Tuesday, August 31, 2010

It's not Either OR

Joe talked about this extensively , it's not either Inflation or Deflation. You can have both, deflation in leveraged assets and stagflation in essential cost of goods/services.

[Many readers have pointed out that our long-running discussion of deflation has tended to overlook the impact of price increases, or at least price stability, on essential goods and services. In the essay below, Robert Moore, a frequent contributor to the Rick’s Picks forum, explains how both type of “flations” can co-exist. That he has done so without using the words “inflation” or “deflation” is not merely clever, but persuasive. Read on to sharpen your understanding of how supply and demand interact in an economy where some debtors are being liquidated while others continue to pay their bills and debts. We will mention up-front that although Robert is no “deflationist,” the economic outcome he predicts is exactly what we have long predicted – i.e., a drawn-out drop in the standard of living until all debts have been paid – either by creditors, or debtors. RA]
Ok, I’m going to try to make it through this entire essay only uttering the words “inflation” and “deflation” in just this one sentence. Why, you ask? Because these terms are just too ambiguous for a productive economic discussion. Each word has two unique, and distinct (some might say polar opposite) definitions when used in the context of money supply versus the context of general price levels. This degree of ambiguity makes both terms completely worthless in an analysis of cause and effect. There must, by necessity, be a dedicated term to describe the cause, and another term to describe the effect; otherwise you find yourself drawn into an analogous discussion where explosions are causing explosions, and the end effect is simultaneously identified as the root cause — a rational impossibility.
So, before we go much further, let’s settle in on some fundamental ideologies that I hope we can all agree on:

1) As demand for an item increases in a limited supply scenario, the price for that item (the amount of alternative wealth it would take to procure that item in trade) would rise.

2) As supply for an item increases in a limited demand environment, the price for that item (again, in terms of transferable wealth) would decline.

3) Market supply of durable goods is formed from two sources: a) allocation of capital (time labor, raw material) to yield new production and inventory; and b) re-introduction of existing stock (via resale, recycling, or dishoarding).

4) Market Supply in non-durable goods is formed only by new production, and results only from the capital (time, raw material) required to yield this production.

Many people claim that money follows the same basic supply premise described in number 3 above. I contend that money is different. Money fails to consistently abide by these basic supply-demand arguments (may Ludwig Von Mises have mercy on my soul for making that statement). Debt makes money act differently. In a sound economy, people aspire to accumulate wealth, and to enjoy it. Demand for money is really only a demand for the opportunity to do more work in exchange for greater wealth and a higher standard of living. Only in an unhealthy economy is overall demand for money driven by debt levels, and by the need to stay ahead of rising prices. The more debt that gets introduced into the system, the more money that must, by necessity, circulate through the system in order to maintain this debt.

As Debt Increases…

In a closed system where the money supply is constant, as total debt increases over time, less and less money is left to purchase essential goods and services after whatever increasing amount is necessarily allocated toward servicing the increasing debt. The net effect of this is: a) declining prices in all consumer categories, as more and more of the money has to move toward servicing the debt, leaving less money available to purchase goods and services (both essential and non-essential). The net effect becomes a generally decreasing standard of living for all debtors; and/or b) decreased economic productivity as debtors feel the increasing desperation that they may never conquer their increasing debt, until debt defaults eventually begin releasing money from the service of debt, allowing it to once again purchase essential goods and services.

I believe this is what we saw in the early 1930’s, as the debt level peaked at the end of the Roaring 20s and tipped over into the long deleveraging. In a system where the money supply can be increased at will, increasing debt can be maintained right alongside rising prices, as the remainder money after debt servicing never feels the constraint of the increasing debt service obligations. I believe that is what we witnessed during the later Greenspan/early Bernanke years — increasing debt, offset by increasing money supplies, leading to economic distortion as rising prices provided no warning that there was anything to be worried about with total debt levels. It was like the Roaring 20s on steroids.

The Friedman Argument

So, the argument that rising prices can only result from too much money in the system (the Friedman argument) only operates unequivocally if the system is devoid of (or maintains very little) total debt. So long as credit is easy to come by, prices can rise without there being sufficient money to offset this debt. The question we face today is: Is this really the economic equivalent of the perpetual motion machine? Can continued debt issuance stimulate continued demand for real goods and services in perpetuity?

Alternatively, as the system becomes too heavily burdened with debt, the willful reduction of total money (or credit) available to consumers has two affects:

1) reduction in demand for “non-essentials” as the available money must be used first to service existing debt and to purchase required essentials.

a. As demand for non-essentials declines, so too must prices for these items

b. prices on essentials will fluctuate based on the available remainder money after debt service, but will ultimately remain relative to demand for these essentials (which increases organically with population over time); and/or:

2) increasing debt defaults so that the money that would be used to service or pay down debt can be freed up to purchase essential goods and services.

a. As available money is de-allocated from debt service and allocated toward purchasing essential goods and services, prices in those items must surely rise.

Today’s Conditions

Both of these appear to be what is occurring to varying degrees today. People fortunate enough to have a job and a positive cash flow are prone to fall into category 1, while more desperate people (unemployed, more debt, lower cash flow) probably fall into category 2. Either way, so long as the unemployment and/or debt default rates keep rising, the number of people in both categories will also continue to rise, along with rising prices in consumer essentials; while demand and prices on consumer financed non-essentials can only continue to decline (as there is less and less money to service any new debt, particularly debt of a frivolous nature).

Also interestingly, what we are seeing today is a scenario where decreasing the consumer debt in the system is not necessarily resulting in reduced total debt, as governments have been more than willing to step up to the borrowing window on our behalf. So the slowly declining consumer debt is allowing the increasing remainder money to stimulate rising price levels in essential goods and services (just as we would expect). This could explain the conundrum of rising prices of consumer essentials during what is clearly a debt clearing/deleveraging period, and it might also serve to explain the viewpoints of the few policymaker types who think that raising taxes would be an effective means of fighting rising prices in consumer essentials (damn the standard of living man, this is economic war!)

‘Essentials’ Will Prevail

If total money supply in the system (and therefore total debt in the system, since all fiat currency is simply denominated debt) keeps increasing as the consumer portion of that debt keeps decreasing, then the resultant price increases in essentials could become much more pronounced, until eventually the priorities themselves ultimately trade places, and the available money first finds its way into the procurement of essential goods and services, while whatever remainder money then gets allocated to the service of existing debt.

This is the only inevitability I can see for us, as either path highlighted above (paying down our debt or defaulting outright) will ultimately lead us to the same place, and that place is a lower standard of living for a very broad segment of the productive population. The only alternative is to eliminate debt-based money and replace it with money of inherent, intrinsic value — i.e., money that once again accurately serves as the amount of alternative wealth it would take to procure a given item in trade — a proposition that is not likely to go anywhere since it eradicates the ability of non-productive elitists to manipulate the total money/debt supply in the system at will (a topic for another day, I suppose).

So, I’ve managed to remain true to my promise, and I did not use any “flations” at all in this essay. Let’s see how many of you can challenge my viewpoints, or support your own opposing viewpoints, using similarly unambiguous, cause and effect style language, rather than leaning on whatever flavor of “flation” you prefer to use as your verbal crutch of choice.


Monday, August 30, 2010



"The matter of a uniform discount rate was discussed and settled at Jekyll Island."--Paul M. Warburg1

On the night of November 22, 1910, a group of newspaper reporters stood disconsolately in the railway station at Hoboken, New Jersey. They had just watched a delegation of the nation’s leading financiers leave the station on a secret mission. It would be years before they discovered what that mission was, and even then they would not understand that the history of the United States underwent a drastic change after that night in Hoboken.

The delegation had left in a sealed railway car, with blinds drawn, for an undisclosed destination. They were led by Senator Nelson Aldrich, head of the National Monetary Commission. President Theodore Roosevelt had signed into law the bill creating the National Monetary Commission in 1908, after the tragic Panic of 1907 had resulted in a public outcry that the nation’s monetary system be stabilized. Aldrich had led the members of the Commission on a two-year tour of Europe, spending some three hundred thousand dollars of public money. He had not yet made a report on the results of this trip, nor had he offered any plan for banking reform.

Accompanying Senator Aldrich at the Hoboken station were his private secretary, Shelton; A. Piatt Andrew, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and Special Assistant of the National Monetary Commission; Frank Vanderlip, president of the National City Bank of New York, Henry P. Davison, senior partner of J.P. Morgan Company, and generally regarded as Morgan’s personal emissary; and Charles D. Norton, president of the Morgan-dominated First National Bank of New York. Joining the group just before the train left the station were Benjamin Strong, also known as a lieutenant of J.P. Morgan; and Paul Warburg, a recent immigrant from Germany who had joined the banking house of Kuhn, Loeb

Six years later, a financial writer named Bertie Charles Forbes (who later founded the Forbes Magazine; the present editor, Malcom Forbes, is his son), wrote:

"Picture a party of the nation’s greatest bankers stealing out of New York on a private railroad car under cover of darkness, stealthily hieing hundred of miles South, embarking on a mysterious launch, sneaking onto an island deserted by all but a few servants, living there a full week under such rigid secrecy that the names of not one of them was once mentioned lest the servants learn the identity and disclose to the world this strangest, most secret expedition in the history of American finance. I am not romancing; I am giving to the world, for the first time, the real story of how the famous Aldrich currency report, the foundation of our new currency system, was written . . . . The utmost secrecy was enjoined upon all. The public must not glean a hint of what was to be done. Senator Aldrich notified each one to go quietly into a private car of which the railroad had received orders to draw up on an unfrequented platform. Off the party set. New York’s ubiquitous reporters had been foiled . . . Nelson (Aldrich) had confided to Henry, Frank, Paul and Piatt that he was to keep them locked up at Jekyll Island, out of the rest of the world, until they had evolved and compiled a scientific currency system for the United States, the real birth of the present Federal Reserve System, the plan done on Jekyll Island in the conference with Paul, Frank and Henry . . . . Warburg is the link that binds the Aldrich system and the present system together. He more than any one man has made the system possible as a working reality."

