Saturday, March 20, 2010


Shorter term technical indicators say yes. I say you (as usual) must be your own judge. One thing certain is that if you have a 1/3 core of miners in your portfolio, then your chance to add on a nice pullback COULD be at hand. This is a very tricky market with the manipulation that is in place. Never has there been this level of a one-sided trade so to predict with T/A has proven very difficult.

Yesterdays stick save and range bound trading make my crystal ball say that they want to take the market a little higher for some reason here. Maybe its the healthcare passage they want to paint a green tape for. That certainly is hanging out there and provides a nice gift to the bankers interests. So a nice green tape monday or tuesday depending if the bill passes would be right in the PPTs interests.

One thing for sure (if sure can really be used in this market) is that I think that gold itself will be bought heavy if they push it towards 1000. But that is my thought and my thought only so take it for what its worth.

Enjoy your weekend and spend time with your families. gl

update I 1545 .... Or ...are they still going to rip???? Just to give you an idea what the play should be and why holdiing a core is important...

1 comment:

  1. My thought end of day yesterday on the TNA buy was a few things, including the range being held and support recovery across leading indices at the end leading me to think headfake on the earlier melt. Another thing was the lack of attempt to use any excuse to drop the market lower toward max pain, thereby MMs paying out all those calls. Would they allow that to happen and then subsequently after OPEX allow a drop? The results of the healthcare vote are probably known ahead of time and already baked in, I believe something like that is fixed. Even topping patterns recently tend to have a consolidation range themselves, and the pattern on TNA has been to gap up for a large portion of that smaller range, meaning if you are not in ahead of it, there is little move to play on a gap and run to its max daily range - so that is the reason for the hold as I did it rather than try for the gap play Monday. I'm ITM and APR does not have much theta burn yet so there is little to no downside in that sense of holding over a weekend. If I'm wrong I get my azz handed to me, but I decided for this time to play that level of risk and sized smaller. If a substantial red opening occurred, I would not panic out immediately, but wait for the gap fade for recovery, then flip and short TNA if it failed to overshoot the gap fill and took out it's LOD after the fill. So the downside of that play is not a whipeout unless there was a red gap and run at the open. - Analyze.