Thursday, January 21, 2010

MR PRESIDENT....WE'VE GOT TROUBLE update 1700

There is trouble in river city. BIG TROUBLE. A rock and a hard place kind of trouble. Ya know when you told that lie as a child (or in this case an adult) and then had to lie again to keep from getting caught on the first lie and then again to keep yourself from getting caught on the second lie and then....well you get the point. This administration has that problem in the jobs numbers.

Many of you are well aware that the jobs numbers are manipulated to the point where they are virtually laughable, but herein lies the dilemna. As these numbers have been artificially painted to make them appear to be improving slightly and/or less bad than they really are by using seasonality factors and simply outright ommissions...an issue that they feared arises.

When this strategy was initiated it was part of an overall strategy to restore CONfidence to the market. We already had a large stimulus passed and money in the pipeline. We know how Monetization and QE have impacted the market (the barometer of confidence). But now the problem with the real economy and jobs is going to put a little damper on the party. Here is why. For the president to throw more money through stimulus onto the real economy we must have EVIDENCE that the economy requires congress to pass it.

Yes there is a problem. Our numbers are improving. So why pass more stimulus. Yes. So you see there well be a shift this year to reporting actual numbers showing problems in employment for more stimulus. You know what that means......more money in the pipeline. Employment is horrific and going to get worse ...much worse than the BS number we have of 10%. I think you know how to plan for this. This year will be a traders year but overall they have no choice. GL

The twins no longer derive their sustenance from Nature's founts - in short," said Mr. Micawber, in one of his bursts of confidence, "they are weaned . . ." Dickens

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Pardon my tardiness.....whata day..kaboom.....hope those in cash are nibbling on miners but Joe is convinced they are going lower..so beware...several are getting very tasty JAG and ANV another point maybe... I added...50%cash awaits...here is a rant that you need to read.. For those who are not in miners, watch and see if physical Gold holds $1075 an ounce for re-entry into miners, if not then 1030, 995/1000 would be the next entry point for miners. I would not recommend shorting individual miners unless if you are as experienced as joe.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/scandal-albert-edwards-alleges-central-banks-were-complicit-robbing-middle-classes

21 comments:

  1. Mr. President.... We've got Trouble,

    NO, Mr. President we are about to have a melt down!

    From www.cbpp.org

    ■New gaps in 2010 budgets. An increasing number of states are struggling to keep their 2010 budgets in balance as the mid-point of the fiscal year approaches. Because revenues have fallen short of projections, mid-year shortfalls have opened up in 39 states — some of which have already addressed them — totaling $34 billion or 6 percent of these budgets.

    These new shortfalls are in addition to the gaps states closed when adopting their fiscal year 2010 budgets earlier this year. Counting both initial and mid-year shortfalls, 48 states have addressed or still face such shortfalls in their budgets for fiscal year 2010, totaling $193 billion or 28 percent of state budgets — the largest gaps on record.

    ■Additional large gaps for 2011. States’ fiscal problems will continue into the next fiscal year and likely beyond. Fiscal year 2011 gaps — both those still open and those already addressed — total $97 billion or 16 percent of budgets for the 39 states that have estimated the size of these gaps. These totals are likely to grow as revenues continue to deteriorate, and may well exceed $180 billion.

    ■Combined gaps of $350 billion for 2010 and 2011. These numbers suggest that when all is said and done, states will have dealt with a total budget shortfall of at least $350 billion for 2010 and 2011. (This includes both gaps already closed and gaps projected for the future.)

    This is Key Here:

    ■Role of federal assistance. The federal assistance to states provided in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is lessening the extent to which states need to reduce services or raise taxes. But it now appears likely the federal assistance will end before state budget gaps have abated. The federal government could avert state actions such as deep additional budget cuts that would further harm the economy by phasing out assistance more gradually over the period during which state fiscal distress is expected to continue.

