Friday, April 23, 2010

LIKE A BEATLE ON ITS BACK update IV

The current news cycle mimicks nature. Every morning recently it reminds me of when I was a child fascinated by watching a beatle on its back furiously struggling to right itself but to no avail. Funny how things repeat. This morning the talking heads are trotting out the "experts" one after another to explain the "Greek Debt" situation. Of course this is only the test case to resolve, and they can't even put a cork in this leak. Will they resolve it? Yes. Of course. At least that will be the gruel for the masses.

The actual solution is a little more complex than that. It always is.

In this case whatever "solution" has to be applied in a very rapid succession to at least 5 other critically bleeding patients in the Eurozone. If only Greece were really the problem. But as a test case, it must struggle on its back until the "solution" is determined.

The medicine for this will be chosen very carefully. It is very similar to an oncologist choosing the correct chemotherapy for a critically ill cancer patient. The patient just could (and frequently does) die from the treatment way before the cancer would have killed them. Not to mention in this case whoever winds up giving this patient its life giving treatment may die. ie the rest of the eurozone.

You know how I feel about investments here. Its a precarious high wire act over a pool of hungry sharks. So if I sound like a gold bug now days...so be it. I guess Jesse and others have seen the light too. Its obvious. gl gang happy trading.

Truth is the most valuable thing we have. Let us economize it.
Mark Twain

update I.... its unraveling before your eyes...could be a nice leg up here. The market believes that Greece will be forced to restructure its debt," says Simon Derrick at Bank of New York Mellon in London, and "The logic of such a situation for [Greek bond] investors is also simple enough:

"There is no last mover advantage in such a circumstance.

"We also note outflows just starting to build from Portuguese debt in recent days," Derrick is quoted by the FT's Alpha blog, "although they are still relatively modest."

Precious-metals analyst Walter de Wet at Standard Bank also notes fears of Euro-debt contagion today, writing "We doubt [the Greek rescue] would be enough to lift concerns over sovereign debt levels in certain European countries."

Even though the physical market is currently "quiet and directionless", de Wet reports, "Underlying uncertainty should continue to support gold."

update II 0950... PMs breaking out.....oooooboy. may be right.

update III 1103.....Kitco. Comex gold futures have pushed higher in morning trading Friday, hitting a fresh high for the week and are poised to produce a technically bullish weekly high close Friday. June gold last traded up $12.10 an ounce at $1,155.00. The U.S. dollar index has dropped below unchanged price levels and is trading near the session low. Meantime, crude oil futures prices have moved above unchanged and are trading near the session high. That is prompting buying interest in gold futures. Once again, traders are viewing any dips in gold prices as a bargain-hunting buying opportunity.

update IV April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose the most in two weeks after the dollar halted a six-session rally against the euro, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

The euro rebounded from the lowest level in almost a year after Greece asked for a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, easing concern that mounting debt will erode the value of the 16-nation currency. Gold rose 24 percent in 2009 as the dollar fell 2.5 percent against the euro.

“Gold is inextricably connected to the currency story,” said Kevin Davitt, a senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “Gold is firming because the dollar is off its highs, and the euro has rebounded from its lows.”

Gold futures for delivery in June rose $10.80, or 0.9 percent, to $1,153.70 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since April 7. The metal climbed 1.5 percent this week.

Greece asked the EU and IMF to activate a loan of 45 billion euros ($60 billion). Gold priced in euros rose to a record today on lingering debt concerns.

“The ink is just drying on the aid package for Greece, and the euro story hasn’t run its course,” Davitt said. “You can make an argument either way for gold” as a haven against the euro or an alternative investment to the dollar, he said.

31 comments:

  1. I'm sure no one is surprised at this...our ever vigilant SEC watchdogs "hard" at work. ;-)

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/federal-eye/2010/04/eye_opener_porn_and_federal_wo.html

    Look at the punishments to boot. Comments are funny...

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  2. Just another day at the office. hehehe

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. SEC caught surfing porn a few days after the GS charges. This is turning in to a comedy. A very well scripted comedy, perhaps next week, the SEC will announce that they found used condoms in the GS men's room. :)
    Thanks to this blog, I'm starting to see the light. It's all a big show.

    As KLI used to say.... whatta game.

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  5. Its a ponzi...hehehe. But this reversal in gold today is confirmatory that Greece and the unravelling of the currency issue is starting to tell. Hope you built your core up again....hehehe

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  6. All I'm asking for is a 10% correction... that wouldn't be too much to ask, would it??? this market is so crazy, don't know about you guys but I'm so dizzy seeing it going up down, up down in full speed... at this rate we will go to Dow 100,000... ok, sarcasm off...

    btw, how many ways can we play the Greece game??? I'm getting bored, need a new game...

    Homer - thx for the news on Bristol last night... can't tell the impact on ANDS, waiting to see how it plays out...

    Red - I'm a very patient person but I can't wait for the other side of S&P 200 week moving average, right now I'll be very happy to see the other side of S&P 200 day moving average... lol...

    bcbk

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  7. Nice move on SWC but PAL is flat.

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  8. Temo - i notice that too, and look at the palladium price fluctuation everyday, worst than gold...

    bcbk

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  9. Monthly Stock Market Trends – April 2010

    http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2010/0413.html

    "The four-year weekly S&P 500 trend chart shows that the market continues to rise, having broken through resistance of the multi-year down trend. The next resistance level is the 1,240 area or the 200-week moving average."

    "I am expecting the market to trade in a range for 2010 with the highs in the 1,250 area and lows in the 900 level."

    Hope this author is correct, we'll see...
    bcbk

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  10. no 900s this year unless Swan.

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  11. Swan...???

