Sunday, January 31, 2010

S&P, Dollar, Gold, and Oil Analysis & Charts

Comprehensive analysis by Clive Maund in regard to favorite subjects. I still like EUO ( double short Euro) which started uptrend since November 25th ( low of 16.20, now it's trading close to 20) as long as Dollar strength continues:


Joe found this site in regard to SMN for those of you interested:

Saturday, January 30, 2010

The Ultimate Bubble and the Mother of All Carry Trades

Among the many opinions expressed by billionaire investor George Soros over the course of the 2010 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland was his statement on January 28 in an interview with Maria Bartiromo, host of CNBC's Closing Bell, that "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold." New York spot gold closed at $1085.40 down $1.80, but the price of gold is not as much about gold as it is about the value of currencies, particularly the US dollar.
Since new currency is created through lending activity, very low or 0% US interest rates and government deficit spending are fueling a US dollar carry trade and monetary inflation in the US dollar resulting in rising asset prices and global speculation. According to Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, “[The US dollar carry trade] is a massive issue; estimates are that it is $1.5 trillion, which is much bigger than Japan’s carry trade.” The close relationship of global commodity prices, particularly the gold price, to the value of the US dollar can be seen by comparing the changing value of the US Dollar Index to an inverted US dollar spot gold price chart. George Soros is certainly correct in that low interest rates contribute to the formation of asset price bubbles, but neither the value of the US dollar or the price of gold depend only on interest rates or on the US dollar carry trade. The view that a gold price over $1000 per Troy ounce represents the “ultimate bubble” ignores the ongoing devaluation of the US dollar, discounts risks associated with the stability of financial institutions, governments and currencies, and does not reflect confidence consistent with sound fundamentals.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Battle Of Titans

Theory or Fact, you decide:

From the article above:

"What I see as a possibility is that next week, if the bankers on Wall Street decide they don't want to be reformed in any way, they simply set the high frequency trading algorithm to sell, creating a huge negative bias for the direction of stocks. And they'll basically crash the market, and it will be a standoff. The market was down three days in a row, which it hasn't been since last summer. It's a game of chicken, till Obama says, 'Okay, maybe we need to rethink this.'"

But the President hasn't knuckled under yet.


Just another masterpiece today from Jesse....I see this piece as the essence of where we are right this critical juncture in world economic history. If the readers of this blog are as confused as most investors are then this will provoke even more embers for your fire. I cannot emphasize the profound risk our republic is exposed to in our current economic predicament. I am not pointing fingers but asking you to have insight. Enjoy the sample I copied. It deserves a standing ovation.

I try to resist the temptation to suspicion that statists are driving towards a unified command and control economy. I do not think that this agenda is the basis for formal discussions, except perhaps tangentially in the hallways of Davos. There is an impetus to power, and more power, that can create the same effect in groups of men without the need for formal discussions. Financial engineers and bankers will alway seek more control and more power, because they are seeking to master something that is a portion of human nature, that does not lend itself easily to linear manipulation. As their plans fail, they need to keep expanding to prevent a collapse and their personal humilitation. This is inherent in what they do. This is how dictatorships are created; they seem to be the easier path to inability, if not incompetency.
But it is obvious that the theme since the 1980's at least has been the will to power, the knocking down of laws and regulations, to allow the most powerful to do what they will, to take an even greater share of the riches of the world, to the disadvantage of the many. And my hypothesis is that the global reserve currency is a key plank in this agenda.

Perhaps this is such a perennial theme that is almost a tautology to remark about it, like a boy who first discovers the wonders of love, and thinks himself a Balboa discovering new oceans. Perhaps this boy is just discovering in a more profound way the deep roots of the darker side of human nature, the basis of evil: pride, greed, and deceit.

But there is an ebb and flow in the tides of men, and the rise and fall of nations, ideas, and fundamental values like freedom, justice, honour, duty, mercy, equality, and hope. And we are certainly at the cusp of a trend change, a trend in place since the second Great War, and the dog is not barking.

The game is afoot.


Sorry ...I can't resist those cheap headlines. Don't be too deluded by the noise as mentioned yesterday. Continue to pay attention to the dollar move. 81 still should get hit.

AUY and many of the miners are nearing tradable bottoms. I have a heavy core position now. May take a hit but that is ok...still have cash to trade and buy super heavy if they correct to the 81 on the dollar.

Joe is still heavy cash and gap trading.....smartest move so far.

Oil still has downside room and DTO is probably a good play ....just remember the easy money was made on DTO when oil was 84. Now you must play very small.

Junior miners are murdered.....VGZ..

Market will give you gaps so be aware and play the miners on

Thursday, January 28, 2010


Should be just another day at the office. No revelations to shake the market today. Its only about how far GS is going to take the market down before the squeeze. If you think I can tell you then you will be sorely disappointed. However I can tell you that there will be NO straight down this year and obviously no straight up like last year. We bounced off the bottom SPX trend line so it is still possible that this smelly market moves to my 61.8 fib....but for now the strengthening dollar and sentiment changes makes me suspicious that they may have topped us out.

Gold trade remains vulnerable if we go through a muti-month dollar strengthening. 84 seems to be a possibility but 81 is my target area which makes EUO ( short Euro) a good buy for a while.
Miner stocks may have a ways to go here but my core is fully loaded now and only a further dollar move to 81 gets my core (longer term buy) to increase. Be patient and watch to see what they give us. Watch the gap trades and beware of the treacherous waters right now.

TBT is another oldie to look at for some of you. Eventually this thing explodes.

DTO position is small and may add small if they push green on oil today. Premarket was strong for oil but weakened going towards open

The president's speech as expected is a non-event for the market ...We are still owned. And when we wake up tomorrow and the next day.....we will still be owned. So for those of you that enjoyed the diminution of your constitutional freedoms during the last 9 years in the name of preserving our way of may want to consider WHOSE way of life that phrase refers to. gl and have fun.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Charles Nenner: Stick With Cash, Bond Investors in for "Big Trouble"

DTO continues to do well, what a great buy at 60 for those who continue to hold. If you are not as good as joe when it comes to gap trading and shorting, stay away from this market and remain mostly in cash.

The droves of retail investors who’ve recently fled to the safety of bonds are setting themselves up for "big trouble," according to market timer Charles Nenner. He predicts the recent rally in bond prices is only temporary and will soon reverse in a major way. Echoing statements he made here in October, Nenner firmly believes "for next 30 years rates will only go up" so get out while you still can.

So what should you invest in?

Nenner admits there aren't many good choices for a long term investor right now.

-- Gold: He warns those concerned about inflation are premature so don't "get too enthusiastic about gold." According to his research, gold will put in an important long-term high in the next few weeks. Looking a few years out, gold may once again rally to new highs but investors could get burned in the meantime.

-- Dollar: Cash is king if your main concern is capital preservation. Nenner, contrary to the consensus, thinks the dollar is on the rise having "already put in an important low."

Watch the video:,tbt,gs,uup,gld,Gdx,spy&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Scared of Falling Gold Prices? Heheeee!

From Anon:

The banking houses privileged to meet with the Rothschilds to set the world price of gold are known as “the Club of Five”. In 1958, they were : N.M. Rothschild, Samuel Montagu, Mocatta and Goldsmid, Sharps Pixley, and Johnson, Matthey.

I know this has changed over the years, but that the Rothschilds family likely still controls the entire process and is at the heart of it, regardless of what happened in 1984, since they have been doing this for 200+ years.

In any case, as long as these same greedy DNA-mutated emotionally-fractured infantized adults are in control, I don't hold out much hope for gold. Silver and other metals, maybe. I think what we'll see is the collective mainstream media shunning gold as a safety net, the coordinated manipulation of prices... which will result in the collapse of the secondary price market reflected in the premiums... a double price collapse in gold brought on by the ignorance of the commom man.

Silver may do better, but I think the ultimate goal is to cut off all exits and steal the wealth of the US middle class, and these people are ruthless and almost religiously inspired in their zeal.

This yr's reasons for Gold to fall OR rise, Place your bets you greedy gamblers,heheeeeeee!

