Thursday, April 8, 2010

ITS ALL GREEK TO ME update I

We've gotta trot out the Greek mess to bring the market down a couple of notches. Not that Greece isn't a monstrous disaster but it is known and gives the ponzi no pause in the intermediate term. I will be watching closely for weakness in the miners to trade on but son't forget to watch CNAM ALU S here.

(Reuters) - Stock index futures fell on Thursday, following global stocks lower, as persistent fears over Greece's public finances unsettled investors worried about sovereign debt defaults in Europe.

Markets pounded Greek bonds and banking stocks, driving the country's borrowing costs to new highs and pushing it closer to tapping a last-resort safety net.

U.S. financial shares weakened in premarket trade, with Citigroup Inc (C.N) down 1 percent to $4.32 and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) off 0.5 percent to $18.53. The Select Sector SPDR Financial ETF (XLF.P) fell 0.3 percent.

"Greece is the word that just seems never to go away," said Kim Caughey, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. "What is the EU going to do, and structurally how are they going to address this? I think that's the big question because we have Spain, Portugal looming out there as well."

S&P 500 futures fell 3.8 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures dropped 42 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 4 points.

U.S. equities pulled backed Wednesday after hitting levels not seen in a year and half. The Dow industrials fell back from the psychologically important 11,000 level, with some analysts saying investors are taking profit with no catalyst to drive the market higher.

Data on weekly initial claims for jobless benefits is due before the bell, an important indicator on the state of the economy as optimism grows about the strength of the labor market. Economists in a Reuters poll expect that new claims fell by 4,000 last week.

A nascent pickup in consumer spending has expanded beyond discounters to other retailers, according to early reports on March sales. Limited Brands Inc (LTD.N) reported same-store sales jumped 15 percent, sending the stock up 1.2 percent to $26 in premarket trade.

Daily update I

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-retreats-as-commodities-pull-back-2010-04-08?siteid=yhoof

61 comments:

  1. playin sol swc slw today.....

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  2. So far it's going according to walayat's prediction. Kli you forgot about LCC, oil down, GS squeezed the shorts, this market is too predictable,heheeeee!

    Joe

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  3. love the gap in MPG, hyena never misses a good meal!

    Joe

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  4. Joe I was watching MPG and at 3.75 I saw volume went up, I should have known it was you picking it up. I have never seen any one better, fuck man you are the best.-Jim

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  5. kli joe I am in auy, swc, Iam wanting to buy cnam what do think. Woodcarver

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  6. careful jim.....joe hyena is poopin out shares of mpg in chunks here

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  7. kli/ joe I am in auy and swc, also what do think of cnam Thanks woodcarver

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  8. Kli thanks Woodcarver

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  9. kli that man is a fucking machine.-Jim

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  10. GM all. Joe, forgot to tell you that I bought some ANDS last fall after we discussed it, it has had a good run in the last month. - Nancy

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  11. woodcarver,

    We talked about CNAM, remember? 20MA is around 8.18, so far couple of times it tested and bounces from low 8s, if the low 8 line holds then CNAM has bottomed there, if not then look for 7.25 and the lowest which is 50ma of 6. There is a gap at 5.31 which has not been filled yet and it might not any time soon.

    Joe

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  12. Jim,

    Dumped half of my shares I bought this morning in MPG and holding the rest now and will dump it later today. As you know I play with lot of shares and therfore 0.30 to 0.50 gap is a meaty meal for me.

    Joe

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  13. nancy,

    Way to go lady, make money.

    Joe

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  14. trying to make gold tempting here turning green....over 1152 now.....watta game....wanna guess the close....hmmmmmmmm

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  15. bcbk, margie, and carol

    Are you around? Are you making money?

    Joe

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  16. It makes me happy to see nancy and Jim doing well, hope the rest of you also do well.

    Joe

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  17. Joe - thanks for asking... got some CNAM so far, waiting for SOL... I'm still learning to trade the gaps, not confident enough to pounce yet, so missed out lot yesterday... saw MPG this morning and froze!!!

    so happy to hear you're making lots of money, but that's no news really!!! lol... I promise to make you proud one day! BTW, do you still see a trade for S?

    bcbk

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  18. bcbk,

    You do not need to trade gaps if you have not done it before, the reason I do gap trading this yr is because I play with lot of shares. For you and others swing trading will work. Jim and nancy have done very well buy and hold specific stocks for period of 2 to 6 months as well. The past 3 trading sessions I have been locking on MPG and LCC. Have all the stocks mentioned here in your streamer daily and you will see the volume pick ups and entries.

    Joe

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  19. by the way bcbk CNAM is not a gap trading stock since float and outstanding shares are low and moves are violent with little shares and also AMEX specialist is in complete control of CNAM, swing trade CNAM. That's what I do with this one.

