Monday, January 3, 2011

TUESDAY STORM CLOUDS BREWING update I

The ill winds of POMO continue to blow across the world landscape. The Bernanke Kamikazee run of monetary insanity threatens every developing world's economy as we export the one thing left we have.......INFLATION. The ill winds of economic suicide threaten the stability of every developing country as the people begin receiving a sunami of price increases on their essentials. Many of these countries such as China and India have very marginal middle classes that are on the margin of survival and will not tolerate 100% increases in the prices of essentials this year. Their governments know this and will be taking steps quickly to stem this cancer. I suspect that by late this year China will be forced to accelerate their rate increases much more than they want to OR they will institute Price controls and trade wars.

Europe is going to have their own battles to sustain their debt burden as their PIIGS begin their second round of debt restructuring. I like to compare this to a bloated 40 y/o man just swimming across the Mississippi River....being congratulated and then told he must turn around and swim back across. There is no way he can do it and there is no way Europe can make this happen without default. They can prolong it maybe ....maybe for a year but that is really a stretch. It doesn't matter from an investment point of view. When Spain and Italy step up to the trough this year....the wheels of the ponzi are going to feel an incredible weight. Germany is going to start cracking from every weak link in its armor trying to carry the Eurozone through those behemoths. It should be an absolute HOOT to see how the banks and the media play this.

Remember though....even though the economy may have some signals that its recovering somewhat during the next couple of quarters from the massive liquidity being created. It is ultimately CONfidence that will provide an increase in the velocity of money. THAT is a much trickier obstacle to overcome. They completely mangled the confidence game in 2007-2008 when they repeated lied in the media with a continual mantra that EVERYTHING was going to be OK. I maintain to this day that just levelling with the public and creating true transparency could have made the outcome of this only a few years with true reform and a return to a real market economy. Now you have only a ponzi to rely on and I think the smart money has NO trust in it providing the necessary leadership to get us through a true crisis like we are in now.

So be prepared for some fireworks this year as the last deperate attempts to pump up the overleveraged and structurally destroyed U.S. economy tries to regain its dominance and maintain its only advantage in its last run to glory.......the status of the USD as the World's Reserve Currency. It's quite a battle, but like Great Britains loss of the title in the 70's as the World's Reserve Currency...so shall we.......UNLESS...there is a world wide deflationary collapse in 2012. Stay tuned.

Be patient...we need a correction to be buying...hold your core of SSRI PSLV ANV PHYS SLW...Add on pullbacks.......love uranium. UEC USU ....

DCTH and OREX look strong now...gl gang

update I....hope you were holding ATPG

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-clear-way-for-some-deepwater-drilling-2011-01-04?siteid=yhoof

36 comments:

  1. Don't ever let yourselves get too angry at the masters of the universe.. Yes the kettle is black, but.. I don't know the people here but I'm confident that most of us (most of anyone) aren't good people. Wisdom is not a virtue, merely a tool that can be used by the virtuous. They generally use that tool to get themselves killed.

    The vast majority of the wise seem to be like me, I sit on my ass with a beer in my hand watching the good men get ridiculed and killed. Figuring some shit out doesn't put you a single step closer virtuous character.

    Here's a good example of a wise man: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABxIJ8ONGeQ&feature=related

    I'd like to highlight in particular above the material after 3:50. For your own sake I recommend you mentally edit out that hack Dennis Miller. I believe Carlin is completely serious here (and he claims to be), yet I'm unable to argue with him. Wherever it counts I'm no different than this, no better than this. If anyone here thinks they're better either there's real hope for their "souls" or they're fools. I'm unqualified to make that call so please feel free to post your thoughts.

    All that said, ignorance is no virtue either. Ignorance is but a layer of obfuscation hiding one's true nature from both themselves and the world.

    A dangerous tendency of the ignorant, who are unable to see human nature for what it really is, is to devise alternate explanations for the wickedness of given men. These theories are lead to greater evil than the evils they seek to explain. The Germans were unwilling to accept that wealth and power simply corrupt 99% of humans, and it was a very tragic explanation that they devised in order to preserve their own self-images as inherently good people beset by outside villains.. villains not exactly like themselves..