Boring day should be green this week so enjoy....hang in there.....let um play. When the boyz return from the Hamptons next week, then the adults will be at the controls. Until then...enjoy the remainder of your summer and your family..gl

Saturday, August 28, 2010


The real power that controls all money is having a migraine, but don't think for one second they are through with the sheeple. They have maintained the herd for hundreds of years, and I see no evidence that will end here. On the other hand things can be very dicey for the puppet masters....especially once nature steps into the picture.

For years the control of the fiat money has consolidated power into the hands of a few greater than any dynasty in our history, and seemingly no one has a clue how the game even works. With the current economic meltdown and the advent of the net...a few more sheeple have become educated, but overall the masses are completely coralled through a complex system of entertainment and media that confuses, diverts, and divides. Throw into the mix a complete takeover of all three branches of the US government and you have the perfect storm. No one contemplating higher office can even get past first base if they don't pass the sniff test. They must be either ignorant, corruptable , or both. Very few immortals or humans with virtue will enter the arena of politics any longer.

This is where Nature will step in. If we cannot address our failings..our greed..our gluttony...our lack of morality..then nature WILL do it for us. There is no reason to fear this, for you have absolutely no control over it, and neither does the Cabal. It is there only control and it will intercede to restore the balance lost by their runaway power and its abuses.

The outcome of course cannot be predicted precisely, but for certain the day of reckoning is fast approaching for the purveyors of darkness. Will Evil be destroyed? No of course not....for there would be no good without evil...but the balance will be restored. The cabal will still exist and Vegas will still be there for me to visit. Life will go on and we will better for it.

So if it seems that people want "the collapse" to come...well look at it as a good spring cleaning...and life will be better...not perfect...but better. In the meantime prepare. Change your own morality for the better...take the opportunity now. Conserve, protect, and plan. Don't be afraid...remember that doesn't help anyone. Just prepare for nature.

GL next week and watch for follow thru....but don't fall in love with the long side now...September is coming and so are the ill winds of a down cycle. Cash is king for a few weeks .

Friday, August 27, 2010


Delusional deflationists right from the Bank of England MPC, through to the mainstream press for well over a year have pushed the mantra of ongoing debt deleveraging deflation everywhere, everywhere that is than appears in where it counts i.e. the actual INFLATION indices, where inflation is on the rise right across the world as illustrated in the UK by the persistent failure of the Bank of England to control UK inflation that remains above the banks CPI 3% upper limit. Even Greece that really is in an depression is experiencing inflation at above 3%, whilst the US CPI continues to inflate at a more modest 1.2% as summarised below for key world economies

Global CPI Inflation Rates

India 13.7%
Argentina 11.2%
Russia 5.5%
Brazil 4.6%
China 3.3%
UK 3.1%
Australia 3.1%
Euro zone 1.7%
USA 1.2%
Japan -0.7%

This is leaving aside the fact that the official inflation indices tend to under report real inflation rates as the methodologies have been manipulated LOWER over the decades so that governments can continue to stealth tax the population. For instance UK inflation as measured by the RPI which is the recognised measure for UK Inflation is at 4.8%, with my own real inflation rate measurement coming in at 6%. Whilst the U.S. CPI of 1.2% when measured on the basis of E.U. methodology that ignores Bush and Clinton tweaks comes in at 2.4% Then we have Mr Shadowstats who reports U.S. CPI inflation as being at 8.6% rather than the official 1.2%.

I warned of imminent UK and global inflation mega-trend way back in November 2009 (18 Nov 2009 - Deflationists Are WRONG, Prepare for the INFLATION Mega-Trend ), as deflationists fell into the trap the debt deleveraging deflation red herring, that completely missed the big picture that I attempted to elaborate upon in the 100 page Inflation megatrend ebook of January 2010 (FREE DOWNLOAD) that contained the specific trend forecast for UK CPI Inflation of Dec 09 (UK CPI Inflation Forecast 2010, Imminent and Sustained Spike Above 3%) as illustrated by the below graph against which the Bank of England has continually issued statements that high inflation was just temporary and would imminently fall throughout 2010, the reasons for which I touched on recently.

Debt deleveraging deflation completely ignores the fact that we are NOT living in the 1930's, but in a GLOBALISED world economy that is seeing the CONVERGENCE of REAL GDP's where the developing world is EATING up the worlds resources at a faster pace then the west is cutting back on consumption thus DRIVING INFLATION HIGHER whilst at the same time the west is engaged in COMPETITIVE CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS in an attempt to GENERATE NOMINAL GDP GROWTH which has highly inflationary implications.

Governments attempting to inflate nominal GDP's through printing money and near zero interest rates so as to push people towards consumption rather than savings because banks are paying LESS in interest than even the phony official inflation rates. Thus people increasingly seek to hold anything other than negative interest rate paying devaluing fiat currency that can be printed in the trillions at the press of a button. Savers in the UK are realising this as INFLATION EATS a life time of accumulated savings. Workers are realising this as the flow of paper currency raises prices in the shops far greater than the flow of paper into their pay packets that is coming in at an average of 2% against CPI of 3.1%. The paper currency is losing value at a much faster pace than the official inflation statistics, people are waking upto this and will increasingly demand payment in terms of ability to track the price of goods and services not official indices therefore demand wage rises above official inflation indices and thus triggering the dreaded wage price spiral, which as the trend for the convergence of GDP per capital analysis as illustrated by the below graph


Enjoy your day and get ready for Ben's speech in five minutes......should be good for a nice short squeeze.....but the overall trend is down until October mid.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Looking At Upcoming Cycle

Many observers have been wondering if the upcoming 4-year cycle bottom in a few weeks will exert a negative impact on stock prices when the previous 4-year cycle bottom in 2006 barely registered. You may recall that the period from August through December of 2006 saw a stellar performance from the market that left many market technicians perplexed as to why the 4-year cycle bottom left no discernible impact on stock prices at that time. Many of them tried to excuse the lack of downward bias in the broad market in the fall of ’06 by saying that the 4-year cycle would bottom later that year, despite the fact that the 4-year cycle is fixed and always bottoms around the end of the third quarter in late September/early October.
This time around there are some market analysts who insist that downward pressure from the 4-year cycle need not be felt against stocks since the effect of this cycle was negligible in 2006. They also point to the improvement in corporate earnings and currently huge levels of corporate cash as potential barriers against a 4-year cycle correction in September. While the upcoming 4-year cycle bottom need not be a catastrophic event like the 6-year cycle bottom was in 2008, the evidence suggests that the stock market will definitely feel the negative effects of the 4-year cycle bottom as we head into September.
One reason why stocks didn’t decline in the August-September period of 2006 during the previous 4-year cycle bottoming phase was because the Kress 10-year and 12-year cycles were still in the ascending phase. This time around these two cycles are in decline, which means the bigger yearly cycles will be leaning against the market during the vulnerable September period while the 4-year cycle bottoms. Also in the August-September ’06 period the stock market’s quarterly bias was distinctly to the upside. This indicator is an important one to watch when any of the yearly cycles are about to bottom since the quarterly cycle bottoms simultaneously with the yearly cycles in the late September/early October period.

Compounding the problem for stocks heading into the 4-year cycle bottom is the financial media’s fixation on the currently negative employment and economic situation. To take just one instance of the recurring theme the media have been emphasizing in the last several days, the Associated Press wrote the following headline today: “Bad news on homes, goods adds to air of recession.” We’ve also been hearing more and more mention of the term “double dip recession” and this repetition is starting to exert a negative impact on the minds of many market participants. As we talked about in a recent report, whenever market internals are particularly weak and a major cycle is in the final “hard down” phase, negative news and bearish investor sentiment tend to become self-fulfilling and can actually add to the market’s downward tendency as the cycle bottoms. We witnessed this during the credit crash of 2008 and it’s being replayed (albeit on a less emphatic scale) right now. The 5-day and 20-day price oscillators for the SPX are currently reflecting an oversold condition for the S&P, which means short covering could be in evidence in upcoming days. Unless the internal momentum indicators show some drastic improvement between now and early September, however, the stock market will have its work cut out as we head closer to the 4-year cycle bottom.



Do you believe we are safer today than we were 9 years ago??

Do you believe that Sadam had weapons of mass destruction?

Do you believe that Iraq was about to strike the U.S. with a nuclear bomb?

Do you believe that our invasion of Iraq would cost 40 billion?

