Sunday, March 28, 2010

WANNA BET ME ? update I

Its not there. And when the "biggest ponzi of all" unravels it will be an explosion heard round the worrrrlllld. I love a great conspiracy. No....I did not say conspiracy theory.........CONSPIRACY. Is it true? SAY IT AINT SO JOE. Hehehehe...sorry couldn't help myself. Just more fodder for what the last two years have wrought for truth, justice and the American Way.

The last sentence of his statement is mind-blowing. He says the “physical” positions of the bullion banks are so huge that they are much bigger than the COMEX short position. He says the “physicals” are hedged on the OTC market in London! Did you get that? Let me walk you through it. The bullion banks are selling what is supposed to be vault gold but it is just a ledger entry if the customer never asks for delivery. They must balance their exposure with a ledger deposit entry. This has to be some paper promise of gold from a third party, or some derivative, or even some real gold bullion. If all the ledger entries balance out then the bullion bank has no net exposure in exactly the same way the futures market works with a short offsetting a long. A futures market can never default if no one asks for delivery as only paper contracts are traded. The loosely defined “physical” London market is an identical scheme. As long as everyone is prepared to buy and sell “ledger entries” for imaginary gold in the vault no one will ever discover the fraud.



The LBMA does, however, buy and sell some real physical metal as well. But we now know form Mr. Christian’s testimony that this is one one-hundredth the size of the paper gold trading. The LBMA states on its website that it trades 20 million ozs of gold each day on a net basis. We can calculate the net trade of REAL physical gold should be about 200,000 ozs each day; that is 6.25 tonnes per day or 1625 tonnes per year. This is very much in line with the size of total global mining output of approximately 2200 tonnes per year.



So the giant Ponzi trading of gold ledger entries can be sustained only if there is never a liquidity crisis in the REAL physical market. If someone asks for gold and there isn’t any the default would trigger the biggest “bank run” and default in history. This is, of course, why the Central Banks lease their gold or sell it outright to the bullion banks when they are squeezed by high demand for REAL physical gold that can not be met from their own stocks.



Almost every day we hear of a new financial fraud that has been exposed. The gold and silver market fraud is likely to be bigger than all of them. Investors in their droves, who have purchased gold in good faith in “unallocated accounts”, are going to demand delivery of their metal. They will then discover that there is only one ounce for every one hundred ounces claimed. They will find out they are “unsecured creditors”.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1269815740.php

(Reuters) - Gold hit its highest in more than a week on Monday as risk appetite increased, while silver and platinum group metals also rose sharply as economic optimism boosted demand for industrial commodities.

Palladium, which has had the best performance among precious metals year-to-date, was lifted by heavy buying as investors covered short positions after the price had dropped about $30 last week.

Dollar weakness against the euro amid easing concerns about Greece and better physical demand from India led to buying in gold and other precious metals, said Peter Buchanan, senior economist of CIBC World Markets.

"Stronger-than-expected economic data in China and Europe reduces risk aversion, helping the euro and gold and other commodities," he said.

Palladium, platinum and silver, widely used as industrial metals, rallied after a report said that China's annual economic growth will reach 12 percent this quarter following strong industrial output growth last month.

Spot gold was at $1,108.45 an ounce at 3:01 p.m. EDT, versus $1,105.10 late in New York on Friday. Earlier in the session, bullion reached a high of $1,114.45 an ounce, the loftiest level

U.S. April gold futures settled up $6 at $1,110.30 an ounce on the COMEX division of the NYMEX.

The euro strengthened as debt-stricken Greece sold seven-year bonds, and gold's safe-haven appeal also increased as investors remained anxious about the country's long-term fiscal health.

"The market thinks this Greek problem has been solved. We saw excellent physical demand last week and it's continuing," said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance.

Higher-than-expected gains in German inflation also suggested decent pick-up in growth in the euro zone.

"Gold is attracting money in its own right as a currency. Gold is still an alternative to currencies, which is helping to keep prices buoyant," said Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank

http://temo1051.blogspot.com/2010/03/charts-dollar-jag-and-xra.html

50 comments:

  1. kli,

    So what else is NEW, this issue does not apply to you since you already have bought and buried all the physical gold available in the state of missouri in your backyard. You and Red do not have to worry about COMEX, there is already shortage of physical bullion because you two vultures have cleaned most of them,heheee!

    Joe

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  2. Many think the price of gold and silver will skyrocket when this implodes but in reality, only the price of physical gold and silver will skyrocket. The price of these metals on the COMEX may collapse as people rush for the exits.