Reasons for Gold to fall:

The stockmarket has been climbing without any improving fundamentals long enough to be due for a significant correction and the gold price has followed the DOW down 51% of the time in the last half of 2009 (gold stocks followed the DOW down 71% of the time).
China has indicated that they plan to begin monetary tightening.
There is hot money right now in gold that will likely flee now that it has stopped going up.
The “dollar carry trade” could unwind, removing many gold hedge fund positions.
If the government is unable to print more money than is being lost in the economy due to loan payoffs, defaults and decreased money velocity then our economy will tilt again towards deflation. Even if you believe that the government will eventually be successful in creating enough inflation, it is not impossible that they fall behind the curve for a while if things start to happen quickly, resulting in a temporary loss in gold prices.
JP Morgan and the other big banks seem to be able to create nearly infinite amount of short positions to keep the price down and the political will to stop that seems to be largely absent.
The amount of paper gold substitutes such as GLD is arguably much greater that the actual amount of real gold available, causing dilution of the investment demand in the same way as when a company issues a large new set of shares.
Gold is under a downward sloping trendline and well under its 50 day moving average.
Gold stocks (GDX) are under a downward sloping trendline, well under its 100 day moving average and is now lower than its December 2009 lows.
Dehedging from gold companies may be almost over now.
As we saw in the Fall of 2008, Gold (and certainly not Gold Stocks) do not necessarily benefit and can in fact be substantially harmed by safe haven flows in a panic.

Reasons for Gold to rise:

Central banks around the world continue to print money without end in their attempt to keep the financial system solvent. For example in December alone, Freddy and Fanny were given an infinite checkbook by the government.
None of the excess that caused the financial crisis appear to have been solved:
Banks are still massively overleveraged.
Banks know that if they take on risk they will be bailed out, so they are still taking on huge risks.
Unemployment is still skyhigh with no indication as to where any new jobs might come from to bring it down again.
The is a huge overhang of homes that are technically in default but that are being held out of the market by the banks.
Alt-A loans and Options ARMS are resetting this year and they are bigger than subprime.
The government will be unable to substantially raise interest rates for the forseable future, leaving us in a net negative interest rate environment.
Companies that hold huge short positions risk a default if counterparties demand physical delivery of their metal. There are some indications that this could occur in 2010 (in fact there are some rumours of this occurring already right now, with huge premiums being offered in return for cash settlement).
Central bank selling has turned into net central bank buying.
Many large gold companies have cleared large portions of their hedge book, indicating that they expect higher gold prices.
Contrarian investing disagrees with most of the articles in the mainstream media say gold is overvalued and going to fall.


Senator Jim Bunning on CNBC this morning revealed that he had gone down to the FED and read E mails regarding AIG decision and found that Bernanke's staff had recommended NOT bailing out AIG. His pointed assertion that Bernanke's decision was not only questioned by us but by his own staff reveals a Fed Chairman that was coming apart at the seams. You can't put the genie back in the bottle but this is where our country and its future was destroyed.

Don't be too concerned as I said....this is all water under the bridge and there is NOTHING you can do about it.

Market shoul grind up some shorts soon so be careful. As stated I am hoping for a nice dollar strengthening overall but it won't occur overnight. Keep some cash on standby for a final low on miners.

My small DTO position I bot yesterday looks good.. Oil should break 70. But don't short gang

Nothing extraordinary were provided nice gaps on all the miners...If we go blood red for the 1085 area tomorrow then you will get your chances.....REMEMBER FOMC 2:15 tomorrow and BO speaks at 9:00PM....Pay attention

Monday, January 25, 2010

Why I Hope Gold Falls to $1,000

An Article By Jeff Clark:

I had lunch with a reader at a recent conference, and while talking about one of my favorite subjects – gold stocks – I asked why he was invested so heavily in them. “Greed,” he said bluntly and with little hesitation. I appreciated the honesty.
Let’s be frank: I’m here to make money, and so are you. And that’s why I hope gold falls to $1,000 again.
Let’s say Bob has taken our advice and has been storing cash. I’ll use $1,000 as an example. If Bob buys Yamana Gold ( AUY) now, he’d get about 93 shares as I write (at $10.73 per share).
Now, let’s say gold drops to $1,000, about a 10% fall from here, and due to its leverage, AUY sells off by a 2-to-1 margin, meaning 20%. So with that same $1,000, Frank, who’s waited for the downturn, buys 116 shares at around $8.58. Thus, instead of owning 93 shares at $10.73, he owns 116 shares at $8.58.
When Frank sells, he doesn’t just make the difference between $8.58 and $10.73 (an extra 25%), he also makes 125% on the extra 23 shares he owns if Yamana doubles in a couple years, which I expect it to. So two years from now, Bob would have $2,000, but Frank would have $2,500 because he bought more shares and at a lower price. Frank makes 25% more than Bob on the same dollar investment simply by buying when gold and gold stocks fall in price.
I don’t know if we’ll see $1,000 again or not, or if Yamana will fall that low, but I would point out that corrections in the gold price can range as high as 20% (2008 notwithstanding), so a further sell-off in price would not be out of the ordinary. A 20% correction from gold’s peak at $1,212.50 on December 2 would equal $970. That’s not necessarily a prediction, but it shows you that price is certainly possible.


This guy is worth the read.....from the skf board on a question regarding the "power" and changing ourselves individually or the power will continue unabated...

My point and then this guy's view:

Ponzi will not resolve until we stop blaming the "Power Structure" (which I luv to hit) alone as the culprit and try to FIX ourselves FIRST. We as INDIVIDUALS have to recognize that each of us have to make sacrifices as individuals....our individual and therefore collective greed allows the "Powere" to remain. Until we as indivduals change and you know how, then the power will not adjust.That is the purpose of the debate. Participating in the market is going along with ponzi which I am not strong enough to avoid, damn truth hurts, especially when it comes to trying to be HONEST with ourselves. We all complain on the board about the "Real Power" What percentage of us if given the power and money would do the right thing and give up the power and the money. Hint the answer breaks 99 to 1. Its human nature and thats why the country is kaput....can't change the greed factor. We are so good at lying to ourselves and blaming the real issues on power structure without an attempt to see how our own greed and selfishness contributes to the entire problem. We continue supporting those whom in reality we think are going to provide for our greed. A wise man once said, " You are either part of the problem, or part of the solution". We have convinced ourselves we deserve great life and have forgot the difference between real NEED and WANT.

That's a very interesting question that cuts through all the clutter and captures the very essence of what it is to be human. I'm going to be brutally honest and tell you precisely how I feel about such complex matters, and I can assure you, my feelings are echoed throughout the hallowed halls of power centers throughout this land.

Everyone knows that absolute power corrupts absolutely. What's missing from that hackneyed phrase is the reason that people are so easily persuaded to cross over to the "dark side": They hold the vast majority of the people around them in utter contempt.

They look around them and see a nearly degenerate collection of toothless idiots and slackjawed yokels who are begging to be manipulated and used, mostly because they themselves believe they are inferior. They see inner city kids who would rather wear their jeans around their knees and waddle aimlessly around town than better themselves and change their circumstances. They see college kids who rack up $100K+ of debt for educations that are still woefully lacking and yet they're willing to toil under the yolk 60 hrs a week for $40K/year, and ask to lap up more because their superior tells them what they're doing is "important" (forget that it's only essential to enriching the man). They see punk ass metrosexuals who think they're above getting their hands dirty and prissy little snot nose princesses who cannot complete a sentence without, like, you know, saying, like, you know at least three times. They see a country full of people who think they're entitled to everything but strive for nothing.

It's easy to hold these people in contempt. Have you ever seen an Alaska musher beat a dog mercilessly? I have, and it would appear that the more the dog cowers under the whip, the harder the musher beats the dog for the contempt he feels for the defenseless animal. So it would seem that the upper crust deems the American people unworthy of better treatment because the more injustice they dish out, the more the American people cower and hide.

Most people need to justify their inhuman behavior somehow - any way possible in fact. True sociopaths may not need to couch their self-serving behavior in a higher rational, but by in large, most people are naked without the cover of SOME justification for true self-indulgence.

Market stalling for the next move....GS snipers awaiting a hard target so I established my positions for tomorrow with tiny DTO position. Let'm rip. My hope is the dollar strengthening move gets a reprieve for some miner scalps.....but I can assume a resumption of the market takedown remains in order. Doesn't matter. Its a game and out guessing GS is a roll of the dice here. My guess is we see 1120s this week thats about

Sunday, January 24, 2010


Traders year indeed....Don't get caught in the noise game gang. I may not be the best fact I may not be close...but to survive this mess it will help to make some moves this year as we have indicated in previous posts. My core miner holding is robust now so I am fat and happy. I may get to add on further miner weakness this week but it will be cautious with gap trades to. Here is a nice analysis to read and this sight has been very good. Here is an excerpt..........

My published stocks analysis expired at the end of December that had called for a rally that targeted 10,500 into the end of December, before a significant correction began, my focus since has been on completing the Inflation Mega-trends ebook (overdue by 8 days) which includes stock market trend implications as well as many others as we head for high inflation for at least several years if not longer.

