Wednesday, February 3, 2010

A NEW DAY DAWNING updated II

ADP showed steady improvement and life is good. I put rasberries on my granola and everything is perfect. Finally I am back in my office and get a full day to trade. So what to do ...what to do. Hmmmmmm don't sit still or you will get ran over.

DTO looks sceeeery here. But gotta try to nibble a little. LITTLE. Trade this biatch only here. Miners still at risk so no heavy buys or adds. You should have a 20-30% core position only. I am a little bigger than that. Now that I have told you I am at risk for an ass chewing by Joe. He is very concerned miners can take a severe beating over the near term as USD strengthens.

PAL and SWC is going to do well this year. Entry points are same as miners.....so have a position and hope they get clobbered.

BTW so there is no confusion on this blog. I despise both political parties and what they have done to my country. And for those of you who do not know my history I have always been an independent as a voter. Make NO mistake Bush/Cheney were disasters for our country and constitution. The current crew are different only in that the top dog is 40 IQ points brighter than his predecessor and speaks english not hillbilly. But if you have bias in this game then you will get fed a big chit sandwich so you better get over it. A lot of my friends have been too anxious to short the market last year because they "hated" Obama. That proved to be disastrous. So remember we try to trade and invest with NO BIAS.GL

Also be aware the 61.8 fib from the 666 low is still in play and does make things very dicy for us if the market does hit my guess of over 1200 on the SnP. Here is an interesting inverse HnS developing that gets vethy interethting.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1265137200.php

Update 19:55; Walayat's forecast for 2010 :

This is the meat of what walayat is saying, it can be argued and even dismissed by some which is fine by me, future will tell if he was as correct as last yr or not. Him along with Clif Droke were one of the first ones who called for the stealth market we had last yr and they called it in March. Any way here is the bulk of what he says:

"SUPPORT / RESISTANCE - There is a series of strong support in the region of 10,000 to 9,800. and then 9,500. Should 9,500 break then the Dow could tumble all the way to 50% of the rally at 8,600. Overhead resistance lies at 10,300, then 10,400. With strong resistance in the region of the 10,600 to the high of 10,726. It will probably take some time for this resistance to be overcome. Next resistance above is at 11,250 that may mark a pause in the uptrend if it breaks higher enroute towards the target for 2010.

PRICE TARGETS - Downside price targets resolve into the 9,500 to 9,800 zone, therefore this should contain the current correction, a failure here would negate this analysis and probably mark the end of the bull market which initially targets a decline to 8,600. Upside projections show difficulty in breaking above the 10,729 high, though once overcome the Dow would target a level north of 12k.

VOLUME - Volume has been WEAK throughout the rally, which has been one of the main reasons why so much commentary has been bearish during the rally. However it is perfectly inline with that of a stealth bull market and also implies that this rally has NOT been bought into. So all of the talk of hyper bullishness investor sentiment is basically rubbish as there is no sign of such sentiment in the volume, which remains heavier on the declines than the rallies and thus suggestive of SELLING rather than buying into the rally.

Risks to the Forecast

Technically we have had a major sell signal on break of the main uptrend line which means the current correction has YET to bottom, my target is eventually a bottom at 9,500 to 9,800 after a corrective B wave rally towards 10,300, the C wave decline should hold at this, however if 9,500 goes then this at least implies a bear market that initially targets 8,600.

The primary risk for the end to the bull market is that the central banks pull the plug on easy money as a consequence of a series of sovereign debt crisis. I.e. forced to push interest rates much higher than forecast to prevent a bond market / monetary collapse. In reality the governments have a window of opportunity to benefit form the strong economic recovery currently underway to CUT the budget deficits and get a grip on debt to GDP ratios. If they waste this opportunity then this forecast could fail as it resolves towards a bear market trend back towards the March 2009 lows.

