Monday, November 30, 2009

Dollar Set To Surprise

This article is a contrarian view to those who expect dollar rally soon, we shall find out which way this crap goes. The dollar ($) is set to surprise the few remaining speculators that think it can't happen by falling further straight away, possibly taking it down to test all time lows at 71. Here, we are talking about the possibility of a more disorderly decline in the $ developing as a result of gold progressing into a parabolic rise, primarily predicated on year-end hedge fund buying into December. First it will be this that takes precious metals higher into year-end, and then the rally could continue for numerous other reasons, not the least of which being a lack of physical, which appears to be a growing concern. So, it appears our greedy bankers / brokers will have their Merry Christmas this year, hoping the public continues to ignore the increasingly embarrassing message a runaway gold price is throwing off, but they will likely not escape entirely, and in the end. The irony off all this is price-managing bankers may have finally outwitted themselves in terms of their own eventual demise, with the greedy hedge fund industry they have nurtured and used to do their bidding all these years forced to turn on them – it’s survival of the fittest. If they bid gold up too fast it will create a mania, which in the end will bring attention back to precious metals in roundabout fashion. You should know most hedge fund buying is exactly that, nothing more than competitive gaming. These guys are not in it for the long-term, and it wouldn’t matter to them if they were trading gold or widgets. So, if the $ keeps falling past year’s end some observers would be surprised, despite obvious reasons in plain view for all to see it will continue to offer no fundamental demand. Sure it seems ridiculous for China to criticize the US for printing money when it’s own activities appear just as bad, however they have not increased their monetary reserves more than a hundred times over the past few years like the socialists in the States, which is what all the hubbub is about. The Chinese are worried the ridiculous little people in Washington will start monetizing pensions plans, etc., taking the practice too far, not that it’s already not happening. Pay special attention to the 3 charts in the article

http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1259610578.php

This is what awaits most after 2012:
http://www.official-bs.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/beggar-703093.jpg

WARNING: THIS MARKET IS SICK

And about to go termninal. The house of cards is about to collapse. Now...here's the catch ....WHEN???? As long as they are willing to print and devalue its still game on. Then why the headline? Because I don't trust ANYTHING right here NOTHING. The charts look like a completely manipulated overbought volume depleted destroyed market period. This is for the readers that are buy and hold kids. GET THE FOCK OUT NOW.

Today's action was obvious...simply an effort to contain the spill-over from Dubai and maintain the CONfidence with a green paint job. My concern is that there actually may be enough resistance at the 50fib that they may have to take this pig down soon to maintain the mo mo necessary to achieve my target of 1240 area. World markets are roiling in a big way here and I want the buy and hold crowd to know this is not a time to be long in a big way in anything. Reduce your miners big time if we have a nice move to the SnP 1100 tomorrow.

Now for the traders....build a little short play with TZA and try to trade the gaps on the miners still. Watch DTO they may run it close to 80 tomorrow.

Here is your question on gold. What country is the largest producer of gold in the world? Yup you are right its China.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6NPaKwHGXnc

TRAPPED LIKE RATS

Well well well....our little ponzi has some problems here. Daddy won't guarantee his naughty son's spending in the desert. At least for now. But don't worry kids we will keep throwin' the paint on for you ...so don't expect an immediate collapse. But make no mistake....the sphincter tone on uncle Ben is tight this morining.

Moral hazards have a way of coming back to bite you in multiple areas at once. This credit issue is going to start spilling over quickly in other countries if they don't get their collective central bank fingers in the leak. So stay tuned to this.

My take is they keep it in check for the near term but this is nevertheless a cancer and it is metastasizing all over the world. We are dying and we just are in denial. For the time being I like denial and will play it. Go ahead Ben keep piling on the moral hazard and trying to cheat nature. Remember Ben nature never forgets and has no timeline except hers...and your ass is hers.

Even if it all starts collapsing in a domino effect it will make no difference to my strategy. I will hope that gold takes a short term hit with the miners sliding with the overall market as dollar strengthens. Absolutely perfect. I am holding a miners position now. And would love a big pullback to add to it.

Same strategy today as yesterday and the day before.......trade miners, dto. gl gang

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1259564700.php
Also gang look at TZA small here...

Sunday, November 29, 2009

ABU SCHMABI

Buckle up for the monday opening....but don't get too surprised by the news it aint goin down. No one is more bearish than I am overall but the overseas news is baked in and I just don't think they are going to let it tank it next week.

For what its worth I had a nice visit this weekend with a real live Hedge manager this weekend and it was what I anticipated. Their expertise in many areas is no better than ours....Not only that their liquidity problems are insurmountable in a crash like last year unless they were directly hooked to Goldman.

Also our suspicions about the derivatives are correct. They are completely irreparable but they are trying to trade some of the bonds for pennies even though they might be worthless.

Can't really be much more specific but that is the essential take away. That is why most hedge funds are going to probably have a hard time making it.

Tomorrow will be more of the same trade the miners on gaps....and watch DTO.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Gold will Reach Mind-boggling Levels – for Good Reason!

We are staring at a nascent but potentially and probably startling increase in the price of gold and precious metals mining stocks and warrants. Gold will reach mind- boggling levels because the actions of our political leaders and their academic and credentialed enablers are virtually guaranteeing it with their current actions.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1259186241.php

In the short term, take a look at following analysis:

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1259161260.php

Thursday, November 26, 2009

SLAUGHTER DEVELOPING TONIGHT

Great headline...but meaningless just like the futures are right now. Watch how they play this....Is there panic? NO WAY. Nor will there be.....at least none that you will see. Can they paint this tape anytime they want to? Absolutely...at least to a point. Black Swan excluded.

So the question is what happens tomorrow. The answer is who the fck cares. You should be in cash and waiting for a miners pull back ...hoping this pig rolls over a little for you to get back in. In other words adding on pullbacks SSRI AUY GG JAG EGO AVN SLW TLR GORO ABX....These are what will carry you through in the long run.

If you were really wise which I am not....you would be on the sidelines sitting on physical gold period.

Anyway Dubai default is no surprise to anyone in the "know". So why would you think this is not already completely planned by the PPT.

Enjoy and hope we get some take back.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

BIG TROUBLE IN THE WORLD

And we deserve this mess. Gold is ramping up through the hidden pivot of 1174....this is significant gang it means that the central banks have a huge problem and all fiat is being dumped for gold.......either they get control fast or this is a quick race to hell...

Either bring in Volker and take your medicine now Mr. President or you can say goodbye. This is a fast spiral to hell. The Ponzi is being called by the real money in the world.

