Monday, May 17, 2010

OVERNIGHT MIRACLE..........AGAIN update III

Market reversal in overnight futures as one has grown to expect. The greatest "game" ever. Just understand the house and you have half a chance to survive this. Will they do the big "squeeze" today? Who knows. But you know its coming. I for one will not be playing anything heavy that I can't hold onto when my bet goes short term against me and I suggest you think about that. Can you hold onto a position if it drops 50% with confidence that it will return green in a reasonable time frame? You must have that confidence if you are swing trading.

We are in treacherous times. Perhaps the most treacherous trading market EVER. Be prepared for your positions to be tested to maximum pain. If you understand the underlying economics then you can survive this onslaught. Be disciplined and use no emotions. They will have to continue to print money like there is no tomorrow. We are in a spiral........an illusion of recovery.........its all they have.Kick the can down the road and hope. Hope that the torch and pitchfork crowd doesn't form. It's the game.

Here is a nice find on gold seek.......it could be a tell on the Comex positions.

To conclude this first section of this special Got Gold Report for gold futures, we think that it is now apparent that at least on the COMEX bourse in New York, the very largest of the paper gold sellers – the exemption-using bullion banks among them - have now become more isolated as “the sellers of last resort” for gold futures. We are interested to learn that at this particular moment in time the big bank sellers are not joined by the “other commercials,” the swap dealers, when they were indeed joined by them just ahead of the last really good correction for gold.



That doesn’t mean that gold can’t correct right here and right now, it certainly can, but if it does the swap dealers are now less well positioned for it. And, it also means that at least as of Tuesday, there was apparently quite a bit less “horsepower” on the sell side for gold.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1274076360.php

update I must read ...thnx tom They really only have one shot here...and that is the top kill, Watch for it and pay attention, be aware what this all means to ALL OF US and I hope I explained things well enough to be understood by anyone. The top kill shot should be coming soon...I hope...as soon as possible....if you hear it failed...or if the well blew itself apart before they can do it...get the fuck ready, because Pandora's box is about to open wide and the closest thing to the SHTF for real that we will likely see in our lifetimes is about come charging out at full rampant force...and it's a very large and deep box....


Godspeed people.......

http://rense.com/general90/analy.htm

update II Nice Wayalat roadmap for DOW this year ....remember ...these are predictions on DOW...not PMs

http://www.walayatstreet.com/

updateIII repost of some entry exit trades from Analyze
Here's a new batch of miner ponies with entry and exit targets with relevant percentages on the moves. I already did the CANSLIM and accumlation analysis as well to ensure they are ponzi-favored. The final one in the list is mostly targeted to Joe, since he seems to like that type of position. Here we go:

BVN - hope for a pullback to 34.9 and swing to 38 for a 19% winner. If it breaks out over 42.28 it has a swing target of 50 for 18.3% winner as alternate strategy.

GG - entry 44.37, exit 47.3 to game its consolidation range. If it breaks out from 48.7 I would exit at 51 previous high, should be 10% win on the more conservative 44.37-47.3 swing.

GFI - 13.5 entry, 14.9 exit, 10%

NG - game the consolidation range 7.8 - 9, 15.4% swing.

EGO - scalp the consolidation range 16.6 - 18.1 for 9% moves, has a larger unfulfilled 19.04 target.

HMY - play the 9.5-10.7 range, 12.6%

NGD - it should have a technical breakdown if the miners weaken, if it does pick it up at 5.36 and exit at 6.25, 16.6% move.

SVM - play the 7.8 to 9 range, 15.4%

NEM - play the 55 - 60 range, 9%

VGZ - only for the daring, but I believe this has a 2.24 - 2.81 move in it, 25% swing. Avoid this one unless you are used to playing high volatility, low-dollar stocks. This does have high accumulation going on, so it is not a crap play, just takes trading skill to pull it off.

Obviously in many of these we are looking for some level of pullback for entry. BTW if there is another leg down in SPX (not guaranteed), expect a bottom and hard reversal up in the 1091-1100 support zone. So there you have it, do your own DD.

