Saturday, October 23, 2010

SATURDAY ANALYZE

Thnx analyze.......

I posted a couple weeks ago in terms of EGO with a bias to down (yeah, it happened, huge surprise on that lol), the miners are under distribution, so anything on the longside only works on the trend acceleration extremes to downside (see the ANV chart), in other words, extremes are bought countertrend for one day pops, but there are no reversals daily yet to reverse the overall trend. I would really hate for ANV to break trend here, I want a 21 reversal instead, and need that to occur within the next week of trading. Reversal right here on that position as a proxy to miners - not good bigger picture. GDX/GDXJ (at this price level to reverse now) is an arduous path of sideways to up moves that are crap on the options side. So hope for more miner downside, we need that to occur in order to have viable trades, otherwise that sector is a pass-over for me going forward for some time long or short.
In terms of the market trend, Temo and I (sorry to speak on your behalf Temo) both agree that the trend up remains, and is similar to a year ago with a price oscillation on SPX due to the sector bias leading. There are two premises, the first with a 1200/1220 bias to fall out of accelerated trend to intermediate trend as support (big selloff there that reverses up), where you load up long, albeit I assume you are not loading into distribution sectors, expecting SPX reversals to breathe life into dead positions. The other is we grind higher to new highs on SPX. I hugely am on the side of the first premise.
Shorter term until those targets, if we have a big down day you load long, and do not assume prevalent downside. A huge down day (something like -20 SPX) is a small caps long and hit Tech on the call side. Everything about trading now is patience, where you pick a pony, wait for a great entry, take it, and be patient for it to ramp and then dump it (small caps plays not included).

The point of "distribution" always comes up during phases like this, what I would ask is, what is being distributed? Surely people do not take a SPY view on something like that - it is only when the sectors that lead higher go under distribution to break trend, that a term like "distribution" is meaningful, so again, do not take consolidated indices "under distribution" as a way to trade. This is like the fools term of "we are overbought" to mean a bear premise is valid. Overbought can remain for months, and the fact it is overbought means you buy weakness when it retraces from not being so; it is not a pre-cursor to a selloff, but instead to trend continuation. Fake EW junkies who love to chart but have never traded use that a lot. Distribution has occurred since the inception of the market, including bull uptrend’s, where real traders look for long entries, and the brainless follow "truth" instead of price action. Go to a bear board and see what "truth" is on old news that is released to serve their bias. They are the court jesters for the ponzi and too dense to know it. I remember this crap during last year's move up. Every candle was the top of something and the end of the world, and the message board shutins out of money posted desperately to get attention, while the few real traders caught the upside.
I posted a week ago or so to buy dips, we had a SPX selloff a few days ago that had all the bears jumping around, what a joke. When we hit a trend reversal I will let you know. You will notice the price action is similar to last year, I posted several times that, "he who trades to a consolidated index is slaughtered", the reason the SPX action on a daily chart looks like it does, is that you have dampened sectors versus the leaders, and as each of these rotates through consolidation it gives that look to the price action. Notice transports weakness versus a green SPX today as an example.
I still like UTA, EXAR, DSCO as holds along with the sector plays, but the price action until a solid trend is established with higher volume tends to do that, these plays are volatile shorter term. Notice the BS around 6.66 for EXAR that I mentioned previously, no surprise there. Consolidation prior to moving higher for that level is as predictable as the sun coming up on cloudless days, so buy on w

7 comments:

  1. Kliguy - you are all over this expected pullback like bedbugs on a bed in a cheap New York Hotel. I believe we have similiar views on this.

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  2. Inlet, nice to see you join some old grumpy boomers lol. Are you still using the embedded cycles with Fournier? The advantage to getting older is that whenever I am wrong I just say I'm senile.

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  3. Just kidding, I'm not that old. I watch my diet and hit the iron, I'm youger than Dano and have good genetics. Kli, I have some special research that I have done coming up in the next posts, it is my youtube analysis of crap, fodder for the masses.

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  4. Here is my first analysis, all these posts are high value-add:

    I have spent some time trying to find entertaining videos, not ones of quality, but car-wreck style where one would love to not watch, but are forcibly drawn in through fascination with autotune, crappy lyrics, disturbing lack of quality, weirdness, etc. Here is my list so far with some commentary:

    Your love by Nicki Minaj:
    My favorite lyrics in this one are the opening:
    “Shawty Imma only tell you this once, you the illest (dat for dat dat dude)
    And for your lovin' Imma Die Hard like Bruce Willis(bah ba dah dah oh)
    You got spark, you, you got spunk You, you got something all the girls want
    You're like a candy store and I'm a toddler.
    You got me wantin' more and ma ma more”
    Another line: “He they type to keep a couple hundred grand in a rubber band
    Just left Money Gram in the Lemon Lam
    Hot damn make me scream like summer jam…..Somehow I understood him when he spoke Thai, never spoke lies and he never broke fly”.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSFyrrhKj1Q&ob=av2e

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  5. Take it Off by Ke$ha:
    If you look up the lyrics there is a ringtone you can download. I may do that. This tune is autotune heaven. Some sample lyrics: “There’s a place I know if you’re looking for a show, where they go hardcore and there’s glitter on the floor”. “Now we’re getting so smashed knocking over trash cans, everybody breaking bottles, it’s a filthy hot mess”. Usually some commentators support videos, nope, not for this one.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edP0L6LQzZE&ob=av3n

    Bullet Proof by Laroux:
    I think this is a woman singing, the commentary below the video supports that premise. A couple weeks ago I left a comment that “Conan O’Brien looks much younger in this video than usual”. I got a dozen thumbs up in an hour. Catchy tune, also a ringtone candidate to remind me to “never break fly”, especially if I have days where “I’m not the illest, with spark and spunk to be like a candy store”.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUsbpmQ9-mc

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  6. It this juncture buy the dips an hold for the targets seems the best way to avoid the noise created by the HFT's. Otherwise sitting on the sidelines is the best advice.

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  7. Analyze - still around and still trying to decipher cycles. Hope you have been well.

    My goal is to make Kilguy's Blog list with my new Blog endeavor. lol. Of course, as you know Kilguy only lists the creme de creme. So I have to produce worthwhile content to get on his list.

    I won't be so lacking in character as to pump it by posting the URL here.

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