Friday, December 17, 2010

CONGRESS ACTS.....U. S. IS SAVED

Shocking news out of Washington. President Obamas Extend and Pretend bill passes with overwhelming Republican support. Democrats fight to the bitter end to preserve our democracy, but alas the Republican pressure was overwhelming and the tax cuts to ALL income brackets was preserved. I personally appreciate this and thanked my children for their future enslavement. I would also like to take the opportunity to thank the Dems for fighting for the country and especially the Republicans for insuring that people in my income bracket are not forced to pay more money. Balanced budgets are for suckers.

Now for the Eurozone.... Germany had great economic news today...much stronger economy than expected. Eurozone problems for them??? Nahhh...just a speed bump.

One thing that you can count on is this game is ON!! We are warming up the greatest flood of money the world could ever imagine...and it is going to have a profound impact on all of us. One way or another ....when this monster is eventually unleashed you are going to see an absolute explosion in the costs of essentials in a world with economies and individuals teetering on the edge of an economic cliff. The grand reflation experiment will resonate for years to come. I'll stick with the timeframe of 2012-2015 for the deflationary washout. That still looks like a go. Ben will have to put the brakes on or the bond vigilantes will do it for him. The pitchfork crowd will also pop up here at that time. Don't worry if you are in the "law and order" crowd. You will see the biggest clamp down of your freedoms you can possibly imagine. If you like the military now, then you're gonna LOVE um in 2012.....when the PTB call them out to "insure YOUR safety". There should be some serious national safety issues to deal with too and you will be VERY SUPPORTIVE of these actions. I know I will.

Our malinvestments in this country will become become only a distant memory as we scramble for ALPO and shelter. China will be looking to strengthen their new trading Partners as the new Asian mantra become ABTUS...Anyone But The U. S. We will still have 800 military bases in 130 countries....mainly due to the fact we can't afford the fuel to bring them back home (not to mention the fact who wants 300 thousand unemployed pissed off centurions that know how to make IEDs in country).

They will still be printing unemployment numbers on the first friday of every month...but everyone stopped watching in 2012 when Rick Santelli kicked the shit out of Steve Leisman on air and was fired by CNBS for flipping off Erin Burnett afterwards.

It will be a different landscape.....but I am going to remain an optimist. I refuse to believe that the greatest Ponzi ever conceived cannot make lemonade out of this lemon. Its gonna be all OK.....somehow we will get through all of this bizzare, sick, bullshit and the smart traders here will be standing on top of the heap when this pile of chit collapses. WASH RINSE and REPEAT.

So lets keep our focus on the game. Its money printing and its means essentials like energy and food are headed higher right now. Watch the miners SSRI EGO HL GFI SWC ANV all re getting close to a tradable bottom. Just beware ...keep a lot of cash handy in case they do decide to take this market down hard. And as always own the physical........

21 comments:

  1. Kli,
    Excellent posts both yesterday & today. I could not agree more.
    Sold my HL yesterday with hopes to buy back cheaper.
    Ever look at TASR? Seems like the stock will explode when the poop hit the fan here in the States.

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  2. http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/ViewShortableStocks.php?key=ccme&cntry=usa&tag=United+States&ib_entity=llc&ln=

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  3. http://seekingalpha.com/article/242389-china-mediaexpress-the-best-stock-in-the-world?source=yahoo

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  4. kenny & jim,

    Hope you picked up CCME or added at 15.50, textbook.

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  5. http://www.forbes.com/2010/12/17/uranium-miners-cameco-markets-equities-exelon.html?partner=yahootix

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  6. good morning all........looking for near term gold bottom but not convinced....monday will be the tell.....and yes tasr looks tasty doc

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  7. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCME&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07272025534

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  8. Kli, would you like me to give you my analysis on the VIX action from today, or are you all set here?

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  9. Analyze I would appreciate you also looking at VPHM . Joe I did add to my core of CCME. Thanks

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  10. analyze......yes.....looks to be touching lower channel so please straighten me out

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  11. All,

    Check out LPH, another chinese stock which is undervalued, it's in petroleum sector:

    http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10941981/1/chinese-petro-company-poised-to-go-higher.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

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  12. LPH news on Friday:

    "11:20AM Longwei Petroleum intends to expand its petroleum storage capacity in 2011 to keep up with growing demand for petroleum products in its region (LPH) 2.50 +0.03 : Co stated "The Company wishes to clarify to its shareholders that it has no intention of raising capital at current price levels and would only issue shares in the future to make an accretive acquisition that would increase storage capacity, revenue and earnings."

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  13. Woodcarver - I have a short term topping target of 18.4 with a nosebleed target at 18.75 before it would retrace, and a longer term trending target that would have it re-attain its 2006 highs around 24.36, although it may take some time to get there. As far as the trend itself it appears solid but I might trim some into 18.4 and wait on the retrace, a 17 back-test would be a buy. I would expect the trend up to remain solid from an intermediate perspective to the 2/21 earnings.

