Tuesday, January 25, 2011

LIONS AND TIGERS AND BEARS...OH MY! update I

Well hear we are gang....into 2011. Just another year to go and the Grand Supercycle washout begins. Toto we aren't in Kansas anymore. This is the real deal. This is where the rubbler meets the road. This is where the chit hits the fan. OK I quit...enough cliches lets get on with it. Seems a little surreal doesn't it. There are no massive food riots. You can't find the tent cities on youtube. Oil is still flowing and your local Starbucks is still serving $5 cups of coffee.

Just one problem. You have one big massive Ponzi going on. You have a government that is completely corrupt. You have an administration who's first act to give us the promised reform and transparency was to reappoint Ben Bernanke and appoitnt Tim Geitner as Sec Treasury, and Larry Summers to Council of Economic advisor. He pulled in all the usual Wall Street hacks as his advisors and called a special meeting with the top 7 bankers. Well.....so much for transparency and change.

After two years of "extend and pretend" you have the same massive malinvestment issues except WORSE. You have the same structural unemployment except NOW its a full 2 1/2 years of unemployed millions that have ZERO chance of coming back into the work force. Never since the Great Depression has this country had this issue. AND HOW are we dealing with it? QE ....That's right QE....buying our debt by printing money....So just relax. Take a chill pill. This game has a little longer to play out. Remember this is about money being pumped into the system. WE are NOT crashing tomorrow. Not without one big fochin Black Swan, and that cannot be forseen.

Keep watchin for the turn in the miners and read the comments for ideas. Right now ANV and SLW are getting close. Another 10% and maybe.....Buy real bullion and stay strong. Biotechs are speculative and that is EXACTLY why money will flow into them. Because that is what happens to "hot" money....it goes to beta sectors. PAY ATTENTION. ALSO URANIUM ... UEC USU URZ.... have fun....its only fiat.

update I.......shocking bloomberg Faber interview today....watch the video at the bottom...of the article...BOTH videos..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-fabers-most-provocative-interview-ever-compares-obama-prostitute-goes-long-treasurys?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

67 comments:

  1. http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

    ReplyDelete
  2. Question for PALMER JOE and KLI..IF YOU COULD ONLY BUY ONE STOCK THIS YEAR For biggest gains in your opinion which one would it be...For me it is LNG.CHEERS

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for keeping an eye on things Kli and Joe. I welcome a bit more PM downside before a reversal, so I can make some fire-and-forget additions to my core.

    Joe, do you expect equities in general to follow to the upside when silver's correction ends? My gut tells me to hold onto ALU some more, but if the PMs are ready to bounce maybe I'd be better off exchanging it for SLW..

    ReplyDelete
  4. Morla,

    During corrections Gold and silver corrects first prior to equities and also recovers faster than general equities, see if silver itself tests the support of 25, if it holds then SLW is good entry. 200ma for SLW is around 28, let's see if it holds.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Joe and Kli

    As we head into 2012 what do you think happens to the price of oil? I know Joe said 2012 is the last year to be long commodities.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Oil must reset here at least temporarily for the CONfidence of recovery to remain....BUT...with QE ...look for oil to remain at lofty levels in an 80 to 100 dollar channel this year.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Tom,

    I expect the price of oil drop once the stagflation gives in to deflationary depression. Gold and silver will initially get hammered during deflation, correction of 25% to 35% for price of physical initially during deflation and after that it will recover since Gold is used as safety net during deflation. Gold and silver stocks during deflation will get hammered severely and quickly but start recoverin faster than general equities, just like the scenario in 2008, 2009. Other commodities will be taken to the woodshed during severe deflation.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I'm seeing buying with volume now in slw....big boys accumulating

    ReplyDelete
  9. This drop in GORO is too big to be real, bought at 21.95 for a trade..

    ReplyDelete
  10. dj.......one stock for best gains...from a safety standpoint ANV or SLW.....higher risk....best gains UEC URZ

    ReplyDelete
  11. Suppose now's as good as time as any for the PM correction to end, like Maund says they wouldn't want to make it easy on technical traders. If not no big deal I'll just ignore the market for a week, paper losses are made of paper after all.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Right now I am looking at RNN, the cheaper the better, the fact that TEVA is in it makes it yummy, hope it falls to lower 1s.

    ReplyDelete
  13. picked up RNN this AM....will wait to see where they take it....

