Friday, February 5, 2010

UNEMPLOYMENT 9.7% ALL IS GOOD update II

Relax have a beer. Pull your credit cards out and let's ROCK n ROLL. Do you believe that GS the Fed the GOV spent all of last year manipulating the market to restore the CON in CONfidence....only to let it all collapse suddenly in the first of 2010?? Ask yourself if GS is going to continue to employee thousands of bankers by tanking the stock market to the depths of hell? Do you think that the President is REALLY substantively going after the big bankers. Not with both houses of congress solidly in the bankers pockets. Sorry if you think this is the big one but not gonna buy it. Not yet. You will have to to break 940 for me to swallow that load of chit.

Anyway back to a better cuisine. This is the very reason your portfolio had better have a lot of that physical metal in it.

This is probably still in a bottoming process even though we are currently oversold so be patient. Remember own a core of miners now and HOPE they get whacked over the next few weeks. Trade um here if you like. But most of all patience.GL

UPDATE: Supports and resistance to watch, thanks joe:

Oil: Watch and see if 69.5 holds, if it does not then 65 is the next support . DTO is a nice one to short oil.
Gold: 1050 is the first support here, if it breaks and holds then 1020/1030 is the next support and after that 980.
Dollar: There is heavy resistance around 81.50, if it gets there and breaks it then 83 is the possibility.
palladium: 362 is the support, this is for those of you who like to play SWC and PAL.
Silver: 15 is the support, if it breaks then 14 is the next support.
S&P 500: 1035 is the support, if it breaks then 1020 , 1006, and 980.


Update I 3:35 : WTF ....can your believe it??? shocking just shocking..they reversed the slaughter now they are squeezing the balls off the shorts. hehhee....love this game its the best. Remember ..Masters of the Universe.

UpdateII Must now watch for confirmation on Monday ,Tuesday of the miners move to see today's closing as just short covering for week-end or not. Watch for correlation. ESPECIALLY if market is weak and miners are holding. Be aware of reversal today which requires confirmation next week .....if dollar goes past 81.5 then with the Greek and Euro mess miners will take a further beating.

72 comments:

  1. Amen brother. This thing won't collapse until I would say after the election. Just a thought.

    Jeff

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  2. maybe a bit more downside, possibly S&P 1040/30. we trade the range and dont crash at least until the election.

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  3. More than a thot jeff/temo......its one of the key time elements.....the counterargument is will the REAL economic issues overwhelm the ponzi.....

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  4. I think it can as long as GS and the FED wants it to. I think if GS were to lose it bank holding status, LOOK OUT!!! Gold up market down Fear through the roof. I do see cracks in the Ponzi but its going to take time.
    Jeff

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  5. This is just whipsaw period here in the early going, I am playing nothing until I see a real breakdown or one of my higher targets to fade. No rush. - Analyze.

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  6. I am with you Analyze. Bulls and Bears both sitting on their hands. I dont see any playable gaps long or short

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  7. Patience is a mthrfkr......and I find it most difficult to master

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  8. Temo, MTL. - Analyze

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  9. Temo,

    playable gap today which was a gift was DTO, it gave $2 gap.

    palmer

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  10. SWC just gave a nice gap as well, almost 0.40 gap.

    palmer

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  11. Goro showing some life...

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  12. Also I was watching silver which at the support of 15 gave me a nice entry fopr SLW at 13.07, now SLW is at 13.50. You guys need to do more study on physical supports of silver, and palladium and then do your entries on miners based on that for gap trades or swing trading. Great day to play the market today.

    palmer

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  13. Excess greed kills, and so does excess fear, THINK like GS and follow technicals including supports and resistance and you can make money in worst markets.

    palmer

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  14. Joe did you catch SSRI 0.70 so far

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  15. do you use kitco charts? Thanks.

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  16. Temo,

    I did not play SSRi, playing SLW which moves in line with physical price of silver, and playing SWC which moves with physical price of palladium. I saw palladium price last night droped below 400, around 383 and this morning when SWC dropped, that gave me the gap I wanted since stock price overreacts especially in the down side to the physical.

    palmer

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  17. Anon,

    I use kitco charts and also do my own home work .
    Goldseek.com had a very nice chart and analysis of metals couple of days ago as well. You need to put the work and do studies if you want to make money.

    palmer

    palmer

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  18. As far as Gold is concerned, the first main support for physical is 1050 which so far has held, it got close and bounced and that gave me the gap I wanted for today.

    palmer

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  19. I'm flat in MTL Temo, promising start but 1053 proved a big problem. Still with the trade though, ready to bail if it doesn't turn our though. - Analyze.

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  20. Market still red.....miners looking strong.

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  21. SLW at 13.80 now, nice bounce from 13.07.

    palmer

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  22. All,

    Watch the dollar index as well, very important,another $1 and dollar will meet strong resistance, if it reaches 81.5 and breaks it then 83 will be a good possibility, so watch dollar index clkosely especially next week. EUO is doing well so far.

    palmer

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  23. Just a bit of red shows up....die, die, lol - Analyze.

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  24. DTO exploding!

    palmer

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  25. Analyze,

    How come you are not playing DTO? In the down market which takes oil down, DTO performs great. I understand it's risky but that's the nature of the market.

    palmer

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  26. Took profits in MTL, will watch it going forward here. - Analyze.

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  27. Good point Palmer, I need to switch around some ponies I'm riding here. - Analyze.

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  28. Analyze,

    Support for crude Oil is at 69.50, watch for that support, it did not break it yet, if it does then DTO will really fly.

    palmer

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  29. Palmer...is support after that @65? What say you? TXBlondie

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  30. TB,

    check out the updates just posted in BOLD for above article.

    palmer

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  31. They're protecting 1053 like the family jewels here. Break that we get another leg down. - Analyze.

