Monday, March 15, 2010

NOW I KNOW HOW THEY DID IT

That China...those sneaky baastids. So what do you do to conceal your accumulation of an asset that is in limited supply and not squeeze the price to the moon. Unless you are GS there are limited means to conceal your intentions. But never underestimate the Chinese.

China purchased 454.1 tons of gold on its domestic market last year. It didn’t have to go shopping overseas. China can buy its own home-grown gold because for the last three years in a row, it’s been the world’s largest producer. China produced over 300 tonnes of gold for the first time ever in 2009, according to the China Gold Association.

What I also find interesting in the linked article is this little piece of logic that you had better read. You remember David Einhorn that singlehandedly stood in front of the Lehman/Fed ponzi machine and called them lying baastids back in 2008 and in my mind forced the hand of Treasury to take um out and give the creditors a haircut....yup...that's the guy. Well most of you are aware probably that his fund became a heavy investor in physical gold in the last two years. But listen to his logic....

But the case for gold is pretty simple. To paraphrase fund manager David Einhorn, if you believe monetary and fiscal policy across the world are sensible, sell gold and buy Treasuries. If you believe monetary and fiscal policy around the world are bad, sell Treasuries and buy gold. You don’t have to a cult follower or a true believer to profit from that kind of trade.

Only a guess....but I think that the program to keep gold down is failing. Maybe they have enough ammo left to keep it in this consolidation pattern for awhile but I am becoming suspicious there are too many forces outside of their control now. Those big short positions are tempting targets for these forces as they (the forces) accumulate now. When will it end? Stay tuned. I don't know and neither does "the whale" (Joe's new ID).... Most investors have there core of miners and are holding cash in hopes of one last buy signal. Dunno gang. The real smart money is buying physical gold.....the ultimate. gl gang

http://www.bearmarketinvestments.com/

37 comments:

  1. Thanks, kli. And speaking of smart, these two interviews with Jim Sinclair who called the top in gold to the day in 1980 are crucial: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/3/8_Jim_Sinclair.html and http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/3/10_Jim_Sinclair__Part_II.html I appreciate his referring to the attack on currencies as a nuclear attack in financial form. So, physical gold it is.

    ReplyDelete
  2. DTO, DTO,DTO,DTO..... Oil rolling over today,heheeee!

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  3. JAG showing some life. AUY looks like it wants lower.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Temo,

    I just tested Kli and he FAILED, it's called paying attention to smallest details when you want to make money from tape reading, he did not know what I said about SPRINT and pattern of trading for the past 3 session, the key was 3.58, it held and went up from there, good trade again!

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  5. Joe that 3.58 was dead on. No follow thru on the panic friday AH dump.

    looks like the boys wanna run up jag and take down AUY. Gonna watch it for another day or two to see what unfolds.

    ReplyDelete
  6. CBS,

    I did not forget about CNAM, so far so good,heheee!

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  7. nice tape today hehehhe....guess we find out after the bell what's goin on with JAG

    ReplyDelete
  8. kli,this is in line with what you and Joe mentioned before:

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=tm&bn=58157&tid=598424&mid=598873&tof=5&frt=2

    ReplyDelete
  9. I think what we are seeing in terms of T/A is pretty much what is alluded to in that string you posted Anon - there is no (or at least less than before) buy and hold, but predominantly day trading, along with the ponzi manipulations of the tape. So any T/A of the past is not valid now - a lot of the chart patterns and indicators of the past were based on assumptions of people holding on for downturns, and dumping when getting back to even etc, some of that does still occur since institutions need to accumulate and distribute over time, but not with the same level of retail participation as before. So there is a noticeable skew toward the day trading mechanics instead of the longer term T/A, unless an important sup/res level is reached, then bigger money comes in to have the reactions one might expect. When those levels are not in play it becomes dicey with normal T/A not working as one would expect. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Joe will not give predictions on the top but he is licking his chops if they push the 61.8 fib .....the bears will be destroyed if they arent already.....its pretty bad out there for traders.....the brokerages are losing there traders in large volumes now.......its the no bid market alluded to

    ReplyDelete
  11. Joe I dunno about Sprint, but kli's intermediate calls have been the best I've seen. He always predicts a nonsensical chop-shop and there's always a nonsensical chop-shop! 100% accuracy!

    Following kli I always turn out my target results of about 0% while I wait for something meaningful to happen.