If you look at the tape for the past couple of yrs, the lowest the dollar index reached was around 69/70 and Gold hit high of 1030 during that time and retraced. Now Dollar index is around 75 and Gold close to 1200. Dollar index is hovering around 75 and not CRASHING but Gold keeps moving up regardless, that means there is coordinated effort by India, Russia, China, Rich Arabs and others to keep buying Gold not just because of lack of trust for the Dollar, but also not trusting other fiat paper currencies including their own. This is a real mess and a global crisis.
Gang this is a bad sign ....it is a potential nightmare.It looks as though they have their hands full

GDP PONZI

Another Ponzi number release for the masses. As most numbers this is suspect and certainly influence by massive government spending, but then we already knew that. Just another ponzi to support a ponzi of a ponzi. Whoops ...did I really SAY that. Anyway I thought you might enjoy looking at our ponzi compared to other countries ponzi gdp numbers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

So what does it all really mean? That is my point ....nothing. Its a world ponzi directed by central banks for financial control. Pay attention to the underlying problem. Keep it simple. Essentially they have allowed the feathers of all the pidgeons to be picked clean. There are no baby pidgeons growing new feathers to replace them. So now they have to bring in the stall tactics to return CONfidence to the featherless pidgeons to try and make them fly. The problem is ...even if the pidgeons are dumb enough (and we are) ....they can't fly. So we are back to watching the slow motion train wreck. Which winds us all the way back to today and the stock market.

Look for dto trades today and of course the miners. Should be a quiet day as traders head for grandmas house so I plan on being aggressive with my miner day trades. gl gang. Oh and be patriotic and grow your feathers. Buying bullion today and every other week for next 6 weeks...gl

Monday, November 23, 2009

IMPORTANT READ IN REGARD TO TAXES

Read the following carefully and be aware:
http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2009/11/18/beware-the-tax-traps-of-commodity-etfs/

what K1 tax does to commodity ETFs/ETNs outside of 401k/IRA ( marginable trading accounts) is, it makes your cost basis CHEAPER than acual buy, so if you actually made $1000 profit, you will be taxed for $2000 or more profit. The same applies to LOSS, if you lost money, due to cheaper cost you might end up paying and taxed since according to cheaper cost average you made money.

Gold: A “Channel Buster” or a Runaway Parabola?

Good article by Clif Droke:

The uptrend in gold is now approaching the moment of truth. The gold price is nearly 5% above the upper boundary of the uptrend channel breakout point and approaching the point where it must either pull back to test support at the channel boundary (previous resistance, new support) or else we’ll have a “channel buster failure” on our hands. In this case the “failure” would be to the upside and would tell us that buying power is simply too strong and persistent for investors to expect a meaningful pullback. The level of hedge fund money chasing gold would be deemed too powerful at the present to afford those who missed the last breakout a convenient entry point.

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1258926249.php

NATURAL GAS

Good article on Natural Gas, UNG is garbage , SGY and CHK are good ones:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15238.html

As far as oil is concerned, excellent trading day for DTO.

CHARGE

Will maintain updates on this all day as the bull resumes its charge . Gold exploding and testing its 1170. See if that holds. Miners strong. Traded out of AUY EGO and will try to reenter. DTO too dangerous to enter heavy until 80 is hit...

Do not despair this bull has further to run. I just wish we could get some dollar strenthening here,but alas not to be.

UNG starting to perform ......may see brief run.

Enjoy the trades today ....mine will be in the miners. gl

update.....Spin machine out full force today ...I may have been too generous in my assessment of Geithner's tenure. In other words they are going to move fast on him. The wheels are turning much faster than I expected and they need to get a face in there fast to stabilize the pitchfork crowd. Dimons name is front and center. Bye Tim BTW you had a short shelf life when you were tabbed.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dimon-seen-as-successor-to-rb-2946489012.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode

Update 2.....Deflation??? One of my partners has a friends daughter in UCLA ....her tuition this year alone is up 42%.....they just raised it 32% what they failed to say it was already up 10% this year. Go ahead and make your deflation arguments but be aware ....in TRUE OVERALL DEFLATION....tuition does not go up 42% in one semester.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

WEEKEND SUMMARY

Check the following:

Gold Targeting $1200 by March 2010, $1350 2010.: $1,150 ($1,046) + 10%

Gold soared and silver played catchup. The target for March is $1200 the current price of $1,150 is well ahead of schedule, on face value this either signals some sort of impending currency crisis, or more probably Gold is short-term overbought and due a correction back through $1,100.

Dow Targeting 10,350 to 10,500 During December 2009 :10,437 (9,712) + 7.5% target achieved.

The Dow hit the mid target range of 10,425 and started a 'normal' correction that continues to target 9950 to 9900 (as per last weekends newsletter).

USD Targeting 84 during December 2009 : 75.61 (76.36) - 1%

The U.S. Dollar eeked out a small gain for the week as it continues to attempt to build a base at 75, with the nearest buy trigger remaining at 77.00.

In Summary, Stocks, Gold and Silver in progress or imminent corrections and awaiting Dollar uptrend confirmation.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15216.html

We are in a nice uptrend on gold here and the long awaited pullback is not happening. At least not yet...and remember I did say and will reiterate here ..you need to start making purchases of physical gold averaging in to a full position over the next 2 months...This is now the final chance before the parabolic rise in gold begins. In other words you aint seen nuttin yet. Hell's comin and monetization is comin with it.
Tiny Tim got his ass spanked and you can bank on it he is done. Won't happen overnight but his tenure is terminated. He knows it. His response indicated that. Way out of his league but he served his purpose to the bankers.

Health Care....waste of time to report but eventually we will be thrown some kind of bone and in reality the insurance companies will MORE than survive in case any of you were concerned. After all if the insurance companies don't have all the cookies they can steal in the bill then who would be there to finish off those still standing before the 2012 washout. Yes it is important. Its important that they maintain the status of health insurance companies being exempt from antitrust laws....ie. they SHOULD be able to continue having monopoly powers to facilitate the rape of the citizenry.

I also noted that the debate over the collapse in retrospect was being debated this week by journalist on bloomberg....Trillions and Trillions and Trillions 23 trillion if you are counting....some are still saying it was about housing. NO NO NO it wasn't about housing ...that was a tool...it was about leverage......CDS..CDO...DERIVATIVES....WEAPONS OF FINANCIAL MASS DESTRUCTION. Don't get sucked into that kinard.

Keep playing the miners SSRI SLW AUY JAG GG ABX GORO ANV EGO or just buy and hold.

May be getting a dollar trend change be cautious but I like DTO as a trade...I am completely out of DTO as of Friday close.

