Monday, October 18, 2010

DISTRIBUTION PHASE CONTINUES

Don't get too exited. Just more games to come this week, but I like some of the energy plays on weakness...keep them small and take your profits....no buy and hold long here. DTO needs to see oil push closer to 85...but I already have a small position. I'll watch ATPG and HAWK for quick trades on weakness. DCTH on weakness too. Good read on Gold pullback hahah.

A growing number of countries see a weaker exchange rate as a way to lift their economies. They want to export their way out of trouble. This war is over the ability to export to other nations and about keeping your own citizens employed during a period of an extended slowdown in global demand. Nations will either vault forward or fall behind, so they are trying to protect their own turf, a worrying signal that all is not well with the global economy. Countries tend to be less bothered about a strong currency in good times.


With further quantitative easing in the developed world, the appeal of hard, unprintable currencies like gold and other commodities will continue to shine. Given the budgetary jam U.S. leaders find themselves facing, they understand that one of the few options they have is to boost American exports by devaluing the dollar.

All this in the long term will be very good for gold.

Speaking of gold, the very long-term gold chart shows that gold moved up to the upper border of the very long-term trading channel. Last week’s stated target level was breached only temporarily. Although at first sight, Friday's intra-day action might give a different impression, it seems as though gold’s fervent rally may have cooled.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/230489-has-gold-s-corrective-phase-begun?source=dashboard_stocks-sectors

Nice article on how to play this...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/230528-gaming-the-next-gold-correction?source=dashboard_stocks-sectors

23 comments:

  1. Opex week coming up (10/26) for the metals so there's lots of shenanigans going on. Usually, they fall a bit into opex but that pattern did not hold last month. GL everyone.

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  2. GDX and GDXJ both fell out of their channels. 20 ema acting as support. Lower BB should hold

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  3. be patient and let um play this out

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  4. dj,

    DCTH almost in daily basis is giving nice 0.30 fluctuation around 8.50, heheeee!

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  5. ABK today is a classic demonstration of how mms take out stops and then run it back up, experienced traders took advantage, nice!

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  6. ATPG moved nicely.

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  7. dj,

    With ABK you need to play gaps at current price, it has the potential to get to 1.40 in coming days, how ever if you play heavy try to hit the gaps for 0.10 and wait for the next entry. Volume is nice every day so liquidity is not an issue.

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  8. ok thks guys is dcth a buy above $8.5

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  9. If DCTH breaks out here it goes to at least 12 without breaking a sweat

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  10. Analyze,

    TA on UTA , this one is facing nice short squeeze.

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  11. from motley fool:

    "[Universal Travel] UTA will be the next to blow, because its not a fraud, shorts are piling on at rock bottom valuations, and I think we will see a buyback announcement soon."

    -----------------------------------------

    The volume and price past couple of sessions is indicator of short squeeze, this could be massive.

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  12. Pretty brutal short squeezing at the distribution top. Joe pretty much nails it for the short gap trading here if you want a seat in the casino.

    2 weeks till the elections, distribution could be a few days to the more than 2 weeks. Oil will track the general market under this controlled rally.

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  13. I was a heretic today and played GS long (I actually picked it up late Friday), very profitable, but I dumped it in the final half hour. DSCO and EXAR typical behavior, both looking good. Joe, I really like UTA, looks like a 7 target. Trading tomorrow but then not the rest of the week due to other commitments. Expect more of the same action on SPX, wait for the good entries on the dips.

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  14. picked up Exar at 6.62 and dsco at .23
    holding dcth

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  15. Yep those are good ones Temo. I also agree with Dr. J tonight on FM, IBM is pretty interesting right where it sits AH, and moreso at 135/6, that gap may be a buy in the morning, we shall see. I will watch the AAPL gap too, I wish it was more overdone, have to see where it sits pre-market tomorrow. The talking heads on Kudlow asking if the tech rally is over, may as well go long on weakness.

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  16. A reminder on one of the best songs for trading advice:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo

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  17. gotta love Kenny.

    Since I believe the immediate future is grim and will be painful I am optimistic that those who survive will be in better shape. Gloria says it all for me.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBR2G-iI3-I

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