Tuesday, March 30, 2010

GREATEST BULL EVER update II

I love hyperbole. I can't help myself. After all this is history. I perused seveal news articles and blogs but really couldn't come up with an eyecatching story today. But last nights NBC news piece on state's budget deficits kept resonating in my head. They threw out a figure of 380 BILLION dollars as a total which stopped me dead in my tracks. I couldn't even wrap my imagination around that. So I checked last years total and it was 110 billion. What in the hell is happening to us? Have we gone mad. Oh wait that already has happened.

Never mind.....let's get back to the matter at hand and that is THE PLAY. Keep your eyes on the miners still. The PTB wants gold down and are accumulating. So this could play out for awhile longer. I am seeing short term bullish signs so be sharp. Will try to update more today so gl.

update I thnx red...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/California-looks-into-banks-rb-3416715665.html;_ylt=A9G_R0ihabJLbj4A1H27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1cDZqZW1tBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNjYWxpZm9ybmlhbG8-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

update II......just when you thought it was safe to inflate yourself out of debt..

The key item missing from most commentary on this subject matter is debt and liabilities that are denominated in foreign currencies as that can mask a stealth trend towards potentially imminent bankruptcy that can suddenly blow up in the face of a countries citizens who had been previously mislead by official statistics into thinking that the debt situation was under control, much as Icelanders experienced during 2008 where one day they enjoyed one of the highest standards of living amongst westerners to next day wake up to be bankrupt and poorer in terms of purchasing power than many third world countries. The key driver for state bankruptcy and currency collapse is the amount a country owes or is liable to foreigners, as debt denominated in foreign currencies cannot be inflated away as governments can do with domestic debt so it is one of the primary driving forces for a country going bankrupt as it is unable to meet the increasing interest payments due in foreign currency as its own currency falls.

http://www.walayatstreet.com/

"In matters of grave importance, style, not sincerity is the vital thing." oscar wilde

26 comments:

  1. Looks like JAG just turned. Joe, what do you think of the 2 week chart for JAG?

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  2. Im still in EGO. It is being very coy it seems.

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  3. no turn in miners yet....short term I am bullish but only mild and I won't go heavy here.

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  4. CBS,

    February 5th Gold hit low of 1050 and JAG hit 8.89. If in April overall market retraces and Gold goes down as well to test 1050 mark then 8.89 support can be tested. If you look at the chart and historical prices JAG has been in the down trend mode after March 17th when it hit 12.20 especially during higher volume days, I would not be reckless now if you want to swing it. Look for high volume and break out move for sign.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=JAG

    Joe

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  5. No Its gonna turn up. If it does, beginners luck.

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  6. It's the same as ALU at 2.70

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  7. CBS,

    The reason CNAM is up today and it's expected is due to anticipation of earning announcement tomorrow, tomorrow after earnings will be the real teller as far as direction.

    Joe

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  8. CBS,

    Do not compare ALU with JAG. JAG is a junior miner and does not have the extensive reserves major miners have, ALU is one of the largest telecom corporations in the world with over 70,000 employees. JAG's performance at this level depends on overall market, price of Gold and whether big boys want to hold junior miners at current prices or not. The reason 2.70 was comfortable entry for ALU was due to the fact that it droped from 3.40 to that level in TWO session after earning announcement which meant GS was shorting it and they covered after that. JAG right now is treading water and caution is advised. It all depends on what your startegy and approach for JAG is, I am talking about gap trading and swing trading. If you are talking about buy and hold then be my guest.

    Joe

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  9. By the way the spike you saw in JAG to 12.20 in March 17th was purely SHORT COVERING and not buy by big boys which is why it got shorted again from there to where it is now.

    Joe

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  10. VIX is creeping towards 20. ALU is a lower volatility large tech longer term play which will correct with the rest of the market. JAG is a highly speculative miner, like Joe pointed out, low 9s is minimum downside. Not adding anymore to the token small core on JAG until I see gold break hard to the downside.

    As for AAPL more downside forward after the Verizon iphone announcement and dragging tech sector with it, nothing revenue exciting hitting the market near term.

    So still heavy cash, not too excited with the volume either to commit long at the moment and shorting has to be very selective.

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  11. OK.
    I was looking at a 4 week chart on JAG, and there seems to be a pattern that usually results in a turnaround, if you compare to other juniors. I was only bringing up ALU as a correlation to show a turning point happening, not the similarities between the two stocks as I know there is none. But the pattern is one that I have noticed before, and is usually followed by some kind of upward breakout.
    Thanks. I know you are a good trader, and maybe even a great one.

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  12. CBS,

    At the current price JAG is overvalued even if it gets a bounce, ALU at 2.70 was undervalued especially when the drop happened in two days. So even if you want to compare drop and temporary recovery I do not like JAG at current price. If you are in it now I HOPE it goes up, I would not buy JAG now because of HOPE in the ponzi market when speculative stocks have already gone up a lot. No need for me to risk anything in JAG now.

    Joe

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  13. Joe,

    As far a tech goes do you have an opinion on VECO? Looks like the momo's have been working this one bouncing it off the 5 ema

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  14. Temo,

    VECO is in the LED area which has seen nice cycle growth especially with all the talk about green technology. You are correct about the 5ema and seems like it's losing steam in the short term, if we get a market correction in April I would say VECO would be a good buy in 30s.

    Joe

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  15. Kli/Analyze,

    What is your opinion of the AMT action/price today. Does this change your opinion from yesterday's statement? thanks sylvart

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  16. SYL AMT is only a trade from a chart perspective still in an uptrend as is the overall BS market....and its a GS baby so you make your own decision. I don't own it only looking....

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  17. Oops put this link in yesterdays thread lol.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ireland-stunned-uncover-truly-shocking-information-its-banks-institutes-austerity

    Ireland looks under the rug and admits what's under it!

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  18. Trading this market outside of sh!ts and grins is not advisable, even if you know the technical price points. JAG bounced off the lower daily bollinger band for those who care and didn't puke it up.

    Back to Kli's topic, The PTB want people to continue going into muni's or their sovereign Greek equivalent for the next 10+ plus years at the current pathetic rates as they issue even more paper 6-12 months down the road that pay incrementally more interest. The problem is too much debt paper is being issued lately with more in the pipeline to cover day to day operations. The stagflation into 2011 is coming along just fine, check gasoline prices.

    Also we states like California investigating banks on the basis they are overstating the the risk of CA cds instruments. If anything the risks are actually understated.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/California-looks-into-banks-rb-3416715665.html;_ylt=A9G_R0ihabJLbj4A1H27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1cDZqZW1tBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNjYWxpZm9ybmlhbG8-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=


    Still patiently waiting for physical gold to do a hard multi day swan dive, but someone keeps hitting the bids as soon as it gets under 1090 very annoying.

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  19. you cheap baastid red......hehehe......me too

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  20. Hi Joe
    I am not a trader I just like reading this blog. I have a dumb question to ask, how did you know that it was short covering that drove the price of Jag up to 12.20? Was it volume?

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  21. No volume.........anon in a low volume stock.....you can hide in AUY if you are accumulating but not in a stock like jag

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  22. Thanks Kli, and this is a great site/lblog.

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  23. Damn I just realized that per capita Ireland's new $30B bailout is 2x as big as TARP was here! Where's a printing press when you need one?

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