    Mr. President if you think things are bad now, just wait, 39 States are going to have no choice but to Raise more Taxes and Fee's and lay off more People including Union Workers! That's a whole lot of Pissed off People that WILL come out to vote!! So Hurry and pass that Second Stimulus cause the States are sinking and sinking fast.... If I were you I would get busy real busy!!

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  2. Check out SHADOWSTATS.COM for the real govt employment numbers. We are at 22% now.

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

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  3. Why pretend this is all a huge surprise? There is ample documentation based on insider sources that the plan has been, for decades, to do away with the grand experiment of the US Constitution and replace it with a more "stable" structure. The purpose is to ensure the safety of certain financial institutions and private wealth interests, long-term, no matter what happens. That's all this restructuring is about.

    These same wealth interests purchased both parties and excluded any other party participation (no debates on TV), and now they are actively tanking the US economy. This will ensure that the phoenix that rises from the ashes will be the New World Order.

    The NWO will be comprised of regional governments, including the EU which now has its own president. All these regional govts will report to the UN world govt. All of this has been extremely well documented, but if it doesn't appear on the TV, it must not be real, verdad?

    Is it really that easy to bamboozle so many human beings? If so, how the heck did we make it this far? Pure luck?

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  4. Great commentary ........been watching the dump guess Uncle Joes shorts on the miners must smell good......I will wait and watch for a big buy...right now no more long nibbles until SnP at 1070

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  5. kli,

    heheeeeee!

    palmer

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  6. bring those miners down Joe lets get em cheap cheap cheap.........

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  7. Any thoughts on how cheap? Bought some yesterday (ouch). I wonder if the P3 chatter will be somewhat self-fulfilling in the short term.

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  8. Feel like piranha waiting for the Prechter Bears to wade a little deeper into the water.

    Miners will be cheap when S&P bounces either of the daily lower or weekly middle Bollinger Band, 1110 or 1090. Confirmation from gold on daily lower and weekly middle Bollinger Bands.

    Always a chance it could go lower. Go some ammo set aside for some miners.

    If you want to play oil long/short I would stick with the equity proxy of PBR, no decay like in ETFs.

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  9. yup red..I added today for trade .....Joe yelled at me....but ..

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  10. Red,

    I am making miners especially JAG cheaper for you and kline, have ammo ready, so far nice retracement for JAG from high of 14 to current level.

    palmer

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  11. Watching and waiting. Thanks kli and joe. sister

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  12. Joe says to hold....i nibbled a little more today....ouch

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  13. All,

    Watch and see if physical Gold holds $1075 an ounce for re-entry into miners, if not then 1030, 995/1000 would be the next entry point for miners.

    palmer

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  14. Hey Kli, ya watching GDXJ also? Just above support on the daily, although it only has a couple months of price history. If it holds 24 area and gold doesn't break 1075, prolly gonna nibble.

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  15. Geez TLR and AUY are bleeding like stuck pigs.. I'll hold em tho let's see how deep this rabbit hole goes. GORO nice and resilient so far..

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  16. gotta nibble at 1075...then add heavy at 1030..if obama is gonna truly fight to the end then gold will hit 990 per Joes final level

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  17. Morla,

    TLR was an excellent buy and hold from 0.20 to 1.40 and dump and do not look back after wards. I would not touch TLR even when Gold comes back since I do not like the management and they do not have proven reserves. Any upward in TLR should be sold.

    palmer

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  18. Thanks for the insight joe, you guys see the Supreme Court has ruled that corporations can make unlimited campaign contributions now?

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  19. I have been reading your comments for a few days and like what you have to say.However in reading what you have to say about depression why on earth do you like gold.Gold will plumment in this type of scenerio.

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  20. Anon,

    Gold does not do well when Economic growth is great OR interest rates are in double digit, none of theses scenarios are happening. Gold is used as safety net during deflationary depression OR hedge against stagflation.

    palmer

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  21. Maracuya, great analysis. Just finished George Soros' latest book which confirms his push for a NWO. Until then, I had hoped it was just another conspiracy theory. He clearly states that he sees a New World Order and does not believe in the sovereignty of nations. What is amazing is that he got in the club.

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