Friday, March 12, 2010

I THINK I'M GOING MAD...MAD I TELL YOU..

Mad mad mad. Sorry ..I couldn't resist the self indulgence. Just another day in the ramp to the 61.8 fib and the rendezvoux with glory or is it a rendezvous with hell. You know.....nature's law is waiting somewhere down this ill conceived march to hell and nature's law will not be denied. I hope when the they had the meetings that finally drafted this solution in early 2009 they informed the President what the downside risk of this dash to cash was going to entail...lol. You know they didn't.

Thats not our concern. Neither is structural unemployment or malinvestment. Our interests is what to make of the next ponzi move and how to profit. My 85 target on oil may be achieved. Keep you eyes peeled for it. This baby WILL turn.

Retail sales were strong today that may provide the good news to correct the market later today. We will see. Very tricky but don't miss the forest for the trees. The market is overbought here and needs some air taken out.

You know the drill ....have your core in the miners and when this baby pulls back add for the ride to glory......the pump is on....gl

49 comments:

  1. eurozone is doing well. greece will be saved. no worries for the other piigs.
    who the hell is doing all the consumer purchasing?

    oh well the ponzi lives another day and nimble is the name of the game.

    I am giong to break my right arm if I ever think of buying TZA. I havent timed that thing right the last 2 times.

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  2. Same here temo i have used it as a "hedge"...hehehe OUCH

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  3. I am putting some money into the june RBOB contract. Gas prices go up every year into memorial day. A 20 cent increase in gas price gets 150%. Works every year.

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  4. Joe, 1150 changes nothing for 2010 right? We are still looking to trade gaps, and be very nimble and cold right? On a day like today, I dont see any gaps, only pops up with pretty high volume.
    Thanks.

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  5. dump your gold and miners now...if not you are about to get slaughtered in a bad and ugly way...

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  6. CBS,

    For me 1150, 1250, or 1050 makes no difference. Last yr was the yr of buy and hold. This yr is an excellent trading yr. I trade gaps since there is no need for me personally to risk anything else, I buy and sell heavy for shorter period. You can swing trade stocks this yr and do well without gap trading.

    Joe

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  7. I had X calls off the gap fill from yesterday but sold about 30 minutes ago, sweet trade. That was my longest buy and hold for awhile lol. I will be in and out today, this is likely to be a chop shop rest of day. Be nimble, ignore composite indices, they will freak you out of good trades, just watch the positions you are in for volume and price. - Analyze.

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  8. volume in S and ALU is horrific.....hmmmmm...also trannies are sucking air today....should be interesting

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  9. also added small dto today......will test da waters....

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  10. BTW mark werent you in the P3 slaughter zone the past few weeks....

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  11. Jammer,

    Stay away from the market NOT because of P3. This yr, those who believe in P3 will get slaughtered just like last yr and those who believe in buy and hold for long periods will get their head handed to them. This game is not for majority of retail traders/investors whether they believe in black and white short OR black and white long. FED controls everything and they will keep the market within range with periods of overshoot to upside or down side BUT NO COLLAPSE this yr.

    Joe

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  12. Congrats Analyze.

    dollar weak 50 ema is 79.54

    Mark buy some SPXU. When it gets to $5 they will reverse split it and you can double your money hehehehe

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  13. Mark...joe is telling you that this is not a market for you to be involved in. Your bias will make you only carion for the buzzards...(in this case the hyenas) ..but this will remaina chop shop all year ....traders like some of the guys and gals here will make money this year. But to think you can take a big position and not take some big hits this years is absurd. Grip and rip then tip n dip......all year long

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  14. Is today an options expiration day for PMs contracts? Gold and silver being held in a very tight range today.

    Thx

    -C

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  15. Playing X again for a little swing, may have abit of upward mojo left. I will dump it if not. - Analyze.

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  16. Swing batta batta, had to dump, technicals broke down. It happens. - Analyze.

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  17. Analyze,

    DTO was a nice swing today, very tough resistance when oil hits 83, DTO turned nicely again from 61.

    Joe

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  18. Heartless,

    How is your day?

    Joe

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  19. Joe, great one, that resistance level on oil will be a tough nut to crack especially with consumer sentiment on the minds of the ponzi. This is a real chop shop of horrors now, they are headhunting now. The close should be interesting. - Analyze.

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  20. Analyze,

    Speaking of tape reading, look at the pattern lately for DTO, nice gaps between 61 and 63, watch and see if pattern changes soon or not. I have used the pattern to milk DTO. Once pattern changes and gives you confirmation then you adjust, no emotion, no bias. This is a good example of trading what market gives you.

    Joe

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  21. Joe, I will take a look at that and watch it. Something I do a lot at night (defining myself as a nerd now lol) is watch the futures and mentally take exits and entries off the technicals, and validate how well I am able to read the price action. Looking at historical charts everything seems to make "sense", way different to see price in action and not be able to peek at the right side of the chart to see where your mindset should be. Fun stuff. - Analyze.

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  22. Analyze,

    The reason for current DTO pattern is the crude oil price, GS is fluctuating it between 80.50 and 82.5, that needs tochange in order for the current pattern to change.

    Joe

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  23. Joe, should be a good move off that channel bust when it occurs. - Analyze.

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  24. Watch closely for the move in miners...I use GDX for volume confirmation on a reversal confirmation.....go back and look at 2/5 reversal day and tthe overall market was red if I remember right....

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  25. How does that reconcile with what we are seeing today? Thanks.

