Wednesday, June 30, 2010

I WILL GLADLY PAY YOU TUESDAY...update I

for a hamburger today. Should make a nice mantra for our social mindset. Unfortunately when the big clean comes a lot of sheeple will need to modify this well conditioned behavior. We are lemmings conditioned to believe in the debt tooth fairy. Now nature is coming and nature is a cold predatory white shark. The fat lazy consumer is like a young fat seal wallowing on their back with soft Pacific waves lapping on their meaty little tummies.

We are in that ocean phase right now with a slow motion destruction of our economic facade taking place. Deleveraging is beginning to occur worldwide, but in a "controlled" manner. Unfortunately while deleveraging is occurring the Fed and our Government is trying to prevent the necessary process from completion by various combinations of manipulation (statistics, media, QE/monetization, stimulus etc). The process we are entering is not only natural, but necessary. Without the cleaning there can be no new growth. Some of you believe this will spell complete doom. Some of you like Joe believes this will be the great cleansing of a sick society that has taken the wrong turn in its road greatness and will be set straight again. That would make this a tremendous positive for us.

I don't have any magical powers of course to foresee the future, but common sense and logical financial reasoning guides most astute observers of the current world debt situation to come to one simple conclusion......its over. The greed, corruption, and lack of economic responsibility is coming to an end. The only way it ends is with a deflationary collapse, and a rebirth. Don't be a fool. Don't try to stand in the way and think you can grab and "asset deal" now. Be very careful here. Debt has to be destroyed and right now you don't want debt. Hold your gold. Store food. Gardens. Self sustaining eco friendly power systems. It may sound like doom n gloom, but in the long run we will be better for it, not only as individual, but as a nation and world. We need leaders now that level with the population and tell them what is necessary and what is coming. Tell them that everyone will have to make sacrifices, but give them the reasons why this is all happening. Educate the sheeple. Many will understand. Declare war on the charletons and clean house. They may kill you, but so what...nature is going to kill you anyway. LEAD. LEAD or get out of the way. (sorry for the cliche).

Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest.
Mark Twain

update I.... market continues controlled sell-off. Should be a more interesting day tomorrow. Beware if you are playing a short trade here. Everyone expects at least 950 as do I. That is a good reason to be very careful right here. Shorts did not cover tonight. I would expect some very nice action tomorrow. Mostly cash now....60%...and sitting tight. Only short trades here.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

MASSACRE ON MAIN STREET

Or as Goldman likes to say....Xmas bonus time. Hope you all enjoy what happens when you have a no bid market. You can do anything you like if you own the casino here. No buyers and NO shorts equal NO market. Next move after trying to push this to the right shoulder (SHOCKING they didn't let it get to the 1040 -1050 level so the shorts could have loaded) is to take it down and let the big funds go back into the market long so that GS can have some ammo to drive this market to glory. So the question is the route and timing. Sorry, I don't have that ability, only guesses...Look for a drive soon to squeeze out any weak shorts then another resumption to take this baby down to the 950 level at least. This is treacherous territory and could be a chop shop for several months before we bottom.

GDX looks like it could easily hit 50.79 for a trade, but strong support is around 46.18,,,, Joe is warning that gold short term can take a big hit so beware....long term he is bullish....but miners like ANV which I hold can be slaughtered SLW too....anyway...I raised some extra cash and will not overtrade until the dust settles. GL Gang

Monday, June 28, 2010

MONDAY MONDAY update III

Oh what to do? Should I take my profit here before the gold floor falls out or should I hold for just a little more. Should I buy Jesse's cup and handle on gold and take it for the big ride to perhaps 1500?? These are questions that are the bain of my existence. I am constantly plagued by the inevitablility of a sudden down ward move in gold by the powers that manipulate this market. It scares me. It should scare you. Just remember one little thing. The only way gold becomes a bad long term investment is the economy does find the "answer" and we have a long term return to sustainable world growth with low inflation.....THATS IT FOLKS. So if you believe in the tooth fairy then you are welcome to get pushed out of your positions long term. On the other hand try and trade around your core on the rips. Have fun and forget about the noise. The noise is put out there for a reason.....never forget that. So with that intro...here is more noise to digest.

The market mood for gold

Today we are seeing the gold price rise as it complets this particular step of its short-term consolidation after hitting record highs last week. But inside the price what is there from which we can answer our question?

· Gold has been consolidating over the last week after reaching a new record high level in this quiet season for traditional gold buyers.

· It is clear that there are very large buyers in the market who are seeking to buy large amounts of gold, without chasing prices. These have identified themselves to some extent as central banks. Not all of them are visible, nor are the sovereign wealth funds who are buying as well.

· Their buying practice is to set price limits that they will pay and then wait for the offers of gold. Hence they too are not clearly visible when prices don’t move.

· Large long-term holders of gold are buying through Exchange Traded Funds and have bought 124 tonnes so far in the last month. They tend to buy gold as the gold price starts to rise.

· Traders have changed their practice from one of pushing prices and leading the market as they did five years ago to following the direction of the market and profit when others move the price. They find current conditions more difficult as a result.



The net result has been that prices don’t fall as far as the charts indicate, but are rising higher than expected.



What impact will the G-8 and G-20 have on gold?

The meeting this weekend of the G-8 and G-20, we expect, will have no more effect than past ones have had. Encouraging statements will be made about good intentions, but with no believable plan of action. As now is the time for them to act, the climate of uncertainty and fear will continue to persist. Unfortunately, Politicians have other matters on their agenda and don’t perform well, until a crisis is upon us. So we will have to wait for that crisis. Crises then tend to appear out of nowhere, hitting markets hardest and producing differing levels of panic.



To emphasize the point, markets have looked to governments to calm them when financial uncertainty persists. Government actions to date, taken inside the financial markets have not turned the global economy back to strong growth in the last three years. Banks have succeeded in softening most of the new regulations that will apply to them emasculating their effectiveness. Political considerations often precede effective reformation and regulation as a result. This discourages markets.



So, all in all, the G-8 and G-20 will likely add to the fears that markets presently face and encourage more gold price rises.



Supply of gold

There is almost no flexibility in gold supplies. Gold mining is extremely inflexible so tends to remain unchangeable in the short-term. Only by inciting sellers to come to the market can new supplies arrive. That takes a price sufficiently high to convince sellers that now is the time to sell. When this selling comes it is called ‘scrap’ sales.



But that is only as flexible as the price rises. Too low, no scrap sales come to the market. Too high, scrap sales can swamp a market. But there are no hard and fast rules to that formula. If the general expectation is for a $1,500 price, then hoarders will keep a tight grip on their gold until that price is reached even when they want profits.



But in this day and age gold owners are holding gold as a counter to the uncertainties in other markets and this is priceless!



Put another way, if you want the gold price to come down, regain the confidence of the consumer and rectify the national economy. If you don’t, people will continue to hoard gold.



Demand for gold

Demand for gold is growing through a broadening of investment demand. In different countries and through new different investors the market is deepening. This investment demand is coming from people in different walks of life. As confidence decays, new investors appear. This type of demand is now controlling the bulk of the market. Where jewelry demand had waned last year, we now see it return to activity, but with its gold content firmly in the buyer’s mind. In fact, as gold is not consumed but usually recovered, gold in all uses should be categorized as investment gold.



