Saturday, May 1, 2010

BLACK SWAN? OR JUST AN OIL SOAK PELICAN update I

The incredible ecological and financial catastrophe spriralling out of control in the Gulf of Mexico has the potential to become a true Black Swan event. Even though this is in the early stages it can rapidly rise to this status over the next few days as the full potential of this becomes realized. There is also the possibility that it may drag on for months and become a calamity that makes the Exxon Valdez disaster look like a minor spill. Is this just more crying fire in a crowed theater. Well...lets look at what we know. Right now there are 5000 barrels a day going out into open seas being distributed across the entire gulf coast of the United states from New Orleans to Naples Fla over the next 4 days. Some of the largest fishing and wildlife estuaries in the world exist here. That alone is devastating. Right now it appears very likely that it minimally will take 4 weeks to patch the leak. That would put this very close to the Exxon Valdez 250K barrel dump. Lets hope they can fix it quicker. But no one has EVER plugged a leak of this nature. It's virgin territory and there is no guarantee this may go on much longer. No one can answer. This could have a devastating impact on longer term energy prices as future off shore drilling is affected here and other countries. Talk about dangerous...think what it would be to plug one of the Brazilian deep wells. Watch closely for hints of what is going to take place as a result. There are second and third derivative plays coming from this and the sharks are already placing their bets. Rising Soybean prices as the fish meal feed for livestock supplement is impacted. Solar and alternative energy plays.....like wind,coal, nuclear. But the real story right now is the overall impact this may have on our nations ecology and economy. This is nature and it is NOT going to be as easily manipulated as the stock market story. Read the following Times piece......

Yet a review of the response suggests it may be too simplistic to place all the blame for the unfolding environmental catastrophe on the oil company. The federal government also had opportunities to move more quickly, but did not do so while it waited for a resolution to the spreading spill from BP.

The Department of Homeland Security waited until Thursday to declare that the incident was “a spill of national significance,” and then set up a second command center in Mobile, Ala. The actions came only after the estimate of the size of the spill was increased fivefold to 5,000 barrels a day.

The delay meant that the Homeland Security Department waited until late this week to formally request a more robust response from the Department of Defense, with Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano acknowledging even as late as Thursday afternoon that she did not know if the Defense Department even had equipment that might be helpful.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/us/02spill.html

Notice the picture of the "black swan" what a mess......
What's sad is i will probably make a "trade" out of this.....don't even know if I can its so grotesque.....gl gang

update I Just given both sides...I like Biggs....but.

http://pragcap.com/barton-biggs-this-is-not-the-time-to-panic

61 comments:

  1. Just a real friend testing it out. Stray cat, very hard to get rid of.

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  2. What happened?

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  3. Which stray cat?

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  4. What's going on here?

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  5. Bronze is that you on vicodin again....

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  6. This spill is bad...

    Where is yesterday's blog? Spooks get it?

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  7. My last posts disappeared?

    Ask the question for Analyze again. Could you take a look at the USO (oil) weekly and monthly charts, mainly the bands and other technicals and give us an impression of how the charts look over the next 6-18 months?

    Thanks.

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  8. KLI: I think BP is due for a 10-20% down day and I've got lots of cash ready to go.
    I'll play it.

    Another play I'd like to find... Which companies will make a lot of money cleaning this mess up?

    As for the Black Swan event... The masters might use it for a tank to sucker in shorts. If we see anything like that, I'll be using tight stops.

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  9. homer: I was wondering the same thing. Yesterday's blog just vanished.

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  10. Weekend outings cleaning off black pelicans in Green BP taken to the cleaners T-shirts.

    Homer:
    A text copy of the deleted blog is now located in the files section of the fortified tree house.

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  11. Immred:
    The price structure of USO in lower timeframes is not aligning with the monthly model that is set up to contain it under the 2007 low. It should be starting to break down, similar to a chart like MOS, but it is not. There is a 6 month structure that is set up to fail under 38.19 that must resolve in that timeframe. There is a backup structure for one year that is meant to contain it under 51.16 if the current bound is breached, then it would flatline from there. If some event made it exceed 53.35 within those 2 timeframes it breaks out and has an eventual target of 216.8. Under that failed containment model 18 months has it re-attain the previous high, then up from there. - Analyze.