    On a related note I believe humanism as a philosophy must be eradicated in all it's forms before we can progress as a species. I'm a great armchair quarterback like that.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well there was one silly editing typo but I'm pretty surprised that rant turned out so well.

    ReplyDelete
  3. And now it vanished.. This forum does weird stuff like that sometimes I can repost if it stays disappeared.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Well whatever, I had to rewrite certain unsaved parts but here's a second crack at it, I'll delete one or the other if my old post rematerializes.

    ---------


    Never let yourselves get too angry at the masters of the universe. Yes, the kettle is black but.. I don't know the people here but I'm confident that most of us aren't good people. Wisdom is not a virtue, merely a tool that can be used by the virtuous. They generally use that tool to get themselves killed.

    The vast majority of the wise are much like me, I sit on my ass with a beer in my hand watching the good men get ridiculed and killed. Figuring some shit out doesn't put you a single step closer virtuous character.

    Here's a good example of a wise man: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABxIJ8ONGeQ

    I'd like to highlight in particular above the material after 3:50. I believe Carlin is completely serious here (he says he is), and I'm unable to argue with him. Wherever it counts I'm no different than this, no better than this. If anyone here thinks they're better either there's real hope for their "souls" or they're just fools. I'm unqualified to make that call so please feel free to post your thoughts.

    All that said, ignorance is no virtue either. Ignorance is but a layer of obfuscation hiding one's true nature from both themselves and the world.

    A devastating tendency of the ignorant, who are unwilling or unable to see human nature for what it is, is to invent alternate explanations for the wickedness of a given grop of men. The Germans could't simply accept that power and wealth tend to corrupt most humans, in order to maintain their self-image as inherently good people it was necessary that they believe they were beset by villains who were not exactly like them, villains who were genetically or spiritually predisposed to corrupt behavior. The ignorant masses seem to prefer any explanation to human nature, to admitting that we aren't materially different inside from those we hate the most. The tragic consequences of this don't require repeating.

    On a related note I believe humanism as a philosophy must be eradicated in all it's forms before we can progress as a species. I'm a great armchair quarterback like that.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Ok, third time is a charm? I may end up deleting a lot of copies of this ranting..

    ---------


    Never let yourselves get too angry at the masters of the universe. Yes, the kettle is black but.. I don't know the people here but I'm confident that most of us aren't good people. Wisdom is not a virtue, merely a tool that can be used by the virtuous. They generally use that tool to get themselves killed.

    The vast majority of the wise are much like me, I sit on my ass with a beer in my hand watching the good men get ridiculed and killed. Figuring some shit out doesn't put you a single step closer virtuous character.

    Here's a good example of a wise man: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABxIJ8ONGeQ

    I'd like to highlight in particular above the material after 3:50. I believe Carlin is completely serious here (he says he is), and I'm unable to argue with him. Wherever it counts I'm no different than this, no better than this. If anyone here thinks they're better either there's real hope for their "souls" or they're just fools. I'm unqualified to make that call so please feel free to post your thoughts.

    All that said, ignorance is no virtue either. Ignorance is but a layer of obfuscation hiding one's true nature from both themselves and the world.

    A devastating tendency of the ignorant, who are unwilling or unable to see human nature for what it is, is to invent alternate explanations for the wickedness of a given grop of men. The Germans could't simply accept that power and wealth tend to corrupt most humans, in order to maintain their self-image as inherently good people it was necessary that they believe they were beset by villains who were not exactly like them, villains who were genetically or spiritually predisposed to corrupt behavior. The ignorant masses seem to prefer any explanation to human nature, to admitting that we aren't materially different inside from those we hate the most. The tragic consequences of this don't require repeating.

    On a related note I believe humanism as a philosophy must be eradicated in all it's forms before we can progress as a species. I'm a great armchair quarterback like that.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Well there's gotta be something the msgboard software doesn't like, I'll try splitting it up or something.. Here's part 1? Maybe?

    ----------

    Never let yourselves get too angry at the masters of the universe. Yes, the kettle is black but.. I don't know the people here but I'm confident that most of us aren't good people. Wisdom is not a virtue, merely a tool that can be used by the virtuous. They generally use that tool to get themselves killed.

