collapse of the mark vanished in January 1923 when the French--alleging treaty violations--occupied Germany's key industrial district, the Ruhr. Germany subsidized the occupied companies and financed an expensive program of "passive resistance." New billions of marks were printing to finance these heavy new costs. By late 1923, 300 paper mills were working top speed and 150 printing companies had 2000 presses going day and night turning out currency.
Under the forced draft of inflation, business was now operating at feverish speed and unemployment had disappeared. However, the real wages of workers dropped badly. Unions obtained frequent increases, but these could not keep pace. Workers --domestics, farm workers and various white collar groups-- fared especially badly. They had no unions to fight for pay boosts for them, and often they were reduced to hunger. Many people showed visible signs of malnutrition. Skilled workers, writers, artisans and professionals found their wages lagging until they reached the unskilled worker level, which often meant the bare minimum needed to support life.
Businessmen began to abandon their legitimate occupations to speculate in stocks and in goods. Thousands of small businessmen tried to eke out a living by speculating in fabrics, shoes, meat, soap, clothing--in any produce they could obtain. Each fall in the mark brought a rush to the shops. People bought dozens of hats or sweaters.
By mid-1923 workers were being paid as often as three times a day. Their wives would meet them, take the money and rush to the shops to exchange it for goods. However, by this time, more and more often, shops were empty. Storekeepers could not obtain goods or could not do business fast enough to protect their cash receipts. Farmers refused to bring produce into the city in return for worthless paper. Food riots broke out. Parties of workers marched into the countryside to dig up vegetables and to loot the farms. Businesses started to close down and unemployment suddenly soared. The economy was collapsing..

http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html

Joe I threw this in for your listening pleasure....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOpErJWSIg0&NR=1

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

CONTROLLED DETONATION

Say hello to yo little brotha......this is the fire that is burning inside our economic system......We are toast and this is becoming obvious. China holds our future in their hands....we are inflating our economy at their expense and trying to convince the Chinese that it is to their benefit to allow us to monetize our debt. My guess and ONLY a guess is they have had ENOUGH....the game is over and the only question is how quickly the let us drown now in our red ink. When this becomes more than a leak watch the ten year start to ramp up rates.....when we cross over 4.5% game over. USD will be below 72............and we will be entering third world status.....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8207174.stm

“My view is that, eventually, we will see a much higher inflation rate than in the '70s. In the short term, because of the collapsing asset market and increased savings rate in the US, we will see deflationary pressures. But in the long run, we'll have a much higher inflation rate. That will be negative for US bonds and equities.”- Marc Faber, famous investor and market commentator, April 2009

If you suspected that fraud, corruption, incompetence, and coverups at the highest levels are at the heart of our current financial crisis, you're right.
"...ideology enabled criminality and political failure led to economic crisis as Wall Street bought Capitol Hill..."The Great American Bank RobberyVideo - LectureBy William K. Black1. Why do we have repeated, intensifying economic crises?2. What can white collar criminology add to our understanding of what's going wrong?

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/08/this-financial-disaster.html

Monday, August 17, 2009

MOST EXCELLENT

Found this on a Dano comments from jhnewman......very cogent......I have talked about this possibility and you must keep this scenario in mind.......