The 3 day plunge is the strongest price / time action since the birth of the stealth stocks bull market in March, my analysis implication has listed the size of the corrections to date as a guide to what to expect during 2010, therefore this current decline is strong in terms of price / time change that is suggestive of FURTHER declines even if the stocks bounce from current very oversold levels, this is inline with my overall scenario of a sideways trend for 2010 for western stock markets which my earlier analysis (UK Interest rate forecast) alluded to.

Nevertheless this so far is still a correction which means we are STILL in a stocks bull market the probability for which at the very least favours a 2010 sideways trend with an upward bias. Instead we will soon see the perma-bears appear again on CNBC to claim the Bear Market Rally is OVER ! Much as I reacted to the crescendo of crash calls last October (Stock Market Crash Again?). A 60% gain in 9 months is NOT a bear market rally, it IS a bull market, even if the performance of the indebted western stock markets is to be poor during 2010, I do expect emerging market stocks to again significantly out perform during 2010. More on in this in an in depth analysis this coming week (newsletter).

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Interesting Weeks Ahead

The potential for the dollar to mount a very strong rally increases with the passage of each, especially in light of the recent negative developments in Greece. A breakdown in Greece could trigger a domino effect by first affecting other weak countries such as Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. A strong rally in the dollar by default is going to lead a strong pull back in the Euro and this could in turn lead to a much stronger than expected pull back in Gold.

However, the bright spot is that a strong pull back in Gold should be viewed as a tremendous buying opportunity if it comes to pass. The long term trend of the dollar is still down and is not likely to change but it could produce a lot of acid for those betting against in the short to intermediate time frames. The long term in the Gold is up and the pattern is projecting much higher prices in the future, though in the short term the volatility is going to give short term traders a headache. The Euro on the other hand is the one where potentially things could fall apart. Several European members are in trouble and thus one has to be open to the potential that the Euro could fall apart. The key word to focus on is potential.

The dollar is very close to hitting a critical point; it needs to close above 78.50 on a weekly basis. A weekly close above 78.50 will be the first sign that the dollar is getting ready to potentially mount a much stronger rally. If Gold trades below 1080 for 2-3 days in a row, it could lead to a test of $1030 an ounce and the 980-990 ranges. Last week proved to be very profitable for those who shorted Oil and Gold miners, those who bought and held DTO around 60 OR shorted PBR made a killing. Stay sharp and nimble.

Friday, January 22, 2010


I think the Reid news after hours makes this a cinch and should provide the "excuse" for the rally day next week...I like a tradeable pull back to the 1120 1130 area next week......after that you are on your own....hehe. Sorry couldn't help that.

Did anyone notice the strength of the miners today on huge volume in a blood red market. I hope you know what that signals...Yup....we are close to a nice intermediate to longer term trade here. Still may have some pain longer term but I loved that action for shorter term trade..

This year as advertised is going to be a traders year. Do not stray out of the miners too oftern the water is dangerous. All of the ballyhooed CNBC stocks are traps this year so be careful.

Distinguish mining stocks gang....SWC and PAL are not gold so trade on gaps intraday. I don't like buy and hold on them. If I get stuck on AUY JAG GG SLW SSRI EGO ANV or VGZ....I can sleep at night. After all it beats just sleepin on fiat.

Immred bump.....

Where Kli took a position and you covered was the 1st entry point for gold 1080. Not too confident that will hold considering this is the final low wave before they start reflating aggressively. Same with watching the critical S&P 1107 level break you then got a hot knife through butter down to the 1090 level. Next is 1075 on S&P, analyze has 1077, just a game to see if that gets enough bears and fear into politicians, I don't believe it will and we could see final bottom for this fake out around 1015-1020 before we resume the road to the 200 week moving average, because I don't believe 1150 was it.

Someone mentioned vgz, if you want to trade fine, I never touching that POS again, held it for years management seems to really go nowhere fast, take a look at their 2 year chart pathetic.

Stick with AUY, GG, my personal tracking favorite is GFI. As for oil avoid ETF, stick with stocks personal favorites have been PBR and PTR , petro brasil and petro china; if you believe in the reflation is coming and China is not down and out as Rick Ackerman states, and long entry opportunity is coming up. Reason I am mention oil is it is slowly starting to sync with gold regardless of short term demand.,ss,m26-12-9&c=

Also the reason I am telling people to be careful is many people are confusing buy and hold with what is being presented here which are swing trades, gap trades, and short term momentum trading.

As for SWC, unless you are a very experienced trader like Joe, who can read the slightest change in short term direction on the most obscure stock and reposition quickly, stay out and stick with gold/silver miners and foreign national oil compannies, avoid US companies.

Can stress enough for new readers, if you trade you better fully understand technical trading charts, especially moving averages (convergence & divergence), bollinger bands, rsi and stochs, macd, obv. Oh and avoid the EWI bs of P3 is just around the corner, only thing around the corner is who is going to get hosed next and you want to be on the giving and not receiving end.

Hope that was helpful to your readers Kli and Joe.

Great Trading day For SWC & PAL

Very Nice trading gap today. Here is from Joe:
For those of you playing SWC and PAL, keep your eye on physical price of palladium:

Palladium price is at - 14dma = 434.83 / 50dma 388.04

The metal is bouncing near it's 14 day moving average, if it falls below the 14 dma average, the next resistance will be near 408, then 388.

As far as playing SWC, as long as the overall market stays down, the best way to play SWC is to play the gaps daily which means day trade the gap it gives you. Today the gap was between 11.50 and 12.30, at the open it was taken down to 11.50 and went up to 12.38 before retracing. In a down market SWC during the day drops about 0.70 to 0.80 initially, then fills the gap during the day before closing at initial low. Play it accordingly in order to minimize loss risk.

As far as Gold stocks, market spoke today. Physical Gold was down, overall market took a beating but my favorites JAG and ANV finished in green. GG finished the day slightly down. This is a telling sign. Gold stocks took a beating initially when overall market down turn started this week and today it seems they reached the bottom.


Your dog and pony show yesterday isn't flying with this sheeple. We know who you are in bed with. Now we are supposed to believe you have suddenly recieved religion? Hehehehe.....TOO FKN FUNNY. So let me get this straight...after your dog and pony show we are supposed to believe that you have turned on your masters after hooking your horse to them for the past year and a half. That suddenly you have recieved religion? A revelation? I don't think least I remain supremely doubtful. Fool me once shame on you .... fool me twice shame on me.

As a citizen you should be outraged by the supreme courts decision yesterday that was masked by the Presidents dog and pony show. That was a clear signal the you are completely ruled. The arrogance of the cabal is unbounded. and I are powerless.

We can protest this in our own way though. Don't use credit cards when you can use cash. Decrease you expenditures and waste. Save with bullion gold and silver. generate your own electricity. Decrease gas consumption. ie. DONT FEED THE PONZI

Back to our Ponzi.....the market. Watch today for an upside trade SnP right on the 50MA.$SPX

I still think oil has a way down too....BUT it also is in a key turn be cautious with DTO ...the easy money was oil at 84.$wtic

I don't like the short bus today and will try to trade the miners if we gap down a lil....At least a bounce to gang

Thursday, January 21, 2010


There is trouble in river city. BIG TROUBLE. A rock and a hard place kind of trouble. Ya know when you told that lie as a child (or in this case an adult) and then had to lie again to keep from getting caught on the first lie and then again to keep yourself from getting caught on the second lie and then....well you get the point. This administration has that problem in the jobs numbers.

Many of you are well aware that the jobs numbers are manipulated to the point where they are virtually laughable, but herein lies the dilemna. As these numbers have been artificially painted to make them appear to be improving slightly and/or less bad than they really are by using seasonality factors and simply outright issue that they feared arises.

When this strategy was initiated it was part of an overall strategy to restore CONfidence to the market. We already had a large stimulus passed and money in the pipeline. We know how Monetization and QE have impacted the market (the barometer of confidence). But now the problem with the real economy and jobs is going to put a little damper on the party. Here is why. For the president to throw more money through stimulus onto the real economy we must have EVIDENCE that the economy requires congress to pass it.