    ReplyDelete
  12. There are few left who are willing to short heavy for very long, just like few are willing to buy and hold. Too many shorties have been decapitated, they tend to short just like the rest trade on the long side - dash and dine, and get the heck out of dodge when they have a decent profit on a swing. The only significant downturns that occur are spurred on by algo sells, just like algo buys prop the upside. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Morla ....the only way to "trade" this fake market is what Joe is trying to tell you now......this is gap trading only..last year was your only chance to really buy and hold....Joes advice is get out unless you are prepared to lose.....this is NOT going to end well....

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hmm, kli. I thought we were still trading around our core of miners. -Nancy

    ReplyDelete
  15. I am nancy and I am not making money only tredding water in their 4month consolidation. I will continue to trade around a core and try and catch gaps......but its a chop shop......its designed to destroy us so stay away from over trading. Joe can trade the gaps and make the right tape read but that is not as easy as many think...requires more than luck ........lots of experience and Joes knowledge of how the game is played

    ReplyDelete
  16. Analyze good read on why TA is not as useful. I think you are right about the institutions and support/resistance levels.

    EW is failing for the very same reasons.

    Kli has given some good advice since he started this blog, his miner picks and holding a core of miners to trade around using the gaps and fills as entries and exits are good guides for gamblers, who are the only ones who should be playing in this casino.

    Real wealth will be protected by physical gold/silver backed up by lead.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Temo, you can notice in 2010 that (as Joe has stated), it is a gap trading/scalping/at most swing trading market. There have been days where I have just sidestepped, because especially on the chop days options are a waste of time, and a person goes stare-crazy watching positions dance all over hell's half acre. It is sometimes hard to get a good, solid move in one direction - the reason - lower timeframes have nervous day traders taking profits continually, running like mice from the vulchar algos. As I mentioned, big money coming in at significant levels is where really swing trades can be made. It is better to pick the right spots than just to trade sometimes. I like that line "gold/silver backed up by lead" lol. Have gun will trade. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Temo,

    Excellent post, folks if you are in this market because you NEED to make money and I emphasize NEED not WANT then stay away from the market. The money you trade with now should be the money you can afford to lose more than any period in the past markets otherwise STAY AWAY, ADJUST your life style and STOP trying to gamble to mAINTAIN your past life styles. If I NEEDED money to support my family I would not be in this market. To me market right now is a challenge, that's all. Kli is a doctor and makes a great living from his regular job so he can afford to gamble and lose some money in the worst case scenario.

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  19. Aye, I stopped "trading" back in August. Since then I've been simply balancing between GRZZX (holds actual shorts not swaps) and a mixed bag of miners.

    I realize that both sides can (and do sometimes) turn against me simultaneously but I don't see how that could be sustained short of cloning King Midas or a gold meteor laid by a giant space goose

    I will happily break even until something real takes place. I'm sure there's lots of money to be made but I can't trust a ponzi to fail or to succeed, even less the shorter the time horizon.

    Any position not hedged to the point of near-meaninglessness feels to me like sticking around during a tiger attack to run odds on who gets eaten next.

    Hell, I hardly even watch the market anymore I spend more time reading kli, jesse, and some others. The market's dead to me until it apologizes for trying to bore me to death.

    Sorry for rambling, walk in the light.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Yes morla tonight I am being asked these same questions at my job by some of my colleagues.....and the question of staying out of the market in WHAT keeps arising.....cash??? and if so where do you put it.....not all of us have enough gold to put in storage accounts and cash is really a frightening long term concept ....Joe?? or whoever wishes feel free to weigh in

    ReplyDelete
  21. kli,

    First of all the PUBLIC needs to get re-educated on the CONCEPT of need vs want. What most people in this country consider NEED is really WANT. Tell your colleagues to get rid of their DEBT first and foremost and then LIVE extremly modest regardless of how much money they have, later on that choice will not be a choice any more, mindsets need changing. Combination of physical Gold and cash is the best way to go now.
    Dollar is not going to CRASH any time soon therfore combo of Gold and cash is good till we are done with deflationary cycle which is going to last till 2014/2015, after that Gold holding should increase since Dollar would start real tanking. Europe is in deep trouble and Dollar will hold for a while due to the mess other fiat currencies are until our term comes.

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  22. If someone was to walk away from trading, another idea that is interesting as an "investment" is building out self-sustaining infrastructure, i.e. farmland, greenhouse, MREs, survival equipment, solar-powered housing etc. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  23. I forgot to mention can foods, due to QE and almost all central bankers printing like there is no tomorrow the price of essentials will remain high while at the same leverage assets like value of homes, salaries,,etc keeps getting deflated, so tell them to start storing can foods.

