Thursday, March 31, 2011


Watta joke...Sokol was dealin' his personal stock portfolio and making recommendations to Warren on what companies to take over. His insider trading defense was to claim that he had told Uncle Warren that he personally owned shares. Thats like saying "I'm loaded let's go"....Now we get a little better idea what Warren's little company runs like. Just unbelievable to listen to the defense of the MASSSIVE CONFLICT OF INTEREST. That is exactly what this is. It might be insider or SEC violations....BUT it is DAMN WELL a massive CONFLICT of INTEREST. EVEN the numbnuts on CNBC can smell this one and they are able to sugarcoat almost any crook on Wall Street.

This exemplifies how Warren could get a phone call from the Plunge Protection Team in 2008 and then take a deal and announce it like the Goldman Sachs deal ONE HALF HOUR before the market closed with gurantees and interest payments that were an obvious payoff for his avuncular pump. Hey....don't bitch....just understand how this game is played.

I notice that the Euro launch pad is starting to heat up this morning. Portugal spreads are reaching the stratosphere. That PIIG is going to have to pop and it will be soon. Gold has a very nice chart formation with an inverse head and shoulders about ready to take off. IS THAT A SURE THING??? HA! But it does look good here. Patience gang this is a long ball game and this disaster is NOT going to end the trade all at once.

For now I will keep our stock plays in the comments today. gl gang

Wednesday, March 30, 2011


POMO POMO POMO POMO. Load the dice and roll um. The only thing these bankers can do is print. They can jawbone all they want to about ending QE2 early but what in reality is going to happen is QE .....They will never make it to QE 5 they will implode the world by then. This market has juice in it and they aren't going to take that lifeblood away in the near term so roll your dice.

Near term targets for miners remain bullish. The last four days of gold consolidation are building the power to move up to 1500. Miners appear to be prepared also for another leg up here as well. I will hold my core and try to trade on pullbacks. My cash position will not change until this top is reached...Remember POMO ends in June.

Energy plays today remain HERO HNR WPRT SGY ATPG NBR GMXR is flowing into this sector and will continue to.

This is the Grand Supercycle... This is the BEAR of all Bears coming. We are in it right now and you are trading history. Embrace it and enjoy your time. Tell your friends to prepare and always make sure you extend a hand. You will need all the friends you can make with the coming times.

Gold n Silver n food. SLW SSRI miners performing well as is ANV. just a hint.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011


So do I. I spent over four hours after the market closed just perusing articles and blogs trying to find them. Then I went to stockcharts and put up charts of various sectors, indices , and stocks. I listened to CNBS overseas. I listened to Fast Money DVDd. Still the same thing kept coming up. We are on the pecipice of one of the most historic messes in history. How does a country and the world for that matter get itself into one of the most overleveraged liquidity nightmares known to mankind. There has to be an answer right? You just don't wake up one day and find out that your country allowed itself to charge its children's future and their children's future into debt you?? Did 1.25 Quadrillion of derivatives just show up out of thin air on the world's financial sheets without anyone being aware of them?? Was Warren Buffet's letter to his investors about financial weapons of mass destruction just hyperbole in 2006. Were home price appreciations of 300% in just 8 years normal? Certainly in 2007 a certain Central Banker publicly said they were. That same Central Banker is telling you now that the economy is on a sustained path to recovery and that the monetization of debt ( a euphemism for international debt fraud) will ultimately lead us to full recovery albeit slowly.

So I am looking. My search tonight reminds me of some kind of surreal madness. Finding an answer to a mathematically insurmountable debt mountain is metaphorically trying to climb K-2 wearing a tutu. Watching the world literally unravel in front of our eyes while we watch American Idol is beyond surreal. Riots and civil war are breaking out in over a dozen countries simultaneously as we sleep tonight. The public here is virtually unaware of the magnitude of this problem because the main street media serves it up like a dish of fried chicken. Dark meat or white?? We are flooding the world with dollars which is creating increasingly severe price pressure in essentials throughout the world. In developing countries there are literally BILLIONS of people that being impacted by this stagflation and are losing the capacity to FEED themselves and their families. This is creating a sense of hopelessness not only for their future but the present. This will continue as long as the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency remains. As our weak puppet governments continue to collapse in the Middle East and North Africa our control of cheap oil prices unwinds. The resultant higher prices in oil/gasoline will begin to drag down a fragile/faux recovery as reality meets ponzi.

So I am looking.... I know that we are going to receive some kind of hopeful statistic....surely. I know that we are going to have meaningful structural improvement in employment. We have to. After all, we have put 14 Trillion dollars over the last 2.5 years into this debacle and that has to create a strong recovery. Consumer CONfidence dropped like a rock today. Why??? We are recovering. Housing numbers are horrific after over 3 years after the collapse began. Now we are being told to expect another leg down for housing. Why?? We've put hundreds of billions into housing through various program. What is out there? What is out there that I cannot see? What is making the world turn into an inferno. In my entire life I have never seen World governments breaking down at this pace. WHY?

Watta mess!!! We are literally playing in this casino while Rome burns all around us. It reminds me of the poker game Redford was playing in the movie Havana. This is all a dream that somehow will end well when we wake up. Just remember there is a clock ticking and there is one thing that no ammount of money can buy. gl


Its everything. Without re-establishing CONfidence back into the markets one cannot get the consumer back into spending and making that GDP move up. Without velocity of money there can be NO movement in this liquidity driven recovery. CAN you change the equation of velocity by the current monetary policy? Maybe. Perhaps you can convince the populace that the best barometer of the health of our economy (the market)is healthy again by the current POMO/ponzi. In fact it may be that the Fed doesn't even care if many on the inside realize the market is completely fluffed by the Fed.......just as long as they know the market is UP.

The only thing that we are interested in is what path this manipulated/monetary/liquidity lead "recovery" in the market will take. If the goal of this entire monetary exercise is to keep the animal spirits alive in the public with a strong appearing stock market then one does not want to fight the fed by shorting the market running into June. On the other hand this entire bull is getting very long in the tooth. If you remember how bulls end then you also know that we haven't seen the volatility yet marking the end of the bull. ESPECIALLY in precious metals.

One reason that many here are in precious metals as an investment is their ability to retain value as a currency. Right now you really haven't seen the final stages of the world fiat death spiral. When that fear truly hits there will be an explosion in the PM's.

Meanwhile feel free to gamble and play your Biotech specs with the hot money. Just remember what value is.

update I POMO will continue.... and this is why. The Conference Board’s confidence index fell to a three- month low of 63.4 from a revised 72 reading in February, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop this month to 65.

Sentiment may remain suppressed as higher prices at service stations and supermarkets take a bigger bite out of Americans’ incomes. A pickup in the job market and savings from tax cuts make it less likely that household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, will falter. bloomberg

update II........China issues critical summary of the "New War" very important read...
This essentially completes what this blog has been stating is the coming storm.

Monday, March 28, 2011


Nature threw us a real fastball right at the head and we hit it out of the park. The PIIGS are starting to heat up again and begging for us to put them back on the barbque rack.....and we are still able to party on. Oil..grains...industrial metals .....precious metals all grinding higher and the music plays on. The real effects of monetary policy are definiely being seen. But the real question is can it create the greatest illusion of all ...CONFIDENCE....or CONfidence. Yes..this is the ultimate target of the Maestro's symphony. Can Trillions of fiat pushed through the primary dealer's reserves through various programs including treasury repurchases and MBS exchanges manage to create an entire new round of liquidity driven animal juices flowing again??? IN AN OCEAN OF ABSOLUTE FOCHIN MALINVESTMENT??? ARE YOU KIDDIN ME???

Pardon my outburst...but no. This will not quite be adequate. You cannot pour trillions in jobs into other countries over the past twenty years and expect that your country is going to rebound without massive restructuring of its investment goals. We are a country whose economic GDP is bases on consumerism. I probably need to repeat that one more time for effect ...CONSUMERISM. That means our GDP depends on what we buy ....70% of it is consumer driven....THAT MEANS WE ARE A PARASITIC economy. That means we have shifted into decline.

Now for the punchline/lines.....WE are borrowing 32c for every dollar we spend. THE ONLY reason we can get away with this is that the world's fiat is crashing all around us and people are finding fewer and fewer places to buy bonds and hide out with their money. This cannot last much longer. This will unwind and when it does the 4Trillion dollar a day carry trade will collapse. THIS is why they are fighting the headline price of gold and silver and will continue to do so. I do not join the crowd that believes that JPM/Fed will completely lose control of the Silver Comex and the entire ponzi will be least in the near term. I do believe they will make this one of the greatest trading opportunies with hard pullbacks to be bought and runups sold.....all the while holding some level of a core.

Speculative plays in the biotechs remain and we follow in the comments.

Energy plays remain solid in SGY NBR ATPG HNR WPRT HERO......gotta have it.

update I.....

Sunday, March 27, 2011


This is one that your model need to examine very closely and make comparisons to Livermore for a comparitive analysis. And maybe your won't be lining a cloak room floor with your brains.