Do you believe that we paid for the war with the oil we stole from Iraq?

Do you believe that Iraq is better off today than 8 years ago?

Do you believe the Middle East is more stable than 8 years ago?

Do you believe that Bush and Obama have protected the constitution?

Do you believe the Supreme Court is protecting your constitution?

Do you believe in the tooth fairy?

Do you believe your Job is more secure today than 10 years ago?

Do you believe your children will be better off than you?

Do you believe our educational system is in the top 40 in the world?

Do you believe that unemployment is 9.5%?

Do you believe the dollar will remain the world's reserve currency?

Do you believe that Bernanke is working in the people's best interests?

Do you believe that Geithner is working in the people's best interests?

Do you believe there will not be QE 2 and more Stimulus coming this year?

Do you believe the MBS derivatives are worth more than 2cents on the dollar?

Do you believe there is more than 6 degrees difference in the Dems vs the Reps at the highest level?

Do you believe there the mainstream media is "liberal" or "progressive"....for that matter do you believe Faux News is conservative?

Do you believe a conservative should stand for preventing government funding of "stem cell research"?

Do you believe that 1.6 Billion muslims were the enemy of the America ten years ago?

Do you believe that with our aging demographics that we can afford to close our borders to immigrants?

If you believe any of these to be true .....then you might be a redneck.... gl

Wednesday, August 25, 2010


I apologize for lack of entertaining posts, but that is what global economic collapse and Fed manipulation can do to a writer. This is the intent of our gov and its partner the Fed. To turn this giant ship around, naysayers must be crushed. The truth must be masked. Its really not hard to understand from their perspective. Just look at it from any Ponzi perspective. The only thing you have is deception.

One absolutely guaranteed source of cash for the ponzi is the short train. You can fully expect another nice squeeze of the shorts to come very soon. Its the only way traders can make money is to squeeze the dips and short the rips. Both rips and dips will be maintained for over a year. Just look at the Bollingers....its beautiful. This is a traders year. But even if you aren't a gap trader or a day trader...you can make money in this market...Look at SGY NBR right now as adds. Look at SGG watta mthfkr.
DTO...was great. SGG and DTO were oversold.

SGY and NBR can be started with a position here. Gold is still in a shorter term never never land......so be cautious. Hold a small core of miners and keep at least 50% cash. gl


update I........

History is being made. The American public has never been so nervous, perhaps fearful of something dreadful and imminent. The global monetary system is crumbling. The typical stimulus has failed to jumpstart the USEconomy. The 20 months of near 0% short-term official interest rate has failed to revive the moribund US housing market. The phony FASB accounting rules has failed to accomplish anything except a stay of execution for the big US banks, which do not lend much. In fact, the US banks are largely dead entities showing enough life for to receive USGovt largesse aid. Witness the failure of the US financial sector. Witness the climax chapter of failure for the Fascist Business Model. The US banker brain trust, which possesses only a modicum of economic wisdom, analytic prowess, or foresight, finds itself in a desperate corner. Their talk of an Exit Strategy in the last several months was summarily dismissed as nonsense, propaganda, and wishful thinking by the Jackass here on a consistent irrefutable basis. The US Federal Reserve is ready to embark on the second round of Quantitative Easing. The monetization of US$-based bonds of many types will be done on a second initiative, on cue. Here is the irony, the stupidity, the insanity, the recklessness, the tragedy. What failed, they will do again, maybe even bigger! At risk is global confidence and trust, hardly a zero cost item.

The urgency of the QE2 Launch will be made quite clear by the Hologram Leaders occupying positions of power, after they digest the latest housing data. The July existing housing sales fell by 27.2% in a single month. The July new home sales fell by 12.4% in concert. Few analysts operating with USGovt service badges anticipated that the empty-headed home buyer credit of $8000 would rob forward sales and leave an autumn vacuum in home demand. It did. Check out the silver price, which touched $19 today on Wednesday. And at $1240, the gold price is poised to make new highs any day. My near-term targets are $23.5 for silver and $1300 for gold. Energy prices are soft but precious metals prices are strong. Think heterogeneity!

The QE2 is pure cancer within the monetary body. Foreign creditors are walking away, making distance from the USTreasurys, and especially the USAgency Mortgage Bonds. The USFed and USDept Treasury are therefore being isolated. Their USTreasury auctions are often disguised failures, but with the benefit of a falling US stock market, the bond demand has risen. The cancer of QE2 cannot be emphasized enough. My forecast a few months ago was for NO Exit Strategy implemented. The USFed balance sheet will NOT be reduced. Interest rates will NOT be permitted higher. My forecast was for an embarrassing About-Face in policy, and a hasty desperate announcement and implementation of a powerful new round of Quantitative Easing. We are seeing it unfold, exactly as forecasted. In fact, my call is for ZIRP and QE, the cancerous twins of Zero Interest Rate Policy and its Printing Pre$$ twin, to become permanent residents of the White House and USFed, an incredible pox, blemish, and badge of shame to the nation. The twins scream rot and ruin. Thnx ...Jackass

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

One of The Few Who Understands Liberty update I

Ron Paul breaks with GOP on New York mosque: The opposition ‘is all about hate and Islamaphobia.’

Ron-Paul In strongly-worded statement released today, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), perennial GOP presidential candidate strongly condemned his “fellow conservatives” for opposing the proposed Park 51 Islamic community center near Ground Zero. The outcry over the mosque “implies that Islam alone was responsible for the 9/11 attacks,” Paul said, explaining that the rights of minorities must be protected, even when it’s unpopular. Ultimately, Paul argues that the opposition to the mosque “is all about hate and Islamaphobia,” stoked by “neo-conservatives” who “never miss a chance to use hatred toward Muslims to rally support for the ill conceived preventative wars”:

Many fellow conservatives say they understand the property rights and 1st Amendment issues and don’t want a legal ban on building the mosque. They just want everybody to be “sensitive” and force, through public pressure, cancellation of the mosque construction.

This sentiment seems to confirm that Islam itself is to be made the issue, and radical religious Islamic views were the only reasons for 9/11. If it became known that 9/11 resulted in part from a desire to retaliate against what many Muslims saw as American aggression and occupation, the need to demonize Islam would be difficult if not impossible. [...]

It is repeatedly said that 64% of the people, after listening to the political demagogues, don’t want the mosque to be built. What would we do if 75% of the people insist that no more Catholic churches be built in New York City? The point being is that majorities can become oppressors of minority rights as well as individual dictators. Statistics of support is irrelevant when it comes to the purpose of government in a free society—protecting liberty. [...]

This is all about hate and Islamaphobia.

Paul is the first national Republican leader to break with the party and call out the undercurrents of Islamaphobia in the opposition to the mosque. He is also likely to offend some of his own supporters, as many in the tea party movement have come out in strong opposition to the Park 51 project. (HT: Glenn Greenwald)


update I thanks homer......unbelievable that we even have sheeple so gullible....pathetic......


Monday, August 23, 2010


Its gonna get better....hmmmm...when?...not sure...but you can't be all doom and gloom if you want to come out of this. Here is a read that you need to think about.

know unemployment is 10%. But that means almost 90% are employed. Consumers are saving more. So adjust. Figure out what your New Normal looks like.

The '70s were a bitch. I woke up many times in the middle of the night with real pains in my stomach wondering whether to pay the rent or make payroll. So did a lot of people. But look at all the new companies that came out of that era and changed everything: Microsoft, Apple, Intel, etc. Cell phones. The internet. The list is long.

Yes, we have to make our way in this Muddle Through World. It will be challenging, but I can almost guarantee you that when we do get through there will be other challenges. If it was easy everybody could do it and there would be no money in it. Embrace the challenge!

I asked one of my really close (36 years) friends and business associates last year how his business was doing. "We are doing great!" he said. That was not the answer I was expecting. "Why? How?" I asked.

"Well, most of our competitors have folded. We survived and got the business."

Ultimately, that is how we get out of this. A hundred million families and millions of businesses figuring it out, learning how to adapt to the New Normal. Sadly, some of them won't make it. But most of us will!

As I said, I am a serial entrepreneur. I have a friend who designs and oversees large teams of programmers of really robust analytic software, very cutting-edge stuff. She is a winner, and I am backing her (I know nothing about software but the rule is, invest in people!). We'll see how it goes, but my bet is that in a few years there will be a lot of people getting jobs because we take on some risk now.


This is a trading blog also....so don't lose focus on your core of miners here...do not be heavy on them. Look at NBR SGY may be getting ready for a run here with seasonal nat gas...SGG is a muther....i'm out now so its gonna really rip now. LLL is either a hold or a trade here....either is fine. gl

update I.... nice vid from WCs. from an unlikely source


Sunday, August 22, 2010


Don't underestimate the old man.....

Last week I mentioned that the US is basically monetizing their debt, and I suppose it’s a good thing since China is now buying less US debt and even selling it two months in a row now. Someone’s got to pick up the tab from reckless, non-sensical government spending!

You got to love the happy talk in the article link above as they say; “Demand for U.S. government debt is so strong lately that not even an apparent slowdown in China's appetite for it can stop the rally in bonds.”

Who’s buying it then? It’s the issuers. Who does the author really think he’s fooling?

Sadly, more people than I’d like to admit.