However I put this risk at this point in time at about 25%, small but significant. It really depends on the economic bounce being as strong as I forecast it to be which will carry the markets AHEAD of it, and inflation and consumer confidence along with it therefore allowing deficits to be cut along side economic growth".

http://www.walayatstreet.com/

49 comments:

  1. Welcome home Mr. K. Bought the gap down on PAL this morn open, workin so far. Nice to see gold up with the dollar up. Get back to the skf board and stir 'em up a little when you get a chance! wja

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  2. didnt like my dto trade and dumped it....chart is gettin scary... $WTIC

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  3. Not a political blog, I know. I find it unnerving how few Americans understand that the World Bank/United Nations is the power behind the changes we are seeing in our country... from health care (trying to meet the Codex Alimentarius minimum requirements) to real estate (loss of private property in accordance with Agenda 21), sustainable development (driven by money backing Agenda 21) and plans for gun control (again, in accordance with UN legislation).

    That said, keep up the good work and continue educating people. Also help them realize that the D and R parties are the same party, as they are backed by the same private money and privately-run thinktanks.

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  4. You claim "no bias" in trading but your bias towards gold is palpable even though the trend has changed.

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  5. gold is the only safe value that i can extrapolate longer term. If we take a major hit whether its P3 or Kondratiev winter or just a major correction of 12%. then gold physical will do well relatively speaking. Shorter term a week or two or a couple of months then sure any strong dollar move will kill gold stocks...but I have little doubt the print presses will have to eventually run full bore. gl... and yes we all have bias.....learn to control it in this market

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  6. I don't have a bias ... Ii equally like losing and winning money.

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  7. What are your thoughts about todays activity? Just a slight sell off after a few big up days or something more meaningful? Trying to figure out whether to jump back into my silver position although silver was anemic yesterday relative to the equities and gold. Thanks.

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  8. Jumpin frig wheres she goin here Kli, looked at those EWer charts but she aint helpin, things jumping around like one a dem ol jackrabbits, cant get a bead on er here.

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  9. Market must have more correction imo...next few days may drift higher but 1030 area certainly doable in next few weeks. I would not be aggressive here but would hold a core of miners. If you wanna play for 1113 long sure...I still see 1200 plus this year...but that is only a guess

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  10. First off Obama and his 40 point higher IQ will and has made things worse. I didn't like Bush but he was the lesser of the evils. Hard to choose when you have two IDIOTS running. Next, Obama doesn't have a 170 IQ, Bush's has been said to be 130ish. I would say he may be has a 135 IQ but he has a way about him that makes people think he is smarter than he is. If you are a gold bug then Obama is your man. He has done what Bush did X 10. Obama has proven that he will pay off his politcal favors with tax payer money and brought Chicago politics to Washington which made Washington even worse than when Bush was there. Obama will lie to your face and you won't even know it until you are bent over and taking one up your butt. Third political party is the answer. My question to the bulls of the stock market is if the Gov. budget was back to 2007 and the Fed and Tres. guarantee's are gone where would the stock market go?

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  11. OMG....GW couldn't put two syllables together...his own mother stated she spent most nights at the kitchen table helping him do his lessons...his fkn eyes were so close together you couldn't slip his platinum card between them. R U FKN kidn me. His IQ was lucky and I am fkn serious here....lucky to be over 100...if he wasn't a legacy child....he wouldn't have been in Yale or Harvard....Do you even know what legacy is you FKN idiot now go fk yourself....you fkn pin headed fkn clueless fck. you have NO and I mean NO business trying to trade this market so get the fk out...no second thot stay in idiot.....

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  12. Kli your showing your bias, Woo Woo LOL :)

    Glad your daughter is doing well! I wish you the best, always scary when things hit the kids....

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  13. and just in case you think I hate "republicans" per se...or that I am "biased" about Bush...His father was bright his brother Jeb is bright...but not George and virtually ALL accounts by insiders in HIS administration politely consider him a fkn MORON..

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  14. Let me guess you voted for Obama. Because, that looked like a typical left wing nut rant. When you can't defend Obama and the DEMS degrade everyone else and call them stupid and an IDIOT!! He is a smooth talking fool and I know I have forgotten more then he will ever know about business. I took over my families buisness when I was 24 and am 36 now. Graduated from Purdue with a BSME degree and am doing quite well in this shitty economy. I am not disagreeing with you that Bush sucked I am just telling you the facts. You brought up IQ and that is the facts. Obama will only put the final nail in the coffin. I enjoy reading your stuff on Gold because I agree with your thoughts on that. So try to stay with that and try not to rant on Bush because he is gone and people don't care about the past president anymore I know I don't. Besides the bulk of the blame for the bad economy needs to be put on Congress and Greenspan. I didn't use one cuss word and would appreciate the same even if you disagree.

