Wednesday, March 31, 2010


(Reuters) - Gold rose toward $1,120 an ounce on Wednesday as the dollar declined against the euro, and platinum group metals also gained nearly 2 percent due to supply fears and strong physical demand.

Gold ended the first quarter up 1.4 percent.

Palladium rallied to a two-year high, and platinum climbed to just below a 20-month high after the world's No. 3 platinum producer Lonmin (LMI.L) said its largest furnace was shut with repairs expected to take over a month.

Sharp inflows into the first U.S. platinum and palladium exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and optimism about the auto industry's recovery have spurred buying of platinum group metals.

"There have been positive trends in industrial and jewelry demand, particularly from China, and we expect to see more investment demand driven by the ETFs," said Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager of Midas Fund MIDSX.O.

Winmill said flat output of platinum group metals combined with a recovering global auto industry led by China should boost platinum and palladium prices.

More than half of the world's output of platinum group metals is used as catalytic converter to clean exhaust fumes from vehicles.

For the first quarter, palladium and platinum ended the first quarter 17 percent and 12 percent higher respectively, surpassing the single-digit gains posted by gold and silver.

Palladium hit a high of $483.50 an ounce, its loftiest since March 2008. It was last at $475 an ounce, up from $466.5 late in New York on Tuesday.

Platinum jumped to $1,648.50 an ounce, just below a 20-month high of $1,654 reached on January 20. It was last at $1,639.50 an ounce, up from $1,616.50.

"Investors have come back in, they've just got the bug. Overall, there's been some physical buying of platinum and palladium," said Commerzbank trader Rory McVeigh.

Palladium and platinum prices began to rally after ETF Securites Ltd. launched the first U.S. PGM exchange traded funds in early January, which now have about 900,000 ounces of the combined metals.

Platinum was also underpinned by worries about supplies from South Africa, the world's largest producer of the metal.


Spot gold was at $1,112.45 an ounce at 3:42 p.m. EDT, up from $1,102.50 an ounce late in New York on Tuesday.

U.S. June gold futures ended up $8.80 at $1,114.50 an ounce.

The dollar fell against the euro after ADP Employer Services said its data showed U.S. private employers unexpectedly shed jobs in March. The report stoked concern about the economy two days before the closely followed government payrolls report.

"The ADP report came in weaker than expected, pushing the dollar down and gold higher. Fundamentals are bullish for gold, there's inflation concerns, Asian central bank buying, huge debt in the OECD," said Societe Generale analyst Jesper Dannesboe.

While heading for its sixth consecutive quarter of gains, gold was still about 10 percent below a record high around $1,226 struck in December. Also, the first quarter's rise was the smallest in the last three quarters.

Silver was last at $17.44 from $17.25. It was 3.6 percent higher for the quarter.


Sorry ......on the run for an hour... Looks like a very interesting day here with dow down 50 ...ADP numbers terrible. So be very careful shorting here. I look for reversal and a short squeeze. Miners gold silve all ripping nicely.

Will try to put an update soon on....but actively trading now.

Update I If you are able to read or make copies of this pdf...then do so to give to your associates when discussing the precious metals market. This is an inside job that is very on target. The longer term implications are apparent.

update II

London Gold Market Report

THE PRICE OF GOLD & SILVER bullion rose against a weakening US Dollar in London on Wednesday, ticking higher as Asian shares ended the day lower and European stock markets held flat.

"A close above $1097 today will give gold its sixth consecutive quarterly gain," says the daily note from Mitsui's London team.

"Silver fixes higher in Europe, gold firm," says Reuters, repeating Tuesday morning's headline.

The Euro rose towards a 1-week high against the Dollar meantime on the currency market, while the British Pound jumped once again to breach a near-2 week high at $1.5150.

"Spot gold in Euros remains well bid and did not even [dip to] our previously forecast €800 support region," writes Axel Rudolph, technical analyst at Luxembourg's Commerzbank, in his latest weekly report.

Staying "short-term bullish" on silver, "We remain medium-term neutral as long as the silver price remains contained within its three month resistance line at 17.97 and the 15.59 late-Feb. low," says Rudolph.

Adding 7.7% against both the Euro and Pound Sterling since the start of Jan. 2010, the gold price today rose above $1110 per ounce for Dollar investors.

Silver today came within 10 cents of a 10-week high at $17.61 per ounce, some 4.1% higher from the first-quarter's start.

"Whenever gold falls we see good physical buying coming in," the Reuters newswire quotes one Europe-based trader.

"Even on the private customer side, there's pretty good demand for coins and bars."

New data meantime said on Wednesday that private-sector employers in the United States shed 23,000 jobs last month.

update III
just another day of consolidation on the miners still looking like a base

update IV here is some help temo

Tuesday, March 30, 2010


I love hyperbole. I can't help myself. After all this is history. I perused seveal news articles and blogs but really couldn't come up with an eyecatching story today. But last nights NBC news piece on state's budget deficits kept resonating in my head. They threw out a figure of 380 BILLION dollars as a total which stopped me dead in my tracks. I couldn't even wrap my imagination around that. So I checked last years total and it was 110 billion. What in the hell is happening to us? Have we gone mad. Oh wait that already has happened.

Never mind.....let's get back to the matter at hand and that is THE PLAY. Keep your eyes on the miners still. The PTB wants gold down and are accumulating. So this could play out for awhile longer. I am seeing short term bullish signs so be sharp. Will try to update more today so gl.

update I thnx red...;_ylt=A9G_R0ihabJLbj4A1H27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1cDZqZW1tBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNjYWxpZm9ybmlhbG8-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

update II......just when you thought it was safe to inflate yourself out of debt..

The key item missing from most commentary on this subject matter is debt and liabilities that are denominated in foreign currencies as that can mask a stealth trend towards potentially imminent bankruptcy that can suddenly blow up in the face of a countries citizens who had been previously mislead by official statistics into thinking that the debt situation was under control, much as Icelanders experienced during 2008 where one day they enjoyed one of the highest standards of living amongst westerners to next day wake up to be bankrupt and poorer in terms of purchasing power than many third world countries. The key driver for state bankruptcy and currency collapse is the amount a country owes or is liable to foreigners, as debt denominated in foreign currencies cannot be inflated away as governments can do with domestic debt so it is one of the primary driving forces for a country going bankrupt as it is unable to meet the increasing interest payments due in foreign currency as its own currency falls.

"In matters of grave importance, style, not sincerity is the vital thing." oscar wilde

Sunday, March 28, 2010

WANNA BET ME ? update I

Its not there. And when the "biggest ponzi of all" unravels it will be an explosion heard round the worrrrlllld. I love a great conspiracy. No....I did not say conspiracy theory.........CONSPIRACY. Is it true? SAY IT AINT SO JOE. Hehehehe...sorry couldn't help myself. Just more fodder for what the last two years have wrought for truth, justice and the American Way.

The last sentence of his statement is mind-blowing. He says the “physical” positions of the bullion banks are so huge that they are much bigger than the COMEX short position. He says the “physicals” are hedged on the OTC market in London! Did you get that? Let me walk you through it. The bullion banks are selling what is supposed to be vault gold but it is just a ledger entry if the customer never asks for delivery. They must balance their exposure with a ledger deposit entry. This has to be some paper promise of gold from a third party, or some derivative, or even some real gold bullion. If all the ledger entries balance out then the bullion bank has no net exposure in exactly the same way the futures market works with a short offsetting a long. A futures market can never default if no one asks for delivery as only paper contracts are traded. The loosely defined “physical” London market is an identical scheme. As long as everyone is prepared to buy and sell “ledger entries” for imaginary gold in the vault no one will ever discover the fraud.

The LBMA does, however, buy and sell some real physical metal as well. But we now know form Mr. Christian’s testimony that this is one one-hundredth the size of the paper gold trading. The LBMA states on its website that it trades 20 million ozs of gold each day on a net basis. We can calculate the net trade of REAL physical gold should be about 200,000 ozs each day; that is 6.25 tonnes per day or 1625 tonnes per year. This is very much in line with the size of total global mining output of approximately 2200 tonnes per year.

So the giant Ponzi trading of gold ledger entries can be sustained only if there is never a liquidity crisis in the REAL physical market. If someone asks for gold and there isn’t any the default would trigger the biggest “bank run” and default in history. This is, of course, why the Central Banks lease their gold or sell it outright to the bullion banks when they are squeezed by high demand for REAL physical gold that can not be met from their own stocks.

