Wednesday, April 28, 2010

PLAY IT AGAIN SAM update II

Look for the ramp job to continue in spite of the kabuki theater. The masses were thrown their red meat and the senators all went home and guzzled Budweiser, ate caviar, and watched American idol...they had done their duty and it was time to self-indulge. After all, thats why they had taken that thankless job. You know....to help bring a better way of life.......to themselves of course. That little bit of untidy business was over and now they could get back to the real work of the Senate...preventing some of the rathscallions in the house of representatives from having a voice in real reform of a broken country and its financial system.

Whats funny to this observer is that the real reform if waiting patiently down the road as the kabuki theater bus rolls merrily along toward its fate. Do I know when nature will exact its pound of flesh? Of course not. But I do know we are closer today than we were a year ago.

I cannot emphasize enough why you must own physical gold.

Watch the miners here as usual they are in the crossroads short term and intermediate....long term you are fine if you get "stuck" on a trade if you are retail.I am gambling this morning on a lil greek bank so gl gang.

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in London on speculation economic growth will erode demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset.

Federal Reserve officials today may indicate the U.S. recovery is strengthening. Gold rose to a four-month high yesterday after Standard & Poor’s lowered Greece’s and Portugal’s credit ratings, spurring demand for the metal.

“In the short term, there may be safe-haven buying, but I don’t think that will be as important in the weeks ahead,” said Daniel Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London. “The Greece issue won’t derail economic recovery.”

Gold for immediate delivery dropped $4.85, or 0.4 percent, to $1,163 an ounce at 11:30 a.m. local time. The futures for June delivery were little changed at $1,163.30 on the Comex in New York.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it reduced its gold forecasts because of expectations that a “broadening economic recovery” will lead to higher U.S. interest rates.

Gold will average $1,165 an ounce this year and $1,350 in 2011, Eugene King, Peter Mallin-Jones and Andrew Byrne said in a report dated yesterday. In January, the company’s forecasts were $1,265 an ounce for 2010 and $1,425 an ounce for 2011.

The dollar rose against the euro for a second day today. Gold usually moves in the opposite direction to the dollar.

The Federal Open Market Committee plans to issue a policy statement at around 2:15 p.m. today in Washington. The morning “fixing” of gold, the price used by some mining companies to sell production, rose to $1,164.25 an ounce from $1,149.50 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing

update I at 1319 edt....FOMC TEXT

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-fomc-statement-2010-04-28

update II April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose to the highest price since December on signs of increased demand for the precious metal as an alternative to holding currencies.

Gold priced in the euro, sterling and the Swiss franc extended rallies, rising to records for a second day after Spain’s credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s. Yesterday, S&P lowered its credit ratings for Greece and Portugal, sparking concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will threaten a global economic recovery.

“You’re seeing a general attraction to gold on a worldwide basis,” said Stephen Platt, a commodity analyst at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago. “The sovereign-debt panic is spreading and forcing a flight to quality into gold.”

Gold futures for June delivery rose $9.60, or 0.8 percent, to $1,171.80 an ounce on the Comex in New York, after touching $1,175.30, the highest price since Dec. 4.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, expanded for a second day to a record 1,146.83 metric tons yesterday, according to figures on the company’s Web site.

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said that European policy makers may need to come up with as much as 600 billion euros ($794 billion) in aid or buy government bonds if they are to stamp out the region’s spreading fiscal crisis. The financial turmoil in Europe has dragged down the 16-nation currency 8.3 percent this year against the dollar.

Store of Value

Investors concerned that governments will have to monetize their debt are turning to gold as a store of value, said Bart Melek, a commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

“There is the risk that some money will have to be printed and that means a reduction in purchasing power,” Melek said.

57 comments:

  1. Watch NBG for a bounce.
    Could get some good entries to add to miners thanks to GS. They cut GFI to neutral and HMY to sell

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  2. Just curious, are folks here for or against the Volcker rule?

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  3. @Temo - awesome re GFI, anyone know why the cut? I have to lay low on the client floor here...

    On the lighter side, re: fox news discussion last night...

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-april-20-2010/bernie-goldberg-fires-back

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  4. Also gang dont forget ALU took a nice haircut...back in that one.

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  5. ANDS sniffing support at 2.39.....might wanna play it there...or 2.20 next up....these biotechs are hard to use T/A on so beware

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  6. Homer I only got the headline so I dont know the reason.

    Fab I am for the Volcker rule. But it aint gonna happen

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  7. I don't understand something and maybe you folks can help me figure this out.

    PM stocks were up yesterday and are up again today. This includes silver stocks.

    Silver was down yesterday and it's down again today. I'm trying to understand why this is happening. Yesterday was OpEx so yesterday's drop I attributed to that but todays activity is baffling.

    Thanks.