Lastly Oprah is going off air in two years. Now there is an icon. I know I know...what the hell are you saying. Sorry I like the biatch...so kiss my ass ..you too Joe .....I know you are laughing at me..gl gang

http://seekingalpha.com/article/174516-junior-miners-poised-for-impressive-gains?source=hp_wc

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Van-Ecks-Gold-Miners-Jr-Makes-ibd-2809541438.html?x=0&.v=1

Friday, November 20, 2009

FOREFATHERS QUOTES IN REGARD TO BANKERS

Fore Fathers Quotes

“I sincerely believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.”
-- Thomas Jefferson

“History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and its issuance.”
-- James Madison

“The inability of the colonists to get power to issue their own money permanently out of the hands of George III and the international bankers was the PRIME reason for the Revolutionary War.”
-- Benjamin Franklin

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and the corporations which grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
-- Thomas Jefferson

“I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution - taking from the federal government their power of borrowing.”
-- Thomas Jefferson


"The bold effort the present (central) bank had made to control the government ... are but premonitions of the fate that await the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it. I am one of those who do not believe that a national debt is a national blessing, but rather a curse to a republic; inasmuch as it is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country. Every man is equally entitled to protection by law; but when the laws undertake to add… artificial distinctions, to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society -- the farmers, mechanics, and laborers -- who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their government. Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. If Congress has the right under the Constitution to issue paper money, it was given to be used by themselves, not to be delegated to individuals or corporations. It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the grace of the Eternal God, will rout you out."
---- Andrew Jackson


" I have two great enemies, the southern army in front of me, and the financial institutions in the rear. Of the two, the one in my rear is my greatest foe."
---- Abraham Lincoln


and the Clive Owen on bankers:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/video/2009/feb/24/clive-owen-the-international

Thursday, November 19, 2009

WHAT HAS BEEN DONE TO DOLLAR & SILVER CYCLES

Inflating the money supply causes a transfer of wealth from existing holders of money to the first recipients of the newly created money through the process of devaluation. It is, in essence, a form of theft.

"...the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost." (Governor Ben S. Bernanke, Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here)

What we today regard as U.S. legal tender is not legitimate dollar bills. There is no longer any paper currency or fixed concept of value known as a "dollar bill". We carry and transact business with Federal Reserve Notes, and they merely represent the concept of a dollar bill.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1258581728.php
In regard to Silver Cycles, this one is interesting:

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1258488889.php

For Friday DTO is the play.

COLLAPSE IMMINENT

Oh my god. Its over. Stick a fork in it. Look what has happened. Just like last year. The three year treasury went negative. So what do we do now? Lets go short. All in for the Algo machine butcher shop chop job. Sarcasm does not translate well so I will elaborate. This charade is not over yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7ZewAVLDsbM&pos=1

Not quite yet. Sit tight and watch here. Much safer and you will keep your balls attached...sorry ladies... There is no reason to expect anything more than more of the same. Hopefully we can get a nice dollar move here and they can trend the market down to a SnP level of sub 1000. Don't hold your breath but you can hope.

By the way did any of you have time to play the miners today on those nice moves. Note which ones made nice steady intraday moves. AUY was a monster. SSRI... I can't even catch that one. And what about the price of gold. It is decoupling from the dollar. We have discussed this and it is telltale sign as you know by now that the world is running from paper. They know they are going to be destroyed and aren't waiting for pullback.

Did you notice the anti-trust exemption that the senate bill was going to remove that protected the health insurance corporations was stripped out of the health care bill. What a FARCE.

There is no way I can end without a comment on Geithner and Congress. That was a dog and pony show. These guys know the public is going to turn on them all like rabid dogs and the astute politicians are going to throw Timmy to the masses as a bone...count on it. But they should all resign with him. gl gang

One more thing......DTO...watta mdrfkr....tomorrow should be more of the same but I closed half my position today....remember it is nitrogycerin balanced on the tip of a spear.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

WE ARE SO SCREWED II

After looking at the metrics over and over today it is apparent that THE GREAT EXPERIMENT is failing. Just look at the New Housing Starts....Down 10.8%. They were expected to be UP!! Gimme a break. That was month to month. But listen to this. They were down 30.7% compared to the same time a year ago. HOLY SHIT batman. Think about how bad that comparison is.The first-time-home buyer tax credit scam hadn't even expired. Well...whoops guess that give-away failed. Hope you guys and gals that live by the rules appreciated that tax-payer give away to the real estate and builders industry and of course the bankers.

NEXT...oh my favorite the health care bill. Let's not take a stance Mr. President. Let's leave it to the Congress. Let's have the most vulnerable to the lobbyist's payoffs to conduct an overhaul of a completely broken system. So today these guys so far have trotted out over 1000 pages of garbage for giveaways to every niche of health care and banksters...within this morass of payoffs resides some pathetic healthplan that gives some type of insurance to 36 million uninsured about half of the working uninsured. What a mess. Sorry guys and gals but seriously this system is so broke that the only answer that I can really come up with that makes any sense is a one payer system and throw out all the insurance rapist. I would rather have an incompetent government system than the rapists running the insurance companies.
Which runs of course into the biggest banks ......simple government should have bankrupted them (understand they bankrupted themselves) and broke them into pieces like Volker said to do ....PERIOD......it could have been done and should have been done .....AMEN...and I am not religious...but if god does not intervene ......nature will.

HARD DECISION

Today's market is signalling indecision.....it wants to head higher but it is so uberbot that it is just sick here. Spinning top on oil today shows indecision but at the top of previous recent runs it has signalled a down day coming. Since oil touched naughty naughty territory today and pulled back...I have my money on the past playing out again.

Miners are so tired but still have not broken trend. I traded some today EGO AUY...still have some juniors...even added tiny VGZ.

Missed my SGY trade.

Remember gang this is a nasty spot right here again stay in cash except for quick trades.

Lastly many are questioning golds run. I am practically out of the miners so I guess you can include me in the short term questioning gold here. Sentiment is way too hot. But with the U.S. destroying the dollar long term to keep this ponzi up ...I think you have to be buying bullion gold here and over the next two or three months . We are toast. If you believe that they can really strengthen this dollar significantly ie. above 78....without tanking the ponzi...then more powere to you. They did not go to the trouble to ramp this pig to this level to tank this market. This is a GOVERNMENT led PONZI. They will not let GS tank it. Pull back maybe. GL

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

OIL SLICK SPOTTED

During WW2 after a fast destroyer made a depth charge run on a Japanese sub in the pacific, they would look for the tell tale oil slick. Unfortunately we are in a different war. This slick occurred after the oil manipulators did a hard depth charge run on our economy. And before you start snoring you had better get ready for the possibility of another final kill run on us.

$2.5 Trillion - That’s the size of the global oil scam.

