Saturday, October 31, 2009

THE DIE IS CAST (not dye)

Next 2 to 4 weeks are your major entry buys (or adds in my case) to the miners. Yes if the market corrects or even if P3 has begun the miners will take some hits..BUT...technically we may be very close to... or at the miners corrective bottom.

I posted a few weeks ago that gold probably had 1000 as support established. It appears that this will hold. The action Friday with miners rebounding as the market hit lows was telling.

Important technicals are signalling buy also RSI STOCHS. hitting buy signals. Rather than go all in..START accumulation and live with your decision. SSRI SLW AUY GORO TLR GG ABX. You choose. Biggest pops will most likely be SSRI SLW.

Remember you can make a lot of money trading these also. You should have more comfort holding positions if your gap trade moves against you......THAT IS INVALUABLE when trading. Think about that. You KNOW your longer term position is safe. This is the time so lets begin.

I am including this link sent to me from Joe and it confirms most of the above post in some detail and you do your own do diligence. GL

addendum..........correction biggest pops TLR and GORO but they have more risk..upside is 2000%.....but riskier

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1256925840.php

Friday, October 30, 2009

COMPLETE AND UTTERLY DEAD MARKET

If a market doctor were called in to examine the patient he would demand an EEG. Even though the market has a weak pulse and is on a ventilator the brain waves indicate death.

This is reaching a point where I expect the CNBC pumptards to be unable to keep a straight face any longer talking about our Zombie financial system.

Earlier today Charles Gasbagrino openly criticized Goldman and Blankfein. He then requested asylum in another country under the witness protection program. Even Charlie has had it, and he used to defend the schmucks.

As QE and monetization continue and make no mistake it will.......the ramifications of it will now begin to take hold. Without action all essential goods will begin a steady upward movement. As the economy weakens.. these precious goods will begin strangling the helpless consumer like a python.

This is it. This is our last reasonably normal Christmas. The pain will steadily worsen over the coming year as this failed economic policy begins to have its effect.

Blame yourselves for allowing complacency and greed to be used as an excuse for allowing the politicians and bankers to run wild. For we are all guilty.

Start buying the miners now and average in over the next 5 weeks.....its over. I agree with the following analysis...to hell with the dollar ....its toast. Even if they strengthen it...it is meaningless.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1256886000.php

Thursday, October 29, 2009

THURSDAY MASSACRE

Now we know the answer to yesterdays's post......if you are swing trader overloaded short well....gl Now you have to make a decision and the algo killing machine has you. Wrong move and it gets brutal.

This market will eventually take all of our money unless we invest very carefully. Right now I favor more short side, but as Joe said today....this could be the correction. Its possible. Now do we go to the 61.8 fib over 1200? I don't know but I added AUY and SSRI yesterday. Already traded some today. But have a core if we do.

My advice remains the same. Watch don't get in this water. They are taking no prisoners. LCC may be a buy here but prepare to trade it. It has not had its winter run but that is no guarantee..

BTW look at SGY today vs UNG......OMG.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

MARKET SIGNALING DOOM

But for whom? Shorts or Long. Unless you are trading this I suggest you stay on the sidelines for the buy on the long side. And I am wanting you to watch closely the miners......This is your list and you watch these. SSRI, AUY, SLW, GG, GORO, TLR. For the risk takers......LCC is getting very close to a nice squeeze trade...with target of 5 near term....ultimately I think it will hit 7or 8

I would rather play SGY than UNG but I still hold UNG. I closed all shorts today and full expect the slimeballs to gap down in AM....just watch. Doesn't matter.....look at some of the take downs today. As the dollar strengthens ...it should get worse (or better depending if you have cash).

Expect extreme doom and gloom to be long trades, and 1040 should give you a trade tomorrow. My suggestion is be very careful here on the long side....but remember if you get stuck on the miners.......long term whether we are in P3 or heading to 1250 it won't matter in the long run.

This is what Cliff Droke predicted and we most likely will see 8 to 12%. Don't be anxious to buy yet. Although I am trying to trade some miners for tomorrow...

This is the spot you have been waiting for so be patient. Maybe a week. and start buying.

WACKY WEDNESDAY

Looks like this morning the triangle is playing out with no tip of the hand. Everything is relatively flat. Market is completely sick...held up until GDP numbers and GS just said they would be 2.7%. So my guess is that will be close.

Expect some nice trades today if you are inclined to gamble. Watch the transports ......bounce today. LCC looks like a trade.

Have fun and get away from this market until the hand is tipped. Right now the dollar is so sick it may not even bounce until 70. Watta complete farce.

England is breaking up the banks. Guess they don't have the world's reserve currency.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

HIGH WIRE ACT CONTINUES

"Do you think that commodity prices are being manipulated by speculators?" Bob Pissonme asked a guest this morning. I would like to take a shot at answering that since this is paramount to you as investors (and take your best shot if you wish). Well Bob....May I call you Bob? Thank you. ...... Commodities are not priced now in the true sense of a demand side equation. We are the World's reserve currency Bob and Bob pardon my French but we are using that position to F$%k our trading partners and they KNOW it.

They could buy gold and switch to a gold backed reserve currency or form swap agreements with their trading partners(and they are). But due to the economies of scale they are limited on the gold as single hedge on the dollar. So inevitably they are incorporating an entire basket of strategies while reinflate our banking bubble. While we throw more dollars into a black hole of financila derivatives estimated to be over 1 Quadrillion (wrap your arms around that number) I will give you a hint...if you take one hundred dollar bills and stack then on top of each other they would go to the moon and halfway back....

Nooo ...China is buying hard commodities and farmland....They are looking down the road 10 and 20 years to the future and their eventual world dominance. They are educating engineers instead of bankers. They are training skilled workers. We are training fast food employees , wal-mart checkers and hospital workers. When you ask the question HOW COULD GAS go to 5 dollars a gallon next year in a recession.......just remember what happens when you have the worlds reserve currency and are monetizing the debt with it. You are creating STAGFLATION. There is NOTHING good about it. Your economy is dying and the cost of essential goods and services continue to climb.

This reminds me of a show on Bravo last night. A reality show of young L.A. entrepeneaurs (realitors) that began 2 years ago. Now the show is devolving into a survival mode with the protaganists fighting for commissions on luxury home monthly rentals. It also had late developers trying to sell homes for 10 million in a no bid market. It was surreal to think that our country was still trying to bankroll all of this insanity on the backs of the American taxpayer in the name of saving the economy.

We should be overhauling our education system completely and making a 20 year strategy for bringing in engineers, teaches , scientists, skilled labor.

We will most likely not do any long term planning. Our political system is controlled completely by lobbyist with only their masters self interests. gl gang

Monday, October 26, 2009

PANIC

Fear ran rampant through the market today. Maria Bootyroma and Bob Pissonmee locked in an embrace and revealed as the meltdown progressed that they were indeed lovers. Dennis Kneale became outraged with their open display of affection and immediately professed his love for Pissonmee. As today's meltdown progressed there were strange events throughout the trading pits. Art Cashin pulled out a bottle of single malt scotch and swilled it on air singing "Irish eyes".

Most of us meanwhile sat back and wondered when GS was going to take back the punchbowl from the shorts. And of course after their Bull trap this morning ..we knew they would. But they didn't.

They kept the dollar strong and beat the bulls into submission, but no one cared. The market closed with nary a whimper. So what? We all know its a fraud. We all know that GS is going to manipulate this "ONE TRADER ONLY" market.

So as usual the question has to be if true then what is their next move. I have been trading SH and DTO. But only those of you that are in to trading should be doing this. The game is to buy the miners on the dollar strengthening move . Patience is a virtue here. Greed is your enemy. Be careful as GS distributes here.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

BREAKING NEWS: CONSUMER BACK

One of my partners informed me that her credit card had its rate raised to 33 % and another partner present said his had too. The first partner is a "I got mine now you get yours" individual. But it struck me when she said ...how are people going to grow the economy with these credit rates? I thought that was the most intelligent comment she had made about economics in a long time.

So from a practical stand-point she has even figured out one of the many insurmountable issues confronting the current Keynesian policy to re-inflate the bubble. We have a 70% GDP consumer based economy. GOOD GRIEF even those of you that arent economist must be able to see THAT problem. We have turned our country into the veritable "Pigs at the Trough" economy. Think about it. No manufacturing to rebound as we reduce manufacturing inventories like past recessions in the 60s 70s 80s....because THERE IS NO MANUFACTURING. Remember we sent it all overseas. We make I-Pods now. Not really they are outsourced too.