    -C

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  8. real money here AND overseas are accumulating paper gold and silver (miners)...Paper gld slv comex etc. is holding the physical price down...due to manipulation. They are the reason the phyical price is maintained. It is also the reason in the future you will wake up one morning and gold will be up 500 dollars over night.

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  9. Temo-

    No concerns about smaller banks not being able to hedge or manage risk?

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  10. lakecabs.....did you buy NBG at 2.60. Joe loaded heavy.....i bot small but look at it.....kabbooom

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  11. miners on gut ripping breakout....hehehe I'm a devil ....er wait lil hyena.....

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  12. kli, I bought NBG at 2.60 as well after private mail from Joe, he was spot on again when he told me yesterday was capitulation on high volume, have never seen any one better than him.-Jim

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  13. Jim,

    Do not forget to take profit, nice little short squeeze today on NBG.

    Joe

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  14. Joe, saw the drop from $3 when you dump for profit you dump brother. Kli is right about you an efficient ruthless hyena.-Jim

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  15. Greece bans short selling :

    http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-48055620100428

    Joe

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  16. Joe: Remember what happened to the American markets when the USA did that in 2008?

    hehe

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  17. I'd take profit on NBG too. You're playing with fire.

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  18. Jay,

    Profits are made when there is too much fear in the air, think like big boys, heheeeee!

    Joe

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  19. Double-top in gold. It is going DOWN and very HARD at that. Gold is done until 2015...get the fuck out now while you can.

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  20. jammer: You think gold will go down as Europe crashes?

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  21. Jammer,

    Great advice you are giving kli and others, you want them to sell now and buy back in 2015 when Gold is much higher than now due to DEFLATION, it's a sound advice which most retail traders do, buy high sell low,heeeeee!

    Joe

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  22. Jay,

    Listen to jammer, short Gold heavy now and stay short till 2015 and then cover your shorts when gold is at 1500 an ounce.

    Joe

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  23. Jay,

    what ever you do make sure not to make a wrong decision, if you do I promise I will take you to cleaners and sleep well at night as well.

    Joe

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  24. Jammer for President!

    -C

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  25. Jammer I agree with Joe ....short gold heavy here ......hehehe

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  26. Fab ......Volker is as straight an arrow as a central banker can be. He plays the game by the book. In 1979 he absolutely was a ROCK....you should have seen the heat he took for prime interest rates at 18%.....he absolutely was responsible for the ability of loose monetary supply later under Greenspan to exist for as long as it did.....and yes Volker is right

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  27. 200% Short Gold and Alpo with Prechter and Jammer!

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  28. All,

    Jammer is right, short Gold heavy, put evrything you own shorting Gold, it's a no brainer. Gold has no value, it's bull shit when some think Gold does well during deflation OR stagflation due to SAFETY NET. Jammer has been telling us since last yr when Gold was at 800 to sell and go away, he said the same thing about overall market. P2 toped at S&P 850 and EW has been exactly correct, you should have listened and shorted the heck out of Gold when it was at 800, you would have been a rich man now.

    Joe

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  29. Joe, all I can say is I am glad I have never fucked with you. You are a brutal mother fucker.-Jim

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  30. Watch GDX for miners .....lot of resistance at 53 ......if it breaks it then bababoom...I have reduced my core and hope it holds for reload....some of your can chip in for next buy but this is one huge inverse HnS developing going back several years.

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  31. I might beef ours up a little with some GFI after it got beat up. We're kind of light though it is coming back a little. Might actually be able to get rid of the AUY soon, I agree with Kli, kind of a 'meh' performer.

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  32. Jim, why do you have such a foul mouth, you f*cking piece of sh*t?

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  33. Homer....Watch AUY don't dump it all......it has lagged as the big boys accumulate it....could continue...but watch earnings in early May..

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  34. anon, unlike a fucking coward like you I do not hide who I am and will never post under anon. Not only you are a fucking slime you are also a coward who posts under anon.-Jim

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  35. Jim...you letum have it.....fkum

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  36. Kli Thanks for the comments on GFI. I listen to you and Joe. I think I want buy back in GFI around 12.80 to 13.00. What do you two think about taking a postion there. Thanks Woodcarver

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  37. Gold and Goldman Sachs are Up yet again!

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  38. WOODCARVER...grats......tough call on miners here ...reduced my core today and will be careful going forward..great volume on miners with breakouts all over. Look at AUY here ....downside is less than the other miners ....may want to buy some at 10.68 in am if you want to day trade....otherwise I trade around my core ...gl

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  39. Sorry for my last post yesterday making no sense, I was still awake and drinking wine at 8am as an indirect result of a friend having a health crisis Tuesday evening. Before that though I think it was a good dialogue!

