Tuesday, March 15, 2011

PONZI...MEET GODZILLA update II update EVACUATION

Global Ponzi masters are wrestling with a monster they didn't expect. Nature as we have stated before has no time table and appears to be putting the Ponzi on notice who is really in charge. This is a reminder that the boom/bust cycles created by the Powers to Be can never truly allow for nature. As some of you already know my predictions of 2012 were just that...predictions. There are other elements out there that I always said could supercede my prognostications and we could very well be there.

As Red mentioned in some comments this is NOT an isolated Japanese problem. We live in a communal economic world. Most of you may already know this but we shifted decades ago to a "new and better" ..."just in time" method of inventory control to lessen the inventory driven recessions that we experienced in the 20th century. This now poses an interesting dilemna in a global economy. IF and its still an IF...but if any component in this process becomes unavailable in the manufacturing proces then the manufacturing process must stop. Right now as I type there is the possibility that in Japan...a key manufacturer of MANY components of our Car manufacturing AND airplane industy could have major shutdowns of factories surrounding the radiation leak area. Shutdowns of these plants could be crippling to our just in time manufacturers here in the US.

Of course the human tragedy of this disaster is not even measurable. Its snowing in many areas of Japan as they scramble to obtain food and gasoline now in many areas of Japan. These are the most stoic people I have ever witnessed. I am truly amazed. They are facing human tragedy to the degree that humanity has rarely witnessed and they are doing so without even a complaint. Just amazing.

Right now there are calculations being made on the damage but no one can even possibly get a handle on this damage yet. It is incalculable at this point. Right now we have one thing that is certain in the economic world ...FEAR and Panic...never underestimate their power on the human psyche.

Equities should take a pounding today duh.... What will be more interesting is to see how the world liquidity game responds. This is a massive deflatiionary event and you will see the Fed respond with MASSIVE PRINTING. No doubt there will be a short term effort to beat down precious metals. DONT BELIEVE it.... this is to be expected. Ultimately the fear trade goes to gold and not to mention Ben is going to print an insane ammount of money to keep the carry trade going.

Lastly lets hope and pray that the human toll this disaster is not overlooked and that we all try to make our own contributions. Prepare your own house too. Cash food shelter water.....gl be aware this could spiral into a seizing up of world liquidity.

update I....fed announcement was VERY POSITIVE for MORE POMO as far as the eye can see....

update II......evacuation reported of spike in radiation and these fifty just pulled...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html?_r=1

63 comments:

  1. WOW What a mess and to think Japan is a bargain now wait a few more days 1100 point sell off yes their long wave winter is here I guess ours is coming too...GOLD and silver taking it hard...OLE LNG too funny on the upswing as everything else craters even silver and gold...KLI Japan stock mkt is only 3500 points from 5k will be close to a 90 percent drop from 1989...good luck all...my sa profits are now under water I will hold so much for safe havens lol..

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  2. PTB beating gold and silver down premarket....hehhehehe.....watta bunch of weasels.......looks like I get to buy at a big discount maybe.....have to see how far they take it......

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  3. Looks like they will try to take gold to 1320 level...just a guess

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  4. $HUI should be used as your proxy and 509 should be touched before you nibble.....see how the miners respond there.......then 495 MUST be held if not then look for 435 level next.....DO NOT be a hero...use your dry powder when these levels are reached for a nibble....do not make any long term commitment until these levels hold and you see a volume confirmation....gl

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  5. Silver could hit 30.50....then 26......btw this is a massive deflationory event and the PTB are using is and the liquidity that is being sopped up to beat the chit out of these PMs...ITS THE GAME...what you as an investor MUST KNOW...is this means MASSIVE PRINTING...ultimately this means the commods and PMs will not only recover but ultimately explode

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  6. It is difficult to get a clear understanding on just what is going on with these Nuclear Power Plants. Most of the articles contain words such as "may" and "possibly". I suspect information is being suppressed, yet other information is being sensationalized. I still feel the news is being overblown, but I am not going to stand in front of a train either.

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  7. I'm still having an issue deciphering the new reports. Human interest story on finding an american teacher, a granny in the face of who knows how many lost, bodies washing ashore.

    I'm assuming the worst with the reactors, people being told to stay inside, don't drink the tap water? I'm assuming bottled water is a little hard to come by. Finally hearing the Japanese government is "worried" Oh boy.