Bernard Baruch was born in Camden, South Carolina to Simon and Belle Baruch. He was the second of four sons. His father Simon Baruch (1840–1921) was a German immigrant of Jewish ethnicity who came with his family to the United States in 1855. He studied medicine, became a doctor, and served as a surgeon on the staff of Confederate general Robert E. Lee during the American Civil War. He was a pioneer in physical therapy.[1] His mother's Sephardic Jewish ancestors (likely from Amsterdam or London) came to New York as early as the 1690s, where they became part of the shipping business.

In 1881 the family moved from Camden to New York City, where Bernard and his brothers attended local schools. He then studied at and graduated from the City College of New York.

Baruch became a broker and then a partner in A.A. Housman & Company. With his earnings and commissions, he bought a seat on the New York Stock Exchange for $18,000 ($434,000 in today's dollars). There he amassed a fortune before the age of 30 via speculation in the sugar market. By 1903 Baruch had his own brokerage firm and gained the reputation of "The Lone Wolf on Wall Street" because of his refusal to join any financial house. By 1910, he had become one of Wall Street's best-known financiers.

In 1925 he endowed the Mrs. Simon Baruch University Award in memory of his mother, to support scholars who have written unpublished monographs for full-length books on Confederate history. His mother had been an early member of the United Daughters of the Confederacy (UDC) and supported their activities.

In 1916, Baruch left Wall Street to advise president Woodrow Wilson on national defense. He served on the Advisory Commission to the Council of National Defense and, in 1918, became the chairman of the new War Industries Board. With his leadership, this body successfully managed the US's economic mobilization during World War I. In 1919, Wilson asked Baruch to serve as a staff member at the Paris Peace Conference. Baruch did not approve of the reparations France and Britain demanded of Germany, and supported Wilson's view that there needed to be new forms of cooperation between nations, and supporting the creation of the League of Nations.[2]

In the 1920s and 30s, Baruch expressed his concern that the United States needed to be prepared for the possibility of another world war. He wanted a more powerful version of the War Industries Board, which he saw as the only way to ensure maximum coordination between civilian business and military needs.[3] Baruch remained a prominent government adviser during this time, and supported Franklin D. Roosevelt's domestic and foreign policy initiatives after his election.

During President Roosevelt's "New Deal" program, Baruch was a member of the "Brain Trust" and helped form the National Recovery Administration (NRA).

I posted these speculators for you to discover and read about. There are similarites and there are notable differences. What led to continued succes for one and a long life with acccess to the highest levels of government. While Jesse Livermore wound up on a cloak room floor..

Friday, March 25, 2011


Or lose depending on the side of the bet you wind up on or how long you stay at the table. Some of you realize the historic significance of what is happening right now, but many of you do not. This is a cataclysmic change the world is entering. You are trying to survive it NOT conquer it. If you are sure you can win at this game then I suggest you stop reading and go back to American Idol and massage your brain. This game is to be played with controlled tredpidation and respect. It will humble you just as you believe you have achieved success. You may think this is hyperbole but I can assure you it is from years of experience while achieving extreme lows and extreme highs. This is a cumulative experience that cannot be replicated with giving only one strategy. It is an amalgam of many techniques/strategies with some very simple rules of the game maintained throughout.

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis. ”
—Jesse Livermore, How To Trade In Stock

The market boils down to a game of mass psychology and how the interaction of the above elements of hope ignorance and finally fear and greed coalesce to create the perfect formula for the greatest power ever created to take your bets. There is a reason that people like Warren Buffet state he is not a market timer. Although he is and don't let that statement fool you. His timing just isn't in your typical swing cycle time period. It's measured in larger cycles and tends to be more stock and macro specific. You cannot own the companies like Warren does and you cannot sit in the boardrooms and next to the Secretary of the Treasury like Warren does.

You do however have an advantage Warren doesn't have. You can move in and out of a stock and have virtually no impact on its price moves. That is a tremendous advantage.

Each of you has an investment strategy. Does it work for you? If so then you may not want to change it. On the other hand bull or bear there are lessons that history teaches us that remain true today.....even in what may be the most highly manipulated market to date. Note I said "may be". Throughout market history it has been VERY manipulated at times worse than others.....but ALWAYS manipulate. If you aren't aware of this fact then you have not done your due diligence in studying the history of the game you are playing.

Jesse Lauriston Livermore (July 26, 1877 — November 28, 1940), also known as the Boy Plunger[1] and "Great Bear of Wall Street", was an early 20th century stock trader. He was famed for making and losing several multi-million dollar fortunes and short selling during the stock market crashes in 1907 and 1929.

I keep pasting clips of Jesse on this essay. They are not for decoration. This is so that you may absorb just how little things really have changed over time. There are some constants that must be adhered to. Emotion in this market must be controlled. If you do not have the ability to look at yourself and find out what your emotional weaknesses are then this market will do it for you...even the "greatest market trader ever" could not always control his emotions or follow his own rules.

Born in Acton, Massachusetts, Jesse Livermore started his trading career at the age of fourteen. He ran away from home with his mother's blessing to escape a life of farming his father wished him to have. He then began his career by posting stock quotes at the Paine Webber brokerage in Boston.

Livermore first became famous after the Panic of 1907 when he sold the market short as it crashed. He noticed conditions where a lack of capital existed to buy stock. Accordingly, he predicted that there would be a sharp drop in prices when many speculators were simultaneously forced to sell by margin calls and a lack of credit. With the lack of capital, there would be no buyers in sight to absorb the sold stock, further driving down prices. After the crash and its aftermath, he was worth $3 million.

He proceeded to lose 90% of that 1907 fortune on a blown cotton trade. He violated many of his key rules; he listened to another person's advice (he preferred working alone) and added to a losing position. He continued losing money in the flat markets from 1908–1912. He was $1 million in debt and declared bankruptcy. He proceeded to regain his fortune and repay his creditors during the World War I bull market and resulting downtrend.

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. ”
—Jesse Livermore, How To Trade In Stocks

We are entering the most critical phase of the 120 year Grand Super Cycle. The Mega cycle down phase and it is going to be brutal to market participants that are not aware of what a monster deflationary cycle will do. I encourage all of you to do your own due diligence and study this phenomenon and realize just how treacherous playing any longer in this casino is. You are welcome to blame someone else for your etc etc....but ultimately it is your choice to play and if your emotions are to blame others in your past for your failures that have befallen you then I can assure you this market will most likely wipe you out.

Through unknown mechanisms, he yet again lost much of his trading capital, accumulated through 1929. Thus, on March 7, 1934, the bankrupt Livermore was automatically suspended as a member of the Chicago Board of Trade. It was never disclosed to anyone what happened to the great fortune he had made in the crash of 1929, but he had lost it all.

Jesse’s fortune would have amounted to anything between 10 and 13.7 billion dollars in today’s money - a remarkable feat for a self-made stock and commodities trader who traded with his own money, not other people's. On November 28, 1940, Livermore shot and killed himself in the cloakroom of the Sherry Netherland Hotel in Manhattan.

1)portions on Jesse were taken from Wikipedia....

Saturday update I Massive demonstrations in London today against austerity measures.....not going well for the ponzi. I guess putting all that free money back in the bottle is a lot harder than letting it out....300,000 people on the streets...could get ugly....


Hopefully the PTB can maintain the upward movement of gold and silver within the confines of our trading ranges and longer term channels. This is the only way the trade of gold and silver will not run off and leave many of the traders of these precious metals. If history repeats itself then we should expect to see the true power kick the can down the road for another year as stagflation continues to grow and exert its painful effects upon the most vulnerable of the population....whick include many of us. Ultimately as stated here many times.......the price of essentials will destroy the developed world's fiat ponzi and force a major debt restructure.

As you watch politicians in Ireland and Portugal you get an idea what politicians will do to engage the debt issue. Austerity is NOT palatable to the masses and certainly the politicans can put their fingers up to the wind. Meanwhile the media is asking hard-hitting quistions like "how can the market keep going up with all this going on?" If they only knew within this inane, simplistic question was the real question they should explore. Only we know they would not want to find the answer. It would confirm their fears. That their jobs and their fundamental beliefs and existence was all structured by the greatest organization ever. NOOOO we couldn't get that conspiratorial in our stayed world of American Idol.

I CAN say with reasonable confidence that gold and silver are going much much higher but not without some nasty pullbacks and therefore great trading opportunities for those that like to play this game. We could be going into a multi month consolidation/pullback for metals or we could be going to the 50/1500 silver/gold levels in the next few weeks......I'm going with the move up near term. I could be wrong but I just don't see enough froth in these metals yet for a serious smackdown. In fact with QE2 and Euro fires going I like holding in this environment. But be aware if you have a nice profit.......take some of it over the next week and try and trade the rest. Overall this is a really nice position to be in with the precious metals. ANY pullback to longer term support is to be bought.