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  32. Looking good, hit SPY front months here. - Analyze.

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  33. Analyze,

    No problem with 1053, GONE!

    palmer

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  34. Hehehe, oh my... - Analyze.

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  35. Analyze ... you mean buying SPY calls?

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  36. drip drip drip.....but miners still holding relatively well...they do seem to have had an earlier correction than the rest of the market..

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  37. There, covered it, not in the mood to ride another bearflag out and see my pos degrade. - Analyze.

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  38. Holy sht no Anon, front month puts on that last swing with the 1053 break. - Analyze.

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  39. Damnit...too early on the exit at 1046, that is getting too far extended and should flag anyway. Good run anyway. - Analyze.

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  40. what i thought but it's a relief to hear you haven't gone bonkers

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  41. AUY gaining strength and ANV SSRI etc....hmmmmm

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  42. kli,

    you vulture, what are you implying? Let it out.

    palmer

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  43. sky is falling every one, crush the miners more, RED and kli are watching like a vulture.

    palmer

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  44. my patience is wearing thin....i am increasing my core....does that make me an investor

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  45. No kli, that makes you an unpatient vulture. Patience is a virtue.

    palmer

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  46. kli,

    NO EMOTION when it comes to market, remember!

    palmer

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  47. Market down, silver down, and SLW holding.

    palmer

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  48. yes it does - I'm think I'm going for more miners, last time I got greedy waiting for an entry, I got shut out. I'm at least getting more AUY, ANV and EGO, first time buy of GFI and I went in too early on SWC/PAL but not in a lot so thinking of bringing them up more as well. My core is thin at best, more like a seed.

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  49. Homer,

    You are reading buddy, how is evrything?

    palmer

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  50. Homer,

    There is a huge difference between you and KLI, you buy little, that vulture kli wants to devour evrything.

    palmer

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  51. I'm finished shorting anything today, if I miss a final hurrah into the close so be it. Not worth the risk, all my ponies are knackered here. Great trading day. - Analyze.

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  52. Not putting my foot in the water until I see them trap the bears celebrating in their P3 orgy call for the slaughter around S&P 1025-30, small chance may overshoot to the 990 level. Based on daily and weekly charts and lower Bollinger Bands. Will start building a core of gold miners around there as paper gold and miners get the smackdown, may add some PBR and CVM also.

    Don't doubt for a minute everything is being carefully choreographed down to the news/entertainment blurbs.

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  53. That's what happens when I try to type here and speaking German at the same time to a guest, the word "impatient" becomes " unpatient". Sign of aging.

    palmer

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  54. Absolutely red.....but THEY are dipping their tows now......but I agree SnP has most likely further but then again.....THEY know that too

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  55. hey joe - I seem to have time to read on fridays, and yes, vulture seems an apt description. ;-) Love the chance to buy more here and would not mind if it went another leg down...

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  56. I think the chance is high for them to overshoot the 200MA by a decent margin, and then rip it back in the other direction, it definitely would be an appropriate way to start a big leg up. - Analyze.

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  57. Red,

    bingo!

    patience,patience,patience.

    palmer

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  58. Joe......any comments on the strong miners here with market getting clobbered....whose the buyers .....look at the volume i know its not all you.....heheh

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  59. kli,

    some of it is short covering, how ever you need more than just today for confirmation of trend change.

    palmer

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  60. kli,

    The movie " From Paris With Love" is out today. Let me know what you think of John's moves.

    palmer

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  61. Did my comment of "I'm finished shorting anything here today" save anyone's azz? ;;;;;; - yep, those are all winks. - Analyze.

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  62. physical Gold just went positive, let's see if it holds.

    palmer

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  63. Wunder if they will take their foot off the throats of the miner shorts on monday ;-)...

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  64. Looks like someone wants to finish off this down draft sometime next week and let some of their closest buds in on the GS playbook.

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  65. total bitch slap to the miner shorts....volume

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  66. look at SLW volume double average 14 million

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  67. Guess I was too late for the cheap AUY, well there's always next week I guess..

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  68. They may have more blood to go Morla......

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  69. This is from EWI...You guys know I'm short silver via ZSL and holding puts on the SLV...I'm posting this update...you guys be careful! TexasBlondie
    "The longer-term chart of gold’s wave structure is as suggestive of a big draft lower as those of the dollar and euro. On Wednesday, it looked like gold might want to dance back and forth across the trendline that supported the rise up from October 2008, but the pull away from this level over the last two days is very visible on the chart. The wave ii (circled) high at 1126.20 should hold and lead to much lower levels. If a wave (ii) rally is in effect, it should hold below $1106 and lead to even more furious selling in wave (iii).




    [Silver], with its blast down and out of the trend channel that carried it up from the $8.39 low of October 2008, is the star of the show. The brevity of its early February correction and the force of its decline through the middle of trading today are a first taste of the decline we expect across the breadth of the financial markets. On Wednesday, we were looking for the mini-silver contract to carry to the $17.12-$17.27 area, but its inability to breach the $17 level, followed by such a quick drop through the $16.02 support level, $15.99 spot, suggests powerfully that silver’s bear market is back. If the latest steps lower are any indication, and we believe they are, the trip back to $8.39 should be quicker than that of wave (1). Silver spent much of the last several weeks clanging back and forth between support and resistance in the $16 to $18 range. We do not expect it to make it back into this range. The wave i (circled) low just below $16 should hold and lead to much lower prices. If it surprises and returns to its former haunts, the wave 2 high at $18.92 should hold."

    Next Update: Monday, February 8, 2010.
    --Peter Kendall, co-editor, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.

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