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  15. Dat GW he right on smarter than me pappy, out dere putin the garden in diggin round with de ole shovel in the snow, had him a nip outta de pig stie for his lunch today too.

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  16. I did not take over my daddy's business and you don't need a degree to recognize that George Bush was an idiot. I don't really care that you to are a legacy product....And the bulk of the blame on our economy is squarely on OURSELVES....US ....ME YOU ....you are 36 ....you are squarely in the age group that was targeted for sheepdom... WE are an empire and we are in decline.....its fairly simple do the math .....look at the budget and if you can answer the simple question of how to balance the budget then I will apologize to you and kiss your ass right here and withdraw my assumption that you are clueless....its really very clear if you google budget expenditures. And the answer is NEVER discussed in the media NEVER...hint ...it is the item that takes down all empires

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  17. "the only way to get an insight into their behaviour is to evaluate which trend would the dark pools most profit from at any particular point in time i.e. market psychology which usually means the opposite action to the consensus view."

    I dislike statements such as the above. All trends reverse in time, which by default makes the above statement true no matter what the market does.

    Wake up sheeple. We are in a one party system that is bought and paid for by one banking oligarchy. Dems vs Repubs (Libs vs. Cons) is a good science fiction story, designed to pacify you. And it works very well, because most of you here are entirely stuck within the paradigm that has been spoon-fed to you. The media bombards you with lies and you believe it. BAAAAAA! BAAAAA!

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  18. " ... but instead of enjoying a hugely profitable bull run, most small investors have been convinced to WAIT ..."


    Sorry, but this guy sounds like a monday morning QB prick. The market does not act "rationally" in the sense that anything other the the cabal know where the prices will head next. There was NO frickin reason to go stay heavily invested in the market after the initial run-up from March to May 09 (which was a to-be-expected reversal of the heavy bear market trend) ... everything that happenbed over the last 9 months was manipulation and, thus, isn't trust worthy ... heaven for traders maybe, but that's not the average joe.

    ThisWalayat guy - making it sound like he knew EXACTLY where markets would be headed - is just one other delusional fool

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  19. Blog is a tough to read today. So many anonymous opinions, are they one or are they many? ;-)

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  20. Feels like Jammerpoop to me. Must be the jinx of saying follow the EW charts that pulls them in and makes the quality traders disappear.

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  21. Walayat has had a very good track record...so worth a listen....ultimately each one of us has to make up his or her mind on the trigger... this information is VERY confusing...but you cannot play this game without entertaining opinions....YOU pull the trigger.

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  22. It would be easy to balance the budget. Cut spending. Where to cut you say. 1. Social Security. Do a freeze on it and increase the retirement age and eliminate the early retirement. Also make the FICA cap unlimited just as the Medicare tax is. Also, have a means test for Social Security and eliminate the automatic checks once you reach 70-1/2. 2. Defense there is a lot of waste in the defense dept. 3. Eliminate all gov subsidies on food, oil, ect. 4. Line item veto would also help. 5. Pork spending on pet project like the Lousiana Purchase and The cornhusker payoff, this should be illegal because it is a BRIBE. I could go on but have to go. By the way I am not a legacy kid. I had to buy the company from my Dad and since have tripled its sales in the 12 years. I would also like to say fire every congressman/woman and lets start fresh.

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  23. By the way I do think owning Gold and Silver is a good Idea. I hope gold would correct a little more so I can get back in later. Also, I prefer GDX and GDXJ over individual miners even though I have owned AUY and GFI and still own a small bit of AUY and FCX

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  24. This post is targeted for those bitches who complain like babies. Market is gambling assholes, make up your own minds and stop bitching about walayat or any other author, at least he has a prediction, what's your prediction? You are also cowards since like scared sheeple, you do not even have the guts to mention your name, bitching under anon is the worst coward on earth.