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  24. MRE's and Water are what I am accummulating. They will pay you dividends that you cannot imagine.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Actually don't take salt for granted, it is common place in the grocery store but very difficult to procure otherwise under harsh conditions. Water purifying tablets are good to have. Good canning skills are useful, there are good utube sites for that. Survival clothing and equipment, also for us non-medical people, survival medicine manuals. First aid kits are a must. Also firearms and a lot of ammunition. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Analyze,

    Firearms might protect you against some of the crazies and average criminals but not against pros or big brother.

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  27. Joe, we may enter times worse than the average person can imagine. Most people are already trapped by Big Brother anyway and just don't realize it. The attack is mental/spiritual rather than physical, although the physical element is certainly present as well. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Analyze,

    I understand but it's important for you and others who BELIEVE firearms is important to REALIZE and be under no-illusion that firearms not only won't protect them against serious power, it does even more harm. A highly trained black-ops can take you and your entire family with his bear hands using martial arts you have never witnessed, asnd if he decides to use actual weaponry then he has access to weapons you won't believe. Technology theses days allows them to even get rid of DNA with certain chemicals they use. If it's organized resistance outside of your home and numbers are heavy then tanks and air power will be called and it wipes evrything out.

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  29. Joe, understood - sometimes the best martial arts technique is the "sprint". Get out of there in other words rather than going up against things. Firearms for hunting only is the mantra to follow. Anyone expecting to take on Special Forces with a hunting rifle is delusional. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Analyze,

    My Macro-point which most of the public does not realize is that what NRA talks about is really about selling arms to public to MAKE HIGH PROFITs, no amount of firearm available to you is going to save you or your family if big brother OR pros target you. It's very important for every one to understand that and be under no-illusion. This country has the most lethal military and para-military force ever known in the history of man, and if ordered they will excecute it to perfection.

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  31. Total delusiona brainwashing to think that weapons are useful for anything other than self protection from the marauding hungry masses......

    ReplyDelete
  32. You're absolutely right Analyze, the best martial arts technique truly is the "sprint". You would need good shoes and a water filter LONG before you'd need a gun and by then it's either too late or you're shooting at large game far to the north of wherever you started.

    Having a gun is still abstractly important, hard economic times do lead to crime, and common bandits are not necessarily better armed or equipped than you are. Again you're better off using shoes or a car to get out of the city before/when/after it gets that bad.

    ReplyDelete
  33. The hope is that the internal battle within the military is eventually won by the constitutional element over the industry component...that is threatening to destroy fabric of this country....meanwhile we are here to try and survive the "market"

    ReplyDelete
  34. Morla, if it degraded that much, the only logical choice would be wilderness living. In the interim the fight we have is with the algo chop shop market, that's bad enough as it is. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  35. We had an ex-GS guy visit here after the 2008 crash, he was telling people to forget about their stock portfolio and to stock-up on canned-goods instead -- the audience laughed at him. He showed up again in fall 2009 saying "If you'd only bought stock" you could be retired now. -- no one was laughing. Classic isn't it?!?

    p.s. You survivalists better read-up on the shelf-life of canned foods and bottled water.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Alpo! As for the latest GS schill, roflmao! GS execs got no debt, plenty of gold, concealed guns and sanctuaries around the world but more importantly schmucks like you believing the lie.

    Joe and Temo pretty much hit the major points. I got play money and some 401k leftover crap to gamble with at the swing points if they get there, otherwise it's capital preservation along the lines of Joe for 90% of the rest. A sanctuary point is important either in your daily life or if the situation gets bad. The back woods of Montana and Wyoming are nice if you are already there, otherwise 30 feet above sea level in a smaller city, preferably next to a critical military base with a large government presence and connecting infrastructure. Guns are more for hunting game, looters and common street thugs, as Joe pointed out once you get above this level guns are more of a detriment to your safety. You are better off training to shoot a primitive bow and use a electric stun gun in total darkness. Understand the lies but more importantly stay safe by preparing and not putting a big ass target on your back.

    Likely consolidate and grind towards the 200 week moving average on the S&P with a small retracement chance to 1120 and 1080. If you can afford to lose short at around the 200 wma or take a chance a gap trading, if you cannot affrod to lose what's left get out of debt, prepare your sanctuary and if you have anything left get some physical gold and some cash.

    Most of the stocks mentioned here will work, avoid ETFs for any period longer than a couple days.

    ReplyDelete
  37. The few GS guys I know ALL have second/third homes far from the madding crowd. I guess the other question is where to put cash??? - Nancy

    ReplyDelete