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  8. hey doc - weird I was writing the same thoughts as you were. Therein lies the problem, have I been faked out by the messages like "we are hopeful to get things under control", "we knew there would be explosions" or should there be some hope? Freight train is being optimistic I'm afraid.

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  9. I suggest you listen to the language from the Japaneses govs and multiply by 10.......bottom line no one knows full extent of the damage OR the potential...a lot depends on weather and distribution of the radiation field. Potentially you are talking a dead zone for years of thousands of square miles...that is not thinkable in Japan..

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  10. YCS is a proshares short on the Yen....at this point the yen will strengthen as the carry trade unwinds......but ultimately this will all be bearish for the yen as they print their way out

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  11. Looks like a buy opportunity to me...OOPS already bought DAMN!!!!

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  12. Language from Japanese gov is becoming darker...

    UEC even more of a deal today...those are stocks I wouldn't want to be holding overnight. Stops won't help. Reminds me of the financial stocks when the "crisis" was really moving.

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  13. Save me mista Ben save me save me mista Ben....hehehhehe....ohhhh wait until Krudlow is on tonight.....watta putz.....

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  14. Sorry couldn't resist added to OSIR and my new fav GPL......yummmmm......may get cheaper piggies

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  15. remember Ben B and buddies meet today...great scheduling!

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  16. kli,

    look at what OSIR was trading at in 2008 and march of 2009 at the height of market crash!

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  17. Also look at recent form 4s on OSIR.

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  18. http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/default.aspx?cik=1360886

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  19. hmm...seems the insiders are very happy with company direction

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  20. creditguy,

    OSIR has ton of patents and also lots of investment by Department of Defense, at the height of the market crash in 2008 and 2009 this was a $18 stock, the earnings are good and float is low, now with all that radiation issues it just going to add fuel to the fire, 52 week low is around 5.40. This is a good stock to have. Insiders have been buying shares as well.

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  21. OSIR also has $224.7 million contract including purchase options from the United States Department of Defense (DoD) to develop and stockpile Prochymal

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  22. http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=OSIR

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  23. From WSJ Op Ed re reactors

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704893604576198421680697248.html

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  24. palmerjoe,

    ok...but are you shorting it right now.....:)
    your bank roll is larger than mine...they already took out everyone who bought at open today...

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  25. kli,

    look at stoxline link above for price technical analysis on OSIR, I agree the worst case scenario is around $5, the best case scenario is higher than 9.50, the float and outstanding shares are low which means it does not take much buying pressure to get this puppy going, yesterday low was at 6 and today exploded to 7.35, now it backfilled to 6.50 which was the closing price yesterday. I like the fundamentals and trading patterns as well in this one.

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  26. creditguy,

    Do not worry about what I do with OSIR, focus on fundamentals and overall analysis on this one for buy and hold till resistance is hit, this is a good company and the downside is only a buck from where it is now.

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  27. HB,

    URZ is just fine playing both side of the coin, I gave you 2.65 for gap trade, heheeeee!

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  28. kli,

    Hope you took your profits on SLW, pounding it past couple of days, I like this market.

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  29. MMs are going after the margin calls and stop limits, pound it baby, let's get those inflated pigs down to earth!

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  30. holdin a small core on SLW.....hoping it gets crushed........will add then

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  31. DJ,

    Your GMXR is holding around $5 which is good.

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  32. Mr. Kli, any thoughts on ATPG, i know you have played that name. it has dropped quite abit, you think it has a target to 14?

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  33. Homer,

    Excellent,refreshing WSJ article.

    Seems as though I saw endless videos of cars, trucks, boats, etc pummeled into the seas, lands, & waterways of Japan. Who knows how many barrels of toxic petroleum-based products as well as other toxins that are now mixed into the water & land of Japan.

    But, let's not anger "Big Oil", let's instead focus only on the Nuclear problem.

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  34. And I hear more positive news coming form the region re reactors, hoping its true.

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  35. I own ATPG and added very tiny today....willl watch for the bottom buyin with VOLUME...

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  36. Kenny & jim,

    Do you guys short the market or like Kli who still does not have an account that allows him to short individual stocks?