Thursday, March 24, 2011


In a final poisonous act of defiance Socrates ends it all.... Portugal becomes an ethical dilemna as the Eurozone takes front and center again. You can only hide your plight from the world so long. Portuguese interest rates are now trying to find some cover from the bond vigilantes but there is nowhere to hide with the death of Socrates. He could have been saved but his parliment decided to feed him to the lions......I had better stop mixing metaphors. Anyway this is starting to warm the fires of the Eurozone and creating angst in our bankers. Right now the Euro is beginning to teeter as the rescue/bailout boyz dig into their bag of tricks. Words like unit labor costs are starting to creep into the lexicon again as the excesses of the PIIGS begin to shine brightly. Germany which has its house in order by comparison is now going to be faced with another test of their leadership to hold the "zone" together. This is NOT going to end well. Just remember....any concessions given to one PIIG is going to be demanded by the next PIIG but its that S on the end of the PIIGS that is completely out of control and very big. Watch Portugal here the Irish are already crying they want more concessions on their austerity measures. This should be quite a dance.

This kind of dance should feed nicely into some dollar strength but the last time we did the Euro dance/jig the dollar strength only added to gold's luster as fear pushed the gold metal higher. In the face of a rising dollar this time we may silver move higher also as it takes the lead as a safe haven. Remember....central banks have gold...they can manipulate its price more easily.....but the have no silver and it takes more imagination to maipulate its price. See the recent news on JPMs suddenly new precious metals warehouse to store their massive ammount of imaginary silver bullion.

The move in PMs and miners may catch some wind in their sail with the Eurozone troubles unless the PTB can kick it down the road quickly. I'm glad I'm not pulling this rabbit out of my ass. good luck and lets stay put with our trades for a few days.

update I..... Earth Shutdown ....countdown commences NOW.....this is not a test... JPM institutes bullion warehouse for naked shorts cover-up with CFTC approval....Tokyo running out of bottled water today.....Japanese no longer require night lights in bedrooms.....most coastal Japanese cities north of Tokyo gone.... Portugal say's Foch You to EU ponzi.....Germans say Foch you to Portugal....US stock markets I will reveal my true identity to you as I shut down the earth

Wednesday, March 23, 2011


The greatest bull market EVER!!!! Its over?? hehehehe. I don't think so. It isn't over until I say its over (not my words...they would be gentle Ben's)... I'm hearing some fairly loud proclamations this rally is over. However I don't think it will end quite that way. Now a bigger question is whether or not we are nearing another correction and that is certainly a possiblity. But you have to look at this from the perspective of mass psychology and the purpose of this entire exercise. If we use the thesis (and btw I do) that this entire Stock Market run up is to instill Confidence back into a shattered economy and investor psyche. The theory is that as we see a continual recovery in market prices that we will be enticed to rekindle our animal spirits and invest in new business ventures which will have a noticeable effect on GDP and employment. Once again all will be good as velocity of money returns and the consumer spends. Here is the rub. If you are saying that the greatest power in the world is going to allow a 20% correction in the market right here...right now. Then I have to take exception. That level of correction would certainly not be expected by a lot of people so that is in its favor ...BUT...and here is my problem. If they pull this down to flush out the weak handed newbies then you can kiss any semblance of the above theory every taking hold within the investor psyche. The wounded investor may take a 10% pull back but not twenty. That is bear market stuff and this ponzi just won't survive. If you think those flows that are just now coming back into mutual funds will continue or can forgetaboutit.

Maybe I will be wrong....but I will stay with my thesis on QE 3....How they implement it will require some manipulation of the market but when and how much.....I guess we'll find out.

I'm still in the energy plays and miners.......If you've made good coin this year then I suggest that you think about moving into cash over the next few weeks and looking for some better entries. Silver and Gold still have some room but remember they will take hits too. I believe that both have a real nice run above this level this year. The question is when and I just can't tell you that. My best guess is Silver busts 40 near term and gold breaks 1500 near term. Only a guess. Energy looks good for another couple of

update I...

Tuesday, March 22, 2011


After overnite selling overseas expect a strong rally as futures turn green here. Over fifty large semi-trucks of freshly minted greenbacks were delivered to the NYSE just prior to its opening as Ben explained that monetary policy would stabilize the damage from the 100 ft tsunami that hit the eastern half of the United States stopping just short of the Mississipi river. Most markets are expected to stablize in Europe with the infusion of cash. One trader in London was quoted as saying perhaps they had "overdone the term liquidity this time". A massive short squeeze in Asian markets is anticipated when they open.

Perhaps this is taking too much journalistic liberty but it seems to make a point doesn't it. Last week just what the hell happened?? We had a 9.0 earthquake off the coast of one of the most densley populated regions in the world that contained one of the most developed economies with some of the most key technology manufacturing areas in the world. The earthquake destroyed power supply to key areas of this manufacturing and unleashed a radioactive cloud of fear upon the region. The Just In Time manufacturing of key industries throughout the world became subject to complete shutdown over the next few weeks....the markets rallied.

The Middle Easts rocky dictatorships shimmied and shaked then turned into all out war in Libya. Of course to save the rebels (whoever they are) and determine their new leader (whoever it might be) we need to kill a few people. All in a days work for the greatest power ever. While we are releasing approximately 1 billion dollars in cruise missiles on these miscreants we are cutting 100 million in food programs for women and children here. I think I like it. It smacks of "fiscal responsibility" and that is what this country needs more of. You just don't get it .....we are establishing democracy in Libya....just'll see.

Watch Libya....once they capitulate Yemen and Bahrain will see the light and turn over a new leaf...soon every dictatorship over there will want to join hands and rally round the flag boyz. I like it.....

Market turns greeeen...

Yes liquidity is the lifeblood of success.....

Problem is we have guys like this bloke...Droke. He keeps bringing up these economic cycles and talking about the Kress Mega Cycle. These Drakonian naysayers need to just STFU. We can manage without these CONfidence destroying doomsayers....

If we are reading the tea leaves correctly and our guesses are correct (this is really pushing credulity now) then I suspect that they are going to demonstrate that POMO IS WORKING!!!! continuing an upward left to right movement of the market until QE 2 is near its end. Then you know what will happen to demonstrate that QE3 is dearly needed......and it won't take long.

This is a hell of a way to trade a market but with that being said I still like our gold and silver trades and their technical patterns for the next 2 weeks especially PSLV....also energy looks good technically with ATPG HERO HNR GMRX NBR SGY .....DAMN THAT NEW SPILL......we've seen worse....

Miners.....GPL ANV SLW SSRI EXK love um or leave um....I'm stayin at least for a trade....

Risk on Party wanna play in the casino..just remember who owns

Monday, March 21, 2011


What better way to get an undesirable headline off the front page than to replace it with another headline more desirable. I know...once again that is just too much but hey....did you notice the news cycle change literally overnight. I watched CNN go to the complete hour full of scenes from battle. Nothing like a night sky scene full of tracers andd bursting bombs to get the sheep focused on "happier news". Not only have we buried the devastation in Japan and the looming nuclear meltdown (no easy task) but we have erased the heavy handed crushing of the democratic uprising in Bahrain Jordan and Yemen by our Saudi henchmen. Our pretorians are being stretched thin with the third front opened in Libya but not to worry.....all in a day's work. This is what liberty and democracy is about. Cruise missiles and 24/7 digital film. I'm sure when its all said and done democracy will flourish in Libya with a Jeffersonian government for the people by the people.

One thing is certain...we are ready to put the pedal to the metal on the stock market. Forget the geo-politics and collateral damage lets get to the meat. Let's get it on. This is about Ka-Ching. Today is PUMP DAY. As stated here last week they are going to squeeze the shorts again. Toooo much bearishness. Now you are going to pay. One day you will accept who runs this market and why. When you do and when they are through picking your flesh.....then and only then will they take this down.

I still like silver better than gold but Euro debt is coming back on stage soon so ANV EGO GFI and GORO will move. $HUI is looking like it could have a nice move now but I want to see how it handles 536 but it has shown a very strong reversal off it lower channel and near the 200ma. The structure of this turn "looks" good.

Of course silver miners are the potential monsters here and I may even add to my GPL EXK. SLW SSRI are core positions and I will probably let them ride a few days without a trade. Just depends on their intraday moves.

Energy still looks strong HNR HERO GMXR WPRT.......look at them that oil spill in the gulf this week far they've kept it out of the news ...ATPG SGY have an exposure to deep wells. Lets see how they perform all

The PTB will not be saying this for a long time.....but someday......

Sunday, March 20, 2011


Well known Muslim protector Joe Loserman and John McGain were trotted out on CNN by Middle East Constant War proponent Candi Growley this morning forcing me to throw up in my cereal. Weren't these the two politicians that up until just recently never saw a muslim they couldn't torture or kill. Now they are front and center supporting a military effort to "save" the muslims in Libya. I know I know this is just cynicism on my part run amuck...but you have to admit when did this country become so dedicated to this region of the world.....hehehehe....let me guess...when crude oil reserves became the lifeblood of the world's power and economy.

