Friday, May 21, 2010

PANIC AND FEAR update I

And the slaughter resumes. Public debt vs GDP is just one more monster on the horizon this morning. Of course government debt is onerous, but public debt in many countries is out of control. In Italy its over 100% of GDP. We are over 50%. Lets see how that contributes to long, recoverable, sustainable, low inflation GROWTH. Thats right....that is the only scenario that gold over the long term will perform poorly in. But let all the pundits have their day in the sunshine saying they don't like gold. Allow them to shout it from every CNBS media forum they can. For that will only keep me buying more physical and hopefull at these levels.

Nothing has changed today. The Gulf has and open wound in its belly that is spewing the poison of its bowel into our pristene life giving ecology that sustains our fisheries that have given us food for hundreds of years. Now they are being destroyed perhaps for decades as poison drifts deep into the life giving marshes of that ecosystem. Good luck manipulating that one on CNBS.

Germany still is grappling with swallowing a grenade for the Eurozone and the Master's bonds. Should be an exciting conclusion....whatever it is. Point is that any solution is temporary and just more can kicking. Maybe they want to kick the can until Katla blows and they can say the volcano did it.

Should be another bloody opening and the march to sub 1000 continues. They are pushing this down as fast as possible. The trap will be set for a squeeze but catching this squeeze is not the play. Be patient and watch for evidence they turn this. I like to gamble which has resulted in pain before and this market will punish you. Green miner day on a red market day is one sign..lets keep sharp.

""Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the Bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst yourselves, and when you lost, you charged it to the Bank... Beyond question this great and powerful institution has been actively engaged in attempting to influence the elections of the public officers by means of its money...

You tell me that if I take the deposits from the Bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin. Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin. You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the grace of the Eternal God, I will rout you out."

Andrew Jackson on The Second Bank of the United States which was the Central Bank of his day.>

update I May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices fell, capping the biggest weekly loss in five months, as some investors sold to cover losses in other markets by selling bullion.

Commodity prices sank for the fourth consecutive week, and equities tumbled. German business confidence unexpectedly fell after Europe’s debt crisis rattled financial markets, while growth in Europe’s services and manufacturing industries slowed more than economists forecast, figures showed today. The precious metal rallied to a record a week ago.

“Margin requirements continue to pressure prices lower,” Suki Cooper, a Barclays Capital analyst in London, said in a note. Still, long-term interest “remains robust,” she said.

Gold futures for June delivery dropped $12.50, or 1.1 percent, to $1,176.10 an ounce on the Comex in New York. The metal declined 4.2 percent this week, the first slide in a month and the most since the week that ended on Dec. 11.

“There is a lack of confidence in the euro zone, and people may have to shift portfolio assets to safer vehicles” such as gold, said Bernard Sin, head of currency and metals trading at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva. “The market is very oversold. Bargain-hunters may come in and support prices.”

‘Accumulating Gold’

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials yesterday dropped to 247.49, the lowest level since September. Oil futures were down 2.2 percent this week, and the MSCI World Index of shares is headed for a 5 percent weekly drop.

Gold futures rose to a record $1,249.70 on May 14 and are on track for a 10th straight annual gain, the longest winning streak since at least 1920, as investors seek to protect their wealth from Europe’s financial turmoil.

“Long-term-oriented investors are still accumulating gold,” Eugen Weinberg, a Frankfurt-based analyst with Commerzbank AG, wrote in a report yesterday. The recent slump “is probably attributable to profit-taking by speculative investors,” he wrote.

35 comments:

  1. Why is it with all our Technological/Medical/Engineering/Political Geniuses we can't seem to find ONE STATESMEN that Today would whisper, let alone speak, such truth.... re: Andrew Jackson

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  2. He was a true believer. The further society removes itself from the gospel, the less integrity and honesty will count - in its stead, we now find cultural liberalism void of any absolutes with no moral compass for what is right and what is wrong.

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  3. Did I hear 40,000 to 100,000 BARRELS on the news this morning? At worst case that's an Exxon Valdez every 2.5 days, best case per week.

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  4. I can only hope I survive this terrible beatdown....hehehe.......oh wait....I think I wished for a beatdown of my miners......well we got it......hope you enjoyed. I know I bot

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  5. SWC about to take out yesterday's HOD

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  6. I stayed out, took red's advice, only regret is not picking up some ALU. But the trading day is young!!

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  7. Who was saying should'a could'a would'a the other day!!! Picked the wrong am for the Honey Do List! PAL was hot this morning, darn......

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  8. ALU has been Joe's pick for quite some time. I only entered based on my entry point and risk profile for cycle trade on the daily technicals, not an intraday day trade. The entry strategies were pointed out the other day scale in, heavy at the guessed bottom, or heavy when it turns.

    Euro is being stabilized, all the massive short squeezes are only buying time for the technicals to bottom and not allowing a collapse sub 1.15 in the near term. All fiat is sick and physical gold prices will be the measure as they ramp printing presses globally to bail out sovereign debt issues.