China is picking up their buying of European bonds though as a means to diversify. They have no choice. They are buying as many physical assets as they can without tipping their hat to everybody, but they can’t spend all their money on acquisitions etc, so bonds are the way to go, and they must diversify.

China even doubled their holdings of South Korean bonds this year!

Roger Clemens was Indicted this past week for lying to Congress when he denied using steroids. He could face up to 30 years in prison and face a $1.5 million fine.

Really now. Who did Roger hurt, and do we really have time, money and energy to spend on this? How about looking into some of the fallacies Bernanke has shot us and continues to.

It angers me to see this waste when there are real serious, systemic issues that should be dealt with.

As our yearly summer festival winds down, it marks the end of summer and temperatures usually take a noticeable turn lower almost immediately. In fact even this morning has a chill to the air, but it’ll be hot like summer again by 10am.

As the end of summer lurks and most vacations wind down the FDIC is back hard to work as there were eight biggest losers this week to add to the years growing list of failed banks.
A major takeover offer of a fertilizer company was announced this week and the fertilizer company promptly rejected the offer. They are now looking for a white knight in order to benefit shareholders. The company is looking to China, with their huge cash reserves and large and increasing need for fertilizer. The bid expires mid-October and there will be fireworks between then and now.

This article is just scraping the surface. New Jersey settled claims of misleading investors in a $26 billion municipal bond sale by hiding the underfunded status of their two largest pension plans. This is the first time the SEC has sued a state. There will be many more to come I assure you, or the Feds will just shut down that division of the SEC since the Federal Governments books will be next once municipal ones become “acceptable” to investigate. Now that would be a show!

Eton Park’s hedge fund joined Paulson and Soros by buying a large amount of the GLD ETF, $800 million in fact. The big boys are really starting to get gold fever big time. But as I warn, buying GLD is useless to the small investor since it doesn’t not necessarily add to demand and decrease supply. The story is different for the big guys though.

While researching the GLD perspective some time ago I found that what’s termed a “basket” can in fact be redeemed for physical bullion. A basket consists of 100,000 shares.

That only equals $12 million as of Friday. So the new investor, Eton Park, could in theory redeem 66 baskets. Each basket would remove 10,000 oz of physical gold from the markets.

Now here is where my thinking takes a twist.

George Soros is smart. In fact much smarter than he lets on when talking about his investments. He usually talks on the first level, and thinks much deeper.

He’s busted currencies before, namely the pound in the Black Wednesday ordeal in 1992.

What’s Gold?

Gold is the ultimate and only enduring currency.

He knows what GATA, and my readers know. Gold is traded on a fractional basis which means real physical supply is much less than the amount of paper Gold traded.

If he were to, or even threaten to, cash in his 52 baskets (5.2 million shares) it would spark other large GLD investors to do the same.


Saturday, August 21, 2010


BREAKING NEWS ALERT......Swedish authorities have issued an arrest warrant for Wikileaks founder Julian Assange on suspicion of molestation and rape.

The warrant was issued late yesterday, said a spokeswoman at Sweden's prosecutors' office in Stockholm.

She said Assange should contact the Swedish police for questioning about the accusations of molestation and rape in two separate cases "so that he can be confronted with the suspicions".

Assange has denied the charges, which were first reported by the Swedish tabloid Expressen, on Wikileaks' Twitter account.

He implied that they were linked to the release by the whistleblowers' website of a huge cache of US military records on the Afghan war, which were published in collaboration with the Guardian and two other newspapers.

Assange wrote: "The charges are without basis and their issue at this moment is deeply disturbing."

Earlier postings on the Twitter account implied the accusations were part of a dirty tricks campaign against the Wikileaks founder, who has been strongly criticised by the Pentagon.

"Expressen is a tabloid; No one here has been contacted by Swedish police. Needless to say, this will prove hugely distracting.

"We were warned to expect 'dirty tricks'. Now we have the first one."

Last month Wikileaks released around 77,000 secret US military documents.

Ya gotta love this game........;-)


update I......charges dropped already....heheheheh....watta game

Friday, August 20, 2010


Just more noise as gold consolidates. We might get the long awaited beat down by October, but it looks less likely to me...but I can hope....keep your core here. I am 70% cash....this is getting really ugly behind the scenes. QE is already in force and will get extreme shortly. Then PMs will start moving hard.....hopefully November....and not before.

Gold may decline in New York as a stronger dollar cuts investment demand and as prices near a seven-week high curb physical purchases.

The dollar climbed to a five-week high against the euro after European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said the ECB should keep stimulus measures in place through the end of the year. Bullion usually moves inversely to the greenback. Gold reached $1,239.50 an ounce yesterday and is trading 2.6 percent below a record. Holdings in the biggest gold-backed exchange- traded fund rose for a third day yesterday.

“The slightly stronger dollar is weighing on gold,” said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc in London. “With gold at these prices above $1,220 an ounce, demand is slowing quite a bit” from physical buyers, he said.

Gold futures for December delivery lost as much as $5.80, or 0.5 percent, to $1,229.60 an ounce and traded at $1,233.20 at 8 a.m. on the Comex in New York. The metal is up 1.4 percent this week, heading for a third weekly gain. Bullion for immediate delivery in London was little changed at $1,231.50.

The ECB’s Weber told Bloomberg Television it would be “wise” to keep full allotment in weekly, monthly and three- month refinancing operations until after the end of 2010.

Gold has climbed 12 percent this year, heading for a 10th annual gain and outperforming equities, as investors sought a refuge from the European debt crisis and on signs that global growth may be losing momentum. Bullion futures reached a record $1,266.50 an ounce on June 21 and have gained 4.2 percent the past three weeks.

Back to Recession?

European and U.S. equities slid yesterday after employment and manufacturing data heightened concern that the country may be tipping back into recession. Reports next week may show U.S. home sales fell, Japanese export growth slowed and German business weakened, economists said. Asian and European stocks and U.S. futures fell today.

update I from Peter Cooper A recent report from Credit Suisse has warned that wage inflation in China is going to put pressure on the profit margins of major Western brands dependent on Chinese manufacturing over the next 12 months.

Over the past decade Chinese manufacturing salaries have risen from $1,000 to $3,900, according to The Daily Telegraph yesterday. But a series of strikes at key factories have sent wage inflation soaring to 25-30 per cent this year.

Inflation returns

The low cost of manufacturing in China has been the secret of low inflation in the West in the 2000s. That deflationary force is gone. This is inflation at a very basic level. Eventually manufacturers will have to pass this higher cost on with higher prices or inflation.

Now we hear the selling of gold by Chinese banks is being liberalized. The Chinese are not immune to inflation either and will want to buy protection in the form of gold, the one currency that cannot be printed.

At the same time investors in the West are waking up to the likely return of retail price inflation and what are they buying? Well, also gold for the same reason as the Chinese.

You do have to ask, where did that Chinese inflation come from? The answer is clearly the huge stimulus of historic proportions – actually half of GDP in six months – that ’saved’ China from the global financial crisis.

It is an economic axiom that too much money chasing too few goods will cause inflation, and this is what happened in China, causing workers to strike for higher pay. This is the classic wage-price spiral of inflation.

Gold prices

Of course, it will not only be gold prices that rise with inflation. Interest rates will have to go up to keep bond holders earning a reasonable return. Cash will buy less and therefore be worth less though not worthless.

House prices can fall in real terms in this environment, with interest rates rising, even if nominal prices remain static or fall only slightly.

It is really a matter of going back to the 1970s. Then it was oil price inflation sparking retail price inflation. Now it is the Chinese money supply expansion of last year.

Thursday, August 19, 2010


OR....why my mommy told me to buy gold n silver.

The London Gold Fix is conducted by the representatives of five bullion banks: HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Scotia Mocatta, Societe Generale, and Barclays. The “fix” is no longer conducted in an actual meeting but by conference call. The bullion banks’ representatives communicate with their trading floors and with each other during the conference call to find the clearing price at which all buying interest and all selling interest is balanced. When this price is determined the price is said to be “fixed”. This is exclusively a physical gold market activity. It is balancing the number of bars of gold for sale with the number of bars demanded for purchase at a particular price.

It follows that if buying and selling were matched at the AM Fix price but then the PM Fix price is lower, then significantly more gold is being offered for sale compared to demand at the time of the PM fixing. The trend of the cumulative intraday change in Figure 1 shows that the selling into the PM Fix is manipulative because it has consistently countered the primary trend of the market and has proportionately increased as the gold price has increased. The PM Fix is the target for manipulation (price suppression in this case) because it stands as the global bench mark price at which physical gold trading is done until the following AM Fix, -- that is, a period of 19 ½ hours each day.

Though the official London Gold Pool disbanded in 1968 when it suffered massive outflows of bullion trying to frustrate free market forces that were manifesting themselves as insatiable demand for the metal, someone is now operating, albeit covertly, a second London Gold Pool. However, what I will show unequivocally in this article is that this “Second London Gold Pool” is about to suffer the exact same fate as the first one did.