Let's not debate Gadhaffi. He's a chump, despot dictator....but do you really think we are going to do anything other than install another chump despot dictator? Well yes actually we will. We will engender a degree of good will from many of those fighting Gadhaffi....until they find out they've been duped. We will certainly divert some world attention from our efforts through our "pawns" in supressing Bahrainian uprisings by having the Saudi secret police slaughtering a few hundred stone throwers. We will engender a significant ammount of resentment in the Arab world (in spite of media attempts to paint this as approved by the arab world) for interfering with western military on arab soil......again. I have NO idea whether we are fomenting all of the upheaval in the Middle East now. Maybe we are to create instability and war while we tighten our grip strategically on their resources while our military industrial complex makes hundreds of billions....actually Trillions by now with Iraq and Afghanistan factored in. Of course speculating as to our motives is purely an exercise in futility. But no one can deny this ....We have over 800 military bases in 150 countries. We cannot sustain this. In fact it has created a malinvestment for our country that has only been sustained through a very well planned dervivatives ponzi that will take us all down. Enjoy the illusion. Most of you have finally figured it out.

Saturday, March 19, 2011


Is the yen carry trade over??? I doubt it. If you had any major concerns that a collapse in this liquidity game was going to unwind then the G7 intervention should show you the True Power has no intention of letting this go down without a fight. Make no mistake the culprit in this was the dollar. Ben's commitment to maintain the global liquidity flow WILL be maintained. If you wish to apply rational metrics to calculate the the limits of this policy then I suggest you move your decimal points further to the right. If you are mathematically inclined then you may find that Ben has exceeded already three key quantitative limits on debt structure. Without boring you with these algorithms, it suffices to say that he is well aware of this. What it implies to the investor is that it is a tell. It means that there is now no point of return. Ben is "all in". But then we knew that. Maybe some of us held out hope that somehow the grand Keneysian experiment would somehow work and that the "turnaround" in CONfidence that has been discussed would get the velocity of money component moving again. Well it has moved but only imperceptibly.

What is moving as predicted is the costs of essentials as liquidity flows into these as a "side benefit" of the carry trade liquidity. Borrowing money in Yen and now increasingly in Dollars at virtually Zero looks for return in fixed income. But the currency must remain stable. The carry trade is becoming an increasingly dangerous game to play as fluctuations in the carry currencies becomes terror inducing if you get caught on the wrong side of the currency move. Some of these players are leveraged massively and moves like Friday in the dollar/yen create turmoil just as the move prior to Friday created fear. So for Ben to keep this high wire act going indefinitely with dollar as a central component of stability and value is an illusion that is becoming more and more difficult.

OK now finally to the point......This IS THE PROBLEM....the value behind the dollar is an illusion. THAT is why the PTB MUST contain gold and silver prices. I did not say they will. But I am saying that the headline prices of gold and silver reflect on the dollar's value and that is ALL about CONFIDENCE. They have always known this and will continue to monitor the HEADLINES.....which are the STOCK MARKET PRICES and GOLD and SILVER and OIL. Just look on your CNBS screens daily.

Once again the limits of the PONZI are not the prices of silver and gold or the stock market........its the prices of essentials impact the consumer then all of the CNBS/Ponzi metrics of "CORE INFLATION" beome absurd as they are already. People will begin laughing when the "numbers" are announced. Commentators like Santelli already know everything I am writing about.

The current middle east turmoil has everything to do with the above and this contagion will continue to spread into other areas as this unwinds.....hold your PMs and if you think they are in a bubble......well then I will end with....."you ain't seen nuttin yet".

Speaking of moral ambiguity......sometimes the bad guy is the good guy and the shades of gray get very gray....

but my favorite western morality figure...

update I ooooooooooooooooooNOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...if true WE ARE FOCHED

Friday, March 18, 2011


Just as the carry trade threatened to blow up another rabbit somehow someway was produced from Ben and friends. A coordinated effort of the G7 to save an old not Japan...they could care less...but the Ponzi carry trade. The blood of liquidity that keeps the ponzi alive. As expected the ponzi lives. Global economic collapse is averted and the casino stays open. Markets will squeeze all the shorts that have piled in and now the structural issues of Japan's earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown will be simply solved with monetary shenanigans. Its perfect. I think I like it. Being a Central Banker may seem like a stressfull high functioning type of occupation but I think I can do it. Housing bubble pops....print. Banking bubble infected with hundreds of Trillions of derivatives and MBS......print. Massive collapse of a ponzi job market......print. Yup.....I think this could be something I might be able to do. After all it seems like just one button needs to be printed.

It seemed obvious this was coming....all the bears were trotted out on Wednesday. Everytime I looked up at CNBC they were TRUTHFULLY telling you just how bad everything was. It was so obvious that someone was readying the shorts for a murderous squeeze. Of course this is all "too organized" or "too conspiratorial" for the most stayed and pragmatic of market participants to even remotely consider so lets not upset them and let them ponder this. Let's just allow them to continue to believe that serendipity and "normal market forces" are at work.....hehehhe......sure they are. But does it really matter? NO! Ben has told you the game. When he tells you that he is going to maintain this policy of POMO until employment shows a sustained an meaningful improvement .....HE MEANS IT!!! Until the costs of essentials is making you and every other sheep in this world bleed out of every orifice of their body will he consider pulling back on the throttle. As Joe correctly pointed out however this WILL happen....just not today and probably not until next year. Will prices worsen this year on essentials. Yes yes and YES!! You are going to feel PAIN. He is going to rev the engines of monetary policy until the wheels fall off of the cart.

If you wanna feel sorry for pigs...then you can feel sorry for the forex idiots that were jumping on the short the yen/usd ....How long did they think the true power was going to let that go??? Did they really believe these guys were going to let that go??

Don't worry though we have lots of games to play yet. Employment...PIIGS defaulting/restructuring...Japan's issues aren't even close to over....wait until their rolling blackouts filter into our JIT supply chain and our manufacturing could....Riots across the Middle East and soon closer to home as the game unravels......enjoy its only going to get better....sometimes I wonder how they can make this last even till the end of this year but they will....we just might have had a black swan this time if they can't get this supply chain going....this is where they have a huge problem.

Most of our plays are hanging in there. I gave up on Uranium but its had a nice bounce so for you still in it GOOD LUCK.

Gold and silver are struggling to regain some momentum but the ponzi is relentless in its efforts to throw the kitchen sink at them....Some of the cheaper miners like GPL and EXK look interesting.

update I......vethy interesting...this guys track record is there.

ATPG HNR HERO NBR SGY GMXR have been solid performers and with Japan's energy issues I like this sector.

update II pay attention to this unwind......ooooooboy.

Thursday, March 17, 2011


Everything was going along so swimmingly....and suddenly an entire country cannot get food, gasoline, water, cash..... almost overnight the infrastructure of one of the most developed countries in the world is brought to its knees. Can it happen here? Of course not. After all we don't have any nuclear power plants. We don't have any major faults. We don't have any nuclear power plants built on major faults. Noooooooo not us.

I'll give you a hint .....IT CAN!!... Now a little anecdotal story. A very large damn was to be built in my neighborhood when I was a lad. My father asked a man that was on one of several massive drill rigs along the road what they were doing. The man replied that they had discovered a massive fault and were checking to see how deeply it ran. So far they had drilled for over four miles along its line. The damn was recreational and not hydro and had been fought for environmental reasons. Ultimately it was stopped but up until it was stopped the government officials building it denied there was any evidence of a fault line near the damn or lake.

Now we get to the reason for that little story. CONfidence. The little word with big implications that I keep bringing up. When the citizens of Japan lose CONfidence in their government then the entire ponzi of an economy becomes imperiled and they are rapidly losing confidence in their lying masters in Japan. We have a much bigger problem in that our currency is the world's reserve currency and it completely depends upon confidence. The endless pundits that are trotted out by CNBS everyday all contribute to the manufacturing of investor and consumer confidence. In other words its ALL about CONfidence. Pundits like Steve Leisman that blabber with sterling ponfication on the ability of the Fed to fix everything with monetary policy are essentially there to allay your fears. ARE THEY? Are they allaying your fears?

We all want to believe that we can have CONfidence restored by just printing money and making the stock market looks like its healthy thereby making a cancer-stricken world economy look healthy. So always beware when trading this can all end tomorrow. Are you prepared for a dislocation like Japan. You better be....Their dislocation can over the next few weeks begin to hit us. Thats not to mention an unforseen event like they had hitting here. It never hurts to remember the boy scout motto.