    -C

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  3. C,

    That's why kline does not have to worry at all, he owns all of the physical Gold in his home state, his greed knows no limit. In the state of missouri, he is simply known as gold finger.

    Joe

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  4. We will see. First they all have to demand the gold. Hopefully it happens before all the credit that is maintaining the price at 1200 dries up.

    And are we just finding out about how these guys are selling stuff without having the physical stuff?

    We will see what pans out first. I think gold should do well in times of crisis, believe me. But I would like to see how it behaves when credit dries up.

    Dny

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  5. Analyze,

    SWC keeps kicking butt,heheee!

    Joe

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  6. Joe, agreed. Ditto today with RIMM, behaving like a champion. - Analyze.

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  7. held small swc over weekend...nice profit

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  8. All,

    Are you folks making money? All of this Gold talk, economy talk and what might happen or does not happen is fine and dandy BUT at the end of the day when it comes to market money talks and bull crap walks. Focus on making money.

    Joe

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  9. Dny,

    Are you making money? Are you in the market? That's the bottom line. You and kli can argue till hell freezes over.

    Joe

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  10. Analyze,

    Auy had a nice turn for trade from 9.70.

    Joe

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  11. AUY and all miners showing very poor volume. the question if what are the big boyz doing in terms of accumulation for the next trade and as I have mentioned to joe I am not able to give you that info. Joe recommends playing the money flow trade and as of today it looks flat for the miners...SWC will still probably have the biggest intermediate term kick on a relative sector base but for the readers that are longer term investors PMs are still a solid bet.

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  12. CNAM's earning announcement is this Wednesday, depending on the result CNAM can make a violent move:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Armco-Metals-Announces-iw-3238600208.html?x=0&.v=1

    Joe

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  13. heheh,

    Hopefully CNAM makes a violent move down so I can add to a trading core. Same goes for gold, my token JAG core is not enough.

    As for the Prechter dreams of credit drying up around S&P 1200, for every public announcement of reigning in credit the Fed will turn the spigot up a notch on the slightest pullback, only $4+ gasoline will slowly get their attention. The stagflation reflation will continue until either official unemployment drops below 8% or gets above 15%, with latter more likely. Physical gold doesn't care when you have competitive currency devaluations.

    And SWC is a monster gapper

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  14. GFI EGO look bullish on the 5, 15, 34.....ANV looks bullish period....

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  15. Red,

    yes my favorite VULTURE, I know you are waiting for the blood,heheee!

    Joe

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  16. JAG appears to be trying to form bottom here ....so I guess we will find out soon

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  17. looking at the stochastics on JAG 1 year they look very tempting here Red .....you better keep your eyes on it tight...

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  18. VGZ I am accumulating again...

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  19. OK that does it I am turning short term bullish on miners.......go ahead and laugh........long term always been bullish..

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  20. Kli I am with you on being bullish on the miners. Picked up some JAG and XRA today off their lows.

    Dollar sees some light support at 81 and a bit more at 80.

    Still waiting for SLW under 15 and SSRI under 17.

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  21. Don't get bullish on RIMM. It started well in the first half....and then almost formed a gravestone doji on the daily - 2 days before earnings. That is called ridiculous. Several positions were like that today, gap and slow bleed, almost like the start of a trend change. We shall see. I am holding zero tonight. - Analyze.

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  22. I'm sitting on the sidelines. Don't like gold and am scare to go short right now.

    I made money on the way down and some on the way up from the March lows. Got out too soon and lost a bit on some of the down turns. But I am ready to go short on the right opportunity. Maybe it wont come for years, who knows. I just don't believe that the market can keep moving higher while the economic fundamentals look worst.

    I don't think Kli and I are totally on opposite camps, as I also like gold longer term as he does. Keep up the good work Kli.

    Dny

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  23. Okay, there is the explanation on Fast Money, AAPL CDMA network announcement - how surprising that everyone was bailing on RIMM today although this was not public knowledge until now. Any doubt there is a ponzi? - Analyze.

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  24. And AAPL had reached the top of its current trend and had to retrace unless it would gap up on news of this nature, which surprise surprise happened. And this was probably known by insiders last week since it is bearish for S, and that is why that one failed to break out. Corruption at its finest. Wish I was holding AAPL tonight. Glad I dumped RIMM today and S last week though. - Analyze.

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  25. Does anyone have a list of Illuminati affiliated companies? We should just trade those. AAPL, GS, JPM, LVS,... - Analyze.

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  26. good idea analyze ....i will try and see if we can add some more......

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  27. Analyze,

    You should have traded PCLN today,heheeee!

    Joe

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  28. 200 shares of PCLN at the close on Friday would have made you $1600 today.