Almost every day we hear of a new financial fraud that has been exposed. The gold and silver market fraud is likely to be bigger than all of them. Investors in their droves, who have purchased gold in good faith in “unallocated accounts”, are going to demand delivery of their metal. They will then discover that there is only one ounce for every one hundred ounces claimed. They will find out they are “unsecured creditors”.

(Reuters) - Gold hit its highest in more than a week on Monday as risk appetite increased, while silver and platinum group metals also rose sharply as economic optimism boosted demand for industrial commodities.

Palladium, which has had the best performance among precious metals year-to-date, was lifted by heavy buying as investors covered short positions after the price had dropped about $30 last week.

Dollar weakness against the euro amid easing concerns about Greece and better physical demand from India led to buying in gold and other precious metals, said Peter Buchanan, senior economist of CIBC World Markets.

"Stronger-than-expected economic data in China and Europe reduces risk aversion, helping the euro and gold and other commodities," he said.

Palladium, platinum and silver, widely used as industrial metals, rallied after a report said that China's annual economic growth will reach 12 percent this quarter following strong industrial output growth last month.

Spot gold was at $1,108.45 an ounce at 3:01 p.m. EDT, versus $1,105.10 late in New York on Friday. Earlier in the session, bullion reached a high of $1,114.45 an ounce, the loftiest level

U.S. April gold futures settled up $6 at $1,110.30 an ounce on the COMEX division of the NYMEX.

The euro strengthened as debt-stricken Greece sold seven-year bonds, and gold's safe-haven appeal also increased as investors remained anxious about the country's long-term fiscal health.

"The market thinks this Greek problem has been solved. We saw excellent physical demand last week and it's continuing," said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance.

Higher-than-expected gains in German inflation also suggested decent pick-up in growth in the euro zone.

"Gold is attracting money in its own right as a currency. Gold is still an alternative to currencies, which is helping to keep prices buoyant," said Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank


Now those were the songs.....Droke has a nice piece to read that should give your mind something to wrap around gl today.

In the current phase of relative peace and stability we now enjoy, many are questioning when the next major war may occur and speculation is rampant as to major participants involved. Our concern here is strictly of a financial nature, however, and a discussion of the geopolitical and military variables involved in the escalation of war is beyond the scope of this commentary. But what we can divine from financial history is that “hot” wars in a military sense often emerge from trade wars. As we shall see, the elements for what could prove to be a trade war of epic proportions are already in place and the key figures are easily identifiable.

Last Wednesday the lead headline in the Wall Street Journal stated, “Business Sours on China.” It seems, according to WSJ, that Beijing is “reassessing China’s long-standing emphasis on opening its economy to foreign business….and tilting toward promoting dominant state companies.” Then there is Internet search giant Google’s threat to pull out of China over concerns of censorship of its Internet search results in that country.

The trouble started a few weeks ago Google announced that it no longer supports China’s censoring of searches that take place on the Google platform. China has defended its extensive censorship after Google threatened to withdraw from the country.

Additionally, the Obama Administration announced that it backs Google’s decision to protest China’s censorship efforts. In a Reuters report, Obama responded to a question as to whether the issue would cloud U.S.-China relations by saying that the human rights would not be “carved out” for certain countries. This marks at least the second time this year that the White House has taken a stand against China (the first conflict occurring over tire imports).

Adding yet further fuel to the controversy, the U.S. Treasury Department is expected to issue a report in April that may formally label China as a “currency manipulator,” according to the latest issue of Barron’s. This would do nothing to ease tensions between the two nations and would probably lead one step closer to a trade war between China and the U.S.

Then there was last week’s Wall Street Journal report concerning authorities in a wealthy province near Shanghai criticizing the quality of luxury clothing brands from the West, including Hermes, Tommy Hilfiger and Versace. This represents quite a change from years past when the long-standing complaint from the U.S. over the inferior quality of Chinese made merchandise.

On Monday the WSJ ran an article under the headline, “American Firms Feel Shut Out In China.” The paper observed that so far there’s little evidence that American companies are pulling out of China but adds a growing number of multinational firms are “starting to rethink their strategy.” According to a poll conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, 38% of U.S. companies reported feeling unwelcome in China compared to 26% in 2009 and 23% in 2008.

As if to add insult to injury, the high profile trial of four Rio Tinto executives in China is another example of the tables being turned on the West. The executives are by Chinese authorities of stealing trade secrets and taking bribes. There’s a touch of irony to this charge considering that much of China’s technology was stolen from Western manufacturing firms which set up shop in that country.

Saturday, March 27, 2010


This is ultimately going to end very badly for all aspects of our country .....when and how .....who knows. But with this current proverbial "rock and a hard place" the Fed is backing itself into, I suspect within then next 2 years. Nice article to read.....

Then, in January 2000, investors put close to $44 billion dollars into stock mutual funds, according to the Investment Company Institute, shattering the previous one-month record of $28.5 billion. We all know the story from there. Money continued to pour into stock funds, breaking records for February and March and pushing the NASDAQ to 5,000, only to lose half its value by October 2002.

This gets worse. That same October (at the low for the cycle), as investors were selling stocks as fast as they could, where was all the money going? Into bond funds, at a time when bond prices were near record highs.

Think about this pattern for a minute. At the top of the market we can’t buy fast enough. About three years later at the bottom, we can’t sell fast enough. And we repeat that over and over until we’re broke. No wonder most people are unsatisfied with their investing experience.

Now we might be doing it again. Over the last year, investors have put an estimated $506 billion into mutual funds, but $409 billion of that went into bond funds. Let me repeat that: Of the total of over $506 billion, $409 billion went into bond funds.

No one is sure how this will turn out. But with interest rates again near record lows (meaning bond prices are near record highs), you could end up losing money in that bond fund you bought for the purpose of making sure you don’t lose money.

To be clear, the solution here is not to sell your bond funds. It is not to buy stock funds. The point is to recognize that, in aggregate, investors tend to be very bad at timing the market.

It makes far more sense to ignore what the crowd is doing and base your investment decisions on what you need to reach your goals, then stick with the plan despite the fear or greed you may feel. To do otherwise would be following a pattern that has proven to be extraordinarily painful.

update I 1800 : London Gold Market Report

THE PRICE OF WHOLESALE gold bullion gave back an early bounce from yesterday's 6-week low for Dollar investors on Thursday, slipping back to $1090 as Chinese shares closed the day lower, but European and US stocks rose.

Little changed for Sterling buyers, gold was higher against the Euro as European leaders met to discuss the Eurozone debt crisis.

"We don't see decisive actions telling the market we can solve this," said Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China – and a special advisor to the International Monetary Fund from next month – after German chancellor Angela Merkel said the meeting would discuss possible IMF and partner support for Greece, but "no concrete help".

The government of Dubai meantime pumped $9.5 billion into the ailing Dubai World property group – 60% of it using emergency loans made by neighboring Abu Dhabi.

"Gold [was] a battleground between the Euro and Chinese buyers today," said one Hong Kong dealer earlier. "Chinese buying wanted to push it higher, but the Euro pulled lower.

"Silver prices mostly followed gold in tandem," bouncing from a 3-week low at $16.53 an ounce.

Looking at Wednesday's New York action, several analysts point to the Dollar gold price falling through "the neckline of a head and shoulders top" – a chart-formation which "bodes ill for the near future" – around $1090.

"Gold is now looking at a crucial support level at $1080," says one London analyst – "where the trendline dating back to Oct. 2008 began.

"If this support breaks down, we'll be headed for the recent low and 200-day moving average near $1050."

update II

You Don't Mess With The LBMA - Assassination Attempt On Silver Market Manipulation Whistleblower?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/27/2010 19:55 -0500

Commodity Futures Trading CommissionJPMorgan ChaseMarket Manipulation

The latest development in Silvergate, in which whistleblower Andrew Maguire has exposed the manipulation details in the London commodity market, is straight out of a John Le Carre or Ian Flemming novel: an assassination attempt. From GATA:

London metals trader Andrew Maguire, who warned an investigator for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in advance about a gold and silver market manipulation to be undertaken by traders for JPMorgan Chase in February and whose whistleblowing was publicized by GATA at Thursday's CFTC hearing on metals futures trading was injured along with his wife the next day when their car was struck by a hit-and-run driver in the London area.

According to GATA's contact with Maguire, board member Adrian Douglas, Maguire and his wife were admitted to a hospital overnight and released today and are expected to recover fully.

Maguire told Douglas by telephone today that his car was struck by a car careening out of a side road. When a pedestrian who witnessed the crash tried to block the other driver's escape, the other driver accelerated at the pedestrian, causing him to jump out of the way to avoid being hit. The other driver's car then struck two other cars in escaping. But the other driver was caught by police after a chase in which police helicopters were summoned.