Today I will probably raise a little more cash on the green opening. Otherwise try and trade some gaps and see just what its going to take to stablize these reactors. That will be a nice time to squeeze the shorts also........they will jump all over that so be very careful short here. They trotted out every doom and gloomer they could yesterday so they must be planning a massive short squeeze today. gl all

Wednesday, March 16, 2011


A special note before we proceed. Having watched endless hours of the Japanese disaster footage one cannot help but to be awe-struck by the tremendous courage exhibited by virtually every individual I have seen. Men, women, boys, girls, and the elderly all seem to face one of the most fearsome confluence of nature and man-made disasters in recent memory. Everyday they just impress me that much more with their seemingly fearless fortitude with each endless challenge confronting them. I cannot put myself in their place nor can I imagine the pain they have suffered from their losses or the fear they must have of what may lay ahead for them. I can only admire from afar and extend my most sincere wish that they not only survive but show the world that they are one of the greatest examples of what the human experience is capable to you all.


Looking like the buyers are wanting to play long ball today. Not surprising but don't get to comfortable. We'll see how the volume plays. Certainly we are NOWHERE close to a top in these markets. I want to get that out right off the back. I had a young investor tell me smuggly a couple of days ago that he would not invest in gold or silver and smild knowingly as he gave his was in a bubble and he doesn't chase bubbles. I thought that his answer probably reflected the majority of investors out there...young or old. They have no understanding of what these metals represent.

Will they ultimately create a massive parabolic bubble of historic proportions? Probably. But if you wait for the top of an asset bubble in commodities to form then you are playing with fire. For one..when these go parabolic in the end the volatility is ten times what it is today. It will be heralded by 200 or 300 point daily moves. NOT 20 or 30 like now. THAT IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY.......200 to 300. More than likely there will be extreme euphoria for the least PANIC for the metal.....and YOU WON't want to sell your metal for fear of recieving a zimbabwe currency that would be worthless withing a few days. I am NOT going in to what you should be doing instead but one option is to just hang option.

I laughed at how incredibly naive his response was as he related that he was invested in bonds......My jaw dropped. I asked did he recall that gold sold for 35$ an ounce in the early 70s. It then ultimately ended in a parabolic spike to over 800 in 1980 and crashed to under 300 in the next 4 years while the fiat ponzi crowd took over the derivatives game for the next twenty years and created the greatest pyramid ever witnessed. Whats funny though is a gold investor in the early 70s still had an 800% gain in their investment AFTER the crash (orchestrated by the cabal) The low price of the metal continued through the late 90s with continued Central Bank selling.....hehehe. They had to keep a lid. Then the commodity cycle began to take place with gold once again moving as the cycle of fiat pyramid was becoming long in the tooth. Now we have gold at 1400 and IMO headed to 5 or 10K....That could be ultimately a 3000% move off of the late 90s low. Not a bad return...SO WHAT if it crashes from there still are up a thousand percent from 1999. These numbers are just mind boggling. Here is the kicker and here is the MAIN reason you want to have physical metal. It is truly a store of wealth. It could literally explode in price as the current printing press continues out of control and the overall deficit/debt crushes the economy.

Ask you friends how many own physical gold........NONE. Sounds like a bubble to me. The MSM like WSJ....CNBS....Bloomberg....Money Magazine....etc all tell you gold is a better day they will be right.

PS ask yourself a simple question .... why do all central banks own gold? Why? You don't. They do.

update I......clusterfock

update II.....faber interview have fun

Tuesday, March 15, 2011


Global Ponzi masters are wrestling with a monster they didn't expect. Nature as we have stated before has no time table and appears to be putting the Ponzi on notice who is really in charge. This is a reminder that the boom/bust cycles created by the Powers to Be can never truly allow for nature. As some of you already know my predictions of 2012 were just that...predictions. There are other elements out there that I always said could supercede my prognostications and we could very well be there.

As Red mentioned in some comments this is NOT an isolated Japanese problem. We live in a communal economic world. Most of you may already know this but we shifted decades ago to a "new and better" ..."just in time" method of inventory control to lessen the inventory driven recessions that we experienced in the 20th century. This now poses an interesting dilemna in a global economy. IF and its still an IF...but if any component in this process becomes unavailable in the manufacturing proces then the manufacturing process must stop. Right now as I type there is the possibility that in Japan...a key manufacturer of MANY components of our Car manufacturing AND airplane industy could have major shutdowns of factories surrounding the radiation leak area. Shutdowns of these plants could be crippling to our just in time manufacturers here in the US.

Of course the human tragedy of this disaster is not even measurable. Its snowing in many areas of Japan as they scramble to obtain food and gasoline now in many areas of Japan. These are the most stoic people I have ever witnessed. I am truly amazed. They are facing human tragedy to the degree that humanity has rarely witnessed and they are doing so without even a complaint. Just amazing.

Right now there are calculations being made on the damage but no one can even possibly get a handle on this damage yet. It is incalculable at this point. Right now we have one thing that is certain in the economic world ...FEAR and Panic...never underestimate their power on the human psyche.

Equities should take a pounding today duh.... What will be more interesting is to see how the world liquidity game responds. This is a massive deflatiionary event and you will see the Fed respond with MASSIVE PRINTING. No doubt there will be a short term effort to beat down precious metals. DONT BELIEVE it.... this is to be expected. Ultimately the fear trade goes to gold and not to mention Ben is going to print an insane ammount of money to keep the carry trade going.

Lastly lets hope and pray that the human toll this disaster is not overlooked and that we all try to make our own contributions. Prepare your own house too. Cash food shelter be aware this could spiral into a seizing up of world liquidity.

update I....fed announcement was VERY POSITIVE for MORE POMO as far as the eye can see....

update II......evacuation reported of spike in radiation and these fifty just pulled...

Monday, March 14, 2011


Things are looking up this morning......There have not been anyore Tsunamis...I've lost count of how many reactors are melting down.....the casualty count is in the tens of thousands.....Yes....its a wonderful world and better yet......we have the greatest economy in the world. Its really hard not to be optimistic when you see that kind of news. I'm sure that Larry Krudlow will crow incessantly about how positive this disaster actually is for free market capitalism. After all with TRILLIONS of Yen being added immediately to a debt that is sky high can the Krudlow scenario NOT be good.

Let's look at the status of reality. As several of the comments have alluded we are going to need a lot stimulus into the system with the fear and dislocations this disaster will create. CONfidence is definitely in a state of confusion in the sheep right now and Ben needs to be on guard. He has announced his POMO schedule and you can count on this coming in AT LEAST on time...with probably a sprinkle of extra juice. I would expect markets here to hold nicely for the next few days. Of course you never know they may feel compelled to make it look "natural" for some reason. ANYWAY it doesn't matter this is going to force more liquidity into the system and it has to be positive for PMs.

Enery stocks that we play HNR HERO SGY NBR ATPG should catch a bid. Not to mention the relaxation of drilling in the Gulf again. You can only hold the big boyz back so long. After all they do pull the pol's strings. Its ok do drill drill drill....just like its ok to build nuclear power plants in major earthquake zones right on the ocean where a forty foot tsunami wall can destroy your diesel back up. You see......its all goldilocks.

My assessment on uranium miner stocks is they will be massacred in the short term with great short squeeze opportunities which I may or may not try to play.

My swing trade still says that gold and silver have a bid until May......not straight up but this entire ponzi is crying fear right now and gold should run technically to over 1620 until a good correction. So you play the PMs however you want. As I've said and some of you that are more the BULLION. You KNOW WHY. But how many of you have? Thats right.....always a reason isn't there....hehhehe....ok I'll stop.

UPDATE ALERT.....This has to be brought up at this juncture. This ponzi is on thin ice right now. If the global ponzi hits a liquidity wall it is indeed possible that it could all shut down within the next two days. This is a liquidity crisis that cannot be filled by the printing press. Be aware that if there is a rush for the exits then you can turn out the lights. My advice is very simple here. Make sure you have some stores of food tomorrow and cash this most likely will not be necessary but obtaining some cash and having food stores intact is reasonable. This blog is not large enough to set off any global run on the bank lol...but for my friends and readers this is an event that can spiral quickly. Just a warning. Not a prediction. I still expect the Bernank to keep the game going.

live feed....

Sunday, March 13, 2011


Ireland is telling the EU to go Foch itself with the EU attempt (led by Germany and France) to impose further control over the PIIGS.

An overwhelming majority of Irish people have endorsed Taoiseach Enda Kenny's refusal to budge on Ireland's corporation tax rate during intense clashes with German and French leaders Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy.

Any climbdown by the Taoiseach on the issue would represent a case of "economic and political suicide", Michael McDowell, the former Progressive Democrat leader, said yesterday.

According to the latest Sunday Independent/Quantum Research Poll, 78 per cent of people think Mr Kenny was absolutely correct to refuse to offer "a gesture" to Mr Sarkozy in terms of our corporation tax rate in return for more favourable rates on the €85bn IMF/EU bailout.

People polled on Friday night saw the Irish corporation tax rate as the 'bedrock' of our multinational employment base and export figures.

Further details of the heated exchanges during the meeting emerged yesterday. Mr Kenny played heavily on his huge mandate from the Irish people that no move on the 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate was acceptable to the Irish people.

