Thursday, January 28, 2010

NOISE ONLY NOISE

Should be just another day at the office. No revelations to shake the market today. Its only about how far GS is going to take the market down before the squeeze. If you think I can tell you then you will be sorely disappointed. However I can tell you that there will be NO straight down this year and obviously no straight up like last year. We bounced off the bottom SPX trend line so it is still possible that this smelly market moves to my 61.8 fib....but for now the strengthening dollar and sentiment changes makes me suspicious that they may have topped us out.

Gold trade remains vulnerable if we go through a muti-month dollar strengthening. 84 seems to be a possibility but 81 is my target area which makes EUO ( short Euro) a good buy for a while.
Miner stocks may have a ways to go here but my core is fully loaded now and only a further dollar move to 81 gets my core (longer term buy) to increase. Be patient and watch to see what they give us. Watch the gap trades and beware of the treacherous waters right now.

TBT is another oldie to look at for some of you. Eventually this thing explodes.

DTO position is small and may add small if they push green on oil today. Premarket was strong for oil but weakened going towards open

The president's speech as expected is a non-event for the market ...We are still owned. And when we wake up tomorrow and the next day.....we will still be owned. So for those of you that enjoyed the diminution of your constitutional freedoms during the last 9 years in the name of preserving our way of life.....you may want to consider WHOSE way of life that phrase refers to. gl and have fun.

22 comments:

  1. That last sentence is great Kli

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  2. the past 3 years has turned an eternal optimist into a died in the wool skeptic.

    the glass isnt half full its empty but the illusion is being created to show it half full.

    I dont think the top is in. My guess is we chop higher till oct.

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  3. I'm not gonna give up on the "bull market" yet temo....hehehe....watta scam....chop the stops to shreds this year

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  4. kli,

    S&P's 100 DMA is 1086, close below that mark makes the game more interesting,heheeee!

    palmer

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  5. DTO is kicking butt as usual, nice!

    palmer

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  6. Shorting CENX is sweet, what a nice drop so far from highs.

    palmer

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  7. All,

    If you read the post on Saturday January 23rd in this blog which talked about dollar and Euro, you might want to buy some shares of EUO which is short Euro. Good luck!

    palmer

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  8. CAT ripped lower off the gap failure as I predicted last night under one of the other posts, I covered it here. I suspect a bounce in here soon, stepping back to re-assess. I won't hold overnight. - Analyze.

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  9. All the major US indices have now broken through their long-term support trend lines. The bear market rally since March 2009 is over. It may take a few days for the general market to come to the same conclusion, so don't expect to see the definitive turnaround for several more days. We may bump up to kiss resistance (former support) before taking the plunge.

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  10. yes and this is a very dangerous position short or long so ....which way do they go....

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  11. The taxpayer-fueled stimulus money could very well come into play, and be used to buy this market when the technicals are perfectly setup for it. I would not put it past the PPT.

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  12. The technicals are set for that scenario at SPX 1058 related to my post last weekend. Notice the futures are warring over the Immred/Analyze target of 1075/1077 right now. If that level breaks it is blue skies down to 1058. If they manipulate it here it will be a contained shortable dead cat bounce. I would prefer that scenario if I had my choice. - Analyze.

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  13. Bernanke bashing was the blame for the first market decline and now his confirmation is the blame for this one. What a game.

    Gold tested the Dec lows and bounced. A strong close tomorrow should signal a run to test the highs.

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  14. Here is a TA Bullish view. This is not my blog but one that I follow.

    http://spx-ta.blogspot.com/

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  15. The market is a cruel mistress, so I'm trying to keep an open mind to both sides, although I see the deck stacked in favor of the bears here. For the bullish view they have abit of work to dig out of a hole, but it has been seen before many times last year, with the rally cry of bears quickly gagged by the ponzi, usually turfing the dollar to do that (USD does not look like it will roll over there though). Something like an inverse H&S if a bottoming pattern developed here over a few days might work for that, really needs a structure to get it over the 1113 mark minimum. Flexibility is key, roll with the punches. Also never be fearful of not agreeing with me on anything either, contrarian views must be voiced to keep everyone objective. It is the best way to avoid the herd mentality. - Analyze.

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  16. Edit, "contrary or different" not "contrarian" was meant in the preceding. - Analyze.

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  17. One more thought and then I will shut up for tonight - we were used to reversals in trend following selloffs/retraces last year. This year is more apt to enter consolidation ranges instead of reversing trend after a significant move. I posted about that in December I believe, still a valid model. - Analyze.

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  18. Analyze you are correct. The only way to stay out of the grinder and play the game is to be aware of as many possibilities available.

    futures havent given any good clues recently of what the day might bring so you have to watch the tape.

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  19. I think that is sound advice analyze and cant disagree.....nice thing is we WILL have and answer. AUY is really close for a longer term trade. Today's action looked like some shakeout.

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  20. Analayze I forgot to mention good call on the CAT short. If the market goes down tomorrow and CAT breaks 51 it could be good for another $3 I think.

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  21. Thanks Temo, there should be that much downside under 51. Alternate play instead of waiting for failure at 51 is short on any upside for a rollover at 53, ITM puts there down to 51 and optimally ride it down to that lower target on the 51 support failure. That way you are already green deeper ITM in case it bounces some at 51, and have the buffer to get out unscathed if it reversed at 51 (doubtful, who would want to buy this pos?). This is one of the ones I had in mind earlier when I said I preferred a dead cat bounce to start things tomorrow, lower risk short entries. - Analyze.

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  22. Which way will it go? Bernanke confirmation putting inflation trade back on -or- Volcker Rule causing bank deleveraging?

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