Friday, March 5, 2010

BACK TO THE GAME update

Supress your anger...forget about the Ponzi of all ponzis...zip it and move on. Jobs numbers are improving. Things are moving ahead. It has to be true because it is on CNBC. Even the spinners on CNBC were muted in their celebration of the jobs numbers. You could almost sense that they are in on the "fix", but that is my tin foil hat talking again.

They quickly went to the Chris Dodd segment and began painting the reform of the bank regulations legislation. I fell warm and fuzzy now and am going back into the water to play "the game". Make no mistake if you are going to invest then realize you are in a casino. A rigged casino. I do not have a crystal ball and neither does Joe. As some of the brilliant comments on this blog have referred to in the past you are playing a game designed to take your money. The point ......don't cry when these guys destroy you. I am not sanguine about my prowess in this meltdown. In fact, I believe that even the accounts I have left to trade will be deemed worthless eventually one way or antoher. But its the only game and I am in it.

Market is moving up today on better than expected jobs news. Perfect cover for a sell off today but doesn't matter. Gold in a breakout so be accumulating. My favorites here are ANV EGO GFI JAG AUY SSRI SLW. Go getum GL

Do not forget to watch oil...its headed for 85.....so try to pay attn.

A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining and wants it back the minute it begins to rain....Mark Twain

Just keepin it real so keep an eye on these ...

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1267815600.php

42 comments:

  1. CBS - I feel for you reading last blog comments. I actually wasn't waiting on a lower entry two weeks back, and I have some miners already as a small core, but I never made a GTC order and I am watching it go higher as you are. Should have set some orders up, stuff moves too fast then the psychology sets in being the bottom feeder I am - "I'm not buying now that its up 5%". LOL I do need to get rid of that mentality but I'm also comfy erring on the side of caution.

    FYI - latest Taibbi...love this guy

    http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2010/03/03/santelli-on-predatory-lending-you-cant-cheat-an-honest-man/

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  2. Well we just hit Precther's 10538...will that be it? He's got 17.54 on silver...will we get it? TXB

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  3. Homer,
    Thanks, but the market is still here. I never cry (for long) over missing something. "I would rather be out of a trade,wishing I was in, than in a trade, wishing I was out."...:)

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  4. good find Homer. The first rule of trading I learned was to protect my capital. I set a limit on losses at all the casinos including this one.

    kli keeps refering to this as a game and it is.
    But I look at it as war. I am out manned and out gunned. so I have become a sniper hiding in the weeds picking off my targets one by one and then moving on. sometimes I am wounded but never fatally and I let my wounds heal and live to fight another day.

    I have seen a lot of good traders just give up the past year. They just got tired of being technically and fundamentally right and have their trades go against them because of the rigged game. The odds are with the house and they always come out ahead, but some individuals win as well.

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  5. Homer,

    It's good to hear from you bud, hope all is well.

    Joe

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  6. Agreed CBS - as I said, I feel comfortable, stings for a little, but I'm getting a lot better at not making decisions emotionally. I just need to be smarter about establishing prices and getting orders in knowing I can't watch all the time. And props as always to the brains here, its not like I wasn't warned it could be the bottom a few weeks back. Anyway, here's to hoping they beat the miners up one more time...

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  7. Homer,

    Focus on ALU!

    Joe

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  8. guys and gals..i have alu as a core holding that I trade around now but not day trade....I will add if it pulls back based on market resistance..but this is a nice put away and hold here....big company cheap market cap....nice small hold..currently building out 4G....over 77K employees ...its not a ponzi company like many

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  9. picked up ALU @3.35 and TZA at 7.795. ssri, jag and slw all doing well. going to set some stops and hit the sack. GLTA

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  10. All,

    ALU's 52 week low is $1 hit March 6th 2009, when S&P 500 was at it's lowest (666). Couple of weeks ago was a great buy at 2.70. The worst case scenario I see for ALU is price drop to $1 IF entire market collapses and S&P goes down to 600 or lower. I do not consider this stock a trading stock. In down days it does not go down much and in up days it gains modestly. Liquidity and volume is never an issue. I told kli to buy at 2.70 couple of weeks ago and I mentioned if it drops to $2 then really load up. The worst case down side is $2 from current price and up side is to $6 or $7.

    Joe

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  11. Kli you have been right on this whole ride from 666 S&P Thanks for the great news and insight.
    Sad to see the shorts getting killed here but they know the game and it's a Meat grinder market right now. Love the miners GSS been on fire. I'm up 42% gotta love it. Thanks again keep up the good work
    Matt

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  12. what's the problem with AUY yesterday and today? Anyone here to comment?

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  13. For the original post about suppress your anger...there is no reason to have emotion at all. DO NOT TRADE TO NEWS like jobs reports, and do not form an opinion about upcoming news events to skew your trade. You are told news to put you in the wrong mindset INTENTIONALLY. That has been the weakness of shorties for a year now. News to us is old news to the ponzi with the millions they spend on market research. And if the new is in truth bad, they will spin it and revise it later anyway. Trade to T/A, turn off CNBC, ignore all message boards and most blogs especially EW blogs. That will make this market tradeable for you. I missed the first part of the week but crushed the trades last 2 days, great market to trade to if you have NO OPINION and just trade to the price action and sector mechanics. - Analyze.

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  14. Analyze,

    CENX kicking butt, nice recovery from $11, the others including SGY, SWC well heheeeeee!