Yes even my economic illiterate partner is asking questions now. Albeit because Obama is president and she has a bias against Obama. She certainly didn't ask these questions when GW was wrecking the balance sheets. So NOW we have a problem. Really? NOW? Cmon. Do you really think that this mess is NOW. This mess is decades in the making and WE allowed it. You and I. Now we have to make preparations for the tsunami . Look ahead. NO attempts are to be made leveraging ANYTHING now in anticipation of better days soon. Get your cards paid off. Get your food stores built up. Dried beans are choice one.

Now is an excellent time to begin looking at self sustaining solar or wind if you do not live in a toatlly urban environ.

Power will soar in cost and outages are coming. Sorry but it must be anticipated. Besides it is very fulfilling to generate your own power.

Stock market is a crapshoot now.. I have warned you....look for pullback to buy miners. Invest in bullion coins. Listen to the video below. He is right but note the tone of his voice. He is a "right" but "biatch slapped bull". So be patient and wait until the market gives you your buy..

Walk around your grounds and look for security weaknesses. Home entries are now happening at accelerated rates in my area. Am I propagating a "fear trade". I don't think so but wish that were true.

MOST OF ALL.....Show strength, leadership, calm, resolve, guidance, and LOVE to your family and your friends. Everyone will need your help more than ever. gl gang

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAd7sHR1WoE&feature=player_embedded

Must read article on dollar gold..........must must must......

http://seekingalpha.com/article/168707-crude-oil-and-gold-not-worth-worrying-over?source=feed

Saturday, October 24, 2009

BUDDY CAN YA SPARE A DOLLAR

What does it mean when you say the dollar is being devalued? What is a "devalued dollar mean to YOU". Well that depends on the definition of YOU. Whether you are an exporting corporate entity, small business, retired fixed income guy, etc.

Dollar is reserve currency
Since no currency is fully backed by gold or silver, the US dollar is the world reserve currency. This decision was the result of the Bretton Wood agreement signed after World War II and means that the various nations' central banks, which create money for the countries, must have their currency backed by the US dollar. In short, these central banks must hold US dollars and Treasury instruments.
In other words, for over the last 50+ years the US dollar has served the same purpose as gold & silver in backing the currency. This arrangement is good as long as the dollar holds its value.
The dollar is a fiat currency. Meaning, it has no precious metals backing it and is accepted by faith. The only currency that has maintained intrinsic value for the last 5,000 years is gold and silver.

For instance on Bloomberg today our "trading partner" China (See vig) was discussed as major contributor to the Dry Bulk sector and its rise this year. The discussion centered around Chinas importation of over 65 million tons of steel in September even though steel prices are depressed. Well that is because of what we are doing to the dollar. China is looking years down the road as we monetize our debt. They have had it with any more purchasing of our long term debt (dead dollar) and are instead buying "things of value" such as iron ore and gold.

We are draining our wealth. Monetizing our debt. Debt incurred as we and our country went on a drunken spending binge over the past 30 years. Yes we came out of the malaise of the 70s and instead of using the financial house that had been put back into order by Volke ...we turned it eventually into a casino of leverage (see 100:1 leverage).

We evolved from a manufacturing based economy into a consumer based economy and BRAGGED ABOUT IT on shows like CNBC. Are YOU KIDDIN ME. Over 70% of our GDP is consumer based. Old Navy, Tiffany, Apple, Hospitals, Insurance cos. became our growth drivers as we continued down our drunken binge of spending with our guardians of our country (see whore mongering pig sucking politicians) helped themselves to the lobbyists trough.

While we watched reality TV and sucked down big macs, until our populace had to widen the sidewalks in our major cities so that two average fat ass americans could pass each other, wallstreet picked your wallet. Don't bitch. Its their job. Its human nature. Its greed. You and I let it happen. We preferred to believe that you can have something for nothing. That you can fight two wars without increased taxes.......without a draft.......without casualties.....without world repercussions. You knew better. But you let yourself believe the lies. Now nature is calling her notes due. You WILL PAY. It may not be totally predictable in the timeline but be assurred we will pay.

Before true deflation in 2012 we will see bread 5,10 20 dollars/loaf, gas 6,8 10 dollars/gallon. Utility bills sky high. Power outtages. It will be nature cleaning out our excesses. As Joe loves to pound me on the head now with........buy canned foods, non perishables now......stock up two years supply ....now.......gl gang....

from comments below...

http://www.beginnermoneyinvesting.com/html/the_importance_of_a_gold_backe.htm

Friday, October 23, 2009

CHRISTMAS CANCELLED

It was announced today that Mall Owners have announced that the previously mentioned holiday in honor of conspicuous consumption (previously a religous holiday along with hanukkah) has been cancelled.

The Mall Owners stated that gas prices may be to blame, but they couldn't rule out the possibility that the 10% unemployment rate and overall lack of consumer confidence played a role. One member agreed to speak off the record and stated that initially they had been "guaranteed" a strong christmas by the Presidents Working Group (see PPT) but that after a lengthy conference call this morning they were notified there had been a sudden change in the PPT strategy.

When pressed the PPT made a vague reference to a small OTC derivatives issue that required some further depression of the dollar to keep the dollar carry trade afloat. When attempts to clarify this were made, the PPT spokesperson became more agitated and replied that and I am paraphrasing now.....if that biatch Brooksley Born had kept her mouth shut we would not be in this mess now and our financial markets would have enough capital to sustain us for one more christmas.

Obviously several of the participants at the conference call then wanted to know if that meant that Easter would have to be cancelled. The PPT spokesperson laughed and said of course Easter would be intact. He stated he knew that was safe and the birth of the Easter Bunny would be still honored. :-)

Thursday, October 22, 2009

LIL CHOP SHOP OF HORRORS

You were warned. Damn wish I had listened. Well if you don't believe in the algo killing machine now maybe your ass does. I tried SH position today... not doing well. I will be able to hold on its not leveraged.

Risk reward short term still favors shorts but it could be rough. The dollar move gave me no hint what tomorrow will be. But they are keeping it above 75.

Pattern still looks like distribution but that can kill a short position. They know that.

Don't pay attention to the news here. It is only noise at this point . The markets direction is predetermined.

Maintain discipline and remember this requires patience. I have a small AUY core and small TLR. The rest is in LCC and SH mostly.......and CASH. GL expect green push in AM....sorry if you are short.

I COULD HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE

That was Arthur Levitt's quote ten years after Brooksley Born was destroyed as the D.C. regulator trying to put a stop to OTC derivatives fraud. Levitt is referring to his complicity in the Greenspan, Rubin, Summers mission to prevent Born from regulating the derivatives that were very much responsible for bringing our country to its knees. By the way Levitt has elevated himself in my book with his revelation here and Levitt almost cried near the end of this..... remarkable.

Stiglitz also comments in this piece on the involvement of the "Presidents Working Group" and the powere they wielded during this critical time period and how the repercussions of their actions would later prove to be critical in the collapse of our entire financial system.

As the existence of the "Presidents Working Group" was debated on the SKF board last year and occaisionally debated on CNBC (usually PPT naysayers were ridiculed), it is openly an accurately discussed in this piece by the actual participants.

As we wind our way through this evolving crisis I wonder how much information has to come out like this before real reform occurs. I fear that ONLY the law of nature will ultimately drive real reform . With that in mind I change none of my forecasts and wish all of you the best.

Read this brief excerpt and by all means listen to this video .....its simply beyond comprehension.