    Joe

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  20. bcbk,

    The S lately is behaving between 3.75 and 3.95 and it's trading within that channel, volume is beautiful and no problem. If you are not trading with lot of shares then S lately is not making you much money. It needs to get out of the current channel to provide a better swing for you.

    Joe

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  21. I guess I was scared of holding on to shares because I did that with shorts and lost a lot last year... got some longs and got out too early because I wasn't sure of the market directions but I'm beginning to grasp the concept of understanding the MMs and Feds... thanks Joe... bcbk

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  22. Joe,

    Thanks for inquiring about me. What are your thoughts on DTO? What stocks, besides SOL, do you recommend for longer term hold.

    Carol

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  23. bcbk,

    Last yr I mentioned clearly that it was no time to short, it was the yr of buy and hold long. Jim pounced on SGY at 3 and CENX at 2 after he saw me bringing it up to kline and held. Nancy also listened to me and did well.

    Joe

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  24. Carol,

    DTO is for experienced traders until oil hits the top which has not yet. As long as overall market has not hit the TOP, SWC still is my favorite stock of the yr which I mentioned the beginning of January. Overall this yr you can do very well if you swing trade.

    Joe

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  25. I know Joe, was a big lesson for me... I guess I think too much about fundamentals... still can't understand how the market can keep going up with all the things we are facing, but I guess the market is a different beast... bcbk

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  26. bcbk,

    This market is completely controled by FED money and managed by GS. This is not mom and pop market. It was the print money poured by central bank into the market which created the bull market you saw after March 9th of 2009.

    Joe

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  27. also besides FED, chinese,indians, russians, rich arabs, and brazilians bought the market heavy after March 09 especially the commodities.

    Joe

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  28. so now that the Fed no longer buys mbs, what do you think about the future of the market? or are they still gonna pump it via a different route? i kept thinking if they want to sell bonds, don't they have to tank it, at least temporarily? bcbk

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  29. bcbk,

    Stock market's direction in the macro level has always been determined by central bankers decision, the entire concept of boom and bust engineered by them, everything else is just hot air. These days more than ever it's the case. Central bankers hate DEFLATION but this whole economic concept of keynsian which is printing and devaluating currency in order to keep control has caused them the point of no return, FED right now has to watch for stagflation not get out of hand, in the economy with leverage assets like housing and job deflating and cost of essentials going up and on top of it the talk about VAT tax is going to create all kinds of mess for them, my educated guess is by end of 2011 they will find out all the print money not only brought the consumer spending back to previous levels but also combo of higher unemployment along with higher cost of overall living will crash it and create a real necessary flush between 2012 and 2014. Right now FED is trying to take money out of the system slowly to manage and stop a otherwise run away stagflation.
    They will do their best to hold the market within range to still keep the illusion of real recovery which does not exist since with all the debt and lack of manufacturing, you just can not rely on GDP runningt 70% on consumer spending.

    Joe

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  30. I meant all the print money not only DID NOT bring the consumer spending back to previous highs.

    Joe

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  31. Borrow and spend mentality will fail but it will also send the traders who have been thinking the time for collapse is NOW to the poor house. Do not mistake any corrections we get this yr to the idea of real collapse this yr. FED can stretch things beyond trader's capability to stay solvent.

    Joe

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  32. Picked up a small position for grins of CNAM, noticed quite a large bid ask spread going on there, still in the hands of the specialist who will exploit the range. General market downturns are getting to be of shorter duration, blink and you will miss it.

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  33. Joe - thanks for sharing your thoughts, really appreciate it... unfortunately, and I agree, that it's going to be a big mess in the next couple of years, like you've said all along...

    I was watching to see if I can get a good entry for SOL, and just saw a big dump, was that you? lol... I'm still hoping to see S&P down to 1150's soon... bcbk

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  34. Slightly OT - where do you all store your physical gold? To keep an anecdote short, I have an aunt that would probably pass for Joe with a wig. She's bought a farm, and lives like a redneck, and unbeknownst to us she has been stockpiling gold and silver for the last decade or so. Recently, she was the target of a professional burglary because she was the only one who knew about the metals she had, and had it stored somewhere which she still won't reveal. She didn't tell anyone how much either so I have to imagine it was a sizeable amount.

    thanks - fab

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  35. Fab,

    Is your aunt 6'5 and 250 lbs, blonde hair & blue eyed, since you mentioned she can pass for me?

    Joe

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  36. take a look at S oooooboy...breakout 6 is next target

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  37. Joe-

    Close - around 6ft and on the over side of 250. I'm afraid to mess with her.

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  38. Fab,

    If she excercises 7 days a week, martial arts master and low body fat then you got your comparison. There is one minor detail left out, the Joe I know has a system in his house that will trap and punish any intruder no matter how pro they are, regardless of whether he is home or not.

