Monday, January 18, 2010

2009 SEPTEMBER OCTOBER CRASH

We at least expected more than a 6% correction but we didn't get it. I am obviously not an insider that is equipped to explain why and Clif Droke has more knowledge than I and offers some insight on then and now and what we are going to be doing this year.

I look back now and actually believe the ponzi could not afford to make the market appear more of a two way trade last year. Just look at the volume as the down moves would accelerate. That becomes very expensive to reverse and these boyz aren't in to giving money away. The object last year was to provide an illusion of the market recovering. So taking it down with volume accelerating requires some fuel to turn around. Very telling.

Cliff's article more importantly offers us insight into strategy looking forward this year....I am in agreement that trading this year will become the over-riding story by years end. If you don't have confidence in your strategy or what you are buying .....stay out of this market. Just buy physical gold and bend over its coming.

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1263833476.php

5 comments:

  1. Aligns well with what I have said about sector selection and ranges over the past month or so. Informative article. Putting it to use with specifics is where the challenge is, not too many will travel the right road for this. - Analyze.

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  2. I am at work Analyze but wanted to get this out .....the specifics will be challenging and dynamic...meaning you will be constantly adjusting....although some aspects will remain a constant

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  3. Kli, if only you could get John Welsh to explain all this, it would remove all doubt about how to trade every second of 2010. From his twitter: "I rarely do interviews as I always decline them, & I keep my speaking to a minimum for a reason, enjoy webinar tonight, lots of great info".
    Wow lol.

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  4. John Welsh like I are legends in our own minds....hehehe....let's be real though..my goal like all readers better be to trust nothing with what has occurred....I know we are all looking for answers....but absolutisms and overconfidence are to be scoffed at.

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  5. Fed/Treasury target has not changed at the 200 week moving average on the S&P at 1230 at the moment, with every effort taken to keep it above the Weekly Bollinger Band midpoint, 20 week moving average, which is currently at 1080. If you look at the weekly chart for the past year you can see this can go on for a few more months in a long distribution pattern barring any exogenous shock which I don't expect until later this year. So the P3 crowd is going to take it up the arse over the next 1st quarter as they reach for the Tantalus P3 apple or drink from Prechter's golden stream lining his imaginary golden throne.

    With Treasuries 10 year under 3.7 and the dollar weakening, the stock reflation game continues along with providing some support for gold. Gold will be a very tricky trade going forward, especially via the miners, as dips are bought with the reflation effort and at the same time a cap is maintained as not to present an alternative currency option yet and to let the Chinese/Indians/Arabs continue their physical accumulation at these levels in exchange for holding Treasuries while the US sheep blindly follow the latest pop news headlines of the week, Haiti should be good for another few weeks until people get fed up with seeing continued job losses and decreasing purchasing power.

    Saw DaytradingBreakers, a movie about GS Vampires finally taking over the world and realizing the last 5% of the sheep will be bled dry in 1 month before they go at each other for the last drop of blood.

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