In The Warning, veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk unearths the hidden history of the nation's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the center of it all he finds Brooksley Born, who speaks for the first time on television about her failed campaign to regulate the secretive, multitrillion-dollar derivatives market whose crash helped trigger the financial collapse in the fall of 2008.
"I didn't know Brooksley Born," says former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, a member of President Clinton's powerful Working Group on Financial Markets. "I was told that she was irascible, difficult, stubborn, unreasonable." Levitt explains how the other principals of the Working Group -- former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin -- convinced him that Born's attempt to regulate the risky derivatives market could lead to financial turmoil, a conclusion he now believes was "clearly a mistake."
Born's battle behind closed doors was epic, Kirk finds. The members of the President's Working Group vehemently opposed regulation -- especially when proposed by a Washington outsider like Born.
"I walk into Brooksley's office one day; the blood has drained from her face," says Michael Greenberger, a former top official at the CFTC who worked closely with Born. "She's hanging up the telephone; she says to me: 'That was [former Assistant Treasury Secretary] Larry Summers. He says, "You're going to cause the worst financial crisis since the end of World War II."... [He says he has] 13 bankers in his office who informed him of this. Stop, right away. No more.'"
Greenspan, Rubin and Summers ultimately prevailed on Congress to stop Born and limit future regulation of derivatives. "Born faced a formidable struggle pushing for regulation at a time when the stock market was booming," Kirk says. "Alan Greenspan was the maestro, and both parties in Washington were united in a belief that the markets would take care of themselves."
Now, with many of the same men who shut down Born in key positions in the Obama administration, The Warning reveals the complicated politics that led to this crisis and what it may say about current attempts to prevent the next one.
"It'll happen again if we don't take the appropriate steps," Born warns. "There will be significant financial downturns and disasters attributed to this regulatory gap over and over until we learn from experience."

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/view/

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

MURDER'S ROW

This is why I issued the stop trading and watch recommendation. Its an algo slaughterhous. HFTs beating the hell out of every little trader. If you don't believe me look at today. Nothing but stop shopping. This effort may go on for days. By the time they're through with you ...your account will be shredded.

Look at oil. DTO looks like Custer's last stand. I know. I still have a small position and even small is slaughter. If oil closes over 80 then watch out 85.....

It is really unconscionable with the real pain the average joe (sorry joe) is experiencing to ramp oil to this level. But what the hay. Its bonus time and wolves are hungry.

Watch gold and dollar here. If dollar stays down at close below 75 its over.

Enjoy this year. Its the end of the facade. Start preparing. Get your own fiscal houses in order. Have dry food...rice ...beans ....beans are great dry protein sources. It appears that Immreds accelerated hell is approaching. Either dollar strengthens or the prices of essential start moving up hard. Check your gas prices tonight. You think the consumer can handle this? No way.

Someone asked me about the Fed.......The game they are playiing is a virtual high wire act over a pond full of hungry crocodiles. The information they have is way beyond what we have available. I hope their road is the correct choice for all of our sakes. If I were religious I would say my prayers are with them. We are headed into a meat grinder as an economy and as a country. You will find out soon what you are made out of. Do you have the fortitude to lead your family through this. Can you serve as the example of strength and courage that will keep the wolves of fear at bay in their lives. In other words YOU are the one that has to step up for your family during the coming tsunami. YOU take the heat. And YOU give them the guidance. Start now by explaining why conservation and excess is important for our ecology. That is much better than creating more fear by saying "we gotta save our dollars ...we are about to go broke". GL gang

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

WHAT MAKES THE MADNESS STOP

The Law of Nature. What goes up must come down. Gravity. OR....For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. These are the laws of nature that you cannot violate. They are stone. Granite.....no....diamond. When you "attempt" to violate these laws there is hell to pay.

Bernanke knows this. He is NOT stupid. I could be wrong but I suspect he is extremely bright. Perhaps brilliant. Just a guess based on what I have seen and heard. What he says publicly is all controlled. In reality the amount of "honest" data he has on the economy at his disposal on a real time basis is staggering. He knows the numbers are fudged. Hell ...he helps to fudge them. But make no mistake .....he knows fully what is coming.

For those of us that are not economist and not privy to accurate economic data we are left to fend for ourselves and to make assumptions based on "best information".

What is this "best information"? We know we just came through a near death economic cataclysmic meltdown. "On the verge of the Abyss" as stated so many times I have lost count. We know that at least 24 Trillion has been placed as a back stop to keep the financial system afloat. Note I said "afloat". They are not lending. They are zombies that Bernake hopes will somehow become functional. The jury is still out.

What else? The dollar and quantitative easing continue to raise our markets, but cannot stop the slide in housing. Wasn't housing our main issue last year to restore the banks. Anyway that really is not my point. Look around you and look at the economy. In many areas its in depression already. And that is after the 800billion stimulus. NO jobs being created. And as long as QE and money printing continues the dollar will slide.

This is where is gets interesting. This is the "rock and a hard place". This is where the rubber meats the road. Alas this is where the "law of nature" will take over. The law of nature does not operate on a schedule it only takes over when it HAS to resolve an imbalance.

WHAT does nature HAVE to resolve. It will intervene for certain if QE and fiat printing pushes the cost of commodities to the breaking point....it will step in and stop the rise of oil. Demand will plummet. A fragile economy on life support will implode with oil sustained at 90 plus dollars or worse 100 dollars a barrel. Many people smarter than I think as the economy worsens in 2011 and the last gasp attempts at QE and printing occur oil may peak at 200/bl. We will see. But for certain the market will only be continueing its slide into oblivion if this occurs.

So be aware there are limits to what can be accomplished with printing. I fully expect all manner of limits to be tested. I will expect a 61.8 fib test around end of December or the first of January. Either way it will fail to save us. I hope I am wrong and you can all laugh next year as we grow SnP earnings all the way to Oz. But I am not in Kansas anymore. And Bernanke never was. gl

THE KRESS MASTER SPEAKS

Last nights commentary on Cliffs interview with Bud Kress prompted me to revisit this in this thread. After talking to Joe at length on this topic it becomes more clear that to exceed the 61.8 fib on the market at 1250 will be at a cost so dear that more than likely all hell would break loose politically.

The dollar would be pushed at least to 69-70 level and oil would be 100/bl. Gas over 3 dollars a gallon would be pushing a fragile economy back into the dark ages. Kress calculations use a variety of models including mathematical , political, fed intervention to determine their outcome. I am not an expert in Kress. That is laughable. But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last nite.

Kress has had a remarkable predictive ability over its lifespan and I will leave it at that. Droke is a cycle master and I will leave predicting to Droke (and Joe).

I possess some backwoods aptitude to see overall market machinations but NOTHING as detailed as the above mentioned.

Q: Getting back to the stock market, you're looking for a final cyclical bull market before the last of your long-term cycles peaks next year, correct? What is the significance of 2009 in the cyclical scheme of things? Could the coming cyclical bull market be of the "blow off" variety?
Kress: It's a recovery rally bear market in the economic winter scheme of things and the 2009 high will be significantly lower than the 1999 high. This will be discussed in detail in Special Edition 7 to be forthcoming in the next several months. A maximum upside target of 1,200-1,250 in the S&P 500 is not to be exceeded. I refer to the 1999-2000 high as the terminal high not to be equaled for several decades. The 2009 high will be the recovery high not to be exceeded for a decade or so. While referring to this as a recovery cyclical mini bull market it might also be referred to as an interim advance in an ongoing long-term bear market. Such occurrences can be powerful but equally deceptive.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/droke012609.html

Monday, October 19, 2009

THE 50 FIB

BaBaBoom. Like a knife through butta..... 1120 ..... And you doubted their ability....I didn't.....hehehe. Orchestrated you ask? But of course. Waaaaaaa. Wish I had more confidence in my own disbelief number. Anyway its all water under the bridge unless you think this is the top. It "aint". So sorry.

Do we finally get a short trade here ......maybe. But I am just like GS wants you......bruised, battered, and scared shitless to short. So be my guest. Feel free to short at will. But not me...Ihave a small ammount of SH and Qid....but more of a hedge.

Nope I prefer to try and scalp a little here on gap spots. Real shorting .......I have to see real dollar strengthening move or an intraday blowoff ......say ......tomorrow morning ......I might try....on the other hand they may try their usual gap down move in the morning but with the AAPl and TXN it doesn't look like a gap down right now.

Watch LCC.....if they start moving us down then dollar will strengthen and oil will move down.....play LCC for that seasonal move.

CVM.....a pos here so hold tight maybe a small gap trade now. Worth a try. I will expect volume to start deteriorating in this play........so becareful. It moves on news

AUY trade on gaps here . I hold small core still . Traded it today. I feel safe if I get caught long term.