It’s a number so large that, to put it in perspective, we will now begin measuring the damage done to the global economy in "Madoff Units" ($50Bn rip-offs). $2.5Tn is 50 times the amount of money that Bernie Madoff scammed from investors in his lifetime, but it is less than the monthly excess price the global population is being manipulated into paying for a barrel of oil.

Where is the outrage? Where are the investigations?

Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), BP (BP), Total (TOT), Shell (RDS.A), Deutsche Bank (DB) and Societe Generale (SCGLY.PK) founded the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in 2000. ICE is an online commodities and futures marketplace. It is outside the US and operates free from the constraints of US laws. The exchange was set up to facilitate "dark pool" trading in the commodities markets. Billions of dollars are being placed on oil futures contracts at the ICE and the beauty of this scam is that they NEVER take delivery, per se. They just ratchet up the price with leveraged speculation using your TARP money. This year alone they ratcheted up the global cost of oil from $40 to $80 per barrel.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/172797-the-global-oil-scam-50-times-bigger-than-madoff?source=article_sb_popular

Monday, November 16, 2009

CHINESE TORTURE

As the U.S. dies a "death by a thousand cuts" the Chinese prepare for the eventuallity of the dollar funeral. One of the first steps that the Chinese are engaging in is a test run of their currency going out into the "real world". The Chinese are masters at long term planning and make no mistake every step they take is coordinated long in advance. They do NOT have the same impediments to their planning as we have. They don't have a bloated greed driven banking system pulling the strings for their economy. That would be dealt with in a hurry. No...they have already begun testing to escape from the dollars slow death as noted in this excerpt.......

"If this experiment goes well, it will hasten the pace toward convertibility," says Julia Leung, Hong Kong's undersecretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, who is charged with implementing the convertibility regulations in conjunction with Chinese government officials. "The currency is more or less already convertible in Hong Kong. This is a good way of testing international demand."

Although China has set no official timetable, financial analysts now look to that 2020 date for full convertibility. But it may come sooner -- as soon as China feels it has sufficiently worked out any bugs, as well as liberalized its domestic economy to the extent that the system can handle external shocks.

"Once they have the mechanisms, the machinery, and the infrastructure in place, then they can scale up very quickly," says Enoch Fung, an economist with Goldman Sachs. "This is new, uncharted territory. We can make all the mistakes here, and we will."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/16/news/international/china_yuan_currency.fortune/

FANTASYLAND FOR RETAIL

The morning spin today were the retail sales for October. Up 1.4%... MORE than expected. And that is the best we can muster after all our reinflation stimulus effects are counted. Oh my. Of course Lowes numbers were more green shoots. Look at that wounded whale. Talk about dead in the water. Of course it was pumped as better than expected, but as usual the devil was in the details. Revenue continued to disappoint and TOP line is telling and hard to hide. Also hidden in the Lowes report was the fact the big ticket items are dead. People are BROKE. Tapped OUT.

Gold up. Dollar down. Oil up. Shocking

Watch China trip for any possible temporary change in dollar here.

Buy or trade miners today. Looks like they are continued higher in the near term and long term. Intermediate term puleeeze bring um back a little....I hate to chase.

Watch SGY and LCC for any quick gap trades. TLR GORO>

Sunday, November 15, 2009

TRADING CONFIDENCE

This is the BEAR of all bear markets as I have repeatedly stated. We are in a cyclical bull market right now within a secular bear market. Simply stated ...things will eventually turn worse within the next year sometime. They will not deteriorate into hell as many predict. The power of the Fed, Treasury and more importantly the entire world will hold this ponzi together longer than many of you can imagine. Now for those of you that ask the next logical question .....well what stops them from running this ponzi with another multi-decade illusion of GDP growth?
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1442-More-On-My-Deflationary-Collapse-Ticker.html
The answer to the above question is key to understanding economics. Essentially what has occurred over the last 100 years has been a year over year steady increase in worker productivity driving the supply side of our demand/supply equation. BUT and a BIG BUT....for the past 35 years there has been a steady decline in worker wages that has had an effect on the demand side. To make things worse .....we compensated by developing a massive ponzi within individuals (workers) that involved a credit binge that further hid the underlying collapse in savings, wages, but continued to perpetuate the demand side ponzi. So where are we now? We just moved back a couple of years and reinflated the ponzi with a multitude of schemes...notice how little though its really growing the real economy. BUT it is "kinda" growing. I think. No...its over....kaput...toast...The worker is shot. Credit ponzi OVER. Pulling money out of houses for Vegas high roller trips OVER. For hardwood floors OVER. For new cars OVER. Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous OVER....ie. the final fuel for the ponzi is not refuelable.

I apologize for having to copy and paste my links it should be temporary....but here is a link that aptly summarizes the above fallacy and why it will fail ultimately. If you have not read this please take the time. It was written in 1997 about the main causes of the Great Depression and is very eerily similar to today.

http://www.gusmorino.com/pag3/greatdepression/index.html
Now for the title reference. You cannot be trading this market with confidence as you would typically attempt to do. Confidence is a critically important quality of a good trader BUT a good trader MUST be willing to challenge their own assumptions with critical thinking and ADJUST. You are in a collapsing world economy. But it is NOT going to collapse tomorrow. This is a slowest of slow motion train wrecks now. Be prepared to adjust investment and trading strategies in this massively manipulated market. For those of you that want to be prudent..buy physical gold...or invest in a basket of miners. AVERAGE in over the next 4 months. AUY SSRI GG SLW. I intend to trade because I can afford some risk. And I am by nature a risk taker. GL

Saturday, November 14, 2009

THE GAME

An excellent anaysis that I happen to believe is very spot on will follow my monologue along with an ending comment from Immred. Analyze is a veteran from the SKF war days and was kind enough to provide a comment that gives a very nice summary of what you are dealing with trying to trade this market. Think very carefully about what he says then decide your own strategy.