This is not a matter of traders selling into the market to take profits when the price reaches an interim top, because the selling is consistently forcing the PM Fix price to be lower than the AM Fix even during price rallies. The selling is clearly conducted such that when considered over several days buying between the fixes is not allowed to be more dominant than selling. It can be seen that after each selling climax buying emerges which carries the cumulative intraday change back toward its long-term negative trend line (solid blue line). I would speculate that at least part of this buying is made by the same entities that did the selling.


update I from J Phillips Gold held up overnight in Asia, then in London traders tried to push it down a couple of Dollars. This did not work and just ahead of the Fix gold was trading at $1,228, at which it fixed. As New York opened it became clear that the U.S. wanted more gold and the price rose through $1,230 to hold $1,235 in New York, ahead of the afternoon Fix.

The mood in the market is strong and unaffected by the slight moves in currencies [The €1: $1.2895]. Gold investors nervously look at the currency markets and fear that they will dominate the gold price. So, it is good to remind one and all that the U.S. Dollar is like a tree trunk, with all the other currencies branches springing out from the tree. There will come a time when the rot in the trunk will threaten other currencies. Behind the scenes moves are being made to limit collateral damage as much as possible. The have to be made with minimum damage to global trade and foreign exchange markets, so as to preserve the stability of the global economy.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010


1) Iraq war over....Lie..over 50K troops still on the ground and over 100K "private contractors"
2) Iraq had WMDs....Lie ...now proven beyond any doubt after being told by numerous objective sources before the war there was NO EVIDENCE
3) Iraq was about to strike with nuclear weapons....Lie Husband of Valerie Plame, Joe Wilson (CIA himself) showed the Yellow cake uranium was a neocon lielielie. His wife a high level operative was then outed by Cheney.
4) That the war would be over in 6months and all troops home Lie.....
5) That the war would be entirely paid for by the oil stolen by us.....LIARS...it was stolen but never to pay for the war.
6) That there was torturing going on by Sadam Hussein on a woman that came forth and related her entire story only to be proven completely false....lie btw Sadam tortured people..who do you think taught him....hehhehe
7) That the war was not about regime change lie
8) Later....the war WAS about regime change lie
9) That we would provide free elections and a stable government...lie...since their last election a year ago..they still have not seated their government....just chaos.
10) That we would have minimal Civilian collateral damage...lie...now estimates show that over 750 thousand civilians have been killed.
11) That we would suffer minimal casualties and be welcomed as saviors....7 years later and over 4000 american deaths later...and 18000 wounded...Lie Lie Lie
12) The war would cost nothing to 80 billion high end....2 TRILLION.....again LIE
13) The war ended on May 2 2003 on the infamous deck of an aircraft carrie with George W Bush posing in his tight fly suit around his little balls (but larger than his brain)...announcing MISSION ACCOMPLISHED......lie lie lie
14) That we were invading Iraq because they harbored the Al Quaeda that attacked us on 9/11...Cheney still keeps telling that one...lie lie
15) Colin Powells famous UN Speech on the "mushroom cloud" that he now truthfully says was .....lie
16) That we would make the world and us a safer place if we invaded Iraq...sure...they all hate us now...once you have had your family slaughtered for the crime of having a "dictator" who by the way WE put into power...all is forgiven.....right...lie
17) That we don't torture...can't even go there.....lie
18) That we would make Iraq a better place ...hehehe hell they have electricity only 2 hours a day in Bahgdad to this day....lie
19) We are there to create democracy.....lie
I could go on and on but seriously.....does it really matter. You can believe the truth...or you can stick your head in the sand.


By Michael Pento, Senior Economist & Vice President of Managed Products, Euro Pacific Capital.

A morbidly obese gentleman labored into Dr. Hayek's office suffering from severe chest pain. The patient also complained that he was unable to consume his usual 10,000 calorie-per-day diet; in fact, he was feeling so sick that he could barely scarf down 9,000 calories. He plead that his love for food remained as strong as ever, but his body just wasn't keeping up with his demands.

After having a thorough look at the patient, the good doctor could not find anything wrong outside of the patient's extreme portliness. After a moment of reflection, he delivered to his patient a troubling diagnosis. He explained that the chest pain stemmed from the strain the patient's 500lb body was putting on his heart, and that the lack of appetite was his body's attempt to protect itself from this imbalance. Dr. Hayek's prescription was simple: the patient had to dramatically reduce his consumption while undertaking a moderate exercise program, with the goal of losing 250lbs as quickly and safely as possible. Dr. Hayek was aware that it would be a physically painful and emotionally difficult process for the man, but it was the only way to avert a life of suffering - or even a heart attack.

Unfortunately, our patient rebelled against such an austere program. He had grown very fond of his high-calorie and high-fat diet and didn't think that now, when he was already depressed from dealing with all these ailments, was a good time to deny himself the few pleasures he had left. In his opinion, the doc's prescription was just too simplistic. He thought there just had to be a way to have his cake and eat it - frequently. So, he waddled out of Dr. Hayek's office as fast as he could, shouting over his shoulder: "I'm getting a second opinion!"

The overweight gentleman sauntered across the street, where he found the office of Dr. Keynes. He told the new doctor about his acute chest pain and lack of appetite, and complained about the previous doctor's "heartless" prescription. After a cursory examination, Dr. Keynes rendered his diagnosis: the patient's condition did not stem from the fact that his gigantic frame was causing undo strain on his heart; instead, the doctor concluded, the patient's chest pain was merely causing a temporary lack of hunger. Furthermore, Dr. Keynes argued, the stress of cutting weight at the present time would certainly prove detrimental to the man's already weak heart. Therefore, his prescription was for the 500lb man to each as much as possible, as quickly as possible. Anything less might cause the man to suffer a heart attack, he noted. Now the doctor did concede that, at some point in the distant future, it might be a good idea for the man to shed a few pounds. But for the present, the most import thing to do would be to consume as much as he could stomach.

The patient left Dr. Keynes' office with a broad smile. After gorging at an all-you-can-eat buffet, he momentarily forgot about his chest pain. It looked like he had found his solution; except, a week later, he died.


Tuesday, August 17, 2010


Watta country. In all of my years I can honestly say I never believed we could revert in collective intelligence. It certainly disproves the Darwinian Theory of Natural Selection. We are devolving.....not evolving. In the sixties millions protested the Military/Banker complex war in Vietnam. People were outraged and on the streets as their children were being drafted to kill and die in a war that was being fought for colonialism/capitalism. Of course we were told it was to stop the "evil" spread of Communism. Hehehehe. Oh my can we be any more gullible. Just look at that region now if you have any doubts. Vietnam has a flourishing GDP and we are drowning in our corrupt swill. Of course we did manage to dump toxic poisons and millions of tons of bombs on them to prove our point, before they eventually beat the true Satan. Golly gee...who could that have been.

Don't forget the real "evil" monster back then....tada....RED CHINA. Another kinard for mass sheeple consumption. Did you buy it like everyone else did then? Or worse. You may still be buying that lie. Please tell me you aren't that gullible. While we are still playing games in this country with diversions of the sheeple (Mosque in New York) the Chinese are beating our brains out as they continue to take world dominance in manufacturing and growth. Their infrastructure continues to grow and ours continues to decay. They have high speed rail...We have Disneyland Monorail. I love it. An amusement park has rail.

The Yen and the Yang. Yes...we are indeed owned. I recall vividly the outrage in many circles that a Catholic would be president in 60 and how the separation of church and state was threatened. 50 years later our country that has religious tolerance as its very foundation is trying to destroy what our forefathers gave their lives for. What a sick fkn bunch of fascists we have in this country. Newt Gingrich...leading the charge of moral outrage....OMG toooooo fkn funny. EVERYONE in Georgia knew he was cheating on his wife when he lead the charge against Clinton. Michael Bloomberg......a Jew.....stood on the right moral ground and publicly supported the right of an Islamic center to be be built TWO BLOCKS from ground zero....I HAVE BEEN THERE. Have you? You cannot even see ground zero from the site. Gimmee a break. gl

update I....


update II....jd's post.


update III..... must see


Monday, August 16, 2010


Here is an excerpt for you to peruse...please enjoy the entire link....bottom line is we are in trouble. The bond bubble is growing so look for the air to come out of this in a couple of months in a big way. NO COLLAPSE of the bond marke Just a nice move to equities...

Q: Earlier this month you published a special edition to your SineScope publication entitled, "The Grand Bull's Terminal Years: 2009-2011." It contained an ominous warning for the years 2012-2014. Please elaborate.
A: The term "Grand" was included since it refers to the composite of all the cycles. Its duration is 120 years and I refer to it as the revolutionary cycle. A revolution occurs with each cycle bottom which changes the three basic institutions that govern our lives: political, economic and social. The first revolution in this country was political since it involved war in the 1770s when America was freed from an occupied to an independent territory. The second occurred in the mid 1890s when America transcended from an agricultural-based to a manufacturing-based economy. This was an economic revolution. The third 120-year revolutionary cycle is scheduled to bottom in 2014. To complete the third institution, the upcoming Grand cycle bottom should be a social revolution. The final three years prior to the bottom are ominous, historically, for they include a depression and a devastating war. Since "history always repeats itself" and there is yet to be a precedent to violate this, the years 2012, '13 and '14 have grave, broad-based implications. The various potential is too lengthy to discuss now but they are discussed in the Special Edition.
Q: If an investor shares your conclusions based on the 120-year revolutionary cycle, what is the best strategy for the years ahead?
A: The answer is very simple and straightforward. Liquidate all conventional equities on strength in 2011. Notwithstanding the negative potential that exists during 2012-2014, funds can be 100% committed and produce gainful returns. However, the old generals who have fought the old wars during the past half century with the "buy and hold for the long term" philosophy will have to change their mindset. I have difficulty with this approach, for long term we're all dead. It appears that this is a rationalistic euphemism for the inability to manage and avoid interim risk, thereby awaiting the market to recover the investor's loss.
Q: What about income investors?
A: If current income is required, AAA rated quality must be employed but maximum maturity can be considered? The equity segment need include only three vehicles in the 2012-2014 time period: S&P index inverse dynamic funds, gold exchange traded funds (ETFs), and S&P index options. The percentage weighting between debt and equity and within equity can be determined by individual risk/return positions.