    ReplyDelete
  14. Volume strong in miners today....hehehhehe....sneaky baaastids...look at um sneak back in.....gotta see how they close

    ReplyDelete
  15. RNN is buy and hold and average down, 52 week low is 0.65 and high is close to 4, no debt, no need for dilution due to over $20M in cash and also the fact that TEVA loaded up at 1.69 means good stuff, patience is the key.

    ReplyDelete
  16. yep read that about RNN also another chp bio moving is rpc..ateva paid up....EU APPROVAL FOR MACHINE...Cool stuff...

    ReplyDelete
  17. ANY ONE CHK OUT IBCP Michigan bank low flaoter killed but up big this month..trying to move today...

    ReplyDelete
  18. RNN is one of those stocks that the down side at current price is already known, so average down in calculated chunks, MMs and shorts are your friend in this case.

    ReplyDelete
  19. The 50ma and the 200MA for RNN is $1.20

    ReplyDelete
  20. iPhone day trading from a bar in boines aires. Nibbling on Slw feb 31 calls

    ReplyDelete
  21. http://www.beaconequity.com/stock-on-top-rexahn-pharmaceuticals-2011-01-25/

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks Kli and Joe
    Joe are you still waiting on PZG at 2.25 or so? I always buy to early.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Tom,

    If PZG goes down to 2.25, I'll be a buyer, meanwhile SLW is getting interesting, tomorrow is option expiration time for metals.

    ReplyDelete
  24. I am watching the miners too. Wondering if HL could actually drop to 8 dollars. There is a bit of support there.
    The CCME chart appears to show a "Cup & Handle". Looks like it tried to break out today but no cigar.
    Will read about Joe's RNN tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  25. KLI thks for your answer earlier regarding what stocks...Cheers...

    ReplyDelete
  26. LOOK at the volume on miners....now SSRI EGO are green....this is very telling may just be accumulation....but the close will tell today

    ReplyDelete
  27. ego coming off a long term resistance area here.....hmmmm...should retest or a tad lower....may take a week here

    ReplyDelete
  28. CBST nice and green for those of you that notice......hehhehe

    ReplyDelete
  29. Ugh, they pummelled slw. Exk had a nice move, up 2.6%...it's hard to think it's anything but shenanigans when the dollar is below 78 again. Still waiting for pzg, pslv and phys. Sold alu today.

    ReplyDelete
  30. sister......Joe is licking his chops for SLW to got to 20.....he's greedy hehehe....I say it doesn't....but then I have cash ready if it does......Lots of leaves left to shake

    ReplyDelete
  31. Nancy,

    I see you are posting on SLW board, be aware, lots of paid hypers and bashers working for hedge funds post there, do not look for advice on yahoo public message boards. Let the market come to you as I said to you before, look for supports on silver charts and see if they are broken or hold. This is a good and necessary correction for silver.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Let's see if 200ma on SLW ( 28) holds the next couple of weeks or not, if it's broken then big boys can easily take it down to 24, lot of idiots are in margin and that's always a no no. Tomorrow would be interesting since it's OPEX for metals.

    ReplyDelete
  33. If you have patience here and can "wait" until the bottom is confirmed....ooooooboy...watta chance...If they can take SLW down another 4-5 pts...yum yum

    ReplyDelete
  34. Hi, Joe. Did you see my post that said are there serious posters here? Not worried about the silver/gold correction, but slw is an anolmaly--maybe I'll just go to see a bunch of movies until this passes, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Nancy,

    Yes I did and I know you are a smart lady, how ever I have seen smart people sometimes give in to the EMOTION and the moment which takes away their decision making. Stay sharp and well.

    ReplyDelete
  36. SLW is a good example of BEAR attack and too many folks with margins, i went from low of 2.5 in October of 2008 to high of 42 end of last yr so it makes sense that there was lots of piling especially by late comers and now the other side of the COIN is being played out.

    ReplyDelete
  37. typo , " It went from low of 2.5", not i went.

    ReplyDelete
  38. OMG, what just happened to gold???

    ReplyDelete
  39. Looks like a Mr. bot-happiness took it down, then up!

    ReplyDelete
  40. Waiting for the final flush in SLW, should be just shy of the 200 dma for a brief period. Very coordinated attack on commodities, but with France publicly involved you can almost guarantee a quick capitulation.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Red,

    If $28 on SLW holds and you see a sharp turn from there with heavy volume then short term flush is done.