One senior government source said Mr Kenny "fought back against Mr Sarkozy's disingenuous arguments" and that he will "stand tough" no matter what pressure is brought to bear.

Mr Kenny made it clear that the "targeting" of Ireland in this manner was "unfair" and that Ireland required assistance to ensure its recovery.

Michael McDowell in today's Sunday Independent writes: "Sarkozy deserves a gesture -- but a gesture involving two digits and no other numbers.

Saturday, March 12, 2011


Right now there is a race against time for all those affected by this disaster in Japan. Not only are authorities dealing with a devastating earthquake with survivors trapped...but they are trapped WET and in Near freezing temperatures. With that type of exposure I fear that very few will ultimately be saved. If we were dealing with these temperatures and dry rubble conditions then survival is possible but with these wet and cold conditions very few will be found alive in the rubble. Many alive will die of exposure tonight. Temperatures tonight in this area will be near freezing.

The second disaster taking place that many cannot get a grasp of is the meltdowns in at least three reactors occurring in various stages. It appears that the meltdown has reached a critical stage and more than likely cannot be reversed without the arrival of generators for massive cooling of the fuel rods. Even with this power source it is unclear as to whether the flow structure is even in place any longer to cool the fuel rods effectively. Apparently they are desperate and are flooding the fuel rods with Ocean water in at least one reactor. This sounds beyond desperate and a search basically to do "something". There will not be a nuclear explosion, but there could be a lesser explosion with the gasses formed from coolant substances and the expulsion of high levels of radioactive contaminated gasses into the atmosphere. Another possibility is the concrete base of the reactor is compromised and the molten rods in a meltdown penetrate into the earth's crust contaminating the areas water supply for years to come....effectively turning many square miles of precious Japanese Real Estate into a dead zone. No one can predict the current state of affairs but right now I suspect many people are in the process of killing themselves at those reactors. Some will die in the next few days some over the next months and years.

Lets hope these facilities can contain their toxic brew and lets hope those souls fighting this are never forgotten. gl


Looks like the Germans are making a move on the Central Bankers...hehhehe ...this is still only a stall tactic but my guess is the Germans are getting ready to pull the plug on any austerity. Look for a battle to come. TRANSLATED...the Bankers are HOSING the Krauts.......They are going to drain the Germans.......oooboy this should set off some home fires for the Germans.

European leaders widened the scope of the euro’s rescue fund, authorized it to buy government bonds and eased the terms of Greek bailout loans as they unexpectedly pushed through fresh measures to end the bloc’s debt crisis.

Under a pact struck at 1:30 a.m. in Brussels after eight hours of talks, the bailout facility will now be able to spend its full 440 billion-euro capacity ($611 billion) and to buy bonds directly from governments. In a blow to European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, it won’t be allowed to purchase debt in the open market or to finance debt buybacks.


3:08 a.m. ET, 5:08 p.m. Tokyo] An explosion has been reported near a nuclear plant in northeastern Japan's Fukushima prefecture, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported, citing the country's nuclear and industrial safety agency.

Looking more and more bleak tonight for the stricken reactor. Right now I am certain there is a tremendous effort going on to save this plant from creating a catastrophic environmental meltdown and/or fission release. The Chernobyl story was horrific when it was later told. I hope this ending is better. This appears to be headed for hell right now. gl all.....

more on it

just in......picture o chit....if you pray....PRAY now

BBC news live coverage...

update II incredible video coming in from Japan....massive fires going on and the destruction is MUCH WORSE than originally reported...casualties will be much higher than origanlly reported......entire coastal cities are destroyed.........and tens of thousands missing ...many of these areas have not even been assessed yet....JUST IN CATASTROPHIC FAILURE Of FUKU in PROCESS....being reported on CNN
2252: Reuters: Operators are preparing to release radioactive steam from the number three reactor at Fukushima No. 1 plant, after the cooling system failed there

Friday, March 11, 2011


One of the largest earthquakes ever occurred 150 kilometers off Japans northern coast creating a massive tsunami and concomittant damaging fires. Large airports were hit by the tsunamis with fires in refineries burning now. Damage appears massive. This appears to be in these early hours to be an incredibly damaging earthquake with tsunamis still threatening not only the coast of Japan but the entire Pacific basin to Hawaii. My guess is as the morning unfolds this could have an impact on many aspects of Japans infrastructure and economy. I have watched the tsunami hit real-time and many cities are under water as I type. Let's hope that by morning this story does not unfold as catastrophic as what it appears to be at this time. Massive casualties appear unavoidable.

Update I.....this is a deflationary event therefore it will be met with money printing....a de facto QE3 event. I had some question if the QE2 would be "light" next week but now you may expect full printing after this event. Pay attention today to any Fed speak that occurs. More importantly lets all be aware of the human tragedy from this event and hope that their loss of life will be respected. This is truly a massive tragedy.

Update II.....fighting against time....hell is coming and some very brave scientist are about to give their lives......

Thursday, March 10, 2011


Our collective suffering is about to end. The greatest heist in the history of the world is about to come to a close. With the trial commencing of Rajaratnam it will not be long before justice is served and the "pound of flesh" is served to the masses. After hundreds of Trillions of our future have evaporated into derivative heaven many people will be able to sigh and relax knowing that justice was served. Now there is a new Sheriff in town... The Dodd/Frank bill will now serve as the Maginot Line for anyone ever thinking of trying to take down the World's financial system. I know that this observer is keen to play in the new casino and is happy they changed pit

Now on to the game. I apologize for my lack of particular prediction on specific sectors and stocks recently but this seemed probably too clear to me. Gold is consolidating for its next push up to 1500 then 1650. I don't know what impetus they will use to explain it but I suspect it will be more of the know.... global insurrection and Euro PIIGS melting down stuff!! I noticed that Spain was down graded today by Moodys. It won't be too long on those Piigs will start smelling like cooked pork.

Silver is a little different story. Everyone is talking about it and I really don't expect it to do anything beyong keeping a controlled move from the lower left to the upper right untill it smell the 50 area. Then it should have one nice correction. I cannot predict this with certainty but I only can think what I would do if I had the world's largest naked short position on a precious metal that was being bought by every numbskull in the world (including me) and we were literally void of the physical metal. You MUST shake out some physical and that is the only way I see the physical getting coughed up. If you can't shake out the physical you are going to default at the Comex and LBMA.

Oil is taking a beat down this morning. It must be taken down or this entire engineered recovery is over. I've said for over a year now that the run-up in oil cannot stay over 90 any length of time or the fragile consumer is over. We spent all of this time trying to convince the Joe six packs that still have a job that they can spend and charge again and we jam a hot oil poker up their ass. Sorry...that dose of reality of a hundred bucks when they fill up their truck might as well be a bullet to their head.
Even out dumb sheep realize they're through.

Uranium is bouncing now in oversold but we all know that can get worse.....I added to my UEC two days ago but that looks like it was way too early. Its a longer term hold and It will be fine. This is a long play.

Bill Gross is out of Treasuries. This is NOTHING but bid for QE 3 as if Ben can do ANYTHING else. Its coming. Its just a matter of WHEN. gl

POMO SHMOMO Operation Date1 Settlement Date Operation Type2 Maturity
Range Expected Purchase Size
March 14, 2011 March 15, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018 – 02/15/2021 $6.5 - $8.5 billion
March 16, 2011 March 17, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 03/31/2015 – 08/31/2016 $5.5 - $7.5 billion
March 17, 2011 March 18, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 09/30/2013 – 02/28/2015 $5.5 - $7.5 billion
March 18, 2011 March 21, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013 – 02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
March 21, 2011 March 22, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028 – 02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
March 22, 2011 March 23, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 09/30/2016 – 02/28/2018 $6.5 - $8.5 billion
March 23, 2011 March 24, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018 – 02/15/2021 $6.5 - $8.5 billion
March 24, 2011 March 25, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 09/30/2013 – 02/28/2015 $5.5 - $7.5 billion
March 25, 2011 March 28, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 09/30/2012 – 09/15/2013 $4 - $6 billion
March 28, 2011 March 29, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 03/31/2015 – 08/31/2016 $5.5 - $7.5 billion
March 29, 2011 March 30, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013 – 02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
March 30, 2011 March 31, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/15/2013 – 02/28/2015 $5.5 - $7.5 billion
March 31, 2011 April 1, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2021 – 11/15/2027 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 4, 2011 April 5, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2016 – 03/31/2018 $6.5 - $8.5 billion
April 5, 2011 April 6, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018 – 02/15/2021 $6.5 - $8.5 billion
April 6, 2011 April 7, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028 – 02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 7, 2011 April 8, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015 – 09/30/2016 $5.5 - $7.5 billion
April 11, 2011 April 12, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2016 – 03/31/2018 $6.5 - $8.5 billion

The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on April 12, 2011. At that time, the Desk will also publish information on prices paid for securities included in the operations listed above.