    S&P is bottoming out nicely on a daily basis, if you are long you don't want to see a massive squeeze today, holding the line above 1060 and 1040 is all that is required for a few days to a week. A little more puking would be nice to add positions like PBR, GFI, SWC, and PAL (seeing some vultures entering early on the hourly crossover).

    I won't be posting much today, for same reason as yesterday.

    And as for the spill, the oil is not the biggest problem to the nearby ocean it's the natural gas being emitted alongside the oil and depleting the oxygen. So stock up on frozen seafood.

    Enjoy the Ponzi, Drinks are on the Taxpayers and Savers!

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  9. Hey Tom - that's me, all about shoulda woulda coulda!!! ;-)

    Hi red - like I said, the day is still young. Also, I have been hearing things about bacteria and the oxygen levels, this is all so not good on so many levels. Again, I know life is not fair, but that area does not deserve this on top of Katrina.

    Feel better.

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  10. they're holding AUY back ... any particular reason for that?

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  11. No clue....other than they can. Also ANV was NOT hit by sellers..my guess is Soros protects it....the true gold investors don't have to sell their winners.

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  12. now they're letting AUY catch up ... what a game

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  13. SWC filled the first gap at 13.15 next gap at 14.32

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  14. Homer: We've been killing the Gulf slowly for years with the run off from the Mississippi River re: "Dead Zone" never really mentioned but their catching up now....

    http://www.minnpost.com/scientificagenda/2010/05/20/18355/scientists_begin_to_assess_how_gulf_dead_zone_and_oil_spill_might_interact


    shoulda woulda coulda - The story of my life! hehehehe

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  15. GDX gap unfilled at 49.42....and 51.45..

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  16. Does anybody here ever sell covered calls on their core miner positions? Or does nobody hold them long enough to really do that? Looking at SSRI it seems to never really hold above 20 for long so seems like a good time to do just that if it gets there again for a little extra lunch money.

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  17. nothing's a sure bet in this rigged market ... and any pos can have a surprising upside explosion (AAP, GS, ...) ... and betting against miners seems a tad risky. But, if you're covered, why not.

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  18. Looks like as red says they will work the stochastics to the bottom for a few days before a nice turn...too heavy in core to make trades this morning on the gap down so took some swc off the table when it filled the gap ...will wait this out and TRY to hit a bottom play (suckers only)

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  19. Looks like they're puttin AUY right back where it started from......

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  20. yup...but I will buy ANV on a sell off....

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  21. it's distribution ... high volume on the way up, slowly fleecing out retails in a controlled push down. Risky bet (as everything), but as long as S&P stays above 1,040, there's at least a somewhat decent chance the market will be pushed up

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  22. I did say the day is young but its not any more. They did pull it down and I'm still not going in...waiting a few days, I need to be convinced. Curious what the last 15-30 minutes will bring. ALU still trying to hang on!

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  23. distribution involves these type of moves...i will play a final flush (if there is one next week......prolly tues or wed...

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  24. holding ALU, some AUY and PAL but lightened up around S&P 1,080 ... now, I'm almost hoping for a beat down to 1,040 to load up more (even though then, I'll prbly sh*t my pants in fear of an elevator rush to 1,000 :)

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  25. I should be careful when I say final...referring to a near term bounce only....cannot say bottom is in..until bottom is in

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  26. wai kli, you're saying today is NOT the beginning of a multi-year bull market?

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  27. hehehe...well...if they ARE gonna ramp this baby then miners and gold will explode soon....but I don't have a clue...Joe thinks we stay in a lower trading range until last three months of this year then ramp it to glory....Just a guess but its Drokes and Wayalat too. so just be aware a "trading range" can really vary.

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  28. Wow - that was an impressive last 20 minutes, I really didn't think they had it in them, very impressive.

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  29. Agreed quite the finish.... Wonder what the News Cycle will bring this Week End?

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  30. Kli, whenever I post semi-advanced TA I have people try to hack into my system, this has happened the past two nights, and has happened historically on a few occasions, but I brushed it off. I would request that Joe reach out to his military contacts and request that this not occur again. I support you and Joe. Please have some of your main contacts refrain from this, that is not to point the figure at anyone, but the pattern has occurred several times. If anyone has questions, post, it's a free site. I will give you some very profitable trades, patience is key, but it will be in my time when I am convinced my TA is right. I remain a friend of you and Joe as well as your contacts, but I need to remain anonymous. Sorry to bring this up but I had to.

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  31. Analyze, don't be paranoid. The government could give 2 figs about your T/A. Websites and blogs get hacked all the time, pick your favorite impoverished 3rd world country with an abundance of underpaid but highly talented engineers and assume any attacks came from there.

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  32. Just talked to Joe and he said not related to PTB....and says its a random attack.....

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  33. Thank you Kli. Please pass along my thanks to Joe. Ohsnap, paranoid is important, but I respect your opinion, I assume you and Joe are friends, therefore so are you and I. Thanks for the feedback.

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