    Joe

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  29. Joe, ABIO would have been a good one too, just a little 30.7% haircut on that one lol. - Analyze.

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  30. Analyze,

    If you shorted ABIO, you would have been one happy dude. The reason I brought up PCLN is because if you are trading AAPL which has the EPS of 10, then PCLN gives you better percentage gain since PCLN also has EPS of 10 but stock moves much better than AAPL, an OLD HYENA PAYS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.

    Joe

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  31. Joe, you're right, for all the hype about AAPL, it is not what one would call a momentum play, it is pretty rare for it to really move a lot. - Analyze.

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  32. Analyze,

    bingo, details like that is what seperates a good trader vs a great trader, always pay attention to details most do not.

    Joe

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  33. Joe, actually the miners move more on their average gap fill than many of the other "high flyers" move on their best day. - Analyze.

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  34. Red,

    In regard to CNAM make sure you are also aware of the SPECIALIST MM controlling the price of the stock and not just GS. Reason is CNAM trades in AMEX and specialist manipulates AMEX stocks even more.

    Joe

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  35. Analyze,

    That's correct BUT if one wants to trade high flyer tech stocks then the detail I mentioned becomes important since I am comparing apple with apple ( one big tech stock vs another).

    Joe

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  36. Joe, that is a good point, choices within a given sector are not necessarily what would first come to mind, the AAPL versus PCLN is a good example. - Analyze.

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  37. It was coming to my mind today about stocks having "personalities" when I was thinking about IBM at lunchtime. It reminds me of the movie Lord of the Rings, where two of the guys were in the woods, and some talking trees were deciding what to do after receiving all this information the guys gave them. They were wondering what was taking so long, and after awhile one of the trees came back and said, "We.......have.......decided.....that you.....are not......trees". I was just looking around on google and found out that A.J. Brown used the same reference about stocks having personalities in a set of indicators he used for trading. Even the type/demographic of people who are trading a stock make up its behavior outside of just the pure numbers. - Analyze.

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  38. AAPL update - small lots of 100, 200 shares drove it up 6 dollars after hours, someone cashed out 2700 shares with one second left to collect. Karma. - Analyze.

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  39. Any thoughts on us heading toward the end of the quarter and potential selling for tax payment purposes ahead of the April 15th filing deadline?

    Could we see a general market sell off due to these factors?

    -C

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  40. analyze take a look at AMT and give me your thots.....its a GS baby

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  41. Let me add to that..."the end of QE."

    -C

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  42. C, Cobra is big on seasonality and cycles, although I am not as big a fan of that, but he has last 3 days of March bearish, 1st day of April bullish off historical numbers, and pullbacks tend to occur up to 4/12. I assume tax payments factor into that, but looking back on the charts there are years where that was not the case. When you asked that I went over there, because I know he always tends to post those things, they do not work all the time, especially this year has not mapped well to historical norms. - Analyze.

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  43. Kli, AMT is fighting 45 which is near its previous high from 2 years ago, and the technical pattern has that as essentially the top for it in the current pattern with a stretch spike to 46, it is likely to go into a consolidation range. But it should go back to retest 45, and if it is a GS baby it WILL go back there. - Analyze.

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  44. Thanks for the quick reply.

    I guess one has to look at the market performance from the prior year to assess whether there's a justification for tax selling. Based on last year's stock market performance, one might assume that there are more taxes to be paid this year while a poor year should result in much less in the way of tax payments. I assume he looks at that as well. Thanks again.

    -C

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  45. And they said you can never go back......well I guess they didn't mean GS babies

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  46. Kli, I looked at that rather quickly, second look it has the potential to go to 49 as a new high not 46. But I would still default to it struggling again at 45 first and not a direct path to 49. - Analyze.

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  47. They didn't mean Arnold either...I'll be back. On that note I need to not be back tonight, getting tired. - Analyze.

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  48. good nite analyze.......

    Chag sameach all

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  49. C,

    If market goes thru correction the first two weeks of April due to tax selling from last yr, my guess is in line with walayat which is lowest you might see DOW is retracement to 10500 and then from there it will go to 12000. Would I bet on it, NO but it would be nice to see DOW retracement to that level in April. Trade what market gives you.

    Joe

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  50. No Joe, been just holding GRZZX and miners so I'm a tad down for the year. If I start actually trading I'll let you know how I'm doing.

    To fans of ponzi news here's

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ireland-stunned-uncover-truly-shocking-information-its-banks-institutes-austerity

    Apparently Ireland decided to look under it's rug, and even tell the world what it found under there.

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