    The vast majority of the wise are much like me, I sit on my ass with a beer in my hand watching the good men get ridiculed and killed. Figuring some shit out doesn't put you a single step closer virtuous character.

    Here's a good example of a wise man:

    ReplyDelete
  7. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABxIJ8ONGeQ

    ReplyDelete
  8. I'd like to highlight in particular above the material after 3:50. I believe Carlin is completely serious here (he says he is), and I'm unable to argue with him. Wherever it counts I'm no different than this, no better than this. If anyone here thinks they're better either there's real hope for their "souls" or they're just fools. I'm unqualified to make that call so please feel free to post your thoughts.

    All that said, ignorance is no virtue either. Ignorance is but a layer of obfuscation hiding one's true nature from both themselves and the world.

    A devastating tendency of the ignorant, who are unwilling or unable to see human nature for what it is, is to invent alternate explanations for the wickedness of a given grop of men. The Germans could't simply accept that power and wealth tend to corrupt most humans, in order to maintain their self-image as inherently good people it was necessary that they believe they were beset by villains who were not exactly like them, villains who were genetically or spiritually predisposed to corrupt behavior. The ignorant masses seem to prefer any explanation to human nature, to admitting that we aren't materially different inside from those we hate the most. The tragic consequences of this don't require repeating.

    On a related note I believe humanism as a philosophy must be eradicated in all it's forms before we can progress as a species. I'm a great armchair quarterback like that.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Oh, and in the 3 re-attempts at posting that I lost the part where I advise you to mentally edit that hack Dennis Miller out of the video for clarity's sake.

    ReplyDelete
  10. CCME Exploding......wooohahaoo

    ReplyDelete
  11. KLI,
    I do not share your enthusiam for DCTH. Be careful with this one.

    http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2011/01/01-01-dont-blindly-act-on-signals.html

    Inlet

    ReplyDelete
  12. thnks inlet will keep my position stable for now........FINALLY Oil is breaking......woohooo

    ReplyDelete
  13. Kli- Wanting to add to phys and pslv on pullbacks. Do you think we see 1350/60 this time around? Maybe add today or wait till week's end. Hope all had a happy New Year, been away for almost two weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Oh, and are you holding exar? Nice day yesterday on that one.

    ReplyDelete
  15. sister ...be very patient here.....and add very small...if silver doesn't rebound strongly this afternoon...then it may be a multiday pullback....it certainly needs some air outta that trade...if you have your core...sit tight.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Gartman just on CNBS....recommending the same strategy here.....let the correction take place on gold and silver.....I'll try to let you know when I buy....for now I will hold my core of course...

    ReplyDelete
  17. joe
    hanging onto the ccme and orex trades they dont usually last that long at my house have a tidy profit now but will play both awhile longer

    ReplyDelete
  18. http://wallstreetoutsider.net/2010/11/celldex/

    ReplyDelete
  19. Kli, Joe and others- would you be a buyer of uec ar the 50ma? It's getting close, And I would like to start a small position. Thanks - ryan

    ReplyDelete
  20. ryan start a position at the 50ma...then add if you start to see higher lows.....you can have a small position right where it is now...then be patient

    ReplyDelete
  21. If you are looking for a uranium entry a lower risk entry is around the 100ma and a bottoming of the daily RSI and Stochs. UEC,UEX.TO, or Uranus doesn't really matter they will be flushing out the weak hands after the recent run up. After the flooding of the Aussie coal mines, there will be an acceleration later to stockpile as much uranium yellow cake as possible, but first it's profit taking and butchering the weak hands. Have to pretend for a little further that stagflation doesn't exist so commodities need a a little whacking at least until the daily techs bottom out. My pure guess is the 100ma will hold and the 200ma doesn't need to be tested, but some big players may want a cheap entry point.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=UEc&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=b%2Cm200%2Cm100%2Cm50&a=r14%2Css%2Cm26-12-9&c=

    Flushing of the weak commodity hands, larger overall market will not suffer as much as they artificially and temporarily bring down the input costs of commodities. A major disaster or planned crisis will help accelerate the short term bottoming process in commodities.