We'll convey more information about the incident as it becomes available.

We are in process of corroborating this story with independent sources. It will be interesting to see what information the escapee driver discloses and whether this was just a case of a little extra fish and chips and extra, extra beer. In the meantime, the battle against the big banks and the LBMA might have just gotten a little more personal.

Friday, March 26, 2010


When this bubble pops..and it will...its over. Turn out the lights and and forget it. We can chat about the equity market all we wish but this is the monster.

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the almost three-decade bond market rally may be drawing to a close.

Excess borrowing in nations including the U.S., U.K. and Japan will eventually lead to inflation as governments sell record amounts of debt to finance surging deficits, Gross said. Pimco, which announced in December that it would offer stock funds for the first time, is advising that investors buy the debt of counties such as Germany and Canada that have low deficits and higher-yielding corporate securities.

“Bonds have seen their best days,” Gross said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “We are focused more in spread space than in yield space. Durations should be shorter than index and you should be taking a little more risk in terms of spreads.”

update I unfortunate or fortunate ponzi accident??? The numbers keep climbing.

update II... Sailors caught lighting farts or "Why I own gold"

Thursday, March 25, 2010


Just more of the consolidation process. Until we break out of this channel the process could last for several more months. My expectation for gold to hold 980 level remains but time will tell. Without a meaningful pull back in the market the miners will recover quickly. I have not seen the bottom yet in miners but added to my core yesterday on several miners.

(Reuters) - Gold prices firmed in Europe on Thursday, recovering some of the previous session's hefty losses, as the euro steadied near 10-month lows against the dollar, removing some downward pressure from the precious metal.

Spot gold was bid at $1,093.65 an ounce at 1031 GMT, against $1,086.50 late in New York on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.70 to $1,093.50 an ounce.

The precious metal fell to a six-week low of $1,084.85 an ounce on Wednesday as the euro tumbled more than 1 percent versus the dollar, but has met with good buying interest as prices fell, traders said.

"We are still seeing safe haven buying of small coins and bars, and as prices drop we see good physical demand in general, which is absorbing some selling in the market," said Commerzbank senior trader Michael Kempinksi.

"Without the safe-haven idea, gold would already be much lower," he added.

Dealers reported physical demand for gold in India, the world's biggest bullion consumer, rose after prices fell to attractive levels, as traders resumed buying to stock up for the wedding season that begins in April.


"The focus for the euro remains on Greece," said Credit Agricole in a note. "The two-day EU Summit starts today with muted hope that it will result in a clear and euro-friendly resolution of the situation."

"The message that should resonate through the summit is that the risk of negative fiscal sentiment spreading across the euro zone has not gone away and remains a threat to the euro."

Among other commodities, oil prices turned higher, reversing some of their earlier losses.

Silver tracked gold higher, rising to $16.73 an ounce from $16.53. Platinum was at $1,587 an ounce against $1,577, while palladium was at $439 against $442.50.

Both platinum group metals have taken support from expectations for a recovery in car demand this year. Platinum and palladium are chiefly used in autocatalysts.

Investment demand is also expected to support prices after a subsidiary of London's ETF Securities launched U.S.-based platinum and palladium exchange-traded funds earlier this year.

ETFs issue securities backed by physical stocks of a given asset, and have represented a significant source of demand for precious metals in recent years.

"Two-way trade has been seen this morning but both (platinum and palladium) are likely to find continued dip buying interest as investment and industrial demand tightens market fundamentals," said analyst James Moore.

"Available data suggest U.S. ETF holdings in platinum and palladium have increased around 20,000 ounces over the past 48 hours," he said

Update I....confusion in the miners sector with the weak tape indicates further sector rotation that has more to do with window dressing and low level accumulation by the boyz. This can continue for months. Now to the issue all retail traders encounter in a prolonged accumulation.....boredom...That is the goal of consolidation. Eventually they bleed you out of your shares....weak hands to strong... Be AWARE. We should see some more weakness so relax. Watch for that volume increase on a nice reversal day.....maybe like in feb. when overall market was red and miners were green. Play smart and don't be a retail schmuck.

updateII Nice technical look at the gold charts and tend to confirm my suspicions that I mentioned yesterday that gold and miners will want to at least try and retest the Feb lows...but of course these are only guesses.

update III 1915....."We are at a tipping point"....listen closely especially last half....great info.

update IV 2020 Ouch this hurts

Tuesday, March 23, 2010


PM miner stocks remain in their tight chanel with continued pressure to prevent them from breaking out. This is a consolidation move that I think falls within a much larger consolidation phase. We may very likely see lower lows than Feb. but this will not change my longer term outlook and that this is where you want to be not only as a trader but an investor.

Play the gaps if you have the time during the day otherwise hold your core on AUY EGO ANV JAG GFI GG VGZ SLW SSRI...

As Joe has emphasized this year will be the year for palladium and SWC...GL

Here is REUTERS for today...

NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - New York gold futures ended
higher on Tuesday, erasing losses earlier in the session, as
economic optimism driven by a U.S. housing report boosted risk
appetite across the board. * For the latest detailed report, click on [GOL/]. GOLD * COMEX April GCJ0 settles up $4.20 at $1,103.70 an
ounce. * Ranged $1,108 to $1,094. * Gold investors take heart as equities market rose after
U.S. existing home sales data fell less than expected in
February. * Gold initially weighed down by a weak euro on concerns
that a rescue package for debt-laden Greece is unlikely.
[USD/] * Gold in non-dollar terms continues to look attractive -
Dennis Gartman, investor and publisher. * Sentiment cautious as investors look forward to CFTC
public hearing on metals futures on Thursday. * For a list of speakers at CFTC hearing, click
[ID:nN22165847] * COMEX final volume 154,405 lots. * Spot gold XAU= at $1,105.05 an ounce at 3:27 p.m. EDT
(2027 GMT), versus $1,101.60 late in New York in the previous
session. * London gold afternoon fix XAUFIX= at $1,101.50. SILVER * May SIK0 ends up 9.2 cents at $17.027 an ounce on
metals' positive turnaround. * Range from $17.150 to $16.735. * COMEX final volume 30,300 lots

update I My mantra for the past 10 years is to get the leverage with the precious metals juniors and take profits when they are running hot to build a significant position in the precious metals. I recommend buying gold, silver, platinum, and palladium and taking delivery of those metals. Don't rely on ETFs, pooled accounts, or certificate programs to do this for you. In the end, I believe all of these products will be proven to be fraudulent. In other words, you won't be seeing the benefit in those investments as the gold prices rise because the gold doesn't exist the way they say it does. Those who want to protect themselves need to own the physical precious metals themselves and take delivery.

You want own the juniors and you also want to own the physical precious metals. I look at my holdings of physical metals as the ultimate bank account that cannot frittered away by corrupt, power-seeking politicians who seek our destruction. I use the juniors as my way to get big leverage in my investments. The combination of owning both the mining stocks and the physical precious metals is the best way for investors to protect themselves from the debacle of fiat currencies and utterly corrupt politicians and financial corporations.

Monday, March 22, 2010

The Stealth Palladium

I know lot of times I focus on Gold on this blog, but as Joe correctly mentioned from the beginning of this yr palladium has outperformed Gold and SWC which is one of the top palladium mining stocks in the world has done well. If you bought and held SWC at the bottom which was $2, you would have made 700% in your investment, even since January SWC has been a monster. Palladium is now at a very important junction; it has just broken through the long term down trend line and is attempting to break out of a 10 year channel formation. Palladium will now need to trade past the 465-475 ranges for 12 days in a row. If it can achieve this, it will set up the base for a rally that could take it all the way to the 800-890 ranges. If we had to put a time frame on this, we would say that once it trades past the 456-475 ranges for the suggested period of time, it could hit these targets within 12-18 months.
The real bull market, however, will only begin when palladium trades past 1100. Taking an even long term view; a close above 1100 on a monthly basis and the ability to trade past this level for 15 consecutive days in a row, should lead to a test of the 1500-1700 ranges.

