Tuesday, March 29, 2011

CONFIDENCE update II

Its everything. Without re-establishing CONfidence back into the markets one cannot get the consumer back into spending and making that GDP move up. Without velocity of money there can be NO movement in this liquidity driven recovery. CAN you change the equation of velocity by the current monetary policy? Maybe. Perhaps you can convince the populace that the best barometer of the health of our economy (the market)is healthy again by the current POMO/ponzi. In fact it may be that the Fed doesn't even care if many on the inside realize the market is completely fluffed by the Fed.......just as long as they know the market is UP.

The only thing that we are interested in is what path this manipulated/monetary/liquidity lead "recovery" in the market will take. If the goal of this entire monetary exercise is to keep the animal spirits alive in the public with a strong appearing stock market then one does not want to fight the fed by shorting the market running into June. On the other hand this entire bull is getting very long in the tooth. If you remember how bulls end then you also know that we haven't seen the volatility yet marking the end of the bull. ESPECIALLY in precious metals.

One reason that many here are in precious metals as an investment is their ability to retain value as a currency. Right now you really haven't seen the final stages of the world fiat death spiral. When that fear truly hits there will be an explosion in the PM's.

Meanwhile feel free to gamble and play your Biotech specs with the hot money. Just remember what value is.

update I POMO will continue.... and this is why. The Conference Board’s confidence index fell to a three- month low of 63.4 from a revised 72 reading in February, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop this month to 65.

Sentiment may remain suppressed as higher prices at service stations and supermarkets take a bigger bite out of Americans’ incomes. A pickup in the job market and savings from tax cuts make it less likely that household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, will falter. bloomberg

update II........China issues critical summary of the "New War" very important read...
This essentially completes what this blog has been stating is the coming storm.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinas-dagong-sees-no-threat-fed-monetization-ending-believes-world-credit-war-about-escalat?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

25 comments:

  1. Hi Kli
    Did you listen to the Jim Rickards interview on KWN. He said the Fed's balance sheet is so big now that they can have a stealth or backdoor QE 3 without ever making a formal announcement. He said stuff matures all the time and they can take money from the mature balance sheet and invest in teasuries and securities.
    He did not however rule QE3.

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  2. "He did not however rule QE3."

    Should read he did not rule out QE3.

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  3. Tom ...the decisions are already made on how they will conduct monetary policy this year...and yes if they don't make a formal QE3 announcement then they will conduct a backdoor monetization. They have to. I still expect a paint job on the SnP to continue this year but with great trades.

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  4. go zlcs, looking at anik around here, hovering around 50sma at 8.83..Palmerjo, with a low float stock like anik, are hedge funds or MM's more often looking at taking out stops or gunning for sma averages?

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  5. creditguy,

    First they look at taking out stops and depending on what they get they can take it then to the next level.

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  6. They are keeping RNN so far around 1.07, the next two days is the teller whether they want to take it below $1 or not, the offering at 1.20 is supposed to close on March 31st which is thursday, volume is heavy which is expected since $10M is the target for their dilution, once the dilution is done it might go sideways for a while before they run it up to 1.50 or 1.60, so far they are doing it textbook.

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  7. got stopped out of PEIX for 25% loss....bought more gmxr.....lets keep the ponzi alive....whew hew...

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  8. Thanks PJoe! the gap up in early feb. on anik from 7-9 is scaring me..

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  9. on CRYP there was short squeeze around 1.68 after taking it down heavy today, in regard to ZLCS 2.50 needs to break decisively for it to go higher.

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  10. creditguy,

    They know very well where the gaps are and in many cases they will try to fill the gap, it's lot easier to accomplish it with low float, low volume stocks.

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  11. Boring day for the most part but you can adjust positions ...still holding 40% cash

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  12. woodcarver
    will sell zlcs off the rest of the week will be looking for fast and furious look at our old nemisis TXCC hotter than a fresh fox in a forrest fire

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  13. Just to note, Phil Davis was bearish yesterday & I suspect today, because the Nasdaq failed to reach 2750. He feels we need to close above this for the bull run to continue.
    Where are we now as of 1:24pm ET?? 2747
    So close, yet not there yet.
    It will be interesting to see how we close today.

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  14. free and clear and flying now doc

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  15. http://seekingalpha.com/article/260519-renesola-a-solar-stock-shining-through?source=hp_wc&wc_num=1

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  16. SGY looking good today. Made some nice gains with LULU the last couple of days. I think it's headed to $100 near term.

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  17. bud.....momo still catching bids...just don't get greedy and believe the hype

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  18. kli, kenny, dave,

    hint, hint, heheeeee!

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/260731-rexahn-surprises-investors-with-timing-of-financing-announcement?source=yahoo

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  19. kenny,

    Thanks for the TXCC, that was a nice short from $5, low float with high volume means excellent play both side of the coin, heheee!

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  20. Kli, LULU was a pure casino play for me. Took profits, will let the rest ride out. Still holding SGY, HNR, and some miners. Looking to add some PSLV if there's a pullback. Do you think we see $40 silver before dipping to the low $30s?

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  21. kenny,

    TXCC was just getting way ahead of itself especially after doubling in such short amount of time which meant it was time for some spanking ( shorting), heheeeee!

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  22. Sounds like you're well positioned. bud.....play silver to top forty before a larger correction...keep plenty of cash in case they are able to pull a correction to 34 instead.

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  23. joe
    been spanked by that baby in the beginning wish i would have been home when it caught my eye but work was there i will watch it no emotion but i will pay attention to both ways i thought it might catch your eye

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  24. Keep an eye on APPY for spec. momo play....
    volume move plus closed above 200..maybe some profit taking unless day traders get ahold of it in the AM...

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  25. not a big fan of their product...(like that matters) hehehehe

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