    Jim Mason

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  25. Took some guts Jim......hehehe good job....post away man.......

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  26. So what is your prediction Jim Mason?

    George Bush

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  27. kli, like your blog and have been reading it for a while, this was my first post here. Enjoy reading your analysis along with palmer.

    Jim Mason

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  28. Jim Mason, what ya doin online here pappy, you pull yerself outta that pigstie yet? You better put yer wet suit on for dese dere food fighters. Thems wants that dere Kli postin crap te scare away those genious peopul that post ore here now n then. Where be that dere palmer and dat quant guy wid his spx posts n big language talkin?

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  29. I agree with following statement from walayat:

    "Technically we have had a major sell signal on break of the main uptrend line which means the current correction has YET to bottom, my target is eventually a bottom at 9,500 to 9,800 after a corrective B wave rally towards 10,300,"

    Jim Mason

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  30. Jim,

    Good catch, I saw it this morning when I was reading it.

    palmer

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  31. Just logged on, and saw over 20 comments posted!! I was hoping most of them were from Kli, Joe, Analyze, and Temo. These are the four you should all listen to and learn from. I have been following them for over a year and half, starting from the old SKF board. They have been more correct than ANYONE. I rarely post, but read this blog daily. So if you want to post garbage, go to the yahoo boards. Oh and I think Jim Mason should have the official title of head of PR for this blog; nice post Jim. Good luck to all the regular readers, and thank you Joe, Analyze, Temo, and especially Kli.

    Rhino

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  32. Analyze,

    I did not trade today, had other commitments. How was your day?

    palmer

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  33. Well!! I was going to respond to Anon "I own a Business" but I thought dinner first!! Gotta have your priorities in order :) But Jim, I couldn't have said it any better than that :) Way to go!!!

    btw: I never met a business owner that advocated increasing their tax liability to fix a problem in Washington.... never mind throw Mom & Dad under the Bus, Anon - Get outta here you Jerk!!!

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  34. All,

    Please keep this blog clean and focus should be on stock market and trading. I understand very well how politics play a role in this mess, but there is a time and place for it. Use SKF board which many of you post there for political discussions.

    palmer

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  35. Palmer, very little activity for me as well today, one whipsaw trade that was a waste of time as I was also tied up. I would rather see a commitment one way or the other for better trending, my 1104 target from 2 days ago was hit, and now it has been a sticking point. There is a very slight bullish bias at this level, but a coin flip frankly in terms of general posture. We are in limbo here just playing the lower timeframes until the commitment comes, I also want to stay open to the scenario that we could just have another consolidation level here like Nov-Dec as well, relates to an earlier post I made about reversals not necessarily happening this year like last, but instead significant moves followed by those phases. In a general sense it feels like more downside is needed for anyone to commit to going long anything off a daily timeframe though. - Analyze.

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  36. Rhino, accolades to you. I too found them on the SKF board and follow them as an anchor in these awful times. If they are reading this post, I'd appreciate a comment or two on the Jim Willie article on goldseek. GL to you, too. Sister

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  37. Analyze,

    So far which is very early what walayat mentioned holds true. His call is for retracement to DOW 9500/9700, unless 9500 ( wall) is broken then it can fall to 8600. When you get a chance read his analysis. I never disregard anything in this market which is the main reason I gap trade till market gives me better direction.

    palmer

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  38. Palmer, I didn't read the link but will take a look at it. Even some of the gaps are getty dicey now based on indecision, essentially any significant move either way hits contrarian pressure after any run and is batted down in a hard reversal. It will break, flexibility without a bias coming in is key to be able to pull the trigger with the larger trend when it materializes. - Analyze.

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  39. Politics are integral in this mess but my focus and yours is to put it aside. This is about survival and perhaps profit. The blame game is a waste even though we all have strong opinions. We should all be aware that there is no party supporting us or the country. As politics influence the market I will continue to draw attention. For instance I believe the budget deficit is indicative that we will continue to print money.