Another possibility, and one that I am starting to think might be the truth, is that the P2 wave we're all looking for peaked in early January. So if this "B wave" doesn't hold 950 and retreats to 925 or 906 (the big gap in the SPX) or 900 or 882 (38% retrace of rally off March lows) -- which I suspect it will -- we're probably not in a cyclical (intermediate term) bear market at all. We might be in a cyclical (intermediate-term) bull market. And I'm starting to suspect that's the truth.No one can argue that we're in a long-term (secular) bear market. And if you want to get a better idea of the truth of this, set up a ratio chart of $INDU:$GOLD, which shows we definitely peaked in 1999-2000, and that most of the second top in the SPX wasn't from rising stock prices but a plummeting dollar.Anyway, a number of very respectable TA people are saying we're in an intermediate-term bull market off the March lows. And the "big signal" they use to determine if we're really in a cyclical bear market or cyclical bull market is an interesting one. Carl Swenlin, of Decisionpoint.com, uses, on the daily chart, a cross of the 50 day EXPONENTIAL moving average above the 200 day EXPONENTIAL moving average. John Murphy, who wrote the Bible of TA, seems to use a weekly cross of the 13 week EXPONENTIAL moving average v. a 34 week EXPONENTIAL moving average. If you try that out, both of those signals have happened, although not by much, and maybe it's a false signal and we're going to be whipsawed as the indexes comes down. But both those guys seem to think we're in intermediate-term bull markets. And Murphy's site even has a "bearish" Elliott Wave count on the big picture and a "bullish" one.I went and tried these signals on the 2000-2003 SPX cyclical bear market. The cross came in May of 2003, 2 1/2 months AFTER the start of the cyclical bull market. That signal cross came after the big head-and-shoulders bottoming formation.I also tried those signals on the 1990-1993 Nikkei crash. On one of the big bounces, the faster moving average ALMOST crossed the longer one, but didn't. The cross came AFTER the big bottom was hit, over 3 years after the top.The signal is not a strong one right now, but a week cross is there. We'll see if it sticks. But, so far, this argues that we are in a cyclical bull market -- that all the radical stuff the Fed and the government has done has stalled the crash dynamic and has started to reflate things somewhat. Even Marc Faber was talking the other day like these reflation efforts may work for quite some time.Anyway, it's starting to look to me like we had a vicious, violent 5-wave cyclical bear crash THAT ENDED IN MARCH. Since then, we've been in a cyclical bull market. This suggests that the big head-and-shoulders bottom is for real, and that "signals" the SPX getting up to 1200-1250 as a rough top.Now, I'm not saying that's the end of it. I think we're going to have what is technically a "double-dip" recession, which we all know is a depression. The question is, how high will the middle point of the "W" go, and when will it peak? Overall, then, it's looking more and more to me like we've had a cyclical bear market, the middle part is now a cyclical bull market that is going to peak around 1200 at some point, and then we're going to start another cyclical bear market, either testing or breaking though 666. The reason I say we might not break through in the end is because in their radical efforts to reflate, the authorities could turn this from a deflationary depression like the 30s into a sideways moving long-term bear market like the 70s. They can do this by doing everything in their power to reflate...in that case though, it's the dollar that will get crushed. But they'd much rather see that than have all asset classes continue to drop. Anyway, just some thoughts on where we might really be. Again, that moving average cross that signals "bull" of "bear" market might be a false signal at this point...maybe it might "uncross" in the next 4-8 weeks if the market keeps dropping. But Murphy and Swenlin seem to be saying that we're in a cyclical bull market, as hard as that is to believe. We're all trying to listen to the charts. We'll just keep trying. Just some ideas.

TAKE A LOOK SILVER BUGS

Possible short of the metal here .........playing zsl........or you can short slvr

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

VACATION OVER

Now back to wurk........Nice pull back with dollar trade ratcheting up......hmmmm.....I just can't believe it (smell the sarcasm)......After driving the shorts to hell its time for the boyz to drag a few fish back into the market......(and coincidentally make a little payola on their shorts) .....the real question is how far will they drag it down and how long......I can only guess here but probably will be a stop shop down for a couple of weeks max.....Everyone and their brother said sell-off in september..........or ..........october........we will see..but the maxim when everyone expects a sell-off ....wellllllll...............guess what.........look for choppy trading next 2 months with p2 staying intact through this year with at least 1100 target and very possibly a full 61.8 fibinacci which puts us ultimately over 1200.......so trade carefully......gl gang.....oh and for today ......I don't give a chit......I iz in zsl dto tbt auy.....a few others ......and CASH.......luv this game...