1Operations are tentatively scheduled to begin around 10:15 AM and close at 11:00 AM unless noted otherwise.
2Nominal coupon operations are specified as “Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase” and TIPS operations are specified as “Outright TIPS Purchase”

Date Schedule
Mar 14 - Apr 11, 2011 Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $102 billion. This represents $80 billion in purchases of the announced $600 billion purchase program and $22 billion in purchases associated with principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-March and mid-April.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011


We have Extend and Pretend....but we are about to enter into another phase of the "Bernank Experiment"...Delay and Pray. This will be another marvel of financial engineering that will amaze you. It will occur when QE 2 ends. There are warning shots from several Fed Govenors that have indicated there will be an abrupt cessation of QE. If this occurs then the hope is the economy will have enough momentum by June to begin to carry itself. That employment by then will be growing at over 250K month over month. Of course longer term rates will nose higher slightly but this will hardly be felt by the housing industry and consumer. Now who will be buying those know....ANYTHING over a year or two in maturity. I know I just can't wait with all of that money sloshing around that we've shoved into the system. Just waiting to wash back on top of us like a giant tsunami.

Are you starting to get the picture? We will still have a damaged and fragile economy in June and withdrawing QE is going to have very predictable consequences and Ben knows it. So the question posed is really how is he going to implement QE 3 in the face of an increasingly "tough" Republican congress led by the stalwart fiscal money manager John Boehner. How could anyone face odds like this and expect to be successful with getting a money printing scheme like QE 3 through?

Let me think....I believe I shall go to my Rolodex and look under "mass sucker play" and WALA! I found it........FEAR!....It says very clearly on my card that the sheep shall line up for anything if we bring in this little product. So there you have it. It is a self fulfilling game here. Stop QE and guess what is going to happen. Of course you will have some predict this economy will fly on its own as we draw near but it cannot and will not. If you also thing that the barometer of the economy "the market" is going to drop off a cliff then THINK AGAIN. They cannot let it. So you will see an engineered market drop just like last years pull back, but this one will need to have a little more volatility and FEAR in it so expect some better fireworks. NOT to mention they need to knock down some commodity prices with the temporary "withdrawal of liquidity". Hehehehe. Of course bonds will magically show money flowing into them as the dollar strengthens and gold and especially silver take hits. A caveate may not actually take much of a hit though so your core will survive. AGAIN...this will be managed as they let the sheep baaa for help. Ben will calmly and confidently reinstitue QE 3 and proclaim that just as QE 2 was successful so will 3. Saaaaved!!!!!

We can return to American Idol and I can find out who the next Idol is. Just remember little devil children.......nothing is for free.

So I predict you get to play in the Casino awhile longer just don't sit at the table too long. I have given you the plan. I cannot promise you they will keep the market up all the way through May....but then who knows.

This is the nastiest market you will ever trade and everything you hear on CNBS is intended to obfuscate and move you in a desired direction. Just learn how to interpret it. BTW gold will see 1650 before June and silver will see over 40

update I....nice essay on the mideast revolutions

update II....without a doubt this is an EXTREMELY disturbing interview with Harvey

Where its all headed fast.........

Tuesday, March 8, 2011


While watching CNBS a theme on one of their segments today was an interview with a Harry Winston's CEO who was pumping diamonds discussing the ammount of extremely expensive diamonds that were being sold worldwide....many very large diamonds up to even 100 carats. Thats right I know its hard for you to believe but in the midst of a global financial collapse the very very rich are buying incredibly expensive diamonds. What does that mean? For one thing the rich are getting richer. SHOCKING! It might also be indicative that the very rich are perhaps investing in something other than fiat. Whatever you may believe there is a pile of money washing around the world and its going to get bigger. It has to find a place to land and if the very wealthy and the "smart money" distrust fiat its going into something they think has value........commodities. But more directly of course we have to look at gold and silver as the ultimate store. Silver for the masses and gold for the Kings.

Of course we have extended the most recent rally to some short term overbought conditions so expect a pullback but don't count on it. Once again If you are trying to trade this like an inveterate gambler....I hope you have at least tried to keep a core of miners and paper physical in PSLV and PHYS. I hope.

Next on the morning list of things to use toilet paper for is URANIUM MINERS. They are stubbornly refusing to budge off of the consolidation. Let's maintain our patience and not try to change our core strategy with UEC URG URZ DNN. RSI is still below fifty.

In the news today Raj Rajaratnam is hitting the headlines as the "face of Wallstreet"...HAHAHAHA.....Wallstreet????? Are you kiddin me???? Well to be fair ....they did just arrest a Goldman man.....GUPTA!!!!! HEHEHHEHEHEEHHE. Yup our country is on top of the financial crisis and the two culprits that caused it. I know I feel better now....

I still like trying to trade SLW ANV GPL EZK HNR LNG here. so watch them for pullbacks...

BTW Wilbur Ross doing his duty for the Cabal ...stated innocently on CNBS that "it seems to me that oil is the new gold..." Well yes Wilbur any chance you can get to suppress that damn gold threat to the cabal you've gotta take it don't you?? Maybe they'll give you another bone for that little statement. ehhehhehe

update I new pomo to be announced 2pm March 10 here is whats left the next two days

March 8, 2011 March 9, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 09/30/2016 – 02/28/2018 $6 – $8 billion

March 9, 2011 March 10, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 03/31/2015 – 08/31/2016 $5 – $7 billion

update II......Evening news word...CHAOS. Trying to find a news channel to show what is going on is like being locked for a day in a vegan spa then having a medium rare aged ribeye put under your chops. I feel like someone is starving me. The control of national and world news is becoming absurd. No wonder the sheep in other countries are going crazy. I guess the opportunity provided by the internet with their mobile devices has given them a window to the world. Funny how we are headed in the opposite direction with a continual dumbing down of our sheep. I am going to watch Al Jazeera live now and try and play Boggle with my daughter Have a good nite.

update III......don't sell your gold..

Monday, March 7, 2011


Silver's move will draw the attention of the Bernank. With a breakout of silver the Bernank will make a move to stop its rise. If I were the Bernank I would be very concerned regarding the global breakout of commodity prices and without some brakes applied soon the entire ponzi could explode before spring. I believe that the Bernank is going to make a move within the next few days to tap down this move. But remember one thing that may make this move somewhat delayed and that is he WANTS inflation. He wants you to "feel" your savings and money are losing by not going into the "velocity" part of the equation. That is ultimately part of the entire CONfidence game. Without CONfidence a fiat game has no clothes.

My guess is we will get some "jawboning" from one of the fed govenors. Maybe Hoenig first regarding interest rates. This is a game of incredible stakes. If they cannot get control of the costs of essential then the charade is truly over. I mentioned last year when I would try to short oil that the price of this commodity was essential to maintain a fragile recovery. It was obvious that the cost of essentials like oil would ramp up with STAGFLATION as we printed money. The tentacles of the Fed reach into many aspects of the control of these commodities but even the Fed has some limits. Those limits are certainly Nature. And we know how that game will end.

Right now we have a flashing red light for headline consumes to see in terms of their "money" and that is Silver, Gold, and Oil. Media is desperately trying to attach oil's rise to the conflict and resultant "drop" in production in Libya. Watta joke.

My PHYS holdings will ride until gold reaches near the 1600 level (White House address)...nice message. My PSLV holdings have reached a core level but I am tempted to trade them. My miners are very low now..... and I could really miss some up move here if Silver makes a break for a 40 headline number. I'll try and do short term trading but I am going to maintain 50% cash level for a few days. I do believe there will be some kind of trickery this week on commods. Lets be careful but not tooooo scared.

Uranium appears to be trying to break out. I'll watch the technicals closely the next few days. UEC URZ DNN URG USU......time for action in these. gl

Update I.....something has to give here.....this is reaching an extreme. Whenever it hits Gold should run to over 1600 as they put a bandaid on this.

update II......note the element that will be needed.....thats right....U-233

Saturday, March 5, 2011


Do you think we are leaving the Middle East? Do you think our occupation of Iraq or Afghanistan will end? Do you think it is an accident that we have over 800 military bases in over 150 Countries? BTW google to confirm. Do you think its an accident that we spend more on military than the rest of the world COMBINED? Perhaps these numbers mean nothing to you or you refuse to even accept them as valid...fine. But understand the next part of this. It will help you understand WHY!

This country embarked on a peacetime militarism after World War II that prompted Eisenhower to become so alarmed that he "cleverly" waited until the END of his two terms to issue his famous speech "beware of the military industrial complex". Please note his word choice. He didn't utter the warning of the ominous Chinese or the ominous Ruskies or the ominous Muslims. He didn't have the "War on Terrorism" yet or we could have thrown that one in. Did you know Eisenhower was the first American President to decide to give a "Farewell speech"? AND WHY on this subject? Why would the Supreme Allied Commander and West Point graduate from Red as Red Kansas be so alarmed about the new phrase he would coin "The Military Industrial Complex"?