We continue to believe that new gold investors will keep coming and coming over time from central banks right down to Joe Citizen. Their driving reason will be that they want to have gold for rainy days when it can be used to provide value where currencies don’t. That force is global and growing! from Jullianne Phillips...

update I.....ABSOLUTE MUST READ on the oil spill by Naomi Klein (Shock Doctrine) fame.......

http://www.thenation.com/article/36608/hole-world

update II...temo charts......

http://temo1051.blogspot.com/

update III.....ooooboy....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-are-we-approaching-epic-failure?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Sunday, June 27, 2010

DO YOU SMELL IT? update I

Its called fear....from bloomberg.....The percentage of corporate bonds considered in distress is at the highest in six months, a sign that debt investors expect the economy to slow and defaults to rise.

The number of speculative-grade companies worldwide with yields at least 10 percentage points more than government bonds climbed to 399 this month, or 16.7 percent of the total, the highest share since December, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. The ratio compares with 9.2 percent on April 30, which was the lowest since November 2007.

Junk bond offerings slumped to the least in 15 months in June amid concern that government efforts to control spiraling budget deficits will hamper global growth and drive up borrowing costs for the neediest borrowers. The 2010 default rate in the U.S. may jump as high as 6 percent by year-end from 1.3 percent currently, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“The default driver will be a reversal of easy refinancing conditions,” said Charles Himmelberg, the chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York. “

While Goldman Sachs forecasts defaults will climb this year, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by high-yield credit strategist Peter Acciavatti wrote June 25 that the rate will be 2 percent in 2010. The divergent views reflect uncertainty in credit markets as investors weigh the effects of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and concern that the U.S. economy may tip back into recession

update I..... news from G20....Geithner excerpt...What we share in the G20 is a recognition that if the world economy is to expand at its potential, if growth is going to be sustainable in the future, then we need to act together to strengthen the recovery and finish the job of repairing the damage of this crisis.

OK now I know this seems reasonable.....but I thought he has said repeatedly for months now that we had been saved by him and were on a stable road to recovery with solid economic improvement....maybe its just me knitpicking..but I swear that this is completely contradictory.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

HANGOVER SATURDAY

I'm not a drinker so don't worry, but the title seemed appropriate after yesterday's mundane overall market with the miners EXPLODING. Is this a breakout move??? Maybe. One thing for certain they have been playing the cat and mouse game with gold for quite awhile now. Its reaching the point where it appears they are going to bring it up to the next plateau maybe around 1350 before another consolidation move to shake out the longs, and keep the fiat ponzi hope alive. The USD needs to come down and may give gold its next big bump. In my humble opinion the larger USD move up will noth occur until later in the year October November. Unless the USD weakens, our multinationals are going to hit some export walls, and we know they don't like that. There is also that little issue of jobs out there with a flagging economy. Q/E as mentioned here and by commenters is looming large later this year. Yes...the dollar and the printing machine will ramp......just a matter of when....not how much. The how much is easy.....WHATEVER IT TAKES....remember.

My favorite plays in the miners are EGO ANV GFI SLW SSRI. I do own more. Keep your eye on SGY for the trades. SGG is my new bad boy. It can be a hold here.

Friday, June 25, 2010

T/A DAY

Copy from analyze post last nite T/A post of varied subjects for the Friday algo-fest: First the miners – nothing says sell, the premise remains, but that does not mean I want to repeat the practice of favoring swing versus day trade again given this environment. I prefer immediate results not countertrend trades like ANV, but the results count, just like the CHK short which was hot here, just like those who notice RIMM earnings misses tend to have gap continuation rather than fill, if SPX is muted in tandem. You will also notice that earlier this year I said to not trade to composite indices - is it surprising that ANV rocked long while SPX dived?
The laws of nature do not favor balancing acts of anomalies for too long. Similar to a comment I made recently about nat gas plays losing mojo if no specific Obummer program follow-through occurred, the miners remain strong, but there has to be a limit of how long they take arms against a sea of troubles and, by opposing, end them. If downside persists the tide eventually grounds all ships, so there are limitations to relative strength in these (I am speaking of day and swing traders of miners here, not core positional trading – different rules).

That being said, here are day/swing trading rules for two samples:
SLW: If < 19.61 buy for reversal at 19, tight stop on the entry
If upside occurs but < 20.77 fade for rollover, if > 20.78 it is continuation up

EGO: Up but < 18.04 is a bounce to fade, >18.26 means it has mojo
Optimal entry is lower at 17.5, but tight stop and drop it if that does not hold.

My general perception on the miners is that a scale-in on trend if SPX goes lower is preferred, and if we get the reversal I have noted below you will be happy with the results. Most are non-optionable outside ANV and EGO unless you enjoy being time-boxed into front month fighting a crap spread on entry and exit with too high a percentage of open interest in your possession, so pick your methods accordingly. Despite CNBC input this is not the time for simpleton spread methods. Play countertrend on entries to reduce the premium overhang rather than other methods that leave you vulnerable as a bagholder against the trend of the minute against spread overshoots, which are conveniently not mentioned on the end of day Friday CNBC programs similar to casino advertising.
In general, current environment without game-changing intervention means....
SPX: bounce bound 1083, greater than that is intraday-only reversal bounded by 1088. Downside scenario limits 1050 for reversal squeeze with prior resistance and interim corrective at 1061. And the related best plays for each SPX scenario are:

Bullish: CAT, ANEN, BIDU (only if you have traded it before), NTAP, SNDK, BA.
Reversals: WHR, YHOO, DECK (play the previous daily extremes IF we get continuation downside)
Continuation lower: RIMM non-gap fill on earnings miss (prevaling pattern), CHK and TNA if SPX rolls over after muted upside to the bound.
Short squeeze: GS, BP. People were piling into GS afterhours, it may be that the simple analysis here is that GS tends to lead financials into earnings with a first impulse flag that consolidates while regionals ramp, so watch this. Financial reform and timing is the wildcard, but the options on this provide an opportunity to say the least. Usually earnings season provides enough optimism to have one bake in at least a consolidation range to game, not so sure here since future earnings may be projected to tank. Dangerous...but I would love to see a few flatline to straddle delta neutral on BIDU or the above mentions on a catalyst.
Safest: Sidestep and observe the algo carnage.
Hope my post helped you in some way.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

STEADY...STEADY...FIRE! update I

Going according to plan gang......

(Reuters) - Gold was broadly steady on Thursday, weighed slightly by traditional currency fundamentals as the dollar rose, but expectations for low interest rates and wider market jitters were keeping the metal's uptrend intact.

Spot gold stood at $1,233.95 an ounce by 1034 GMT, compared with $1,235.20 quoted late in New York on Wednesday. U.S. August gold futures were quoted at $1,235.20.

Having raced to a record $1,264.90 early this week, prices have struggled to gain further traction, leaving the market vulnerable to short-term setbacks. Gold has also latched back onto its traditional inverse correlation with the dollar.

The Federal Reserve acknowledged a faltering pace of U.S. economic recovery on Wednesday as it renewed its vow to hold benchmark interest rates exceptionally low for an extended period.

"Low interest rates are generally good news for precious metals. We believe that the Fed and the ECB (European Central Bank) will remain on hold for quite sometime because of the European debt problems," said Tobias Merath, analyst at Credit Suisse.

European sovereign debt concerns were still on investors radars too with the cost of protecting government debt against default in Greece hitting a record high, while its bond yield spread widened ahead of Greek bonds being dumped by index fund managers at month end.