Friday, August 14, 2009

GAME ON

Its only a game....The real life effects of the stock market and economy are what counts.  People have to support their children.....feed them, clothe them, provide a roof over their heads, school, and medical care....THATS REAL LIFE....and for millions and I mean MILLIONS of these americans....that responsibility....is on quicksand. Their American dream has been jeopardized by years of economic abuse. It is now time to pay the piper. Our system of leverage has crashed and only a pitifully sad attempt to sprinkle pixie dust back on it is ongoing.   No one wants to bite the bullet and do the "right thing".  So for awhile longer we will continue to maintain the illusion of our empire...Our politicians are the best money can buy....well maybe not the best....but certainly the oligarchy running our country is happy.  A friend of mine made a comment to me the other day that Goldman will probably eventually short their own company to hell in P5.....think about that gang.........SHORT THEIR OWN COMPANY TO HELL.     Brilliant.....pure brilliance....then the key.....take it private for pennies.......OMG....they are evil......hehehehehehheheehe....I luv it...

BUSINESS AS USUAL

Or is it ...at the time of this post there are disturbing movements in the market...dollar barely up market down HARD....gold silve up.....These are indicative of a fractured market for us......If dollar doesn't catch up and market stays down....then we have problems in river city.....and I dont mean 76 trombone problems.....keep your focus on the dollar market gold relationship.  If you don't see the normal dollar up with dow down and gold down.....then inflation/stagflation coming hard....and that will not be good for our country.....play this treacherous market at you own risk ...this should NOT be invested in with money you may need.....buy physical gold and silver instead.......gl gang.....we are swimming with sharks....but then we already knew that.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

HOPE YOU ALL ARE HAVING A NICE SUMMER

I am gaining confidence in our market and our Economy....My man O is doing a great job letting GS paint the tape.....unfortunately a lotta retail schmucks are about to be slaughtered but what the Hey....they have been warned....meanwhile I feel confident.....confident that my crab pots are gonna have lotsa crabs in um in the morning....confident that my kids will have lotsa hell to pay for my confidence in the years to come......gl gang

MY CASE FOR BERNANKE'S REAPPOINTMENT

One has to be very cautious when criticizing our country's commander in chief ....after all he took over a mess from his predecessor.....Alan Greenspan.     Who could have known?  After all Mr. Beryanke and his Goldman Sachs sidekick Hank Pullson  repeatedly told Congress throughout last year that NO ONE saw this coming NO ONE....ok well maybe a few "crazy bloggers" with degrees from some no name "state university" did. ....but of course that doesn't count.  The "skull and crossbones" crowd just didn't see it coming.   Throughout 2008 this mantra was repeated  during testimony after testimony. 

During the 60 minutes interview did you hear Beryanke say....WE BLEW IT.  The handwriting was on the wall . All the signs were there in plain view.  All of our excesses from a credit bubble a mile high were apparent.  My grandma was yelling BEN BEN...its gonna blow.....NOPE....you did not hear anything like that from Ben.   Honesty is only a commodity for Ben. 

Maybe we should go back a little further.. Maybe we can look at Bens testimony to Congress in 2006 and 2007 when he repeatedly stated that that there was no subprime problem and then when it was plain to everyone there was he stated that it was contained and would not spill over into prime.  Then when that occurred he stated to Congress that the turnaround was only a couple of quarters away.    Hmmmmm....sounds just like today.    

Perhaps this is the kind of individual we need in this position.  Either he is grossly incompetent or he is a duplicitous liar. Yup ...I have made my conclusion....He is perfect for this position...Volker would just be too much for Joe six pack to absorb.  Bring back Ben ...BRING BACK BEN ....BRING BACK BEN...After all he has been with us all the way through this...

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

HAPPY FED DAY

Lets call this rally for what it is.....another painted tape for the FOMC.   So what....if I were in their shoes I probably would structure this recovery the same way.  At least I would if I were looking at it from a political standpoint principally.   Longer term without removing our excesses we are doomed.

No Credit bubble has ever been created like this one and there is no precedent. We are in uncharted waters for our country and this is the chosen path that our oligarchy has chosen for our government to follow.  This country was founded on freedoms that have been destroyed by the masters and if the law of nature is not to be allowed to operate then you can only delay and create a larger problem for the law of nature to resolve....one way or another nature will still have the final say .  2012-2014, It's over.