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  37. Anyone have an opinion of coal or even solar stocks at this point in time? I figure a little more stable than uranium.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/258224-japan-will-turn-to-these-3-coal-companies?source=yahoo

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  38. Joe...kenny and jim are in the hospital with chest pain and diarrhea

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  39. Homer lets see how things settle but you can take some positions in stocks like JASO...I trade them

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  40. Homer,

    Solar stocks are just reaction to uranium, solar is not going to be a viable alternative to oil or natural Gas, it's short term trade to upside, once the reaction is done I will short the heck out of solar.

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  41. kli,

    What did you do to them ( Jim & kenny) to cause them pain?

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  42. It could also be Red's fault since he kept talking about ALPO and forced Jim and Kenny to buy rotten alpo that sent them to the hospital.

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  43. Homer keep your eyes on HNR ATPG HERO NBR

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  44. They don't like the volatility it makes them nauseated

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  45. I saving the good Alpo to share with Kli in 2012 before it expires. Feds POMO has stabilized market prices. Other shortages will be critical semiconductor components as very detailed by the media.

    Long term vacations out of Japan will probably be big too. Destination points like Yellowstone Park or Las Vegas with all you can eat buffets and cheap hotels. Well at least until the West Coast quake.

    After a puke on the daily, not there yet, watch for sectors that reconstruction or at least essentials to play the bounce. Real time companies only nothing that may have a product in 3-5 years.

    As for the Fuku reactors, stabilize and then entombing is probably the safest bet at this point. Problem is getting enough of the specialty concrete into the area. You are losing too much trained personnel p issing on the fuel rods hoping they cool down.

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  46. kli,

    Red is a savvy businessman, when he says, "saving the good Alpo to share with Kli in 2012 before it expires", he means for at least $25 a can, there is no such thing as free meal.

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  47. Joe Red.....both of you are familiar with yuuki...do you REALLY think any of those guys are going to make it out of those hell hole reactors????? THE MOST stoich culture I have ever witnessed!!!!!

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  48. Joe I had Kli TO look at me, he said go to the hospital. All they said was that Kli, gave me the chest pains and the diarrhea and stay away from him, just listen to you. Sold all my shares or URZ (3000) today , that I pick up yesterday. Ken is still at hospital, but he is going to be okay Thanks he he he he

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  49. JOE I like OSIR , for the long term, it looks good at this price. Thanks

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  50. HNR haaard off the 20ma pierce......rooollling GERRREEEEEN.....

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  51. Hey Kli - thanx, as always, when I get a chance. ;-)

    Joe, looking more at coal than solar, agreed solar would be short term. The alternative to the alternative. PCX, CLD.

    Also, I thought it was understood red had every intention of charging market or slightly below in 2012.

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  52. short covering into the close ...HL is turning foching GREEEN....are u kidding me???

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  53. Joe Ken and I do not have the tools to short a stock. I just pick up OSIR at the low for the day, will sell it as soon as I can make a good profit. THANKS

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  54. joe
    not making much noise but have plucked uec and urz for some nice money working like a rented mule putting the internet in for my loving customers jim got out of the hospital and has been leading the way kli cant make the kinda money jim puts in my pocket what did kli do with his uec so sorry

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  55. regroup by the dip in the am or sell the rip either way battle plan for next few days is to expect further selling...then again.....i could be wrong....hehhehe....as Rahm said ...neva let a good crisis go to waste.

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  56. Jim,

    OSIR has a very good deal going with Genzym which is a $19B company ans trades at $75 a share ( GENZ). Osiris and Genzyme inked their deal for development of Prochymal as well as Osiris’ stem cell-based arthritis therapy, Chondrogen, in 2008. Under the terms of the deal Osiris received $130 million up front and could be due to receive another $1.25 billion in milestone payments. The firm retains commercialization rights to Prochymal and Chondrogen in the U.S. and Canada. Genzyme’s rights span the rest of the world, except Japan, where JCR Pharmaceuticals holds rights to Prochymal for the treatment of hematological malignancies .

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  57. kli,

    look at what these guys have been up to ( OSIR), as a doctor you will find it interesting, I like to see stock drop to 5 so you can really buy:

    http://www.genengnews.com/gen-news-highlights/osiris-restarts-phase-iii-prochymal-trial-in-crohn-disease-following-interim-analysis/81243389/

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  58. The BUSHIDO is alive and well in japan, that mentality does not change.

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  59. Here's one such story...

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html

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  60. Homer,

    No surprises, I have worked with them extensively in the past and their level of dedication and loyalty is awesome.

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