Let me weigh in on the complexity of the real trading model that everyone and his cousin is trying to contend with. I made reference to a sector rotation model that I trade to months ago on the SKF board, and also stated I had to juniorize some of the prior charts I posted on another site. That being said, let me explain to you how the GS algo program works, and why you achieve less than expected results if you follow free TA blogs.
The limitation of any analysis that you see from some of the most popular blogs of former SKF members is that they treat the market as a static entity that can be assessed either through EW or other means.
The problem inherent to how they analyze this, is that the quant programs run by GS are not based on a point in time system, instead they run under a sector rotation model, and the quant programs also have an algorithm they run through to sweep up through timeframes starting at the lower, and moving through to resolve at weekly timeframes. To you from a trading perspective it would appear like a "wheel within a wheel" model where the action in a given position does not ebb and flow as you would expect, and you have a "WTF" moment once one of the algo waves completes and abandones your sector position to move on to its next target. That is why if you hold an individual position you will have a period of stability, followed by a wave of action, then technicals seem to come back into line after the wave ends. You may notice this if you trade multiple positions across sectors, there is an ebb and flow to what occurs. What was a great short position a couple days ago (X, POT)now has upward momentum as the quant programs rotate. Fundamentals are irrelevant, actually so is TA unless you understand how this system works. The GS algo programs have an inherent limitation that shows up in some stages - I posted a few days ago giving specific SPY values that had to be adhered to, I did that because I knew what their model had to resolve to. When they break away from this, they are able to once more apply their rotation model. It is not by chance that when currencies enter basing patterns that normal TA "seems" to make sense, only to be thrown out the window once a down/up trend can be re-established in USD versus other currencies. I agree with Kli, you are either trading gold-related positions, or are a target in waiting for the quants. If you do not have enough TA to contend with this type of quant model, good luck out there, you will need it. - Analyze.

November 14, 2009 1:49 AM
immred6 said...
GS quant programs are set up carry out FED/Treasury policy set each day after they finish their circle jerk. It's an essential part of managing the reflation and monetization; it does not function in a vacuum or solely around equities, it includes commodities, debt repurchases, money supply etc. The illusion of CONfidence has to be maintained, with a little bonus or two for the GS/JPM contractors.

It is essentially now part of the command economy, Stalin would be proud.

If you still want to gamble, play anything that will go up in a short stagflation scenario on a pullback. This will go on with planned pullbacks until the system breaks which I am guessing is when oil is past $150 and unemployment is above 20% and you see IBs hanging from lamp posts.

There is diminishing value in the paper trades, so get and stay out if you value your sanity and liquidity.

Start bunkering down and preparing for when the social order starts to break down when the reflation and monetization fails in a couple years.

Stick with trying to be debt free, some hard assets and if you want to play paper then park some in foreign cds like Australia or Canada.

Thanx again guys and gals for your imput...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTbdnNgqfs8

Friday, November 13, 2009

MOMMY MOMMY

What the shorts are saying when GS asks the key economic question "Who's your Daddy".
More chop today to destroy the traders still believing that Classic T/A will predict this market. This trade requires every metric you have ever come to learn and then you have to have an understanding of who is driving this market and WHY.

Many of you are aware of the horrific damage done to our markets last year and the investor confidence that was established. What you may not comprehend fully is the incredible damage to the market that is not visible and that is not calculable by any one public metric.

Currently we are at a crossroads as Joe likes to say. It is critical that we move the market down for an accumulation of energy for the market to meet destiny. My guess is 1250 in January. But not that important to my strategy. For the long term buyers here start going now into SSRI SLW GG AUY...also new one RTN and GROW...all of these are long term butt kicking monsters.

We are fkd that is for sure but it is time now to start your preparation...please begin buying physical gold ....the pullback we hoped for just never really happened so good luck its still cheap....

I am looking for more market weakness today like I have said they need to pull back to give the appearance of a "healthy" market. Then turn it on the shorts again and drive to glory..

Watch DTO I love it but its nitro......handle with care. Watch 68 on dto if it closes over ....welll.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

THE WORLD'S GREATEST PONZI

Come on now Zimbabwe Ben ..... lets get the pump goin. It is no longer a secret. You are in the greatest Ponzi ever and Zimbabwe Ben is the ring master. This circus will go on forever.......at least that is what he has told us. Remember the quote "whatever it takes".

Well I may have some bad news for you cowboy. Your experiment has some problems. Remember every action has an opposite and equal reaction. Quantitative easing, monetization of the debt, toxic asset subterfuge all have a heavy price to pay to the real economy.

Here is an analogy by a sage economist...If a doctor has a patient that he diagnosis cancer on. A nasty painful tumor. And the doctor gives the patient morphine to take for the pain....but the patient instead of getting surgery for the tumor and enduring the pain of surgery and the recovery and the painful radiation......decides that the morphine is so helpful they take more morphine. They feel great....as time passes.......the tumor grows larger and the patient is completely addicted to the morphine. Now the patient has to have a much more difficult surgery with a much greater rehabilitation time and very very painful recovery due to the morphine addiction. If only the patient had taken the pain initially and had the tumor removed. Well......that is where we are ....if we had taken our pain last year and gone into deflation and cleared our economic tumor we could have recovered and started over in only a few years. But our "morphine' by Dr. Ben is toxic and the price we are going to pay will be severe as our addiction AND tumor grow.

Those of us that lived by the rule of economic responsibility with little or no debt are going to be punished severely by the coming stagflation and must try to make it through the next two years. Buckle down. Joe say's your gonna see some nasty increases in goods and services and it will be hard.

I like physical gold and silver. For those inclined to play the market here keep trading the miners on gaps and hope we get a little pullback.....I am not looking for gold to break more than 5% pullback. But then so far it has given us little.
Keep watchin LCC. Play SSRI AUY GG SLW. They are just animals lately and someday will really roar. BTW Gold will get to over 3,000 maybe 5,000 before it finally comes down hard.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER

Something is terribly wrong with the market. That is becoming more apparrent to me. The attempt to make this market appealing to the general investor class is an experiment. It ia a ponzi to reinflate a ponzi. The medicine that we should take is deflation not a devaluation of the dollar with incredible pain to come to the very people that can least afford the effects of stagflation.

Prepare yourselfs for the test of a lifetime.....we are experiencing increasing prices in key areas of essential goods and services and taxes. Our economy will continue to fail with all our resources having been directed to the very institutions that played key roles in our collapse.

The market has lost complete confidence as a free market. Even grandma is asking the question how can this market be going up every day.....People are NOT stepping into the trap. Anyone long here is so nervous that GS can't even do a 10% correction without opening a trap door. In short....the FED GS and Gov is trapped. Trapped in long positions with NO buyers. I wonder how it will work out.....

CACOPHONY OF CONFIDENCE

As I sift through the last few days of noise I am left with the sense of an almost desperation that is developing behind the scenes of the Bull pump. That may seem counter to my prediction that they will try and run this to the ultimate fib of 1250 on the SnP, but it is not a contradiction....at least directly.

What I am seeing and hearing is an increased tempo of the drumbeat on the CONfidence song. It is as if there is a central command that is issuing an order to the troops of pundits and media to pump harder. Like a seasoned prostitute trying to achieve orgasm shouting to her hapless lover....harder harder HARDER. In fact as I listen to the outpouring of "positive" spin it makes me think that whatever the data really is telling Ben it must be very bad. Now understand we may not see that data, but they are looking at VERY accurate data. My guess is they are failing badly, but rather that allow natural forces to play out they will only continue inflating even harder.

