Friday, January 15, 2010

HISTORY REVISITED

I couldn't resist making a post about this tonight. We get caught up so frequently speaking in awe of Goldman Sachs that we forget some of their past "Special moments". I could post a lot of them but they aren't really worth the effort. The point is be aware they are good...in fact....they are incredibly good...but you have to be aware of their game. In 2007 I had been telling anyone that listened for over a year that things were going to crash and crash badly. It had really come together for me in mid 2007 when I could connect all the dots. The final straw was my discovery as the market really began to shake in late 2007 that there were over 1.2 quadrillion in derivatives worldwide. I realized then how the ponzi had been able to do it. How they had leveraged the mortgages into a nightmare of worthless securities and how our country was just one big fraud. I began shorting the financials and real estate knowing 2008 would be a disaster. Larry Kudlow and Kramer has their meltdowns screaming for Ben to reinflate the ponzi and lower rates.

But then of course there were a host of "special people" that were trotted out on a daily basis to assuage the masses and try and keep a cork in the buble. I think the one that stood out was the Jan 2008 prediction of Goldman Sachs venerable "Predictor in Chief" ...Abbey Joseph Cohen. She was their perrenial bull. I had recalled her famous "BEAR CALL" in 2000 when she recommended going to something like 10% cash before the market crash....hehehe. Back to 2008...her prediction was soooo far off base that it borders on criminal.......here read and listen

Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, says the U.S. economy will rebound in mid-2008, but the next few months will be bumpy.

In an interview with CNBC, Cohen explained why she remains bullish, how the recovery will look -- and what she foresees for the financial sector.

She says the S&P 500 will hit 1,675 by the end of 2008, a gain of 14.5 percent over 1,463 at market close Tuesday

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22101808

The point of this is believe your own self and always question the motives of the information giver......

Next ...I want to respond to a question I am getting more and more of.....how to buy gold if you have less than 10K......split it between silver 1oz bullion coins and gold 10z philharmonics.....gl gang

7 comments:

  1. Getting rid of the Federal Reserve and Goldman Sachs will result in the creation of a structure more powerful and corrupt. This appears to be the plan. To attack either one right now is to fall into the hands of those who play the Hegelian dialectic like a violin. This is why Ron Paul suggests we audit the Fed, instead of getting rid of the Fed. Change the process, not the entity in charge. The same people will remain behind the scenes, no matter what happens. All we can do is try to control part of their behavior.

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  2. A few comments on your post, and a T/A summary of current market action and its implications:

    First, a comment on OPEX and how max pain is misunderstood by retail traders. Once in awhile on message boards, somone arrives with an amazing revelation that max pain is set up in order for MMs to screw over retail traders as the key driver. This is true and shall remain in place, and by the way volume is higher on OPEX, and the daily candle seen is not your trigger for market direction without confirmation follow-through in that timeframe. In general, max pain is almost dismissed as an urban legend that may work and may not, since the results of it by sectors is suspect at best, at least on the surface. The overall benefit of MMs is what drives OPEX action.
    You may have noticed today that any position not under accumulation by institutions today hit its max pain, while anything under accumulation did not, but reversed trend with obvious impulsive waves after the crap positions hit max pain - the SPX bottom on OPEX is not determined by the max pain hit off every possible position, it is derived off the crap that no one in their right mind is long based off institutional action. If SPX's bottom was based off every possible max pain calculation by puts and calls across all stocks market wide, it would be easy to project it, and game it accordingly.
    A prime example is GS. Everyone has been running away from this like a scalded dog ever since its past earnings. Something came out behind closed doors after last quarter's earnings that had people bail. Maybe their HFT had a snafu, maybe they need to under-report based on Obama tax laws, in any event, people are on the run from it. Yet they had to not allow it to melt down today due to its influence, so it was a hybrid of the OPEX gaming model today.
    Anyone who is successful accumulates counter trend to retail (like MMs hitting hard in accumulation postions after the crap stocks hit max pain creating flat or consolition phases in favored positions around 3pm EST), under a different timeframe than what retail trades to.

    Back to the range of SPX going forward. I posted several weeks ago that the model set up naturally entails consolidation levels for SPX, along with uptrending sectors in favor that ramp while the others degrade of consolidate.
    I think I have made it clear that I am not in awe of GS, and their HFT trading model, which is pretty easy to game - they are restricted by maintaining upside without meltdown, which is like shooting fish in a barrel for anyone with T/A knowledge. The very fact they need to maintain upside forces their hand on market direction and technicals. It either goes up, consolidates, or retraces only to a level to allow more upside off previous waves.
    The consolidation is triggered like any position off extended technicals, which is where we are now. Prior to this current upswing, they put in a strange varying range consolidation pattern, that is not by random, it controls our ranges going forward and is key from a T/A standpoint to allow possible "outs", similar to never hitting measured moves through the uptrend, which has been the standard since the V bottom. There is a "false bottom" that they have hit at 1128/1130 a couple times at the top of the consolidation range that is fragmented, keep in mind that is not really the true SPX support level. They will use the real one for a 2 wave down screw over in order to enact the higher 1158 and 1170 targets, similar to the move last July, where they had to stutter-step the SPX ranges with more downside off a "failed" reveral pattern to allow upward trend continuation. The 2-wave down will not occur on the first cycle in consolidation, the false range needs to be established first to prop it.
    I am travelling next week, so will probably not be trading, but keep the overall perspective of the ponzi in mind. GL Tradrers - Analyze.

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  3. Great read Analyze. While my read is not as knowledgeable or indepth as yours, its nice to see a confirmation of the range as I see it.

    I too will be travelling next week. Off to Chennai, India for business. Have a good trip and GL.

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  4. Safe travels Temo, general meltdowns do not happen in the middle of earnings weeks while retail hopes to game earnigs and MMs need to maintain confidence. I hope to hit the ground before the topping range is over and play accordingly. You must have a few frequent flyer miles by this point ; I watched BIDU for meltdown today while shorting other positions, notta. The time will come though. All things come to him who waits. Patience, and only trade when everything is stacked in your favor to win. Better one big win than a bunch of trades just for the purpose of trading. Greed tends to overrule logic when you do that. - Analyze.

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  5. Excellent comment Analyze.....you have accurately stated the "game". And Mister Man I agree.

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  6. available and relative premium if less expensive

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