The following article explains the status of palladium & it's potential, read the entire article:

Palladium was the underdog of the precious metals sector for a long time, because for the most part it hardly received any attention. In the last few months this all changed and with the introduction of the Palladium ETF (PALL), Palladium has finally emerged from the shadows to the spotlight. Now the average Joe has a way to jump in and out of Palladium without having to actually purchase the metal. In reality owing the physical is far better than buying the ETF, but that is a topic for another day. When the Gold ETF was introduced it helped drive the price of gold bullion because it provided an easy means to jump in and out of Gold and so investors piled into it; from nowhere in a few years GLD has grown into a juggernaut. GLD is now the 6th largest holder of gold bullion in the world. In the same manner demand for Palladium is going to rocket upwards with the introduction of the Palladium ETF (PALL). PALL hit the markets on the 8th of January and it has already had an impact on Palladium’s price. Note that Palladium is the only precious metal that has actually put in a new 52 week highs in the face of a stronger dollar . While demand dropped a bit in 2009 due to the economic crisis, this drop did not seem to prevent this metal from surging to a series of new 52 week highs. In fact, in the past 15 months, palladium is the best performing precious metal. China’s appetite for Palladium is growing at a voracious rate. A report by David Jollie published in May 2009 by Johnson Matthey states that demand in Chian surged from 500,000 oz to 650,000 ounces, in 2008. Demand from the Jewellery sector was rather strong in the first three quarters of the year. In 2008 there was a surplus of 460,000 ounces but net demand still climbed by 15,000 oz, to 6.85 million oz, although the world as a whole was going through one of the worst economic crises in the last 60 years. The palladium market was in surplus by 460,000 oz in 2008 and yet net palladium demand climbed by 15,000 oz, to 6.85-million ounces, despite the economic slowdown. Production, on the other hand continues to fall mainly owing to lower production by the two major players in this sector, Russian and South Africa. Production fell to 7.31 million ounces in 2008, a fall of almost 15%. Investment demand for Palladium climbed to 400,000 ounces in 2008, a rise of over 50%. ETF’s were the major players purchasing 370,000 ounces and demand via coins and small bars jumped to 30,000 ounces. As of Feb 2010, the Palladium ETF PALL has 430,000 ounces of Palladium. This is a huge amount of Palladium; to put this in perspective consider the fact that it took the London ETF over 2 years to accumulate the same amount. As stated below the demand for precious metals (Palladium, Platinum, Gold and Silver) is increasing at a voracious pace

Sunday, March 21, 2010


Jesse has a beautiful piece tonight that gives my insight with his inimitable stlye. Its a must read.

There are those who say that they very sure what is coming, what will happen, what the future will bring. For the most part they are speaking out of fear and false pride. The only certainty is that if they really knew what is going to happen, they would cast themselves down from high places in despair.

Grab something solid and hang on to it, and to the faith that sustains you. Do not be distressed if it feels as though the world has lost its reason, and is made blind, and all is deception and trial, for this is part of the process which has begun. If a war comes, then the world will lose its ability to reason in its temporary madness. We are in for a rough ride, and revelations of what is life and what is nothingness, what is true and what is false.

“When pride comes, then comes disgrace. But with disgrace comes humility, and with humility comes wisdom. The humility of the righteous will guide them, but the sly illusions of the proud will destroy them." Prov 11
People will ask, and I can only say that I do not know if this is the end time, as no one can know this. What does it matter, since surely we are all heading towards the last things and a judgement, at our own pace. But it may certainly feel like it is something more general, more momentous, at some point before our blasphemous generation puts itself back into balance with God and nature again, and the crisis has past.

As the song says, "You ain't seen nothing yet."

This is an excerpt ...I encourage you to read the entire link. gl

update I thnx red;_ylt=A9G_RsUC2qdLFVMB4227YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhcDRuYWZpBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA3RoZWdvbGRzdGFuZA--?x=0

update II in case ya missed this


In a yr like this yr, the best tape readers in the world focus on individual stocks rather than obsess over the direction of the broad market. The whale (Joe) has already talked to us about this subject and Clif droke in his latest article posted today talks about Tape reading.

Tape Reading

There’s no substitute for good, solid market analysis when it comes to stock trading. Fundamental analysis is important, too, but for traders with a short- to intermediate-term outlook, being able to “read the tape” is a skill worth its weight in gold. Watching the flow of trading volume in a stock in relation to its price level can provide a major edge in buying and selling at the right time. The great advantage the tape reader enjoys over other traders who don’t use a scientific approach is that the tape reader can decide which side of the market affords the best opportunity for profit. By process of elimination, the tape reader either gets in at the commencement of a price movement or else waits for the first reaction after the move has started. As the famous market technician Richard Wyckoff observed, “Tape reading gets you in at the beginning, keeps you posted throughout the move, and gets you out when it has culminated. It has made fortunes for the comparatively few who have followed it.” It was for the purpose of distilling tape reading to its essence that I wrote “Tape Reading for the 21st Century” in 1999. Now in its third edition, this book explains the basics of tape reading in layman’s terms. The book uncovers the mechanics of tape reading and provides the most essential rules and guidelines for understanding volumes and how they can be used to predict stock price movements. This book is unique in that it also explains how “tick” charts can best be utilized for micro-term trading along with volume analysis.;_ylt=Ane1w9P7AnhFFDGwzVCxgBmzvtEF;_ylu=X3oDMTNlZDA4Z2JnBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwMzE4L3VzX2JvbnVzZXNfZm9yX3JlZ3VsYXRvcnMEY2NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwMzBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZ292dGJhbmthdWRp

Saturday, March 20, 2010


Shorter term technical indicators say yes. I say you (as usual) must be your own judge. One thing certain is that if you have a 1/3 core of miners in your portfolio, then your chance to add on a nice pullback COULD be at hand. This is a very tricky market with the manipulation that is in place. Never has there been this level of a one-sided trade so to predict with T/A has proven very difficult.

Yesterdays stick save and range bound trading make my crystal ball say that they want to take the market a little higher for some reason here. Maybe its the healthcare passage they want to paint a green tape for. That certainly is hanging out there and provides a nice gift to the bankers interests. So a nice green tape monday or tuesday depending if the bill passes would be right in the PPTs interests.

One thing for sure (if sure can really be used in this market) is that I think that gold itself will be bought heavy if they push it towards 1000. But that is my thought and my thought only so take it for what its worth.

Enjoy your weekend and spend time with your families. gl

update I 1545 .... Or ...are they still going to rip???? Just to give you an idea what the play should be and why holdiing a core is important...

Friday, March 19, 2010


That is how good they are. Doubt what your ears eyes and brain are telling you. Remember the repeated reassurances given in 07 from Bernanke, Paulson et al. In front of God and the world they said no housing bubble....then only a brief correction in housing...then NO serious banking problems that all banks were well capitalized and that they were all closely monitored...then NO chance of a recession... then no chance of a stock market crash .....etc etc. You remember. Of course you do.

But remember last year and this year...when the SAME people including Bush Cheney Geithner tell you NOWthat we were on the verge of collapse at the same time they were standing in front of the public telling us the opposite. Many of us knew things were bad at those points and were stunned at how they lied that everything was "fine" and that any problems were "being handled".

Well that mountain of horseshit has hit the ground and now the greenshoots are sprouting out of it. Can nature renew? Out of horsedung? ....Sure. Do I believe it will be that easy ......absolutely not. Can this facade be extended for awhile longer. Yes. As noted for the past year I have felt they would extend the Ponzi to the 61.8 fibonacci retracement at S&P 1240. It is the maximum allowable fib for market collapses. They exceed that and Nature will intervene. Be happy. Hell they have given you the illusion that alpo isn't going to be your sustaining dinner staple. Not to mention that you still have a money market account to trade with and a market that is open to the public. See...there are benefits of the ponzi so put a smile on your face.

I have a hard time holding my nose and going long in this market which is why I have turned into a "gold bug". So folks or accumulate miners...but most of all buy physical gold and hold through thick and thin. Enjoy these days now....they are an illusion but then so is most of this ponzi existence we live in. So make an effort to help someone real it will give you a sense of purpose. Real purpose. gl


Thursday, March 18, 2010


We were able to imbed one of our reporters to record a recent "behind the door" meeting of the Senate banking committee. You know of course how important this meeting is to establish more regulatory framework to the multiple layers of regulatory framework that were ignored during the previous decade of creative banking. Of course it will be differnt this time. Remember readers Senator Dodd is a genuine American Hero and wishes to leave all of the plebes one last turd before he leaves the service of his country. Reminder to us .....he is a public servant. Not to mention his wife is not. I digress.

Fortunately our leopard has changed his spots and we were lucky enough to here some of the conversation planning our future at the last meeting.