I maintain the UBER Bear call. It means DANGER DANGER. This is extremely difficult market to be holding long in. AND a very dangerous market to be heavy short. Although you can trade both directions if you are agile and KNOW what stocks you are trading. Right now most market participants need to be nimble and waiting on the sidelines ...If you want to play short with etfs try the safe ones like SH .......its decay is not debilitating. Anyway I still maintain we ultimately will reach the 61.8 fib .....which is over 1200. soooooooo....be cautious....that may not be achieved for a few months.....this market really needs a pullback....its a farce and mom and pops are even getting sick of it.

This is a great read too on gold.......luv it.....
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1255885200.php

MARKET REMAINS IN UPTREND

Keep playing the gaps then its still on til it aint. I played my safety trigger AUY. Not a big movement but enough. Joe caught CVM gap. You can make money. I don't like CVM here except for gap play....but I still have small core. TLR is strong today. Watch for grind to the 50fib. But I will reiterate my UBER BEAR CALL. Unless you are locked on and playing with fun money then don't trade. Hold the cash and keep averaging into bullion coins. Update at market close. OBTW Bernanke will say NOTHING.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

DOW 10,000 ITS MEANING

This week was historic for me. But not for the above headline. I have a friend that is barely treading water with a 6 million dollar nut to crack. He is a builder and is sinking fast. He lived large and is going to go out like a candle in a storm. Another friend has to borrow a significant ammount to reopen his seasonal business next year and add to a 1 million nut. Sorry Dick but you aren't gonna have an easy time cuttin that nut. The banks took over another aquaintances 40 million dollar entertainment complex here........He is toast.

Watching the destruction of businesses here for over a year now is surreal. All was predictable but watching it just doesn't seem to do it justice. There is a large 5 lane road through this tourist area and now over 40% of the businesses for a 3 mile stretch are either out of business , closed, or sold now since beginning of 2008. They are through and will not be coming back for a long time unless this economy makes the comeback of a millenium.

And now we get back to the headline......Dow 10,000..........In my opinion this was vital for the administration to paint. Goldman did their job. I am NOT going to argue whether this is the right strategy for our country or not. You can find plenty of blogs discussing this. In fact unless I have a plan that I can offer then forget it .....I don't criticize here. (maybe a little we will see)

We are investing and the reason I am posting this ...it effects your strategy. YOU have to understand the endgame. THE ENDGAME is restoring investor and consumer CONfidence in our economy. They have to overcome the sentiment. They have to overcome these blogs (like this one) that are counter to the positive spin.

Unfortunately I believe they are taking the wrong tact. Maybe lying will work. It has for several decades now. Back to investing. As the reinflatiion play continues and it will.... you cannot expect us to fall into true overall deflation without a serious does of stagflation first. YOU cannot expect this market to go straight to hell like many are predicting. They are going to manipulate this BEAR of bears all the way to hell. So you have to be VERY unbiased here......you have to be apolitical. Many of you are republicans with an intense dislike of Obama. You better think twice about that . Ask yourself is that bias making you more bearish. If it is then get rid of it. It is what it is.

Focus on the market. The market is Goldman. Ask yourself the more important questions like this. When are they going to strengthen the dollar and squeeze the shorts? OR.....what is the end game on oil ......if they are the controller of all .....then do you believe they are going to let oil stay high very long. Do you really think they can pay out 124billion in bonuses this year with oil at 80 dollars a barrel?? Maybe I am wrong. Maybe they feel the masses will accept it. Maybe they think the administration will accept it.

Ask yourself how GS distributes their shares and keeps the market in the investor CONfidence zone that they are have been given the keys to the castle to create. We know they aren't buy and hold. Its not their money anyway but they don't want these shares at this price. Soooo then what is next . Ask yourself those questions. Develop your strategies based on understanding these concepts.

Now once you understand this your next step is to factor in the DOLLAR question ooooooboy.gl

heres a nice read on some of this
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/msm-reporting-as-propaganda-no-one-minds-our-new-financial-lords-and-masters-edition.html

GORO NEARING PRODUCTION

Quick look at this link this morning to juice your coffee......ummmmmm.... Goro is a low cost producer that will come on line in Dec 2009. Bottom line is it should move. Do your own Due dilligence. and take your chances.....

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1255875004.php

Saturday, October 17, 2009

SWINE FLU UPDATE

Eleven more children died this week from H1N1. The virus is spreading at an unprecedented rate for this time of the year. Most cases I am seeing are relatively mild. Some have been hospitalized.

The emergency rooms are starting to fill up with cases and it is just beginning. Stay away from the emergency rooms.

Recommendations for the vaccine remain the same: do your own due diligence. I am squarely on the fence on this unless you have an underlying medical condition or pregancy...in those cases YOU MUST.

So far research is finding some data on this that makes me very uncomfortable that resortment is potentially still an 800 lb gorilla and could even come through as the grim reaper by spring. In english...this virus could pick up a DNA hiker from another country and be on your doorstep late this year or next taking you to meet your maker.

I have also been informed that this virus has some earmarks in its composition that leads researchers to speculate that yes..........it may have been engineered.......imagine that (no links today).

Lastly I am not using tamiflu much with it nor does the CDC recommend it except under only set circumstances. Its not that effective anyway IMO. so gl stay safe
http://www.ajc.com/health/content/shared-auto/healthnews/cdc-/632095.html

THE PETER PRINCIPLE ON STEROIDS

This breathtaking condemnation of wallstreet by Eliot Spitzer last night just floored me. I was shocked by how simple and straight forward his indictment is of wallstreet and our current state of affairs.

He essentially confirms everything we have talked about as a conspiracy and calls this mess the Peter principle on steroids......watch this its amazing....on the run today ....enjoy. This is NOT the Spitzer interview earlier in the week....MUCH BETTER

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp/33352277#33352277

Friday, October 16, 2009

TRADING THE BEAR OF ALL BEARS

After lunch today with one of my good friends, I felt compelled to comment to many of you tonight. Like most of you that probably read this blog my friend does not take my advice completely. And to thank God. He missed the SRS debacle completely. But when I gave my uber bear call and advised all to cease trading over a month ago. He (and I) persisted.

He went all in on DTO and is getting his ass handed to him. He looked hagard, depressed, a beaten man. I asked him if he had slept and he replied NO...He had been awake since 3 am watching bloomberg and oil futures. Dave is a nice guy .....works hard ....and has a good understanding of markets. So it occurred to me that he is probably representative of a number of you.

He was literally in a state of shock. He had been an oil trader for a number of years and had a good understanding of the market. And just like a lot of you is stunned by the seeming bizarre movement of the trade. Dollar strengthening .....oil UP. I told him that the squeeze could last longer but he wasn't listening. His strategy was in tatters.

Anyone that has traded for a long time has moments like these like most of you are and have experienced.

Two simple pieces of advice ......Get out of the market and go to physical gold with three buy orders over next 8 weeks.

Two ....stay in cash right now and wait for miners to pull back then buy and hold

I on the other hand will play with a little of my account for gaps.......and continue to survive...but am mostly in cash and waiting.....gl and remember ALL of us are in this mess.

CVM BIOTECH SAFE HAVEN

Anyone playing CVM is trying to make the determination as to its legitimacy as a biotechnology player......ie....REAL or FRAUD. I can answer that from the scientific standpoint and that is they are real....What I cannot answer is whether they can make it through the guantlet of the regulatory approval process and the hedge fund criminals that have destroyed many legitimate biotech companies that have preceded them.

For any investor that is looking for a risk/reward trade then you have to be interested in this stock. I want you to note that we are talking about a penny stock with three areas in play right now within this technology. THE WILDCARD is the H1N1 play with the LEAPS technology as a swine flu treatment. That is TREATMENT folks and if we get a mutated virus that has severe mortality this company will be looked at for salvation by the FDA.

Number 2 and that is its phase 3 Multikine clinical trial treatment for head and neck solid tumors......this is a potential winner but the evential approval is still down the road.

Number 3 is the Cel 1000 and Cel 2000 technologies that still can produce news in a variety of treatment areas......none of which will come to revenue producing in the near future . All represent distant potential for the company.

The company in the near term has two areas of importance for their survival .....the swine flu play and the Multikine trial. Are these real? Absolutely . Do they guarantee success for this company. Absolutely NO.

The FDA accelerated approval for human clinical studies on LEAPS for the FLU make this a worthwhile hold here. Can this stock move big up.......youbetcha.....but it has downside potential too. If you have the stomach for these biotechs, then in a general market correction a position in this is reasonable . If you are greedy and own too much here. I have NO sympathy for you....but I would secretly be rooting for you. sooooooooo ...gl gang and do you own due diligence.