Technical analysts were positive on the market's ability to breech new highs, despite its current lack of traction.

"Spot gold maintains a target of $1,300...$1,308.02 is an additional upside target en-route to the more significant $1,350/1,392.70 resistance area," Commerzbank said in a note to clients

update I. I find many parallels with Jesse on gold as THE trade...both of us recognize the short term manipulation restrictions....but longer term the economics of the trade.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

IS IT ALL A CONSPIRACY ?? update I

Why...yes..of course, but you need to ask yourself this question, so what? Its been the game for a long long time. What took you so long to arrive at the truth. Oh sure..its a "little worse" now that it was 30 years ago. Now you have the government, Fed, and Wall Street overtly in bed together. No pretense of a transparent market now. In fact I argue that the game is to TELL you the game is fixed to KEEP you in the long play of the market...its called CONfidence. We desperately need VELOCITY of money to be achieved...and its NOT. This game is ALL about velocity of money. We have zero chance of achieving a rebound of our economy without it.

The new home housing data today was horrific....down 32.7%. No way you can paint that number anyway but catastrophic....so look for a rally today. Somewhat tongue in cheek maybe, but what you can be assurred of is more print money coming and coming hard down the road. QE is not far behind. No tightening today for sure. These guys are going to go down swinging so their are going to be large tracts of forests destroyed for the presses. Make NO mistake they will keynesian this until stagflation stops them and we are not even close to the limiting factor of essential goods and services price explosions.

Ok OK.......throw your eggs now but I like SGG. Call me a candy ass but its been a good play since I started buying at 40. It has a beautiful pattern and I don't think sugar will leave us anytime soon. A lot of rum will be drank by the inhabitants of the carribean and gulf as they are transformed into a toxic waste dump. But then that is another story that is only a problem for the "small people".

This is what a total economic collapse looks like on a daily basis. If you say well this isn't so terrible.....then good. But I have some bad news with that observation. I have experienced personally recieving a near mortal wound. Had my wife not been present I would have certainly died. I had lost 35% of my blood volume and was starting to lose consciousness. I was able to give some last second instructions while my sensorium was clear. Right before I lost consciousness I recalled thinking....this isn't so bad....very peaceful. And on that note gl today gang..

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1277273100.php

update I... its howdy doody time.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1277323200.php

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

I HOPE I AM WRONG

All of the doom and gloom predicted is hopefully all going to be proven wrong. We can then say that the 07-09 market crash was only a distant memory and all about nothing. We will have been able to financially engineer our way through the 93 Trillion dollar public and private debt disaster that we have so willingly managed to accept. Our keynesian masters will have been successful in guiding us through a calamitous environmental disaster without any significant impact on jobs and the way of life of millions of inhabitants along our gulf coasts. The housing collapse will have been rectified through our governmental takeover of all housing mortgages through fanny and freddy (now 90 % of all new mortgages). Small business will gain gradual confidence in the economy and begin longer term capital expansion plans through new government lending programs and tax incentives (fought by the reps so that isn't going to happen). Velocity of money (the number one problem) will resume without inflation and the Fed can restore interest rates to control inflation (including the 10 year)....of course that would explode the interest payment on the debt projected to be at 28% of the yearly budget by 2014....and that is if interest on the 10 year remains where it is today...gl gang....thanks Ian for the link ...note his final sentence.....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/211202-niall-ferguson-u-s-fiscal-crisis-will-likely-occur-within-2-years?source=hp_wc

If the world comes to an end, I want to be in Cincinnati. Everything comes there ten years later.
Mark Twain

Monday, June 21, 2010

CRUSH EM LIKE A BUG update I

As advertised this year will be a "trader's year". No buy and hold to the moon moves like 2009. This year instead will take out all the stops. This is the year that only one house is the casino and the "small people" will only be thrown scraps. Hedge funds not in the game will be thrown to the scrap heap this year. GS will be handing out another big year end bonus this year...but most players will get lumps of coal. This game is about survival. The renewal and growth promised for delivery to the masses will be tepid, but the promise will remain strong. It's all about the promise now. But do not be frightened...there will be still be a strong media to give you hope. Confidence is still the real struggle that the PTB is trying to turn around. At least that is what the politicians believe will restore economic growth. The real power knows the outcome. Their plans are not based on pretend and extend.

As predicted by the Kress Cycle we will enjoy another 12 months or so of "vigor". Our day to day routines will be altered to some degree, but the comments of "this isn't so bad" in many areas continue to be heard as we get closer to the end game. I like the game. What I won't like is the end of the game. It will not be a time of joy. It will be a time of profound stress. In what form it may present will remain to be seen...but it will not be a time to rejoice.

Joe believes that we will come out of it for the better. I choose to remain positive.... but perhaps not as sanguine as Joe in the eventuality of paying the piper. All good things must come to an end and I have a hard time seeing how our excess will not be severely punished.

Remember the trade....miners still look strong...SGG has pulled back. yum yum...eat em up. gl gang

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1277100540.php

update I..... Show "no emotion".....this is a traders market gang....ignore the noise and take your profit on the overbought conditions....I like the analysis in this link......read it.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1277128800.php

Saturday, June 19, 2010

INSURMOUNTABLE OBSTACLES update II

As we continue to focus on the Euro debt problem and ignore the largest debtor nation........us. When you add all of our true debt...which in fact must include our liabilities or unfunded mandates, we are a monster explosion lurking. "A liability, or debt, is simply “the obligation of one person or group to provide future goods to another person or group.” Thus, for the discerning economist, it is rather irrelevant if the government “considers” or “officially calls” them liabilities. As far as their impact on human action is concerned, and thus all that economics cares about, they are debts. This brings the total US debt up to around $93 trillion (with total public debt at around $54 trillion)."

This is NOT going away and will only be tolerated as long as the dollar maintains its world reserve currency status. In other words how long can we service our debt with the printing press through QE/monetization. This is the only game we have right now and as long as we can stay on the high wire........we can extend and pretend. That is where EW and any rational fundemental analysis of our market is having trouble now. The commitment of the Central Banks to a policy of fighting off a deflationary collapse cannot be factored in by many analysis. The fiat monetary system still is a power to be reckoned with and not to be underestimated. Politically, a deflationary collapse is suicide, not to mention the "real" effects in our social order. Immred's and Analyze et al. comments on its dire consequences are not to be scoffed at. It will be a very harsh shock to the current living standards that we have now. Ultimately though, this will have to occur to wash out the system of debt....just as a forest fire destroys the old growth and allows new growth to emerge. It's nature. It's necessary.

So as this "unwinding" occurs and you argue with cohorts and friends whether or not a crash is imminent, and "who" is responsible....don't forget to look at your own house. Are you "talking" or are you preparing for yourself, family, or loved ones. It's fine to bring the "good news" to your cohorts, but most do not wish to hear your insight. If they are recptive then of course try and give constructive ideas for them to use. But don't forget that the "sheeple" have been conditioned for decades to believe in the Easter Bunny. They are so confused with half truths and twisted logic that simple concise logic no longer has an impact on them. Its much easier to continue to eat from the trough of ignorance than to look at approaching storm of truth. Do not forget the quote..."you can't handle the truth".