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  12. Thanks Analyze, I was afraid of that but was not sure of the timing. The 53.25 USO line in the sand then translates to around 112 $/barrel on a closing basis where all hell starts to breaks out.

    Ok it's all Fun and DTO games until the containment vessel breaks from an unknown torpedo, when it's then time to dust off the Bicycle and vintage cans of Alpo.

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  13. I guess they don't call it black gold for nothing!!! ;-)

    Thanx from me too analyze...

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  14. Here's the link to Thursday's blog. It's been deleted.

    http://kliguy38depression2news.blogspot.com/2010/04/now-or-never.html

    Kliguy?

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  15. I was asked to relay some new ground rules for Kli's Blog after an incident. Not really my business what happened.

    "Please put a post on kli's blog and mention that no one can post as anon any more since that option is no longer available and those who post with their ID who are not regulars better behave." Joe

    On a lighter note the timing of the reversal will give you an idea of how serious the BP spill is.

    "Mother Nature is a Terra-ist Leader who has been fighting a guerrilla war against man kind from the very start." - Uncyclopedia

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  16. I did not delete it....I am aware its deleted. You also will not be able to post as anonymous without registering. This will keep it clean and less ambiguity on posters...which is good. This blog has an excellent reputation with certain interests and will continue as long as I wish to play the "game". So have at it boys n girls. Just pay attention when "details" of the game are given by posters that you are familiar with.

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  17. It just takes a few seconds to register. I appreciate the changes.

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  18. No problem Jay....the changes are to prevent trolls from disrupting the thread. You can still be disruptive but the PTB still are able to monitor Ids so if you think you aren't monitored......wrong. Everything and everybody is. So keep your posting legit gang.

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  19. Thanx red.

    In honor of the new rules...I am now 3D Homer.

    In the words of Mr. Burns...Excellent!!

    I have yet to see a game plan on capping the spill. And this is not a spill, its an undersea gusher. If one were to be suspicious, one would be amazed at the timing of this JUST after O says lets drill offshore. I feel bad, the people on the gulf coast does not deserve this.

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  20. 888.....went into link...."it does not exist". You see..it doesn't exist. hehehehe...so don't worry. I'm not....:-)... and thankyou ghosts for your help and support your pal Kli

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  21. Ooops - I meant...I am now 3D homer again.

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  22. Mr. Burns would be second tier according to Joe. hehe

    KLI, see what you've done to me, after all these years of reading your posts on SKF/this blog, now I am a Joe fan too. When Great Depression 2 hits, this blog will be my source of survival.

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  23. "It's been deleted" = "it doesn't exist"

    We agree on that.

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  24. Jay in any profession there is good and bad and the cleaner brings order. There will be no anarchy in this "game" and try and understand that the the blog is an attempt to tell you what the "game" is... Joe is your friend and protector..

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  25. Homer: [thinking to himself] Why is Mr. Burns being so nice to me?
    Mr. Burns: And if you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.
    Homer: [thinking to himself] Wait a minute. Is he coming onto me?
    Mr. Burns: I mean, if I should slip something into your pocket, what's the harm?
    Homer: [thinking to himself] My God! He is coming onto me!
    Mr. Burns: After all, negotiations make strange bedfellows. [laughs and winks]
    Homer: [screams on the inside] Sorry, Mr. Burns, but I don't go in for these back door shenanigans. Sure, I'm flattered, maybe even a little curious, but the answer is no!

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  26. @Jay - lol...

    More an more I am not a fan of Buffet.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100501-701232.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

    Give me more Soros. Wasn't he buying gold as he panned it? I trust that way more, he wanted it cheaper!!! Gotta love that!!!

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  27. red - that is amazing!!!! Too funny...maybe even a little curious!!!!

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  28. Cleaners - my favorites are both Harvey Keitel who played one twice. Movies were...pulp fiction (Mr. Wolf) and....the American version of le femme nikita...