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  40. No apology necessary.....I understood....which now bothers me now that I think about it.......ehhe

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  41. Analyze if you are around tonight can you give any T/A on the miners and gld here

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  42. Yes, analyze I would appreciate that. After lagging, Jag was up big today, too. Are you holding that one? been away for awhile, what about S and ALU (assume their problems are due to euro). And oh, have you been buying sgol and the other physical gold etf (can't remember the symbol)? Questions, questions. As always, many thanks for your time and thoughts. - Nancy

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  43. For the miners, a couple of them are in or have entered consolidation ranges, JAG is coming off the bottom of the range so there should be continuation upward - as mentioned before, it tends to be a bumpy ride full of retraces to shake out weak hands. EGO, SLW have been good here as predicted and should continue to show strength. As I mentioned Friday night, SWC was in danger of a smackdown early in the week, and it got that yesterday. I would look for a bounce in that one but limited to the 4/26 high. It would not necessarily be the first I would play. To your question of what I play, my core set of ponies is EGO, SLW, ANV, GLD. I tend to not play the others as frequently. I do like SSRI here, I mentioned it as a laggard to the others on the weekend, it is now showing ramp signs. For the market in general, SPY has been in a consolidation range for the past two weeks, it needs to hold the bottom of this range (118) to break out to the upside and give the SPX 1250 target overall. The ponzi is scrambling to make multiple stick saves across various indices, if they need a breakdown to expand the consolidation range to do it, $INDU 10835 will be used as a bottom to accomplish that if a graceful sector transition cannot be pulled off. The intermediate trend remains, but this is the first time since January where they are struggling to prevent a downdraft, and it is showing with some institutional distribution and shakiness of leading indices. Like other times, usually when their grip appears tenduous is the best time to be long, but I remain cautious in long positions, and am playing half the size I normally do. They need to pick it up here almost immediately to avoid downside, I will be trigger-happy to sidestep if I see any significant SPY red with bearish A/D and U/D in the short term. - Analyze.

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  44. Analyze good post. I agree and have been playing half sizes as well. JAG, GFI, SLW and XRA. With the exception of NGB that I was large but in and out after 30 cents.

    I dont want to be too greedy. hehehe

    SPX 1180 shows good support but 1190/95 seems to be a short term hurdle.

    1160 looks like the new support for Gold on its way to 2500.

    Jammer I will buy all the gold you want to short.

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  45. Temo, agree, they need that hurdle pronto for upside. - Analyze.

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  46. You know Jim, I don't think anyone comes here to listen to a foul-mouthed, rude piece of garbage like you. I know I don't. I come here to read what 4 people have to say: Kli, Red, Joe, and Analyze. There's more valuable insight from those 4 than you can get pretty much anywhere else.

    So, you can go to hell.

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  47. Hey anon - I know you think you're funny, and I KNOW you are having fun, but really, put a handle on the post when you call someone out. It's been a rule for a few thousand years. If you don't, well, just hike the skirt up a little higher and we'll say hello...and this is coming from someone who never engages...

    BTW, Analyze, awesome post!!! Apologies for adding that to this post, but, thanx, excellent as always

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  48. Homer, my beef is not with you, plus I have seen your posts, and you're also a good man from what I can see.

    It's that b*tch Jim that I don't like.

    -Anon

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  49. But Anon - that's my point. We are all here because we have a common belief and understanding. We don't all agree on everything, but there is a lynch pin which we all believe in or at least (given the circumstances) are afraid of. There is a difference between friendship and respect. My friends know me and I know them and we are friends because we accept and understand each other. I respect most people here even though I do not know them from a hole in the wall. Forget about kli, joe, red, analyze etc., they are gods. My point is, like it or not, look past that which annoys you, stop the childish calling out and JOIN IN to the discussion!!!! What you are engagin in makes no sense for an intelligent person to do...confusing.

    e.g. If I'm at a meeting of folks to talk about how we can make the little league better in my town, and someone next to me shares that opinion, do I dismiss them or even worse, call them out because they don't act the way I want in regards to something else?

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  50. Homer, your points are well taken. I guess what rubbed me the wrong way was that everyone of Jim's posts starts and ends with F this and F that. You'll notice I did not attack him for any of his ideas, just his foul-mouth.

    In any event, I will try and ignore that stuff, while paying attention to the more important details in this blog. The discussion here is always fascinating to say the least.

    Let us now return to our regularly scheduled programming!

    -Anon

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  51. Homer, what's your guess on what Joe does for living? The reason I am asking is because that man is beyond knowlegable about so many subjects and it's hard not to be curious.

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  52. Anon, why are you asking homer about joe's profession?
    Frank

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  53. Frank, just curious!

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  54. "that man is beyond knowlegable about so many subjects and it's hard not to be curious."

    I agree but even though Joe does bite sometime, you should ask. ;-)

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  55. Jim, anon does have a point. You don't have to drop so many f bombs. It makes you seem like a Joe apologist, which I'm certain isn't the case.

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  56. Hey Morla - Glad it was the wine talking cause you had me scratching my head there for a bit! Sorry to banter bout Healthcare as you had your friend on your mind, Hope all goes well for them.

    Tom

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