Saturday, April 10, 2010


David Knox Barker is one of the leading authorities on the economic long wave, otherwise known as the Kondratieff Wave (a.k.a. “K Wave”). Barker has had an impressive career both as a financial market writer and long wave analyst, as well as being an entrepreneur in the field of emerging nanotechnology. Back in the late 1980s and ‘90s, Barker was known for his insightful and accurate views on the U.S. economy and financial markets via his “K Wave Report” newsletter.

Barker first emerged on the financial market scene in June 1987 with the publication of his first book, Jubilee on Wall Street: An Optimistic Look at the Coming Financial Crash. The book made quite a stir among investors as it was released a few months before the spectacular crash on Wall Street. It accurately predicted a number of financial market and economic trends for the U.S. and global economies and was followed up by a second edition, entitled, “The K Wave” [Irwin Publishing, 1995]. This particular volume has long been a staple of my financial library and I’ve made frequent reference to it over the years to broaden my understanding of the economic long wave.

Barker took a long hiatus from the financial markets after 1999 to concentrate his attention on his company, ALP Life Sciences, a life sciences and research company that is currently working on a revolutionary application of nanobiotechnology known as the Nanoveson™ project. Last year, Barker took time out to revise the book and publish a third edition entitled, Jubilee on Wall Street: An Optimistic Look at the Global Financial Crash.

They say the “third time is the charm” and this saying definitely applies to the latest edition of Barker’s book. The third edition of Jubilee on Wall Street is, in my opinion, an instant classic that should be read by anyone interested in the outcome of the global financial crisis. As an aside, the latest edition contains a forward by the famous evangelist Billy Graham (Barker is married to Mr. Graham’s eldest granddaughter).

Barker recently discussed the book with me and shared his thoughts on what he sees ahead for the United States and the emerging markets. What follows is the transcript of that interview

update I from old skf pal

Germany Said to Accept EU Loan Compromise for Greece (Update1)
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By John Fraher and Brian Parkin

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Germany is prepared to give Greece loans at below-market interest rates, dropping its opposition to subsidies as European finance ministers meet to discuss the terms of a lifeline for the debt-stricken nation, a European government official said.

The loans would be priced above the rate charged by the International Monetary Fund, which would also participate in a European Union-led rescue, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Such an arrangement would satisfy German demands that Greece shouldn’t be given subsidized loans, the person said. Greece may receive loans for between 20 billion euros ($27 billion) and 25 billion euros at a rate of about 5 percent, Die Welt reported today, without citing anyone


  1. Hello all,

    I may be telling old news, but if you have not seen the movie "IOUSA", you should.

    I think I read a link in a recent post about the government accountant who explains how the current American lifestyle is unsustainable. He is in the movie, as well as others.

    Thanks Kli, Red, and others for carrying the torch. I read every day, but have nothing particularly useful to say as I am out of my league here.


  2. no your not wilks and please comment more........its so good to hear from you man....we will all be lucky to survive this and please kick in an say hi were one of the warriors that will always be in my thoughts.

  3. Wilks thanks for the link, I had not seen this yet.

  4. Good to hear from you Wilks, the best we can hope for is preparing ourselves with the help of friends and family for what is coming up over the next 5 years.

  5. Wilks, please post occasionally. I have to admit I find it hard at times to post here since I am purely technical, and probably irritate Kli with my off topic posts that I just smash into the middle of a string of conversations. I try to post something trading related or T/A related once I see a string die out, but it is hard to judge where to fit things in. I have backed away recently since my T/A is not much use once the premise and target is set. I have some things that I want to post over the next couple months about options trading, but I need to guage appetite for it, especially since I am only a guest contributor that was approved by Kli in December when he asked me to continue to post in 2010. Good group of people here though, and like Immred said, our objective is simply to make people money that they can convert some percentage over into physical gold for the upcoming challenges all of us face. - Analyze.