Did anyone notice the comments on monetization today....hehe....you better pay attention. You must remember when your mother told you ...."you can't have your cake and eat it too". WELLLLL.....anyway P2 still on....gl gang

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

JUST DOLLAR POSITIONING AND SUCH

On the road gang ....so I will be brief.  Nothing has changed to indicate the strategy of waiting for gold and silver to correct with a dollar strengthening move in the near term....prior to a march upt to 1100 or 1225 on the SnP...some healthy market correction seems to be in play but if you can outguess the Boyz then be my guess. As the dollar strengthens I will be mostly in cash as this chess game shows itself. If they bring the dollar up to 84 I will add a little GG and AUY...and maybe try to play some gap scalp trades with them.  For the time being they seem to want to bring oil back down for another round of short squeezing.  UNG remains range bound and may get a little pop with hurricane ally coming up.. But long term utimately gas should hit six bucks.....a year from now or less.....beyon that i have no visibility...enjoy the summer ....we are in our final years as the empire.....and the Law of Nature must be fulfilled......greed and arrogance will be swept away......gl gang 

Monday, August 10, 2009

CHINA IN TROUBLE

This is telling....you can paint the tape all you want to but Joe is getting concerned that our masters overseas are sinking. They are having internal strife and issues that are suppressed but this will only add to their woes. My suggestion if you are a trader is to start nibbling on FXP....carefully. If this breakdown is confirmed next month then then their tape has run its course..gl gang

Hint: Watch the dollar action this week to see if we strengthen it for the Chinese.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-exports-imports-fall-apf-1697146761.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBW2oQTJDq2E

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idINHKG33009320090811

Russia in full collapse: This is startling .......

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYImZJKQlUnk

BEAM ME UP SCOTTY

And the fiction continues......the repeated time line in the below video will probably coincide with my previously mentioned Kress bottom of 2014....this will be a critical time for those left standing to reenter the market long and hold.......jeeeeze wouldn't that be nice...provided the world is still here. I will try and remain positive that some semblance of capitalism still exists and we have not been destroyed by war, nature, or pestulence. To repeat .....it is the darkest before the dawn. Dollar strengthening today ....gold down hard...oil starting to fall....WTF knows...but it is playing out the way we have been discussing. Lets see if the boyz give us our dollar strengthening scenario......you know what to be waiting to buy.......

http://pragcap.com/the-last-bear-standing

Sunday, August 9, 2009

RELAX AND ENJOY

An oldie but goodie.....you remember this last year gang....."and put the load right back on me"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=712kRqri2No

CRITICAL JUNCTURE

As I have been pounding the table now for several weeks on this blog (while joe has been beating my brains in) the crucial relationship between the dollar, precious metals, and the market have reached a tipping point. This article lays out a scenario that I have felt has a strong likelihood of occurring shortly. Whether it does or not ..remains to be seen. If you are going to be using the strategy that has been discussed on this blog then please read this article and just be aware.
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1249844182.php

UNG

This is UNG seasonality changes coming...One prime news mover on gas is the hurricane season ........you NEVER wish for this but you have to understand Nature and its effects....keep your eyes on this new one and how it effects UNG.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Saturday, August 8, 2009

THE QUESTION

Tom on an earlier post , posed the question of what significance was the decoupling of oil on friday....more exactly what was the significance of the monster 2 day dollar move up with oil , gold barely moving down.....BARELY. And add insult to injury the market exploding upwards. This question is of paramount importance to all of us if we are looking to invest in this market. As Palmer has repeated privately to me we are at a crossroads. The market is sending us contradictory signals. This should signal danger to all of us. When you see these signals STAY IN CASH. Watch for confirmation from the market in which direction they are going to take this. IS the dollar move the fake out. OR is the market oil gold going to continue to roll in a manipulated engineered reinflation of a bubble.....Did you ever dream we would be discussing this a year ago. Essentially NO debate now that this is all an engineered process to instill confidence in our economy and markets and reinflate a debt bubble. We are using the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency to reinflate OUR bubble....what do you think the rest of the world thinks about that???? It will not last but we are trying to buy time and take all we can from the countries that are willing to let us.

My guess next week is that we will see a pullback ....it is becoming too obvious. But be very cautious P2 will last AT LEAST until late September.