It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native criminal class except Congress.
Mark Twain

update I careful what you wish for.......this could also result in the eventual weakening of the USD global reserve status...without that the US will have to face a halt to the QE machine.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4z6eDGIjkAw&pos=1

update II.....How high will gold go???

http://www.dailymarkets.com/contributor/2010/06/19/gold-going-to-parabolic-top-of-10000-by-2012/

Friday, June 18, 2010

TROUBLE IN DOO DA TODAY update II

The Fed is not having a nice bowl of oatmeal this morning. Gold breaking out to new highs is a harbinger of trouble for the game. Can they keep it below 1300 for any length of time? Doubt it. Right now they are looking at a much higher level to hold....probably the 1500. This level will trigger pychological stops not to mention trouble with the JPM short positions. We are also at the level where physical delivery demand from the COMEX could trigger a run. To mention that the boyz are not happy with the breakout price today is an understatement. If you want a tell how much trouble they are in watch for any daily moves over 30 dollars ....that means big trouble.

Most of you are more interested in the short term consequences on the miners and when this begins to translate into them. In case you haven't been paying attention EGO ANV GFI are ripping. What you may want to pay closer attention to is the spill over into the silver miner plays SSRI and SLW. I am still expecting the most explosive move in the silve miners this year. I still own PAL and have traded out of most SWC.

Added to SGG for my soft commodity play yesterday. That should still have a nice move.

Don't let the smoke from the hearings yesterday fool you. BP completely owns congress. The 20 billion is a joke. It was paid because it was in THEIR best interest. Their stations are in trouble in the US and world. They could care less about the small man except how the small man buys his gas. O gave them assurance that their top execs were immune from the criminal investigation.....they will chop the head off of the project manager.

All of this is completely mute as the real catastrophe in the gulf area unfolds. Millions of lives are and will be impacted in an incredible way....and with that note.....gl

update I NOT promoting silver but this bears a lot of focus here. One of the primary questions I have will be what breaks silver out. Will it be print money trying to reinflate the dying economy or will it be the flight to an alternate currency factor?? Or maybe just maybe someone calls the bluff of the Central Banks short on the COMEX and demands physical delivery. One thing is certain I prefer to place my bet on the long side of silver over the intermediate and long term.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1276888904.php

update II..from Julianne Phillips......
Gold is at a new record high at $1,260 having broken up out of resistance at $1,250. The air is resistance-free up here. We are getting to the point where it is not a matter of how high it will go, but why is it going there? We have to understand the financial demand for gold now [Which is where the Gold Forecaster specializes and discusses in all issues].



As Spain now joins the list of nations, in Europe, [plus the U.K.] take measures to cut their deficits amid signs that growth will certainly suffer in a world where the recovery is now turning L-shaped. Gold will rise in deflation and uncertainty. The trouble is first, the banks messed up and now it’s governments who have. There’s no one after them left in this financial system. And the market is not buying the hype telling us, ‘all will be well’.



Silver has broken up to $19.20 up nearly a $ but has a long way to go still, to ‘catch up’ to gold.”

Thursday, June 17, 2010

THE COAST IS CLEAR

As in the gold market ......not the Gulf Coast. Watch for upward pressure on the market to form the right shoulder. After that watch for a fake breakout. A long daily tail on the candle would be nice to rattle the short bus. Don't get too caught up in this SnP play. Concentrate on the miners. We could get a prolonged miner run in spite of SnP volatility. The miners could decouple for a time here. At least I want you to be aware that getting too light on your core in the near term might backfire. Obviously physical gold is being bought heavy on any weakness. Its a problem for the ponzi. They may exit their shorts and drive it over 1300 in the near term. Waatch for that.

TXB is correct about the oil spill. This is a monster. It is a historical disaster. There are a lot of shenanigans that occurred prior to the final blowout. Do not count on getting the full truth. However if you believe that criminal charges will be filed ....forget about it. That was the deal that was made with BP yesterday. Thats why Tony was joyful in the parking lot when they left the meeting.

Have fun.......don't forget SLW SSRI ANV EGO GFI........trying to trade ORA NBR per joes picks, Joe is also kicking butt playing ATPG, what a nice short squeeze since ATPG hit $8.....gl gang

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

CONSEQUENCES

If there were a physics law of nature of "perfect order" then we may not be having this conversation. But in fact the law of nature that controls our universe is one of random order. We have in fact a nature's law of "for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction". For those of you that have not had a science backround these laws are not the same laws that are made by attorney's in a statehouse in the clutches of the bet healed lobbyist. These laws are Nature's laws. These laws were not made by man. Over a period of thousands of years of civilized man's development.....enough brilliant minds eventually discovered these absolutes. We as uninformed masses can debate topics like global warming, air pollution, water pollution, unsustainable resources, etc.....but our level of scientific expertise to make these analysis could hardly be classified as even marginal. So we try and fit our expectations and ideology into a package that allows us to proceed through our mundane existences with a sense of confidence and security. That is human nature. It cannot look within itself as a source of much of what is currently occurring in the gulf. Our own greed and lack of individual responsibility is in many ways as responsible for our current situation as are the multinational companiies that mine the resources.

For years scientists and environmentalists have warned of the likelihood of a devastating accident with the deep water offshore drilling. They were completely ignored. Sounds familiar doesn't it. But Nature has no timetable. Whether it was a hurricane, an earthquake/tsunami, or just your run of the mill oil pocket from hell......there was going to be a price to pay. We can play judge, jury, and executioner now......but its too late. This is over. There will be no "fix". When the President promises to make us "whole"again. Sorry.....that is rhetoric only. How much money does it take to make you "whole" after the loss of a child. You are never whole. So how do you make whole estuaries that took thousands of years to develop....now destroyed or in the process of being destroyed. How do you clean an ocean of an interminable quantity of oil that may wash onto gulf beaches for years to come. How do you restore the food chain if somehow the oil were ever removed from the gulf. I watch mouth=pieces like Joe Kiernen on CNBC continue to defend our country's lack of a comperhensive energy policy with Jack Welch....Can you imagine the audacity to ridicule the effort to provide alternative energy policy in the middle of the greatest disaster in ou lifetime. Heeheheheh.... of course you can. This is why we are a world gone mad. The inmates are in charge of the asylum. This is the end of days. This is how it looks. There is a light at the end of the tunnel and we are all smiling as the pollyanna spin of the ponzi wants us to. Its just that the light at the end of the tunnel is a ........gl and enjoy....you aren't going to change this train.

I will continue to pretend that we get through this......so holding my core of miners ANV GFI EGO SLW SSRI.....will try and trade SGY now.. Holding SGG. .....but Physical gold must be held.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

BUILDING "STRENGTH"

Joe and Red's call on buying ALU around 2.30 has been paying real well, ALU over 2.80 now. SGY has also done well after it hit $11, currently trading over $14. Market continues to tread water as algobots chew up positions. Remember....the print machine will not stop in the near term...they will continue this reinflation effort until they reach the limits of nature. Right now the prices of essential remain under control. They will rise inexorably as this effort proceeds, which is why I like the soft commod sugar (SGG). Oil looks to be on another trek up too. I prefer sugar over oil. High sugar prices won't collapse eonomies, just create cavities. My core of miners is still looking solid as they manipulate and consolidate. The Gulf remains the wild card, but I believe its full impact will not be realized for months and years...so it should allow the ponzi to develop a little more....but it bears your constant scrutiny. It is a Black Swan event.

