Tuesday, February 9, 2010

THE BULL IS BACK update II

Not quite unless you enjoy being biatch slapped. Early morning futures look to be strong and the next two days of news appear uneventful. Ben speaks at 10 am tomorrow so I wouldn't be surprised to see two nice days of gains to the 1080. But watch out for thursday...we get retail sales jobless claims and business inventories and then consumer sentiment on Friday...

Respect the trend...and remember the trend is your friend. And when it "aint" its a mthrfkr. Right now its down and until 1020 to 1030 is held and confirmed this is one dangerous market. I have advocated the precious metal miners because they have value but they take the first and fastest beatdown in these sell-offs... They are the winners and they get sold first. GS wants these beat down. They know where the bottom will be and they will be the buyers. I will discuss what the bottom looks like if I see it but haven't seen it yet.

Knowing this year will be a trader's year and profiting from the trades are two separate issues. For most traders holding a core of miners here is a must 20% is reasonable. My core was extended on the pullback and that will cost. Miners will come back from their beatdown but in the market timing is everything so remain patient with your cash.

As usual be accumulating physical gold. Dollar strengthening is not over . Watch 81 then 84. If we get to 84 miners will be another 20% so beware. AUY at 7.50. Its possible.

Nice excerpt here....

Major stock market indices put in outside weekly reversals last week, which is a bearish technical indication the intermediate-term trend may have finally rejoined the primary forces that would see prices far lower were it not for official intervention. And although this intervention is now getting talked about in the press in a more intelligent fashion, even if only on a very limited basis, it should be understood most remain oblivious to what makes the stock market world go round. Of course while better than nothing in terms of enlightening the masses, at the same time it should also be understood that such accounts never present a comprehensive explanation of what causes prices to trend (meaning intelligent speculation is still possible), with the attached above yet another example of this, offering no discussion on investor sentiment, cycles, and so on. The aspiration Mr. Biderman ultimately comes to, that the low volume ‘jam job’ government price managers have engineered is likely a ‘ticking time bomb’, is correct; however such an account is still lacking, and far too late for those unfortunate and unaware speculators who have already been ravaged by such activities.

OBTW take a look at the Indu chart HnS forming WOW...

http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1265650132.php

update I: Be aware if you are a DTO trader that oil is in a precarious spot here. Either it gets bullish and makes a move over 80 or it is in danger of a bearish 50/200 crossover occurring. I have only a tiny DTO position left at EOD. will not add until I see direction . If oil crosses 75 and then fails to reach 80 watch out below.
updateII: Nice watch on silver

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1265745976.php

36 comments:

  1. Analyze,

    Another great gap day for SWC,heheeeee!

    palmer

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  2. Palmer, agreed, kicked butt this morning, sidestepping to assess action for a bit. - Analyze.

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  3. I have not done much today sold some of my longs and went just a little more short via options.
    Waiting for that 1030 zone, before adding to my core positions in consumer stocks: PG, PEP, MCD, JNJ, KFT. Also, plan to add to AUY, GDX, GDXJ at that point and start positions in GFI, SLV, and GLD
    Jeff

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  4. Analyze,

    look at the gap DTO gave us from low of the day. If you are a good daily gap trader in SWC and DTO then it does not matter to you whether overall market is up or down,heheeee!

    palmer

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  5. kli,

    LCC has been a great performer since it hit 2.90 last yr and I told nancy & you to get in, lower oil prices help airline stocks moving up.

    palmer

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  6. I am hearing rumors that there are plans to write off the enormous debt held by so many countries, and wipe the slate clean. I believe this is why the insiders are holding on to the US dollar... Geitner announced this week that US govt bonds will NEVER be downgraded. Sounds similar to Soros saying that gold is the ultimate bubble -- remember that Soros co-owns the DTC, which is the branch of the Fed Reserve responsible for allowing naked shorting. Anyhow, pay attention when insiders try to make themselves sound smart and worthy of your trust, when they throw a manipulated prediction to the masses.

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  7. Yep, sold too soon but cannot complain, lcc was my largest s-t gain of 2009, thanks to you. Originally, you said it would hit $6...also, what's with gold/silver today? Just a general down dollar day I assume. I have some longs, not ready to commit to more at this juncture. Sis

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  8. Palmer, agreed, trading ability on gaps and rock solid TA are what separates the dogs from the puppies in 2010. Check out USD... - Analyze.