THE SCOURGE OF LARRY KUDLOW

The DOLLAR??........But of course. Its our foundation. Its what you and I should have our eyes fixed on. Its the "tell". It is what gives Joe fits. ITS the DOLLAR.

What is the game? It is to do a controlled destruction of the dollar to maintain liquidity and to reinflate the system. The equities are a reflection of society and society watches these more than anything outside of their own jobs. This is a completely planned and controlled experiment that has NEVER been done in our history.

What will be the outcome of a reinflation of a credit bubble? Another bubble. That was easy. Now for the more difficult question. If you accept the premise the bubble can be reinflated.....and I do to some extent, then the question should be how long before it deflates. And yes it will deflate. ALL bubbles do. Its the law of nature.

If you have read this blog then you know the simple answer is I believe that 2012-2014 will be cataclysmic mess for the equities markets. In the meantime our economy will languish and we will have continued debate on how weak the dollar can get. Look for a near term strengthening of the dollar and be prepared to buy your miners.

The hope of picking up gold and the miners for cheap is probably gone, but they still should have a nice retrace. My warning to you is it may only be a short pullback ....... a few weeks so be prepared to act.

In the meantime play the gaps on CVM but don't get greedy .......at this price a small core hold is not a bad idea........but keep it small. Also maintain patience this market is now WAY toppy. And it needs a pullback.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

DOLLAR NEWS

This article follows my thoughts on dollar near term so memorize then burn..

http://news.goldseek.com/TacticalInvestor/1255615680.php

See ya in the morning ....

CVM IN PLAY AGAIN

Nice trade today. Look for news on CVM at the conference on it Rheumatoid study. I still think this has potential but it is pure TNT so handle with care.

GREEN SHOOTS

The market keeps marching (GS keeps moving). And the pundits keep pumping. Reality still takes a back seat to the reinflation effort. It should be obvious to most of you this is orchestrated....but the more important question is how long will the uptrend continue before a significant pull back.

The 50 fib retracement is 1120 (if my memory is correct) so there will be an important area to keep your eye on. But of course it is only a number and GS can rip that right out of your ass if you try to trade it heavy......so be careful.

Took a loss on some of my DTO yesterday... Tooooo risky at 75.......will watch EIA report today.

Dollar is weaker too now so I don't like the set up being short oil now but we will see. Oil is a tricky trade here short term until dollar shows strength.

In other words ......watch and see day .....will try to trade gaps but it all looks contrived to be flat and finish green to confirm 10,000 was not a fluke......gl

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

DARK POOLS

Another little problem lurking for the promise of market transparency is growing at an exponential rate. If you think you can play this rigged casino with HFT and Algo killing machines then just be aware they can kill you in another capacity that is patently unfair. This is the world of "Dark Pools".

Do you really believe that you can trust the float you are reading on your Scottrade screen? I don't think sooooo. Hehehe....

These babies provide the big boys the ultimate liquidity edge. They are also part of the reason that the market is moving in some of these issues before you have a chance to get your trousers back up after your morning trading dump.

In a new research report by Aite Group, based on interviews with buy-side firms, broker/dealers, high frequency trading firms, and 27 dark pools, key trends within the dark pool market are examined. The report highlights the major changes to the dark pool market over the last 12 months and profiles 26 dark pools, each with trade volume and high-level workflow.
Dark pools can be defined as execution venues that do not to provide public quotes. The core value of a dark pool is its ability to provide access to liquidity while minimizing market impact. Over the last 12 to 18 months, this rather restrictive definition of a dark pool has been challenged as an increasing number of dark-pool users appear to be willing to live with a certain level of market impact in return for higher fill rates.

Essentially if a stock or group of stocks has news out or COMING OUT and the "buyside" wants to load without changing the price........enter the "Dark Pool". Meanwhile joe blow has to enter after the 25% upside move an hour later and the big buyer sells into the schmucks.

Just another day in the game folks so your education on transparency continues....gl

http://www.financetech.com/feed/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=220301072&cid=RSSfeed_FTN_All

DOW 10,000

Like a knife thru butta.

But at what price. Will this resolve the credit crisis? Will this get our unemployed off the dole and back to work in a vibrant economy? Will this resolve the credit card defaults?Housing defaults? How bout the DOLLAR?

Oh there is a price. Lets start with the price of oil. Our economic growth is inversely related to the price of this vital commodity. We are in a fragile condition. Oil at the current level is like asking a patient that just had a heart attack to walk on a treadmill. Every dollar oil rises now is like turning it up a degree.

Again ....at what price? We got ourselves in this fix by a policy of loose credit and leverage in the banking system with no one doing their job as a regulator. Existing laws could have prevented a lot of the fraud. And of course the repeal of Glass Steagal will prove to be a historical blunder. Is leverage coming out of the big banks? Yes and no. Ultimately what will occur is the collapse of the small and regional banks......and the resultant consolidation of banking within a very small segment of large banks that were essentially saved by you, your children, and their children. They are on the balance sheets of our country.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

REVISIT DROKE

I thought it might be aprapos to replay Cliffs previous cycle explanation and also let some of the newbies peek at the Kress master. Besides as a pretender I really hate hearing myself pretend.

Obviously, the 10-year cycle has been responsible for a lot of the recovery this year. Next year may not be the best year for stocks, but the Fed and the Treasury and the government have made such a concerted effort to revive and stimulate the economy, I think it's going to work for a while. I expect the economy to kind of muddle through 2010, possibly 2011. The year 2011 is the last year that any cycle of consequence peaks out; mainly, the six-year cycle. And that's why I say 2012 to 2014 will be very bad because, during that time, there will be no cycles up; they're all going to be down.So until we get to around 2011 or 2012, we could have a measure of economic recovery. It's not going to be tremendous. Certainly, it won't be like what we saw in the '80s and '90s, coming out of those little recessions, but I think we're going to have some recovery up until then
http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1253308425.php

INTEL BLOWOUT NUMBERS

Should provide another impetus for the market to move up tomorrow. But I want to take another slant. It may also provide a dollar strengthening cover. It appears the dollar weakening is helping Intel so this may be enough to bounce the dollar for a few days. Add to that JPM GS earnings ramp and we may get a little strength this week in our dying currency. Just to keep in mind and lets see how that plays out. In other words we might see some divergence tomorrow and up market and a stronger dollar.

TLR ON A TEAR

TLR news today on increased gold mineralization is sending this junior through the roof... I like it...Bought a little today will add on pullback to the one dollar range (if it goes there)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Timberline-Increases-Gold-pz-2214652616.html?x=0&.v=1

DOLLAR DUMPS

Continued slide of the dollar today with gold moving higher and equities green pre market. Does this sound like a de ja vu all over again? But of course......its a pattern. How often do you have to state the obvious before people will change. This is all about quantitative easing. The last year was a total collapse and this is a desperate effort to reinflate. As those of you that are in a position to take advantage of this then sit and enjoy your core gold.

The real trade is the strategy that I have talked about and that is when they do give us our buy opportunity of the miners . And I am not referring to a position. I am referring buying gold on a pullback heavy when the pundits start to say "I told you so".

Well those that have been patient get there chance to test oil short today. It should bump 75. I didn't know if they could do it, but here it comes. Remember we could get a pop through so lighten up if it does and wait to see if it starts back down before you play for keeps. DTO:)

If they push oil over 80 all hell is going to start breaking loose with the economy. So be careful but I think they will use the dollar to fight this. At least for the interim.

I have to watch volume today(that's a joke)...but do look for gap trades as usual. Pumpers like CVM or DSCO or NVAX...might have a trade. But you KNOW where the safety is long term. GOLD SILVER.....I just want that pullback.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNiaiDqHtOL8

Monday, October 12, 2009

END OF THE DAY MUSING

Joe gives me a call today and rips oil. His point (mine too) is that the health of this economy in the near term depends upon cheap oil to grow out of this mess. In the real world with the consumer's pocket stretched like a 75 cent condom......there is no more room for higher priced oil.

A smart counter would be .....well how bout last summer when they pushed it to 134 a barrel. Ahhh.....well I would answer that with two points. Number one look what happened THEN.... and Number two this aint last summer. The economy is on life support and more importantly GS is in charge. If my suspicions are correct oil will stay in a trading range at the bequest of the administration and their hammer GS.