Last night I listened to a Charlie Rose interview with Hillary Clinton. When discussing the economy a very telling change in her voice inflection made me take note. She was responding with and answer that emphasized restoring CONFIDENCE is IMPERATIVE if they are to be successful....you could tell that she meant this was their entire plan...which explains WHY we are in this continued PONZI.

Today I will look only for gap trades. Maybe LCC ...Maybe miners ....try and short oil DTO or SCO but that is risky.....gl gang

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

THE NIGHTLY WRAP

Well as expected they backed off the algos today and left the ponzi in neutral. Tomorrow should see better action. More than likely another green paint job, although I am net short. Just my pessimistic side. DTO was nice trade today. Remember my concern is that as they devalue the dollar further oil becomes a major liability for the Ponzi. You see ....you can lie on CNBC all day about how good unemployment is and how it affects productivity and that corporate profits will soar.....but guess what....when you put a barrel of 85 dollar oil up the consumers ass all hell begins to break loose....and I don't mean Barney Frank squeals of joy.

So my advice the boyz at GS and Ben is you are skating on thin ice here. Keep it up and g-d is going to have to visit and it won't be pretty as a friend of mine likes to say. The game "should" be to move this market downward for a couple of weeks before the end of the year paint job....but if recent history holds they may continue to ramp it. That is insane but what hasn't been so far. Just remember there are consequences guys.....and the law of nature always wins.

Play miners for gap trades otherwise this casino is CLOSED. Whacked out on Meth and burnt to the crisp. Just wait for the smoke to clear if your resources are limited. This pig is so overbought here that I can smell it from my computer. Watch dollar in am for tell. Don't forget GL gang

Oh BTW great video here just GREAT......
http://pragcap.com/marc-faber

GAME CONTINUES

Gotta keep the suckers at the roulette wheel. Look for some type of semblance of a "two way trade" today. This is NOT a two way market. Traders were destroyed months ago. The "fix" is in and it isn't leaving without a political disruption,black swan, or attainment of "natures breaking point". GS is firmly entrenched with full backing of the FED and Treasury. It is pure child's play really. Just look at last week...they had to be chuckling when they trotted out the Buffet news on the purchase of massive scrap iron. Risk appetite is back???? Don't make me laugh. That is risk?? For god's sake a railroad that can't be shipped overseas with no chance of anymore railroad's to ever start up to compete.

Timing just happened to occur as transports had broken key support. All planned. Sorry folks coincidences like that in this market are not coincidence.

Probably get some give back today as I implied above. Don't get your panties in a wad. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand this is going to the 61.8 fib and I will NOT give up on that prediction. So bend over when the next crash is called. Cuz that is where you are gonna get it.

Keep watchin LCC for a play. Oil holding too tight here though. Oil has to break for LCC to run. Dabbling in DTO SCO for trade. May trade miners on gaps today. GL Gang.

Monday, November 9, 2009

GOLDMAN SACHS AFTER HOURS

An intrepid investigative reporter inside GS headquarters just reported the after hours party that spontaneously erupted after the market closed. Several senior VPs had an open bar for the proprietary trading desks. No expense was spared. Aged scotch was flowing like a raging river.

Art Cashin, a renowned scotch afficianado was a special invited guests. When one particularly well lubricated GS trader remarked to Art that GS truly appreciated his early morning CNBC calls that the market was oversold and a pullback was expected....Art began yelling obscenities and a brief shoving match erupted. Unfortunately for Art he somehow lost his footing and wound up being helped to his feet by a couple of plain clothes security agents. After apologizing, Art was allowed to continue swilling the free fine scotch.

Lloyd Blankfire showed up and proposed a toast to his fine trading team and expressed his appreciation for their contribution. A surprise guest showed up to congratulate Blankfire and the troops ....Congressman Barney Frank. He stated that GS had paid back the TARP and that the bonuses were well deserved. Cheers rang out from the crowd and a raucous hip hip hooray ensued. Barney then interrupted the loud cheering to add that health care reform was important. A pregnant silence occurred and then Barney quickly added "fuck it" ..."I was kidding". Loud laughter errupted and the party quickly continued.

Barney and Lloyd then left together to tie up some details. Some murmurs were heard as a few individuals winked.

Eventually a senior VP announced the party was over and the Limos were waiting downstairs. Several party members were heard to shout LONG LIVE THE ALGO KILLERS....and LONG LIVE THE SHEOPLE.....After all We are doing God's work.
Disclaimer....some names and events were changed to protect the innocent. But since really no one is innocent...I guess that is a waste......happy trading gang

THE CASINO IS STILL OPEN

The guests on CNBC are spewing phrases like "tranparency" and "removing opacity" as I try to digest my breakfast. Somethings never change.

The dollar is dumping so the neon lights on the casino are bright and shining today.
So we have to answer the question is it safe. Hmmmmmmm.....no. But you probably can't stand not placing a bet. DONT. This is a chop shop day. Both sides butchered.

I will try to add to a very small DTO but only tiny. Not much plans to do anything heavy today.

My curiosity is whether LCC tries to retest 2.86 area with oil up today. Might try gap trade there....but don't bet on it.

Let's see how much steam they have. Dollar is just sick.....and so is this market...but that doesn't mean it won't get more sick.





Update...1120...Market continues to test resistance.....Ponzi is in full scale today..GS is killing the last of the shorts that entered a week ago.....when they are through today ....who knows maybe they will take it down....but only GS knows...it appears to be a distribution to me and not surprising the length. Make no mistake they can take it even higher here.

Oil ripping to HOD just a ponzie....
CVM saw action friday and this am.....but I closed what I had left....foiled again.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

HEAVEN CAN WAIT

Great post I stole from Binve on Danos...on the run gang enjoy...

Dan, this is another fantastic post! I did a large macroeconomic post in March looking at the long bond as well (MacroTrends, USDX, Oil, Gold, S&P500, etc.). I wrote this then:

"I personally believe we are in a Bond Bubble. If you look at a chart of long bond prices for the last 28 years (since 1981) the prices have been in a rising channel. This means (average) yields have also been dropping for 28 years. In December 30-year bond yield dropped to 2.6% (it is currently back up to 3.6%). So do I think long term bond investors will settle for these yields with the biggest inflation gun unleashed by the Fed to date (Quantitative Easing)? No …

…, But the answer is yes for now. I do not think the bond bubble will burst yet because the Fed is essentially putting a floor under the prices. Now this is good for short term bond prices, but this is very bad long term. This action is not stimulating aggregate demand from investors. This is sending an artificial signal to the market. At the same time, this will allow the Chinese and Japanese to sell back long term dated Treasuries (essentially to the Fed) and exchange them for commodities (which they are stockpiling). So while the Fed is pegging the yields artificially low (trying to keep interest rates low for the rest of the economy to try and spur consumer spending) I think there are many investors over the next several months / year who will unload. This bubble will stay inflated, probably longer than most will suspect. Bond prices may even rise once more. But once these highly inflationary actions (creating money out of think air to buy Treasuries and maintain low yields) are seen for what they are and the inflation works its way into the system in terms of rising prices (for goods and services), I think bond prices will collapse and yields go the only way they can: up. Because US government debt is NOT low-risk and at some point bond investors will demand higher interest to hold it."