Yes there is a problem. Our numbers are improving. So why pass more stimulus. Yes. So you see there well be a shift this year to reporting actual numbers showing problems in employment for more stimulus. You know what that means......more money in the pipeline. Employment is horrific and going to get worse ...much worse than the BS number we have of 10%. I think you know how to plan for this. This year will be a traders year but overall they have no choice. GL

The twins no longer derive their sustenance from Nature's founts - in short," said Mr. Micawber, in one of his bursts of confidence, "they are weaned . . ." Dickens

Pardon my tardiness.....whata day..kaboom.....hope those in cash are nibbling on miners but Joe is convinced they are going beware...several are getting very tasty JAG and ANV another point maybe... I added...50%cash is a rant that you need to read.. For those who are not in miners, watch and see if physical Gold holds $1075 an ounce for re-entry into miners, if not then 1030, 995/1000 would be the next entry point for miners. I would not recommend shorting individual miners unless if you are as experienced as joe.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010


You're gonna get the horn from the stag so bend over. There is a 95% probability we get a serious dose of essential goods and services inflation as assets deflate and our economy collapses. If you realize this danger you can take action to protect yourself and family now. Its starting here and in other developed economies. Here is an excerpt from an article adressing this.....

THEY WERE SUPPOSED to avert depression. The Bank of England continues to tout their "success".

But it looks like the best that money-printing and zero rates might now deliver is '70s-style stagflation, plus '30s-style wealth destruction and a glacé cherry on top.

Giving Britain its "stag" – as in stagnation – are economic output, wages, capital investment, real estate prices and now, perhaps, a return of the bear market in London shares. Whether or not GDP shows an uptick for the end of 2009, this is the deepest British recession since 1931. Business investment sank to a 6-year low on the last quarterly data, and the number of people out of work for 12 months or more has risen by two-thirds since Northern Rock was bailed out, breaking the dam of bail-outs worldwide in late 2007.

Stepping in with a very 21st century version of drowning, not waving, "The number of people in part-time employment increased by 99,000 to reach a record high of 7.71 million" between Sept. and November '09, says the Office for National Statistics. "There were 1.03 million employees and self-employed people working part-time because they could not find a full-time job...the highest figure since records for this series began in 1992."

Morla bump on health care bill (Insurance Bailout Bill)
Another home run, Kli! Unfortunately the ball hit me right in the mouth.. I was just daring to hope that perhaps our political system was finally so broken (or fixed) that the government might flail on it's back like a turtle for a while.

If they ram this through anyway that will scare me, because phony finance reform will be right behind it. Hell that could be even easier since Hungry Hungry Bankers has been a guilty pleasure of the republicans. One or two will probably wander over for that party, maybe even bring their own marbles.

And yeah none of this has much to do with whatever jerk got elected in Mass. We need third and fourth political parties to get this back in hand. With only two directions of motion, like a train we are unable to steer our course. We can hurtle out of control in one direction or another or we can halt progress entirely.

More political parties bring more to the table than just their own ideas, their very presence would force the existing parties to change their ways to compete.

What I fear is that modern conservatives are so turned-off to the idea of universal health care (and btw conservatives these dem plans are not "universal") that even if we get an intelligent party in power they won't be able to give us the single-payer system we actually need. That system of course would be BAD for fat-cats so not even a democrat would dare try it.

Also BTW conservatives the dems aren't socialists they're corporatists. Like the republicans, but sneakier. So sneaky in fact you all think they're socialists. Socialist like a fox!

After all the repubs had fear on their side all 8 years, ask Machiavelli you can get away with damn near anything when people are afraid. The dems need to funnel money to the wealthy more discreetly because they got stuck with "hope" instead of fear. Regulating away the competitors of their economies-of-scale sugar-daddies of choice as an example. Or perhaps toothless "regulations" that act as assurance to said industries that no real oversight is coming anytime soon, so loot away.

Corporatism is like socialism but the money flows in the other direction. Instead of rob the rich give to the poor (socialism) this is rob EVERYONE (even the less rich) and give to the rich.

Do you want them to rob you or do you want us to help them rob you? Some choice..


WTF Cares. This is all red meat for the sheep. Sorry if you think this is anymore than the real power letting you think you have a voice. LOOK WHO YOU JUST ELECTED TO THE SENATE SHEEP! This schmuck is a country club schmuck owned by the party that gave you 100:1 leverage and CDOs.. Too Rich. As you lean back this morning and pound on your chest sheople...remember what it is you feel getting pounded up your back side. Just amazing how short our memories are. Oh well if the noise soothes you then enjoy.

We needed health care reform but there was never going to be reform. In fact....I expect the current bill from the senate to pass......just watch. It is a give away to the insurance companies. A complete taxpayer sellout er..rape. Look at it this way Bush engineered the biggest taxpayer giveaway in history with the Medicare Drug bill. That was a no bid give away to Big Pharma. So you tell me who this bill benefits. I assure you that the PTB is just fine with the bill. Republicans have a new sheriff in the senate now and to show you who really runs the country I bet this bill goes through. the game at hand since the former is a joke. SSRI had news its CEO resigned I had a position and will dump half. JAG should fall further. Miners may be in pullback now.....will wait and hope. DTO looks good....added small at close..hope it sooths my SSRI loss today.....futures coming back slowly now.....have fun gl.

bump aware of this issue traders don't get sidetracked by the noise about the dollar...

Contrary to what the " so-called gold experts" tell you, a falling dollar is bad for gold stocks because mining costs go up. What the gold miners need is a strong dollar with the price of gold over $1000 to keep their mining cost down and margins higher.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010


Breaking news on CNBC. Yes I watch CNBC. I have to know where the herd is. Steve Leisman was blowing Ben on the AM slot. Steve was "fawn eyed" holding his charts showing there were 12 days before Ben's confirmation expired. I believe he broke down and cried briefly. Ummmm no....satire again. Ben will be easily confirmed but the Senate is showing their protest to the "real power" by dragging their feet.

Now back to useful informationa and of course....fed related. One must try to understand the limits of Fed policy and their monetary limitations. The following excerpt and article are very useful and provide an opinion that I share......

It is clear that the Fed's plan is to keep its interest rate target close to zero until there is a significant improvement in the US employment situation. It's not likely that there will be any improvement in the US employment situation over the next 12 months, so does this mean that the Fed Funds rate will remain near zero for at least another year?

Whether it does or not will largely be determined by inflation expectations. As the "Austrians" have always known and as the "Keynesians" discovered to their amazement during the 1970s, a high rate of unemployment will not prevent the prices of goods and services from rising in response to rapid money-supply growth. Rising prices lead to rising inflation expectations, and once inflation expectations exceed a certain level it will become necessary for the Fed to hike its targeted interest rate regardless of what the employment situation happens to be at the time. The reason is that if the Fed refuses to boost the overnight interest rate in the face of rising inflation expectations, then long-term interest rates -- including interest rates on adjustable-rate home mortgages -- will begin to accelerate upward.

That is, in the absence of a meaningful increase in employment the start of the Fed's next rate-hiking campaign will be determined by inflation expectations. The question, then, is: how will we know when inflation expectations have exceeded the level at which a Fed rate hike will be deemed necessary? We suspect that the 'tipping point' will be a decisive break below the support line (the base of the multi-year topping formation) drawn on the following monthly T-Bond chart.

Immred bump comment
the destruction of the middle class wealth is going along just fine with the monetization and reflation and transfer of overleveraged crap assets to their portfolio. There is no "MUST" raise rates, there is only try and reinflate the Ponzi until it bursts. Remember WIN? (Nixon's whip inflation now slogan along with pay freezes, unemployment, high prices, now coupled with continued low short term rates by the Fed. The Fed does not control long term rates alone like short term, so this year you may still see zero short term rates and possibly 4% to 5% on the long end. You won't see double digit long term rates until gold hits 2-5k, and the dollar is toast still some time off.

“But Tom Sawyer he hunted me up and said he was going to start a band of robbers, and I might join if I would go back to the widow and be respectable.” ....satire.

Monday, January 18, 2010


We at least expected more than a 6% correction but we didn't get it. I am obviously not an insider that is equipped to explain why and Clif Droke has more knowledge than I and offers some insight on then and now and what we are going to be doing this year.

I look back now and actually believe the ponzi could not afford to make the market appear more of a two way trade last year. Just look at the volume as the down moves would accelerate. That becomes very expensive to reverse and these boyz aren't in to giving money away. The object last year was to provide an illusion of the market recovering. So taking it down with volume accelerating requires some fuel to turn around. Very telling.

Cliff's article more importantly offers us insight into strategy looking forward this year....I am in agreement that trading this year will become the over-riding story by years end. If you don't have confidence in your strategy or what you are buying .....stay out of this market. Just buy physical gold and bend over its coming.

Sunday, January 17, 2010


That is only one descriptive phrase in Ron Paul's description in this magnificent speech. I guess an old man that has been marginalized can get away with telling the truth. None of the other Washington retreads will. Watta bunch of cowards our country is governed by. This speech says it all and I encourage you to listen to it in its entirety.....especially the last one third.....especially if you consider yourself a flag waving chickenhawk.

