Saturday, February 5, 2011

WEEKEND ANALYSIS...IT'S STILL A PONZI!!update III

Friday evening mainstreet media headline.....Economy improving as unemployment drops to 9.0. Can this become more surreal?? What kind of slop can they expect the sheeple to keep swallowing?? Apparently ANYKIND OF SLOP!! 36 thousand jobs created and the headline should have read DISASTER FOR THE "RECOVERY". But of course the spinmeisters will continue to defend their strategy of monetizing their way out of the worst liquidity/deflationary crash EVER! Guess what?? Unless you are unemployed, this is barely affecting you. You are out spending and living as though we are hardly in a recession. In fact you are officially OUT OF THE RECESSION. That is how contrived and absurd reality is.

Housing numbers this week indicate we are now heading into another prolonged drop in home prices. With negative equity in homes the norm for most homeowners. The question is why would anyone view homes at these levels as a long term investment? Moreover prices have now dropped further than the GREAT DEPRESSION. It was 25.9% then now we are at 26% and dropping like a rock.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/substantial-future-home-price-declines-predicted-goldman-sachs-and-peak-theories

http://www.zillow.com/blog/home-value-declines-surpass-those-of-great-depression/2011/01/11/

But guess what? We are in recovery. Ben Bernank tells you so. Ben told you in 2006 there was no housing bubble he told you in 07 there would be no recession. He told you in early 08 that equity prices would not fall. Do I need to go further? Would you trust this man's ability to predict the future. He even had the audacity to testify that no one could have seen this coming. Hmmmmmmm. NO ONE??? Really. I guess he didn't read Lewis's book the BIG SHORT ( I highly recommend this). Logically one can only reach one conclusion. This is just one big orchestrated game. So that is how we're going to play it.

Our investment philosophy here incorporates the Kondratieff Wave theory which forms a basis for our overall economic outlook.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

This is a dynamic process that is useful for overall inflation/deflation/economic cycle predictions. It is well known to the Federal Reserve and the Bernank is fighting nature with every bone in his one dimensional body... but he will fail. It will be a monumental meltdown and collapse. Hopefully you will be positioned to survive these natural forces and you own demons of greed and fear will not overwhelm you. This will be a time to reinforce the aspects of life that are truly worthwhile. Those are your family and spirtual selfs. This board spend most of its time at the alter of wall street and will remain there for now..... for I am an inveterate gambler in the casino of wall street. Maintaining a "balance" with that game and life's true importance is self defeating but I pretend I can. An honest analysis for all of us is... we just like "the game".

Don't forget to look up from your computers and your analysis and look at the rest of the world going on. You need to pitch in and help someone.....not just for them....but for YOU. You will never understand what I am telling you until you go out and help a stranger. A total stranger in need. Then you will begin to find why you are still breathing and polluting this earth. GL gang.

update I...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/future-money-trends-why-gold-money-kings-and-debt-money-slaves

update II... It pays to be a dictator...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/04/hosni-mubarak-family-fortune

update III... Nice articles addressing the issue of Silver's backwardation I mentioned last week....This is a Big development. Saturday afternoon, this article, Near Zero Contango in Comex Silver Futures, came to my attention in which the author noted that silver was in zero contango throughout all silver contracts. I have verified that this is correct. This means that silver is in very short supply at the spot price as investors are not willing to sell their metal at spot and buy a futures contract for fear that they will not get the physical metal. This is the first time this has ever happened in silver

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011/02/silver-in-complete-backwardation.html

23 comments:

  1. Well said…your words have a way of keeping me awake and alert just when I’m on the verge of falling into the dream world...created to keep us oblivious from the truth…to keep us from fighting…to keep us spending…to fund the tyranny and prolong the ponzi.

    I was recently debating a real estate investment, but pulled out because of some good advice I received from several people (including you). BTW great Zerohedge article and strong supporting data. Looking into some farmland now...Yee-Haw!

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  2. good agricultural land is VERY smart long term....just like gold and silver bullion.

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  3. Oof, next time I mention Analyze it'll be three times in front of the bathroom mirror at midnight.

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  4. Water rights are very important for any agricultural land purchases.