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dk-matai/risk-of-katla-could-a-2nd_b_541755.html

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  12. Katla-Swan, Swan-Katla... does have a nice ring to it... would make a nice hyphenated last name too... hehehe...

    bcbk

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  13. Hi bcbk, a 10% correction? I can't tell you how much we missed out on waiting for that. Having said that we scaled back on the core a few days ago...or maybe its that our core was smaller than I thought but now its just right.

    FYI - trying to get a discussion on the yahoo boards on ANDS...

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=te&bn=23554&tid=13477&mid=13477&tof=2&frt=2#13477

    I'll post back if anything interesting is referenced. Need my wife to step up and take a look but she's too busy as well...

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  14. Homer - I know it's a lost battle I suppose, waiting for a pull back, but I think we'll get it... I think/hope we are gently rolling down beginning this summer, and perhaps a drop next year... but I'm no voice of authority... Joe made me check, I'm definitely not a member of the elites... lol...

    re: ANDS, thx for info...

    bcbk

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  15. I sold my SWC to early but made some profit, still have AUY, PAL . PAL is flat may be able to sell then next week. Kli will try to buy SWC on Monday. What do think about buying more on CNAM at this price Joe? Thanks Kli and Joe. Woodcarver

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  16. This SWC monthly closes chart (since 1995) was posted by Hiker on Blue Chip Bull Dog:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/smilinghiker/folders/Jing/media/94a99b4a-c49b-4197-a7f2-08eef05097b9

    bcbk

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  17. Woodcarver,

    The 1.5M shares private placement at 6.5 will be closed on Monday, there is another issue and that's the options CEO of CNAM got at $5 unregistered and not sure whether he is going to dump those or doing it at current price of 6.25 or not, the price is getting there.

    Joe

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  18. Joe Thanks for the read on CNAM . Woodcarver

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  19. Re: ANDS. Someone responded on yahoo. I'm asking the better half to look at it.

    Comment was...
    "Even with the full BMS spin, you can see the Reuters piece is misleading hype.

    http://www.bms.com/research/investigational/hepatitis/Pages/BMS790052_easl.aspx

    One serious AE and two grade 3-4 AEs in a patient group of 12 that resulted in 2 discontinuations due to AEs. Watda joke."

    I forgot how funny the boards can be sometimes...someone commented the Bristol announce would be good for ANDS because when one Pharma goes up the rest follow...wow

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  20. When was the last time Madoff's fund had a 10% correction? If I see a 10% drop, I'll be suspicious that it has friends on the way.

    Joe, you still see 1150 as important for spot gold? We're back up here again, AUY is loving it, if we can just escape orbit this time..

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  21. Auy. Seems like it has a lot of room to run. They announce earnings May 4 or 5. Will keep loading on pullbacks.

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  22. I have traded AUY around my core and its a miserable laggard ....my guess is the big boys love its volume and are accumulating for the next leg up (whenever that may be)....go with slw ssri for more pop in the longer run

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  23. SSRI is definitely the most attractive of te silver stocks.. I'll let AUY ride for this particular move but if PMs are mashed back down I'll look at re-balancing into some SSRI. SLW trades near 2007 highs so that one worries me a bit here.

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  24. SLW and SSRI at some point will explode ....just hope I haven't overtraded when they do.

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  25. re:ANDS (last one I promise). We're checking around. I think you can ignore the whata joke comment. Would be if the study group for Bristol was 12, looks like it was 48. When we get some more info, I'll post it.

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  26. Homer,

    The main test for ANDS is end of may which should show the 12 week clinical trial, between now and then the stock would be volatile. Their earning announcement is April 27th after market close and with pharm stocks at this level ( small caps) that should not be an issue since they are not making money at this level any way. From technical perspective today was the last day for 52 week high of 6.50, starting Monday 52 week high is around 3.50.

    Joe

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  27. From Analyze: Short T/A post, I believe the date was 4/7 when I gave targets on some miners, and right afterward most entered consolidation patterns to see whether people are really trend trading them. I'll give the target I had and a comment on viability:

    SWC 18.85 - best performer of the picks. Not having continuation of today's move starting next week would be concerning given the profile, since that might lead to a smack-down, so watch that one.
    GLD 121.9 - flag breakout today. Target is still viable but this is the most ponzi-manipulated of the picks. Recent flag may have appeared as a broadening pattern but it is not given underlying technicals.
    EGO 16.26 - due to ramp right here, similar pattern to GLD, should have continuation of the breakout.
    SLW 19.91 - Breakout today, looking good.
    CNAM 16.84 - Other posts Immred and I have made laid the course out for this of going lower despite that long term target. Nothing here says buy to me yet; however, it does have the possibility of putting in a basing pattern here, watch this one for reversal but you need the volume confirmation. Patience is key.

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  28. Analyze,
    what about ssri?! !

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  29. What exactly do you want from me CBS? Generic post like the previous comments for general trend traders, where I did not even bother to give time and entry projections, or do you want me to bear down and hit this like I'm capable of doing? I will not put it out unless you have a reason i.e. you have huge money out, if so I will give you my specific analysis, otherwise you get the generic form. - Analyze.

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  30. No opinions expressed, either present, historical, or future as posted within this forum constitutes trading advice. All participants of this forum are solely responsible for the results of their trading.

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  31. CSB, 21.45 max SSRI target, but I like it less than the others, it is a laggard to other positions that have the same pattern that are already initiating breakouts, so toggle back to this one if the others ramp for the majority of their moves. - Analyze. Sorry about the earlier post, I am being harrassed in another forum and it translated over to this one, this has been one long f-ing long week to say the least. My trading week is very good, other people need hand holding, that gets tiring. The analysis is right though.

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