I am going to add a link that I find fascinating... it coincides with what I think could be the EARLIEST P3 would begin.....Will this be it.......don't know but...

http://pragcap.com/guest-contribution-the-great-quantitative-easing-fail

And listen to these lyrics.........it explains all..thnx for this joe....

http://new.music.yahoo.com/videos/--50874801

CAN WE TRUST ANYTHING

Many of us base our views of the economy based upon the reams of statistics that get shoved in our faces on CNBC daily. Those of us that follow this have long doubted the validity of our OWN governments statistics and have found numerous examples of evidence that refute this...the following exerpt and article are worthy of copying and/or bookmarking.....

The Labor Department Friday reported seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls fell by 247,000 in July, the lowest loss in nearly a year and better than economists had expected. Take out the weird math, Williams says, and those payrolls shrunk by more than double that number, perhaps as much as 600,000.

He says the U.S. is in a depression, and though the economy may have hit a “plateau,” it’s not about to rebound, as many stock investors apparently assume. Williams is a bit of renegade among economists, and certainly no household name. But even if you don’t buy his pessimistic views, it’s hard to dismiss his skepticism. The official numbers, he says, are riddled with flawed tweaks

http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/08/jobs-unemployment-layoffs-business-washington-figures.html

Friday, August 7, 2009

IT IS A FACT NOW WATTA YA GONNA DO ABOUT IT

This is the story circulating all over the net this week.......so.................hehe

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/feds-ust-pomo-pyramid-scheme-exposed

JUST ANOTHER DAY AT THE OFFICE

Paint that tape GREEN...feed the sheeple the great news after hours for their evening meal. Yup today was expected in an engineered global "recovery". Fast money is gushing toinight about the new bull......watta scary situation we are in. As investors the old addage of "dont fight the tape" has been taken to a new level.....Look at the USD up ove a point today that is HUGE and oil and gold barely down. Totally contrived. How all of this ends is not gonna be good for the country. As the effort continues to force you into riskier assets I hope you realize that the ponzi game can go on for the remainder of the year but will come to an ugly conclusion eventually.....and again you may not be solvent shorting this market waiting for eventually. Make wise decisisions for yourself and your family. GET RID OF DEBT. As for as doomsday scenarios......you have to make that assessment ....I have no way to say what that entails, but the Kress Cycle says 2012 to 2014.......and that is the law of nature.....anyway hope to have a nice post tomorrow if the PTB allow it....gl gang

CODE BLUE

This essay is well thought out and lays out our disastrous sytem and how desperate we need a complete overhaul....thnx palmerjoe for your brilliant work..