"Mr Boehner can we hear your objections to this bill?"....
"Yes Mr. Chairman...I find any intrusion into the free market of banking to be an outrage....besides there is no component in this bill that addresses tanning beds in the Congressional Spa...and I really do find that to be an outrage. You promised me that Dodd and maybe I would have played ball better...but look at me ...I look terrible...let's rap this dog and pony show up I need a marlboro fast."
" I don't give a damn about your fkn tanning bed this is much more important than that. This is about my fkn legacy you weasel. Now either you get on board or I WILL go it alone. And if you don't believe I will then ask my wife...whoops...strike that please. Anyway Boehner you know what I mean.
" Of course Mr. Chairman and I apologize" ..We are The peoples's representatives and there is a decorum that must be adhered to...perhaps if you have a spray tan available in the spa I could be moved to support this bill. I think that is reasonable."
" Jeeze Boehner ....don't you get it. You are nickel and dimeing this bill when there is real money out there to be made. There are trillions at stake here you moron. Hell when I am out of here in a few months and you have retaken the chairmanship...if you have played ball on this you know full well they are going to take care of you more than a few grand on a tanning bed you fkn idiot.
" OK OK ..I get it. There is no reason to curse. One more thing I would like you to consider though on this bill could we attach a rider that provides for a bathroom attendant with hot moist towels and marlboros with tips already included?
" Oh my gd....we already have that in the spa mens room.....
" NO NO not the spa but in our our private office bathrooms"
" OK Boehner.....THAT I can totally agree with. I will also add Camels. You need to switch to them....they are heart healthy."

update I It appears gold has once more been influenced by large institutional trading, which has contributed to the recent week's volatility," says a note from Swiss refiner MKS's finance division

It is not best that we should all think alike; it is a difference of opinion that makes horse races.
Mark Twain

Alex Chilton dead ....singer and composer of The Letter in 1967......16 years

Wednesday, March 17, 2010


The forces of nature versus the forces of evil. And the band plays on. Watching this AMs action reminds me of slow motion video of turtles making love. No volume No volatility. Absolute paralysis. Of course that does not negate the market can be easily brought higher but at what price? Can naures law continue to be violated without retribution? The short answer is YES. The more complete answer is NO.

Any call for a crash this year I meet with skepticism. Will we have some nervous fear inducing corrections?.....yes...But as Joe and I have discussed many times previously, the Fed and Gov are inextricably linked to the current policy and market manipulation. For the GS boyz to collapse this market this year or even next year is unlikely to be in the cards. It makes no sense to expend this kind of capital only to collapse it. Will they eventually??? Yes. The effects of this liquidity injection and capital system interference will be too much to bear on a weakened economic system. By calling this "weakened" I may be makeing the understatement of all time. But make no mistake they can kick this can down the road a lot longer.

The more interesting game being played is between us and the rest of the world. Our global military industrial empire is going to collapse under the weight of its expense. The protection we provide our global corporations to plunder the rest of the world resources is coming to an end. The outcome is yet to unfold but you can bet China will wind up as one of the victors. They are positioning themselves to emerge from this economic battle with unprecedented power. Their educational system is educating scientists and engineers at a rate ten times higher than ours.

Our system is educating bankers a rate ten times theirs. (humor)....But you see the difference. Wash rinse repeat. War is coming doubt about it. But in what form?? Nukes? Tanks/ground troops? Air/missile strikes?? maybe maybe maybe. But the war that we are in right now behind the scenes is the one you want to watch. Watch the currency/tariff wars. Its the war you can count on. gl

Update I 1710... Look at the dollar chart before you get too bullish here....I want to see some good correction in the miners short term...besides my core has slimmed too much.$USD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94987395291&a=74691808

Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first.
Mark Twain

Tuesday, March 16, 2010


Welcome to the game. Market is just dead this morning. But guess what isn't? Thats right........Fake out or break out. Guess we will just have to wait and see.

An interesting argument was made in why your longer term hold in gold and miners should be your best bet was made regarding golds performance if interest rates begin to rise. It essentially addresses that the interest rate rise will belie a more serious underlying problem of a world awash in print money that is reflective of an even larger reason to be in gold.

George Soros got it right recently when he said that gold was the ‘ultimate bubble’, that is to say the last asset class in the chain to become a bubble before the whole cycle starts again. For in past financial crises the clear pattern has been bank failures then a bond market crash and a rush into precious metals.

Will this be something that you and I see in the near future? I hope not.... I want to prepare better with more physical gold. Our concern here in the near term are the miners. So this scenario is hopefully at least two years away...I hope. If we are lucky it won't hit until after 2014.

Government intervention on a historic scale has mitigated the bank failures but led to an even greater issuance of government paper, and merely delayed the inevitable bond market crash that will come as – wait for it – interest rates go up.

Gold then becomes the final safe haven asset and the limited supply of gold means that its value will surge to unheard of levels. Dr Marc Faber recently suggested that $1,000 gold might be seen as similar to the Dow crossing 1,000 in 1982.

UpdateI 1500.....Fed keeping rates unchanged...what I do find interesting is the miners appear along with gold to be breaking out on technical levels. Also within the Fed language was unit labor costs....note the language and the costs to miners...

Labor Costs

Officials may also be concerned about the falling cost of labor, said Marvin Goodfriend, a former research director at the Richmond Fed. Labor costs dropped at a 5.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter, according to a report earlier this month.

“Today we cannot say we’re past the period of risk of deflation in unit labor costs,” said Goodfriend, now a professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business in Pittsburgh.

UpdateII In a speech I recently gave at The Empire Club of Toronto , I referred to gold as the "anti-currency." Gold is not and never has been a currency. Gold is something entirely different and far more valuable. It is money.

"If you're holding paper currency, you have to have some kind of trust that the country that issued it is not just going to print its way out of its problems. That's a real concern right now. Gold, on the other hand, has real intrinsic value, unlike a paper currency which can be debased by its government."

– Sacha Tihanyi, currency strategist, Scotia Capital

Update III Thanks Carol for Nenner link....

Monday, March 15, 2010


That China...those sneaky baastids. So what do you do to conceal your accumulation of an asset that is in limited supply and not squeeze the price to the moon. Unless you are GS there are limited means to conceal your intentions. But never underestimate the Chinese.

China purchased 454.1 tons of gold on its domestic market last year. It didn’t have to go shopping overseas. China can buy its own home-grown gold because for the last three years in a row, it’s been the world’s largest producer. China produced over 300 tonnes of gold for the first time ever in 2009, according to the China Gold Association.

What I also find interesting in the linked article is this little piece of logic that you had better read. You remember David Einhorn that singlehandedly stood in front of the Lehman/Fed ponzi machine and called them lying baastids back in 2008 and in my mind forced the hand of Treasury to take um out and give the creditors a haircut....yup...that's the guy. Well most of you are aware probably that his fund became a heavy investor in physical gold in the last two years. But listen to his logic....

But the case for gold is pretty simple. To paraphrase fund manager David Einhorn, if you believe monetary and fiscal policy across the world are sensible, sell gold and buy Treasuries. If you believe monetary and fiscal policy around the world are bad, sell Treasuries and buy gold. You don’t have to a cult follower or a true believer to profit from that kind of trade.

Only a guess....but I think that the program to keep gold down is failing. Maybe they have enough ammo left to keep it in this consolidation pattern for awhile but I am becoming suspicious there are too many forces outside of their control now. Those big short positions are tempting targets for these forces as they (the forces) accumulate now. When will it end? Stay tuned. I don't know and neither does "the whale" (Joe's new ID).... Most investors have there core of miners and are holding cash in hopes of one last buy signal. Dunno gang. The real smart money is buying physical gold.....the ultimate. gl gang

Sunday, March 14, 2010


As we debate the war to re inflate the world's war with deflation by printing endless miles of dollars and putting them into the world's central banks to hold the ponzi up in rarefied atmosphere I continue to look for the strains on nature's law. As noted in previous post the ramp to the 61.8 fib will be met with increasing strains on commodity prices and costs of many essentials. After all these "third world countries" just aren't going to roll over and give these precious items away for freshly minted fiat currencies. Its gonna cost ya bud. Ran across some nice thoughts on China's building dilemna that you might like to read.

This is a global macroeconomic issue, but for China it is a domestic issue: There is a labor shortage in China, and those workers want to be paid. “Migrant workers are a lot more fussy than before,” He Suwei, chairman of Hangzhou Weibang Airflow Spinning Co in Zhejiang province, told China Daily. “They don’t just talk money; they talk about working environments, holidays and other fringe benefits we have not even heard of before. Workers have more say than us now because they have a wider choice.” Workers at the factory are now being paid about $270 per month, up 40% from the beginning of the global recession. At a nearby textile mill, the owner came back from the Lunar New Year holidays to find that many of his skilled workers didn’t return to work. He reluctantly had to raise wages. “I had no choice but to raise the salaries of my less experienced workers from 750 yuan a month to 960 yuan,” said the owner, Cao Yakun. “Also, to make sure the workers who did return stayed, I boosted my skilled workers’ pay by 10 to 15 percent.