Now for the real reason we join together for comunion this glorious sunday.....making money in the ponzi. Friday sets up nicely for the trend but that means nothing. As stated in earlier posts this year is NOT going to be a repeat of last year. This is the year that good traders can make money in this market if they can understand the ponzi.. I like the miners going into the next 2 years but I warn you it will NOT be a straight up proposition. You will have a strain imposed on your positions to shake you out. It is the way this game works. You will have pronouncements made virutally hourly on CNBC that the real economy has made the necessary turn for actual healing.

We will hear a constant drumbeat for real recovery this year. You will know as market corrections occur to go long when you hear days where Kramer and other CNBC pundits pronounce that things are worse than thought. Beware this is an organized attempt to keep our ship afloat. In some ways you have to root for them to be successful but I cannot be sanguine in this regard.

With the contributors that read this blog and comment you will find pearls of wisdom that may sustain you through this coming ordeal.

Do your own research and be aware that EGO ANV SSRI SLW AUY are some of the stocks to watch. Another junior I want you to be aware should be an evential superstar is VGZ. PAL SWC...on the paladium front.

Finally remember the terrible suffering in Haiti.....give gang

Friday, January 15, 2010


I couldn't resist making a post about this tonight. We get caught up so frequently speaking in awe of Goldman Sachs that we forget some of their past "Special moments". I could post a lot of them but they aren't really worth the effort. The point is be aware they are fact....they are incredibly good...but you have to be aware of their game. In 2007 I had been telling anyone that listened for over a year that things were going to crash and crash badly. It had really come together for me in mid 2007 when I could connect all the dots. The final straw was my discovery as the market really began to shake in late 2007 that there were over 1.2 quadrillion in derivatives worldwide. I realized then how the ponzi had been able to do it. How they had leveraged the mortgages into a nightmare of worthless securities and how our country was just one big fraud. I began shorting the financials and real estate knowing 2008 would be a disaster. Larry Kudlow and Kramer has their meltdowns screaming for Ben to reinflate the ponzi and lower rates.

But then of course there were a host of "special people" that were trotted out on a daily basis to assuage the masses and try and keep a cork in the buble. I think the one that stood out was the Jan 2008 prediction of Goldman Sachs venerable "Predictor in Chief" ...Abbey Joseph Cohen. She was their perrenial bull. I had recalled her famous "BEAR CALL" in 2000 when she recommended going to something like 10% cash before the market crash....hehehe. Back to 2008...her prediction was soooo far off base that it borders on read and listen

Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, says the U.S. economy will rebound in mid-2008, but the next few months will be bumpy.

In an interview with CNBC, Cohen explained why she remains bullish, how the recovery will look -- and what she foresees for the financial sector.

She says the S&P 500 will hit 1,675 by the end of 2008, a gain of 14.5 percent over 1,463 at market close Tuesday

The point of this is believe your own self and always question the motives of the information giver......

Next ...I want to respond to a question I am getting more and more to buy gold if you have less than 10K......split it between silver 1oz bullion coins and gold 10z gang


Perhaps a slight exaggeration, but I like the sound of it. As we all debate the course of the next few years I ran across a couple of articles that are bringing up the term Malinvestment. Put that term in your memory banks are going to hear a lot more of it over the next few years. Its the key to the what will be the failure of the reinflation effort of the government and the Federal Reserve. In spite of the coordinated efforts of our so called best and brightest...the most important aspect of recovery is being completely ignored. Our real growth engines for the future education, manufacturing, infrastructure, small business, small banking, are being left to the wolves. A massacre is coming and you must not fall into the trap that has been set for over 25 years waiting to finally destroy whats left of you. Here is a nice excerpt......

Capitalism has nothing to do with ponzi finance; ponzi finance is a function of fiat currency and credit financial systems where the government creates, prints and lends funds out of thin air, where the INSIDERS get the printed money/credit first, and then inflate asset values to create the illusion of growth. Look at today’s 0% interest rates; banksters and connected organizations get the money virtually free (from the FED and their DEPOSITORS) and lend it to the public at 5 to 30% rates, or to the government. Capitalism was in effect before fiat currencies and will function after this version of them fall to their EXTINCTION

Today is the first day of the rest of your life...SO PULEEEEEZE start taking steps to insure you are not a victim in this ponzi. It requires you to be proactive. A great deal of wealth has been destroyed and will be destroyed. Physical gold.

So lets get with it trading today watch the gaps. Market stinks. They have to take it down to give the suckers entry points. Keep that in mind and try to benefit.

DTO looks like it still has some room. GL gang

Thursday, January 14, 2010


Sorry thats a misprint. Wallstreet Banks today including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs pledged ONE MILLION dollars apiece today for relief to the starving,dying Haitians. You would have thought that these banks might have had a PR person get in front of this but they were too busy trying to lie out of their latest congressional hearings. Goldman is going to give out 20 Billion alone in bonus's.

So lets put this in perspective. Brad Pitt and Angelina are giving one million. So lets see Bill Ackman is giving one million. C'mon can do it. Oh wait.....I get don't see the benefit for you to give to Haitians......after all they are only sheeple. Very well enjoy your PR nightmare.

What a day in the market. Meandering crap. But you coulda made some money on the miner gaps. SSRI was nice today. DTO traded.

Watch tomorrow they gap it up and you should see a nice short entry.....but only for the gamblers. Stick with what works.....

Wednesday, January 13, 2010


My purpose is to try and establish choices for your level of investment if you are a reader of this blog. I try to do this frequently but due to time constraints feel that I fail miserably at times.

Tonight I want to regurgitate some recent thoughts that Joe and I have talked about so that you can benefit from these trying to survive the algo slaughter house called a stock market.

The market has always been designed to take the novice traders money. Now the market is designed to take all traders money. Novice traders and professional's money. This is going to be an evil year in the market if you go with the conventional wisdom. T/A must be used to YOUR advantage NOT to theirs. What this means is that if you understand the Fed's behavior then you can use elements of Eliot Wave and T/A. But always be aware that the design is to scrape every last trader's dollar from every corner of this market into the pockets of Goldman Sachs and their tentacle Hedge's.

From now until mid 2011 the Fed will keep the spigot on and the green juice of life will flow into the market. GS will keep the ponzi alive and our miners will be great trades. In fact for the next year if you are not a trader you can buy and hold until then. AGAIN in case you aren't familiar....GG ANV EGO JAG SSRI SLW VGZ AUY should be strong. As a trade the gaps will be phenomenal.

Oil will be kept in a range 70-90. You can make money on DTO but patience is key. There are traders that are killing this trade. And there are traders that are getting killed by this trade. Be carefull.....only for the strong.

Joes recent favorites and mine for at least the next 6 months are SWC and PAL. Palladium just starting its run IMO. We shall see.

For the readers that are sick of the PONZI and want some safety...YOU MUST BE GETTING PHYSICAL GOLD NOW. You will hold until the end of 2014. Thats right till 2014. GL and thank you for all of your kind words for my recent loss.


NOT....Just more of the same today. In spite of the hearings today the ponzi lives on. So do not despair the trade will survive. The beauty of our current strategy is that with the manipulation continuing we will be able to maintain an active trading status for at least a year.

Our real problem will be a year or two off if markets start to break down....but that is another issue and I promise to bring this up later.

Gold up so miners will trade nicely. DTO still strong.

Will burry my sister today and thank all of you for your condolences. Life goes on. She was a tortured soul and is in a better place.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010


Or is that mad man. Anyway to the point. It looks like they are letting some steam out of the ponzi today to try and keep some semblance of a non-manipulated market. So try and remember what this means to us. A trading opportunity! Of course the world has ended it as we knew it. But NEVER, EVER let that get in the way of a good ponzi.

CNBC trotted out some of the best pumpers they had today. Bill Miller and Bob Dall are some of the smoothest soothing snake oil salesmen I have seen. Hell...I wanted to start buying equities today. It was no accident IMO that these gentlemen were on CNBC today. Their presence was to assuage the frazzled nerves of the sheeple that watch CNBC. For me CNBC provides a view of the herd mentality and let's me get a cheap guage of sentiment. Back to my premise now....relax..hopefully we get a hard fast pullback to buy miners but don't count on it.. This may be no more than a couple down days. I am very low on my miners core and will add on pullbacks today.

Watch DTO. This might be the needed pullback on oil. If oil breaks 80 and holds its probably going to 75. Play it and be careful. DTO scares retail investors play small. GL today

Monday, January 11, 2010

Is The Stock Market Rigged?