    ReplyDelete
  42. What I always liked about SLW as a company is their unique business model, it's not a miner, it's core approach is in buying already excavated ores from miners like GG, PAAS, ABX,,etc and then extract silver from it. It's not leveraged and currently has 15 silver purchase agreements and two precious metals agreements where it has the right to purchase all or a portion of the silver production at a low fixed cost from high-quality mines located in politically stable regions. Company's estimation is 40 million silver equivalent ounces of annual production by 2013, from about 23.5 million silver equivalent ounces in 2010

    ReplyDelete
  43. Daily technicals on SLW are at there lowest levels in almost 2 years, a massive short squeeze is being set up. But the Boyz usually like making people puke hard before they turn it on heavy volume. 28 is the bottom of the Bollinger Band, but this can be dragged on for another week or two as they attempt to sandbox the downtrend to commodities and minimize overall damage to the overall broader market.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Agree red....right now they are picking apart the "over-margined" players..like SLW...note EGO SSRI green today...also several others on heavy volume......gettin close..but I am only "carefully buyin"

    ReplyDelete
  45. kli,

    look at UEC action today, heheeee, goldseek.com posted good article on uranium in general.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Mon Dieu! Here you are! So much for my shortcut to your blog, kli..... apparently it's on the fritz!

    At any rate, hello all! Got in to SLW today (nearly 2 x's average daily volume & gap fill)....hoping ~$28.75 holds.

    ReplyDelete
  47. HB,

    What took you so long dear, forget about SKF board and all the junk on yahoo public message boards, here is where you belong.

    ReplyDelete
  48. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  49. HB,

    Check out yesterday's comments I had on other stocks including RNN. Post here as much as you like, kli's father-in-law, friends, red, the nice and serious folks are here.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Hi Joe....if only you could see the smile on my face. (Correction) ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  51. Thanks, Joe, I certainly do have some catching up to do...was just taking a peek at RNN a moment ago. So nice to see you all!

    ReplyDelete
  52. HB,

    Homer is also here, he is too freaking busy to post regularly ( hint homer) and I miss it when he does not post.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Homer? Really?

    HOMER! PHONE HOME!

    Phenomenal volume on RNN today...and the TEVA 6.29% stake....takeover?

    ReplyDelete
  54. Doesn't Icahn take a ~6%-ish stake before he goes in for the kill? (Pls. forgive any and all stupid questions....I've never taken an economics class.) (Not even in high school.) (Just think of me as the slow kid.)

    ReplyDelete
  55. Usually when a big pharms like TEVA takes a position it either means partnership or take over, also law of mathematics takes over with RNN. During market collapse of 2008 and early 2009 RNN was at 0.60/0.65 low which is 52 week low as well, they have no debt, $20M in cash and now TEVA took a position at 1.69, so the down side is less than a buck and upside is huge. Patience is required since they are in phase IIb of their 3 products, good news is you do not have to worry about them needing cash soon and diluting the stock in order to raise cash. 50 and 200MA is at 1.20. At current level this one is not a TRADE unless if it doubles in one day.

    ReplyDelete
  56. HB on miners...please look at Blog list to the right.....use Harvey Organ every evening for a count at the Comex...He is a major beancounter...worse than Joe.....and use Watchtower as a resource......very valuable....cannot emphasize enough.....silver trade is getting very jiggly here so keep on it...

    ReplyDelete
  57. SHOCKING interview on bloomberg today ....i watched it and was shocked at how blunt it was... scroll down and watch the vid...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-fabers-most-provocative-interview-ever-compares-obama-prostitute-goes-long-treasurys?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

    ReplyDelete
  58. Thanks, Kli, Joe....You guys (blush) are the best.

    ReplyDelete
  59. HB,

    keep your eye on OPXA, excellent trade, went up from 1.50 to 3 in one session, retraced back to low 2s and went up close to 3 again and today it retraced some. The outstanding shares are only 18M with low float which means it does not take much to get it going.

    ReplyDelete
  60. If you pay close attention to yahoo bashers and hypers for a certain over a long period they may become indicators of their own.

    Looked like a classic stop grab in GORO today, makes me wonder why they'd bother if gold had much farther to fall.. Handed me 7% on a silver platter earlier, though of course if I'm wrong I'll lose that profit this week, I generally don't use stops for reasons today's GORO chart makes pretty obvious :)

    ReplyDelete
  61. "for a certain stock" that first sentence should read. I'm sure each stock has it's own special basher/hyper dynamic you'd have to figure out separately if it happened to be enlightening.

    ReplyDelete
  62. In addition to Joe's good Clive Maund link above and Kli's recommendations today:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/01/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_25.html

    ReplyDelete