Saturday, August 14, 2010

Respect For Truth And Honesty

I have always respected those who speak the TRUTH as far as power and here it is, read both pages:



Turning the ship analogy against Plato in this way is a persuasive move, but it ultimately does not take care of Plato's challenge. For if it is plausible to argue that voters may be too uninformed to decide on the best means to reach a certain goal, then it is also plausible to argue that they may not be informed enough to choose the right ends. A serious lack of knowledge can manifest itself not only in the way a state is run, but also in the choice of destinations. What can and has to be criticized is not only a citizenry's possible ignorance of the measures that a government might take to reach certain goals, but also their ideas and expectations about where their society ought to go--what goals they want to reach as a commonwealth. The democratic election of a leader who plans to replace a capitalist democracy with a fascist warfare state, for example, is a case in point. Hitler, it is worth remembering, was elected by a democratic vote, and it is surely not irrelevant to ask whether those who voted for him did not suffer from an unacceptable degree of ignorance and lack of political education.

The democratic decision to engage in a series of expansionist wars, as sanctioned by the Athenian Assembly, is a similar case in point. What Plato witnessed as a young man was not a lack of understanding of the technicalities of governing on the part of the demos, but rather poor judgment in the choice of major goals. Major political destinies can be judged in terms of wisdom, feasibility, logic, moral responsibility, and other criteria that make the general intellectual competence of an electorate a relevant and urgent issue. It is obviously not a foregone conclusion that whatever the majority decides is also the best—or even acceptable. Both short-term and long-term expectations and decisions of a democratic polity may be quite thoughtless, ill-advised, stupid, illusory, dangerous, or outright insane. In spite of the above critique of the ship analogy, in other words, Plato's challenge to the idea of democracy stands.

Granted, then, that sound political decisions concerning means as well as ends require not only reliable knowledge of such things as economics, geography, sociology, and military strategy, but also something like moral competence, the question arises as to how this sort of preparedness can be acquired. Plato's emphatic answer is: by a sound and systematic education. No good government—democratic or otherwise


Friday, August 13, 2010


Because that is the game.....extend and pretend. There is little choice as we push out the end. Promises must be kept to the politician puppets by their masters. So the game is to continue the backdoor stimulus to the markets through the various mortgage and monetization programs. They will speak in "triplespeak" , since doublespeak may be interpretable....but the end game is the same....keep lipstick on the pig until 2012....then clean the sheeple out. Game over. Paper asset holders are toast.

Those of us foolish enough to play this game and believe their is a remote possiblity that we will be smart enough to avoid this slaughter are welcome to stay in the game with this blog, but be aware if it starts to unwind earlier than 2012...it could be all over for your accounts. I feel you are safe until then, but social mood is necessary to watch. As long as the cabal controlled media feed the sheeple their gruel and tell them the constant littany of lies then mood should hold awhile longer.

After all the sheeple now think that Obama 47% started TARP vs 36% Bush....hehehe ( I wonder who the remaining 17% think started Tarp) So the confusion and divisiveness of the cabal remains intact with moderates and extremist fighting one another as the gov and cabal fleeces you blind.

I for one would like another cabal war on terrorism. The war on terrorism has been one of my best cash generators....see LLL for cash cow (I will not go into specifics, but long term good place)...But of course the need to keep our centurions in the Middle East is vital for the Military Industrial Complex (MIC). This is certainly something that all good sheeple support for the safety of our country. 800 military bases in 125 countries...pissing off every religious, ethnic, and nationalistic country can only be good for my ultimate goal. Of course the trillions to support this is absolutely necessary......just look at how safe we feel. Wait until these poor troops eventually come home to a wrecked economy and find the cabal could give a shit about them and the get 7.50/hr jobs flippin burgers....and the food stamp card for their wife limits at 200/mo. Hmmmmm lets see now.....tens of thousands of hardened explosive experts coming home to that mess. No wonder O wants to keep them over there.....

Enough of this doom. No one really wants to hear about that. Lets party. Trading SGG GG NBR SGY SSRI ...looking for DTO trade but out. ANV gone also... Have some EGO and GFI....and several others that are lesser plays....will advise caution long until later this year .....play safe and remember....its ok to be a sheep, just don't let them give you a haircut in November.....winters comin'


updateI If you are a PM trader...before you panic from your core here...read up.


Thursday, August 12, 2010


That should piss off the PTB, so expect water on that fire quickly. My guess is the Chinese are buying the PM and creating a problem. Not to mention the Euro-trash that are suddenly back in the game after a few weeks of thinking their currency had some pop. I guess that lil Spain announcement has spooked the fiat traders. Look for the ups and downs and don't get caught too far on one side of the boat. This is only a game and not intended for those who have sensitivity or a conscience...don't play with your real money and make sure that you don't take the free drinks.

Short term still remain nervous on gold but have my core to trade with on the channel if they push it up....Like many here have said....will wait for the fear push toward 980 to reload.....but. Ya neva know.

Reuters) - Spot gold prices extended gains on Thursday after U.S. weekly unemployment data reinforced concern among investors over the outlook for the world's largest economy, prompting a fresh wave of safe-haven buying.

At 1241 GMT (8:41 a.m. EDT) gold was bid at $1,213.50 an ounce, up from $1,197.00 an ounce late in New York on Wednesday. Gold for December delivery on COMEX was last up $17.20 at $1,217.0 an ounce.

The U.S. Labor Department said the number of people filing for unemployment benefit for the first time rose unexpectedly to its highest level in nearly six months, while the previous week's data was also revised upwards.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010


Next course.......PANIC. Its always encouraging when a good plan comes together. Looks like our proprietary intel prediction yesterday was correct.....today its pure blood for the markets. People will be leaping out of tall biuldings in Wall Street today. Fortunately for them they will be landing on their bonuses they will be recieving this december when they give the sheeple one last bone for the road.

Observing the morning business show pundits trying to spin the real economy as it sinks into the ocean of debt, becomes more surreal everyday. It remininds me of the real estate agents in the resort area I live trying to tell me five years ago why this area would never sustain a housing downturn.

Nothing is straight down but eventually we are going there. It will be heralded by the collapse of the longer term bond prices......when you see that crack begin....don't be in this market. It will be the beginning of the end. That is when all the boyz have moved out into the assets to sustain their powere.....GOLD and Natural resources land.

We need fear in the interim to drag in the shorts. So be very careful the next two months.....it can be rollercoaster eith a bias to the downside. Have your core of miners and hold heavy cash for the miners beatdown (if it comes). The really smart players are in physical gold and laughing at us. have fun gl

Tuesday, August 10, 2010


Had to update Dirksen to keep up

Is it really wise to hedge our holdings with physical gold? Yes, people with real brains are asking these silly questions. Maybe this ongoing rush to gold is being copied by those silly ones that actually believe there are buried bodies hidden below those beautiful lawns we call cemeteries. And this is why our ultimate financial crash will eventually fall on top of our pour heads. So many believe there just ain’t no acorns hovering over our heads ready to drop.

How about what the masters have to say about the future of the direction of gold? A lot of people don’t really understand these people as I do. These are a devout, religious group of people made much as the Amish. I understand that many of the Rothschild’s are going back to their roots and establishing vegetable and dairy farms in upper Pennsylvania country. I believe the major difficulty is the sects vow to with hold from any future use of soap in the future.

But God will bless these wonderful people as He always has. The Rothschild’s do make the market in gold. A humble people. Made strong in the ghettoes of ancient Germany. Their life style has shown a proven disdain of worldly riches and massive wealth and power. And the family has a great respect for paper choosing its use very conservatively except in places of need such as the Federal Reserve Bank. Time folk quit picking on them and started trying to understand them.

David Rockefeller or a much younger Rothschild will be the tar baby (Tar Czar?). And of course the conspiracy goes that just as soon as they get that monopoly on all that tar all of us are going to become “tar babies.”

Physical gold will continue to be an excellent insurance as the Fed crashes the US dollar. Its not as important how high gold may temporarily rise as the knowledge that it is going to maintain its rate of value while the stock market crashes.