Reagan promised to increase miltary spending and not only did he increase it ...he doubled it. We doubled the debt our country had accumulated from Washington up to his election. No conservative even blinked. Russia was already broke but every poilitcal idealogue jumped on the bandwagon to proclaim the buildup of our military spending as the reason the wall came down. I love it. Russia was broke because of Afghanistan and their military spending and of course their piss poor excuse of political system Communism/socialism. They had a corrupt oligarchy that had created a complete lack of confidence by their populace. They kept their control through a harsh military presence in their population and the secret police ....KGB. Sound familiar?? Their people had lost their freedom as the rest of the world passed them by. When they started receiving CNN live in was all over for the ruse.

Where are WE today in the scheme of things. We are in a state of MALINVESTMENT that is going to strangle our country until we face up to its threat. If we ended the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq tomorrow and brought home the troops and contractors and layed off all of the related jobs in the states right now that are supporting the military industrial complex Directly involved with JUST those two wars. We would be in INSTANT Depression. Unemployment would explode to over 20%. The U6 unemployment would be approaching 30%.....higher than the Great Depression. So you is NOT going to happen. Those of you who believe that we are engaged in a "War on Terrorism" can relax....we will continue this war in perpetuity... IT IS WRITTEN.

Now for the good stuff. It gets better. Eisenhower warned of the global idealogical war that would be used to perpetuate the military industrial that time it was Communism.....with that collapse another had to be it is "terrorism". The "War on Terrorism". What better war to have. One that you can perpetuate yourself by a Middle East Policy that creates martyrs and enemies by the tens of thousands on a daily basis. Its perfect. So you see, we aren't leaving. Not only that but we are going to get more deeply involved. Its not that we can afford to do this kind of involvement. Its that we have structured our economy through malinvestment to where we CANNOT stop creating war. So be happy. Rest assured your able bodied children have a future. Joe Lieberman John McCain and any other democrat or republican is going to keep this going.........hehehehee...its the game. gl and have a nice weekend.......we have enemies EVERYWHERE!!!!!!

Friday, March 4, 2011


We managed to obtain an inside look at the Job's report and its a blockbuster.....over 650K new jobs reported. So bend over and kiss your gold and silver goodbye. Ben can now stop printing and raise rates. This game is over Rover....send Jimmy over. The CNBS reporters will be preparing for this report with an octagon of erstwhile economic reporters and commentators. This information cannot come at a better time for the ponzi. Ben's lower lip quivered quite a bit on Tuesday during some really "tough" questioning by the Senators that are protecting the common citizen's interests. I guess Ben was trying to probably trying to not break out giggling during the hearings. After all where could he go for a better circus. Our carefully selected senators like the dipchit from Louisianna that was busted for hiring hookers while he espoused family values and castigated Clinton for a blow remember him ....Vitter...yes of course he was going to grill Ben.....hehehe. Bought and paid for. Just like all of his phony colleagues. Just a dog and pony show. Which of course brings me back to the CNBS octagon before the jobs number. Can you imagine the excitement and suspense that must be building in the Steve Leisman household tonight. He's probably staying up late tonight trying to anticipate some of the tough questioning that Ranger Rick Santelli will hit him with. I'm not sure if he and Santelli will get in a major Youtube fight but I'm sure some special moments will arise.

I know this reporter/blogger/investor/sheeple/dipchit will have a hard time resting tonight. This is an incredibly important moment in our history. If they can tag 250K will see fireworks going off ON THE SET. Leisman has promised to kiss Beck Quicky AND Joe Kiernan if the hit the mark. Personally I want to see Becky and Erin do it on air but I'm afraid Erin is in Saudi doing an interview with one of the Royal Princes buying stocks on line in his bedouin tent during a sand storm tomorrow.

With a full octagon playing for the sheep like me in the morning the ratings should be out of sight. I wonder how many times they will repeat the magic numbers before the 8:30 EST announcement. They needn't bother...I already know it.....650K...its all we ever could have hoped for. Its heaven sent. All the printing has restored CONfidence and the structural disaster we call an economy is fixed. So send your fat little cake eating kids off to school and go do something important this morning like start looking for a new McMansion to buy this year. Its all been fixed. I'm buying a new Escalade AND a Porche. Top that.

Then again I've seen this movie before....and if they drop another load of poop at 8:30 I am going to be very upset. I'll have to slap my informer on the 650K number and cancel the car buys. Then I'll have to buy more silver and gold stocks because I know Ben's going for the printer fast.

Keep your eyes on the ball this is the year to try and trade this market. Uranium looked really good yesterday and may be getting the needed rotation from the "boyz"...UEC and DNN were particularly strong....keep your eyes on those big boyz.

Gold and silver miners need consolidation..... don't go to wild on um for a couple of days. They need time to "breathe" and have fun

PS look at UURAF.PK....up 20% yesterday...hehehhe.

Thursday, March 3, 2011


But don't count on it. As I've said before POMO POMO POMO. Do our banksters like to rip you apart with volatility? Of course they do. But just remember Ben is putting money in their pockets to ramp the market up. Unfortunately for Ben they are ramping up the costs of essentials too but then that is another story. Right now we are looking at the effects of POMO on our game and that is the precious metals and miners. In particular gold and silver with Uranium miners as a side bet. Uranium has been the red-headed step child for several weeks now. Gettin oversold on the stochastics so I expect that reversal soon.

I did a simple examination of the three year channel in gold last night and was pleasantly surprised to see that the near term target in gold is 1650 NOT 1500. This would certainly place miners in a nice level. I suggest you take a look at EGO...its not participating yet. Also ANV as a trade on pullbacks during this run.

Silver remains a monster trade and is MUCH harder to place a target price on. I think you have to view its top target on this run as closer to 40 or higher. The reason I am picking that number as a minimum is that we have to reach a level where the actual bullion holders start to part with their bullion. The PTB need to shake out some bullion to fulfill their obligations and stop delivery of COMEX bullion.

Money is still coming like manna from heaven so don't worry Ben has our speculative biotech back. In other words money will rotate back into some of these pieces of shit as I like to refer to them. Also some of them are actually doing good and if you own one of them then you will reap a tremendous reward someday financially. Many of these that are played here have cancer treatments as their core so you are investing in an area that should be near and dear to you.

Lastly try and invest in these NG plays on pullbacks HERO HNR ATPG NBR SGY....put um in your pipe and smoke um. gl

Update I....i like the NG sector....and just for historical is a five year chart on LNG......

Wednesday, March 2, 2011


For two years here I have made references repeatedly to economic cycles and given you as much explanation as I am capable of. I have referenced a number of masters in this area and have tried to get you to do your own due diligence. Before I go further I want to stop and emphasize that this is NOT all doom and gloom. We have terrible excesses that have accrued and they must be reset. This requires a cleansing and that is what is coming. It does not necessarily mean the end of your world as you know it is coming. So think positive in the context that the other side will be the opportunity of a lifetime. It will not be easy getting there however. It will require planning and discipline. It will require listening to your own inner voice telling you what the right decision is for you to make in the coming months and years.

I enjoy investing in the precious metals but they are not everything. I still encourage people to invest in them as a security measure. It usually doesn't work. Most sheeple are still conditioned to view gold and silver as a "poor long term investment"...and as a "volatile"..."scary" investment....after all who can forget the famous gold collapse in the 80s from 800 down to 250 dollars......of course no one mentions gold was at 40 dollars just ten years before.

I like to offer people an option.....IF they had ten thousand dollars that they had to bury in there backyard for ten years OR they could buy ten thousand in gold now and bury it for ten years....which option would they choose??? Its funny........not ONE single person has chosen burying the cash....but almost all of the respondents still won't buy gold. Some of their excuses are I'm waiting for a pullback. had your 10% pullback last month and you sat on your hands...face are a sheeple.... That's ok some really smart people made you that way and you really never stood a chance.

Back to the cycles....these are the 120year K wave "revolutionary cycle" coming its already your eyes look at the Middle East, Africa, Europe. This is an exhilirating time in history. Our media is only covering this superficially. You learn a lot more watching it live on Al Jazeera...and listening to the actual people on the street.

In time we will have our own form of "revolution". How it plays out I cannot predict.....only speculate....but we will. This current Corruptocracy cannot continue. gl to all of you ....I'm reloading some of my ANV SLW GPL EXK on pull backs....still have nice cores of PSLV PHYS and uranium miners and

Here is Drokes article today on some of the long cycle and things I have talked about previously......

update I....uranium to 100 this year?

update II......have fun with this "movie" it true??? certainly the history is..

update III My public service announcement for the

From the US Mint:
Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coins continues to be temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. Until recently, all available silver bullion blanks were being allocated to the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-61 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .”
Although the demand for precious metal coins remains high, the increase in supply of planchets—coupled with a lower demand for bullion orders in August and September—allowed the United States Mint to meet public demand and shift some capacity to produce numismatic versions of the American Eagle One Ounce Silver Proof Coin.
However, because of the continued demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins, 2010-dated American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coins will not be produced.
The United States Mint will resume production of American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coins once sufficient inventories of silver bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Silver Coin products.