I think my observation (This bubble will stay inflated, probably longer than most will suspect. Bond prices may even rise once more.) back in March fits perfectly with your Wave 2 pullback projection above. I think the crisis peak back in Dec of 2008 was the end the long bond's inexorable move up. I think we are now in the inexorable move down.

This is yet another reason why I am so bearish on the US Dollar for the long term (Thoughts on the US Dollar, Analysis of the USDX Long Term). A mass exodus from long term US Treasury Debt will mean a glut of Dollars being put onto the market. And the Treasury and Fed will continue debt monetization (especially of Treasury debt, that is this only way to keep the government running at this point. Foreign governments are hugely cutting back). The dollar will get a bounce just like Treasuries will. But I think both are relatively short lived. I think this long term chart of the dollar portends its future (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SrKHt2cvs...) and I think the far more positive correlation between the Dollar and the Equity markets also portend the direction for equities (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SrKH2CRXl...). Both are headed down.

Thanks again for a GREAT post! I always look forward to reading your insights and analysis!!

SWINE FLU UPDATE

Looks like they have found it in companion animals. This should provide another accelerant with a mutagenic component. Translated.....may make things worse in terms of spread and severity later in the season.
http://www.horsetalk.co.nz/news/2009/11/047.shtml
Also was rumored over the net that the Ukraine had a virulent strain that was being currently investigated..I have not confirmed that but it is not surprising if true.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/ukraine-swine-flu-outbreak-sparks-mutation-fears.html

Look at CBST as a peripheral play here. I have owned this in the past and it is an antibiotic that treats MRSA staph infections..These are found in some of the complicated swine flu pneumonias. I like the chart for any gap trades. At least in the near terms.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/171455-what-we-like-about-cubist-pharmaI am still seeing sporadic severe cases with no predisposing risk factors which makes this flu unique from others. In my opinion this is going to take a significant toll on us economically and personally ....especially to those families affected.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

I AM SO SO SORRY

I am sorry forgive me......no not me...I don't have enough space today to apologize for my screw-ups. No its John Reed ex Citigroup guru that managed the big merger creating too big to fail. He NOW knows that he fkd us. Give the guy his due I guess ..at least he is saying it. Maybe he thinks the torch and pitchfork crowd won't come after him.

Lawmakers were wrong to repeal the Depression-era Glass- Steagall Act in 1999, Reed said. At the time, he supported overturn of the law, which required the separation of institutions that engaged in traditional customer banking services from those involved in capital markets.
“We learn from our mistakes,” said Reed, who wrote an Oct. 21 letter to the editor of the New York Times endorsing a division of banking activities. “When you’re running a company, you do what you think is right for the stockholders. Right now I’m looking at this as a citizen.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=albMYVE7D578&pos=10

Sure nothing like a day late and a dollar short.

Speaking of short....Wonder what happens next week.....I guess they are going to ramp it up big time on us next week. Hehehehe. Well ....Hmmmmmmm.

One thing is certain though. I like gold for the long run. I don't give a shit what technicals or EW on this market say. The facts are they are still monetizing the debt and the dollar is shit. Sorry ladies. Its a fact jack. Sorry Jack. Lot of apologizing today. If you have any brains left after having the Algo monster beat the living hell out of you trying to trade this market then Puleeeze buy physical gold now and keep averageing in for next two months.....Do not believe me do your own due diligence but you might want to look at this article and its charts.

To give you an example here, the Chinese sovereign wealth fund ,which manages over $200 billion, has held already three teleconference calls with GATA—they wanted to know what GATA knows. We all know now that China has been accumulating gold for years; we all know now that China wants a new world reserve currency. This, of course, won't happen overnight, but it's quite obvious that the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency is not going to survive. Gold will continue to rise until something new has been put in place on the monetary front and I think we are years away from that. So what I'd say is. "Stick to it and stay the course.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/171533-gold-juniors-poised-for-historic-bull-run?source=hp_wc

Friday, November 6, 2009

BIG TROUBLE IN RIVER CITY

You really believe 10.2% unemployment is a green shoot ....then put this study in your pipe and smoke it.

Rank and Cornell University sociologist Thomas Hirschl studied data from a nationally representative survey of 4,800 American households interviewed annually from 1968 through 1997 by the University of Michigan. About 18,000 adults and children were involved.
Overall, about 49 percent of all children were on food stamps at some point by the age of 20, the analysis found. That includes 90 percent of black children and 37 percent of whites. The analysis didn't include other ethnic groups.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091103/ap_on_he_me/us_med_children_food_stamps

As this recession deepens this number overall may worsen. This country is in trouble. Not just any old trouble. The kind of trouble that portends a very difficult time in a true long term recovery from our half century binge. Like fat ticks we are about to drop from the gobal dog. As our politicians quarrel over their lobbyist's payoffs....our future is left to the scrap heap.

Good luck baby boomers this is going to be your retirement providers. NO attention to providing a constructive education and developing "real leaders". Only squabbling over the last morsel of flesh from the slaughtered sheople. Me Me Me Me . The mantra for the fat lazy populace. Well good luck idealogues on both sides. You have been used. The noise of the supposed two sided political system has ultimately destroyed even the future of the supposed well healed. I know I am one of the "well healed". But I am not sanguine like many of my counterparts. I know what is coming and Nature will clean the barn floor of all the waste. I can't avoid it and neither can you. Get off your pedestals and STOP voting democrat or republican.....They are all corrupt.....just vote for the independent.

Back to the market.......nice DTO day. Will try to trade it again next week. Take a look at GROW for a long term hold......not a trade. Miners still look tired. Almost to zero on my holdings. Watch LCC next week for trades if oil pulls back. Still have SH. Here is another Droke on gold article you need to look at . Gl

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1257527387.php

Thursday, November 5, 2009

GOTCHA

Like trapped rats on a sinking ship....bears caught in the Algo killing machine today as the bulls (GS ) get ready to feed on the carcass of their fresh slaughter. Sure only 520 thousand poor souls are losing their jobs this month but you have to remember that is positive for the market as major corporate profit is increased by the decreased payroll and increased productivity. Sorry mom if the kids are getting a little hungry but X-mas bonuses MUST be paid (128 BILLION) this year. After all this is probably the last time that the bankers collect. Once the reality of hell reaches the masses by the end of next year and all the shorts are destroyed.....its unlikely there will be bonuses at this level for a long long time.

