Saturday, April 24, 2010

SATURDAY MORNING FEAR WARNING

Put your bowl of Cheerios down and read this NOW. Sorry ...kidding. Just another reminder of what is coming down the pike from our good friend Marc Faber. And I wouldn't reprint this if I didn't believe it to be correct. In fact, this has always been the history of this game. Be aware that consolidation phases of gold are accumulation of the metal by the big money. All manipulated to not only keep the fiat game stable but for the big boyz to accumulate on the cheap. It is to create doubt for the schmuck retail holder to give up on the investment and puke up their shares.........it works. It applies to the mining sector also. If you can trade this range then its quite profitable but holding is very non rewarding (during the accumualation phase). The problem for retail is unlike the big boyz....they don't accumulate....the lever down their positions. Eventually a variety of factors will enter into the phase to limit it and presto the move up will begin. The next bull phase will be breath-taking and most investors won't chase it. I have three bull waves in this run. We have completed one. The next two will end around 10,000 or higher as faber says. Is there a way to give you a 100% guarantee. NO. But if you think that zero percent rates and freshly printed fiat makes sense .....be my guest. I will continue to also play the miners ...they are more volatile and subject to the whims of the overall market to some degree. But thats the game. Buy the physical and forget it. Go enjoy life. I like to gamble in the market. Its just a game. .....here's the excerpt...

Hong Kong (Kitco News) -- The rising price of gold is far from over since paper money will continue to lose value, according to Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

“If you have $100 today, you buy that much less in terms of a basket of goods and services then you did ten years ago – paper money has already lost a lot of value and in my view it will continue to lose value. The price of gold will adjust on the upside according to the loss of the purchasing power of money,” Faber said in an exclusive interview with Kitco News.

Still bullish on gold, Faber views precious metals as currencies, not commodities. He said that precious metals are currently his currencies of choice. Currently, stronger currencies such as the Canadian and Australian Dollar are still vulnerable to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, he said on the sidelines of the World MoneyShow in Hong Kong.

Faber said that he continues to buy the yellow metal, “If someone is rich they should buy a ton every month. “

He also said that everyone should buy gold because of the low US interest rates, “At zero percent interest, I don’t see why someone would not have part of their money in gold and silver.”

Faber said that "as far as the eye can see, interest rates under Bernanke will stay at zero and below." He noted that the current Vice Chairman of the Fed , "Janet Yellen, another totally, ignorant economist, removed from any reality, said herself six months ago, ‘if I could implement interest rates below zero, I would do it.’ So now you know what the policy in the US will be,” Faber said.
He also said that if gold prices substantially rise one day, there could be expropriation. “The Americans could force the Europeans to do the same – once they have all the gold in the world they would re-value it at $10,000 an ounce," Faber


http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100412J.html

28 comments:

  1. 2 people I wouldnt bet against is Faber and Rogers. Besides we Asian Ex-pats need to stick together. hehehe

    ReplyDelete
  2. Analyze, what's a good entry for CNAM, and ANDS?
    Kim

    ReplyDelete
  3. Temo1051, what's a good entry for CNAM, and ANDS?
    Kim

    ReplyDelete
  4. Kim, I cannot say I am a huge fan of playing low dollar pharma, especially with ANDS earnings on 4/27. But if you want a one day trade where you may get some pre-earnings interest runup, and you dump it before EOD Monday, it is okay here, but if it broke 2.50 I would throw it out, and the natural exit would be 2.85 on the upside. If CNAM puts in a basing pattern here on the gap support (which looks dicey to me that it will hold it), I would trigger on it reversing up through 6.6 with intraday volume confirming, otherwise I would take a pass. This is one instance where I would wait for the confirmation instead of projecting it. Technically this has some headwinds to overcome before it would go ripping to new highs. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Kim,

    While I wouldnt disagree with Analyze I do have a different take on how I am playing these.

    I like ANDS below 2.50. Like Joe has mentioned the low is 1.44 so if it gets taken down I plan to add.

    For CNAM the top of the gap is 5.86 and the bottom is 5.31. My buy point is under 6 and to add if the gap is filled.

    This the plan I am comfortable with. We are gamblers here playing in the ponzi casino so nothing is a sure thing.

    Follow whatever scenario that best fits your risk tolerance and trading profile.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Temo, that's a good plan, scale down for the support bounce instead of playing the upside target. Between our two scenarios it covers either immediate move up or positioning into support if it goes down. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  7. May need to refresh your cache Kli, last post in not displaying. Could be something on my side too. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Agree with answers above and will reiterate the advice on using pure T/A on these low priced biotechs. They are news driven and can rip either direction. Relying upon T/A with a stock like ANDS can get you killed.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I like both Temo and Analyze take on ANDS and CNAM. I tend to avoid pharma after a momementum spike, if you like a play wait until trading interest hits the gutter and place a bet otherwise expect to puke it up. CNAM lots of shares being issued recently to raise capital, suspect insiders were shorting their own shares to come up with the funds; business is legit and looks like they have target of taking it above 7.50 in 6 months but questions remain if any of the new shares enter the float, changes the dynamics of trading if they do, also would lower the top Analyze estimated. Miners look a little sick even as physical looks like it will continue going up short term, higher oil and energy costs may be impacting operating costs.

    10 year Treasuries are still low compared to inflation but will soon be too high for the indebted masses, especially in the housing sector when the last support is pulled out in a week.