    Joe

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  39. So is it better to store physical in one's home, or are there secure, trustworthy options for the average person like myself who has enough coins to be worried about theft?

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  40. fab,

    That's one way to do it, there are other options like storing it in swiss banks. Storing Gold at one's home can be safe especially in the case of your aunt who lives in the farm and can store it outside and underground, it's called burial.

    Joe

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  41. Store it inside a cereal box or some other container that is nondescript. No one would ever look for PMs in a cereal box and gold eagles go great with milk.

    -C

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  42. C the problem with that is fire can destroy it.....you must have a fireproof box.

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  43. C,

    I disagree, pros look inside cereal box.

    Joe

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  44. CNAM daily bollinger bands tightening, mid 8.50 low 7.25 hi 9.75. Completed a full position at close, which means they will probably take it down to 7.25.

    As for physical gold, Swiss Banks definitely if you can get there, local safety deposit box as long as economy is stable, very difficult to hide at home or buried unless you encase in both another metal like iron, aluminum or copper to throw off the metal detectors and fireproof it - Half eaten cans of Alpo.

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  45. Red,

    What ever you do, do not put your Gold in safety deposit box, that's the first place uncle will look.

    Joe

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  46. Immred - thanks for mentioning CNAM a while back... I picked up some today as well, trying to swing trade it...

    Hi Kli - thanks for the alert on S today, I'll keep an eye on it... bcbk

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  47. bcbk,

    Just be careful on CNAM, everybody and their Uncle knows the range for the CNAM swing trade, so MM's will butcher it unmercifully independent of the market until the bands tighten further and they let it loose one way or the other.

    Joe,

    Safety deposit bad especially if you die or get really sick or government declares an emergency or investigates you like they will in 1.5 to 3.5 years , but only choice for most people if they can't find a good local place to hide. If "fab" hide anything at home, first Google it up on the internet "hiding gold metal detector" and try not to do the exact same thing. A way to remember where you put it just in case you become incapacitated. A friend found a stash of gold coins as a kid buried in the ground and forgotten about, same story of hidden in the house until the owner died and remodeled. Or the pristine stash of Greek and Roman coins in clay jars recently dug up and sold on Ebay.

    Gets back to getting out of debt and having a fully paid off place to stay or squat when things start getting worse.

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  48. Joe I read your post on CNAM. I now a position will add more if it goes down. thanks Woodcarver

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  49. bcbk,

    If CNAM was a NASDAQ stock, it would be trading some where between $15 and $20, how ever since it's an AMEX stock with low float, it's completely controlled by the specialist and very manipulative, if it started to go down do not panic and leave enough gap to average down.

    Joe

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  50. Immred - CNAM double top on 4/1, so I think they will bring the price down, perhaps to 7ish like you said or even lower... the good thing is the daily range is pretty wide, so i hope to get out tomorrow with a bit of profit... thanks for the warning, I appreciate it very much... bcbk

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  51. Joe - I wrote back to Immred before I saw your post... yes, I will keep the shares if I can't sell with a profit, do have room to add more... bcbk

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  52. Red,

    That's exactly why I mentioned not to store the gold in the safety deposit box, as economy gets worse and reality hits in and especially during social unrests uncle will look at safety deposit boxes to see if public have Gold there or not. For fab's aunt who lives in the farm and especially if she has good size land , burial of Gold within a box underground is still very safe.

    Joe

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  53. Joe, problem is that if they declare the ownership of gold illegal (as they did the in 1930s, and as is likely when things get real nasty), people should be very careful not to think of the gold as an easily accessible set of funds ... people may have to keep it burried for 5+years to avoid prosecution ---- wolf

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  54. A couple new targets of interest: GLD 121.9, SWC 18.85, EGO 16.26, SLW 19.91, ANV 20.45, CNAM 16.84 if the technicals hold up. Those are all swing trade targets, not immediate targets. - Analyze.

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  55. One note, careful on CNAM, lower targets are possible immediately for that one, I have seen that technical profile intraday too many times and breakdown is the usual occurrence. - Analyze.

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  56. Good numbers analyze........also on CNAM if you are swing trading and holding here .....you don't have to puke um up.......

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  57. Check out my pal GORO, he's in a great mood lately. Also spot gold is trying to break Joe's 1150 resistance as I type, could be fun.

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  58. Oh, my apologies looking at Thursday's chart it looks like we're now seeing if 1150 will hold as support.. So this here is either liftoff or a fake-out and gold gets hammered back under in the AM? Or maybe that too is a fakeout for a gold-positive Greece development over the weekend?

    Oh well, glad I don't intend to make any trades.

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  59. And also perhaps I am being too gold optimistic considering this interesting tidbit:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/04/intra-day-pattern-in-gold-trading.html

    2am EST, capital time for the price of gold apparently. 10:00am not so much.

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