The rest is all noise. War talk is diversion so forget it right now. Keep your eyes on the Fed and right now ....all lights signal green...as in fresh green print money as far as the eye can see. Essentials will continue to feel pressure, but until they explode....its game on. enjoy gl and have fun....I am

Monday, June 14, 2010

Heheeeee, now it all comes together

WASHINGTON — The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.
The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe. An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys. The vast scale of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth was discovered by a small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists. The Afghan government and President Hamid Karzai were recently briefed, American officials said. While it could take many years to develop a mining industry, the potential is so great that officials and executives in the industry believe it could attract heavy investment even before mines are profitable, providing the possibility of jobs that could distract from generations of war.
“There is stunning potential here,” Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of the United States Central Command, said in an interview on Saturday. “There are a lot of ifs, of course, but I think potentially it is hugely significant.” The value of the newly discovered mineral deposits dwarfs the size of Afghanistan’s existing war-bedraggled economy, which is based largely on opium production and narcotics trafficking as well as aid from the United States and other industrialized countries. Afghanistan’s gross domestic product is only about $12 billion. “This will become the backbone of the Afghan economy,” said Jalil Jumriany, an adviser to the Afghan minister of mines.
American and Afghan officials agreed to discuss the mineral discoveries at a difficult moment in the war in Afghanistan. The American-led offensive in Marja in southern Afghanistan has achieved only limited gains. Meanwhile, charges of corruption and favoritism continue to plague the Karzai government, and Mr. Karzai seems increasingly embittered toward the White House. So the Obama administration is hungry for some positive news to come out of Afghanistan. Yet the American officials also recognize that the mineral discoveries will almost certainly have a double-edged impact. Instead of bringing peace, the newfound mineral wealth could lead the Taliban to battle even more fiercely to regain control of the country.
The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government could also be amplified by the new wealth, particularly if a handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the president, gain control of the resources. Just last year, Afghanistan’s minister of mines was accused by American officials of accepting a $30 million bribe to award China the rights to develop its copper mine. The minister has since been replaced. Endless fights could erupt between the central government in Kabul and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral-rich districts. Afghanistan has a national mining law, written with the help of advisers from the World Bank, but it has never faced a serious challenge. “No one has tested that law; no one knows how it will stand up in a fight between the central government and the provinces,” observed Paul A. Brinkley, deputy undersecretary of defense for business and leader of the Pentagon team that discovered the deposits. At the same time, American officials fear resource-hungry China will try to dominate the development of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, which could upset the United States, given its heavy investment in the region. After winning the bid for its Aynak copper mine in Logar Province, China clearly wants more, American officials said. Another complication is that because Afghanistan has never had much heavy industry before, it has little or no history of environmental protection either. “The big question is, can this be developed in a responsible way, in a way that is environmentally and socially responsible?” Mr. Brinkley said. “No one knows how this will work.”
With virtually no mining industry or infrastructure in place today, it will take decades for Afghanistan to exploit its mineral wealth fully. “This is a country that has no mining culture,” said Jack Medlin, a geologist in the United States Geological Survey’s international affairs program. “They’ve had some small artisanal mines, but now there could be some very, very large mines that will require more than just a gold pan.” The mineral deposits are scattered throughout the country, including in the southern and eastern regions along the border with Pakistan that have had some of the most intense combat in the American-led war against the Taliban insurgency.


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html?no_interstitial

Sunday, June 13, 2010

BLACK SWAN NOW OFFICIAL

A unanimous conclusion of the entire staff of the Daily Market News determined that a Black swan event in the Gulf is conclusive. There is no need to run into the street and shout it to your neighbors, the mainstream media will maintain their paint job of hope as relayed to them by their corporate masters. On the other hand you need to be aware of the implications for you and yours. Nature's law dictates that the piper is to be payed. We cannot destroy our precious natural resources indefinitely without ultimately paying a price. We indeed have finally tripped the trigger of no return. Many of us thought it would be nuclear war...and it still may..but nature has its own time table and there is no way to predict its outcome. This detonation has occurred and as it unwinds the full effects will not be known for years, however the true potential will become more apparent to even the most optimistic pollyanna within a few months.

We can debate how bad it will be, but that is an exercise in futility. Plan for the worse, hope for the best. High oil prices for certain are coming down the road. Again, timing can vary by a couple of years. Food prices will soar with energy prices and food chain disruptions. Currency dislocations will impact many developed nations that have relied upon the fiat ponzi. Internal social order will unravel without a strong military order imposed....and it will. Do not expect revolution. In my opinion, it has a low probability. Social disorder on the other hand will occur. Personal crimes will explode, as families suffer.

Many of you have thought of going to the country or even out of the country. Be careful. The neighbors you know may be better than the ones you don't. Begin building your non-perishables now. Food dislocations could become rampant quickly. I am not expecting that but "quickly" is a nebulous term in this case.

Watch mainstream media if you can on the evening news to get an idea of what the masters are telling the sheeple, it does give you public sentiment. gl gang

Saturday, June 12, 2010

ENJOY THE SUMMER

In keeping with my particularly negative slant I want all of you to enjoy this summer. It may mark the high water mark for the collapse. Everything including the kitchen sink is being thrown at the collapse. It may succeed. At least there is a remote possibility. However there may be a tooth fairy. I cannot say there is not with absolute certainty. As noted by those of you who follow the public message boards, recent long time posters are showing the strain of the ponzi and its only a matter of time until most traders are destroyed. If you stay in this market....and for now I still am......you do so at the greatest risks. Public sentiment will continue to deteriorate this year. The gulf is an absolute unmitigated catastrophe. Most people have NO idea how bad this will become. I doubt that most of you really are aware of the derivative damage this will produce. I like a soft commodity play here too while I am at it.....check it out SGG......All of these are trades but this one might be a nice intermediate hold.....on the other hand as Red says...if its a paper asset WATCH OUT. This is a desperate time. I remember my UNG asset last year.....I finally took my losses and said never again. Great articles out there on the masters ...use your google and do your own investigation. gl gang

http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1274763840.php

Friday, June 11, 2010

FINANCIAL ENGINEERING update II

This is a continued effort of the PTB to maintain the ponzi. Nothing different. Expect this trading range to persist inspite of terrible economic news. This is the face of a fiat monetary system that is controlled by central power. All is directly or indirectly coordinated to deliver the desired effect. The desired effect is to try to maintain CONfidence. The only question is when do they do the final rinse. Try and trade it if you wish, but its designed to destroy positions long and short. I have my core I trade around on, but physical gold is your only safe asset, and you had better know how to protect it. Great article by Rockwell today....

As with all government plans, Bretton Woods was dealing with symptoms rather than causes, and treating those symptoms in a way that enables and even encourages the disease. It pegged currencies at unrealistic levels, provided a bailout mechanism for governments and banking establishments to continue to do what they should not be doing, and thereby prolonged the problems and made them worse in the long run.

Governments have been throwing our good money after bad for a very long time. The plan, just as with the latest round of bailouts in the U.S. or Europe, was to dump money on near-bankrupt countries and thereby encourage them to continue with the very policies and practices that created the problem to begin with.

The core problem of the world monetary system after World War II was essentially that the gold standard had broken down, or rather, government had destroyed what remained of the old-fashioned gold standard through relentless inflation, debt, and devaluation. Economists in the Keynesian tradition had encouraged this, viewing money creation as some sort of panacea for all that ailed the world economy.