    ReplyDelete
  22. "My pure guess is the 100ma will hold and the 200ma doesn't need to be tested, but some big players may want a cheap entry point."

    -----------------------------------------

    Red, cheap entry point IS, heheeeee!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Red,

    You missed the PZG run up last time from 1.50 to 4.20, do not miss it this time after correction.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Nancy,

    Keep your eye on PZG, hyenas are sharping their jaws and waiting for another round of grab and tear.

    ReplyDelete
  25. PZG's volume is just beautiful, on the way up as well as down. liquidity,liquidity, liquidity!

    ReplyDelete
  26. kli,

    CLDX is getting very interesting now, volume is low and current price is below 200ma and seems like it's stable around 4, this one requires real patience and you know me, I like them cheap.

    ReplyDelete
  27. PZG lowest entry is probably at the 50ma around 2.25 may bounce at the 20ma around 3.10, silver is not uranium much rarer and being used up in modern processes essential for silicon economy. Any pullback in silver is a massive short squeeze in the process, only downside to PZG is they mine gold which is not as rare and weaker momentum. Totally different commodities in play here.


    Chinese may have reduced the need for dirty fuel by an order of magnitude.

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-01/03/c_13675169.htm

    ReplyDelete
  28. Red,

    PZG is not just Gold, it's Gold and silver, about resource expansion which helped their recent price run up:

    "The potential target size has therefore been increased to 300,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold and 25 million to 30 million ounces of silver.
    La Veronica is a vein deposit analogous to Coeur d'Alene`s nearby Palmarejo Mine which has a defined reserve totalling 90.5 million ounces of silver and 1.04 million ounces of gold. La Veronica varies in width from 4 meters to 25 meters and sits within a northwest trending, sheared contact zone between felsic tuff and andesite. Mineralization focused in this sheared contact zone is accompanied by breccia, quartz veins and intrusive rock."

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Resource-Expansion-Likely-at-iw-4273067879.html?x=0&.v=1

    ReplyDelete
  29. Also the PZG site which explains the mine in mexico with Gold & silver:

    http://www.paramountgold.com/projects/index.asp

    ReplyDelete
  30. PZG has gold, just don't like the balance sheet, you can make a greater percentage on the volatility on PZG than say PAAS. Just different flavors out there to play on the pullback. Trying my hardest not to enter back into the market, it's like a crack addiction and other responsibilities must be prepared over the next 18 months.

    Thanks for the great insight Joe, you are perfect in your picks, just trying to focus on other things at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Red,

    I understand your dislike for the market and as I said before I do not blame you at all for not wanting to be in the market, it requires a certain mindset which you do not care for, now having said that even if you decide not to be in the market, it's important that you provide technical analysis on sectors to help KLI keeps his blog going, after it's all said and done, most viewers of his blog want to know what to buy and sell. Your contributions will take pressure off kli in regard to this issue. You and I should help him out in this matter.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Kli's Anonymous 12 step program is one of the reasons I still post.

    Market is set for pullback with commodities bearing the brunt, which will be played as healthy for the market. Not all commodities are equal so traders have to pick their battlefield to play: will it be food, clothes, heat or silver to make the Ipad 2/Verizon Iphone meet production demands. This sounds like Christmas with the 21st century version of Tiny Tim except Banker Scrooge will let Timmy play with the shiny new Ipad2 until he either freezes or starves and then takes it back.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Red,

    Both kli & I think highly of you, keep your analysis coming.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Silver!

    Rare Earths aren't the only thing China will be cutting back from Export when the banking cabal pisses them off.

    "In 2009, the total output of China's mineral silver and regenerate silver was 10,348 tons, maintaining No.1 in the world."

    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20101223005299/en/Research-Markets-Research-Report-Chinas-Silver-Industry

    ReplyDelete
  35. Red,

    Glimmer man ( maybury) in his latest publication also dedicated couple of pages to the silver issue, role of china and he expects the silver price to be much higher than where it is now.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Palmer since PZG is right next door to cde do you think cde may make a play for PZG...Also CEO of PZG said their strike is fours times per tonne bigger than cde's...like 20 grams per tonne comapred to cde ;s 5 grams per tonne...

    ReplyDelete