The article by Clif Droke:

I received an interesting comment from my previous commentary, “Prospects for Economic Recovery in 2010.” The basis of my claim that 2010 will witness some economic recovery was the “6-9 Month Rule” of Dow Theory fame. Simply stated, this rule says that a 6-to-9 month stock market recovery that follows a market decline and economic recession bodes well for an economic turnaround. The comment I received is worth discussing since it reflects a belief that is widely held today concerning the financial markets. He writes, “The stock market is artificially propped up through government purchases of Dow stocks with tax money deposited in broker accounts at such money centers as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, among others. They can levitate the markets indefinitely with Fed Reserve account funds. The U.S. stock market is a fraud. Surely you must understand that.”
If there is any truth to these statements the implication behind them statements is truly staggering. The problem that immediately confronts us as we examine these claims is of course proving their veracity. How can we, as outsiders with no way of knowing what really goes on in the inner circles of high finance, be sure that there is the degree of manipulation alleged in the above statement? The obvious answer is that we can’t possibly know as a matter of certainty that this is true.
For the purpose of our discussion, however, let’s assume that these claims are substantially true. We’ll therefore proceed from the assumption that the stock market is basically “rigged.” Before continuing, though, we first have to examine the motive behind the assumption of a rigged stock market. Specifically, do the manipulators who control the movements of the essential stocks seek to create a perpetually “up” market or rather a constant level of support through the creation of an extended trading range? And to what end?
Further, if we assume the manipulators want a stabilized or “propped up” market, why were they unable to prevent the credit crash of 2008? Or did they perhaps allow the crash to occur for reasons unknown to us but beneficial to their own ends? This question opens up a Pandora’s Box of possibilities and could easily sere as a subject matter unto itself. At least we can conclude that market manipulation is a two-way street in that while the manipulators’ primary interest may be to support stocks, it may also sometimes be to their interest to let stocks fall.
An example of this is found in Charles Dow’s famous statement, “A tree doesn’t grow to the sky.” Stated another way, a stock’s price can only go up so far before the purchasing power of would-be buyers diminishes. When that point is reached it’s in everyone’s best interest to let the stock price In question decline to a more affordable level. Indeed, a perpetually upward trending market for share prices is an impossibility and the manipulators, assuming they exist, are surely away of this.
A further assumption in a manipulated stock market is that the manipulation must proceed in an orderly fashion. It wouldn’t do for manipulators to proceed in a haphazard fashion, thereby creating erratic movements in the stocks they’re operating in. This would actually prove counterproductive since the volatility and unpredictable movement of the stock prices would serve to dissuade outsiders (i.e. those outside the circle of the manipulators) from participating in the market for those shares. A basic assumption behind manipulative activity in the stock market is that the insiders must have someone to play against in order to benefit from their manipulation. Otherwise they’re just playing against each other in a no-win situation. For a time at least, market manipulation must proceed in an orderly way and should provide enticements for the outsider to play against the insiders.
If we assume an orderly market even in the midst of a manipulation campaign, we can also assume that, for some length of time leading up to the game’s culmination, an outsider who understands how the manipulators play their game can profit from it. The only catch is that the outside player must know the rules of the game and should be able to sense when the end is near so he can exit the rigged market at the appropriate time before the game is up. In other words, he must have a technical or timing discipline as well as the presence of mind and emotional control to play against the manipulators without incurring net losses. This endeavor is possible and can be quite profitable if it’s pursued in an emotionally detached, almost mechanistic fashion. This is the very basis behind technical market analysis, which assumes that markets have recognizable patterns, whether they’re based on manipulation or else the result of market “chaos.”
Returning to our original proposition concerning market manipulation, what is the insiders’ prime motive for rigging a market for shares? Is it to ensure a constant flow of capital to float some aspect of their economic sphere? This would certainly be one goal behind any manipulation campaign. If we assume that market manipulation is widespread to the level suggested by the above commentator then we might even conclude that a constant and well ordered manipulation campaign is essential to the functioning of the modern financial and economic system.
One of the most famous claims made by outsiders in recent years concerns the existence of a “Plunge Protection Team.” The putative reason for the existent of the so-called “PPT” is to prevent a broad market collapse. Proving the existence of this secretive coterie is a nearly impossible task. But let’s assume the PPT does exist. Our first question is why, when they were needed most, did they allow the market to plunge in 2008? Further, if we assume that the 2008 crash was beyond their control we can probably also assume that they finally had success in getting the market stabilized against starting around November 2008 and increasing their success until the market’s final low in March 2009. If we assume this, do we not owe them a debt of gratitude for preventing an even greater collapse, one which might easily have resulted in irreparable damage to the economy and the destruction of the livelihoods of countless millions?
Indeed, one could easily question the motive of those who vilify the PPT (assuming it exists). The existence of the PPT assumes that without their assistance the stock market would inevitably collapse. If this is true, shouldn’t we be rooting for their success in propping the market instead of throwing stones at them (even if they’re motive is essentially one of greed)? One can question the motives of the PPT, but what of the motives of those who would see the PPT dissolved as it were? Does the anti-PPT faction actually desire a market collapse and the Great Depression that would inevitably follow? And for what reasons? A love of anarchy and revolution? Disenchantment with the present order? The questions are endless?
Another observation that can be made is that a market for stocks that doesn’t have an active insider or manipulative element to create an orderly market (i.e. market makers) is essentially a directionless one. To see a first hand example of this we need only look at the price graphs and trading patterns of any number of “penny stocks” that haven’t yet gained an institutional following. These stocks tend to trade irregularly in an extremely narrow range for months or even years at a time, providing no return for their owners. Sustained stock price movement requires leadership, and this leadership inevitably proceeds from the inside. To this end, a market uptrend is virtually impossible without some degree of manipulation. This manipulation can be dangerous to those participants on the outside looking in, especially if they lack a technical discipline. Yet no one denies the progress and benefit that a sustained uptrend can bring, not just for the manipulators but for all who are connected with the company in question: shareholders, employees and owners. When we’re talking about manipulation of shares in the largest corporations, the benefits can be even bigger, even to the point of producing employment and prosperity for the nation at large.
It’s this aspect of manipulation that most concerns us. The respondent who was quoted at the start of this commentary seems to suggest that a.) the stock market is constantly under the influence of manipulation, which implies that b.) the recovery in share prices that started last March is artificial and therefore c.) the implication for a general economic recovery based on the Dow Theory “6-9 Month Rule” is invalid. It can be seen, though, that even if the stock market recovery is the result of manipulation by insiders, their manipulative efforts have in fact prevented an even greater calamity. No matter how you look at it, the “6-9 Month Rule” is valid regardless of whether or not the stock market recovery is the product of manipulation.
If the recovery that has been underway since March 2009 is the result of manipulation we can at least be thankful that the concerted efforts of the manipulators has kept us out of another Great Depression. Even if their motives in rigging the market are essentially selfish, we as outsiders still end up benefiting from it directly or indirectly for as long as their success lasts. It’s perhaps an uncomfortable recognition that as a nation our fortune is largely tied with those unseen elements (however unsavory) beyond our comprehension. At the same time, it doesn’t automatically follow that we can’t profit or benefit – directly or indirectly – in spite of their activities. In other words, manipulation doesn’t preclude success if you have the right discipline.


Careful this morning. Quicksand all over as futures remain green. Gold exploding and oil up as USD is weak against all currencies. This market smells like a reversal day so just don't stay in the long trade too long.

Nothing is being changed its just that technically they have to make some adjustments in the Ponzi.....its toooo obvious. I would love to see a back test of th recent gold low....1070 area.....but what I want and what I get ....welll.

Keep your eyes on DTO and the Miners. Gap trade intraday....remember if you aren't nifty at this and you get stuck. Its ok....just call yourself a "buy and hold" investor. That is why I like these stocks.. The miners that is... Dto is a different animal but right now I am holding a small position and not adding. GL today gang.

Sunday, January 10, 2010


Overseas is showing a continued appetite for blondes.....that is the shiny type. Looks like investors are saying fock you to those continued weak employment numbers and interpret more and more and more stimulus coming for the U.S.. Probably reduced my core trade too much on Friday from the initial Reuter's report below...

Spot gold was quoted at $1,153.80 an ounce by 7:31 p.m. ET, up $15.90 an ounce from New York's notional close on Friday. It had risen as high as $1,157.05 an ounce, its strongest level since December 8.

* U.S. gold futures for February delivery hit an intraday high of $1,163 an ounce, its highest level since December 8.


* China ended 2009 with record monthly imports of crude oil and soybeans and a strong appetite for iron ore and copper, while its aluminum and steel sectors saw a welcome increase in export volumes.

* The dollar suffered its biggest loss against a basket of six currencies in a month and a half on Friday after an unexpected drop in U.S. nonfarm payrolls dented expectations interest rates will rise any time soon.