    NASDAQ hack only a matter of time until another brief scare with the musical chairs, not the big one though. Ponzi is still good for now.

    If you are still aggressively playing in the casino don't forget to look at the Kress and Kondratiev clock on the wall. It's more than just a financial cycle, it's also social and not the facebook kind.

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  5. Thnk goodness i don't live in that desert country you do Red.....hehehehehe

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  6. http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1296656155.php

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  7. "If you are still aggressively playing in the casino don't forget to look at the Kress and Kondratiev clock on the wall. It's more than just a financial cycle, it's also social and not the facebook kind. '

    -----------------------------------------------

    In the casino that will be called AGGRESSIVE shorting, heheeeee!

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  8. Red,

    Once the clock on the wall turns on kondratiev, kli, HB, Jim, Kenny & other hungry hounds would turn their claws to AAPL, CSCO, PCLN and other fattened up stocks for some real fun called SHORTING.

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  9. You will know when to short. CNBC will have a cacaphony of pundits on telling you this is your last chance to get in and this time its different.....hehehhehe

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  10. There are two OLDEST profession in the world that survive as long as human beings are around:

    1) prostitution
    2) gambling

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  11. 3/6/09 K-Wave or sub cycle in K Wave is Kitchin cycle which is 42 months...So if it started on 3/6/09 it should end in about 1 year from now 2/9/12 So I will atleast play the marktes till end of this year..Will be interesting to see how this plays out...

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  12. Don't worry Red the bankers are not going to close the casino during the K-wave crash.....heck....they are engineering the crash.....the casino will remain open and the bonuses will continue for many of the bankers....Hard times for the bankers will be lay offs and decreased bonuses. Of course the "best positioned" will be hardly effected.

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  13. Only the sheeple will suffer with decreased grazing rights and tent priveledges extended on the edge of town with sewer and running water at the local public restrooms. They will still find access to flat screened TVs and reruns of American Idol. Our collective waistlines will have a nature imposed caloric restriction but otherwise bankers will survive just as they did after the 30s.....after all insects can survive nuclear blasts......

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  14. welcome to the new Moldovan readers...

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  15. KLI - I thinkt the employment #s were predictable.

    As a matter of fact "shadow statistics" site was commenting back in Sep/Oct how they had modified the unemployment/jobless calculations methodology to make them look better going in to the election and how later the #s would be lower as the changes would be reversed by time.

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  16. inlet...we are dealing with multiple factors and variables that are manipulative with many of the statistics that are given. Unfortunately even the most naive sheeple is beginning to disbelieve anything the government says.

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  17. Government and Banking interest will make it harder to establish shorts going into the great deflationary cycle. I will be surprised if there will be steady internet connections, power or food at that juncture.

    Food will probably edge out energy as more unaffordable starting in the next 3-6 months.

    As for the casino don't leave too many chips there longer than necessary. Paper positions have to be as precise and short term as possible. If you don't have the time, knowledge or skill to stay in the black, stay out. Use some of your winnings to prepare for the eventual breakdown in social services. If you are 100% in the market, you will be 100% screwed.

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  18. I am using my casino winnings and buying silver.I think silver is way undervalued compared to gold.Also with the dollar continuning to fall Food and gas will only go up here.

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  19. Djohnson - the Kitchin cycle and the 10 year cycle should bottom within 1-2 months of each other in 2010. The 2 year cycle will bottom 3-4 months after that. Some claim that the Kitchin cycle (varies depending on who you read for 40.68 months to 42 months) is considered to be a dominant cycle. The 10 year cycle is also considered to be a dominant cycle. The 2 year cycle may be less dominant but it also is impactful. This ignores longer cycles (ie K-Wave), but even ignoring those 2012 should be interesting.....

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  20. Any comments on the silver backwardation?? I believe its a monumental development...

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  21. Silver Backwardation...

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/21/465931/more-on-silver-backwardation/

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  22. Been doing some reading about it...most analysts believe it's very bullish, then again that usually means it's bearish haha!

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  23. Djohnson - was thinking about your target date the Kitchin cycle and I believe it to be incorrect. If it started 3/06/09 then 3 years (36 months) would be 3/06/12. 42 months is 6 months more or 9/06/12 (unless I am confused).

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