I would like comment on it, though theUnited States has the most expensive healthcare system in the world, 47 millionAmericans have no health insurance. Healthcare is the country's largest economicsector, accounting for over $2 trillion in annual expenditures—four times largerthan national defense. Yet millions cannot afford to take care of their healthneeds, and the prospects are getting worse. During the past eight years,insurance premiums have nearly doubled, resulting in health insurance movingfarther out of reach for millions. Burgeoning medical bills are increasinglyleaving families drowning in debt. Tragically, one-half of all personalbankruptcies are caused by medical bills.> Hospital emergency rooms are stretched beyond capacity, as the number ofemergency visits increased to 120 million a year in 2006, up from 90 million tenyears earlier. At the same time, the number of hospital emergency departmentsdropped by 7%, according to the 2009 National Report Card on the State ofEmergency Medicine. Millions of sick people who cannot afford medical care aredesperately pouring into emergency rooms, which by law cannot turn them away.> The U.S. healthcare system is financed by premiums, the collection of moniespaid for health insurance. At the same time, healthcare providers must bereimbursed for services dispensed. The responsibilities for these are shared byinsurance companies and the government.> The U.S. is the only developed country, except for South Korea, that does notprovide healthcare for all its citizens. What is unique about the U.S. system isthat the private element dominates the public one. For example, the KaiserFoundation reported that 61% of non-elderly Americans in 2006 received insurancethrough their employers; 14% were enrolled in public insurance programs likeMedicaid; and 18% were uninsured. Those over age 65 were usually enrolled inMedicare.
Here is how the system is organized:>> Private Health Insurance:> Employer-sponsored Insurance: The main way Americans receive health insurancecoverage is through their employers. Companies provide this as part of theirbenefits package. These plans are administered by insurance companies bothfor-profit (Aetna, Cigna, State Farm, for example), and not-for-profit (BlueCross/Blue Shield).>> Some large companies choose to "self-insure," that is they pay the healthcosts directly while choosing a third-party (usually an insurer) to administerthe plan. Employer-sponsored plans are financed partly by the employers who paymost of the premium, and partly by employees who pay the remainder.>> Individual Health Insurance: This option covers individuals for whom insuranceis not provided through their employers, those who are self-employed, andretirees. Plans are provided by private insurance companies. Insured individualspay the full health insurance premium.>> Public Health Insurance:> Medicare: This is a program provided by the federal government which coversindividuals aged 65 and older, and disabled individuals as well. It is fundedthrough federal income tax, as well as taxes on employers and employees, andpremium payments by those enrolled. Medicare covers hospital services, physicianservices and prescription drug benefits.>> Medicaid: This program is designed for low-income individuals and those whoare disabled. States are required by law to provide coverage for children, theelderly, the disabled, parents and poor pregnant women. Adults without childrenare not covered, as well as poor individuals who earn too much. A comprehensiveset of benefits is offered by the program, including prescription drugs.However, in spite of this, many of those enrolled still have problems findingproviders that accept Medicaid, because of its low rate of reimbursement.>
> Other Public Systems: These include the Veteran's Administration (VA), whichprovides healthcare for military veterans in VA hospitals and clinics, which aregovernment-owned, and the State Children's Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP),which covers children whose families earn too much to qualify for Medicaid, buttoo little to purchase private health insurance.> Individuals and businesses pay premiums to insurance companies that pay thoseinsured when claims are made. In many cases, insurers make payments directly tothe healthcare providers instead of to the claimants; this depends upon the typeof plan chosen. Both individuals and businesses pay income taxes to thegovernment, which fund programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and othergovernment-funded health insurance programs. The government also uses money fromtaxes to reimburse providers for services to members of government programs.>> The U.S. spends a higher percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) onhealthcare than other industrialized countries.> The reasons for the high cost of care in the U.S. include factors such as therising cost of technology and prescription drugs, and high administrative costsfrom the country's complex multiple payer system. Approximately one-third (31%)of all healthcare dollars are spent on administrative costs. Further, another10% of U.S. expenses are spent on "defensive medicine"—the costly tests bydoctors, afraid of missing anything, who risk being sued for malpractice.>> Another contributing factor is the shift from "non-profit" to "for-profit"healthcare providers, such as the growth of for-profit hospital chains. Also,the large number of uninsured people is significantly contributing to risingcosts because conditions that could have been detected, treated and prevented intheir early stages go undetected and later develop into full-blown crises. Thesethen require more expensive procedures that may even include intensive care oremergency room treatment.>> Due to rising costs, many employers have been forced to cut back or drop theirhealth insurance plans. As the number of uninsured grows, hospitals and otherhealthcare providers must compensate through "cost shifting" at the expense oftaxpayers and higher premiums for those with insurance.>> Even public programs have been affected. The country's aging population isboosting spending on healthcare. It is estimated that one-half of Medicare fundsare being used to support sick people in their last stages of life. Expertsestimate that Medicare funds will be exhausted by 2018.>> Every year, hospitals turn millions of dollars in unpaid bills over tocollection agencies.>> The solution is not going to be an easy one, big insurance and pharmycompanies are structured to operate as a huge profit making machines and theyhave powerful lobby in Washington. It's going to take restructuring of medicalfield as well as insurance and pharmys, easier said than done.

http://healthcare-economist.com/2008/04/23/health-care-around-the-world-switzerland/

Thursday, August 6, 2009

VERRRRY INTERESTING

You are welcome to speculate but it is AWFULLY coincidental ....on the third day for dollar confirmation of a failed 78.....we wind up with this.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND

Also a very nice read...
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

SO THEY ARE LYING?