Of course we have a bit of a "chinese standoff"..........
March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao rebuffed calls for the yuan to appreciate, risking a further downturn in relations with the U.S. where lawmakers and economists say his stance is hampering a global recovery.

Saturday, March 13, 2010


As gold and the PM miners go through a consolidation pattern for the past 4months we discuss ad nauseum support and resistance levels. Probably overtrading positions rather than maintaining a solid core and holding cash for evidence of a nice tradable bottom. Alas most of us trying to "maximize" positions and are sick degenrate gamblers.

I want to post a link today that underscores just what a mess the PTB have with gold right now. Its a problem for them and it is not going away. This may also play into a near term move up in gold but time will tell....

From a chart perspective, gold has been building a solid base. It has risen steadily in euro and sterling terms since its late December correction, while dollar-priced gold has been on an upward trend since a dip to 2010 lows in February.

"Clearly gold has been based as something of an insurance policy," said Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at Switzerland's Diapason Commodities Management.

And buyers of physical gold, who typically lend strong support to the market, are more comfortable with prices above $1,000 an ounce, dealers say, putting a solid floor in prices.

Now gold has proved it can hold its own in a rising dollar environment, any change in that trend may prove explosive.

"If dollar gold prices manage to hold up under the prior circumstances, how are they going to perform when the U.S. dollar is back under pressure again?" said Klapwijk of GFMS.

Friday, March 12, 2010


Mad mad mad. Sorry ..I couldn't resist the self indulgence. Just another day in the ramp to the 61.8 fib and the rendezvoux with glory or is it a rendezvous with hell. You know.....nature's law is waiting somewhere down this ill conceived march to hell and nature's law will not be denied. I hope when the they had the meetings that finally drafted this solution in early 2009 they informed the President what the downside risk of this dash to cash was going to You know they didn't.

Thats not our concern. Neither is structural unemployment or malinvestment. Our interests is what to make of the next ponzi move and how to profit. My 85 target on oil may be achieved. Keep you eyes peeled for it. This baby WILL turn.

Retail sales were strong today that may provide the good news to correct the market later today. We will see. Very tricky but don't miss the forest for the trees. The market is overbought here and needs some air taken out.

You know the drill ....have your core in the miners and when this baby pulls back add for the ride to glory......the pump is

Thursday, March 11, 2010


Why is this important to understand? It just sounds like so many gobbledeegook economic mumbojumbo. OK then let's take a stab at it.

What does Malinvestment and Unemployment mean to each other. Malinvestment for example occurs when a decision by the powers is made to ramp up an economy using an unsustainable model that is driven by leverage through the creation of money by a ponzi scheme of derivatives that basically weapons of financiall mass destruction as defined by Warren.

I am trying to keep this simple so bear with me....This creates a structural unemployment bomb. In other words....A structural change in the labor market occurs when hiring patterns change not as a function of economic fluctuations, but because of shifts in the economy's production that reallocate workers among industries ... in this case it was into construction and related real an effort to pump up the last bubble bursting in 2000.

We are in a structural collapse and its secular not cyclical.....This is essentially an unresolvable (at least in the short term) employment issue without profound political and exonomic changes occuring. Add in a pinch of demographics and 60 Trillion in Debt and Unfunded Mandates....well you see the problem. I cannot even touch Ocun's law or frictional, or technological unemployment definitions..I don't believe they apply to us now but you can google them to your hearts desire.

Back to the subject and then I quit. Malinvestment and structural unemployment go hand in hand. A newsletter Joe sends me addressed malinvestment and I can now clearly see how this issue directly creates the moral hazard of sturctural unemployment. Without a clear political structural change these issues will not be adressed in the near term. My guess is the law of nature will eventually define your solution and as Joe likes to aren't gonna like their solution. gl and enjoy.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010


Guest on Fast Money is shedding his gold bullion so be aware. I fully expect some short term selling here. But have maintained and traded around my core. I may take a beating but will happily hold this over any other long in this nasty pig of ponzi or POP. The POP needs some air out of it and this time miners may correct to the 200dma....or even a poke under. Gold support is 1070 short term. But lets get back to a macro discussion and events that are still unfolding. The question out there is obvious and that is how to deal with the sovereign debt problem with the country like the PIIGS that can't print their own money. Here is a nice read....

The problem remains in that uncompetitive countries such as Greece are unable to either devalue or print money to inflate their way out of their respective debt crisis as a consequence of the huge public spending deficits of as much as 12% of GDP. That is the REAL reason for crisis deepening amongst the PIIGS, and NOT because of financial speculators that are being perceived as being responsible for driving up Greek bond yields and credit default spreads (insurance), when all that is happening is that the market is pricing the bonds on the basis of the risks posed as a consequence of the government debt to GDP ratio and the ongoing public sector deficit which ensures a continuous stream of new debt issuance.

The rise in the yield demanded to finance Greek debt is a direct consequence of Greece lying to European Union, markets and their electorate as to the true extent of the outstanding debt and the annual budget deficit for many years. Which amounts to fraud, but instead of a criminal investigation into the epic fraud, the Greek and other Socialistic politicians are attempting to ms-direct public anger to the markets / speculators for selling debt that is high risk.

Greece presents a greater risk of default precisely because of the fact that the preceding Greek Government were a bunch of liars that hid the real extent of Greek debt for many years, where instead of limiting deficits to 3%, Greece had been running deficits of as much as 10% per annum, and therefore instead of having a debt to GDP ratio below the 60% limit, Greek debt stands at approx 135% GDP. It is this that is resulting in the markets demanding a higher yield for the higher risk of a country that cannot control government spending, which ultimately sows the seeds of a Greek debt default to some degree.

Greece's current situation of not being able to print money or devalue whilst being forced by the market to pay high interest rates is DEFLATIONARY, and it is not something that the Greek government can sustain i.e. the Greek government would collapse in a deflationary environment, which ultimately implies that something has to give, and that is for Greece to enact an inflationary policy which can only occur if a. Greece devalues its currency (which it can't), b. Greece defaults on its debts (which it might) and c. Greece goes on an money printing spree (which it can't),

As the in depth analysis contained in the Inflation Mega-Trend ebook indicates, ultimately governments will not allow for deflation and the easiest way to ensure this is by printing money, therefore the Eurozone will print money that will be handed to Greece, a policy which will ultimately be applied to the other PIIGS and even the likes of France (debt at 80% of GDP), which ensures higher future inflation, in advance of which the Euro is already depreciating against other major currencies


Many retail traders have decried the obvious market manipulation that has transpired to restore air into the bubble. The ultimate moral hazard for those that play in "the game" is that a no bid market is achieved as a consequence of this interference. In other words the big boys mutual funds and hedges...become frozen. They are in the position now to commit more money to a frothy moarket that has risen 70% from its low just a year ago.....or more prudently take some profit. Unless you own a fund that is locked into being long at full investment....then WHY WOULD YOU STAY LONG HERE.So logically it makes sense for this market to correct....but it doesn't. It continues its steady ascent to glory unabated by the typical forces in a "free market".

Are we in a "no bid" market? The short answer is NO. The longer answer is more complex. This entire exercise beginning back as far as late 2008 was constructed as an effort to reinvigorate CONfidence in our market system and aid in the effort to establish an increase in the velocity of money. Printing money alone was not going to work. The plan was developed over a period of several months.....including the carefully crafted market "bottom" in March of last year. We as retail schmucks are supposed to see this as an affirmation of a recovering global economy. Even though the "real news" is painting a very mixed picture. Of course the daily news is contrived to assist this effort and will continue to do so until the absolute collapse of this effort occurs.

My post last night was not to say we are going to a Dow of 13000. It is only another point of view on how this COULD play out. I do not know the answer and neither do any of you.....including Joe. I am sure he will agree. But one thing many of us believe and that is ultimately deflation overall, will have to clean out the system. Prior to this many events can transpire, and that is why we have our arguments on this blog. Our goal here is to debate this and provide ideas for you to make your investment decisions...

Right now I am looking at DTO. If they push it to 85 I will add. Real tuff

Tuesday, March 9, 2010


Or WHY YOU SHOULD OWN PRECIOUS METALS. This scenario is out of the predictions of bears and bulls alike which is why I am posting this. It scares the hell out me and it better you. An explosive final stage of a cyclical Bull move here?? Wouldn't that just about make everyone wrong and destroy ALL bears. Certainly a melt up and panic in actual buyers could occur and cannot be discounted. Will it? I cannot tell you but do not discount this following excerpt and link...