Fear and greed ultimately are the defining events controlling the price of gold. The Chinese are continuing to play an ever greater role in the gold market. According to the World Gold Council Chinese gold consumption is expected to about double in another 10 years.
Is it really wise to hedge our holdings with physical gold? Yes, people with real brains are asking these silly questions. Maybe this ongoing rush to gold is being copied by those silly ones that actually believe there are buried bodies hidden below those beautiful lawns we call cemeteries. And this is why our ultimate financial crash will eventually fall on top of our pour heads. So many believe there just ain’t no acorns hovering over our heads ready to drop.How about what the masters have to say about the future of the direction of gold? A lot of people don’t really understand these people as I do. These are a devout, religious group of people made much as the Amish. I understand that many of the Rothschild’s are going back to their roots and establishing vegetable and dairy farms in upper Pennsylvania country. I believe the major difficulty is the sects vow to with hold from any future use of soap in the future.But God will bless these wonderful people as He always has. The Rothschild’s do make the market in gold. A humble people. Made strong in the ghettoes of ancient Germany. Their life style has shown a proven disdain of worldly riches and massive wealth and power. And the family has a great respect for paper choosing its use very conservatively except in places of need such as the Federal Reserve Bank. Time folk quit picking on them and started trying to understand them.David Rockefeller or a much younger Rothschild will be the tar baby (Tar Czar?). And of course the conspiracy goes that just as soon as they get that monopoly on all that tar all of us are going to become “tar babies.”Physical gold will continue to be an excellent insurance as the Fed crashes the US dollar. Its not as important how high gold may temporarily rise as the knowledge that it is going to maintain its rate of value while the stock market crashes.Fear and greed ultimately are the defining events controlling the price of gold. The Chinese are continuing to play an ever greater role in the gold market. from gold seek...

Monday, August 9, 2010


Larry (hitman)Summers, director of the National Economic Council, said in an October speech to the Economist magazine’s annual Buttonwood Gathering that fixing the financial system could be compared to reducing fatalities in automobile wrecks. Mandating seat belts, guard rails and speed limits proved more effective in reducing damage caused by crashes than trying to prevent reckless driving, he said.

Well Larry, if anyone should be an expert in mayhem...its you. We know who your master is, but of course you can count on the media covering your evil plans. I like this next quote from bloombergs article.

They’re all saying the same thing, which is don’t kill the goose that lays the eggs you depend on,” NYU’s Smith said. “So they’re getting through to the Basel people, and they’re getting through to them in two ways -- one is to soften the expected blows,” he said. The second is “to extend them well into the future.”

The Basel committee agreed last month to give banks more leeway in the types of assets they can count as capital. Geithner, in his speech at NYU last week, said delaying capital rules will make it easier for banks to earn the money they use as capital.

Just bend me over boyz and give it to me like a man. Don't try and "soften" my blow.

Extend and pretend......Thanx Daddy Dodd for this....Your karma is coming....The Dodd-Frank Act requires 67 studies and 243 new rules to be created, according to law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP. The act creates a Financial Stability Oversight Council with 10 voting members, including a to-be-named insurance expert and heads of at least 3 regulatory agencies awaiting new leaders. The law’s Volcker rule, which bans banks from proprietary trading and limits investments in private equity and hedge funds, requires a study by the council before rules are drafted.

Any of your that don't realize that our sytem is completely owned and who runs this world only needs to understand this.....gl gang

Sunday, August 8, 2010


Recent events portray a flagging economy with unemployment the death knell for the stimulus. I do not blame Obama for this or even Bush. I blame us for allowing our own avarice and apathy to accept a corporate controlled government. I am as guilty as anyone. Bush was a complete moron, and his henchman (the true president) Cheyney finished destroying the constitution and national treasury. Obama does not have ignorance as a defense...He is ten times more bright than GW. He has consciously allowed the true power to dictate the course of the United States of America.

My guess is that the Kress will accurately predict the demise of this country. It will not be a demise hopefully that is cataclysmic but more of a demise into a slow motion quicksand of multiple economic factors that will coalesce to produce a deep and long lasting depression. High cost of essentials with continued severe asset deflation. Ultimately a crash of the dollar will ensue vs. developing growth and nat resource currencies.

Expect the unexpected....when the bond bubble unwinds it will be fast and furious. You will not escape with your assets. Gold will be value,but when the final phase occurs, you may only have black market use of the PM.

Full marshall law should be implemented in 2 to 4 years, but I would expect a republican government to be in total power when that occurs...however it won't matter which party, they are all owned. As it becomes more apparent that the true power has lost control of the economic and military juggernaut that it wags then they will turn to desperate measures to solidify control. Mass detention camps in the name of national security will be viewed as a necessity by the sheeple. We are a virus....nothing more.

Look for your own value in the coming years and do not feel hopeless... for the outcome of all of this, will be forced to its final end by nature and it may drag out for years. At least that is what I believe the intentions of the puppetmaster are.... but remeber the puppetmasters do not control nature, they are only men. Again don't concern yourself with the outcome, but pay more attention to your family, and their needs. As as been stated before the ultimate sacrifice will be for those that are not your loved ones that you help. That will be the true reward in life for us if we step up for those. There ARE innocents....not all of us are bottom feeders. Commit those selfless acts not the selfish acts. Your value will be judged by yourself and others on how you respond.

On the economy PRINTING is guaranteed....so buy physical gold. Miners may or may not have a near term slide, but they will have a correction in 2012....enjoy your weekend and believe in your ability to make a difference. You know what to do....so do it.

Friday, August 6, 2010


This crisis has so far been treated as a recession that this country is going through as a typical economic downturn that can be remedied by Keynesian machinations. The Orzag and Romer resignations show a severe fracture within the administraion's ranks. The handwriting is on the wall as we enter the final stages of the Cabal's efforts to jumpstart a juggernaut of coming disasters brought about by a disintegration of confidence. The overleverage that was begun in the 80s with the misplaced policies of destroying the manufacturing base of America and building a Faux GDP growth through derivative induced liquidity to the tune of 1.25 QUADRILLION worldwide is coming to a terrible conclusion. The belief that the Fed can continue this leverage scheme to bring us out of this borders on insanity. But of course you have no say so as a voter. Both parties are completely compromised by the money in politics and the media is completely owned by the largest 100 corporations in the world with the Cabal pulling all their strings.

The checks and balances of government have been destroyed by the cabal with the judicial branch now completely under the corpratist control. The legislative branch is gone with the exception of a handful of democrats in the House and Ron Paul. The Senate is finished. The executive branch knows the score and is obeying its masters.

The cabal will continue the path to complete anihilation without a dramatic change in course. However this is all planned and when the nature cleans out the excesses they will own virtually every valuable asset through deflation.

Unless we begin the process of bringing back manufacturing to America and re establishing a middle class that can buy the goods and services for a healthy GDP then this will be the eventual conclusion. You are in the midst of a crash, you feel it, but there is nothing to change our course. Unless this country recognizes that the selfish interests are destroying us as a nation then we are doomed. Withou a complete restructuring of our educational, medical, and economic institutions we are lost for decades. Nature hopefully will clean us to the ground and we can rebuild and restore our nation and its freedoms. For now though without the courage to change from within ourselves then we cannot expect our leaders to do the job either. Put your credit cards away (stop spending) and dig in. Its coming and its coming fast. GL readers

Thursday, August 5, 2010


Of PM stocks....which is why your core needs to be only 25% here.

Gold bugs will howl. But it is obvious enough that any major stock market correction – which must be looming on the horizon given this incredibly overbought rally now trading on very thin volumes – will bring gold prices tumbling down as in late 2008.

Is it really any different this time? Well, sadly not, except that the world’s central banks have expended most of their arsenal of weapons. Cutting interest rates is not possible with near zero rates now in place.

Margin calls

So what happens is that stocks sell-off and margin calls are made to investors. They then have to sell something else to pay up. That could be gold, commodities or just about anything.

At the same time the dollar will automatically rally, along with treasuries as markets are liquidated for cash. This increases the demand for dollars and pushes up its value. A rising dollar and falling gold price are a normal correlation, though this does not always apply.

However, gold will not necessarily tumble below $700 as in the spring of 2009. The support level this time is surely around the magic $1,000 mark, and there will be many investors happy to buy into the yellow metal at this kind of discount.

If the 2008-9 sell-off in gold is a guide then the price will bottom out with the stock market. How long will that take? The end of October is one very reasonable estimate. Market falls are generally faster than market rises, and October is traditionally a bad month for stocks.

Continuous rally?

Can we be certain about this? No but you have to consider how likely is the alternative of a continuous stock market rally into the future accompanied by a faltering US recovery?

The unemployment data tomorrow is surely the thing to watch out for. Astrologer Arch Crawford is pretty good at timing his predictions to coincide with major data series as well as planetary movements, and that would be a good reason for anybody to wonder about a crash tomorrow.

But gold will not emerge unscathed when and not if the markets correct. It will, however, be correct to view this as a buying opportunity as the stimulus measures that follow will ultimately be extremely positive for the yellow metal.

-- Posted Thursday, 5 August 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Previous Articles by Peter Cooper

About Peter Cooper:
Oxford University educated financial journalist Peter Cooper found himself made redundant by Emap plc in London in the mid-1990s and decided to rebuild his career in Dubai as launch editor of the pioneering magazine Gulf Business. He returned briefly to London in 1999 to complete his first book, a history of the Bovis construction group.

Then in 2000 he went back to Dubai to become an Internet entrepreneur, just as the dot-com market crashed. But he stumbled across the opportunity to become a partner in www.ameinfo.com, which later became the Middle East's leading English language business news website.

