Monday, March 8, 2010

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL

The warm spring winds are beginning to blow with the rains soon to follow repeating the yearly life cycle of nature bringing renewed growth and life to our hemisphere. And so life goes. The same can be said of the market and our economy. Or can it? Imagine if our earth had been hit by meteorite ......say 7 miles wide and knocked off its axis by a couple of meters with a tremendous ammount of particulate matter thrust into the atmosphere occluding sun for not just days but months....Maybe thats not a perfect analogy but when a structural issue is present that is not being adressed by the PTB then I think this analogy just might apply to our current state of affairs. Yes I still maintain that the 61.8 fib "may" be reached by the PTB but at what cost will this entail.

Our structural job loss situation based on a 70% consumer based economy is not being adressed with the current stimulus enacted. So rest assured if job losses accelerate later this year ......MOREstimulus is coming and deficits will worsen. This recipe for disaster is set in stone IMO. Where will more jobs come if the current strategy of restoring CONfidence in our economy by propping up Wall Street and the Stock Market fail to galvanize consumer spending? And How can it??? The consumer is destroyed. Credit is maxed out. The ponzi has already accomplished that. Now its just a matter of picking the bones from those of us that managed to survive the initial meteor strike. In other words they have to suck the marrow from the strongest members of the system that did not put themselves into debt to sustain their own vital signs. That is a parasitic relationship in nature....not a symbiotic one. I hope that I am wrong and heaven knows I have been before but to this stage of events I have not been but will hope that they can pull this off......just don't see it gang.

For those that are still investors.....I like gold here a lot...watch for 1150 to break and if it does 1300 is coming. More importantly buy physical gold. Next be aware of the miner group. GG ABX AUY ANV EGO SLW SSRI JAG GFI....its gonna be a monster move over the next 4 months if my suspicions play out. Right now have a position and try and trade around it. gl gang

19 comments:

  1. with 8 million jobs lost the growth will have to be 200k per month for more than 3 years.

    consumers wont lead us out of this recession.

    Business profits are still based on the bottom line and not top line growth.

    I was one of the first to agree with your 1200 call last year and still think it will happen. Not sure about 1300 tho. But your right at what cost and woe be to us who have to pay the bill.

    Nice pull back on jag, auy, slw and ssri. they look ripe for the picking.

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  2. ALU unchanged today. Waiting for something?

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  3. ALU IS NOT a ahort term trade .....hold for intermediate term.......and temo Added to ssri

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  4. auy having a hard time at the woodshed ... someone doesn't like that pos. it'll start to look very tempting around 10.

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  5. bought some alu and ssri. anyone know why goldseek and silverseek are down?

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  6. All,

    I am trading DTO today, saw the turn at 61. Be careful if you are trading oil in the short side.
    Fun and games.

    Joe

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  7. Did some charting... Does anyone see a pullback to around 1120 from here before market heads higher?
    Thanks for imput. Derek57

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  8. The reason AUY is going down is due to earnings last week, profit came in just slightly less than expected – 14 cents a share, vs. the consensus for a penny extra – on revenue of $400 million, or about $24 million less than expected. Full year earnings also missed estimates. Reserves from continuing operations were neutral year over year as production was offset or replaced by reserve additions. GS and other hedge funds are shorting it now , and of course they will bring it back up later when fear is really set in.

    Joe

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  9. Goldseek.com and it's sister silver seek.com site are temorarily down due to maintenance and work done by web site designers.

    Joe

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  10. Thanks joe. Will the right entry point for AUY be driven by a certain price level (in your opinion) or certain techincal developments?

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  11. AUY and the GDX look to "possibly" setting up for a bullish cross of the 20dma in the next 2 days that must be respected....today may be their shakeout move but keep your eye on it.

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  12. A few thoughts tonight related to some positions and general market direction: Supposedly Chambers has a big announcement to make tomorrow. Did you notice today that AAPL maintained its Friday gap up, but flatlined, and NDX did not breakout like I mentioned over the weekend...how surprising that Chambers now needs to make an announcement that I assume will be bullish of tech to give a breakout for that sector to last long enough for a consolidation on retail. Watch for that and play back to retail after the short consolidation. Ah yes the ponzi.
    A couple thoughts on SPX and how to play the CSCO announcement. It would be optimal to see a red opening, I would be a buyer at SPX 1129/1130. If for some reason SPX melted down, MTL is a pig to ride to the downside.
    I would hit RIMM front month if there is enough dampening early to keep it from running at the opening. Expect 76.5 as a target and dump it there as long as it holds above 72 early.
    I like the KBH chart, that has potential to run to 20.5.
    X is a great long, as long as the SPX premise holds, but wait for the retrace and optimally Friday gap fill on this one first.
    The GLD chart taken by itself appears to be dicey and at a cross-roads of needing to giddyup immediately, but the PM index is a better read, so I believe EGO and the other positions Kli listed have ramp potential.
    GS is still in a downtrend despite the CNBC hype, any more upside and it would be a potential trend reversal. I would be interested if it broke 172, then I would probably hit it long there, but only if SPX supported the trend premise when it did so. Outside of that I am not an overall fan of $BIX since I believe GS skews that and other banks are down to flat from here.
    Finally back to SPX, I posted two or more weeks ago that breaching 1090 meant go long to 1150, no change on that premise. I also mentioned the possibility of a spike to 1156, but I would not chase that first breach over 1150, that should end up being a kangaroo tail for bagholders so careful on that if it transpires. - Analyze.

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  13. great post analyze and yup miners are definitely not revealing their hand yet......

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  14. Very good guidance Analyze. I think a drop of GLD to 107/108 could be a good entry. The 113 resistance is going to take some time to overcome but when it does 120 should be the next target.

    I think the SPX opens lower tomorrow and if it does I plan to short SPXU sub 1130.

    When do you guys change the clocks overthere? This 90 minutes of trading per day is getting old. hehehe

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  15. Actually the first 90 minutes usually ends up being the only part worth trading, get some sleep while we watch the charts flatline lol. GLD bears watching, it has the potential to go up even from here. On sub 1130 if that happened, watch 1125/1127 carefully. Given the ponzi I am more comfortable waiting to react to long entries rather than riding short with the sword of Diamacles swinging over my head. Dangerous times. - Analyze.

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  16. I actually meant to short SPXU not to buy SPXU. Shorting the inverse etfs has worked better than going long in any of them.

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  17. Ah, I missed that sublety, long day I guess. You're right on playing the inverses in that fashion. Gotta drop but GL tomorrow, should be a wild one as usual. - Analyze.

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  18. What is your take on buying rare gold coins. $20 liberty 0's etc...

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