The cyclical bull we are in right now is about to morph into a completely different animal than just about any other bull market in history. And most certainly this bull will not fit in the same category as the `02-`07 bull. I think we are about to bypass the second phase of a normal bull market and jump straight to phase three, the ending stage.

This is a bull spawned by the printing of literally trillions and trillions of dollars by central banks around the world. You can see by examination of the chart above that this bull has been much more aggressive than the last one, rallying over 70% in its first 10 months.

The recent move to new highs by the Russell, Mid Caps, and Nasdaq suggests that the third leg of the bull is now underway. As most intermediate term rallies last 20-25 weeks trough to trough and this rally is on week 4, we probably have at least 10 to 15 weeks left before we can expect a top.


Forget about it. Just concentrate on the game. We are overbought here and need some air out of the balloon. But I am not expecting more than a 50dma touch. So stay tuned. Joe is playing DTO and it does look good this AM. Added a small ammount at close so will try to trade it today with probably a gap trade on one of the miners depending on which gap shows the most promise. Don't forget to watch SWC. Nimble today. Market is due for some bleeding.

Nice video today on the FED.

I will update today as market dictates.

Monday, March 8, 2010


The warm spring winds are beginning to blow with the rains soon to follow repeating the yearly life cycle of nature bringing renewed growth and life to our hemisphere. And so life goes. The same can be said of the market and our economy. Or can it? Imagine if our earth had been hit by meteorite ......say 7 miles wide and knocked off its axis by a couple of meters with a tremendous ammount of particulate matter thrust into the atmosphere occluding sun for not just days but months....Maybe thats not a perfect analogy but when a structural issue is present that is not being adressed by the PTB then I think this analogy just might apply to our current state of affairs. Yes I still maintain that the 61.8 fib "may" be reached by the PTB but at what cost will this entail.

Our structural job loss situation based on a 70% consumer based economy is not being adressed with the current stimulus enacted. So rest assured if job losses accelerate later this year ......MOREstimulus is coming and deficits will worsen. This recipe for disaster is set in stone IMO. Where will more jobs come if the current strategy of restoring CONfidence in our economy by propping up Wall Street and the Stock Market fail to galvanize consumer spending? And How can it??? The consumer is destroyed. Credit is maxed out. The ponzi has already accomplished that. Now its just a matter of picking the bones from those of us that managed to survive the initial meteor strike. In other words they have to suck the marrow from the strongest members of the system that did not put themselves into debt to sustain their own vital signs. That is a parasitic relationship in nature....not a symbiotic one. I hope that I am wrong and heaven knows I have been before but to this stage of events I have not been but will hope that they can pull this off......just don't see it gang.

For those that are still investors.....I like gold here a for 1150 to break and if it does 1300 is coming. More importantly buy physical gold. Next be aware of the miner group. GG ABX AUY ANV EGO SLW SSRI JAG GFI....its gonna be a monster move over the next 4 months if my suspicions play out. Right now have a position and try and trade around it. gl gang

Saturday, March 6, 2010


Not without this last desperate attempt at the will fail but not without the last blow.....good read

When the tech bubble burst in 2000, Greenspan tried to “fix” the problem by cutting rates and printing money. Fix the problem he did … well sort of! What Greenspan did was create two new bubbles in the credit and real estate markets to replace the tech bubble that had burst. Millions of jobs were created in these two industries. Much needed jobs to replace the ones lost as the tech boom came to an end.

I think we will all admit it was one heck of a party, but like all good parties there’s a price to pay. The Hangover!

The truth is the economic boom of the mid 2000’s was built on a lie. Instead of a foundation of productivity the last bull market was founded on an ocean of liquidity. That ocean of liquidity fostered risky investments and massive speculation. It was only a matter of time before the house of cards came crashing down. And crash it did. The world suffered through the second worst bear market in history almost taking down the global financial system in the process.

Apparently the powers that be have learned nothing from this near death experience because they are back at it again, printing, printing, printing in another vain effort to create prosperity with the printing press. I dare say the average 6th grader can understand that the act of putting ink on paper does not create wealth. It’s too bad our elected officials can’t understand this.

So here we are, we’ve survived the credit crisis and all appears to be well in the world. I’m here to say that all is not well. We now have a cancer growing under the surface of the economy many times bigger than the one Greenspan created. This cancer isn’t going to show up in real estate or credit markets, that bubble has already burst, never to be inflated again. No, this time I expect the cancer is going to flare up as inflation in the commodity markets.

Witness the strange resilience of oil at $80 despite a very strong dollar the past 3 months. Gold has been holding over $1100. Sugar is at multi-year highs. Copper is less than 15% from all-time highs.

"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.” - Mark Twain


Abbie is at it again
happy birthday new bull market! yes, a year ago the major indices bounced off new lows, and with trillions of dollars of taxpayers money, the stock market started heading north again with nary a look back. its just so encouraging to see signs of "nascent" economic recovery all over (we don't say 'green shoots' anymore, that's last years BS bingo buzzword)


yes, the only thing headed up faster than the market are the exploding budget deficits of every school district, city, county, state, and country on the planet. what could be more bullish than endless trillions in bonds sales?

the official unemployment rates are finally holding steady (providing a semi-reasonable argument that the unemployed must be resorting to cannibalism to keep the rate in check - it is certainly as plausible as the rate itself)

its also great to see retail spending continues to be 'better than expected'. (Mish had a fantastic article describing why - same store sales don't count the 1000s of stores that have closed, and shoppers flock the to remaining stores that are open (think circuit crappy vs best buy) want real 'retail sales' numbers? look at the state sales tax revenues, which continue to fall off a cliff.)


yes, the investment bankers certainly deserved their $40B in bonuses last year. it must have been incredibly difficult for the vampires to go to work every day and re-increase risk to obscene levels, this time with with taxpayer cash. (next time, vampires, when the chips are down, just jump you @#$#ers, like the sign said. I have the feeling next time you'll be pushed.)

Friday, March 5, 2010


Supress your anger...forget about the Ponzi of all it and move on. Jobs numbers are improving. Things are moving ahead. It has to be true because it is on CNBC. Even the spinners on CNBC were muted in their celebration of the jobs numbers. You could almost sense that they are in on the "fix", but that is my tin foil hat talking again.

They quickly went to the Chris Dodd segment and began painting the reform of the bank regulations legislation. I fell warm and fuzzy now and am going back into the water to play "the game". Make no mistake if you are going to invest then realize you are in a casino. A rigged casino. I do not have a crystal ball and neither does Joe. As some of the brilliant comments on this blog have referred to in the past you are playing a game designed to take your money. The point ......don't cry when these guys destroy you. I am not sanguine about my prowess in this meltdown. In fact, I believe that even the accounts I have left to trade will be deemed worthless eventually one way or antoher. But its the only game and I am in it.

Market is moving up today on better than expected jobs news. Perfect cover for a sell off today but doesn't matter. Gold in a breakout so be accumulating. My favorites here are ANV EGO GFI JAG AUY SSRI SLW. Go getum GL

Do not forget to watch oil...its headed for try to pay attn.

A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining and wants it back the minute it begins to rain....Mark Twain

Just keepin it real so keep an eye on these ...

Thursday, March 4, 2010


If precious metals move higher over their moving averages here and confirm this up move with Gold crossing 1150 then all hell CAN break loose. This set up is being compounded by a issue that has been pushed behind the curtain by the central banks and the fiat cabal that tries to control precious metal's prices. What is this nasty secret lurking in the dark that is about to arise its ugly head???? In my humble opinion the long term Heavy short positon in the Comex is under tremendous pressure in the next few months as gold moves off its recent low of 1045.

The strains on the massive short position of JPM could be disastrous. So stay tuned. There is another additional fly in the ointment now for the gold haters that has developed and I am fascinated how this could play out. That is the Sprott physical gold PHYS that is now listed. This new gold holding actually allows you to take physical possession of the position if its 400oz. Supposedly they will have verificatiion of their actual holdings. Stay tuned. They had their first major delivery this week reported. Could this be accounting for some of the price rise in the yellow metal? If this new physical/paper gold development plays out it could be huge. Look for the central banks to try and crush it....If they cannot then realize that a lot of retirement accounts will be able to invest in this whereas before they HAD to invest in paper only. The "paper only" trade is how the lid is kept on the gold price by the cabal. So for risk of redundancy....this is big.