    -C

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  26. i am suspicious that the miners are going to turn in the next few days but don't get agressive yet...hold your core and let them signal it

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  27. By turn, you mean turn up? FWIW, Maund believes a big PM rally is headed our way.

    Thanks again.

    -C

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  28. This call is only a chart call....not a macro call.....watch the tape to confirm but if miners turn up next week on high volume that will be confirmation. I have a core and will not add unless I see that move....now that does not mean I dont try some gap trades ...but small only. We are in a nice consolidation pattern for four months now.....with nice trading. Joe would like to see them pounded...which they may get...if they do turn and thats a big If then we should see a nice run

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  29. C,

    Miners move depends on overall staus of the market since they are STOCKs, price of physical Gold, dollar inex, and OIL PRICES. Higher oil prices are not GOOD for miners since it adds to their cost of production and transportation & as a result of that the margins go down. Gold itself is in the cross-roads now hovering around 1100 an ounce. The best case scenario for miners is when oil retraces, dollar remains relatively strong, and Gold either drops from here to 1020 or goes side ways before going higher. IF this market does not retrace much and oil stays within 80 range then base metals and industrial metals ( CENX, SWC) will perform better than gold miners. Watch the FACTORS I just brought up for determining the direction of Gold miners.

    Joe

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  30. Forgive the typo, meant status and index.

    Joe

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  31. Joe, kli, analyze. How do you get confirmation of reversal besides with high volume? thanks.-N

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  32. Nancy,

    Just explained it, depends on the factors I mentioned in my previous post.

    Joe

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  33. nancy .....joes scenario would make an ideal situation for the miners and can be marked by a high volume reversal day in a red overall market with the dollar strengthening.... Joes scenario marks beautiful bottoms. Now what we may get here and what I am referring to is a turn in the intermediate time frame.....thats all

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  34. Nancy,

    If you look at the performance of gold miners this yr so far vs oil stocks & industrial metals, you would notice the important ROLE they have played in determining the direction of each sector and proved by the TAPE ( Gold miners underperforming other sectors). Market is a moving target and money flow changes hand depending on patterns and in the case of Gold Miners patterns are determined based on factors I mentioned. Look at performance of SWC ( industrial metal) vs Gold miners this yr so far.

    Joe

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  35. Incomplte statement in my previous post, corrected below:

    " you would notice the important ROLE the FACTORS I mentioned have played in determining the direction of each sector and proved by the TAPE"

    Joe

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  36. Great posts Joe on trend reversal. That was a nasty environment as expected in the second half today. There were a lot of algo sells across sectors to prevent a SPX breakout, they did not want this to run to the upside. F broke out on the close like everyone is buying a car this weekend, most everything else was in dampening mode, swatted down by algos whenever a bullish pattern would show up on the lower timeframes. No resolution today on our range conundrum, we shall see what next week holds. Very very good week overall though. - Analyze.

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  37. Nobody even looked at CNAM? I think it is still a good short. Disclaimer- "This is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks"..;)If you look at the 1,2,3,and 4 year charts, and then look at the 1 month, it is probably going down to 5 or 6. Joe, I am only basing this on price action, If I could short it I would have done so aroun 9.5...:)

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  38. CBS,

    CNAM is a heart attack stock due to low outstanding shares ( 10M) and extremley low float ( 4M) which means it can explode to the upside with low volume and also get crushed due to the same reason, it doubled in price since March 3rd and when it hit 11 GS shorted it. This puppy is in china division which makes it even more volatile.

    Joe

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  39. CBS, CNAM is a kind of stock which is not good for kli's heart, doubled in two days and then dump time, excellent pump and dump.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=CNAM

    Joe

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  40. thanks Joe! I was actually looking to add some CNAM on the next strong pullback at around 3-4 (buy metal ores in US dollars get paid in Chinese Yuan, nice!), especially since it's a Chinese front company where the CFO gets paid less than Kli's gardener.

    Saving most of the dry powder to rebuild the gold miner core, if they allow it to do the final bottoming process before the big ramp over the next 4-6 weeks.

    I was disappointed 1150 is still being the tease before the please.

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  41. thanks for the clarifications so will keep sharp eye on oil, dollar and volumes next week. Amazing how they closed s&p exactly on 1150 again. I have had good success with swc thanks to you. Have a great week-end all. - Nancy

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  42. Back again, due to overwhelming public support and exponentially increasing demand, the Friday night music post, once more with older songs since the current ones are formulatic garbage:

    Romantics
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwT9ltDBG14


    Powerstation
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUc629OcQPo


    Pet Shop Boys
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDe60CbIagg&feature=channel

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  43. All,

    CNAM reminds me of EDAP, low outstanding shares and low float, if you can catch it in the right time, it's a beautiful ride, just make sure not to fall in love with low float stocks since the beauty queen can change the SCREEN fast and show you Hellish HALLOWEEN as well.

    Joe

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  44. Ahahaha saw this over at Denninger:

    http://grayson.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=175363#main

    Alan Grayson busts out a 4-page healthcare bill.. Oh the corporate lobbys will love this. Grayson may be a democrat but I don't think he gets invited to the important meetings.

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  45. Yeah, as Johnny Carson used to say, " I did not know that" Thanks.

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  46. Great one here, Wembley stadium performance, Under Pressure;

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-xVb1qsPCw

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  47. I like the slowed down "under Pressure" with Freddie and David Bowie are best. Here's one performance, but they're all great:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAoEm7GY5Dw&feature=related

    "Under Pressure" was meant to be done by both Freddie and Bowie

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