Could we get a spike over 75 short term? Absolutely. But I have my doubts it would not last longer than a few trading days. Anyway we shall see. Reality is that millions of people are on the verge of bankruptcy and if oil stays at its current level....they are through. Many of these people drive over and hour a day commuting to work and just can't manage the current price levels.

I listen to Terranova now on Fast Money babbling about bullishness on the distillates and all I can say is I hope its not your poor mom driving to some shit job at 10 bucks an hour and trying to meet bills with your bullish distillates.

That is the insensitivity and outright stupidity that is going to make it hard for this country to not wind up with a severe backlash from all of this corporate greed and corruption. I hope all of you make a ton of money shorting oil because I really don't give a shit about the Saudi oligarchy losing their butts. For that matter same to our oligarchy.

ONE MORE THING.....look at these charts and tell me I was wrong about gold

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1255327620.php

THE PLAY TODAY

As usual watch for aforementioned stocks ( CVM DTO LCC AUY SLW SSRI GG NVAX) on gap trades. Market futures green and 10000 on Dow just a touch away. But REMEMBER my uber BEAR call. This could be a set up for the bulls. EVERYONE expects 10K including me. The question is do they nab it here. My guess is it goes down this week.

Watch dollar closely. Watch gold.

I own DTO ....looking for oil to touch 75 before I try another trade.

Lets party.....the bell is ringing....gl

Clarification.....above guess is that 10k goes down this week.....ie YES it hits 10K this week..sorry....if I confused

Sunday, October 11, 2009

SUNDAY

After reading multiple articles this weekend my ideas on what our future holds in terms of investments and the economy continue to crystallize. If we are to believe our eyes and ears then you have to believe that inflation is coming. At least in the form of stagflation. Will we hit demand pull inflation .....I doubt that. But if you do not understand stagflation then I think you had better begin a self education FAST.

With a 55 trillion dollar national debt we have NO realistic alternative but to print money and debase the currency. Our creditors know this and are preparing for that eventuallity. After all ...they are our creditors for a reason. They control us. Now your job is to determine the pathway that this journey will take. The goal of our government is to provide an orderly debasement of our currency and not trigger a run on the dollar that sends us overnight into the dark ages. In my opinion this will occur with starts and stops.

The next two years will provide those of us that wish to trade the market opportunity as they attempt to reinflate the current deflationary spiral. For example that is why the commodities will continue to remain in an uptrend. My preference is the commodity that has the currency as its back up play......gold/silver. BUT don't expect companies beat'n down like the airlines (LCC) not to have more play in them. At least in the near term. The readers that want to be truly safe will stick with bulllion coins and have to start accumulating .....

For the rest of you that wish to be speculative CMV DSCO are as crazy as you want to get. But don't be afraid to look at Junior miners GORO and TLR. I don't own either now.....and am hoping for a pullback...gl gang see ya

Saturday, October 10, 2009

IF ONLY THE WORLD COULD WATCH THIS

Last night I caught Bill Moyers on TV. Thanks to Tom you can watch it too on this link below. Absolutely rivetting. The full show is compelling even for someone like myself that lived and breathed these events the past several years. Whether we agree politically or not....all of us as Americans know that a change in business as usual has to occur. Will it? Yes....eventually.

Nature will exact a severe price for our neglect of our duties as stewards of the earth.....and the piper will be paid. So enjoy this video....It should be emailed to everyone you know.

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10092009/watch.html

Friday, October 9, 2009

WHAT ARE WE GONNA DO WITH ALAN GRAYSON

A good friend of mine in the pharmacuetical business asked me to give some print to this man tonight so I am obliging.....

He is a problem. You can't shut him up. Last week we had video on him that was an internet sensation that brought him over ten thousand donations...blasting the Federal Reserve.

Then he had the audacity to criticize the Republicans and Democrats obstructing Health Care reform. Not just any attack but an in your face shove it up your axx attack. And he just keeps talking. He has no respect for authority. He was called on the carpet by Reid Pelosi and Steny "the snake" Hoyer. They straightened him out pronto.......He was informed that he was a freshman representative and is to be not seen and not heard. He took the message to heart and immediately went out and ripped a new azzhole in the obstructionists of healthcare reform.

My friend is a well healed benefactor of the healthcare bonanza for the past 30 years and knows what a fixed game it all is and is shocked that this guy has the audacity to stand up to the system and confront the fix. After all only 45 thousand people a year now lose their lives each year due to poor or no health insurance according to a recent Harvard study. In fact he himself took on several of the big boys in his past including Walgreens and Mckesson. He just can't believe someone else has the same audacity.

Personally I can accept 45 thousand dead a year if it saves my taxes going up and I can spend my taxes on something more productive like dumping 12 trillion on the big banks.....(can't miss those bonuses this year)...After all what would our economy do if the best and brightest of the bankers go somewhere else. Personally I vote for China ....they are becoming too cocky and we need to give them a virus. Oh wait ...we did that with H1N1..forget that idea...

Back to that 45 thousand problem....ya know those pesky kids are in that number too....nah forget it.........I will just ignore it....They don't vote anyway and its just too awful to really want to think about in detail. So yeh....I will just ignore it. Let's get back to the facts and that is what this bill costs....millions......no.....BILLIONS....no you dumbass TRILLIONS...of dollars. You know that currency that is now worthless anyway. Nevermind the current system costs our GDP TWICE what any other developed country spends. Forget that fact too. Not really important. I've got mine now you get yours.

Oh....thats right Alan fkn Grayson....CEASE and DESIST...You are creating problems. You are trying to save lives .....HOW DARE YOU. Insurance companies need help too. Where is your compassion there ....huh .....HUH.... Damn Next thing you know you are going to be criticizing the Fed again. Well don't worry gang....the PTB will figure out a way to stop this insanity. After all we all know (Joe, you too) .....No good deed goes unpunished..So they will take him down. He knows that too........thats why he is my hero...He knows he is going to get it up the axx, but he speaks out anyway. That my friends is the definition of a hero. RIGHT D.S?....Right

http://wdbo.com/localnews/2009/10/what-did-alan-grayson-say-this.html

NICE DAY FOR A MARKET DUMP

We are in premarket with no news of consequence. Earnings season has started and AA was good. A rogue call for market dump circulated on the net from BAM. No one is at all concerned on the media as higher highs and comfort level basque in the glow of the market rally. All is good. These are the kind of days you DO get a dump.

Dollar strengthening this am ....it is the market now so beware.

Gold is being promoted on every show and outlet...temp top???

I will keep my AUY core but have liquidated all other miners.

Keep your eye on CMV...it may be pump and dump but it smells like it could be the real deal....don't get greed but if it is real then its a 5 bagger down the road maybe more. if not you will lose everything.....that is how these pigs work.

DSCO ....same as above....

TLR .......WOWZA

GORO....yowza

Let's see what they do today...this market is way overdue for a correction .....this is a perfect setup for a stealth yank....dollar shorts are heavy and GS knows it......I like it.....gl gang

Thursday, October 8, 2009

EMPIRE IN DECLINE

"Theres no way out"......ok now you guys will know my true identity. Not really but its almost word for word. Chilling account of where we are right now. Everything is in synch....you owe it to yourself for this ten minute video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5GEU5F_WdA&feature=player_embedded

LEAVING LAS VEGAS

I cannot deny my fascination with Vegas. I go their frequently to escape for a couple of days my mundane existence. Vegas serves as the ultimate tribute to man's ability to fk up nature. Just look at it. A non-sustainable monument to pop culture in the middle of a desert. I just luv it. Millions of rubber necking tourists from the furthest reaches of the earth mixing with fat assed American tourists from Wazoo North Dakota.

One thing I always do is question people when I get an opportunity and this trip was no exception. It is my simple way to get a feel for business. It helped me short the market 3 years ago.

Boy did I get an earful in Elvisville. Seemed like a fair ammount of people but looks are deceiving as I was quickly informed. It seems that many of the tourists are just THAT. Touring. They are enticed by cheap room rates with free slot money and other promos. Not the gambling that existed just a little over a year ago.