Over the course of the next seven years he had a ringside seat as editor-in-chief writing about the remarkable transformation of Dubai into a global business and financial hub city. At the same time www.ameinfo.com prospered and was sold in 2006 to Emap plc for $27 million, completing the career circle back to where it began a decade earlier.

He remains a lively commentator and columnist as a freelance journalist based in Dubai and travels extensively each summer with his wife Svetlana. His financial blog www.arabianmoney.net is attracting increasing attention with its focus on investment in gold and silver as a means of prospering during a time of great consumer price inflation and asset price deflation.

Am I right...maybe not, but just hope I am and you have a nice cash balance. gl gang


Pushing gold north and pushing equities south. China told the cabal to stop their shenanigans and stocks are pausing to drag in some shorts. That is the game...enjoy.
Oil could still be climbing to 85 so be careful adding but DTO should be tasty today.

Gold may gain in New York for a seventh day on speculation that a weakening dollar will spur demand for bullion as an alternative investment.

The metal has climbed this week as China unveiled plans to relax trading rules for bullion and the dollar on Aug. 3 slipped to a three-month low against the euro. The U.S. currency today fell as much as 0.5 percent. A seven-day climb for gold, which usually moves inversely to the greenback, would be the longest winning streak since November.

“We are seeing resurgent interest from the investor community,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London. Prices have been “benefiting from a tumbling dollar and a rebound in riskier assets.”

Gold futures for December delivery added $3.20, or 0.3 percent, to $1,199.10 an ounce at 8:21 a.m. the Comex in New York. The metal for immediate delivery in London was 0.2 percent higher at $1,196.90.

Still, “interest from Asian buyers is likely to ease in the very short term, as prices have significantly recovered from July’s lows,” Kryuchenkov said.

Bullion fell to $1,195.50 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,199.50 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing. Futures are headed for the first weekly advance in a month, taking this year’s gain to 9.5 percent.

Access to Trading

China, the world’s biggest gold producer and second-largest buyer after India, said on Aug. 3 it would let more banks import and export bullion and allow foreign companies more access to trading.

“Gold may take a breather before continuing on its longer- term trend, underpinned by strong demand from India and China,” said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst with Phillip Futures Pte.

Bullion has slumped 5.3 percent since reaching a record $1,266.50 an ounce on June 21 on reduced European financial turmoil and on signs of a global economic rebound. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both kept their benchmark interest rates at record-low levels today. ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet is holding a press conference. --bloomberg

Wednesday, August 4, 2010


It looks like(for today anyway) that the recent stealth move in the PMs may have legs, as the boyz took the weak shares from the retail weenees. I love this game. Anyway don't feel bad I coughed up a little too. Still have nice core, and as always on the channel move up, I wish I had more. Oil still sucks, but don't be too concerned on the DTO trade. Add at 84.50 and sit tight. Noticed you had a nice conversation last night. And yes....I will be just fine if the demons come.hehehehe

(Reuters) - Gold rose above $1,190 an ounce in Europe on Wednesday, benefiting from softer appetite for assets such as stocks and expectations of a rise in Chinese demand, though an ongoing dearth of safe-haven demand capped gains.

Spot gold rose to a high of $1,197.05 an ounce, its strongest since July 23, and was bid at $1,196.15 an ounce at 1141 GMT (7:41 a.m. EDT) versus $1,185.35 late in New York on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose $10.90 to $1,198.40.

The precious metal has lost much of the support that drove it to record highs earlier this year, based on concerns over economic growth and fiscal stability. Other factors are, however, now emerging to support gold after its dip.

"The initial impetus of safe-haven buying of gold has faded away," said Standard Chartered analyst Daniel Smith. "We are slowly moving to other drivers."

"Ultimately we are going to see more portfolio money coming into gold," he added. "We could see consolidation in the short term, but ultimately on a one to three month view we are going higher."

Concerns over the pace of the recovery in the United States knocked equities on Wednesday, with European shares falling more than 1 percent to session lows. U.S. stock index futures also fell, pointing to a lower opening on Wall Street.

Weak U.S. consumer spending and housing data in recent days have fueled speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may further loosen monetary policy at its August 10 meeting. This may favor gold, which tends to benefit from a looser economic policy.

On the currency markets, the dollar fell toward a 15-year low against the yen, but was broadly flat against the euro and versus a basket of currencies.

All you need is ignorance and confidence and the success is sure.
Mark Twain

Tuesday, August 3, 2010


As far as I can tell we are consolidating and can actually see more downward overall pressure on the PM miners for the next couple of months. I see no reason to expand your core here, and recommend gradual accumulation on weakness. There will be a nice run this year in the miners but they may give you even further cheaper entry prices....I have my core to trade of ssri auy anv ego gfi and a few others. SLW is gone now.....so sad. Also SGG is blood red today.....finally.

Reuters) - Gold rose in Europe on Tuesday as physical consumers like jewelers took advantage of lower prices to buy into the precious metal, and as China announced moves to allow greater freedom in its gold trade.

Spot gold was bid at $1,188.15 an ounce at 1118 GMT (7:18 a.m. EDT), against $1,181.25 late in New York on Monday. U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose $5.40 to $1,190.80 an ounce.

China's central bank said in a statement it will allow its banks to import and export more gold as part of a programme to push forward the development of the country's market in the precious metal.

"This is largely positive news for gold," said UBS analyst Edel Tully. "It looks like an effort to further liberalize the gold market and integrate it into China's financial framework."

She added that the move highlighted the importance of the Chinese gold market, both for the broader Chinese economy and for the global gold trade. China is the world's biggest producer and second-largest consumer of gold, but its trade it largely domestic.

Broader physical demand for the metal rose in Asia, with traders in India, the world's biggest bullion consumer, continuing to buy ahead of festivals as the stronger rupee made the metal more affordable for local buyers.

"Prices below $1,180 are attractive for Indian buyers," said one Mumbai-based dealer.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Economic Depression & Eddie Barzoon

When this cycle completes itself, nature's law will do the cleansing. All the debt we have accumulated over the yrs, deficit sky high, print money, lack of manufacturing, sense of entitlement and spending beyond our means has produced many Eddie Barzoons, think of Al's speech as nature's law, the CONTENT is important not the label:



Nice interview.........enjoy the pump.

"We're not going into a double dip. We're going into a depression. I'm convinced of that," claims renowned Market Forecaster Ian Gordon. Using his sharpest tools, Gordon has determined that the biggest market crash in our lifetime is coming sooner than most expect. But he is using a three-pronged strategy to limit the damage and even make money in the dark times ahead. You will learn why Gordon believes gold, and gold equities in particular, will perform when nothing else does in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.

The Gold Report: Today we are talking with Ian Gordon, president of Longwave Analytics. Your market analysis model, known as the Longwave Principle, is a modified version of the Kondratieff cycle. Could you give us an overview of how it works?

Ian Gordon: I think that I've actually embellished it quite a lot. I've done far more than I think Kondratieff ever envisioned. For instance, breaking the cycle into four seasons—I don't think that's original. But I think those season breaks are very appropriate.

Spring is the birth or rebirth of the economy. Summer is the time when the economy reaches fruition. Autumn is a period where everyone feels very good because it's always the season where you have the biggest bull market in stocks, bonds and real estate. Winter is the period when debt is washed out of the system so that it can start refreshed again in the spring. The cycle lasts a lifetime of about 60 or 70 years. I call it a lifetime cycle, because we live only one cycle in a meaningful way. For that reason, it is also very difficult for anyone to recognize where we are in the cycle because we haven't lived in that period before.


Sunday, August 1, 2010


America was rivetted to the almost magical wedding of our own royalty Saturday. There were many famous and almost famous participants at the tiny New York town of Rhinebeck. Fittingly the wedding was held at the Astor Estate for the loyalty that her father demonstrated for the elite. After all the commoners would not have it any other way for the once promising favorite son. It is truly a rags to riches story. A small town Arkansas boy rises to the top of the heap, and now his daughter has a Vera Wang wedding dress. I know my eyes are moist as I reflect. Hopefully Chelsea will continue in her parents footsteps and help the little people. I know that I will be dutifully observant, and humbled, waiting for our pittance. Maybe I can score a piece of wedding cake.

I took note of the attendant media clamoring for that special moment the past week. Many of the erstwhile reporters that staked out this incredible stories brave beds in motor homes to be present for the event. With their 7 figure incomes, I regard that as a sacrifice for the American people.

Hopefully enough devotion to this story overcame the story of the leak of the Afghan files. That evil Oklahoma traitorous wretch that leaked that needs to be in solitary confinement in Langley (never mind..he is). Afterall....leaking the truth...is a punishable offense in this country and most others. Of course the courage of his conviction will be dealt with swiftly. I am glad that we have the wedding to overcome this dark shadow of truth.

I am also happy that the oil has a couple of million gallons of dispersant spread on it (despite the EPA ordering it halted 3 months ago) so that now we can keep it out of sight and under the surface. I am sure that Chelsea will not be honeymooning in that nasty white trash small people area along the Florida panhandle. Nothing exclusive about that place. Give me Monacco or give me death. Maybe the Greeks would like some island money spread for their peasants.