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  29. You're getting close Homer. don't want to potentially ruin another Sayanim's weekend by hot button topics which we are free to discuss but they are not.

    This forum is like a specialized sandbox, think of it as entertainment like American Idol for ponzi casino junkies and some members of different hierarchies. With a few regular hosts and contestants along with occasional new guests. Just like a beauty pageant or REO home sale: employees, friends and family are forbidden to participate.

    One topic that should be also refrained from is actively inciting violent revolution, that will get you a quick visit from the Federal Police regardless of where you are in the world. Hunger strikes are ok but I doubt 12 hours without a donut would drive this group crazy.

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  30. homer those are good for movies ....how about the cleaner that we are referring to TRAINED travolta in "paris with love" movie...

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  31. As for the Big Polluter oil slick, if you don't contain it by the end of next week you're going to have one huge kill zone along the gulf not to mention disruptions to shipping traffic and less oil production for domestic consumption.

    From the technical charts Analyze looked over oil prices were being contained wel at least through March, prices will have to go up to continue the reflation efforts in the US economy, especially now considering the potential economic kill zone, even if some supply from the near gulf is disrupted indefinitely.

    So oil companies with operating rigs should see higher profits as the stagflation will have to be pushed forward to offset the deflation from this incident. Consequences will still be high unemployment going forward.

    I am more inclined to believe the 10 million gallons than the official 1.6 so far.

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  32. Hm maybe I didn't need to make a blog to use this ID after all.. Well it fits the shtick.

    Joe is our friend and protector.. but who protects us from Joe? Wasn't he the one venturing into Illu.. er, you know, that territory?

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  33. And s'all good Tom, my drunken rambling was only an indirect consequence of my friend's plight anyhow. Saw him earlier, situation was milder than first speculated, but brain lesions still sounds frightening to me.

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  34. TXB: Did you go shopping at the mall today? It's always fun to spend a little of the loot.

    I dropped a couple hundred at amazon.com today.
    Bought a book that's been on my radar for a while.
    "How Capitalism Will Save Us: Why Free People and Free Markets Are the Best Answer in Today's Economy" by
    Steve Forbes

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  35. Jay.......you wasted your money....steve forbes is part of the ponzi.... ;-).......no wait just do the oposite....

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  36. Morla, a little doubt is good. It means you are still questioning the facts and opinions presented before you and making your own judgment.

    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? - Decimus Iunius Iuvenalis

    As for your friend may God's grace be with them or every moment in each life has a purpose if you believe more in Krishna, though the body adapts it is always comforting to have another caring soul by the side in times of need.

    As to the side show circus here, looks like some housekeeping was done that really doesn't relate to the rest of us. Any post can be easily tracked backed to the geographic location and network card id source in real time especially on a public forum, this was done to help out even the most incompetent security agencies like Homeland Security do their job. Since most of us peons are still posting here it infers we have no real power or influence and not considered a threat to any of the controlling hierarchies or their plans.

    It is not just oil that has been in a very tightly controlled trading range since last year, you can add the S&P, long bond, US dollar and gold to that list; and not all will get to stay at the party if oil starts its brutal commodity spike ascent over the next 6-18 months. The Greek hole has been temporarily plugged and should buy some time for the other PIIGS in the dam.

    What will finally take this Ponzi down? Mother Nature because she's a b!tch and her advances can't be denied.

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  37. Kli
    I hope you keep this site up as long as you are in "the game," even if you get some problem posters. I think it is one of the most informative on the internet.

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  38. Morla.....Joe had an imitator on the other night when the blog was taken down. So the imitator was cleaned up and now all is well. No more anon game playing.

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  39. Officially registered. Sitting on my hands to keep me from clapping.

    WTF, oil spill how far down? Ummm...we figured out how to put it in but, never really thought through getting back down there to fix it. We have top experts scratching their heads... I mean working on it right now.

    Dumb looks are still free.

    Watta mess. Watta terrible sad mess.

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  40. I thought something funny was going on with Joe's postings lately. Now I know why.

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  41. I just found a public company that specializes in cleaning up oil spills if anyone is interested.