My cabbie back to airport gave me an earful. He had been the captain of dining at Caersars for conventions. Sweet money I am sure. He was fired 8 months ago when the first big round of layoffs hit. He took a job with a limo company ...he was gone in 2 months ...business went to zero with the luxury crowd. When he took the cab job average number of fares were 33/day he said they told him then it was bad............now he says its down to 12/day......yikes.

Nevada/Vegas 200K job loss and mounting. Government just passed a 1billion dollar extension for unemployment.

According to the cabbie the burbs are the target of gangs now ...especially the high end shopping areas ...they track the ladies with high end handbags .....nail um at their mercedes......take the bag and the car. Fun eh..........oh brother. Also he said neighbors are watching other neighbors going to work then going in an ripping off the house.

Another issue off the strip is the number of mom and pop restaurants and bars that rely upon their gaming (video poker slots etc.) He said that Vegas licensed 1800 of these and they were just CRUSHED..........can't even pay the electric.

Now for the good news. Room rates and food deals are great. Sheldon at the Palazzo has bent over backwards for the tourists. He is in deep deep chit. According to locals and I did observe this occur....if you complain about anything they comp you or discount your room or meals etc. So its a buyers market out there ....go have fun.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

HUGE UP DAY TOMORROW

NOT.......relax....sarcasm only. Of course that was great news on AA. They are only down 38% rev year to year...Doug Kass said that they raised 1B in cash but have 11B in debt they didn't crow about. I guess we are going to keep denying the terrible year over year top line disaster in these stocks and keep pumping the beat each quarter of the beaten down earnings estimates. Ya now it is bull market.

Anyway the tooth fairy is alive and well but the "good AA" news may provide a nice dump on the news event tomorrow so play accordingly.....some air needs to come out of this baloon and tomorrow is as good as any.

Anyone notice that gold is up. And those of you in TLR got yours today. You lucky baastids.

CVM MIGHT have put in a base. I know on Baastid that cleared 100K on a trade in it today. Not me I am still holding and was out when it gapped up . Long term I think it may have some large movement but its ONLY an educated guess.

Made a trade in DTO again today and UNG. It all adds up.

Trade your gaps tomorrow and be patient...bring those miners down . What the hell GS ....you can DO it.....hehehe gl gang

EARNINGS ARRIVING TONIGHT

Get Ready...Get Ready...its EARNINGS. Will this be the excuse to start dumping equities and squeezing the dollar shorts? WTFK's! One thing for sure we are going to find out shortly. Sorry for my inability to see the future here ....but if you think I can then you better not be in this market.

Dollar up ..gold up ...oil up....my my my....its the vigra market this morning. Hope everyone is still in cash. I added a tiny more CVM yesterday cuz I hate Fuerstein and Cramer turdbirds. I still can't get the taste of that DNDN article out of my mouth.

Vegas is nice but lotta cranes on big projects sitting idle. I think they were nuked. Something about a "credit crunch" I think. They should come back soon. Cabbies tell me business is better lately but the customers are coming out for the room rate bargains and aren't spending. The high end shops on the strip at Caesars and Palazzo are empty. Barney's of New York where I am is huge and sits virtually empty. I wonder how long they can take this.

Market is buying time till AA comes out tonight ....I may be wrong but that might be the trip trigger ....no heavy bet but time will tell. gl gang....


Tuesday, October 6, 2009

UBER BEAR WARNING

Did you remember to stay out of this chop shop. The market is convulsing now. It is so sick that it may soon be removed from life support. This is NOT a joke. As mentioned in multiple prior posts we are losing the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. Is this possible to do? Well I think the answer is becoming clear.

The world is NOT going to tolerate our abuse of the dollar and maintain it as the world's reserve currency. Would you if you were in their shoes? Hell NO. My timetable was next year but its happening right now. Unless GS pulls the rug out from the dollar shorts for one more ramp up then we are in the beginning stages of the end of the empire.

You don't stand on the worlds stage and wag your finger and make statements that you are either with us or against us. When you begin to lose your moral authority as the world leader by destroying your own constitution and spying on your own people....you lose status. Torture..you lose. All actions have reactions. This is not a test today. This is what the beginning of hell for our economy looks like. This is the signal that STAGFLATION is upon us. Yes DEFLATION will be part of it but overall true deflation may still be two to three years off.

Now we get the shaft. Now we see five dollar eggs ...bread....etc...our grocer bills Kaboom. Gas Kaboom. Essential goods through the roof.

In the current job loss disaster 74.7% of the job loss's are MALE. As I mentioned months ago but it bears repeating.....How do you think a tough , strong, male watching his youg attractive wife and two babies suffering...will respond to a NO JOB market and NO JOB PROSPECT market. I think not well. No money and food gas going up up up.

Back to the selfish part of this thread. Gold now has new floor being set ..1000 so trade accordingly. Dollar is toast and I am in Vegas. Things are not all bad. Enjoy life now its gonna get tougher.....

Monday, October 5, 2009

THE SCAM MARCHES ON

"We will do WHATEVER it takes", famous quote from Bernanke in 2008...and repeated. If you recognize the serious meaning of this then you should have cold chills. He has warned us ...the country ...the world and our children that he is going to sacrifice the dollar and its status as the reserve currency to stop deflationa and an economic crash. I cannot overemphasize how dangerous this road is.

I am NOT an economist but I saw this collapse coming 4 years ago as many of you did..so I do not find it credible that Bernanke and the PTB did not see it coming. So I have to assume they have other motives for the unwinding of the credit bubble in the current manner. In the further weeks I will try and provide alternative motives.

In the meantime be aware there is going to be punishment in store for savers as the dollar is bashed. If you have the capacity to transfer into other currencies after the near term dollar strengthing occurs (if it occurs chuckle chuckle) then do it.....more than likely your defense will be physical gold and silver.

As deforestation accelerates to print money look for social instability as stagflation and job loss deepen in earnest. I know its gloom but this is a mess right now. WHERE ARE THE JOBS? People are figuring it out already and that feedback will create a negative feedback loop. Less and less spending in a consumer economy is NEGATIVE for jobs.

On the road and cant do links with this computer so I suggest you read my blog list its great tonight....see ya in the morning. gl

AND THE LEAK GOES ON

Market is green Premarket but looks weak. Oil down gold flat. Watch the dollar for a tip. I will be making a field trip this week to examine how a rigged casino works. So look for valuable field reporting today from the Pallazzo.

Nouriel Roubini is being grilled on CNBC as I type. He sounds a little pessimistic. Well we are into the beginning of the third week of the market correction and I must add it has been quite gentle. Other than that 200pt dow down close. No real fire works the past 2 weeks. I wonder if that is planned. My antennae say that the correction will continue for another few weeks with some increasingly ugly moves in the market.

My strategy remains the same ....I have patiently (not really) waited for dollar strengthening and market weakening with the miners cheapening. So far that is holding true. If you have the discipline to wait they will bring your stocks to you. Still waiting for that ugly news day with market blood red in late october and the afternoon reversal just when all is lost.. THATS the way they play this game. For some readers that have retirement money in the market ..I am still in the school that P2 not over ....gl gang

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/10/feds-failure-as-regulator.html

Saturday, October 3, 2009

PLAYING BIOTECHS LIFE AND DEATH STORY

Know what you are up against. It is sad that this is what real science is up against but be aware of how intricate this process is. My pal Joe and I discussed these very issues today with CVM and then I ran across this piece that is a must read. I was overall saddened but it reinforces a small long term position I have in CVM....time will tell if it comes through...DNDN was a tragedy.I include several excerpts from the DNDN saga and the ordeal they overcame eventually but just imagine the same hurdles for many of these biotechs.....Please read the link it is long but full of eye-opening events.....first lets start with our old pumper/dumper Cramer....


This had partly to do with Cramer. The next evening, on his “Mad Money” program, the journalist (or entertainer, or self-confessed criminal, or… whatever Cramer is) acknowledged that the FDA had not yet rejected Provenge, but drawing upon his medical expertise, Cramer maintained that Provenge was not effective. In characteristically level-headed fashion, he announced that Dendreon shareholders were drunken, carousing, gambling Falstaffs who “might as well take their money to Vegas.”
Dendreon, Cramer added (rather ominously), was a “battleground stock.

But things would get more bizaare for this story.....

