Friday, March 26, 2010

THE CANARY IN THE COAL MINE update II

When this bubble pops..and it will...its over. Turn out the lights and and forget it. We can chat about the equity market all we wish but this is the monster.

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the almost three-decade bond market rally may be drawing to a close.

Excess borrowing in nations including the U.S., U.K. and Japan will eventually lead to inflation as governments sell record amounts of debt to finance surging deficits, Gross said. Pimco, which announced in December that it would offer stock funds for the first time, is advising that investors buy the debt of counties such as Germany and Canada that have low deficits and higher-yielding corporate securities.

“Bonds have seen their best days,” Gross said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “We are focused more in spread space than in yield space. Durations should be shorter than index and you should be taking a little more risk in terms of spreads.”



update I unfortunate or fortunate ponzi accident??? The numbers keep climbing.

http://www.businessinsider.com/director-of-abu-dhabi-wealth-fund-missing-after-plane-crash-2010-3

update II... Sailors caught lighting farts or "Why I own gold"

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?id=2730690

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?id=2730429

31 comments:

  1. AUY and EGO gave nice gap today.

    Joe

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  2. @ Sis & All,
    I know this may not be the proper forum, but I will ask any way. I mentioned a situation a couple days ago on this blog about a dear little old lady who is being reamed by her insurance company for a needed medication. Her portion of the cost went from 300 to 1700 per mo. Sis mentioned medicare part D (Which she does have) and also an advocate. She will only be able to afford this for 1 year, and it is a 2 year deal. Anyone who may offer helpful insight would be very much appreciated, and again, Thanks.

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  3. Just in case kli wants this to be private (Which I totally understand, and respect) you can send responses to my e-mail at cbsflooring@yahoo.com

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  4. For gap and swing traders, SWC continues to be the stud of the yr.

    Joe

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  5. Trade for me today was SSRI and SWC.....dumped what I picked up yesterday....small ammt. core remains strong...watch for volume to move to add

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  6. If you have your core WATCH for the turn....otherwise its gaps only gang and SWC remains a mthrfkr

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  7. kli,

    Money flow into LVS is strong,heheeee!

    Joe

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  8. hyenas are all over LVS today, volume heavy, nice movement, great feeding day. GS is allowing hyenas to get a nice chunk of the buffalo.

    Joe

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  9. sheldon is a favored son for the boyz and will be pumped to the max.

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  10. Kli,
    may i ask what you mean by sheldon? I am out of the loop on that term, it seems -- thanks, sylva

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  11. Have bids in just above the LOD for SSRI, SLW, JAG. SWC and XRA.

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  12. Sylva,

    Kli is refering to Gary Sheldon, the CEO of LVS ( Las Vegas Sands).

    Joe

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  13. kli's response is in regard to why LVS is going up, Gary Sheldon the CEO of LVS is very close to the boyz ( GS) and hyenas know it as well.

    Joe

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  14. N. Korea...(appears)just sunk S. Korea ship...may have something to do with the pop on gold/silver...TXB

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  15. thanks Joe
    sylva

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  16. thanks Joe, appreciate

    Sylva

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  17. oops..thought my first post did not go through, so reposted---sorry

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  18. South Korea news is a wild card....but my guess is it gets buried fast....anyway its why you gotta hold a core of gold/miners in this environment...

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  19. Where is immred6?

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  20. He will weigh in when he weighs in...

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  21. Sorry busy at work and placing in small core position in JAG at the close as it bounced off the 200 dma, could go lower but will add stronger miners like GFI or GG if it goes lower, this is more speculative.

    Large modern missile corvettes don't usually suffer sudden catastrophic explosions on their own that sink them. If the incident was deliberate gold could be starting another run to test the 50 dma resistance. The worse the situation the more market support you will see. Little NK dictator might have bought some heavy index puts on the South Korean, Japan and US indices, GS doesn't really care if they screw over Prechter cult members or Krazy Kim.

    Looks like a shift in the Administration from cash for home clunkers to writing down MBS home loans for dead beat owners at the expense of MBS investors, that along with the current higher Treasuries should be interesting.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=m50,b,m200&a=r14,ss,m26-12-9&c=

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  22. Hi, all. Joe, your definition of politics is brilliant, know it's not the place for this, but I am in awe and inspired by you guys every day. Looking at the s&p charts with walayat numbers in mind, who knows what they do next, maybe s.korea was an excuse to take gold/silver back up. It just seems that they want to confuse the hell out of retail this year, that is their objective--confuse and annihilate. - Nancy