    Joe

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  15. Analyze,

    CENX kicking butt, nice recovery from low of 11. SGY and SWC, heheeee!

    Joe

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  16. Joe, CENX has been a beast, X, F, FLS, and others recently have literally ripped higher, great options trades on those this week. - Analyze.

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  17. "Focus on ALU!"

    Hey Joe, got it, thanx.

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  18. I watch CNBC to get a feel for sentiment and where GS is trying to push the weak hands in other words Analyze is right but I watch it and in a sense "lean the other way" if it confirms my trade. They have done this in a macro sense with gold convincing you it was a "wasted investment" for years while they quietly accumulated....but then Joe knows that is a different story.....hehehe

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  19. Auy.....ok here is my take anon....only a GUESS....but it is a big volume vehicle and the recent 1cent miss on earnings is probably and excuse for the boyz to lean on it ...push it down and accumulate.....its the way the game is played....I have a core and hope to add in the 9.50 range.....

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  20. Thanks kli - anon/wolfsonite

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  21. ALU, PBR still has some room to go up a wee bit more along with the S&P before profit taking based on daily techs. S&P is maxed out the daily but the weekly has additional room up to the 1148 level.

    Retracement levels are now at 1100 and 1050, looks like a trading range is being defined. The 200 week moving average limit 1225 is not in play for this round, looks like a game of treading water without going for the brass ring. Looks like after some more distribution another test of 100 dma, small chance of 200 dma and then back up again to the upper band. Brutal environment unless you either have the inside churn points, go for the scalps, or prepare a strong cash and physical gold position.

    The paper proxy gold stuff like PHYS is utter crap, stick with the strong miners or hold the physical.

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  22. Guys/Gals...with China saying they are going to continue to stockpile commodities...won't that begin to cause inflation since that should push prices up? And would that hurt any hope of a recovery we might have here in the US? TXB...thoughts anyone?

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  23. AUY and GORO finally tempted me to strengthen the core.. Maybe Kli is right and there will be an AUY opportunity in the 9.50 range.. if this market ever gets around to tanking.. But it looks cheap enough to me here.

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  24. TXB
    Inflation only in essentials and base commodities and energy.

    There is no recovery to hurt, what your are seeing is demand/consumption being brought forward with things like cash for clunkers, first time home debtor incentives, and stockpiling commodities now before it gets really pricey via this $2 trillion of USD fiat China has.

    Get the Feeling, after getting a Toyota during the cash for clunkers deal and finding out it's on the recall list and then losing your job.

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  25. Agree with red on physical gold and miners ....PHYS no opinion yet ......but alpha article and others indicate it may only be useful for a hedge in 401ks where you cant own physical...anyway will know as time goes by

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  26. Ty for your insight Red6...AIG one of the leaders today..hmmmmm, they say they may need more help from the govie...WHAT A JOKE!! When does the insanity stop??? Oh I'll add...I really do not understand how we can rally like this with almost no volume...confused, sick and tired of this! TexasBlondie

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  27. Wife got some PHYS in the Sep account(broker is RBC). Like it more for the fact it will not act like GLD in that it will recognize a long term cap gains and not be looked at as a commodity. I laughed when I found out the requirement to trade it in for physical, we're not quite there yet. LOL

    FYI, broker advised more and more people are taking possession via a COMEX contract. Requirement not as high as PHYS. Still hurdles in regards to transport, storage, etc.

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  28. TXB,

    Deflation for leverage assets ( home,,etc) and STAGFLATION for essentials & energy continues. Resistance for oil is now at 85, if broken then 89/90 is the next resistance. Also from seasonal perspective energy remains strong between now and June.

    Joe

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  29. TXB,

    Through out yrs I have enjoyed betting AGAINST prechter especially in Gold and Oil, heheeee!

    Joe

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  30. Analyze,

    You can not take away CNBC from KLI, he watches it for the ladies. He is depressed these days since they are not showing the British Lady who was there for a while. Kli is a dirty old man,heheeee!

    Joe

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  31. cant find phone.....anyway you are wrong ...about the girls....and BTW where is Mandy...whoops.....

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  32. kli,


    HEHEEEEEEEEEEE!

    Joe

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  33. kli,

    You should write a book, " Confessions Of a Dirty Old Man", just make sure your wife does not get to read it, heheeeee!

    Joe

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  34. Dont worry she has the nose of a blood hound...but the face of an "angel" (better get that in)

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  35. kli,

    Deadly COMBO,heheee!

    Joe

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  36. Ah yes, the eye candy of CNBC, they bring it out to flame the fire of strong uptrends. That may be an indicator, load up on OTM puts if they bring out butch chicks that look like John Goodman. - Analyze.

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  37. Edit: Fan the flame. I was looking at pictures of Erin Burnett, had me lose some concentration. - Analyze.

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  38. Any comments on the Vix......can't stay there

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  39. VIX still supports the premise we have had for awhile now, of go long if SPX 1090 exceeded up to 1150 but allows an anomoly of 1156 max for a new high before a retrace. - Analyze.

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  40. Retro 80's Friday night music post.

    Platinum Blonde
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCfEAzeLP-w

    Loverboy
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E82ozXyNjk

    Martika
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oo2K9vkfUoE&feature=fvst

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  41. great tunes....thnx....and Bill Maher was amazing tonight catch the replay if you missed it the next few days....

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  42. Kli, I will do that, had some things come up that took me out of pocket for the first half of the trading week, but managed to get back in synch from mid week on. - Analyze;

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