    Clean Harbors:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CLH


    I'm not going to play it though. I'm going to look for shorting opportunities when I see the planets aligned.

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  42. morning gang....this is my morning..night shifts make my hours wacko.....anyway Jay good find and there are more 2nd and 3rd drivative trades...how about short darden rest..DRI. Input costs are going to hurt this one potentially..they may get their seafood from farms BUT....it WONT matter ALL shrimpw will go nuts.

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  43. Hey Wilks - I believe almost 1 mile down...robots went down to check it out. This after BP said the oil we saw is probably residual (probably was). Haven't heard a straight story on the cap that is supposed to take core of this.

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  44. Wilks welcome to the fort as red says......btw if you guys can find my phone please return your pal kli

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  45. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Australia-looks-at-40-percent-apf-3561283878.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

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  46. Ok seems ANY topic is free to discuss. Same disclaimer of yelling fire in a theatre may get you a visit from the FEDS.

    Only rule is you have to pick your own handle and not use someone elses. So if a GS employees want to gripe about being treated unfairly by Dr. Evil that's seems to be ok.

    CBS a 40% mining tax just gets passed on to consumers, contributes to stagflation - higher essentials and higher unemployment.

    The spill will definitely exceed the Exxon Valdez, not sure if it will surpass the 1979 Mexican rig incident. Cajun dishes are going to be pricey in a few weeks. The bigger impact will be affordable oil supply in the US especially heading into Memorial Day.

    Consider profit taking on short positions after the weekend Greek $146 billion b utt plug.

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  47. Kli or Joe, please give me your technical analysis of ENER, and any information you can provide would be greatly appreciated.

    Thank you, Woodcarver

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  48. ENER is sitting near a multi multi year low and could see 6.75 .....My feeling is that looking at the low float ...and high short position with the major holders of blackrock etc. and the current global oil/gulf mess....this could be getting close to a mega short squeeze move. Just random thoughts. nice short term trade area at this current key support level of the 7.05 level...should touch 7.70 near term. Red help on this it looks interesting....Analyze may or may not be interested in this since its a low volatility play here

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  49. I find ENER interesting here, solar power play, also involved in battery technology. It is being accumulated and has multi-month volume divergence as well. At one point this was an 83 dollar stock. There is multi-year support at this current level from 2003-2004, which was a major consolidation phase before it broke out to 23.25 in late 2004. Not to say it would go there on a short squeeze, but of interest if it reversed trend. The pop does not need to resolve for a month, so even although the options are somewhat thinly traded the spread is decent, so I picked up a few June contracts off Friday's downdraft and support touch from Woodcarver's previous mention. Even without a pop it is an excellent scalp candidate off the support base, so this can be milked for profit for awhile. On another note NLC is the company being used by BP for chemical cleanup in the gulf as decided this weekend, and they need to greatly increase production to meet BP demand. Assuming they have decent margins there may be some giddy-up in that one.

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  50. Ah ok, I did always kinda wonder what stopped people from impersonating here.. Other than being Morla and there being no reason to impersonate me :)

    Shame your whole post had to go though, was a good read.

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  51. I'll pass on ENER, the pricing action on a weekly basis over the past year was the recovery. Check the float again Kli, 99.5% float. 6.97 to 7.52 is the possible range for Monday. Should be a bounce in the short ter but if 7 breaks decisively the descending triangle on the daily paints a very ugly picture.

    My pure guess is the competition and capacity from China on photovoltaics and input costs.

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  52. New York Times has this nice graphic depicting the PIIGS debt in graphical, pentagramal, terms:

    http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh-image/02marsh-image-custom1.jpg

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  53. There definitely is a dicey side to ENER, and breaking 7 is the equivalent of a hemlock chaser. I was hoping for one of Obama's wonderful speeches on clean energy as a result of the spill to get a pop here and get out. We shall see.

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  54. Great graphic Morla.

    Thanks!

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  55. nlc.....on the radar now thnx

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  56. Woodcarver Thanks Kli, Analyze, Irred6 for theinfor on ENER Woodcarver

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