    BRIC nations will continue to stockpile commodities and gold with the continued debasement. It will still be in an orderly manner for now; China's 2+ trillion in fiat reserves in nothing compared to the power of the printing presses coupled with the huge war chest of the Cabal.

    At the end of the day it still all about jobs which will continue to decline as long as oil is at these levels or higher.

    S&P 1225 coming up next. Don't trade paper if you can't afford to lose or hold for a period of time during a smackdown. Decent shelter, diet, and health (physical, mental, spiritual) should come first. Once the stagflation period is over (it could be ending anytime from late this year into early 2012, only fate truly knows the exact date regardless on how hard the strings of the puppets are pulled) stop trading paper and start preparing for K Winter.

    ReplyDelete
  10. None of you liked my outrageous gold predictions??.....Throw rocks at least..:-)

    ReplyDelete
  11. I think 10k is a little low. The gov confiscation scenario has happened before and history does repeat itself.

    ReplyDelete
  12. If a number of large unplanned events takes place and the Cabal loses its grip of control on the illusion of fiat and global power, then 10k per oz on the black market is not too unrealistic. Without their version of Order the whole world would descend into total chaos along the lines of Rwanda/Burundi; however, Nature doesn't give a rip about the desires of Man or Monkey. As for Faber he is telling you half truths, none really lies but without the whole truth you only see the misconception of what is truly before you, but then most people cannot deal with the whole truth as Joe pushed to hard buttons the other night.

    10k gold, Alpo riots among the masses while the true powers wait it out in their sanctuaries and bunkers does not inspire great confidence for most of humanity to make it unscathed over the next decade.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hopefully nature's enema will yield positives for the survivors. Of course if you aren't the survivor then it really is not too optimistic for you. Out of nature's fire will come renewal. I guess thats positive. Right now the undergrowth of this is so distorted I really cannot tell what the outcome will be other than a lot of destruction.

    ReplyDelete
  14. There is no way gold is going to 10K. That's outrageous.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Physical gold is already $100,000 an ounce if you divide paper gold by what really exists.. If paper gold hits 10k that puts physical metal at around $1M per ounce. Whether or not paper gold can hit 10k before the currency implodes is anyone's guess.

    Faber also played the race card in an interview recently, saying the GS charges were based in antisemitism. The SEC finally does something other than surf porn and this is the thanks they get..

    ReplyDelete
  16. Morla,

    Gets even more interesting if you divide the paper gold by the actual gold at Central Banks that are not loaned out, filled with Tungsten or can even meet COMEX delivery standards. Next comes the question of the quality of the gold left for safe keeping under the Federal Reserve in New York. Why do I get this nagging suspicion Dr. Evil either has most of the higher quality physical gold in his possession and/or first dibbs on what's left at repositories like those underneath the NY FED. Once foreign countries get stiffed on their physical gold holdings, that is how you can get 10k for the physical and the final spike in stagflation.

    ReplyDelete
  17. No matter how bad it gets if you know what plants to eat and can start a fire and know where fresh water is you are good. May not be pretty but you can be okay if you are not proud about it.

    ReplyDelete
  18. First, Analyze mentioned a basing pattern. Does that pattern mean CNAM returns to the low to mid 5's and forms a "base" at that level before moving up again. How likely that this thing retraces all the way back into the 3's?

    ReplyDelete
  19. 10,000 gld jan 2011 150 calls were purchased on friday...nice round number.

    ReplyDelete
  20. CBS I dont want to speak for Analyze but what I think he is talking about is CNAM is showing support at the top of the gap but not moving much higher off of it and then falling back. It seems poised to go either way IMO.

    If it breaks down 5.31 will be the next area to watch for support.

    ReplyDelete
  21. CBS, the posts Temo and I made directly correlate - what I meant was I was looking for a basing pattern here to form and reverse on volume as the entry, but felt is was dicey it would hold this level i.e. the gap fill is probable. Temo meant he was also seeing the gap fill as probable and was scaling in playing that potential support level at the bottom as his criteria to look for the reversal. One approach is waiting for confirmation, the other is projecting the confirmation. Retracing back to the 3's is low probability IMO. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Lol, Temo we posted one minute apart. - Analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  23. The actual reliance on gold price reaching a particular level is actually missing the point in some way.....the phase of exponential gold move is the phase you want to be actually exiting positions in favor of assets that are deflated that you have a shopping list of. Such as valuable farm land or valuable collector car etc. ...depending on what you hold. or it may just wind up and exchange for food or border guard bribery.....WTFKs

    ReplyDelete
  24. If you want to diversify out of just US dollars and don't want to hold that much physical gold or speculative stocks. Another option is setting up a rainy day fund in Swiss Bank account in Swiss Francs, especially when the US dollar peaks out in value. Private Banking with the Rothschilds Bank or Credit Suisse are two options, others more familiar than me can get you opinions.

    ReplyDelete
  25. "Another option is setting up a rainy day fund in Swiss Bank account in Swiss Francs, especially when the US dollar peaks out in value. Private Banking with the Rothschilds Bank"


    heheeeee, I bet kli the rich hillbilly from kansas has already thought about that option.

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  26. Only because of the "hyena" boy from chi town taught me......yayaya

    ReplyDelete
  27. Faber is a turd. Recently, he was talking about all the "investors" who were not nimble enough to get into equities last year. He never once mentioned equities the entire year. Do not trust him. Too many people are pushing gold. Something is wrong with it as an investment.

    ReplyDelete