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  14. VIX Analysis and other thoughts:
    (2 posts to fit it in)
    As we know 2011 is a year that is shaping up to have a high trader attrition rate, if one believes in Kress Cycles the back half and certainly 2012 will have the savvy survivors use volatility trading as one of their key survival aids to fund their 100 dollar a can alpo diet, as the ponzi tries to fight the cycles and eventually lose their grasp. As the cycles turn down versus the ponzi prop, it will tend to have down phases with sharper volatility spikes than in 2010. If you do not believe in those cycles, the market will rip higher in a new bull trend, with the VXO settling in the 16 area and all will be well in Utopia. Now is the time to start paper-trading volatility.
    Along with VXX, VXN, RVX and a host of other volatility instruments, there are several other tools released recently, namely XIV, XVIX, and TVIX, those will be useful once they have more data behind them as vehicles. When you hear someone like Dr. J talk about protective puts as hedging upside, he is usually referring to VXX – so be aware that he and the best of the ponzi elite traders are living in that arena, it would not be surprising if the angel of death is day trading it for a pastime; if you enjoy shark-infested waters, this is the aquarium to swim around in.

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  15. The prevalence of ETFs has commoditized many stocks to trade in tandem to their sector index rather than fundamentals, so hedging is usually to something like VXX, rather than finding an individual underlying to short against a long position, since more and more, even garbage trends to the market. This commoditization through ETFs and resultant hedging with puts on the VIX, has made it harder to interpret VIX action, you will notice people are starting to mention on CNBC that they can no longer interpret the VIX relative to the market; this is the reason for it.
    On Friday the VIX fell off the table down 10% at one point to prompt speculation. The VIX was set up by the CBOE as a predictive tool for SPX options implied volatility over 30 day periods. CBOE set it up to use a variety of front and back month OTM call and put strikes (non-zero valued ones) using their own formula rather than Black-Scholes for options pricing. The setup from Friday has the December options expiring mid next week, so for a significant event (remember I am talking about a significant implied volatility event – such as dramatically low volatility in the short term), the front month will skew its value more than the back month which are less responsive at this juncture IF there is something significant that fits into those two timeframes. Obviously the setup to game it does not occur often. The shark tank that uses VXX as their predictive tool for SPX, have taken on a premise for market direction that tips their hand based on the timing and setup for how VIX is calculated – in this case, the VIX dropped dramatically because they recognize that the market internals are horrible, with little participation outside of algos propping SPX near the 1250 target we had from weeks ago, but the ponzi will prop SPX here until the December options expire on low implied volatility. So the December contracts near expiration with the short term prediction of flat-line were the reason for the drop. So expect SPX flat through mid week, day trade off intraday range bottoms and do not believe in breakout trades early in the week, since they will roll over and fail on breakouts. What was more interesting was the way the sharks piled into January call strikes for VXX, clamoring to get into the OTM strikes on large contract volume. Such action would tend toward a SPX smack-down coming our way, rather than that action being hedges. So the short summary is they expect a flat-line over the next few days, but certainly were interested in protection afterwards. The max top on SPX is 1266, that could include a January effect on selected positions that would still “fit” into that target, but this move up that CNBC is pumping as the never-ending bull market higher, has the best traders betting otherwise.

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  16. Analyze Thanks for the reply. I really appreciate JOE and you for all help. Kli is a special person also, Roddog and I are still trying to learn as much as possible this blog site has great information . Thanks

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  17. Analyze,

    In CCME do you see what I see which is the 3 day MA just crossed over the 9 day MA which I use a lot successfully. MACD looks to have bottomed at the "0" line which is a great place to start a run. The 20 and 50 day MA are identical sitting at $16.17 each which after today the 20 day will be slightly higher which is great. The 100 day MA just crossed back over the 200 day a few days ago which means all the moving averages are aligned for a move up. Most chart indicators are either turned up or doing so right now. The move off Friday's's low of $15.56 was a retest of Thursday's low of $15.42 on lighter volume and held nicely which is what you wanna see. The stock is now in a momentary consolidation pattern but still holding above the 9 and 20 period MA on a 5 minute chart which is very bullish.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCME&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07272025534

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  18. Joe, I like what I see in CCME, see the wedge with top at 17, get it over that...kaboom. For anyone not already in, that move over 17 is a good confirmation entry. Notice the JAN open interest is all skewed to the call side, with practically no takers on the put side at all. I've played this several times over the past month or so, looks ripe to milk this one again.

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  19. Analyze,

    From fundamental point of view which I also look at besides technical charts, the news about issuing dividend is huge and if they follow it by buy back shares then watch out, the stock hit the 52 week high of 22 November 8th and since then retraced to low 14 and recently trading between 15 and 17. The earning per sshare is over $2 and look at the P/E which ridiculous for a growth stock. 25% of the float is short, this one can face a real short squeeze.

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  20. Test post, I posted but lost the last one.

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  21. Okay it seems to be working now. Agreed on the fundamentals side, this can run up big time, kind of like the AZO chart 2009 breakout, fades, then has the real run. This one can be a pony for 2011.

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