Thursday, February 11, 2010

THE MOST PAIN udate II

I have tried to get a feel for the market direction for the past couple of evenings and have made a couple of observations. Virtually EVERYONE....Bulls and Bears have a consensus that the market is headed down. I cannot disagree. But when I see a boat that overloaded to one side. My antennae go up.

Notice the correction in Gold it has bounced nicely over support now and COULD have formed a bottom. NEVER call bottoms btw. Only an observation as a possibility. Notice the miners....some have corrected over 30% most over 20%. They were not exactly parabolic prior to their corrections. They have also been showing signs of life now even on red market days. Still not what I would want to label a bottom. But you have to be aware.

The ponzi is over if they tank this market to hell....so I do not see P3 here. Again I have no crystal ball but just my thoughts. As far as I can tell nothing is new out there. Greece is not new. In my opinion they are using it to create a negative in the market and I would be very cautious viewing it as catastrophic. Black Swans are unknown and out of left field. This is neither.

If you think GS has lost control then you can nix all I have said .....otherwise you better have your core of miners. Mine is probably too heavy here but WTF ....I just don't trust them (GS)........gl

Update I :
The Ponzi business press made much tado about George Soro's comments on the "gold bubble" recently. You might find this little tidbit of interest. (this is how the ponzi works).......

What George Soros said, and what the press said he said...


"GEORGE SOROS warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'," ran the Daily Telegraph headline.

What Soros actually said was:



"When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold."

UpdateII..

I believe that gold is moving down in an attempt to establish a new trading range. At this point in time it looks as though the April Gold Contract is trading in a range of approximately $1100 to $1050.



Gold has not gotten much support off the Greek debt situation. Investors are still using the US Dollar as the “safe haven”. As the Dollar Index has been rallying, gold has been selling off. Eventually this inverse relationship will change, but right now it continues to be in play.



In looking for a clue as to when gold’s inverse relationship with the Dollar Index may end, I have turned my attention to US debt auctions. My guess is that when disappointment in bid to cover ratios and higher yields becomes a trend, gold will be ready to break away from its inverse Dollar relationship.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1265871780.php

55 comments:

  1. Miners doing nicely today and so is Gold, so far the 1050 support for Gold has held. CENX is a nice trade today & of course SWC does not disappoint me, heheeeee!

    palmer

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  2. Palmer, Did you buy CVM at $0.50?

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  3. No, not playing CVM,too busy in other areas.

    palmer

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  4. I'm not either...I'm too busy losing my blouse today..maybe even my bra...I'll be naked soon...OMG!!!!!! TXB

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  5. TXB,

    You always need to be careful especially when it comes to Gold & silver, my advice is do not listen too much to prechter especially when it comes to Gold, read my essay from yesterday.

    palmer

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  6. TXB...thats why I stopped shorting gold and silver it ALWAYS kicked my ass.....ESPECIALLY in this economy.... don't stay in THAT trade..if they break 1100 then 1150 is comin fast. Prechter has missed the gold call for years

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  7. Analyze,

    SWC is kicking butt, what a great stock to trade!

    joe

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  8. Ok...I'm not short gold...I am short silver...if they hit 15.80..I'm out. Thanks, TXB

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  9. Prechter has missed it for decades, yes anybody can count to 3 and 5, but EW has a fundamental flaws which their cult leaders keep missing to point their sheep, their are 2 counts (why not just flip a coin much easier than follow blindly), their misunderstanding of gold and cash of today versus the 30s (hint even though gold was removed silver was still circulating, versus fiat electronic bits which can be leveraged by 10, 100, 100, 10000 today). European bailouts means more fake electronic western fiat to jack everything up every chance they can.

    Keep it Simple, 20 dma for SP500, oil and gold, failure lower Bollinger Band, Success upper Bollinger Band. S&P 1088 possible before resuming back towards 1025 for the springboard back up.

    You don't continue loading the boat up when everybody starts getting on the same side in this market as the quant programs will rip you apart.