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  40. Analyze,

    This is the meat of what walayat is saying, it can be argued and even dismissed by some which is fine by me, future will tell if he was as correct as last yr or not. Him along with Clif Droke were one of the first ones who called for the stealth market we had last yr and they called it in March. Any way here is the bulk of what he says:

    "SUPPORT / RESISTANCE - There is a series of strong support in the region of 10,000 to 9,800. and then 9,500. Should 9,500 break then the Dow could tumble all the way to 50% of the rally at 8,600. Overhead resistance lies at 10,300, then 10,400. With strong resistance in the region of the 10,600 to the high of 10,726. It will probably take some time for this resistance to be overcome. Next resistance above is at 11,250 that may mark a pause in the uptrend if it breaks higher enroute towards the target for 2010.

    PRICE TARGETS - Downside price targets resolve into the 9,500 to 9,800 zone, therefore this should contain the current correction, a failure here would negate this analysis and probably mark the end of the bull market which initially targets a decline to 8,600. Upside projections show difficulty in breaking above the 10,729 high, though once overcome the Dow would target a level north of 12k.

    VOLUME - Volume has been WEAK throughout the rally, which has been one of the main reasons why so much commentary has been bearish during the rally. However it is perfectly inline with that of a stealth bull market and also implies that this rally has NOT been bought into. So all of the talk of hyper bullishness investor sentiment is basically rubbish as there is no sign of such sentiment in the volume, which remains heavier on the declines than the rallies and thus suggestive of SELLING rather than buying into the rally.

    Risks to the Forecast

    Technically we have had a major sell signal on break of the main uptrend line which means the current correction has YET to bottom, my target is eventually a bottom at 9,500 to 9,800 after a corrective B wave rally towards 10,300, the C wave decline should hold at this, however if 9,500 goes then this at least implies a bear market that initially targets 8,600.

    The primary risk for the end to the bull market is that the central banks pull the plug on easy money as a consequence of a series of sovereign debt crisis. I.e. forced to push interest rates much higher than forecast to prevent a bond market / monetary collapse. In reality the governments have a window of opportunity to benefit form the strong economic recovery currently underway to CUT the budget deficits and get a grip on debt to GDP ratios. If they waste this opportunity then this forecast could fail as it resolves towards a bear market trend back towards the March 2009 lows.

    However I put this risk at this point in time at about 25%, small but significant. It really depends on the economic bounce being as strong as I forecast it to be which will carry the markets AHEAD of it, and inflation and consumer confidence along with it therefore allowing deficits to be cut along side economic growth".

    palmer

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  41. kli,

    i was refering to RAW politics which is easy to get pulled in with passions on all sides, that needs to be avoided here.

    palmer

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  42. That's good info. For example, the 2 month long consolidation level Nov-Dec I think I referred to in a past post as a false-bottom, matches his comment about sentiment toward the lack of commitment behind the rally. No way does a real consolidation level like that break on the first touch barring catastrophic news in a "real" market, but it was blown through on the first try on this swing. Good comment too about volume as well, that has constantly been a point of doubt all the way up, although some of us that were ponzi-aligned were not worried about it. Those levels he posted are good to watch for whichever way it breaks from here. - Analyze.

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  43. Kliguy,
    This is your guy who is the business owner earlier. Your last post was right on the spot. The political rants both way don't matter. We are going to inflate our way to destruction. I do believe the dollar will get stronger. But that doesn't mean that gold will get weaker. I believe the dollar can get a lot stronger and gold maintain or even go up a little. I would love the dollar to cause gold to go to 900 and silver to 10. I would not only buy the etf's but also physical as well. Just don't trust the bankers and the gov. Its amazing that you went off on me about Bush, when you and I believe a lot of the same thing. We are goning down the path of Rome. Also, I agree the market is rigged and it really pisses me off to see GS as a bank holding company and they can use our money to day trade if they like. That is Manipulation at its finest.

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  44. Kli,

    What is your thoughts on CCJ. I have owned this in the past and kinda like it. By the way I am the business owner and I will start posting under my name.