Back to the market .....I hate dealing with the real economy...you know...hungry, homeless, crap medical care, kids scared for their future listening to those late nite discussions by fearful parents behind closed doors (those damn pesky kid ears). Ok the market....TRAPPED.... like fking rats. P2 P3 P4. WTF. DOES IT FKN MATTER???? Well ....not really. Nature has your back here shorties. We have a couple of numbers for the bulls to whack tomorrow. 1074 is a retrace resistance level and 1090 is the top of the right shoulder....both areas will likely break in my opinion if these tricky bastards are as good as I know they are....and the bears will be forced to cover......wouldn't that be typical.

I have some shorts and may try to add some at both levels for bounces but I recommend extreme caution trying to short....but I like hell.

Big numbers tomorrow bet they hit it on the number.....its all fudged but it really doesn't matter. Nature will clean all of this out eventually. Funny how stagflation works. Anyway here is my interest in the "GOTCHA". Look at the uncertainty created by this. Even if we manage to turn down at say 1092....wouldn't that be a great move.....flush the bears and then get um to reload for the possible HnS break at the neckline.....Just a total algo killing field....what the hell they've Gotcha.

I will still lean to the short side tomorrow and I will not add miners. Letum kill themselves trading themselves into oblivion. Holding some SH ....I can handle that short...tiny faz tiny dzz small dto. Sorry I am a degenerate gambler. Remember the recommendations that Joe and I give are for those that have the surplus money to GAMBLE ....BE AWARE...this is a casino. We are in a very dangerous position here.....short term ANYTHING can happen here. I have the income to play this game........and Joe can buy and sell me . So this is EXTREME caution. The best recommendation here is physical gold or cash right here....GL

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1257491220.php

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

KUNG PAO BULL

When is this bubble going to break? From this Clif Droke article I suspect soon. Beware China is NOT going to decouple (see CNBC retards). This economy is practicing a suicidal irrational policy that will implode in a nasty, viscious spiral. One thing is certain though.....they don't want our currency. But then we have rode that horse already. What no one knows because of China's media control(like we aren't) is how badly wounded is the economy now.... my suspicion is it is much worse than actual reports. Droke reports...

China’s voracious demand for commodities, particularly industrial metals like steel and copper, has been widely reported. The question, however, is whether China’s rising commodity inventories are being consumed or merely stockpiled. As Christopher McMahon observed in his recent Stock Futures & Options magazine article, “Year of the Ox: Is It a Bull for China?”, Chinese entrepreneurs and investors are stockpiling copper and other physical metals in a bold speculation on their country’s economic future. McMahon pointed out that in 2008, China imported 1.46 million tons of copper compared with 2.4 million tons in the first seven months of 2009.

This could be a signal that the "reinflation effort" is about to hit the "fatal fib of failure". At least a nice pull back in store. Don't forget to look at FXP for trades. And do NOT fall in love with the trade.

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1257088920.php

PUMP BEFORE THE DUMP

Looks like a sell the news day coming.....get the market up take some stops out and pad the payroll of the algo traders. Watta game.

If they buy the Fed news I will eat my hat. Better make sure I have that edible one on at 2:15. Anyway the trades were nice today in my miners I added the last three days. yum yum.

Added SH today. and will not make any other moves for now....at least that I want you to consider. (faz tiny)...uggg... Anyway good luck see ya later.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

WARREN WHIPS MARKET.......BULLSHIT

Another feeble effort by the PPT to put lipstick on this pig. We all know (or at least you should by now) that Warren is part of the PPT. Sound ludicrous? Then you have no idea what is going on in this market.

I like Buffet and I like Obama.......make NO mistake they are trying with all their might to pump life into a dead market and you better be on guard. This move by Buffet today is NOT a positive for the market and it will only give the market some more false news to keep us believing in the tooth fairy.

This is one helluva mess we are in and I must say the only safe thing to do in reality is pay debt down and buy gold. You buy gold in the previously mentioned miners and you buy actual physical gold bullion coins.

Today the dollar was up dramatically and gold was rallying exponentially. This is signalling you that the rest of the world is in a process. A process to distance themselves from the dollar. It will not happen in one day. So I have started buying miners, adding to my core......they may bring um down more, but I will go ahead and hold and add more.

This is bad for economy, bad for individuals and bad for our country. Instead of blaming and most of you have NO IDEA the reality of this because of your idealogy....dem vs rep...GET in reality this is no time to hesitate. Get into gold silver... AVERAGE in ..BUY on the dips gl to all

http://www.jrdeputyaccountant.com/2009/11/indias-imf-gold-purchase-is-one-more.html

Monday, November 2, 2009

MONDAY STREET NEWS

Word on the street is that we have some more downside ahead......GOOD. Bring those miners I own down to cheap cheap cheap. Sit tight here if you are conservative. If you are conservative and own no miners or gold then START ADDING. If you have a core then watch to see the dollar move today. Gold up premarket with dollar flat. That is VERY telling. Big money buying gold PERIOD. That is very telling for gold longer term. THE DOLLAR is done. Short term though we may get our bounce. Just don't get your hopes too high. A prudent investor has a 20 % position in miners if market goes green today.

Do not forget the LCC trade. Its seasonal and oil based. I like it for a side play but only for the true traders.

Reiterate the miners SSRI AUY SLW GG TLR GORO

Have fun today watch for gaps in all above and YRCW. Trade um only.

Don't forget DTO .....watch the dollar. I'm on the road see ya.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

SWINE FLU ADVICE

We are in a severe outbreak of the H1N1 where I live in the midwest. Right now the deaths have already begun with at least two deaths this week.....both will most likely go unreported since their nasal tests were negative........but they were the flu.

Be aware that tamiflu (the only acceptable treatment) is not effective after the first day or two of the onset of symptoms. So you will either need a prescription to keep on hand which I suggest you get from a doctor....or hope you can get into an ER or urgicare quickly if Symptoms of fever achiness headache dizziness sore throat develop.

I do now recommend the vaccine especially for high risk groups ...children and pregnant women asthma patients.

This pandemic hopefully will not intensify in morbidity but I am concerned it might.

Remember hand washing and avoiding close proximity to crowds of people ie airplanes.

If you think you have a fever or cold and you start developing shortness of breath that is ominous and requires an ER visit......NOT an urgicare or doctors office.

Also remember the flu tests they are doing are very unreliable if they are negative tests.