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  10. Sorry bout that Silver short TXB. I've been getting sliced and diced in silver recently as it has chopped around but finally caught today's move up (after almost puking this morning).

    With the bond sales and greece behind us, I think the $15.80 figure will be taken out.

    Asia should pump up metals tonight too.

    -C

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  11. What's the deal with BAC? I've been watching it stay flat for days now, pinned like BSC was before it collapsed. Market up, BAC flat. Market down, BAC flat. Anyone?

    -C

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  12. Palmer, great day for miners in general, let's see how they finish this session. Go long big or go short big decision is very close now per earlier posts. - Analyze.

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  13. I read your blog and couple of others to compare. The Fly at IBANKCOIN.COM called this one correctly. They have a PPT score that seems to never be wrong. Anyhow, I loaded up the truck today and checked my technical charts, and it all looks good. We are heading up.

    BTW, I was on the fence about the direction of the market until today. Technically, today I am seeing it on some of my better breadth indicators used for identifying turnarounds.

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  14. I just started reading IBANKCOIN.COM and haven't yet figured out his jargon and when he is serious and when he is joking but if his calls are correct, that's good enough for me.

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  15. I went to the sight and saw very little analysis to back up what he is doing, just one chart with a couple moving averages on it.

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  16. I checked the sight and he sounds like a punk cursing his way through a couple stock picks. If he is always right, why check other blogs?

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  17. Good charting music.

    http://www.cmt.com/videos/dwight-yoakam/46535/turn-it-on-turn-it-up-turn-me-loose.jhtml

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  18. Ok, I give up on your blog. Your infatuation with all things GOLD has turned me off. Gold goes up, you go crazy. Gold goes down, we must hold on because gold's day is surely coming soon. Gold does nothing, there is nothing better than GOLD. You are not a trader but a GOLD BUG. Good Bye.

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  19. Anon,

    Thanks for leaving:
    "Ok, I give up on your blog. Your infatuation with all things GOLD has turned me off. Gold goes up, you go crazy. Gold goes down, we must hold on because gold's day is surely coming soon. Gold does nothing, there is nothing better than GOLD. You are not a trader but a GOLD BUG. Good Bye."

    Kli is a vulture, he is addicted to Gold, not only he has bought all the available gold coins in the state of kansas, he is looking to devour more gold in other states. Red is not any better either, that vulture is devouring all the Gold in Colorado. Speaking of trader which you mentioned this site is not, that's where a jacal like me comes into picture. I am sure you can calculate the percentage gain from $2 a share to $18 a share in commodity stocks gives you, that's buy and hold last yr, this yr my friend is HEAVEN daily with either shorting or gap trading the names you hate which is Gold. This game is not for you .

    palmer

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  20. Anon when the dust settles you will find that the money will go into value and gold mining stocks will be the absolute best bet with what is coming.....

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  21. Anon ......go buy aapl at 220 a share......you will make a fortune.

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  22. Actually, Le Fly at IBankCoin.com is not the main talent over there. He's a good trader and definitely has an attitude problem, but the guy you should check out first is the Chart Addict -- this guy is 23 years old and his returns are jaw dropping.

    Last 5 years averaging about 200% per year. In 2009 he was close to 1,000% I believe. Prior five years when he first started was averaging around 50% (when he was just a freaking kid for crying out loud). You can catch all is trades ath ye happen, on Twitter. He also has a TV show on StockTwits. Shares all his analysis and trades for free.

    Not trying to sell anyone's blog, but just want to share some good info since I can tell you folks here are serious about making money. I look at everything and then run it past my own proprietary systems, no matter who I am reading or following.

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  23. you guys want to guess .....ok watch 1087 then 1110.....if you are still heavy long there then your ass is mine...still think we see 1020-1030...soon.

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  24. Look Kli isn't calling for gold 2,000 tomorrow, in fact he generally is waiting and hoping for gold to plunge so he can improve his cost average. Whether he's a "goldbug" is a matter of opinion and semantics.