26 comments:

  1. PAL's not a happy pos this morning. glad i sold last friday - but couldn't resists temptation to repurchase half my position at 3.83 ... any word of caution?

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  2. This was posted on Rick Ackerman's site regarding the BP Oil Disaster. Puts a bit more detail on to what's happening. Seems like the author knows what he's talking about.

    http://rense.com/general90/analy.htm

    This is some really scary reading.....

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  3. wolf......Joe was expecting PAL beatdown and was hoping for 3.50 to load.....I am already buying today...maybe too early but ok...Look at the fkn gold ripping green now.....watta game....this is a tug of war you cannot imagine behind the scenes.

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  4. Joe plays heavy.....which most cannot do. He caught the move this AM on PAL. The 30c down move was big on PAL with Market neutral and no news....indicated just weak hand shakeout in early trading for a bounce to come. Hyenas have to react if they are watching or don't play.

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  5. Tom, ty for the very interesting read! Scary indeed! I'm wondering guys, shouldn't oil price start to rise soon?

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  6. Also Joe played BVN today that was mentioned by Analyze two blogs ago on his T/A analysis

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  7. Oil will bounce back soon...right now the euro/dollar carry trade needs to stabilize but that "should" start its move..careful shorting oil here.....

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  8. Key support on oil is 68....if it holds it com'n back up if it breaks 65 next

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  9. TY, KLI...I am not short oil...wish I had been up to today...:)...I thought when the leak started oil would start to pop...thought that would be the excuse to take her back higher quick...I'm watching, wanting to go long...

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  10. SLW.....forming inverse HnS on the10day.....keep your eyes on it.....nxt target would be 24....

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  11. DTO starting to look like an attractive short ... wouldn't mind PAL pulling back a bit more ... but hard to believe they will let this market drop below S&P 1,125 without fleecing some shorts first

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  12. Joe is still holding Some DTO watching the 68 level......wolf if you are asking about shorting DTO then I think you need to keep 68 as the key level......

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  13. Pal support at 3.40 hit in feb. if it fails it may break 3......baboom.

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  14. dont forget GDX unfilled gap at 50.19

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  15. Ah, the GDX gap ... thanks kli ... still, wish I had the strength to simply put half my assets in gold, platinum and miners and walk away for 3 years ... but game is to fascinating to watch. so I watch, gamble, win some, lose a bit more and enjoy the fact that I have more than money to live for.

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  16. I guess I picked PAL up a little early last week. Ouch...

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  17. Kli, guys, is there an ETF/ETN that will short oil? Is there a double short? Any suggestions welcome...TY!

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  18. Sorry Kli, I mean double "long" oil...sorry...I'm brain dead today...any ideas?

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  19. Sorry TXB only one is UCO that i have played......if you can short DTO then ....thats bout it.....help

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  20. OBTW.......anyone liking this action weeeeeeee

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  21. ZZZ ZZZ ZZZ

    Bottom of the daily Bollinger Band on S&P touched early, any move above 1175 is not sustainable until the daily stochs and rsi are allowed to properly bottom out for a couple days.

    Hourly trading 1140 is immediate resistance followed by 1170. Failure to move above 1140 puts 1110 back into play. BP water torture except for really high beta risk plays.

    Oil looks even sicker, but a hard move down in oil would allow a long entry into PBR. Or for those playing ETFs shorting DTO during high volatility session, ETFs are still not recommended do to the decay and games.

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  22. Joe is like a hungry hyena waiting on SGY and PBR....I am still watching for severe beatdown for my final40% cash play on miners especially PAL which Joe believes will finish 7ish this year.....

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  23. Joe is leaning towards the 1998-99 scenario with dow testing 9400....in sept......between now and sept trading chop shop...Last 3 mo is this plays out will present as a nice bullish run up into January....remember this is his "lean"

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  24. I like SSRIs AH move, hopefully we follow through now that I loaded up some more :)

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  25. I added it today too Morla which means you're screwed........hehehhe

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