I have the same discussion more and more with various people that are usually peripherally invoved in our economy. And it usually goes like this...so what we are being told now about all the green shoots and improvements in stock prices aren't really true. How do you answer this in a brief period of time without talking like you have just drank a triple shot tall mocha. Usually I skip around and try to hit a fiew salient facts and conclude by citing the law of Nature and the 120 year Kress cycle showing 2012-2014 as a key time period. As most of you are aware that read regularly we awaken every morning to a well orchestrated effort to buy our country and the world TIME. They are buying TIME. I am probablly less inclined to get my blood pressure up now over the absurd manipulations anymore just because I know what is on our horizon and whatever they do now will not avert the inevitable. So what the hey just pay attention and position yourself for the future...enjoy each day and try to help your family. As time goes by accumulate physical gold and all the necessities. gl gang lets see how the pits go and here is a link along the lines of my post.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/154024-why-another-stock-market-collapse-could-be-imminent?source=article_lb_author

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

THE BAIT IS BEING SET

The Boyz are preparing to ensnare more retail shorts ....the only question is when and how.....Do not try to anticipate for that will get you slaughtered...this is P2 and long is the trend.. PERIOD. I have let my bias at times give me a couple of headaches in this run....but live and learn.....Watch the dollar we are headed to hell here . Unless they can squeeze the dollar tomorrow then that game is over.....sure there will be some squeeze in P3 but it will not save us from stagflation..I believe we are doomed to a horrible rise in essential goods and services. Our country is at risk. This will be the price we pay for reinflating a Ponzi scheme. gl gang.....

AND YOU THINK THIS IS THE PULLBACK

Might be a little breather but don't get agressive with your shorts.....this too shall pass.....they will continue to hand the retailers their heads shorting this market. I will admit a small dto dug zsl to hedge my miners and ung..but that is IT.....no big bets majority cash...How about those poor girls getting released by Clinton Gore......glad they are safe.. But they were NOT journalist ......you guess the rest....anyway if you think they were ....I gotsa a nice house on a golf course to sell ya. Anyway makes nice headlines for feelgood. I prefer to look at reality and reality dictates this is a global pump ......coordinated by all central banks and governments..........for now...gl gang

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

TODAYS ACTION

The market is tired .......GS has expended an enormous ammount of effort here and soon will drag in some more shorts for the meat grinder......expect a nice pull back for a few days..but the Thursday and Friday numbers http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html pose a conundrum for me. If we do not get a sell off before then I have to assume these numbers are going to be benign and GS is gonna sell the news then....If we get a sell off now then expect a squeeze Friday.....doesn't matter much to me.....the bigger play will be the top of this climb and that is the end of P2.....probably it will be the fibinacci number 61.8 which correlates with 1228....as the top of P2. Blame the number on Joe he is the calculator.....hehe sorry joe...I am the one picking the higher 61 over 50 or 32......anyway fibs are solid and you can make your own guess......timeline is up for grabs but I say Jan....no solid there but they will extend this to the maximum......worked all night so I apologize for my lack of attentiveness to blog but I am mostly cash and hedged well here. OBTW where is that hurricane still have a UNG core. Comeon Mother Nature....lets get some excitement.....(no casualties pleeeeze)

WILL THE STARS ALLIGN

Patiently I wait for may leetle pullback on gold maybe this is it coming.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.InMg0mu3F8

Monday, August 3, 2009

ANOTHER BULL CHARGE

If anyone wondered what the decline of our economy would look like a year ago at this point.......now you know.....Declarations continue to abound daily the bottom is in as it did a year ago. Volatility is gone. Now Government Sachs has control of the market. A political necessity in Obamas eyes.... I will not argue that , but I do not agree with that approach. Irregardless I am not a right wing idealogue so let them play their politics......the outcome will be the same. 2012 to 2014.........slaughter.......between then and now.......lotsa money to make in a treacherous market.......I think I like it......heheheh......have fun gang and wear your rubber boots.....its deep.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

IN LIVING COLOR

Better bookmark this monster........thnx joe

http://www.federalbudget.com/

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED

Now we are going to have to slap you.......if that doesn't work. Then when you stop bleeding from the thousand cuts we are going to inflict.....you will not have to worry any longer.....These are the words that the Chinese probably should have told Geithner last month...now listen to this next blurb......it is going to be THE story we have to watch as this battle plays out now...