    Nevertheless the "goldbugs" have been consistently right on gold as a store of wealth since the dawn of civilization. If you don't think food and water are going out of style, why would you think such about gold?

    If you simply think gold is a bit overbought right this moment Kli may even agree with you. Anon seems like a blind hater though, so truth/fiction probably play no role in this.

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  25. How about another mind-freak scenario, sell if off to 1061 and let it set there for people to prognosticate about for the weekend. Does it ramp again? is this half of the move down? lol. - Analyze.

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  26. Thats completely in the cards before the move to the 1085....it will give me a little trade...

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  27. Clash of the Central Bank Titans, China vs Federal Reserve and their EU lackeys.

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  28. analyze, looks like you may get your 1,061 scenario :) - wolfsonite

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  29. DTO baby,heheeee!

    palmer

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  30. Behavior at 1061 is critical. Watch for a potential reversal, or a backtest of 1066 and rollover again, no huge downside unless 1059/1058 is breached on volume. Nice of them to bake most of the downside into the futures to leave it here. - Analyze.

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  31. Red,

    look at the gap in GFI already btoday from low of 11.53, heheee!

    palmer

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  32. Decent gap on EGO too. - Analyze.

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  33. Analyze,

    yup, unlike most traders who try to worry and guess whether futures are up or down, if you are a good gap trader in individual stocks, it does not matter whether overall market is up or down, the targeted stock gives you nice gaps to trade.

    palmer

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  34. Beats staying up all night watching the futures. SPX has a no man's whipsaw land today of 1059-1070. Bad options environment due to the corrective overlaps. A break either side will rock, but it may not happen. In those kind of environments, the gaps and scalps are the game. - Analyze.

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  35. Palmer, kli, ... can someone elaborate on gap trading. Given how often it gets mentioned here, it would be great to issue a short overview.

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  36. Anon,

    Daily gap trading is an animal by itself, read the following, it gives you an idea of what gap trading is:
    http://trading-stocks.netfirms.com/gaps1.htm

    palmer

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  37. gap trading is very dangerous for even pro traders. You must be very experienced. I trade gaps only periodically and I MUST have a feel for the stock I am trading gaps on. I recommend only experienced traders do gap trading on a regular basis.

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  38. Palmer,
    where does the money go in a gap? to/from the shareholders or do specialists benefit?

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  39. CBS,

    The main money goes to specialists and MMs since they are the ones controlling the action.

    palmer

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  40. For a retail trader like me, I have to do lot more work, deal with risks and study to take advantage of gaps than those who control the action ( specialists & MMs).

    palmer

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  41. All,

    PBR doing well since it hit $37 last week, go get them Red.

    palmer

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  42. That breakout over 1070 was crushed, too bad it would not break down at the lowe bounds as well. - Analyze.

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  43. Algo stick save at 1066. The ponzi is alive and well. - Analyze.

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  44. looks like they intend to take it off 66 for the gap fill next week.....if i remember analyze its 1104......correct me if wrong

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  45. SPY has a large gap starting at 109, there is no doubt they are preventing any downside here. That other pop earlier that went over 1070 was also algo initiated at 1066. No doubt that gap is the target next week. - Analyze.

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  46. Analyze sorry...I mispoke.. the gap is at 1090 to 1094 area ....so yes correct.....they should touch that .....

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  47. Just caught that downdraft on SPY and covered. Be nimble or be dead. - Analyze.

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  48. With one hour left there may be time for another ponzi algo setup hehehe gotta love it. - Analyze.

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  49. Probably will not see a big dive end of day, they need to preserve a structure out on the longer timeframes for the ramp next week. - Analyze.

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  50. looks like one for the close here.......setn up for tuesday....gap up??? hehehe.....gotta love this chop shop

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  51. This is all about Tuesday setup. I would be pretty surprised to see a big move in the final minutes, they need to bound the range here. - Analyze.

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  52. yup froze it in between land....still plenty of shorts left for a quick squeeze monday....

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  53. SVM closed at hod. Have a great week-end all.-sis

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