Then, on April 28, at 10:01 am Central time — just hours before Dendreon’s triumph in Chicago – an anonymous message board author on Yahoo! Finance posted this message: “HIGH PROBABILITY OF MASSIVE BEAR RAID…DNDN [Dendreon] could easily drop 50% on a massive bear raid…its coming today@12:30 pm central.”
Just minutes before 12:30 pm central, Dendreon’s stock price began to fall. It didn’t just fall–it nosedived from $24 to under $8 … in 75 seconds. That’s correct, during a period of 75 seconds, more than 4,000 trades were placed, totaling 3 million shares, or about 50% of Dendreon’s (spectacularly high) average daily volume. Given that the message board poster knew what was coming more than two hours beforehand, and predicted the timing almost precisely, it is a safe bet that this was a coordinated, illegal naked short selling attack. And just in case you still didn’t get this – it caused Dendreon’s share price to lose more than 65% of its value – in just 75 seconds flat.
“My desk was floored,” one trader wrote on a message board. “We all just stood up swearing, headsets and other assorted desk items being thrown at monitors…I haven’t heard that much swearing in years…”
It was, say others, one of the strangest occurrences in Wall Street history

This story is unbelieveable read the link:

http://www.deepcapture.com/michael-milken-60000-deaths-and-the-story-of-dendreon/

Friday, October 2, 2009

JOB LOSSES EQUAL STARK REALITY

Today's news on the job numbers was cold water on the attempt to rally the economy by rallying the stock market. Its not gonna work. Furthermore it is expending a lot of our precious capital in an area that is not going to produce jobs. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTo1p6Los8CI We are trying to throw paper at an oncoming freight train and that train aint gonna stop. This has been the eye of a hurricane and now the other side is approaching. Is it going to be Dano's P3.........dunno....but I do believe we are now heading for trouble. How bad is it going to be ? ummm.......bad. The question is when and how.

If you read my blog, then you know I believe enough fed and gov programs are in place to ameliorate the impact of the hurricane ....at least in the near term. Quantitative easing with GS as the point man in the market is a formidable force and can make a difference. But they cannot stop the law of nature and the piper will be paid.

In my area I am seeing people regularly now that have not been able to find a job for a year now. And NO prospects. I have friends that lived the high life that are now completely broke. One friend had private jet...a gorgeous home ..he and his family have NO income....home gone. There are NO jobs here. In previous recessions you always felt like there was going to be a turn around as soon as the inventory unwound. Our factories would restart and the economy would hum. Not this time. This is a different animal.


What is reality. Its REAL FKN people losing their jobs with literally NOTHING out there. That is the definition of depression. I spent six years of my life in an area with 20% unemployment and I can tell you first hand it is hell. What I am seeing down the road for us is much worse this time. This will be national but worse GLOBAL. And global economic depressions have always ended badly......

My goal tonight is not to address the global economic meltdown or how to fix it but to call to your attention the needs of your family, friends, and community. RIGHT NOW there are people that you know that need your help. There are certainly people in your community that are in need. This is going to be perhaps the opportunity of your short lifetime on this earth to redeem yourself from the me generation chains, the greed generation chains, and the stick your head in the sand generation. (I qualify for all of these)

I intend to make as much money as I can trading this market and I hope you do to but there is a much more important purpose for us all and that is to help those less fortunate. If you disagree...fine but look in a mirror and ask yourself if tomorrow were your last day on this earth .....what would your friends and family say about you. Think about it .....what would they say.....YOU can change that.......starting tomorrow.

This is very likely going to be the challenge of a lifetime for a lot of us to survive. It may define your life. SO do something. gl gang

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbzlGWPwrZI

BEARS BACK IN CONTROL

NOT......Look for more down moves today but the jobs numbers are not out yet. Most expect this number to be bad. I don't want to guess since it means nothing to how I am playing this rigged casino. Be aware that if they paint a nasty number and tank the market early that they may squeeze your nads today. I don't think they will go two days in a row without taking some of the shorts money. So maybe a short play on a bounce to 1040 area...but be small and be aware everyone is making the same play.

Action in CVM last night AH with company issuing insiders options....may indicate that upside action on the horizon. DSCO pulled back yesterday. May languish here for awhile or MMs may be letting the big boys step in.......I go with the former.

Today will be action packed and volatility should be back....but remember GS can throw water on this at anytime. They have the complete backing of the FED......and they do not want this to become a wild west casino again. My advice is tamp down the euphoria.

Unemployment numbers just came out at 260K just where GS was predicting.....watta rigged casino...have fun trading today and BECAREFUL.....this is gonna get treacherous shorts are in the water now and we know who the shark is.....

Thursday, October 1, 2009

HOW WILL YOU KNOW WHEN GOLD IS AT A TOP

Rick's Picks had this nice little list for grins....but not entirely a joke......enjoy

Things to look for when gold is making its ultimate top:

· Bill Murphy, minus any censoring, is a regular guest on CNBC
· Barron's has an issue with two articles on gold
· Abbe Joseph Cohen turns bearish and announces that 50% of her money is now in gold-related assets
· A CNBC host is heard recommending gold
· The New York Times runs a major front page headline highlighting the price of gold and its price chart
· Jim Sinclair is chosen "Man of the Year" by Time magazine
· Gold is the lead item on the national news every night for a week
· Wal-Mart announces they will begin to sell tiny amounts of gold
· Jon Nadler starts a fashion craze wearing gold lamé suits, and, in an announcement that shocks the financial world, reveals that he is starting a round-the-clock precious metals channel. Another coup is that Dennis Gartman and Leonard Kaplan will be his featured analysts.
· Your local jewelry store takes down its Cash For Gold sign and replaces it with "We Sell Gold"
· In a recent poll, Yale and Princeton grads reveal that their top career choice is to start a gold exploration company
· Goldman Krupp, correction, Sachs, changes its name to Gold and Silver Sachs
· An enterprising young Gold and Silver Sachs executive comes up with an idea of franchising gold coin shops
· Bill Murphy is frequently seen dining with mainstream Wall Street executives, and "Midas" sightings -- as he is known throughout the world -- become commonplace in the gossip columns
· Brokerage houses and banks fire their financial analysts and frantically start gold research departments to cash in on gold mania
· Some of your friends or relatives call you to recommend some gold stock that you must buy, and inform you that they are now up 50% in their gold stocks
· All mainstream gold forecasters raise their gold price target by $500 for the year
· The "Association of Gold Trading Advisory Services" formed in March 2010, publishes a 15-page apology on the internet. In brief, the document apologizes for the years of predicting near term tops and missing 90% of the entire move in gold and silver. They are now long-term investors and predict that a tradable top is not in sight
· The Donald builds a series of "Trump Oros" in the Sierra Madres for Mexican miners
· In one week, 15 new movies connected with gold are announced to be ready for production
· A remake of the movie Goldfinger features Sean Connery's grandson as Bond and Jon Nadler as Auric Goldfinger. This time, the villain gets away with the gold and Bond is accused of the theft. Goldfinger is actually filmed inside Fort Knox, which, since it was discovered to be empty of gold, becomes the world's largest production set. As an aside, the guards at Fort Knox were falsely accused of the gold theft but convicted anyway in a secret trial. During their defense, the guards claimed that there hadn't been any gold there for over 30 years.
· Golden Fleece, current market cap $7.6 million, tenders a friendly

MUSINGS OF A MADMAN

Incoherent borderline delusional rambling.....Ken Lewis is news today...hehehe...the designated "sacrificial lamb"...throw the retard under the bus. Actually I think its poetic justice for the schmuck. His life has been MnA with dead bodies strewn across the banking landscape....so no cry for me argentina here. Although it is said that one dipshit like him can be thought of as enough raw meat for the masses...I don't think so.

Next.....claims number .....a little worse than expected 520K or sumthin....anyway...another crock of shit .....who cares. And if you don't believe that watch todays action. Futures almost turned green and oil actually did. Oh my....watta world.

Next....watch the triangle that formed yesterday .....will it break up OR down.....I say yes....hehehe ....can't help myself. Of course they wil chop this trade to hell . Its called the ALGO SLAUGHTER FIELDS. Maybe they will make a movie about it but it might be too violent to get a PG rating....so maybe not. Ya know what I mean.....dismembered traders .....language....and nudity (girls on CNBC).

Well the markets about to open I am watching for my gap trades LCC AUY DSCO NVAX CVM...maybe I will hit one today...good luck and keep your cash handy.....