MONETIZATION BACKFIRE
Talk is everywhere one turns that the USGovt has little recourse but to print money and cover their debts. Such moves shift the risk from the USTreasury Bond to the USDollar in clear fashion. The Chinese Govt and Bank officials have been extremely vocal in the last few months, especially in the last few weeks. They abhor and are angry at both the rising USGovt deficits and the rising risk from direct monetization of those deficits in debt issuance. One could fill an entire page with warnings by the Chinese against American profligacy, reckless policy, and more. Every week contains major news wire stories, which do not receive proper attention in the US financial press. The Chinese are noticing even more dangerous developments, such as ineffective official stimulus, unproductive rescue of dead banks, endless credit derivative covered costs (AIG and Fannie Mae), entirely new programs with staggering price tags (health care), refused disclosure of disbursed Congressional funds, and tremendous waste, all of which not only result in gargantuan government deficits, but add risk to the USDollar from a failure standpoint. The criminal angle is increasingly being discussed in the open. Goldman Sachs has exposure from Ultimate Insider Trading software tools that were stolen, now being torn apart in London and Germany for evidence discovery. Perhaps worse, the US Federal Reserve is under challenge by the US Congress (in charge of its contract) for disclosure and audit that could eventually reach the US Supreme Court.

The Chinese are in town to meet with the USGovt officials on continued debt support. The public will surely NOT be told what is discussed. One informed contact wrote this morning that the US lies as a terminal patient in the Intensive Care Ward, and seeks a death with dignity from its Chinese creditor doctors. The challenge to China is to protect its main core of US$-based reserves, and to protect future investments. Incremental commitments must come with new more concrete protective measures. The financial markets are NOT factoring this in! They seem to operate on a ‘Business as Usual’ assumption that is dying rapidly.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1248898104.php

Saturday, August 1, 2009

CLIFF DROKE BRAIN TRAIN

Just to reinforce how manipulation and the market work.. read and we will have a test....

http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/jul2009/072709/072709.html

LAUNDERING THE US DOLLAR

Good essay from Joe

There has been much concern as of late about the decline of the U.S. Dollar.Some believe that China, fearful of the recent massive increase in the U.S.deficit is dumping the U.S. Dollar and will cause the Dollar to crash. Othersbelieves that China is trapped into supporting the U.S. Dollar in order to keepit's own currency, the yuan, cheap and it's exports competitive since China hasno choice but to keep buying the long-term bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury inorder to prop-up the dollar. There is also the third camp which believes Chinaisn't dumping the dollar or dollar assets, it is recycling the money from saleof long-term bonds and parking it into short-term U.S. Treasury notes. This is aconcern, because these notes are easier for China to dump should stagflationpick up in the U.S. China has been exchanging one dollar-denominated asset foranother selling the debt of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae andFreddie Mac in a hurry to buy Treasuries. While this has been clear for months,China is also trading long-term Treasuries for short-term notes, highlightingBeijing's concerns that stagflation will erode the dollar's value in the longrun as America amasses record debt.China is seeking to change the ways that it sterilizes the surplus of dollarsthat it receives from the U.S. Instead of the Chinese government to buying upexcess dollars, and investing them in U.S. Treasuries and the bonds , they area) Encouraging private Chinese companies to use dollars to make investments(thus recycling the dollars) and b) Using the dollars to stockpile commodities,such as iron ore, crude oil and grain.The bottom line to all of this is that China is worried about stagflation in theU.S. and the impact that stagflation would have on China's holdings of long-termU.S. bonds. While China still seems committed to the dollar peg, China isdiversifying it's foreign exchange reserves by using it's surplus dollars topurchase real assets that are stagflation resistant such as commodities andcapital investments. As far as implications for U.S., stagflation is devastingto long-term bonds. stagflation makes 10 year U.S. Treasuries not so safeanymore. As far as investments one should diversify into investments that areresistant to stagflation if scenario comes to frution. These include Gold &silver stocks.