  6. The phrase, "I still love you" from this link, had a haunting return in 1991 5 years later when it was spoken in the final classic, "These are the days of our lives". The scourge of AIDS that arrived in the mid-80's, which some believe was intentionally forced on a certain demographic, thru vaccinations in New York for hepatitis, is nothing compared to the future challenges we face. There is nothing funny about suffering, pain, pretending all is fine while yet under a death sentence. Count your blessings if you can see, walk, get around without feeling pain, and can eat what you want and digest it. Many suffer in silence and look out of hospital windows wishing for just being pain free.

  7. Analyze your T/A is NOT posted enough...and for those of us that are trading is always appreciated.......

  8. Analyze,

    ditto Kli

  9. Here is something that may be of interest as a perspective on trading:

    From Analyze - Trading to position profiles:
    Occasionally you will hear, “trade to the stocks you know”, “just use price action”, “and keep riding the same horses”. What this means, is develop an understanding of the typical behavior of a given position. Often this is dictated by the MM who controls intraday behavior to screw retail, especially on the short term front month options side where the gamblers live ATM. Open interest may not equate to smart money.
    Here are a few things that you can research in various timeframes for any position you trade (and the list can be far longer than these examples):

    Does it appear sensitive to the market for typical action or more to only its sector?
    What volume level is enough to show a breakout historically?
    When it ramps, does it ride to just the limit of the BB, or does it pierce it and then draw down? That influences whether you chase a gap when it is trending.
    For typical chart patterns, does it obey them, or use them as fakes so that short covering is the momentum driver?
    When has it gone too far to be only retracing and instead reversing based on its historical norms for retrace patterns?
    If you trade to lower timeframes, where do larger players (current market more likely algos than a human….) jump in since they are looking at longer timeframes?
    Where did you get shaken out before and what turned out to be the reason? Maybe trading to a 5 minute chart, but the daily would have kept you in had you not been absorbed in the other timeframe, while losing sight of the bigger picture?

    Be creative and maintain a list that you grow over time as you notice things that occur on charts, history repeats itself, be very observant and use it to advantage, every position is unique, just like the MM behind the action.

    Many vendors offer trading platforms with baked-in indicators, often a minor hybrid of the typical ones, preying upon greed and laziness to generate sales revenue. Usually coaching is also offered since the system’s failures need to be explained away. These systems will often fail, as false signals, lags on indicators, the individual unique behavior of the position you trade, and a plethora of other factors override such methods. Looking at static charts after the fact and selecting the indicators in hindsight, these systems seem to work. Try them on the fly – not effective. With practice, you will find that you do not need to run many indicators. Some are good, too many is not. Do you need to run ADX to convince yourself a trend exists? How about a trend change obvious from price action and you get a highly informative cross on MACD just to prove it? Learn what price action looks like for key indicators so that you are not directly reliant on them, try turning a few off, and then trade to the unique behavior of the position while free from the other details.

  10. Good post and this works to play the same stock both long and short. Like all ponzis it works until it doesnt so watching several stocks in different sectors can keep you in the game.

  11. Spot gold's open and it's looking nice too. Let the core ride indeed!

  12. Ponzi has to get the brakes on this chit fast or they will run gold to 1300. I'm patient and not really that interested in what their next manipulation is.

  13. Trading volumes are extremely low. My work puts me on trading desks all across the street daily and traders are doing small percentages of the volume that they have done historically. The major mutual funds are cash low, as many started buying in around May as it was apparent that the market was moving without them. Most stopped buying about 2 months ago as the cash dried up. My algo based and dark pool clients are also complaining about low volume.
    If you look at the gains in the market since last March, the vast majority (something like 90%) have occurred overnight in the futures market. what's scary about that is that it takes a relatively small (comparatively) amount of money to push the entire market up using futures. Also, if you look at the volume on down days, we are getting 10x normal volume on down days vs low on up days.
    I have been tracking open interest on options contracts for the SPX names and am seeing a very sharp increase in protection buying, which leads me to believe that we are moving closer to an end game. I have not seen this increase in protection buying working it's way into the VIX or volatility pricing on tickers like SPY though, which makes no sense unless people are hedging off balance sheet or OTC using CDS.

  14. Interesting read...Bill Bonner...I read him everyday...thought all might find this one interesting..TexasBlondie