Keynes, the maestro of the Bretton Woods Conference, himself had recommended this and celebrated the results. To him, a flexible and standard-less currency was the key to macroeconomic manipulation of his beloved aggregates. In a perverse way, he was right about this. A government on the gold standard is seriously constrained. It can't take a sledgehammer to aggregate supply and aggregate demand. It can't spend beyond its means. It must pay for the programs it creates through taxation, which means having to curb the appetite for welfare and warfare. There can be no such thing as a Keynesian state on the gold standard, any more then a cocaine addict or compulsive gambler can be on a strict budget.

http://news.goldseek.com/LewRockwell/1276236780.php

update I.... i don't remember if I posted this but bought this several days ago and take a look its got a ways to run imo

http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/06/sgg-give-me-some-sugar-.html

update II .........

http://seekingalpha.com/article/209569-3-silver-miner-stocks-to-watch?source=dashboard_stocks-sectors

Thursday, June 10, 2010

AND THEN THERE WAS BLOOD update I

As in short blood. My concern over being short in this market was validated by today's wicked short squeeze at the opening. If your shorts had stops you were picked clean. Set up by the classic GS plan of media down-playing the market with downgrades and a beautifully orchestrated weak close last nite. Confirmed the bears negative sentiment and technicals....drawing in the bears for the gap and go in the morning. This is why the risk of shorting this must be measured very carefully.

Lets watch the close but my guess is they may have a couple of weeks of overall strength before things get rough. This is only a traders market now. Hold your core of miners and keep 50% cash here. If we form the right shoulder of 1140 here it would fit my time frame of the market resuming continued weakness in July. Play this game at your own risk. I will continue to accumulate physical gold on weakness.

Here is a nice summary....Gold is currently trading at $1,223/oz and in euro, GBP, CHF, and JPY terms, at €1,017/oz, £840/oz, CHF 1,402/oz, JPY 111,318/oz respectively.

Gold has fallen in all currencies today as traders have taken profits after the recent surge in prices. Gold priced in euros, UK pounds, Swiss francs and US dollars surged to record nominal highs on Tuesday on demand for a store of value. Concerns of a global economic slowdown allied with fears that debt laden European countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Hungary could default and lead to contagion have led to safe haven demand for gold in recent weeks. While Asian equities were mostly up overnight (except China despite healthy export figures), European indices are lower today after yesterday's slight falls in US indices. Gold's inverse correlation with equities over the long term is again being seen. Since mid April equities internationally, including the benchmark US indices the S&P 500, have broken down while gold has risen.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1276174800.php

update I nice trade advice

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1276196674.php

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

AUTO PILOT

Market remains on hold as the central bank pilot tries to maintain altitude without touching the power (ie QE). Right now I see clear skies ahead with one problem...without returning to QE (ie heavy printing) the ground is approaching fast. Do not be confused here. This market is NOT going to collapse here. It is still under control. Can they dump it to hell???.....sure. But not yet. Be patient and keep your eye on the Fed. It's giving you you're answer. There is NO choice but to print for them. They are committed to the Ponzi and will of course continue their course. This is a demonstration for the Obama and Volker to determine how much political pain they can take. It shouldn't take long. By the end of the summer the press's will start to show signs of life. Stay patient. Meanwhile accumulate physical gold. I like a core of miners ANV EGO GFI AUY SSRI SLW.....I own others but these are some of my favorites...also have heavy SGY here.

here is my excerpt today .....

Having said that, not 10 in 100 hard core Gold bulls understands that a deflationary collapse is extremely bullish for Gold. Gold is real money and is not backed by debt, rather backed by the knowledge that apparatchiks and their central bankstaz will do the exact wrong thing when things get darkest: punish those who bought into their promises. Punish those who saved their wealth in the fancy paper notes of the land, whether obligations of the government (i.e. government bonds) or their central bankstaz (i.e. currency notes). How many millions of people have been burned by holding their life savings in paper money only to see the value of those saving destroyed by a one-time decree? How many people who held Gold through such times regretted it?

Governments are self-serving beasts with an insatiable appetite for growth that makes many of their keiretsu central banksta partners blush. However, the bankstaz know that debt is debt and it all pays the same interest. Government debt is actually more likely to pay if you are a central banksta and you will be notified in advance if a default is coming, unlike with those darn private borrowers that just walk away! Pusher and addict in a circle jerk of love that ignores the common citizens, who should, of course, eat cake.

When we get to the bottom of the current secular stock bear market, price to earnings (no, not operating earnings) ratios and dividend yields in the Dow and S&P 500 should both be in the high single digits. If you stay invested in general stocks until that point, you won't have much money left to buy stocks cheaply when the sale occurs. If you stay in Gold, you will be able to purchase 500-1000% more stocks than your paperbug neighbor in the "keep up with the Jones'" sweepstakes. Those stocks reflect real wealth if those businesses actually pay a decent dividend and are primed for growth by getting lean and mean enough to survive intact on the other side of this secular bear, which is far from over. In the mean time, the only stocks to consider for a buy and hold are those of the Gold mining firms that dig money out of the ground.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1276090614.php

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

AND THE BEAT GOES ON update II

This is all pre-programmed by the Fed. The job of bringing the market up to the 61.8 fib was achieved and coincidentally the Fed chief Genghis Ben announced that Quantitative easing would be suspended to test Market functioning. We will go through a further period of weakness until the Fed decides enough is enough. Understand that what I am telling you is not a secret, but whether or not they would actually do it was always in question...since of course they are "liars and thieves". But of course that is not important since that is the game and if you wish to play, then you must understand the participants. My crystal ball was good for the 61.8 fib prediction, but this is not my strong point now. Expect GS to slap these trades both ways so a strong rally near term is expected. On the other hand GS will wait until the QE returns for any major push to glory. So strong rallies should be sold until the fall. I will hold my core of miners, but will reduce exposure on resistance retests so keep an eye on those numbers.

The real fly in the ointment is the Gulf. It cannot be underestimated in its longer term effect on the country. Public sentiment is devolving quickly over it and has been stated here a number of times the cabal has nothing but CONfidence to perpetuate and they are losing it fast. Nature is a biatch for a Cabal..it cannot be bought, bribed, or manipulated.

Gold remains strong and should continue, but it CAN be manipulated here is an excerpt from Rick's picks.....

Gold quotes lurched sharply higher yesterday, and we take it as especially bullish that the news media tripped over their own feet trying to explain why. Reuters reported that prices surged because of “safe-haven demand due to ongoing fears about euro zone credit contagion.” How’s that for lame analysis? The Wall Street Journal didn’t do much better: “[G]old made a sudden, sharp move higher, a jump many attributed to fears of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.” Shouldn’t someone point out to these guys that the euro held its own yesterday for a rare change and that that is surely an odd way for traders to have expressed their supposed anxiety over Europe’s financial fate? Another talking head who apparently didn’t get it was Bart Melek, a global commodity strategist for some firm: “It’s a bizarre move,” Melek told the Journal. “Fundamentally,” he said, “we really have not seen many things today” that could justify such a big jump.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1276009200.php

update II words of wisdom quote off of jesse....this is for some of my trader friends currently trying to trade the gold bull

For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well. But what else did I do? Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kitting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never go broke taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market." Jesse Livermore

Monday, June 7, 2010

ENJOY THE GAME update I

Hopefully you have managed to add to your core holdings of the gold miners you like on these nice pullbacks. I may be way to heavy on my core here, but that saves me time watching the daily trade. The smart ones that read this blog are heavy into physical gold and are looking to add more if it pulls back ( I dont think we see below 1180)...We have a strengthening dollar with gold remaining very strong..this decoupling indicates a coming breakout to me. Once the dollar starts weakening again ...and it will...gold should resume its rise. Silver may get some further down side but it also looks to be coiling for another bump up. These PM's are all still controlled to some extent by the central banks so I don't expect an outright parabolic move, but you have to wonder if JPM unwinds their shorts the cover action could become extreme. Weak hands will be forced out of miners so those of you with cash left can look for a nice buy opportunity....but I still like owning a strong core at these levels. My timing is far from impeccable. One thing I am sure of the print money is going to come fast and furious this year and quantitative easing is their ONLY game... gl gang...

update I surprise of course to no one but a very nice read...