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  23. From Analyze: I thought I would leave a short note so that people know I am not ducking them after my post a couple nights ago with stock selections, I just have been tied up. The watchlist remains valid, some of the moves have just not happened yet. AAPL did break out, great one there. S had a nice day after the trend break, but failed to break out of the top from its recent reversal trend, I had to dump it around 4, but the ride up was profitable. IBM started to wake up as predicted, but that one is a good example of what may be confusing some in price action they are seeing, and I can also explain the RIMM behavior in the same context, and it is also the reason why the 1173 initial breakout did not hold.
    Basically, most of the indices are trapped in consolidation ranges, so channelling stocks (like the commercial they used to run on CNBC) has been the modus operandi this week, along with gap trades. With most underlying indices trapped in consolidation ranges, the behaviors you will see in many stocks are similar to the IBM/RIMM example. A tech stock showing strength will break out above resistance, but then the move will dampen since there are no other followers joining the party, the index itself being trapped in consolidation overrides, the breakout fades, and it falls back to, or slightly below resistance. I traded IBM a couple times, the second one yesterday was my big winner, as it ripped up, but still I had to sell around midday as the technicals started breaking down, as they did everywhere slightly later. Notice IBM showing strength has hung out near resistance. Something more extended like RIMM started to move early in the week, but then was dampened early by lack of followers due to tech consolidation, therefore it rolled over quickly. Since it is overtended already, it broke away further from resistance and moved down to a technical level on the intraday yesterday to find support on an intraday reveral pattern. So extended stocks return to levels like that during these overall market consolidation phases, while the stronger have the IBM behavior. So what is more profitable to play? Actually the laggards are, since they are more likely to return to their channel base and ramp, while the ones like IBM may remain stuck in the upper half of their channel waiting for a general breakout. There are cycles the market needs to go through, kind of like getting the right players in order, so that they are marching in the right order to cause breakouts, that is also happening here, but don't worry too much about that. Just search for channels and play them until the real breakout occurs, then you switch over to the ones like IBM at that point. Hopefully that post is not overly confusing, it is as well as I can explain it in this many words.

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  24. Nancy, what's your view on Joe? Why do you think he is brilliant? I am asking because I am new to the board and I hear good things about him.

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  25. I think that Joe guy is shifty but that's just me. OBTW anyone watch NBC news tonight they had a piece on fruit and vegetables price increases over the past 12mo ....some were up 100%. Sounds like stagflation is ramping as "shifty" said it would.

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  26. One final tag onto the post I left, it would be remiss of me to not mention that J Najarian has the VIX levels on his radar here as a danger flag, especially the pivot levels of the Thursday candle, so have that up and watch it on Monday and do not trade in a vacuum on just positions without watching the behavior of that as well. Normally it is not something to track as closely as you should here. There is some concern over where that is sitting so do not drink the bear or bull koolaid just yet, play what comes, not what you hope for. It was off my radar tonight but it is a good catch. Just wanted to put this out there since it is easy to take on a bias without realizing it and not be open to both sides. - Analyze.

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  27. good comments tonight analyze.....

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  28. Thank you Kli, better than the anonymous poster previous to your comment who was probably taking us to the "next level", although his levels are probably not related to stock trading. Have you ever thought of setting up DISQUS on your site? You can filter out the morons and just have those who are providing value give posts. Just a thought. I realize an open forum where people can just vent has its merits too. Hope your night is going well. - Analyze.

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  29. Kli, you will notice even the ponzi speaking thru CNBC tonight made comments about the lack of options action today, like anyone they have to speak to what they are told to, off the GS-run teleprompter, but people like that are also in fear of the top technical analysts and options people worldwide. I have to defer to my superiors like Jon Najarian, when he puts the flag up, everyone should pay attention. It is much easier to trade just straight positions than options, one of the things that really helped me gain T/A strength was trading intraday options, I suggest no one try it unless on paper. You are right, or you are dead, is the mantra on that style of trading. Try it and you will soon find out if you can run with the big dogs or need to piss with the puppies. It is really helpful in putting T/A into warp, in other words, you need to be able to analyze a chart down thru timeframes in about 5 seconds and make the call right there, or you lose. Some people can get lucky for awhile, but Father Time will catch up. What is a bit concerning to me is the real pivot levels, not the ones you get off a pivot calculator that are geared toward typical fib retracements, but the real candle pivots from volume profile, which allow for screw-overs, and I am not sure how many big money people trade to the real ones. Definitely the algos hit the real ones. Also the problem with the VIX is how do you interpret put protection versus put buying, and also how many are selling on the call side lol. One has to treat this thru brute force on direction only. The game is a-foot so to speak. Play light is the name of the game for Monday. If the trend is established after, so be it. But the naive chasers get killed here. Much of the action over the past couple days has been to shake out retail, typical ponzi. - Analyze.

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