* The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell to 1,119.541 metric tons by January 8, down 3.962 metric tons from the previous business day.

* Oil prices climbed above $83 a barrel on Monday, boosted by a hobbled U.S. dollar and weekend data that showed China's crude oil imports surging to more than 20 million metric tons in December.


Precious metals prices at 7:31 p.m. ET

enjoy the pile on in the P.S. watch out for a reversal hard mon or tues.

Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China

James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true. Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc. As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent. "Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point. As America's pre-eminent short-seller -- he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail -- Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers. Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore. Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal. For all his record of prescience -- in addition to predicting Enron's demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world's biggest banks -- his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored. "I find it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China," said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. "China is not in a bubble."
Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China's economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.
But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China's stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.
"In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he's been tilting against all these decades," said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. "He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That's been his stock and trade."
Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.
"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."
In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.
In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.
The nation's huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth. But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of "speculative capital," has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.
A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 -- one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.
"It's going to be a bust," said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, "The Coming Collapse of China" (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.
Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd -- even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.
A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm's offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.

"His record is impressive," said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. "He's no fly-by-night charlatan. And I'm bullish on China."
Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.
His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called "The Contrarian Investor," according to an account of his life in "The Smartest Guys in the Room," a book that chronicled Enron's rise and downfall.
After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.
At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in "outright fraud."
That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.
Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.
Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other "financial disasters" over the years.
"They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys," he has said.

failure to read this is hazardous to your economic IQ

Saturday, January 9, 2010


One of our investigative division reporters stumbled upon AIG emails in their endeavor to research the ongoing Geithner revelations. We are able to provide some details at this point. Most of the revelations are being withheld due to national security concerns regarding their impact on our troops. But one of our sources uncovered a secretly taped conversation at AIG

But Mr. Govenor (geithner) this request violates what we believe is all semblance of decency. For us to withold this information from the public is criminal.

geithner....yes ...I know it seems a little unusual but no worries this is in the best interest of the people. Do you mind if I smoke?

No...its perfectly fine. This office is completely private. This is where we used to have our TGIF stripper parties before the meltdown. You should have seen it Tim....sorry I mean Govenor.

No no call me Tim....we are all friends here. In fact ...I know your name Larry can the rest of your give your first names.

Moe....nice to meet you sir.

Ted....but my friends call me Curly...

Guys while we are discussing this dirty little business...Would the rest of you like a little toke...cough cough..

Sure is really cool. No one would ever have thought that you were a stoner sir...

Yes I know...A lot of things about me are misunderstood.....notice how I look like Robert Stack the untouchables actor. Chics dig that guys. Not to mention that a lot of people think I am charismatic. .... Hey knock it off with the laughing guys...(lots of coughing and laughing heard)

Sir can we get back to business....I am getting really hungry and wanna skate outta here. Lets get this straight. Don't tell the sheople we screwed um for 80Billion in Swaps right? After all you are da law....This is soooo rich sir....and BTW I think you do look like Robert Stack...

Yup guys are on board. This year will be the greatest bull run in the Markets history and with your cooperation. We can make our Country proud. BTW I am not Mr. Govenor....Its adios boys. See ya later Larry,Moe and Curly.

All references above are copyrighted by the Kliguy38 news bureau and are reserved for private viewing only...any resemblance to the truth is your problem and you should turn your ass in now....

Friday, January 8, 2010


Maybe not to the 87K jobs number this morning. This is real boys n girls. If you aren't preparing now have no excuse. Joe has been working hard to get me to tighten up on my habits. He is right this is not a drill. Our respite may be a year or more......or it may be a few months. No one can tell. One thing for sure you have to start changing spending habits. Paying down debt. Buying storable food. Cooking at home.

Now for the joke....great day in the market. Even Brian Williams could not supress a smirk on the up day in the market. The Ponzi better watch it ....the troops are getting suspicious. And what better way to piss off the masses than to pump oil over 80. Watch em try 90 ....even 100. Their greed and arrogance apparently know no bounds. I will wait to add DTO. I've seen this movie too many times. One thing is for sure they push oil to 100 it won't last long. You would see bankers on pitchforks. So short with both hands if they do.

Gotta love those miners. Joe's call on SWC was spot on. Now be careful with it short term sitting right on a hidden pivot. AUY SSRI SLW EGO ANV all great this week for trades. Long term they will be champions. No predictions for next week other than if you are trading be careful. They want your money so expect the unexpected.

SKF board is slaughtered but the posters remaining are starting to listen and understand the Ponzi. Hell.....some of them might survive.

Cramer said to buy GLD on his show tonight and stay away from physical gold. He never stops does he.

Main street does not buy what wall St has done, check out the following article:

See ya all ....gotta work all night

Update 1010: analyze T/A comment

Oil is trending higher short term with a slight sign of weakness that should resolve to a continued uptrend
- USD should remain choppy short term in a contained consolidation
- the GLD downtrend is reversed, it should continue up, not in an explosive trend though
- SWC is topped here end of day. There is a danger of the larger retrace Palmer mentioned, but it is not probable given the trend strength. There should be a retrace phase with 15.34 as a shorter term target after that retrace is resolved and 28 as a longer term one if it breaks over 15.34. This is a TREND trade not a blazing path to glory, so trade it with patience and enter for the upswings, re-deploy capital for the retraces. Same with ANV and other positions. Jump around to the ones that will ramp next instead of just leaving positions on to consolidate.
- usual play of gaps on miners remains fine for next week
- there is no T/A sign of a rollover in INDU or SPX. The grind higher continues barring some extraneous event. Expect Transports to remain strong with minor retraces.
- as usual earnings season has surprises, should be some good gap fade plays.
- VIX should consolidate into a bottom here with a short upswing a few days away, that will be a short swing down on SPX to short or sidestep and buy into the bottom of it if the technicals hold up. SPX downside "should" be contained to around 15 points, but that will depend on how far it runs before rollover. There is a lot more going on market wide, but that is enough to give everyone a flavor for it and a few ideas for next week. - Analyze

Thursday, January 7, 2010


You're gonna have to do it sooner or later. The masses cry for a head. The guillotine must be fed. The pound of flesh must be given to the peasants. We need blood to quench our thirst for vengeance. So...give us Timmy. After all he is way out of his league. Never mind he is only taking orders. We want him and we want him now. How simple it is. Never mind that Timmy has been a sacrificial lamb with a shelf life from the beginning. Just look at the AIG fiasco.

Moving on to the largest U.S. government bailout recipient by far, AIG’s troubles spawned my favorite placard of the decade: seen outside their Manhattan offices stood a sign that simply read, “Jump!” Maybe its creator heard what I did from AIG’s financial products head Joseph Cassano: “It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of these [credit default swap] transactions.”

He must have substituted his prescription eyewear with those giant New Year’s Eve glasses, because the government sunk $180 billion into the company and it still had to be split up and the assets sold to the highest bidder. I’m sure that his non-flippant comment had nothing to do with him making CNN’s “Ten Most Wanted Culprits” list in 2008.

That excerpt is why Timmy will be chopped up and sent to West Palm Beach for needed RnR soon. Bank on it. After all by now you all have heard the news the mainstream media is hiding.

Now before you think I feel sorry for Timmy, think again. What I want you to consider is the system created Tim, and gave him his orders. He was merely a soldier in the system that is now our country. You and I allowed this and now we are going to reap the wind. Knee jerk....Blame Obama. Sorry.....ding lose and will keep losing. BOTH parties are owned but you just can't comprehend that so they will keep owning you........sorry but you deserve the ponzi.

NEXT.... Making money tomorrow for more ponzi and a nice pump but I really don't care. I am hedged and you should be investing in those miners for the long haul.....At the very least physical gold or silver. Watch DTO. gl gang. Enjoy the PONZI. After all its your country.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010


Come and listen to a story about a man named Jed....A poor mauntaineer, barely kept his family fed, Then one day he was shootin at some food, And up through the ground came a bubblin' crude. Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea.

Yup that is one way to make money off of oil. Another is to short that dirty chit. Careful but you can start your DTO small here but beware.....It looks like they are trying to take it over caution......butcha can play now. Look at it logically. This is a fixed market. Virtually every aspect is controlled at this point as the ponzi continues to chug along. If the ponzi wants to push oil to 100 here they can. It is that simple. If oil stays at this level more than a few weeks then you can kiss your manufactured recovery goodbye ponzi boyz. So go ahead. Do it. Make my day. I can wait on 87 oil then 97 oil......but can your ponzi?????