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1275958800.php
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Saturday, June 5, 2010

THE COST OF MAKING THE GULF "WHOLE"

President Obama promised to make the residents of the gulf whole. Well.....I think that will be a tall order. After doing some rough calculations assuming the area will return to full production in 20 years (it won't). Assuming that real estate values are restored on those beautiful pristine white sand beaches of Destin, Naples etc...Assuming tourists return when the oil stops washing into the beaches in 20 years (it won't). Assuming the millions of acres of estuarial land that is washed into the ocean during the next few years is returned in 20 years (it Can't)....I come up with a rough figure of just under 21 Trillion over the next 20 years. I believe that BP can afford that ......hehehehe. Oh wait...thatza a lotta money. Sorry... I guess reality is a bitch isn't it? Perhaps this just might be a Black Swan event.

You may not like "Doom n Gloom". Tough shit. This is reality. Guys like John Cash and JD Davidson are not liberal tree hugging commie pinkos....and they have correctly pointed out the incalculable disaster headed our way..We have further potential as the toxic waste dump of our precious resource "the Gulf Coast" is migrating around Florida and heading to the Outter Banks resourse and the Atlantic estuaries....enjoy the weekend...gl

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-05/obama-says-gulf-coast-communities-will-be-made-whole-after-bp-oil-spill.html

Friday, June 4, 2010

Who Will Profit From Oil Spill

The oil spill will be a very expensive setback for all the players involved in offshore production; we’ve already seen that reflected in their stock prices. In the near term, offshore exploration and production companies and the oil services companies will show margin erosion as they digest higher costs. In the medium term, some companies will pull up stakes and move completely into non-U.S. offshore projects, as they’ll realize the cost of doing business in the U.S. outweighs any potential gains. The market might be overreacting, but we’re not convinced these depressed stocks represent good value. While it’s possible there are some good bargains, it’s still too early to consider speculating in any offshore-related companies. Specifically, the threat of increased regulation, massive tax increases, and rising insurance costs will create a hostile environment for these companies going forward. Instead of risking your capital on so many unknowns, a prudent alternative is to look at energy producers in the renewable energy sector. The oil spill has only strengthened the current administration’s resolve to make greener energies supply a larger chunk of America’s energy needs in lieu of traditional fossil fuels. Congress is doing its part by giving huge subsidies to companies in this field. There are a lot of renewable options that will benefit from the subsidies and political wrangling, but our current favorite by a long shot is geothermal power. Of all the renewables, we think geothermal has the best upside potential. Based on economics and efficiency alone – unlike wind and solar energy, geothermal is reliable for round-the-clock generation and is already price competitive with fossil fuels without any subsidies – geothermal outperforms competing renewable technologies. Add the government subsidies on top of the existing good economics and the pot gets even sweeter in the short term. Once the spill is finally contained, attention will shift to previously low-key renewables, like geothermal, and soon after the market will recognize geothermal as the clear winner.

This one from Joe:

I like geothermal sector and the company folks need to pay close attention is ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES ( ORA). Take a look at current direct buys by the CEO end of May( almost 100K shares at $28, this is an excellent sign, also during March of 09 when S&P dropped to 666 ORA retraced to $24 a share. Currently ORA trades at $27 a share:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=ORA+Insider+Transactions

ORA is at the top of top 10 open market share purchase by their CEO, check it out:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10774831/1/stericycle-director-sells-206m-worth.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA



http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ora

Ormat Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the geothermal and recovered energy power business worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Electricity and Product. The Electricity segment develops, builds, owns, and operates geothermal and recovered energy-based power plants, as well as sells electricity. The Product segment designs, manufactures, and sells equipment for geothermal and recovered energy-based electricity generation; remote power units; and other power generating units, including heavy duty direct current generators and fossil fuel powered turbo-generators. It provides services relating to the engineering, procurement, construction, operation, and maintenance of geothermal and recovered energy power plants. This segment’s customers include owners and operators of interstate natural gas pipelines, gas processing plants, and cement plants; and companies engaged in energy-intensive industrial processes. Ormat Technologies, Inc. has a joint venture agreement with Sunday Energy Ltd. to develop, construct, and operate solar-photovoltaic energy systems with a total capacity of 36 megawatts in Israel. The company was founded in 1965 and is based in Reno, Nevada. Ormat Technologies, Inc. is a subsidiary of Ormat Industries Ltd.

JOBS NUMBERS A DISASTER update II

This will insure further stimulus and print money...Absolutely a disaster. This will insure that another reinflation effort fitting with a massive influx of fiat within the next few months. The CNBC spinners are trying but they cannot spin this. Watch for action in the near term to stabilize the reinflation trade. Should be a bloody opeining of the market but as usual be cautious....they want the shorts in this market...they have meat on their bones.

update I....for another view of the jobs numbers

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2010/06/tracking-the-job-trackers-june-4-2010.html

update II Jesse makes me laugh

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/06/sp-daily-chart-looking-ugly.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29

Thursday, June 3, 2010

NBR

NBR will do very well, 15,000 full time employee, liquidity in the stock is well and it's all land drilling, no offshore.

Nabors Industries Ltd. operates as a land drilling contractor worldwide. It conducts oil, gas, and geothermal land drilling operations in the United States Lower 48 states, Alaska, Canada, South America, Mexico, the Caribbean, the Middle East, the Far East, Russia, and Africa. The company also operates as a land well-servicing and workover contractor in the United States and Canada. In addition, Nabors Industries provides offshore platform workover and drilling rigs that offer well-servicing, workover, and drilling services. Further, the company offers a range of ancillary well-site services, including engineering, transportation, construction, maintenance, well logging, directional drilling, rig instrumentation, data collection, and other support services; and logistics services for onshore drilling in Canada using helicopters and fixed-winged aircraft. Additionally, it manufactures and leases or sells top drives for a range of drilling applications, directional drilling systems, rig instrumentation and data collection equipment, pipeline handling equipment, and rig reporting software. Nabors Industries also invests in oil and gas exploration, development, and production activities. As of December 31, 2009, its fleet consisted of approximately 542 land drilling rigs, 558 domestic and 172 international land workover and well-servicing rigs, 40 offshore platform rigs, 13 jack-up units, and 3 barge rigs, as well as various trucks and fluid hauling vehicles. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nbr

RIDE UM COWBOY update III

The news regarding Iran moving into gold is giving the central bankers fits. They are buying in the open market and that creates real problems for the much bigger shadow market in gold bullion that the cabal deals in. Purchasing gold at 1225 vs the cabal's shadow market price of double that is not the way the cabal wants business done. The question is how many more countries will buttress their own accounts with this move as reserve currencies begin to convulse. The dollar can sustain its strength relative to its export competitors only so long, before the strain on our multinationals begins to take its toll.