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  45. Ty Palmer...like all of your posts tonite... your forecast is insightful and reasonable to me..thanks!
    Simple to see based on some of the posts this evening, folks are really getting pissed(pardon my French...:))about the lousy messy state of affairs we all find ourselves in. As far as I'm concerned, does it really matter now how we got here at this point? Place blame where you will, but, what is most important and God help us, is how on earth do we get out of this mess of insanity? The damage is done...now we need to just do massive damage control as best as we can.
    Thanks to all of you that post(some pretty smart folks here)...I suggest a group hug, now...:) GL to all! TexasBlondie

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  46. Jeff,

    CCJ moves based on uranium prices and the status of overall market. New facilities for nuclear sites which CCJ is involved will take time and requires red tape approval,,etc. If you like the stock, wait till current correction in overall market is done before entry.

    palmer

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  47. "Why So Serious?"

    Really at these indecision points in a heavily rigged casino, some of the participants seem to stay too focus on the short term trading action or find excuses in politicotainment from the latest sock pocket or what passes as the last days of the Roman Senate.

    Too keep the Ponzi alive and continue to extract productivity and keep the velocity of money flowing from those stilled employed IRA sheeple, a sense of value must be instilled in their "investments".

    Back to the markets, I generally ignore the DOW myself these days since, the components have been swapped out much too frequently and really are getting more meaningless from a weighting or trading perspective, more for the TV tube crowd, and focus more on the S&P as it is a more broader cross section of the action not subject to heavy bias.

    Just my opinion following (based on a quick look of the daily and weekly bollinger bands for the S&P) don't trade on it you may lose lots of money and sanity.
    Short term next week or so bias is still down towards S&P 1065, will we get there straight or going to 1115 first, only GS knows and nobody else should really care frankly unless they enjoy being b!tch slapped in a whipsaw manner. Intermediate term over a few weeks to a month, downside target is still around 1030. Two points to consider at the current point of inflection indecision and depending on policy choices made above everybody here's pay grade or year end bonus, a bounce around here at the 20 week moving average (midpoint of the weekly Bollinger Band) would limit the momentum energy to around 1160 and then signalling a top to be sold into and a long period of sideways trading lower, a bounce at the 1030 level would try and re-create the momentum seen last in the V bottom and would lift the S&P to around 1230 before peaking out, but in policy makers eyes they hope to have the same repeat action seen last March, not going to happen since big market participants realize the stagflation implications of what lies in store at S&P 1230.

    Miners should follow, not so sure about physical gold itself in lock step, don't be surprised about $50 drops or swings either.

    As for the US dollar it should continue higher in the short term but the critical test is still the psycho level at 80, very easy if they give in to the Greece problems as an excuse to devalue to the Euro, bad for US stocks going forward but we will have to wait for the timing of the Euro's competitive devaluation, beggar thy trading partner to help jump start their trade and employment situation.

    As for balancing the budget, dream on - happy talk to our creditors holding US Treasuries, nobody in power wants to see Alpo and unemployment riots on TV from their home districts.

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  48. Bush himself and his associates were worse than Obama himself and his associates. Bush's executive branch has been worse than Obama's (so far). The reason the democrats are such a problem is that the party in general is made up of unpatriotic sellouts and a few patriotic cowards. They sell their souls to pass legislation. Not to be confused with socialism.

    It's possible to fix our political system, but we aren't going to do it. First, modernize and equalize the political primaries. Second, and this is gonna sound crazy, the general public needs to pay attention to what the congress says and does. Democracy works exactly as well as we want it to, but we the people have stopped caring. We trust our thinking to others and vote along party lines while we busy ourselves with other things, and inso doing condemn ourselves to tyranny.

    Tyranny is not one man or group of men, it is a force of nature. Apathy and ignorance lead to incompetence, incompetence leads to tyranny. After thousands of years you'd think we'd have figured it out.

    Until we learn as a people that we have to care (and learn) about the government this situation can only get worse, regardless of who's in charge.

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  49. Great discussion sorry I wasnt available to participate. Been on the road all day.

    Rhino and Jim welcome to the board.

    Still short XRA small slw and jag long. Dollar sure looks like it wants Kli's 81 target.

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