Friday, January 22, 2010

MEMO TO CONGRESS... CONFIRM BEN updated

I think the Reid news after hours makes this a cinch and should provide the "excuse" for the rally day next week...I like a tradeable pull back to the 1120 1130 area next week......after that you are on your own....hehe. Sorry couldn't help that.

Did anyone notice the strength of the miners today on huge volume in a blood red market. I hope you know what that signals...Yup....we are close to a nice intermediate to longer term trade here. Still may have some pain longer term but I loved that action for shorter term trade..

This year as advertised is going to be a traders year. Do not stray out of the miners too oftern the water is dangerous. All of the ballyhooed CNBC stocks are traps this year so be careful.

Distinguish mining stocks gang....SWC and PAL are not gold so trade on gaps intraday. I don't like buy and hold on them. If I get stuck on AUY JAG GG SLW SSRI EGO ANV or VGZ....I can sleep at night. After all it beats just sleepin on fiat.

Immred bump.....

Where Kli took a position and you covered was the 1st entry point for gold 1080. Not too confident that will hold considering this is the final low wave before they start reflating aggressively. Same with watching the critical S&P 1107 level break you then got a hot knife through butter down to the 1090 level. Next is 1075 on S&P, analyze has 1077, just a game to see if that gets enough bears and fear into politicians, I don't believe it will and we could see final bottom for this fake out around 1015-1020 before we resume the road to the 200 week moving average, because I don't believe 1150 was it.

Someone mentioned vgz, if you want to trade fine, I never touching that POS again, held it for years management seems to really go nowhere fast, take a look at their 2 year chart pathetic.

Stick with AUY, GG, my personal tracking favorite is GFI. As for oil avoid ETF, stick with stocks personal favorites have been PBR and PTR , petro brasil and petro china; if you believe in the reflation is coming and China is not down and out as Rick Ackerman states, and long entry opportunity is coming up. Reason I am mention oil is it is slowly starting to sync with gold regardless of short term demand.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PBR&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=r14,ss,m26-12-9&c=

Also the reason I am telling people to be careful is many people are confusing buy and hold with what is being presented here which are swing trades, gap trades, and short term momentum trading.

As for SWC, unless you are a very experienced trader like Joe, who can read the slightest change in short term direction on the most obscure stock and reposition quickly, stay out and stick with gold/silver miners and foreign national oil compannies, avoid US companies.

Can stress enough for new readers, if you trade you better fully understand technical trading charts, especially moving averages (convergence & divergence), bollinger bands, rsi and stochs, macd, obv. Oh and avoid the EWI bs of P3 is just around the corner, only thing around the corner is who is going to get hosed next and you want to be on the giving and not receiving end.

Hope that was helpful to your readers Kli and Joe.

8 comments:

  1. A couple comments now that I am back in town from travel, missing all that downside :(, but at least I can be objective since I have no skin in the game at all here due to the travelling. First, the bounce in miners for a very short play looks good here, I especially like the JAG chart here for that play, but I would not hang around long in these positions, be nimble.
    For SPX, I believe I mentioned we were in a wave topping pattern last Friday, and was hoping the topping would hang on for me to get back in town...so much for that, but the call was right. For downside, it is not out of the question to get a pop early next week, but not to reverse the trend. I have 1077 as a more probable first support worthy of short term trend reversal attempts, and then another one that is the max-out allowable at 1058 (market CLOSE value) - that one will be defended like a warzone if it is tested, it is the max allowable downside to preserve the uptrend off the Rothch*ld T/A method, so keep that one in mind if 1077 is not the reversal point. If that breaks on a daily close, look out below and get short of something. No need to be a hero in this current environment, as usual play the positions when you get FAVORABLE entries off whatever system you use for entries, and do not hold anything overnight. Never try to anticipate a gap, react to them instead. The intraday trend is your friend, and if it breaks, admit it has and change posture when it does. - Analyze.

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  2. Welcome back Analyze. I too missed all the fun.

    XRA was also a good trade today. $7 is a good entry for a day trade. Today it had a 57 cent pop.

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  3. yup analyze.....thnx for the numbers.....and strategy.....I am looking for a bounce next week to 1120s

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  4. Thanks Temo, I was pretty disappointed to see I had missed it, shorting here feels like late to the game and scrambling for scraps, unless a more serious break continues. I was hoping the earnings season flucuations would keep it propped, but political events took precedence. Now I am in sit back and see mode until I get a good entry, but the risk feels higher without having a better buffer off riding short side like I could have done had I not been out of town. The eager traders could get nasty surprises here. - Analyze.

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  5. Analyze,

    Welcome back, this week was lots of fun especially with SWC daily gaps. Shorting Gold miners was even more fun for me. I like this market.

    palmer

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  6. Kli, agree with the pop target...Palmer, good to be back, it makes me sick to have missed that action, there were some excellent meltdown plays in looking at a few charts, got to look forward though and see what can be made of the action upcoming. - Analyze.

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  7. I didn't expect a pop before (me fundys bear) but now I do because Tyler D..er kliguy does.

    Being right is no way to make money, so if Kli can do both it is a testament to his ability. He seems one of the few wise enough to know that he doesn't know.

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  8. Palmer, Kli and Immred are all wonderful analysts and traders. They are on the right side of it and are able to win at the trading side while doing so. The best online IMO. - Analyze.

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