SWC AUY JAG all MONSTERS today. Watta game. Take it down tomorrow. So I can reload some ammo. Nothing aggressive gang. If you are long term traders Joe thinks and so do I that SWC SLW are the best plays. Take a small position if you are longer term on any pullback and add on weakness. This is early in the ballgame and their aim is to shake you out soon. Have fun and enjoy the game. Its not life or death. (close though) gang.

Stillwater Mining Company Comments on Robust Outlook for Palladium in the Surging PGM Market

SWC stock gained 16.5% today:

STILLWATER MINING COMPANY (NYSE:SWC - News) today commented on the impressive 2009 recovery in platinum group metal (PGM) prices following the collapse in those prices in the fourth quarter of 2008 during the economic meltdown.

PGM (palladium, platinum and rhodium) prices have moved strongly ahead in recent days, continuing a steady recovery that began in early 2009.

Palladium, which just over a year ago had fallen 72% from its 2008 high of $582 per ounce to a 2008 fourth quarter low of $164 per ounce, today was quoted in London at $422 per ounce, up 157% from the 2008 low.

Platinum, which fell 66% from its record high of $2,273 per ounce in early 2008 to a low of $763 per ounce a few months later, today has recovered by 104% to $1,556 per ounce.

Rhodium, which fell 90% from its 2008 peak of $10,100 per ounce to bottom out at $1,000 per ounce, today was quoted at $2,750 per ounce, up 170%.

Commenting on the recent buoyancy in PGM prices, Stillwater Chairman and CEO Frank McAllister observed, "Given the severity of the 2008 economic meltdown, the depth of the corresponding downward price movement in PGMs perhaps was understandable, but the magnitude and momentum of the subsequent recovery in PGM prices clearly has caught many observers by surprise. Palladium at the moment is faring best, having fallen the least and recovered the most, currently off just 27% from its 2008 high. Platinum also has done well, at present down 32% from its high. Rhodium remains down 73%."

"Within the recovery we also see a modest convergence of the palladium price towards the platinum price. Last March palladium was trading at just 18% of the price of platinum. Today palladium is priced at 27% of platinum, having closed some of the price gap, but still priced very attractively relative to platinum and rhodium. We expect to see this price gap narrow further going forward as research from the past several years comes to market that increases the opportunity to substitute palladium for platinum and even rhodium."

McAllister continued, "Both the stronger PGM prices and the narrowing of the price gap between palladium and platinum are good for Stillwater with its 3.3 to 1 palladium to platinum mine production ratio. Recently, we have focused on the factors behind the strengthening in PGM prices over the past year, as well as the price gap between palladium and platinum. Some of these factors are outlined below and we expect to offer a more detailed analysis of the price drivers in the Stillwater 2009 Annual Report to Shareholders now in preparation."

Financial factors are having a significant influence on PGM prices in general. Those with the most impact include weakness in the U.S. dollar, a surge in precious metal sentiment and investment (both as a safe haven and as an attractive investment), and the newly approved U.S. ETF securities for both platinum and palladium.
South African PGM production has fallen steadily since making record highs in 2006, despite strong PGM pricing and earlier projections of aggressive growth. Still, South African production for 2009 will constitute 78% of the platinum, 35% of the palladium and a whopping 86% of the rhodium produced worldwide last year. The issue: multiple challenges face the PGM miners in South Africa -- work interruptions related to mine safety; shortages of and conflicting priorities for electricity and water supplies; a strong Rand (local currency); aggressive wage demands and labor actions; failure to meet increasing capital expenditure requirements needed just to maintain production in ever deepening mines; worker skill shortages; failure to develop adequate replacement mines; and political involvement in mining. Concerns about South African production have driven the stronger PGM pricing we have seen over the past year. And given the predominant role of South African production in meeting world PGM requirements, PGM pricing in the end will always be influenced by the South African PGM market basket with its 2 to 1 platinum to palladium bias, in particular during times of a market shortage of the metals. The bias also suggests a continuing need for a strong platinum price to entice the production necessary to meet world PGM requirements. Yet even today's $1,276 per ounce market basket price still leaves the cost structure and capital sustainability of many key South African mines at risk.

Will Gold Beat Oil in 2010?

TODAY's TRADE IS SWC.In each of the last two years, a single commodity has taken center stage, helping to frame the storyline for the broader market. In 2008, oil's jump up to $147 a barrel became a contributing factor in tipping our already precarious economy into the Great Recession. Then in 2009, as a result of the ensuing economic turmoil, gold truly entered the spotlight, reaching a peak near $1,220 before cooling off slightly as the decade came to a close.

With 2010 not even a week old, we asked a collection of Fool contributors and analysts which commodity -- gold or black gold -- would dominate the coming year. Here's what they had to say:

Alex Dumortier, Motley Fool writer: Which of the two will outperform the other in 2010? I think gold’s story is more convincing than that of oil. I expect global economic growth to remain tepid next year, keeping demand for oil in check. Not so for gold. 2009 could mark the beginning of a secular change in this market, as central banks and international institutions were net buyers of gold for the first time in over 20 years. The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) collectively upped their gold reserves by nearly 50%. China, which runs the largest trade surplus with the U.S. among all our trading partners (and is thus accumulating dollars faster than anyone else), increased its gold reserves by three-fourths, yet gold remains just 1.5% of its total reserves.

Increased demand for gold isn't limited to central banks, either. As of Dec. 29, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) owned 1,133 tonnes of it, more than China and surpassed only by the U.S., Germany, France, and Italy.

The fear that inflation will erode the value of the dollar is entirely legitimate. The government is already doing a first-rate job of debasing the currency, but this show may be just getting started. We should expect the fiscal position of the U.S. to continue deteriorating over the next several years, creating enormous temptation for the government to monetize its debt through a massive dollar-printing campaign. In this context, gold must surely appear increasingly attractive to foreign central banks, institutional investors and individuals alike. I’m giving it the nod over oil in 2010.

Christopher Barker, Motley Fool writer: Both are solid choices for capital preservation amid a currency crisis for the U.S. dollar and other structurally impaired fiat currencies.

All the untold trillions of dollars in failed derivatives contracts -- and the unavoidable resurgence of the deleveraging event -- land squarely upon the lap of these strained currencies. As the one currency that is immune to debt-driven impairment, gold remains the superior choice.

Oil could outperform gold if counter-cyclical relative strength in the dollar continues amid the artful perpetuation of a fairy-tale recovery myth, but when the enormity of our predicament becomes common knowledge, it's gold that you want to hold. Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) remains enormously undervalued. But there's a third color of gold: silver. With a ratio of 65:1, silver is the obvious choice at this juncture, which is why I chose Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) as my top pick for 2010.
Joe Magyer, Motley Fool Inside Value senior analyst: I'm going with black gold here. I think it is fairly priced right now, frankly, though a strong economic rebound would probably drive prices north of $100 again. The real driver of my oil pick, though, is that gold is an asset whose value is driven almost purely by speculation. Gold doesn't spin off cash or find itself predominantly used for industrial purposes. Buying an asset that creates no value and hoping to sell it for a greater price later? No offense, but there's a name for that. Don’t get mad, gold investors. Just look elsewhere.

Toby Shute, Motley Fool writer: I don't view oil or gold as fundamentally undervalued today, but macro events could easily drive prices higher. 2009 was light on armed conflict, and the world may not be so lucky in 2010. Sovereign default risks are also looming in places like Ukraine and Greece, not to mention my home state of California.

The stock prices of commodity producers are also riding high, so it's getting harder to dig up companies that are clearly undervalued, as Venoco (NYSE: VQ) was when I highlighted it in early October.

Your best bet may be to go with a company that's reasonably priced, run by good people, and charting a clear path to transformative value creation. That was part of the thinking behind my pick of ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG) for best stock of 2010, and it's a reason I like Fronteer Development Group on the gold side. Watch out for silver and natural gas in 2010!


Or how about Chris Dodd a perfect example of a broken Nation. Or how about Chris Dodd American Scumbag. Ok ok i will stop while I am behind. What a dirty shame that creap walks away without being hung in public.

His wife was a blood sucking vampire from the lobbying vampire cave. That slime biatch sat on four health organization boards.

Dodd loved to campaign against lobbyists and turn right around and suck off of some of the biggest corporate criminals. I loved in particular how his special Country Wide mortgage deal was completely swept under the rug.

Yes ......I will be in mourning all day. The Dodd family has asked that all donations and flowers be sent through a toll free number 1-888-EAT-CHIT ....If your donations are greater than 1000 dollars then just place them in a paper bag marked CD and leave it with the other bags on the Capital steps.

Watch miners today as usual.....I liked AUYs price action yesterday. GL gang