Update. as a request I want to mention a segment of a speech recently given regarding the outrage that the business community and true capitalist have over our current state of affairs. Every friday we recieve the news of the failed banks. It should actually be called "banks too small to save friday". We have essentially made the "too big to fail" a moral hazard that is a violation of the "law of nature". In other words we have taken the best of our banking system that plays by the rules and have thrown them to the wolves. The system that is responsible for the nuts and bolts of society. Instead we have made whole at their expense the very part of our capitalist system that betrayed the country. It is called Reverse Darwiniism. The worst a cancer to continue to grow within our body.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010


Great article on the current state of affairs....and how no answer is going to be a good answer...

The ability to wage war on credit gave the West an insurmountable advantage over the East. The West’s credit, however, has now turned to debt and the West has lost its advantage. But the return to parity will not be easy.

The three hundred year economic expansion fueled by debt-based capital markets is coming to an end and with it, the hegemony of the West over the East. During that period, debt-based paper money propelled first England then the US to world dominion because of the ability to wage war on credit and to print money ad infinitum.

That era is now ending because the critical balance between credit-driven expansion and debt-driven contraction has now shifted significantly in favor of the latter; and in 2010, both East and West now find themselves on the edge of a growing deflationary sinkhole created by the sequential collapse of two large US bubbles, the and US real estate bubbles.

The US caused the 1930s deflationary depression and is again cause of the current contraction; and although similarities exist between the two, the differences between them insure a far more consequential outcome today than in the 1930s.

Global demand is again falling as credit contracts, a sign that debt-driven deflation is back but, today, there is an additional danger as well. Since 1971, because of the US default on its gold obligations, money no longer possesses intrinsic value and the consequences will soon become apparent. Deflationary depressions and a collapse in the value of fiat money have happened before but never simultaneously. Soon, they will.

We are in what Stephen Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, calls the end-game, the resolution of past monetary excesses and imbalances, excesses and imbalances that reached never-before-seen heights in the last decade. The long awaited day of reckoning has arrived.

Nice link from comments...cannot disagree

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Why Most of You Can Not Beat Wall ST

You got a job all day. They're 24/7 gamblers. They don't have a clue what's going to happen in a decade. Worse, they don't give a damn. It's irrelevant in their 24/7 short-term trading world. Irrelevant to guys making anywhere from 10 times the income of the average American to making more in a single year than you'll make in a lifetime. Irrelevant in a culture that needs no moral compass and lives by one rule: "Greed is very good!"

Eight Reasons Wall Street Will Lose Another 20% in the Next Decade

The world of 2010-2020 is far more dangerous for investors than it was in the "Lost Decade," as many economists now call the years from 2000 to 2009. Listen closely: Here are eight reasons Wall Street will lose another 20%, why the odds are heavily against you "Winning the Loser's Game" by 2020:

1. Foreign policy and wars. The investment world's far more volatile and dangerous today than in 2000 when Bush was elected. America started a preemptive war-of-civilizations by attacking Iraq under false pretenses, the single biggest foreign policy blunder in American history, a war that's had the unintended consequences of playing into the hands of our enemies, made them stronger, and unnecessarily cost us trillions, weakening America as a military and economic power, with no end in sight.

2. Monetary policy and the Fed. Your world of investing is also in a far worse condition as a direct result of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's too-long legacy of free-market Reaganomics ideology funneling endless cheap money to Wall Street banks. Worse, three regional Fed presidents recently endorsed an indefinite continuation of current Chairman Ben Bernanke's cheap money policies, thus accelerating the next bubble. But worst of all, when he had a chance to prove he was a real change-agent, President Obama made the biggest domestic policy blunder in history by reappointing Bernanke, a Greenspan clone, a Reaganomics ideologue and a Trojan Horse protecting Wall Street with trillions in cheap money loans, guarantees and toxic asset takeovers, all hidden from taxpayers.

3. Dysfunctional politics and the Party of No-No. America's unpredictable and hostile political world will also have enormous long-term economic consequences. In this age of online citizen journalism the public is becoming more and more aware of the breakdown of Washington politics and the two-party system, the widening cultural gap between the rich and the rest of America, the exploding conflict between Corporate America and Main Street America and the "GOP Party of No-No's" scorched-earth defense of all-things-business while fighting everything favoring the masses, including health care and financial reforms. Warning: This trend will get far more destructive. The elections of 2010 and 2012 are guaranteed to make your investment world a dangerous no-man's land.

4. Statistics guarantee you will lose at the Wall Street casino. Remember: Between 2000 and 2009 Wall Street's casino was in fact a "Loser's Game" for Main Street investors. The Dow did in fact drop from 11,722 in 2000 and from a peak of 14,164 in 2007 to the 10,400 range today. The fact is, Wall Street's lost an inflation-adjusted 20% of your retirement nest egg in the recent "Lost Decade." And the odds are high they'll lose more of your hard-earned money in the next decade. The game's fixed.

5. Wall Street has absolutely no moral conscience. Wall Street's greed knows no bounds, thanks to the moral hazard endorsed by the Fed and Treasury bailouts, Wall Street's obsession with mega-bonuses for insiders and their addiction to the new high-risk, high-leveraged, high-frequency derivatives gambling game that easily generates $100 million trading-profit days. Their cultural DNA must ignore lending to the little guy, to homeowners, to small businesses, to regional banks, to all the businesses that money-center banks used to help before investment bankers took over. Wall Street's DNA makes them incapable of feeling the pain the rest of America feels in an economic downturn with underemployment near 20%. Wall Streeters have zero moral conscience. Unfortunately, it's guaranteed to get far worse.

6. The 'Third Meltdown' is dead ahead. America is again being propelled to the edge of an economic cliff, already burdened with an estimated $23.7 trillion debt from the misguided political decisions of the past decade. Endless deficits lie ahead. Yet politicians, CEOs, bankers and Main Street folks have all failed to learn any lessons. As Yale's Robert Shiller put it: "Until we understand and address the psychology that fuels" these bubbles, they will "keep forming. We recently lived through two epidemics of excessive financial optimism, we are close to a third episode." To another meltdown, to another Great Depression.

7. Lobbyists fueling America's new 'Capitalist Anarchy.' America's becoming a "socialist" nation? No, the truth is America's becoming the world's first "Capitalist Anarchy," thanks to the explosion of lobbyists running government. This trend shows no sign of abating. Imagine: 42,000 Washington lobbyists today, versus a handful in 1975. Other experts estimate 261,000 of these selfish special-interest "influence peddlers" throughout our nation. And it's so bad the Center for Public Integrity just reported that "more than 1,750 companies and organizations hired about 4,525 lobbyists, eight for each member of Congress, to influence health-reform bills in 2009." Worse: this emerging "Capitalist Anarchy" is draining the Treasury with endless deficits piling up more killer debt that will negatively impact future market returns.

8. Taxpayers cannot afford Wall Street's next bailout. I'll bet you're in total denial about this one. And you can bet Congress will avoid action till it's too late. But when the bomb detonates all hell will break lose. Moral-hazard critics warn that Wall Street's arrogant "too-political-to-fail" bankers actually believe taxpayers will bail them out again when they trigger the new meltdown. Wrong. Even if our politicians are dumb enough, the money won't be there. That scenario will inevitably trigger a new Great Depression. This is our destiny.

In fact, it's highly doubtful that you, your portfolio, your family or your America will make it past 2012, let alone into that comfortable retirement you may be planning for 2020. The Wall Street casino's version of "Liar's Poker" is a "Loser's Game," and the odds are high are they'll lose a lot of your money again in the coming decade.

So again I ask you: Do you really want to bet on the market winning for the next decade? Do you really believe that stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, commodities and bonds will make a profit in the next decade after Wall Street's miserable performance the past decade? Trust them, you lose.


Rode the bears....The market is trying to confirm many of the indices move over the 50dma....but it still has many negative divergences coninciding with this beware. Very dangerous here but with a good mining core you can probably hold tight until the dust settles this week.

Gold and miners showing new higher low formed and a move over critical moving averages too. Is the correction over for gold??? Could be.

Oil trying to cross over 80 today and confirm this week. Unbelievable. Our country is mired in a deep recession with high unemployment and falling demand.....and oil is squeezing the life blood out of the struggling sheeple. Its an indirect tax that is reinflating the sovereign oil producers AND allowing them to buy our treasuries too. This is the way the game is played. We guarantee them an oil range and they buy our treasury ponzi in return......same deals are tenuously being played out with other buyers of our treasuries. Their costs to us is never fully realized in the mainstream media so don't bother to google it.

Next up on our morning agenda is what to buy today (or sell). Watch for us to hold over 1116 today. Should indicate strength. Try to watch your miner's gaps today and try and trade their ranges. Love GFI ANV EGO. Also AUY still looks undervalued. SLW and SSRI are to the moon if silver closes over 17. GL Gang