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  9. Nancy,

    GS is squeezing shorts and today they are savaging commodity shorts since that was the sector shorted most. You always need to be aware of GS, they are the master of the game. The recent take down was all engineered and so is the squeeze. What a game!

    palmer

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  10. SLW is kicking butt today,heheee!

    palmer

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  11. INSANE TODAY...all caps mean I am screeeeming!!!
    Just came home and most of my stops hit!!!! Now reversing...geez!!! Boy am I ticked off! TXB!

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  12. All,

    The hidden pivot point for Gold was 1077.50, and it broke it which means possibility of short term price rise to 1100 for Gold is increasing.

    palmer

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  13. Red,

    How the heck are you? How do you like this ponzi action? I like your PBR today.

    palmer

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  14. palmer, do you use proprietary trading system?

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  15. I have a proprietary system using coing flips - 3 heads in row bullish, 3 tails in a row bearish. It's an upgrade from my previous system of consecutive wins and losses playing Simons Says. Very stressful to use in volatile markets, especially using mental stops. - Analyze.

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  16. I won't be buying this upswing. I never play against the trend. I will wait and load up when this upswing decides to turn after hitting resistance, however.

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  17. Yep love PBR, it actually trades like a leveraged gold miner because of its vast undersea deep water oil reserves and the full support of the Brazilian government, who is the biggest stake holder.

    PBR, AUY and GFI should be bottoming out soon for accumulating a longer term core position to trade on the up trend, based on both daily and weekly charts, regardless how the rest of the S&P does. The Greece, etc. bailouts are actually very bullish for oil and precious metals over the next year; plus the beating of war drums helps the monetary aspect of these commodities even as consumer and industrial demand drops.

    Per CBS: Every major system including EWT and GS HFT insider trading has weaknesses, that can be easily gamed if you are small and nimble enough. Once you a get large enough you start moving the market and cannot enter or exit easily positions, like a water buffalo with traders like Joe acting hyenas picking at the heels of the slow ones while the GS lions are to busy coralling the herd to finish them off at predetermined killing zones.

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  18. Red,

    You are the man, heheeee!

    palmer

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  19. You guys are awesome! Red, have never traded pbr, but taking a serious look. Hopefully more short squeezing in the future after a good entry. -Sis

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  20. very nice description Red....but Joe is more accurately a "jackal"

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  21. Read this --
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-dumping-begins-reserve-managers-notified-any-non-usg-guaranteed-securities-must-be-div

    and then read this --
    Dollar's dominance to be challenged at G20 summit
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/26/content_11079095.htm

    and then this --
    Estulin: G-20 Meeting in Scotland this Week about Dumping U.S. Dollar
    http://dprogram.net/2009/11/03/estulin-g-20-meeting-in-scotland-this-week-about-dumping-u-s-dollar/

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  22. BTW do not bite on short side unless 1063 is broken here - very important. - Analyze.

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  23. also this
    http://investingcontrarian.com/global/something-big-around-the-corner-usd-devaluation/

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  24. That was a headfake about an hour ago obviously, regaining 1063 was the exit if you shorted there. 1084 target remains - if you are bearish you actually want 1084 hit firt rather than breaking down here. - Analyze.

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  25. Analyze,

    SWC gap again, 10 to 10.40,lalalaaaa!

    palmer

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  26. SWC, what would we do without it...what are your thoughts on USD Palmer? - I have the technical bounds set, but if bigger picture this is just the start of another big downswing on USD and end of the uptrend, it's a game changer, and that 1084 level is just a ruse to chop the heads off shorties. Thoughts? - Analyze.

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  27. Analyze,

    When it comes to USD, the best indicator is END of the month. If by end of february USD is at 81 or over then bullish trend in USD continues, otherwise USD becomes bearish.

    palmer

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  28. In the interim, have to use the 1090/1084 rule I posted a few nights ago. Despite possible trend break on USD, technicals say SPX down...got to play it unless price actions says otherwise. I won't hold overnight to prove my point though ; - Analyze.

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  29. All this action is corrective, may get to 1084 in the next century to set up the 1025 plunge. Sick of watching it personally. Scalp in the interim. - Analyze.

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