June 2 (Reuters) - The Iranian central bank has announced that it will sell 45 billion euros from its foreign exchange reserves to buy dollars and gold, China's official Xinhua news agency reported on Wednesday, citing unspecified Iranian media reports.

Currencies | Bonds | Global Markets

Xinhua said that the sales would be conducted in three stages and that the first had already begun, citing unnamed sources.

It also said that other Gulf states had also started cutting their euro


Watch the gold price when the print money and dollar devaluation comes into play in a few months....we haven't really talked about the dollar deval coming on gold price since gold decoupled from the dollar strengthening move. Physical is and WILL continue to be bought....gl gang use your precious fiat to protect yourself now....

update I in keeping with the future.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/208281-anticipating-peak-oil

update II baby kim still not playing ball

(Reuters) - A North Korean envoy warned on Thursday that war could erupt at any time on the divided Korean peninsula because of tension with Seoul over the sinking of a South Korean warship in March.

World

"The present situation of the Korean peninsula is so grave that a war may break out any moment," Ri Jang Gon, North Korea's deputy ambassador in Geneva, told the United Nations-sponsored Conference on Disarmament.

Ri repeated Pyongyang's denial that North Korea had nothing to do with the sinking of the Cheonan warship which killed 46 sailors -- the deadliest military incident since the Korean War.

South Korea has accused North Korea of firing a torpedo at the vessel and has vowed to bring the case to the U.N. Security Council.

Ri accused South Korea of trying to create a shocking incident in order to ignite a campaign against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), North Korea's official name.

update III oh yea of little faith......hehehhe...gotta love Jesse to put it in perspective...

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

BEAT DOWN update I

Pressure remains on metals and commods as dollar strengthening with euro and japan uncertainty. ie...same old same old. Look for continued sideways action on market with bottoming in PMs tryings to form here. This is how a global collapse feels. Not so bad. So I think the doomers have to give the PTB their due. They can do more than put some lipstick on a pig. I was in a discussion with a business owner here the other day. He was relatively young and had not even experienced a real recession in his lifetime. He looked at me directly after a couple of beers and said ..." so you are telling me that this REALLY feels like a depression"? He had a point. I could have responded that of course not unless you are one of the 16.7% U6 unemployed...but what's the point. This is how print money and media control work for the PTB. It really in some ways may have a certain utility to it. I guess I can rationalize about anything. One way or another though..I have found that ultimately truth is the better pathway in the the longer term. Of course one way or another Nature will prevail for better or worse. So my 2 cents is relatively meaningless. Until the euro stabilizes or turns then the PMs miners will remain under pressure. My crystal ball tells me no major crash in the miners but at the same time the real turn may be several months away....As Joe said recently enjoy the summer. Look for the fall for a buy and hold long position. Meanwhile those of us still trying to trade this shorter term......gl.....you'll need it. GS does not want hedges in this market ..its too expensive to manipulate so watch for continued volatility.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1275458760.php

update I http://news.goldseek.com/FeaturedPR/1275504443.php

Power tends to confuse itself with virtue and a great nation is particularly susceptible to the idea that its power is a sign of God's favor, conferring upon it a special responsibility for other nations– to make them richer and happier and wiser, to remake them, that is, in its own shining image. Power confuses itself with virtue and tends also to take itself for omnipotence. Once imbued with the idea of a mission, a great nation easily assumes that it has the means as well as the duty to do God's work. J William Fulbright

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE update III

Sorry...it makes a great headline....but its not happening until the casino says it is. So enjoy your day....this is what the collapse looks like and feels like.

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose for a seventh day in London as the threat to growth from Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and declining equity prices spur demand for gold as a haven.

The euro slid against the dollar amid concern that mounting writedowns at Europe’s banks and efforts to reduce budget deficits will hamper the region’s economic recovery. European equities declined as China’s and Europe’s manufacturing growth slowed. Gold reached a record priced in Swiss francs.

“The fear factor is still in the marketplace and fleeing to gold is due to its safe-haven properties,” said Bayram Dincer, a commodity analyst at LGT Capital Management in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. “Investors will likely reduce equity exposure which makes gold investment a reasonable alternative.”

Gold for immediate delivery added $5.85, or 0.5 percent, to $1,222.05 an ounce at 11:40 a.m. in London. Bullion for August delivery was 0.7 percent higher at $1,223.60 on the Comex in New York.

Comex floor trading was closed yesterday for the Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. Yesterday’s electronic trades will be combined with today’s transactions for settlement purposes. The metal rose to $1,219.75 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,207.50 at the afternoon fixing on May 28.

Europe’s “got some deep structural issues that aren’t going to be solved any time in the near-term,” said Toby Hassall, a commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “So you’ll have a camp of investors out there that believe that things might get worse and they’re continuing to put a bid under gold.”

The metal climbed to a record 1,433.374 Swiss francs an ounce today.

update I... this is a must read if you are confused about the gold argument put out by the ill informed...many have no idea how their disinformation will impact them. Jesse and others understand this and are begging you to prepare....so am I.

Gold is the commodity that humans chose to be “money”- the most marketable good. It didn’t happen overnight, but over thousands of years of evolution. Billions of trading decisions over centuries made by free men of their own volition – the collective wisdom – installed Gold as money. It needs no government violence to enforce as money because the force of nature that is the market chose it to be money. Indeed, it was the governments who hijacked the free-market commodity money of Gold into “backing” their various fraudulent paper money scams using fractional reserve systems. Why? Because the power to create money is the ultimate power. It is not for no reason that Mayer Amschel Rothschild said:


“Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws.”

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1275372180.php

update II You won't hear this anywhere in the mainstream media, but in just the last few years, the People's Republic has made three major policy changes aimed at obtaining and keeping ever more of the world's gold supplies.

They are:

Secretly stockpiling gold — The People's Republic now holds 30 times more gold than it did 20 years ago. Last spring, the head of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Hu Xiaolian) grudgingly conceded to the Xinhua News Agency that the nation had bolstered its gold supplies by more than 70% since 2003. And they're nowhere near finished. The Vice General Secretary of the China Gold Association (Hou Huimin) advocates more than tripling China's gold reserves to 5000 metric tons. That's over $211 billion worth, in today's prices.
Lifting the moratorium on private precious metals ownership — For years, it was illegal for Chinese citizens to own raw gold or other precious metals. Recently, however, China's government has reversed its position on private metals ownership, and is even strongly encouraging people in the People's Republic to put at least 5% of their savings in gold and silver. They've even taken to the state-run media to promote this plan (it's on YouTube), while staking Chinese banks with gold and silver bullion bars in four denominations.
Strictly banning the export of gold bullion — Despite ranking around seventh in proven gold reserves, China has recently knocked off South Africa as the world's largest gold mining nation, with more than 330 new gold mines extracting 110,000 tons of gold-bearing ore per day. Aside from things like finished jewelry, new government polices prohibit the export of ANY of this raw gold. It's all staying in the country. China's also eyeing up the world's largest gold and copper deposit, in neighboring Mongolia. It just went online in October, according to Angel analyst Christian DeHaemer (here's how he's recommending you play it for up to 57 times your money).


http://seekingalpha.com/article/207922-china-s-switch-from-dollar-reserves-to-gold

update III

http://temo1051.blogspot.com/